This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Homebuilder Confidence Crashes By Most On Record

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Surprise! For the 3rd time in the last 20 years, homebuilder sentiment got way ahead of reality... and as the February NAHB data shows, reality is starting to catch up to them. The NAHB sentiment index crashed by its most on record in Feb, missed expectations by its most on record, and fell back below the crucial 50-level, as it starts to play cyclical catch-down to home sales and mortgage apps. Think it's the weather? nope...It's across every region (with The West dropping the most on record - hot dry weather?)

 

Yet again hope fades...

 

Biggest miss and biggest drop on record....

 

A 10-sigma wobble!!!!

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Wobble Hobble Doe! What numbers will appear in my Shoe!

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:22 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

Bullish!!!

(What isn't?)

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

I'm shocked!!  

You mean the 30 somethings living with parents and drowning in student loan debt aren't rushing out to buy a brand new house, furniture, law mowers and a dog??

And I suppose they're not signing up for Obama care either!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

They're all buying bitcoins hand over fist...

like that guy who used to pump bitcoin on ZH for a while... fone foone phone... something...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

starfone??    fartsone??   fonerats??  

Yeah, something like that..

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:07 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"There has never been a better time to buy a home!"

Would somebody PLEASE make me an offer on my Mom's old place?  (It's been on the market 8 months and I've had a best offer of $50K under my already-lowered-three-times asking price.  Currently $200K, originally started at $225K.  Best offer to date: $150K plus help.  Ouch.).

I swear you can't go wrong.  Deal of a lifetime.  You'll be kicking yourself if you don't jump on this right away.  

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:52 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If the new housing market is deteriorating, along with the existing housing market, A&E is going to have to start running 2007 repeats of "Flip This House," starring Armando Montelongo.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:58 | Link to Comment Blano
Blano's picture

Take the K off the end and will talk.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 14:02 | Link to Comment thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

You'll have a bidding war with me, but I can't go higher than 175 bucks

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Some builders are moving along with signing off on my mother's place.  Years ago some amateurs tried doing a package deal to sell off this and other adjoining properties, it failed miserably.  I'd stated that the chance wouldn't come along again, but, much to my surprise there's yet another attempt, AND, the builders have offerred up even MOAR! (shy of 1 mill).  Big chunk of change has already been put down, in which case they're pretty serious about it.  The house will be torn down, it's the property that's the value (just under 3 acres).

It's great for my mother, but I can't help but feel too close to the insanity here...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

That's right......because this is old data.  Which means the worst is behind us.

Happy Days are ALREADY here again......we just don't know it yet.

(ahem......yes.....yes I WOULD like some Valium and Lithium with my egg white omelet.....thank you very much.)

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Winter weather might not slow housing, but a $20 billion a month taper might be having some effect...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Buy a home now! You don't want to miss out on record high prices that will crater in a few years leaving you financially ruined for the rest of your life.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:25 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

lol.  been there, done that.  i have no plans to move.  which is good because i cant.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Ulterior
Ulterior's picture

Not to worry - americans build home from straw anyway. When did you stoped using brick and mortar?

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:23 | Link to Comment wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

i blame christie and he new about a bridge and he kicked me in da nutz

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:24 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

When did you stoped using brick and mortar?

When the builders saw that they could juice the profit margin a couple of percent by building with straw, as you say.

As long as the house looks new and shiny, the buyers don't care.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Hobo Sapien
Hobo Sapien's picture

Worked with RE agents for a now deceased corp. taking panoramic photos of RE listings(CA). 2007-8. Great job while it lasted. But as someone who has also worked in construction/painting, I have to say the McMansions I saw were kind of pathetic, and that was most of the business - rats escaping the sinking ship. Foamcore Dorian pillars, un-cured cement foundatios, etc., I dealt with owners in over their heads trying to sell at the top.

Most of the occupied units, if I met the owner, they seemed to be small business owners heading out of state. Kind of strange dealing with them. Most of the talk was spin, how this was going to be great, opportunities, etc.

The unoccuppied properties seemed like investments/rentals mostly - they were usually trashed. One million $ property I was tasked with with photoshopping in carpet, because when I shot it, the carpet had all been torn out as irretrievably filthy. Beautiful kitchen, 5 bedrooms, 20 ft ceiling in the living room, wall of glass, right on the edge of the golf course. Carpet so gross I never even got to see it, lol.

So yeah - the higher end properties I saw were built of straw. Google "Rancho Murieta."

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:45 | Link to Comment saltedGold
saltedGold's picture

" I have to say the McMansions I saw were kind of pathetic, and that was most of the business - rats escaping the sinking ship. Foamcore Dorian pillars, un-cured cement foundatios, etc."

I know what you're talking about!  I did hvac work about 7-8 years ago on some "high end" homes.  Built to minimum specifications with minimum materials of the lowest grade.  I'm sorry, if I'm paying $2+ million for a home, at the very least put down a quality plywood subflooring, not CDX.  But seeing the home finished, they sure look nice once everything is covered up.  Too bad they have that hollow feel to them for some reason :)

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

CDX IS plywood.  Perhaps you meant OSB? (being that I'm trailer trash and all that's how I roll- OSB [have a good roof and maintain- it's a compromise so I could have useful land (plus on-property energy for heating, and abundant water]; and, as my wife says: "cheap is a cardboard box")

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 16:44 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I've NEVER witnessed NOR IMAGINED houses built so shittily as the ones I saw in Phoenix, Sacramento, Las Vegas (Henderson), etc.

Chicken wire supported by 2 x 2 1/2s" studs (I only barely joke) with stucco poured over it on a defectively poured slab and the shittiest ass windows to ever be slapped aside a residential structure.

I could punch a hole through the side of those shitboxes if I wanted to gain entry. It was a sight to behold. Most of them were leaning, too, not being in square. They should call them lean toos.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Hobo Sapien
Hobo Sapien's picture

I soooo know what you mean. But I think I kind of get it now. McMansions were in large part marketing devices for the owner - showrooms/psyops. Not castles to live in forever and pass to one's heirs.

My bro-in-law has one of these; on a street too narrow to have cars parked at the curb both sides, huge house with a backyard just big enough for a gas grill and a couple of chairs. Open floor plan, with an entertainment room w/ surround sound, xbox/kinect, huge plasmascreen; amazing kitchen w/ granite counters. I think developers sussed the market and made good kitchens and the rest just big. (and cheap. It doesn't need to last, onwards and upwards!) It's more a place to entertain clients than a home, is what I'm saying. McMansions are prefab party houses.

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 22:36 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Toll Brothers pretty much invented the devoid-of-any-quality shitbox McMansion, and then Pulte, D.R. Horton, etc. took up the strategy thereafter.

These houses are so sloppily put together by the most hack of trades that boggles the mind. Even the things they try to incorporate that would ordinarily be of some value, like Tyvek, becomes useless as they rip & tear holes in the shit everywhere during and after installation.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 05:49 | Link to Comment Hobo Sapien
Hobo Sapien's picture

*Morgan Freeman voice*

Now I know you'se upset, an we all unnerstans;but here's what I'm sayin'.

It's more a place to entertain clients than a home, is what I'm saying. McMansions are prefab party houses.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Please don't give straw a bad rap (no, I didn't down-arrow you).  I was going to build a straw bale home- they're nothing to laugh about: great thermal and accustic properties; AND, they can be more fire resistant than most new construction homes (and old too)- it's the finish that provides the buffer, and, well, compacted straw doesn't like to just go up in flames, which is why fire departments like to train with bales of straw- they smolder a lot.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You mean the part time McBurger world workers aren't out buying up new homes en masse? Go figure....

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:29 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Soon to be unemployed as automation engineering will make them all redundant.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Lot of folks may soon be automated, including mid-managers and other "professionals."

The top 20% should be OK.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 15:59 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Have to wonder what the corporations are thinking when it's these very people that are the primary consumers...  Death Spiral...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

Someone didn't get the memo here in Henderson, NV.

A major public builder just started grading raw land for new homes.

The Las Vegas valley already has 40,000 existing vacant homes and thousands of graded raw lots available for sale.

I bet a friend that this developer won't ultimely build the houses...he wouldn't take the bet.

Developers...always the eternal optimists.

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:10 | Link to Comment InflammatoryResponse
InflammatoryResponse's picture

really?  40k empty homes?  WOW.

 

 that really seems like a huge number to me.

 

I guess that doesn't include empty rentals?

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 20:44 | Link to Comment Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

"...a study from the University of Nevada at Las Vegas show some 40,000 homes are vacant, or 8% of the metropolitan area’s single-family housing stock."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-04/las-vegas-housing-8-single-fami...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Easter Island syndrome.  It's what they know, and they'll do it right up to the day that they can no longer, even if it takes everyone out with them.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

Maybe next month.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:27 | Link to Comment NoIdea
NoIdea's picture

Bad weather/good weather doesn't matter. All bad news is good news in USA Through The Looking Glass. Buy the dips!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:29 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

So since financial reality is in the toilet, consumer confidence will be seen to rise to highest levels ever now...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:30 | Link to Comment i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I would have thought it impossible to create two housing bubbles inside of ten years, but it's been done. Really unbelievable work to acheive that.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:37 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Never bet against the Fed! I'm certain they could conjure up a few more housing bubbles in the next twenty years to compliment our ever-increasing unemployed or underemployed population.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:40 | Link to Comment B2u
B2u's picture

I blame it on the rain....or snow...or whatever sounds good...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwrL9MV6jSk

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:48 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Its just a glitch in the land of "All Is Well".

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I'm sure there will be lots of eager buyers trolling the burbs for real estate this spring with oil prices over $101.00bbl.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:52 | Link to Comment skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

Must be a good time to buy a house?

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:02 | Link to Comment damicol
damicol's picture

Don't be fucking stupid. What are you trying to do, Ignite the entire US economy by yourself..

 That would make obummer look good wouldn't it you daft bugger

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:55 | Link to Comment starman
starman's picture

Hey when you can live with mom and drive a new Beemer to college, whoda fuck wants a house or a taxpayer  funded healthinsurance! 

Welcome to the new American dream! Thanks to our Fuhrer.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Frank -THE COIN -
Frank -THE COIN -'s picture

Caliornia has Mamoth Mountain for year round skiing. Maybe seeing a picture of it on TV affected the West Region.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:01 | Link to Comment j.tennquist
j.tennquist's picture

If the NAHB admits that it is bad, you can be sure it's worse.  

But then... we already know that, don't we? 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:07 | Link to Comment trilliontroll
Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Time for that cunt Yellen to pay for my fucking mortgage!!!

 

Start writing checks bitch!!!!!

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:06 | Link to Comment Ex Cathedra
Ex Cathedra's picture

Off your meds?

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:18 | Link to Comment USofAzzDownWeGo
USofAzzDownWeGo's picture

maybe my ryl $40 puts won't expire worthless this friday that i bought a week ago for .35c ..... wishful thinking

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:32 | Link to Comment TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

...as we make new all time highs on our way to even higher all time highes

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:52 | Link to Comment afton
afton's picture

We have some unbelievable...and I mean unbelievable...deals here in San Diego...

http://www.trulia.com/property/3145489161-6905-Wisconsin-Ave-La-Mesa-CA-...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Oxbo Rene
Oxbo Rene's picture

Chit man ! ! !
I'll get a few of them ! ! ! !

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Spungo
Spungo's picture

New reality show: demolish houses that have never been occupied then show the film to homeless people to get their reaction.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 14:04 | Link to Comment thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Prices going down -- great time to buy

Prices going up -- great time to buy

Price going stratospheric -- better get in before it's too late

Real estate touts are really bottom of the societal barrel

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 15:54 | Link to Comment Ewtman
Tue, 02/18/2014 - 16:12 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"While inventory can play a role in housing prices on a local basis, it is a symptom, not a cause of demand, and credit availability is always the driver in the broader market."

Unfortunately this is missing the big FACT that the banks have helped prop up demand and keep prices elevated by sitting on a ton of properties.  I'd state that inventory manipulation, along with interest rate manipulation, IS more than a symptom and is actually a big part of the underlying strategy.

"As you can see, housing prices have only declined about halfway down to the levels where I expect they will eventually stabilize."

"Stabilize," for how long?  Keep in mind it all comes down to affordability, and, well, job participation rates are down and to the right, with no end in sight.

Economies of scale in reverse.  People have no idea how crushing this will be...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 00:00 | Link to Comment earl swagger
earl swagger's picture

Right on the money with the inventory dumps. Judicial foreclosure timeframe to final disposition huge driver uneven dump REO.

Dumping REO at the mark vs current market price Agency &TBTFs kills move up buyer willing to list current home.

Subcontractors & TBTF,s distracted with 800 unit new apartment in outs. Oversupply rent units will destroy the FTHB "own vs rent" equation.

Clearing REO early & often at market (180 days marketing time) should start the recovery, not trail.

Rates number 6 ,top 5 demand drivers home buyers.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!