The Idiocy Of "Blaming It On The Weather" Exposed

Tyler Durden's picture

This morning's catastrophic drop in the National Association of Hope Home Builders sentiment index has rapidly been spun as due to the weather... of course, makes perfect sense, right? What would happen if these drops were actually real fundamentals? If the status quo, the "common knowledge" was shown to be full of shit (once again). Well, riddle us this Batman... if weather was to blame, then why did the "West" region plunge the most? In fact, why did The West plunge the most on record? Too much sunny dry weather not good for sales? In fact, even the entirely indpendent provider of real estate research Trulia said that weather is not to blame...


The West dropped the most on record - we assume that warm, dry weather is detrimental to home-buying in some way?


And kindly explain how the weather was the driver when The West dropped the most of all the regions... (West -14, NorthEast -8, MidWest -9, South -7)



And here's what Trulia told everyone...

Winter Weather is a Wobble, not a Hobble


Here’s what the weather wobble means for interpreting the forthcoming January construction and sales data. Because the weather had a slight negative impact on housing activity, flat month-over-month numbers for construction or sales would mean that other market forces were strong enough to offset the negative effect of bad weather. But if housing activity fell month-over-month in January by more than the predicted weather effect, don’t pin the entire drop on the cold.


That means if existing home sales fall by 5% month-over-month in January, for example, then only a bit of decline (1.1%) should be blamed on weather. The regional patterns in housing activity will also help reveal whether weather mattered. The impact of January’s weather on starts should be most negative in the Northeast and Midwest, so if starts decline most in the South and West, then weather’s not the culprit. Finally, housing activity tends to bounce partway back the month after bad weather (unless that next month is unusually bad, too). Rain and cold don’t last forever, and neither do their effects on housing.


Therefore, bad winter weather will only delay some construction and sales activity, rather than make it disappear. Severe winter weather may cause housing activity to wobble, but cold, rain, and snow won’t hobble the housing recovery.



But sure, as opposed to face up to reality, keep blaming the weather...

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Grande Tetons's picture

Punxutawney Phil saw his shadow this year....6 more weeks of Bullshit!! Maybe, more! 

flacon's picture

The great "dust bowl" drought was also blamed for the "great [banker] depression". Just know that the REAL cause will never be blamed; ever! Not only is the real cause a matter of National Security, it IS THE PURPOSE of National Security - to protect the ponzi is the purpose. 

boogerbently's picture

Where's the chart showing home sales/prices falling as % rates increased?

duo's picture

how about a chart showing home sales vs Obamacare enrollment?  Since Obamacare will cost you another house payment, then you won't be able to afford that house.

johnQpublic's picture

how o you sell a house when only sand comes out the shower head?

olenumbersix's picture

fyi - I signed onto the unafordable care web sight, and for me and the wife it was 3 times our house payment.

yogibear's picture

"6 more weeks of Bullshit!! Maybe, more!"

Next it's the Spring thawing and the sever storms. It won't/can't stop until all indicators are up again.

observer007's picture

Latest on Ukraine

Ukrainian protesters hurled petrol bombs, fireworks and stones at riot police on Tuesday, and at least nine people died!q=ukraine&t=text

graneros's picture

Shit's gettin' real! You know the govt is gonna come down like a ton of bricks now.

hangemhigh77's picture

That's NOTHING compared to what the government is doing here in the US!!  Millions are dying from being assaulted at McDonald/s, Dunkin Donuts, Taco Bell, Burger King, etc.  It's a slaughter.  Plus there were millions of robberies at Best Buy, WalMart, Mobil, and Macys.  Drugs continue to kill millions when greedy doctors prescribe millions of psychotropic drugs designed to get you a little high but at the same time make you believe you can fly off buildings and stop speeding bullets with your teeth.  And for those that don't engage in any of these state sponsored killings we give you the cops.  The cops are beating the shit out of anyone they can, but no one that might fight back they get free McDonald's coupons.  So the revolution here isn't being supressed it's being avoided and diverted.  And the most egregious assault to date on the people by the government to shut them up?  I give you "Dancing with the Tards, errrr I mean Stars"

IridiumRebel's picture

Suns out here in Southern Ohio so I celebrated by buying three 65" inch TeeVeeZ and liquidating my PMs at the bottom to BTFATH in stawks. I'll keep you posted after I get done watching a couple days worth of netflix.

superflex's picture

It's nice to see and feel the sun in SW Ohio.

Let's melt all this snow and ice so we can begin the spring flooding season.

Bullish on sandbags and trash pumps.

IridiumRebel's picture

....maybe they'll get lucky in Kentucky! Trailers float sometimes.

skwid vacuous's picture

must be hard to run a meth cooker when your trailer is pitching and yawing...

skwid vacuous's picture

dont forget to Yelp some local restaurant reviews, then buy a walmart chicken for dinner

hangemhigh77's picture

Go to Sam's $4.88 for a bigger chicken!!  More GMO fed Chinese chickens.  

Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Chinkins? Maybe some fried Chinkins?

LMAOLORI's picture


And then when you get sick YIKES! (found buried at the very end of the article is this little tidbit.


American businesses and F.D.A. officials are just as concerned about the quality of drugs coming out of China, but the F.D.A.'s efforts to increase inspections there have so far been frustrated by the Chinese government.

“China is the source of some of the largest counterfeit manufacturing operations that we find globally,” said John P. Clark, Pfizer’s chief security officer, who added that Chinese authorities were cooperative.

Using its new revenues, the F.D.A. tried to bolster its staff in China in February 2012. But the Chinese government has so far failed to provide the necessary visas despite an announced agreement in December 2013 during a visit by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., said Erica Jefferson, an F.D.A. spokeswoman.

The United States has become so dependent on Chinese imports, however, that the F.D.A. may not be able to do much about the Chinese refusal. The crucial ingredients for nearly all antibiotics, steroids and many other lifesaving drugs are now made exclusively in China.

Stoploss's picture

Jan, just come out with 140, as all bets are off now.

Duc888's picture



It's not idiocy, it's genius.  They need to find a way to monetize the weather so they can implement another tax on the serfs.

LMAOLORI's picture



The fact that Blythe Masters was involved in the carbon credit derivatives scam should have given gloBULL warming people something to think about but for them its some kind of religion and they lost all common sense.

Lumberjack's picture

God even has a sense of humor...


Kerry Burnishes Green Badge in Asia as Volcano Disrupts Trip

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said global warming is as big a threat as terrorism in a speech in Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of coal for power plants, seeking to burnish his credential as a climate champion before deciding on the proposed Keystone XL pipeline project…

…The speech came against the backdrop of the eruption of the Mount Kelud volcano that disrupted air travel in the region and forced the cancellation of Kerry’s planned meeting today with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

“We’ve seen here in Asia how extreme weather events can disrupt world trade,” Kerry said to an audience of Indonesian students and business leaders. “In today’s globalized economy, the entire world feels it.”




For Extreme Weather, 2013 Was an Unextreme Year


Weather has been dominating the news cycle the past several days, as much of the U.S. has suffered through record-breaking cold. But while it might seem as if we’ve all been sucked into a polar vortex of weather news, 2013 was punctuated by coverage of major natural disasters like Supertyphoon Haiyan in November, massive floods in India in June and the Category 5 tornadoes in Moore, Oklahoma in May. No wonder so many people felt that extreme weather was on the rise.

Except that wasn’t the case—at least not in 2013. The reinsurance company Munich Re came out with its annual assessment of natural disasters, and found that 2013 was an unusually quiet year. Catastrophes like floods and storms claimed more than 20,000 lives around the world, and caused more than $125 billion in damages. While that’s clearly a lot—and the number of deaths from disasters rose over 2012—both figures are well below the 106,000 in deaths and $184 billion in losses that were experienced on average over the past decade. Though the total number of loss-causing catastrophes—880—was above the average over the past 10 years, the damages in both financial and human terms was less. “There was no large-scale natural catastrophe event in 2013,” said Carl Hedde, head of risk accumulation for Munich Re.

Oldwood's picture

If its not weather's fault then it has to be God's fault, and if that is true shouldn't we consider sacrificing a virgin conservative or something? I mean we must ACT! Someone has to do something, right? We can't just sit here waiting for the weather to change or God to have a change of heart. We need more over-priced low quality homes to keep our illegal immigration population from getting up and going home.

The one disaster we cannot afford is for our illegals to go home and Americans forced to get a job doing what we all know they are too good for.

LMAOLORI's picture



Don't even get me started on the illegal aliens who get FREE HEALTHCARE cause it's going to really get ugly then!

hangemhigh77's picture

They should have a shit tax. They put a shit meter on your toilet.  

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Woe to the roadsides if a shit tax were imposed. They'd be blobbing up in no time, Chinese citizenism style.

akak's picture

Let 1,000,000,000 roadside brown baby Maos bloom!

hangemhigh77's picture

I guess each person would have to have a "ShitChip" installed up their ass then.

akak's picture

And they can pay their tax in ShitCoin.

LMAOLORI's picture




STOP IT!  They don't need any more ideas (sh*t tax:).  Rather then viewing 1984 as a precautionary tale they used it as a roadmap.

Cdad's picture

"But sure, as opposed to face up to reality, keep blaming the weather..."

...and direct all financial news coverage dancing.

AmCockerSpaniel's picture

If the little people know the truth, it makes it harder to dup them on WS. It's all about $$$

ziggy59's picture

The whole system is idiocy in motion..

The roulette wheel likes 'weather'...probably has equivalent of only one space NOT weather...

insanelysane's picture

Snowing like a bastahd out there right now.  Wonder how the ice cream man is doing this winter?

DirtyWilly's picture

Don't worry, this is bullish!  Buy more stocks, DOW up 300 by 4PM!

skwid vacuous's picture

West= people are scared of the drought,

NorthEast & Midwest = Frozenomics (hat tip to CNBS)

Southeast = they were all stuck on I75 for several days

Everything will come roaring back in March, or maybe April, definitely by the summer...?

q99x2's picture

The gold is gone. The ones that have the proof as to what happened are being whacked.

And wouldn't you know it. Here comes Bitcoin to the rescue.

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wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Yeah but when it stops snowing in the states between Virginia and Rhode Island the economy is going to take off like a rocket...right... like that shit is going to happen.

carbonmutant's picture

The trick to being a Democrat is having something to blame when things don't go according to plan...

graneros's picture

That's part of their con.  Somebody tell me the time you heard a politician accept responsibilty for their failed prorgrams.  Actually when has a poitician ever taken responsibillity for any fricking thing?  Number one rule in politics, or any govt job for that matter, is "it is always somebody else's or something (weather, some other party, jews or name the race's) fault, ALWAYS.

Oldwood's picture

I'm pretty sure they have an App for that.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

There is no recession/depression/down-turn/badness of any kind for the top 20%; in the east/west/north/south in the summer or winter.

The recession of for the survival-of-the-fittest losers.

Oldwood's picture

When the going gets tough, the rich take winter break to go skiing. They are doing their part to "stimulate" the economy.

skwid vacuous's picture

The mall was empty last sunday except for the Hasidim and their little monsters- where the fuck do they get all their $ from they can't all be diamond "merchants"?

hangemhigh77's picture

Do you live in the Hudson Valley?  They get their money from US taxes.  The government gives them money for votes. last time I looked Kirylas Joel got 24 million for a handicapped school with 23 handicapped kids.  They scam everything and don't pay any taxes.

unplugged's picture

Well, riddle us this Batman... if weather was to blame, then why did the "West" region plunge the most? In fact, why did The West plunge the most on record? Too much sunny dry weather not good for sales?

A:  The weather was soo good in the West that people delayed or put-off home buying plans to enjoy the rare winter treat - a day at the beach, biking, hiking, picnicing, etc.  

Riddle solved, Boy Wonder.