China Training For "Short, Sharp War" With Japan, US Navy Warns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the last year, China has increased the military activity and actions in the South China Sea around the so-called Nine Dash Line — China’s expansive claim into the region which is in conflict with several other international claims.

China's Nine-Dash Line

 

As USNI reports, Capt. James Fannell, deputy chief of staff intelligence and information operations for PACFLEET, notes that while China has long trained for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan during military exercises but has expanded its training to include a similar attack on Japanese holdings in the East China Sea. He concludes, "the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even a southern Ryukyu [islands]."

 

Via USNI,

As part of China’s Mission Action 2013 exercise — a massive exercise between the all branches of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) — the military trained for taking the Senkaku Islands, said Capt. James Fannell, deputy chief of staff intelligence and information operations for PACFLEET.

 

 

View China’s Training Plan in a larger map

 

 

 

...

 

“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross military region enterprise — Mission Action 2013,” Fannell said at the West 2014 conference on Feb. 13 in San Diego, Calif.

 

[We] concluded that the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even a southern Ryukyu [islands] — as some of their academics say.”

 

...

 

“As a senior U.S. government official recently stated, there is growing concern that China’s pattern of behavior in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assert control of the area contained in the so-called 9-dash line despite the objections of its neighbors, and despite the lack of any explanation or apparent basis under international law.” Fannell said.

 

He then detailed a series of what he called aggressive actions taken by China against its neighbors over the past year. Some of those actions, including combat drills in the south Philippine Sea were described as China’s “protection of maritime rights.”

 

“By the way, protection of maritime rights is a Chinese euphemism for coerce seizure of coastal rights of China’s neighbors,” Fannell said.

 

...

 

Tensions in the South and East China Seas have deteriorated with the Chinese Coast Guard playing the role of antagonist, harassing China’s neighbors while PLA Navy ships, their protectors, (make) port calls throughout the region promising friendship and cooperation.”

 

...

 

Fannell’s assessment of the Chinese lies seemingly in contrast to American efforts to forge close military-to-military ties with the country.

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Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:10 | 4453030 glaucon was right
glaucon was right's picture

Hm, if I remember correctly before WWI everyone expected a "short,sharp war"...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:12 | 4453035 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Iraq too. "Mission Accomplished"...rofl.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:24 | 4453077 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Once the shooting starts, all plans go out the window.

 

History tells us this.  Let's use the Cuban missle crises as an example and warning, where US Generals were demanding a short sharp strike.   At the time what was unknown was that Russia had 157 tactical nukes ready to go on the island.   

 

157.

 

This story told by Def. Sec. Mcnamara (who found out much later) in the 'Fog of War'.

 

There is a lesson here somewhere.  Especially when everyone 'assumes' that japan does not hold any tactical nuclear weapons.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:29 | 4453128 Cow
Cow's picture

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:50 | 4453236 therover
therover's picture

Mike is kooky, and his stand up performance is something to be seen.

But that statement is one hell of a good one.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:26 | 4453402 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

japan should let them invade the homeland

maybe the chinese can fix that fukushima mess

 

edit:biblically speaking, WW3 nees to involve the chinese in the mid east so we need to get this started somewhere

 

what better place than here, what better time than now

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:56 | 4453536 0b1knob
Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:04 | 4453570 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy"

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:46 | 4454125 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Sounds a lot like Japan's in and out plan with Pearl Harbor. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:10 | 4454250 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

check the ~mccullum memo

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:49 | 4455592 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

I do believe I see my stolen bass boat at 3 o'clock, just off center screen.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:49 | 4456452 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy"

 

Napoleon, Battle of Austerlitz

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:50 | 4456453 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

the thing who make a good general become a really great one,

is implementation of plans after contact with enemy.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:38 | 4454619 Analyse2
Analyse2's picture

@0b1knob

Nice book. 

WW1 was really a suicide for Europe, and France paid the higher price.

The casualties France suffered in WWI as a percentage of their population and total mobilized are staggering, representing a demographic disaster of incomparable scale.

- 1,697,800 dead,

- 4,266,000 wounded (of whom 1.5 million were permanently maimed)

- 537,000 made prisoner or missing

In total 73% of the 8,410,000 men mobilized (for a population of 40 million).

This also means that 60% of men between the ages of 18 and 28 died or were permanently maimed.

You can have an idea of what these figures woud represent for the present population of the US: 

- 13,412,000 dead

- 33,701,400 wounded (of whom 11,850,000 permanently maimed)

- 4,242,000 made prisoner or missing

Can you imagine US reaction to casualties on that scale?

And the French DID NOT SURRENDER Mr Jay Leno (your stupid jokes are really not very funny) …

Most amazing is that the totally ignorant US generation now see the French as cowards because of the avalanche of neo-cons propaganda and silly jokes after the firm and sensible refusal of the French to join America in Irak, in 2003.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:52 | 4456454 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

i have to agree with you.

USA would have never stood this casualty ratio.

They go in the streets protesting for 5k casualties in Iraq. LOL they're pussies compared to french

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:56 | 4453537 SDShack
SDShack's picture

China will simply cover the Fukishima buildings and property with porous concrete, then whitewash the entire place with lead based white paint, and call it "Fixed".

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:39 | 4454094 Martel
Martel's picture

China is still practising amphibious landings on sandy beaches, even though Taiwan's Western coast and Senkaku islands are anything but flat. These Chinese old-fashioned and stiff training and tactics favor Japan/Taiwan. China could win only by a devastating first attack, and in that case they would lose politically.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:56 | 4454184 Yenbot
Yenbot's picture

China could spark a devastating counterstrike by a devastating first attack, and in that case they would lose.

There, fixed your grammar for ya'.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:17 | 4454275 Martel
Martel's picture

Only the U.S. could manage a 'devastating counterattack', and I'm not really sure the U.S. would be willing to do that. Especially as China has some economic leverage on the U.S. More probable scenario would be, once the dust settles, the U.S. would broker a peace between China and Japan. Perhaps China would pull out of Senkakus, and the relieved Japan and the U.S. would agree to certain Chinese demands on the South China Sea. This would throw Philippines and Vientnam under the bus, but nobody cares for them anyway.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:31 | 4454347 August
August's picture

>>>... China would pull out of Senkakus, and the relieved Japan and the U.S. would agree to certain Chinese demands on the South China Sea.

Yet again, Charles has it right.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:46 | 4454655 Analyse2
Analyse2's picture

Vietnam will be a fishbone  - hard to swallow ...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:26 | 4455959 PT
PT's picture

I know (close enough to) nothing about China or Japan, but can you answer this?  

Let us pretend that China invaded Japan and wiped out every Japanese person and colonised Japan with Chinese.  For how long would the "Chinese Japan" (Chipan?) stay loyal to China?  Would the two separate?  How long before Chinese - "Chipanese" tensions appeared?

I guess that would be like tensions appearing between US - England or Australia - England, so the answer would lie in Australian or US history.  Also, I understand there is a lot of bad history and bad feeling between China and Japan so that would also skew things a bit different to US - Aust - England, hence my hypothetical "if the Chinese wiped out the Japs" to take that out of the equation.

Just looking for any thoughts on the matter. 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 09:27 | 4456794 PT
PT's picture

I'd appreciate the red arrow a lot more if it was accompanied by some intelligent words.  Sorry.  My bad again for expecting too much.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:07 | 4454236 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

We took a commie nation, flooded it with capitalism, created an even stronger commie nation while our nation became fascist.   Now that is some hope and change! 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:15 | 4453371 kralizec
kralizec's picture

People like repeating history...they always think they are smarter than the previous generation and know how to do it right the next time.

Get in on those defense stocks now, don't wait!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:59 | 4453547 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

From wiki...

 

While there are currently no known plans in Japan to produce nuclear weapons, it has been argued Japan has the technology, raw materials, and the capital to produce nuclear weapons within one year if necessary, and some analysts consider it a de facto nuclear state for this reason.[28][29] For this reason Japan is often said to be a "screwdriver's turn"[30][31] away from possessing nuclear weapons.

Significant amounts of reactor-grade plutonium are created as a by-product of the nuclear energy industry. Japan was reported in 2012 to have 9 tonnes of plutonium in Japan, enough for more than 1,000 nuclear warheads, and 35 tonnes stored in Europe.[32][33] It has constructed the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant, which could produce further plutonium.[32] Japan also possesses an indigenous uranium enrichment plant[34][29] which could hypothetically be used to make highly enriched uranium suitable for weapon use. Japan has also developed the M-V three-stage solid fuel rocket, somewhat similar in design to the U.S. LGM-118A Peacekeeper ICBM, giving it a missile technology base. It now has an easier-to-launch second generation solid fuel rocket, Epsilon. Japan has experience in re-entry vehicle technology (OREXHOPE-X). Toshiyuki Shikata, a government adviser and former lieutenant general, indicated that part of the rationale for the fifth M-V Hayabusa mission, from 2003 to 2010, was that the reentry and landing of its return capsule demonstrated "that Japan's ballistic missile capability is credible."[35]

It has been pointed out that as long as Japan enjoys the benefits of a "nuclear-ready" status held through surrounding countries, it will see no reason to actually produce nuclear arms, since by remaining below the threshold, albeit with the capability to cross it at short notice, Japan can expect the support of the US while posing as an equal to China and Russia.[36]

 

So yes Japan does have nukes.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:09 | 4453605 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

With all the saber-rattling, by now they probably have deliverable nukes.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:12 | 4456425 thestarl
thestarl's picture

MAD

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:36 | 4453121 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

HOME BEFORE CHRISTMASS!!!

AND REMEMBER!!

ASK NOT WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR YOUR COUNTRY
BUT WTF YOUR COUNTRY EVER DID FOR YOU!!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:49 | 4453232 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1, SD, very good...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:35 | 4453794 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Too bad almost none of the public understands what their country does TO them.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:25 | 4453412 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Well "mission" has to be defined. The mission in Afghanistan underwent mission creep. The initial rout of the and AQ from Kabul was a cakewalk, but then with the superstoopid that is do gooder international coalition warfare on the ground(NATO), things went from light and fast to bureaucratically bogged. Obama psychotically tripled down on the stupid, winning most of our casualties there for a great big preannounced less than zero result. His purpose was to demoralize the US military, which votes mostly to keep the republic intact and constitutional. Obama is about tearing that down as fast as he can pull off.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:23 | 4456436 thestarl
thestarl's picture

The US, losers when it comes down to asymmetric warfare not the valour of the US fighting man questioned here but the buffoons running the show can't be told

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:15 | 4453056 booboo
booboo's picture

according to todays standards ww1 and 2 were very short and sharp, now it's perpetual war against everyone and anyone who dares to tug on their leash.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:42 | 4453478 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

It's all relative:  Compared to America's 12 year wars in the ME, most wars seem short & sharp.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:21 | 4453087 newdoobie
newdoobie's picture

Short, Sharp, and Profitable!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:21 | 4453091 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I read the ZH article recently of China complaining about Japan retaining plutonium.  Well, WTF do they expect?  China is begging it neighbors to worry, and perhaps get together...  If I were running Russia, I would be looking at China with a very hard eye.  The last thing they should want, IMO, is Japan with plutonium nukes...

China may make a big mistake sometime soon.  They have problems ranging from the worrisome (pollution) to the catastrophic (demographics).  

Historically, China has not typically been aggressive.  Why this latest BS?  Makes no sense to a Bearing Guy.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:39 | 4453180 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Well...  China has LOTS of males 18-35 who have no prospects in finding mates (courtesy of the one child policy).   In contrast, Japan has LOTS of OLD - and getting older - people.

China comes out way ahead on this one putting its troublesome male cohort to good use.  

 

What's Japan going to do?   and THAT is the problem because the US will get sucked into whatever happens.

 

Maybe TPTB have given up on getting a full blown war going in the Middle East (God knows they've bee trying like mad to get WWIII going with Iran - and now in Syria) .  Perhaps they've moved on to the Far East......   Korea and Vietnam were nice long drrawn out (and VERY profitable) wars.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:53 | 4453244 therover
therover's picture

Males 18-35 incinerate just as fast as older males, when the mushroom clouds appear.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:09 | 4453603 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Storming the beaches of Japan, and occupying Japanese cities?  Thats called being 'put to good use'?

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:07 | 4455909 PT
PT's picture

That's the idea.  Kill two birds ...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:58 | 4453274 V in PA
V in PA's picture

"because the US will get sucked into whatever happens."

 

The US will willing jump at the opportunity to make some money off a China vs. Japan conflict. Hell they may even give it the little push it needs to get started.

 

The US is the greatest weapons manufacturer the world has ever seen. War is what we do. Resources are what we take. Our National Anthem is about war. We do not get sucked into war. We start it.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:41 | 4453192 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Lots of chatter here about USA fabricating a war to distract from economic problems....... what about the Yellow Menance? Maybe they need to jump start their economy.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:11 | 4453619 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

China's economy is in much bigger trouble than ours.  I agree that China may be raising the volume to distract their people from their economic problems.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:53 | 4453883 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

China's economy may be a house of fiat cards like ours but they don't have the massive social/welfare obligations the US has.

It's the difference between getting pneumonia when you are 25 and getting pneumonia when you are 95.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:06 | 4453936 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

They have 900 million peasants to keep peaceful.  That's a massive social/welfare obligation we DON'T have.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:44 | 4453209 N2OJoe
N2OJoe's picture

Just like the US(or any country).

When they dump that much money into the military, everyone starts getting itchy trigger fingers. Whether the chicken came first or the egg is largely irrelevent but the two actions tend to occur together.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:45 | 4453212 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Simple, resources!!

It's the same reason, we would bitchslap Mexico back to the 17th century, if they ever tried to tell us, they have territorial rights to the Gulf of Mexico! (I hope the hilarity of the name of the fucking body of water, is not lost on the reader, while making my point)

China has billions of mouths to feed and the S China Sea is a big part of that equation!! It's always going to be the same reason going forward and it's always been the reason looking back!! Nothing Else Matters!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:07 | 4453591 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Pretty much right, but you need to expand your thinking more strategically. It's more than just physical resources, it's business resources too. I think this China/Japan conflict is just a headfake. China will never directly attack Japan, but they would use their proxy N.Korea. I predict the Norks will ratchet up the heat to boiling soon. A few gunboat incursions, another Nuke test, and maybe a balistic missle lobbed over Japan. The heat will be hotter than anything previously, and this time China will agree to step in and control the Norks... for a price. I bet the price will eventually be Taiwan. The Chinese became the world wide industrial and business power AFTER they got control of Hong Kong from the British and exploited all their world wide business contacts. They want to do the same thing with Taiwan to start the next wave of growth. N.Korea will be the leverage to make it happen. A trade off. Watch for it. It will happen before 0zer0 leaves the White Hut because everyone knows he is a pussy.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:50 | 4453234 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Why this latest BS?

Because might makes right.

Think of all the Chinese who could be employed if the Middle Kingdom were to be drafted as the World's new police department.

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