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China Training For "Short, Sharp War" With Japan, US Navy Warns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the last year, China has increased the military activity and actions in the South China Sea around the so-called Nine Dash Line — China’s expansive claim into the region which is in conflict with several other international claims.

China's Nine-Dash Line

 

As USNI reports, Capt. James Fannell, deputy chief of staff intelligence and information operations for PACFLEET, notes that while China has long trained for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan during military exercises but has expanded its training to include a similar attack on Japanese holdings in the East China Sea. He concludes, "the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even a southern Ryukyu [islands]."

 

Via USNI,

As part of China’s Mission Action 2013 exercise — a massive exercise between the all branches of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) — the military trained for taking the Senkaku Islands, said Capt. James Fannell, deputy chief of staff intelligence and information operations for PACFLEET.

 

 

View China’s Training Plan in a larger map

 

 

 

...

 

“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross military region enterprise — Mission Action 2013,” Fannell said at the West 2014 conference on Feb. 13 in San Diego, Calif.

 

[We] concluded that the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even a southern Ryukyu [islands] — as some of their academics say.”

 

...

 

“As a senior U.S. government official recently stated, there is growing concern that China’s pattern of behavior in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assert control of the area contained in the so-called 9-dash line despite the objections of its neighbors, and despite the lack of any explanation or apparent basis under international law.” Fannell said.

 

He then detailed a series of what he called aggressive actions taken by China against its neighbors over the past year. Some of those actions, including combat drills in the south Philippine Sea were described as China’s “protection of maritime rights.”

 

“By the way, protection of maritime rights is a Chinese euphemism for coerce seizure of coastal rights of China’s neighbors,” Fannell said.

 

...

 

Tensions in the South and East China Seas have deteriorated with the Chinese Coast Guard playing the role of antagonist, harassing China’s neighbors while PLA Navy ships, their protectors, (make) port calls throughout the region promising friendship and cooperation.”

 

...

 

Fannell’s assessment of the Chinese lies seemingly in contrast to American efforts to forge close military-to-military ties with the country.

 

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Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:10 | 4453030 glaucon was right
glaucon was right's picture

Hm, if I remember correctly before WWI everyone expected a "short,sharp war"...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:12 | 4453035 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Iraq too. "Mission Accomplished"...rofl.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:24 | 4453077 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Once the shooting starts, all plans go out the window.

 

History tells us this.  Let's use the Cuban missle crises as an example and warning, where US Generals were demanding a short sharp strike.   At the time what was unknown was that Russia had 157 tactical nukes ready to go on the island.   

 

157.

 

This story told by Def. Sec. Mcnamara (who found out much later) in the 'Fog of War'.

 

There is a lesson here somewhere.  Especially when everyone 'assumes' that japan does not hold any tactical nuclear weapons.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:29 | 4453128 Cow
Cow's picture

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:50 | 4453236 therover
therover's picture

Mike is kooky, and his stand up performance is something to be seen.

But that statement is one hell of a good one.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:26 | 4453402 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

japan should let them invade the homeland

maybe the chinese can fix that fukushima mess

 

edit:biblically speaking, WW3 nees to involve the chinese in the mid east so we need to get this started somewhere

 

what better place than here, what better time than now

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:56 | 4453536 0b1knob
Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:04 | 4453570 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy"

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:46 | 4454125 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Sounds a lot like Japan's in and out plan with Pearl Harbor. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:10 | 4454250 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

check the ~mccullum memo

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:49 | 4455592 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

I do believe I see my stolen bass boat at 3 o'clock, just off center screen.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:49 | 4456452 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy"

 

Napoleon, Battle of Austerlitz

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:50 | 4456453 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

the thing who make a good general become a really great one,

is implementation of plans after contact with enemy.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:38 | 4454619 Analyse2
Analyse2's picture

@0b1knob

Nice book. 

WW1 was really a suicide for Europe, and France paid the higher price.

The casualties France suffered in WWI as a percentage of their population and total mobilized are staggering, representing a demographic disaster of incomparable scale.

- 1,697,800 dead,

- 4,266,000 wounded (of whom 1.5 million were permanently maimed)

- 537,000 made prisoner or missing

In total 73% of the 8,410,000 men mobilized (for a population of 40 million).

This also means that 60% of men between the ages of 18 and 28 died or were permanently maimed.

You can have an idea of what these figures woud represent for the present population of the US: 

- 13,412,000 dead

- 33,701,400 wounded (of whom 11,850,000 permanently maimed)

- 4,242,000 made prisoner or missing

Can you imagine US reaction to casualties on that scale?

And the French DID NOT SURRENDER Mr Jay Leno (your stupid jokes are really not very funny) …

Most amazing is that the totally ignorant US generation now see the French as cowards because of the avalanche of neo-cons propaganda and silly jokes after the firm and sensible refusal of the French to join America in Irak, in 2003.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:52 | 4456454 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

i have to agree with you.

USA would have never stood this casualty ratio.

They go in the streets protesting for 5k casualties in Iraq. LOL they're pussies compared to french

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:56 | 4453537 SDShack
SDShack's picture

China will simply cover the Fukishima buildings and property with porous concrete, then whitewash the entire place with lead based white paint, and call it "Fixed".

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:39 | 4454094 Martel
Martel's picture

China is still practising amphibious landings on sandy beaches, even though Taiwan's Western coast and Senkaku islands are anything but flat. These Chinese old-fashioned and stiff training and tactics favor Japan/Taiwan. China could win only by a devastating first attack, and in that case they would lose politically.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:56 | 4454184 Yenbot
Yenbot's picture

China could spark a devastating counterstrike by a devastating first attack, and in that case they would lose.

There, fixed your grammar for ya'.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:17 | 4454275 Martel
Martel's picture

Only the U.S. could manage a 'devastating counterattack', and I'm not really sure the U.S. would be willing to do that. Especially as China has some economic leverage on the U.S. More probable scenario would be, once the dust settles, the U.S. would broker a peace between China and Japan. Perhaps China would pull out of Senkakus, and the relieved Japan and the U.S. would agree to certain Chinese demands on the South China Sea. This would throw Philippines and Vientnam under the bus, but nobody cares for them anyway.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:31 | 4454347 August
August's picture

>>>... China would pull out of Senkakus, and the relieved Japan and the U.S. would agree to certain Chinese demands on the South China Sea.

Yet again, Charles has it right.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:46 | 4454655 Analyse2
Analyse2's picture

Vietnam will be a fishbone  - hard to swallow ...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:26 | 4455959 PT
PT's picture

I know (close enough to) nothing about China or Japan, but can you answer this?  

Let us pretend that China invaded Japan and wiped out every Japanese person and colonised Japan with Chinese.  For how long would the "Chinese Japan" (Chipan?) stay loyal to China?  Would the two separate?  How long before Chinese - "Chipanese" tensions appeared?

I guess that would be like tensions appearing between US - England or Australia - England, so the answer would lie in Australian or US history.  Also, I understand there is a lot of bad history and bad feeling between China and Japan so that would also skew things a bit different to US - Aust - England, hence my hypothetical "if the Chinese wiped out the Japs" to take that out of the equation.

Just looking for any thoughts on the matter. 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 09:27 | 4456794 PT
PT's picture

I'd appreciate the red arrow a lot more if it was accompanied by some intelligent words.  Sorry.  My bad again for expecting too much.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:07 | 4454236 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

We took a commie nation, flooded it with capitalism, created an even stronger commie nation while our nation became fascist.   Now that is some hope and change! 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:15 | 4453371 kralizec
kralizec's picture

People like repeating history...they always think they are smarter than the previous generation and know how to do it right the next time.

Get in on those defense stocks now, don't wait!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:59 | 4453547 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

From wiki...

 

While there are currently no known plans in Japan to produce nuclear weapons, it has been argued Japan has the technology, raw materials, and the capital to produce nuclear weapons within one year if necessary, and some analysts consider it a de facto nuclear state for this reason.[28][29] For this reason Japan is often said to be a "screwdriver's turn"[30][31] away from possessing nuclear weapons.

Significant amounts of reactor-grade plutonium are created as a by-product of the nuclear energy industry. Japan was reported in 2012 to have 9 tonnes of plutonium in Japan, enough for more than 1,000 nuclear warheads, and 35 tonnes stored in Europe.[32][33] It has constructed the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant, which could produce further plutonium.[32] Japan also possesses an indigenous uranium enrichment plant[34][29] which could hypothetically be used to make highly enriched uranium suitable for weapon use. Japan has also developed the M-V three-stage solid fuel rocket, somewhat similar in design to the U.S. LGM-118A Peacekeeper ICBM, giving it a missile technology base. It now has an easier-to-launch second generation solid fuel rocket, Epsilon. Japan has experience in re-entry vehicle technology (OREXHOPE-X). Toshiyuki Shikata, a government adviser and former lieutenant general, indicated that part of the rationale for the fifth M-V Hayabusa mission, from 2003 to 2010, was that the reentry and landing of its return capsule demonstrated "that Japan's ballistic missile capability is credible."[35]

It has been pointed out that as long as Japan enjoys the benefits of a "nuclear-ready" status held through surrounding countries, it will see no reason to actually produce nuclear arms, since by remaining below the threshold, albeit with the capability to cross it at short notice, Japan can expect the support of the US while posing as an equal to China and Russia.[36]

 

So yes Japan does have nukes.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:09 | 4453605 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

With all the saber-rattling, by now they probably have deliverable nukes.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:12 | 4456425 thestarl
thestarl's picture

MAD

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:36 | 4453121 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

HOME BEFORE CHRISTMASS!!!

AND REMEMBER!!

ASK NOT WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR YOUR COUNTRY
BUT WTF YOUR COUNTRY EVER DID FOR YOU!!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:49 | 4453232 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1, SD, very good...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:35 | 4453794 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Too bad almost none of the public understands what their country does TO them.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:25 | 4453412 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Well "mission" has to be defined. The mission in Afghanistan underwent mission creep. The initial rout of the and AQ from Kabul was a cakewalk, but then with the superstoopid that is do gooder international coalition warfare on the ground(NATO), things went from light and fast to bureaucratically bogged. Obama psychotically tripled down on the stupid, winning most of our casualties there for a great big preannounced less than zero result. His purpose was to demoralize the US military, which votes mostly to keep the republic intact and constitutional. Obama is about tearing that down as fast as he can pull off.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 04:23 | 4456436 thestarl
thestarl's picture

The US, losers when it comes down to asymmetric warfare not the valour of the US fighting man questioned here but the buffoons running the show can't be told

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:15 | 4453056 booboo
booboo's picture

according to todays standards ww1 and 2 were very short and sharp, now it's perpetual war against everyone and anyone who dares to tug on their leash.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:42 | 4453478 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

It's all relative:  Compared to America's 12 year wars in the ME, most wars seem short & sharp.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:21 | 4453087 newdoobie
newdoobie's picture

Short, Sharp, and Profitable!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:21 | 4453091 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I read the ZH article recently of China complaining about Japan retaining plutonium.  Well, WTF do they expect?  China is begging it neighbors to worry, and perhaps get together...  If I were running Russia, I would be looking at China with a very hard eye.  The last thing they should want, IMO, is Japan with plutonium nukes...

China may make a big mistake sometime soon.  They have problems ranging from the worrisome (pollution) to the catastrophic (demographics).  

Historically, China has not typically been aggressive.  Why this latest BS?  Makes no sense to a Bearing Guy.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:39 | 4453180 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Well...  China has LOTS of males 18-35 who have no prospects in finding mates (courtesy of the one child policy).   In contrast, Japan has LOTS of OLD - and getting older - people.

China comes out way ahead on this one putting its troublesome male cohort to good use.  

 

What's Japan going to do?   and THAT is the problem because the US will get sucked into whatever happens.

 

Maybe TPTB have given up on getting a full blown war going in the Middle East (God knows they've bee trying like mad to get WWIII going with Iran - and now in Syria) .  Perhaps they've moved on to the Far East......   Korea and Vietnam were nice long drrawn out (and VERY profitable) wars.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:53 | 4453244 therover
therover's picture

Males 18-35 incinerate just as fast as older males, when the mushroom clouds appear.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:09 | 4453603 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Storming the beaches of Japan, and occupying Japanese cities?  Thats called being 'put to good use'?

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:07 | 4455909 PT
PT's picture

That's the idea.  Kill two birds ...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:58 | 4453274 V in PA
V in PA's picture

"because the US will get sucked into whatever happens."

 

The US will willing jump at the opportunity to make some money off a China vs. Japan conflict. Hell they may even give it the little push it needs to get started.

 

The US is the greatest weapons manufacturer the world has ever seen. War is what we do. Resources are what we take. Our National Anthem is about war. We do not get sucked into war. We start it.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:41 | 4453192 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Lots of chatter here about USA fabricating a war to distract from economic problems....... what about the Yellow Menance? Maybe they need to jump start their economy.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:11 | 4453619 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

China's economy is in much bigger trouble than ours.  I agree that China may be raising the volume to distract their people from their economic problems.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:53 | 4453883 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

China's economy may be a house of fiat cards like ours but they don't have the massive social/welfare obligations the US has.

It's the difference between getting pneumonia when you are 25 and getting pneumonia when you are 95.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:06 | 4453936 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

They have 900 million peasants to keep peaceful.  That's a massive social/welfare obligation we DON'T have.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:44 | 4453209 N2OJoe
N2OJoe's picture

Just like the US(or any country).

When they dump that much money into the military, everyone starts getting itchy trigger fingers. Whether the chicken came first or the egg is largely irrelevent but the two actions tend to occur together.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:45 | 4453212 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Simple, resources!!

It's the same reason, we would bitchslap Mexico back to the 17th century, if they ever tried to tell us, they have territorial rights to the Gulf of Mexico! (I hope the hilarity of the name of the fucking body of water, is not lost on the reader, while making my point)

China has billions of mouths to feed and the S China Sea is a big part of that equation!! It's always going to be the same reason going forward and it's always been the reason looking back!! Nothing Else Matters!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:07 | 4453591 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Pretty much right, but you need to expand your thinking more strategically. It's more than just physical resources, it's business resources too. I think this China/Japan conflict is just a headfake. China will never directly attack Japan, but they would use their proxy N.Korea. I predict the Norks will ratchet up the heat to boiling soon. A few gunboat incursions, another Nuke test, and maybe a balistic missle lobbed over Japan. The heat will be hotter than anything previously, and this time China will agree to step in and control the Norks... for a price. I bet the price will eventually be Taiwan. The Chinese became the world wide industrial and business power AFTER they got control of Hong Kong from the British and exploited all their world wide business contacts. They want to do the same thing with Taiwan to start the next wave of growth. N.Korea will be the leverage to make it happen. A trade off. Watch for it. It will happen before 0zer0 leaves the White Hut because everyone knows he is a pussy.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:50 | 4453234 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Why this latest BS?

Because might makes right.

Think of all the Chinese who could be employed if the Middle Kingdom were to be drafted as the World's new police department.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:33 | 4453143 EmmittFitzhume
Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:37 | 4453168 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

"War is the health of the state."

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:08 | 4453326 Freddie
Freddie's picture

US Navy warns?

Well they ground ships off Sochi like retards, they are Obama's navy and they (including Adm McCain) sold out the USS Liberty - so ***k them.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:12 | 4453628 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

That's what they want you to think.  Our biggest advantage is the enemy underestimating us (see WWII, Japan).

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 05:03 | 4456460 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

japanese never underestimate us in the second WW.

they did pearl harbour as a striking blow to the pacific fleet, to have clear hands for operations in pacific.

it's kinda easy to understand.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:10 | 4453610 sfisher
sfisher's picture

Just the tip.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:11 | 4453031 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

FOOK ME!!!!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:13 | 4453043 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

No, no, no...Fook Mi! Fook Mi!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:12 | 4453038 pods
pods's picture

So is the US going to hold the government responsible for this too?

pods

 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:16 | 4453052 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please, the power brokers in both countries have been on the same page since 1971.

Japan, and the yen had a very important part to play in the maintaining status quo, until now.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:20 | 4453085 chunga
chunga's picture

Yes they are pods, and to prove they mean business the navy is going to run a frigate up on the beach.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:14 | 4453047 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

< meh > War has always been a means of removing unfunded liabilities from the balance sheet...

same as it ever was...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:15 | 4453054 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

War is simply accounting by other means.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:12 | 4453621 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

But don't worry, I am sure everyone is recording an annual 'Bad Debt Expense', so that when the bad debts hit...  Oh, who am I kidding...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:54 | 4453889 PrawnStar
PrawnStar's picture

Hah, can you see the application of a FIFO rule to this accounting tactic?

Retiring baby-boomers get ready for that trip to Asia you always dreamed about....after all, we can't very well send generation wuss.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:15 | 4457009 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Now there is a battle plan I'd support.  Sadly, generation wuss will probably be a "hero" generation. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:14 | 4453049 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

I'm sure they are just tryin' to spread freedum-n-democracy,  just like we do.   It's for the children.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:14 | 4453050 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

All they have to do is claim they are part of Al Queda and Obama will give them the weapons to take over Japan.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:16 | 4453058 Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

Colnel Ho Lee Fuk, Captain We Too High! report!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:17 | 4453063 joego1
joego1's picture

I'm sure glad we sent all of our jobs technology to such a nice set of folks. It's a good thing that were are in debt up to our eyeballs to them as well. Well done American policy makers!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:59 | 4453548 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

But remember...

Debt is only really debt if you pay it back.

Up to that point it's only accounting.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:14 | 4453636 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

We didn't send all our technology, only the old stuff.  They stole some of the new stuff, but not the best stuff.  We still have a few surprises for them.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:28 | 4453739 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

"We didn't send all our technology, only the old stuff.  They stole some of the new stuff, but not the best stuff.  We still have a few surprises for them."

What 'we' are you talking about ?

 

I was talking to a nice Chinese lady. She's a small business owner with family, including a little boy. Her folks and much of her family live in China. 

Most Americans likely have more in common with this woman than the socio-psycho path 'leaders' - - - no matter what country theyre from.

Human tribalism and 'divide & conquer' have worked against humanity forever.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:09 | 4453950 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

I was relying on the antecedent of the comment above.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:18 | 4453072 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

CNN needs its ratings up!  Can we send Wolf to the frontline?  

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 06:08 | 4456491 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

id rather that asshole get sent to help to clean up SPF 3&4

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:18 | 4453073 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

just think of the printing opportunities japan can undertake if it goes to war with china. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:20 | 4453076 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

  “As a senior Chinese government official recently stated, there is growing concern that the US’s pattern of behavior in the Middle East reflects an incremental effort by the US to assert control of the area.... despite the objections of its neighbors, and despite the lack of any explanation or apparent basis under international law.” 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:24 | 4453094 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Translation: The country needs a distraction and the MIC needs moar funding to protect the homeland/ motherland/ fatherland/ insert your collectivist name of choice.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:23 | 4453100 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

WWIII Light

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:39 | 4453184 Possible Impact
Possible Impact's picture

Instant Sunshine. Delivered in buckets...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:24 | 4453106 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

It's almost time for the useless eaters to be obliterated. Jamie Dimon says so.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:26 | 4453109 maskone909
maskone909's picture

They will be much less dangerous driving on water

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:29 | 4453112 stant
stant's picture

i posted on here the other day expect falklands style war. thats warren pollocks take on it and i believe hes right

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:28 | 4453124 Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

It will be pure gold if King Putt is out on the golf course again when the shooting starts. They'll have to photoshop him back into the SITUATION ROOM where he'll be seen giving attack orders with the most serious of expressions.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:43 | 4453204 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

C'mopn... ther Prez is a figurehead - has been for some time.  The script is written by TPTB and he follows it - or else.  What's left besides playing golf and photoops with Girl Scouts?  

And if you believe there's any difference between Repubs and Dems - in what really matters - you're delusional and have fallen for the staged farce that gives the ILLUSION of real choice (keeps the masses diverted from focusing on reality and revolting).

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:55 | 4453259 Homernomics
Homernomics's picture

+ 1,000

Spot on.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:07 | 4453589 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

The human brain likes to catagorize new information.

It's like asking your car-jacker if he's a Crip or a Blood.

People like to know. It's comforting.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:28 | 4453125 Typing Typer
Typing Typer's picture

I think Japan will be shorter and sharper than China can possibly imagine. That is Japan's forte' after all.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:30 | 4453129 Cow
Cow's picture

in the mean time, I think we should invade Canada

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:48 | 4453224 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Loot the breweries, and then surrender.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 02:15 | 4456246 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Aye, we shoulda known you'd come for the beer.

Maybe if we lay trails of backbacon & maple syrup you'll head the wrong way.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 02:20 | 4456253 akak
akak's picture

Funny how you Canadians call it "backbacon" and we Americans call it "Canadian bacon".

http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-canadian-bacon.htm

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:57 | 4460862 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

We also have this thing that's a cross between a donut & a pancake covered in brown sugar & maple syrup and chocolate syrup, called "beavertails". I finally had one late last year for the first time.

I consider it Diabetes on a Plate but considering the health of the average American, I'm betting this will also make great bait to lure the skinnier ones away from the beer.

The fat ones won't make it past the first Tim Horton's. I used to make those cakes & make the tarts, etc., there's no way a 300 pounder will roll out of Timmy's faster than we can move the beer to a safe location.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:32 | 4453139 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Yeah of course some dickhead with USNI is forecasting a war.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:33 | 4453144 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Again, people, oil.  Under the Senkakus, but more importantly, burned by a war effort.

This is not the way to go to war with Japan.  The way to do that is cut off their oil imports.  They will go through their Strat Petroleum Reserve in a month or two and that will be that.

Ditto for Japan.  Hit the tankers going to Shanghai and China starts to starve.

The LAST thing you want to do in such a war is kill people.  People consume oil.  You want them to go through their SPR as fast as possible, so you don't want to kill people.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:55 | 4453256 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Nice insight.  Kill their petroleum reserves.

You work for the Pentagon, right?   :)   (j/k)

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:17 | 4453653 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

One among many vulnerabilities.  Another is China's still heavy dependence on exports for hard cash, exports which instantly go away when they start shooting.  There's also food and water.  Many levers, and we already have plans to pull them all.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:35 | 4453152 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I think we are going to see large regional or World War within 6 months to year. Way too much global strife and debt.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:43 | 4453203 novictim
novictim's picture

You are mistaken.

70 years ago the conditions would make you right in your predictions.  But the cold war should inform you.  THe Cuban missile crisis should inform you.

Nukes changed EVERYTHING.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:04 | 4453563 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I hope you're right, but nuke proliferation into shaky hands (Ayub Khan) and shitloads of debt and lessening resources point to otherwise.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:38 | 4453174 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

“As a senior U.S. government official recently stated, there is growing concern that China’s pattern of behavior in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assert control of the area contained in the so-called 9-dash line despite the objections of its neighbors, and despite the lack of any explanation or apparent basis under international law.”

Loosely translated in Hebrew/English, it means those dirty slopes are dumping all of our "cash" and therefore the hour has come upon us to get even.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:38 | 4453176 novictim
novictim's picture

Japan has nukes.  Japan has ICBMs.  Japan would willingly nuke any oulying Island like those rocks in dispute with China.  Would China nuke Tokyo?  How long would it be before Beijing is annihilated?

 

Best defense for Japan is to monitor the families of the ruling party and adjust the flight path of the ICBMs accordingly.

 

MAD does stabilize things.  It's undeniable.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:50 | 4453235 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Yeah 'novictim' and you know what that means.

The U.S. with a gun shoved up the rear end of that island we've been occupying since 1945 who has been the recipient of 3 nuclear catastrophes will be nuclear bait "a fourth time", in our game of chicken because we know how fucked we would be if we ever decided to take on an Army of better than 4 million in a conventional confrontation.

When the dust settles from that folly of "chicken" you might not want to be around to declare victory!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:03 | 4453303 Typing Typer
Typing Typer's picture

And would that be 4 million soldiers who can walk on water?

All these assumptions that China's military is just incredible also assumes Chinese are masters of sea warfare, when in reality they have never fought a modern sea battle even once!

I think anywhere there's a land bridge, like Vietnam or Korea, then China is formidable (although with high casualites for them, a la Russe). But anywhere else on sea or air the Chinese are complete novices, grossly arrogant novices at that.

I think China will get their asses handed to them in short order anywhere they fight that is not on land that is beside China.

Maybe they can change that over time, but that takes practice, and they haven't fought anywhere in 60 years at least.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:16 | 4453373 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

And just what makes you think T.T. they will be going it alone?

I've got some inspirational Christian rock & roll with this story from an ex-case officer in the American intelligence community.

Have fun! 

The world will be watching your unmatched brilliance on the field of battle over there.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:53 | 4453882 Typing Typer
Typing Typer's picture

I'd say wishful thinking with that 'American religious zealot' angle there SCN. The US military has always been highly religious, and it has the track record of wins and skills to show what it can really do.

Talk that they are religious so they are therefore not the US military smacks of grasping at straws, imo. Sounds like a European pipedream of whistling past the American warmachine.

But whistle all you like, just don't start a shooting war you can't win. Good advice in any era, I'd say.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:07 | 4453933 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Looking forward to seeing another resounding American military success.

Disregard what I said below about "Al Qaeda".  Don't need the help as the work they've been achieving in undermining other Governments we want to install our banks in has been working out -Oh so well.

Didn't Wesley Clark tell us we'd have it all wrapped up (7 Countries in 5 years) after Washington and Manhattan were attacked?  Now it's time to shake the "biggest trees". Just ask Wesley how that "airport thing" worked out in Bosnia when he was over there, and the The "Dick" Cheney and G.W. with Georgia in '07?

Keep sticking that chin out.  I see Russian and Chinese in your future.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 05:01 | 4456458 thestarl
thestarl's picture

That Boykin god bothering fucking fruitcake,its a worry.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:03 | 4453568 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

And there is more than just land, water, and air to consider.  China will need to think very carefully before starting a shooting war.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:50 | 4453866 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

"China will need to think very carefully before starting a shooting war."

Wouldn't want to be the outside party that starts that "party"

Correct me if I'm wrong but if the last 13 years is any indication of our resounding success in military strategy, you may want to cover your ears the next time you visit the barber shop.

Gonna take a whole lotta Al Qaeda help working alonside our Ol' Testament Brothers in uniform! 

What a Team!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:15 | 4453984 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

I don't think we would be starting it.  Looks like China is preparing to start it.  Our strategy during the last war was admittedly sub-par, but so was our leadership.  We have had some notably military successes during the current administration.  I think, should we need military strategy in the near future, we will do better than we did during the last war.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:27 | 4454046 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Don't pay any attention to these guys -if it should happen to you... I've been told by my CO it's not "contagious", just like what we saw in pictures at Abu Ghraib by our ladies and gents in uniform was just an isolated case ...

Rest assured back here at home we're patritoic and waving the flag regardless of who starts it.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:05 | 4454482 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

>> when in reality they have never fought a modern sea battle even once!

Actually they have fought a few of them.   

  • Hainan Island Campaign - Chinese communists took the island of Hainan from 120,000 dug in Nationalists.  (1950) 
  • First Sino-Japan War - full naval battles

Are they out of practice? Yep.  Are they going to take a LOT of casualties?  Sure.  But they can afford that.  

If the PRC leadership loses 200,000 to accomplish their goals, they DON'T CARE.

Can Japan afford 200,000 casualties?  Nope.  They don't have the political will.  

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:02 | 4453561 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

We have measures other than nukes to neutralize those 4 million soldiers.  Measures that nobody knows about.  If it came to it, I think we would deploy some technologies that would amaze us.  The Pentagon has a method when publicizing all the snafu's and screw-ups over the years.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:41 | 4453193 youngman
youngman's picture

It has to be a short operation...because they are.....

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:44 | 4453207 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

The war between the states was supposed to be short.

Hitler expected a very short war.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:33 | 4453435 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

four years is short

30 years war

hundred years war

war on terror

war on drugs

war on poverty

war on freedom and democracy

at least we wont be hosting this one

hor d'hoevres?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:45 | 4453213 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Good biz dev opportunity for Barry and company!!!!

 

Get on it Barry - go sell some fucking weapons like your predecessors.

 

Hopey Changey up your ass Barry!!!!!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:45 | 4453214 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

"The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusion"

- Robert Wison Lynd

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:48 | 4453227 mliu_01
mliu_01's picture

chinese do not need ot use nuke. Just drop a couple of bombs in fukushima. That will be more than enough.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:34 | 4453439 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

dude

not cool

dont be giving any of these fuckers ideas

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:48 | 4453228 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

Wars are good for gold... I'm going to make a lot of dough!

 

Ahem sorry I was in full "Warren Buffet" mode for a minute. Trying now to become a human being again.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:53 | 4453247 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

Serious now : the US beg for this to happen. Japan is going to get smashed and the US Intel will have plenty of data to study how the Chinese fight. 

 

It's a bit like 1942 when 1000's of poor Canadian cannon fodder were shipped to Dieppe to study the German beach defenses... (they got slaughtered and surrended before 2 o'clock...).  The US and Brit Intels learnt a lot that day...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:57 | 4453266 Typing Typer
Typing Typer's picture

I think you are seriously underestimating Japan's fighting abilities. In what war has China showed this great military skill that you seem to be assuming they have?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:04 | 4453309 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Plus the US has bases all over Japan.  I don't think we'll see a Chinese invasion unless their end game is WWIII...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:41 | 4454394 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

Correct -

But assaulting and quickly taking a few uninhabitied islands for 'show' is far different than attacking Japan's mailand.  The later will not happen under any circumstances.  

 

jb

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:07 | 4453324 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

China of the early 20th century is not the China of the early 21st century.

Just as Japan of the early 20th century is not the Japan of the early 20th century.

Times changes, and who swings their dick changes.

China is just strutin'-its-stuff.  Normal asshole male behavior.   The world is run by asshole males.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:02 | 4453286 LordAarioc
LordAarioc's picture

Delete double post

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:01 | 4453287 LordAarioc
LordAarioc's picture

Drop a bomb on Fukishima and in the process they totally poison the Pacific Ocean ( Not that it isnt already) and the radiation comes in waves on currents to sit on our West Coast Beaches killing us. No one is going to use nukes because it would be suicide.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:36 | 4453453 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

shut up!

 

you  geniuses forget they are 'listening' and you do not want to be giving them ideas

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:00 | 4453288 sangell
sangell's picture

Falklands. Argentina seized them, put 14,000 troops on them and Britain blockaded the islands. If the UK could do that 7000 miles from its home waters and with only a couple of dozen Sea Harriers does any Chinese admiral seriously believe the US and Japanese navies, operating in what are their home waters with air bases in Okinawa and Guam could not simply blockage the Senakakus turning any Chinese garrison into a self made POW camp?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:35 | 4453447 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Looked at a map lately?

Senkakus. Japan seized them, put some nonsense on them and China blockaded and liberated the islands. If the Chinese could do that just a few miles from its home waters and with only a couple of dozen assets, does any American admiral seriously believe the US and Japanese navies, operating far from home with under-strength air bases in Okinawa and Guam, could take those islands back without the use nuclear weapons?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:08 | 4453596 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Actually without hesitation, we don't need no stinkin base. - US Pacific Fleet

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:45 | 4454402 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

BO would have to make a snap decision -

Order the Pacific Fleet to immediately defend the islands that China was attempting to take or tell it to stand down and try for another peace prize

 

 

 

jb

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:11 | 4453346 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

The Coolies vs. The Nips!

BANZAI  motherfuckers....let's fuel another banker-financed WOAR!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:20 | 4453386 Payne
Payne's picture

They will practice in the Phillipines before taking on Japan.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:29 | 4453424 general ambivalent
general ambivalent's picture

When I go down to the beach to have a bonfire I leave a gasoline trail so that I can find my way back home.

Damn there's a whole lot of megalomaniacs praying for World War I Redux.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:30 | 4453426 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Slightly off topic, but do you figure the US CIA is stirring up things in Venezuela so that country will be unable to ship as much oil to China as the Chinese want to buy? Seems like two birds with one stone plan if you're one fool-hardy elitist.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:06 | 4453579 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Sure, it's a socialist paradise otherwise... Long badays!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:07 | 4453584 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Things that make you go Hmmm.............

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:20 | 4453689 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Surely we have more direct means of influencing Venezuela if push comes to shove.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:30 | 4453428 lindaamick
lindaamick's picture

Read some history about Japanese Chinese relations especially as it relates to the disputed islands.

Historically Japan was the agressor.  Currently, Japan's leadership has made moves to take a more proactive military stance in general. 

It is difficult to get an objective view about real events between Japan and China as the US 'interests' trump objectivity.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:37 | 4453461 10mm
10mm's picture

PLEASE TO MEET YOU,HOPE YOU GUESS MY NAME.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:51 | 4453495 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

Instead of plotting how to seize territory and murder each other, spy on each other, etc.  Perhaps these dumbfucks of the world called governments could spare some resources to FUCKING FIX THE DISASTER CALLED FUKUSHIMA!  

Do these fucksticks understand that if those reactors and fuel pools aren't stabilized, it will make the entire region uninhabitable?  That makes their little squabble over senkaku bukaki islands a little of a mute point doesn't it?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:02 | 4453565 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Perhaps if they dumped the waste there no one would bother any longer.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:48 | 4453499 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Get ready for the Clingons to decloak just before they fire.  ;-)

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:56 | 4453538 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Look for "Made in China".  Avoid.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:01 | 4453553 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

LOL.  I thought the Chinese were studious?  They don't read much history (or at least the kind that's not made with High Fructose Party Syrup and Select Information, the dumb asses.

Just off the cuff, the US Civil War was going to be one of those short affairs.   WWI was, too.

Best of luck, AnAnon, be sure to post from the trenches!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:10 | 4453614 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

Hmmmm, I'll take some Yellowcake with a large chunk of salt please...

 

Oh, and Saddam has WMD's.

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