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FOMC Minutes Preview
Bank of America expects the FOMC minutes to reveal broad support for the continuation of "measured" tapering, with general discussion around what conditions might lead the FOMC to deviate from a $10bn per month pace, but few, if any, specifics. A small number of Fed officials are likely to express worry about the costs and efficacy of QE, but the majority should see those as less important and focus on signs of continued recovery in the labor market. Forward guidance is likely to have less agreement, with a few members supporting reducing the unemployment threshold, a few favoring no change at all, and several supporting a shift toward a more qualitative approach. We expect the FOMC to drop the unemployment threshold and introduce vaguer but more robust qualitative guidance at their March meeting.
Via BofAML,
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting are likely to reveal a number of debates within the Committee but not necessarily much resolution. Recall that weather was just starting to become a significant potential explanation for a rash of soft data reports, while the turmoil in global financial markets was in full force.
We look for Fed officials to acknowledge some risks to the outlook, but largely view them as short-lived and not moving their expectations for continued improvements in US growth and employment.
On inflation, Chair Yellen's testimony made it clear that the FOMC still isn't particularly worried about the persistently low rate. We expect an active debate all year about cyclical vs. structural sources of labor market weakness and the risks to the inflation outlook.
A number of Fed officials see a significant share of the unemployed as structural, but many others still see some role for monetary policy to offset lingering cyclical forces. A few have suggested that the persistently low inflation means that there may be more slack in the economy than some labor indicators imply.
On policy, we expect the minutes to reveal broad support for the continuation of "measured" tapering, with general discussion around what conditions might lead the FOMC to deviate from a $10bn per month pace, but few, if any, specifics. A small number of Fed officials are likely to express worry about the costs and efficacy of QE, but the majority should see those as less important and focus on signs of continued recovery in the labor market.
Forward guidance is likely to have less agreement, with a few members supporting reducing the unemployment threshold, a few favoring no change at all, and several supporting a shift toward a more qualitative approach. We expect the FOMC to drop the unemployment threshold and introduce vaguer but more robust qualitative guidance at their March meeting. There may be some additional discussion of other ways to strengthen guidance as asset purchases wind down.
Further consideration of the operating procedures during the exit strategy is likely as well, and this too should be an ongoing discussion this year.
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Vaguer but more robust? Is that like PHD (piled higher and deeper)?
A little help please.......
Are they talking about tapering $10B/month until zero QE or just holding the $75B/mo that they are currently printing?
Yes.
no, si, no
Remember, God gave them the right to print money from thin-air and charge you for it! You should be thankful that you get to be a part of it...
So basically there are some possible problems... but not really.
They may as well be written in Mandarin for all
the use they are.
Soon they will be.
Its FED speak... totally confusing with no real direction
Other famous Fed statements;
"we will never directly monetize the debt"
and
"the sub-prime lending problem is contained"
roll the motherfucking guillotines...
nothing changes otherwise.
Fed minutes don't matter. Whatever they say, the bailout queens know from actions that they'll be there again when the chips are down. So might as well ratchet the base ever higher in the meantime.
Production, Nonfarm, Unemployment, Manuf. PMI, Housing Starts, Retail sales disappointments all due to cold weather... move along, nothing to see
As long as Fuckbook and the rest of the useless social media stocks are up...what else matters right?
Fed Talk is like that one black and white Comedy Skit, "Who's on First ?"
Blah blah blah...Blobity blah blah... a wah wah... wah wah $65 billion..wah wah March meeting.
----end of transmission---
man, FUCK THE MOTHER FUCKING FED....
now back to the program...
stackin............................................................................
At some point they're going to buy stocks. I'd imagine we get a corporate tax holiday first, though. Stocks might hit 50k before this is all done.