Housing Starts Plunge Most In 3 Years; Permits Tumble - Miss By Most In 7 Months

Tyler Durden's picture


It seems once again that 'economists' and 'analysts' misunderstood the weather in winter is cold. Housing Starts dropped a stunning 16% MoM (from an upwardly revised December data) for the biggest miss since June 2013 (and 8 of last 10 months missed expectations). This is the biggest MoM drop in 3 years. Building Permits - more problematic for the weather blamers - also plunged (by 5.4%) missing expectations by the most since June. However, what is the biggest slap in the face for the 'weather-blamers' is the collapse in Permits for the West (-26%) while most other regions improved.

Permits missed by most since June back to mid-2013 levels...


Permits on a non-seasonally adjusted basis are cratering, and barely above January 2013 levels.


Starts plunged - missing 8 of the last 10 months..


Starts for single family houses: SA vs NSA - disaster.


Housing Starts dropped 16% MoM - the 3rd most in 20 years

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Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:44 | 4452067 Overdrawn
Overdrawn's picture

Can anyone tell me if the money in our FX accounts will be immune from the bank tax when it happens?  Or will the Government take surplus funds from any source?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:58 | 4452114 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Of course its immune! Keep shoveling in MOAR and MOAR - the government will never touch it!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:09 | 4452173 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

A new car costs more than a house in many parts of the US.  Why anyone is building homes right now, unless they're extras for the uberwealthy, who really don't need any more, is beyond me.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:21 | 4452223 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Foreclosures still very high in Miami, Tampa, Sacramento, and, well, here's the list:



Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:22 | 4452769 InflammatoryResponse
InflammatoryResponse's picture

Vegas is sure taking a beating.



Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:36 | 4452880 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

....polar vortex,....er....global warming....

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:26 | 4452224 Melin
Melin's picture

". . . who really don't need any more . . ."


The leftist, collectivist dream is to determine "need" and keep everyone in it.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:59 | 4452135 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

I've BenYellen this for some time now.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:12 | 4452185 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

Can anyone tell me if the money in our FX accounts will be immune from the bank tax when it happens?  Or will the Government take surplus funds from any source?

Your funds can become fully safe, secure, sound and give you a nice dividend if you transfer quickly to a MyRA account.  GOOD AS GOLD!!  Backed by the full faith and credit of the USA!!!    



Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:46 | 4452072 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

too dry to get a permit?  there, its the weather's fault.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:46 | 4452075 DavidC
DavidC's picture

...And the market's started going up...


Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:15 | 4452199 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The question is, can it make it back up to the recent highs, and if so, can it break out with any carrythrough?  A peek at a six month SPY chart shows how awful volume has been on this latest run-up, and with the Fed tapering and an avalanche of bad fundamentals, I doubt it's going much further.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:47 | 4452079 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Tapering...Tapering .......Yellen, growth is going downside

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:47 | 4452083 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

We need MOAR good news before the market opens.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:48 | 4452084 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

you ain't seen nothin' yet

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:49 | 4452088 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture



Housing drop?


Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:01 | 4452142 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

"Its contained", not to worry.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:49 | 4452089 SlipStitchPass
SlipStitchPass's picture

I wondered why the futures bumped up.......Fuck the Ponzi....or ride it into the ground because it is the only game in town.


Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:51 | 4452094 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Quick...Untaper..... UNTAPER DAMN IT!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:52 | 4452101 playnstocks
playnstocks's picture

QE works great, Look at all the growth..?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:54 | 4452105 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

QE does work, look at the sales of Ferraris and Rolls Royce. Proof that QE has worked exactly as planned

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:53 | 4452102 katchum
katchum's picture

No permits is no housing starts is housing prices going down.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:53 | 4452103 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

is it still cold outside???

it appears the takedown in the only 2 forms of real money have shifted to the late Globex session where only the MoneyChangers r selling fake Gold and Silver...how can markets chart the same way, at the same time, on consecutive days - yeah, fraud....




Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:53 | 4452104 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

bullish, ES about to go GREEN yayz!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:57 | 4452119 observer007
observer007's picture

Kiev clashes

List of latest Videos from Ukraine:


Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:58 | 4452127 disabledvet
Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:58 | 4452129 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

the lack of new supply is also aiding the existing real estate bubble.  i guess we can only hope that by further restricting new supply will take the edge of the next real estate collapse (no zombie developments etc).  but then again, we'll probably get hyperinflation before that collapse...so the investors keep dumping money into hard assets. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:59 | 4452133 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Don't worry the PPI numbers came in a little better. Must be all that demand for cold weather supplies and heaters.

   I'm absolutely certain it's got nothing to do with exploding energy costs. /s

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:05 | 4452162 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

SPY plummeting ... down .22 at this writing ... 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:16 | 4452203 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

What, I thought the chineese were buying everything.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:26 | 4452245 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

One can only blame the Chai Knees and the Japuh Knees for so long. Dem chikins gonna come home to roost...well, they wood but chikin coop starts are way down and...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:21 | 4452221 philosophers bone
philosophers bone's picture

Can we all agree:  (1)  It was really, really cold; and (2) We're all fucked and it has nothing to do with the cold weather?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:32 | 4452273 TheGoldMyth
TheGoldMyth's picture

As ZH resident Economic Climate Change Scientist i look at how economic activity increases or decreases  CO2 emissions that cause climate.
I must admit i am stumped because this is totally unexpected. Usually i can look at foreclosures and predict how cold it will get using this data. More foreclosure usually means colder weather as empty houses do not generate any CO2 that increases temperatures.

Less building starts should indicate colder weather. hmm

I need to get back to you all on this one when i look more closely at the nubers.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:36 | 4452286 TheGoldMyth
TheGoldMyth's picture

It is possible that the economic climate change data is being manipulated and corrupted.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:58 | 4452399 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Got to have water to mix cement...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:02 | 4452420 Colonel Walter ...
Colonel Walter E Kurtz's picture

Do these numbers count the "shipping container" housing starts?

I thought a news article a while ago led me to believe "this" was going to be the future of housing.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:16 | 4452485 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Bad news always ='s good news for the S&P in the asylum.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:42 | 4452589 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Don't know why people get bent out of shape over this.  Everyone knows the brutal winter weather has hammered construction and affected other sectors of the economy.  No new news here...just BTFD

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:36 | 4452875 Sardonicus
Sardonicus's picture

You can't start a house without a nail gun.

Suicidal bankers are buying all the nail guns.

They are suicidal because of the weather.

Therfore, housing starts are down because of the weather.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:06 | 4453312 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

As the economy tanks, people are moving in with others. See this 2013 census data (Table F1-All Races):
SIZE OF FAMILY (thousands)
Two members 37,104
Three members 18,010
Four members 15,196
Five members 6,802
Six members 2,431
Seven or more members 1,358

There is going to be a shift of this table to larger, more diverse families and renters, as families consolidate around remaining earners and combine lower (real) incomes to make ends meet. I am watching this trend, that started with older children staying with their families longer.  If there is a 2020 census, I expect that the persons per household will rocket from 2.61 to more than 3.

It also may be that we have reached "peak housing" sqft per person.  In 1950, it was less than 300.  In 2006, it was more than 900.  In 2020, it will be much less.

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