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Japanese Trade Deficit Explodes To Record - No J-Curve Miracle In Sight
With exports up 9% but imports up a massive 25% YoY, Japan's Trade balance pushed to its largest deficit on record. This is the 2nd largest drop in the trade balance on record - beaten only by March/April 2011 (the Tsunami and Fuskushima). The miracle of the J-Curve (the hoped for recovery in exports that will come any minute now from the devaluation of the currency) is simply non-existent!! We love the smell of GDP downward revisions in the morning... Foreigners sold Japanese stocks for the 4th week in a row for the first time in 16 months.
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It's better to fuck yourself with a J curve because it hits the prostate
so true!
Just wait, it'll be hammered back up to the green by the morning.
No words left for how the rest of the buyside can continue to buy into the Nikki. Nothing in Japan can grow out of that without increasing the youth consumer discretionary income. To do that, you need to improve their ability to enter and move up the corporate ranks. Which means laying off the 60+ lifers. Which means forcing the pensions to reform. Which would require the company governance structures to reform. Which would require their zombie corps & cross holdings to mark to market bad loans which never were resolved in 1993. I bet you any amount of gold bars in Zurich there is at least 10 more Olympus Camera's buried on the front page of the Tokyo press alone.
Ah well. At least we will always have Paris. And the Permian. But the Paris basin would be more fun.
+100
"hey, you, you with the logic in your hand, come here... you're under arrest... welcome to guantanamo"
and, was their ever any doubt that the tsunami water would eventually return to the ocean.
You can not stockpile foreign fiat forever. Eventually, the tide returns...and there's still a LOT of water inland.
Japan's going full retard
uhhh....better...than...expected?!?!?!
(hoo-way)
Wait...that's the trade deficit and not the national debt?
Pretty sure the Chinese are boycotting Japan.
America is buying China military hardware (indirectly).
Ya, and with oil headed up, I guess Japan expects that to improve.
Japan will enter hyperinflation. China will push Japan further into a massive trade deficit. With no international trade and the trade war with China in full swing, the Japanese madmen will have to print endless amounts YEN. The Fed, that is sh*tting it's pants on China UST selling (China de-linking from US assets), will start to draw a line under the $, which they are doing i.e taper talk. All and all we are so close to a full blown conflict between China and Japan.
"In 2013, trade volume between China and Japan dropped 5.1% from the year before. That followed a 3.9% fall in 2012. To put these figures into context, China’s total trade was up 6.2% in 2012 and 7.6% last year while Japan’s volume increased 1.0% in 2012 but was down 7.8% in 2013.
Japanese sources attributed the drop in China-Japan trade to “the lingering effects of the Senkaku Islands territorial row”—Japan administers those barren outcroppings as its own while Beijing claims them as well—and a Chinese consumer boycott of Japanese goods. Chinese state media agrees that trade has been adversely affected by geopolitical disagreements and blames Shinzo Abe. Anti-Japan riots in Chinese cities, discriminatory official treatment of Japanese multinationals, and detention of Japanese businessmen in China have not helped.
Not surprisingly, investment between China and Japan has also taken a hit. Japanese direct investment in China dropped 4.3% last year even though overall foreign direct investment in China increased 5.3%. At the same time, China’s direct investment in Japan fell 23.5% at a time when its overall outbound investment jumped 16.8%.
"Why does the weakening of economic linkages matter? As Samuel Huntington noted in his landmark The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, “high levels of economic interdependence” can be “war-inducing” instead of “peace-inducing” if “states do not expect high levels of interdependence to continue.”
As the famous political scientist suggested, it is the trend of interaction—and not the level—that matters. When economies are pulling apart, nations perceive they have less interest in others’ success. History, unfortunately, tells us what can then happen."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/02/16/the-chinese-and-japan...
Toast!
Shit they ain't going to have enough to buy a ticket off that forsaken island.
Here comes the Japanese outflows:
*Japanese investors bought a net Y501.5 bln in foreign bonds in 2/15 week.
*Y617.2 bln in sales previous wk, Y2.91 trln in in Jan, Y499.1 bln in Dec.
*Volume large – Y2.9247 trln in buys against Y2.4231 trln in sales.
*Foreign investors sold net Y279.0 bln Japanese stocks, 4th week of sales.
*Net sales too of short-term Japanese bills – Y1.3913 trln.
It's gonna blow.
Implosions suck.
They will be selling dollars next.
Which is the next domino ?
Hopefully the Fed, when they lose total control of the markets. It will be vodka and popcorn an I'll die laughing.
currency war --> trade war --> hot war
For all those wondering when hyperinflation will set in, it already has but ironically, just for the 1%'s. Record prices paid for art, autos, and simple leisure activities (e.g., fine liquor) are basically an everyday occurence. Prime real estate, well look no further than the top properties in London, NY/Manhattan, and most recently, LA. Prices are almost beyond comprehension. You want more, well look to the private tech/life science businesses as just today, FB paid $19 billion for an instant messaging company Whatsapp. And as TD has noted, the excessive valuations in the private tech side of life where 30+ businesses have $1 billion or more valuations are now the norm.
The CBs, in their infamous wisdom, have created such a clusterfuck with the global economy that they have a hyperinflationary environment for the 1%'s with dis-inflation and probably, deflation now setting in for the 99%'s (think Southern Europe, soon to be falling car prices in the US as a result of excess capacity, etc.). Where this goes and ends is anyone's guess as the greatest monetary experiment in modern history, via the combined efforts of the world's CBs to pump $10 trillion in cash into the global economy over the past decade, enters it's final stage. Hard to believe this will have a happy "Hollywood" ending where everyone feels good leaving the movie. Rather, the ending will be more like that of a shady massage parlor where the happy ending involves "blowing the load" with only one person feeling good at the end. The CB's have blown their load and spewed their shit into every corner of the globe. But at least the masses will have plenty of worthless fiat currency to clean up the mess with.
whats the weather been like over in Japan? Has it been cold? Hot & dry? Any snow or lots of rain? They must be able to blame it on the weather.
Keynesians are by FAR the dumbest smart people I know.
First, trade deficits are a myth and it amazes me how the world follows these snipes so adamantly. Unfortunately, trade also figures into GDP.
If you believe in trade deficits then ask yourself how you are going to balance your personal trade deficit with your local grocer, pharmacy, Home Depot, Walmart, auto dealership, etc. Do they buy as much from you as you do from then? How long can you sustain that?
What is missing in trade deficits is the other side of the trade...the product or service. If a farmer buys an International Harvester from Indiana it appears as a trade deficit with the USA. However, the farmer gets the extra productive capacity and it becomes a part of doubling his yield or harvesting in half the time with 1/10th the labor, etc. In free trade both side wins. One side gets currency and the other side gets a product. Both come out ahead.
Given the currency shenanigans these days would you rather have fiat or actual products?
Trade deficits can create currency problems as one currency piles up predominantly one-way trades but that can be reconciled in other ways.
wtf
Read Walter E. Williams and others.
It is only a matter of time before the yen becomes worthless. Japan is the most indebted developed country in the world and its future prospects are dim and getting worse. If inflation begins to take root it will place upward pressure on Japanese bond yields and raise the cost of government to service its massive debt.
With the BOJ set to absorb half of the government bonds planned for sale this fiscal year, domestic investors have already started venturing overseas for higher yielding assets. If this turns in to a tsunami of money fleeing Japan it will constitute the end of the line for those holding both JGBs and the yen. More on this subject below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/08/japans-economy-going-forward.html
Manufactured exports up, but energy imports up by far far more. Japan simply does not function without its nuclear generators running.
Imagine the clusterfuck that Fance would be if it suddely shut down all its nuclear plants and had to import natural gas as a stop-gap.