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Mortgage Applications Plunge Further - Near 19 Year Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The past 5 weeks have seen mortgage applications crumble a further 16% - their biggest such drop in 14 months as the index for home purchase applications hovers close to its lowest level since 1995. Non-seasonally-adjusted, this is the worst start to a year in over a decade. Must be the weather?

 

Mortgage Applications drop close to 19 year lows...

 

Worst start to a year for at least a decade

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:20 | 4451972 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

And Ferrari has a record year.  Hopefully you get the picture what's going on here.  Gutting the middle class.

Broad averages are meaningless.  We now have two economies.  One for the ultra wealthy, one for everyone else.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:28 | 4452012 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Going to be hard driving those Ferrari's in streets littered with rocks and broken bottles. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:33 | 4452030 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Dey got run-flats, yo.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:42 | 4452058 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

and zero clearance. an armored suv for every day, the ferrari to park out front for show.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:15 | 4454527 balolalo
balolalo's picture

"Going to be hard driving those Ferrari's in streets littered with rocks and broken bottles. "

....and Molotov cocktails.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:56 | 4452116 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Silverhog: 

Nah, y'all taxpayers will get an increased tax bill in order to fix dem dar roads...

(Their words, not mine). 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:44 | 4452599 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

It's gonna' be murder running those Ferraris on roads destroyed by potholes that cannot be repaired properly because we're OUT OF MONEY.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:30 | 4452018 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Top 20% are doing well, the rest are just peasants.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:01 | 4452143 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Why get a mortgage when you can pay cash? Mortgages are so last decade.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:36 | 4452044 Jannn
Jannn's picture

World Gold Council Clueless on Chinese Gold Demand?

 

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/world-gold-council-clueless-on-chinese-gold-...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:44 | 4452062 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The middle class shouldn't feel too left out.  There is a gutting going on at the higher levels as well, just not as broad as it is in the middle class.  Upper middle class is really feeling it.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:14 | 4452474 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

Two economies fer sho.

Pimps and hos don't blink an eye when ordering upscale glass replacements for their landrovers or jags.  1000 for dat back glass? Get er done.

Suburban housewife trying to save money will use generic glass from a junkyard in her trimmed out SUV.  She thinks she's better than THOSE people.

Cant wait to see how this movie ends.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:21 | 4451980 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

DOUBLE BOTTOM??!!!

THAT'S SO BULLISH!!!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:21 | 4451982 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

10% price cuts on the home bulletins I rec'd this AM
in S.Florida.
Here we go again.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:26 | 4452001 new game
new game's picture

some late to the punch bowl flippers are in for a ride back to the bottom - short sale to themselves - rehypothicated...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:30 | 4452020 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Two I'm watching right now.They got greedy asking too much,
now they can't sell after 5 months.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:32 | 4452029 new game
new game's picture

dito-told the muther fucker i'll be at the courthouse step a waitin...

i deal direct as former broker. no middlemen or no sale-try it!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:35 | 4452036 new game
new game's picture

attitudes will change fast. smart sellers will under price so as to get in front of the downward pull.

too early, though...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:51 | 4452098 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I have a question, WC. I know someone who has been trying to buy a house in S Florida for months, yet he keeps gettng overbid by people with cash upfront, to the point that people are willing to buy the home for more than its listed. In what price range are the homes you are selling?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:38 | 4452296 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I'm not selling anything.Sold my RE last year.
I did bid on a house,and got outbid by another cash buyer.
The market down here has been very frothy, but is rapidly
going flat/down.Tell your friend to hold off,prices overshot.
Enormous shadow inventory being held off the market, a realtor
client of mine even admits privately that we are in a huge bubble that is already deflating.Bide your time.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:02 | 4452654 Kasperfx
Kasperfx's picture

thats nothing more then a fairytail. homes here are not moving from $400 and gets worse as you go up to the 1 million + marks, their all sitting for years  . yes i hear realtorstrying to bulock me but i asked them if sales are so good why are you driving a 8 year old car ? 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:28 | 4452014 Kasperfx
Kasperfx's picture

S florda needs to cut a lot more then 10%, S Florida seems to be trying to confuse people into thinking its california the prices here are insane and it's obvious as there is nothing at least were i see selling. it's all smoke and mirrors

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:44 | 4452065 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the koolaide is strong in s. florida. insane wish prices. bunch of people caught falling knives. there is no market, there is only unsold albatross inventory.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:51 | 4452096 new game
new game's picture

did a quick search under 100k just north of tampa; tarpon springs and new port richey and fucken eh, many, many to choose -some with complete remodels.  i supose if ya wait  long  enuf they will be back under the banks control...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:01 | 4452141 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

For what!?  To live in a fucking swamp full of bugs and a bunch of old geezers driving golf carts all over??

Fuck Floriduh!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:03 | 4452153 new game
new game's picture

agree, considered it when -45 degree wind chills were blowing. texas bound next week...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:04 | 4452157 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Actually look at almost any neighborhood on Zillow and you'll see lots of red [red=houses for sale].

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:47 | 4452608 Kasperfx
Kasperfx's picture

and rentals, this place is flooding with rentals and all seem to be reducing or very negotiable on their insane ( but decreasing) listing prices. A lot of funds and donald trump wanbee's are learning the hard way. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:37 | 4452046 -.-
-.-'s picture

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/1/31/the-exquisitely-reengineer...

 

Seems to coincide or at least make it so that I am not entirely surprised...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:41 | 4452056 new game
new game's picture

can anybody offer an opinion on the texas housing situation?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:50 | 4452091 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Prices around Austin are rising fast.  Everything sells in a hurry.  Prices are up near The Woodlands because Exxon moved their hq just up the road.  I'm in west Tx, and prices are flat unless you are close to the drilling boom in S. Tx.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:59 | 4452132 new game
new game's picture

thank you as i am heading to dallas first, then midland/odessa area.

spent a month in the woodlands up towards clevland area. couldn't do it.

the houston energy corridor is going nuts and dragging prices along.

too many assholes for me.  but austin is a different story, alot like mpls/st paul,

but liberal madness is taking hold.  looking for the majority with good ole-fashion conservative values.

and of course an income stream. place to buy some land with privacy and small home paid for in cash.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:14 | 4452470 Blano
Blano's picture

Yeah one of the few disappointing things about Texas so far is there's way more liberals down here than I thought.  The liberal coasts/illegal onslaught is in full swing.

That said, here's a little info for ya.  Despite the fact that Abortion Barbie is from Ft. Worth, methinks that's the place to aim for a more conservative bent than Dallas.  Maybe even west or south of FW if you want land.

http://www.movoto.com/dallas-tx/market-trends/

http://www.movoto.com/fort-worth-tx/market-trends/

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:18 | 4452495 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Austin will turn Texas into another Colorado. I know Texans disagree with me but I have witnessed it happen in Virginia from Nova as the rest of the state gets dragged along with them. Just a matter of time Texans. You heard it here first.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:28 | 4452829 pickupthatcan
pickupthatcan's picture

You're hardly the first.  We're further away from being blue than the libtards wish.   

Dallas sucks.  FSA galore, the politicians are communists and the food sucks.  East of Dallas, you can find land for between $3-6k per acre.  Buy 50+ acres and no town, city or county can inact any legislation to prevent you from shooting anything you want to on you own property.  Full auto machineguns are legal and encouraged here.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:51 | 4452953 WakeUpPeeeeeople
WakeUpPeeeeeople's picture

Why Austin you ask? Because there are 150 new swinging dicks moving here every fucking day, most from Ca with their fucking Ca mentality. Last summer it was 170 per day, alot of them without a job because they heard/read that Austin was the place to find their fortune. Silicon Valley is moving to Silicon Gulch.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:04 | 4452156 -.-
-.-'s picture

I am born and raised in Austin, and I can tell you that this city seems highly leveraged in its projects. Not only that, but the housing situation is also no better whatsoever---you've got overvaluation of homes and lots in areas that merely seem "attractive" to the swarms of Californian's who are amassing here daily (and have been for 2 years now). This creates a contagion effect in the real estate market here, increasing rents across the city starting from the central zip code 78701, then on to 78702, 78703, 78704, 78705, 78745, 78749, 78738, 78731, 78735, etc. 

Smoke and mirrors? Austin is perfecting that today. You should have been here before the Frost Bank Tower was built downtown---to the real Warehouse District by Republic Square. 

Condo here; Condo there; average rent downtown per 850 sqft. apartment (or condo) is $2,400 and going up due to six more 300+ occupancy residential constructions. Oh, and now Austin has been introduced to the (more expensive (and yet underutilized)) Rapid Metro Bus Routes. 

We (the fucking city council (Gotham?)) are making Austin, Texas beautiful to Californians, Portlandians, or really anyone with enough money to catch a wet elephant on fire. We are altering a city into a business, almost too well---no, wait, cities are businesses with a structure already in place to make sure that investors want in while it is Bullish. Ausitn, Texas is Bullish indeed and, in my opinion, inflated. Everything is a god damned commerical now in my hometown, but it is humorous because it can't last unless Google or Silicon Valley just move to Austin (another drought state---don't Californian's follow historic climate maps? Drought conditions? Water scarcity?). 

 

 

Welcome To The Spectacle, Here Is A Straw To Have With Your Internet

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:09 | 4452171 -.-
-.-'s picture

Oh, and it is the first time that I am witnessing too many people in a town where the roads are actually NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR ALL THE CARS TRYING TO DRIVE ONE CITY BLOCK DURING THE HOURS OF 4:30 PM AND 6:00 PM. And the fucking morons don't know how to drive around here either! Intersections are filled-up and left blocked by vehicles remaining in the intersection when your light turns green! This is going to get good, I am telling you that Austin, Texas is going to be a FUN, FUN, FUN TIME!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:27 | 4452246 new game
new game's picture

great music scene. biking big. mayor is sign of money transfer to the votes arriving...

grab onto your wallet!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:22 | 4451984 Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

A 1% increase in the 30 year fixed and the whole facade collapses. Some fucking recovery.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:23 | 4452516 j0nx
j0nx's picture

I don't think so. Mid 6's to 7's will be required before prices start to drop in high demand urban areas. I'm starting to come to the conclusion that we will never be buying another home in a desirable location in the DC area. Took me 5 years to reach par and unload the underwater hovel in the section 8/illegal infested manassas park area. Patiently waiting for single family homes in Fairfax to drop 30% but something tells me it aint going to happen...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:23 | 4451986 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

It certainly could be the weather.  We've had several weeks of pretty bad weather, which will prompt people to put off buying homes.  It could also be that more and more home purchases are being made in cash.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:25 | 4451996 theliberalliberal
theliberalliberal's picture

cold hard cash?

Pun-meister

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:27 | 4452006 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Yep, its the cold weather here in S. Florida that"s causing price drops.
Happens everytime it plunges below 70F.
Who knew ?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:59 | 4452134 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Perhaps I missed something.  I thought the statistics cited were national statistics, not South Florida statistics.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:31 | 4452021 DavrosoftheDaleks
DavrosoftheDaleks's picture

My wife and I have been looking at homes in the expensive Main Line burbs of Philly all winter long.  Oddly enough the inventory is low for homes put up by resident-owners, but the inventory of bank foreclosed houses is at an all time high.  Regardless we are hanging back a bit until we save more $ as both of us aren't confident in this economy.  If it was 2005/2006, we would have already owned a house by now, but the economy today still feels like crap.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 14:36 | 4453455 NCSpurs
NCSpurs's picture

Since 1988, over 9,000 people have been slain on the streets of Philadelphia, affecting every neighborhood in the city. To put that deadly toll in perspective, during the length of U.S. combat operations in the Iraq war, 3,517 American troops were killed in action - and 3,113 people were killed in Philadelphia. Why would you want to spend a ton of money to live in that shithole? I thought Zerohedge had bright readers.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:23 | 4451988 new game
new game's picture

ah yeaaa! seek causation!

the bastards!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:24 | 4451989 theliberalliberal
theliberalliberal's picture

Cant fill forms with frozen ink

Maybe the fed will stop printing too?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:09 | 4452170 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Warm the pen in your armpit and sign away.  We're all going to get rich.

 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:27 | 4452005 More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

I am so sick of these flatlining "recoveries"  Can we please just let shit crash and burn so we can get on with life.  I can handle the ups and downs, its the waiting 20 years to pull a trigger because it is all fake that blows.  This is like the everyone gets a trophy, but no one wins economy. Unless you were allready a big winner by being in the lucky sperm club, in that case who gives a rats ass

 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:31 | 4452025 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

The entire RE and stock market is a phony POS.  It's been that way for years. 

TPTB are going prop this pig up until the very end... that end could be years in the distance.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:08 | 4452166 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Or weeks away, who's to know?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:39 | 4452050 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Might as well get used to it. Otherwise you're inadvertently cheering on the next false-flag it will be blamed on.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:16 | 4452207 Duude
Duude's picture

Welcome to Japan.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:29 | 4452015 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

BULLISH!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:32 | 4452027 adr
adr's picture

Wait to see what $10lb ground chuck does to mortgage applications when it hits the supermarket. We're easily looking at $5.50 gas by May if the current pattern keeps up.

2007-2008 redux

The 1% will bleed every last drop out that they can before it collapses. One last mega ramp to cash out. Look at the gains in some stocks, Nat Gas, Oil. What used to be gains over a period of years made in days.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:28 | 4452533 j0nx
j0nx's picture

They are already warming up the California drought excuse for higher grocery prices this summer. Hadn't heard anything about $5.50 gas though. Either way these prices are chickens coming home to roost that the .gov desperately does not want people to know they caused.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:37 | 4452045 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Weather? We have had winter,summer,spring and fall for as far back as I can remember.

Looking back in history I note that it can and does get cold and snowy in the winter in many areas. Next thing you know "they" won't blame the weather they will be saying it's global warming causing mortgage apps to drop.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:39 | 4452051 new game
new game's picture

volatility before the great wooooosh. trigger appears to be an economy out of steam and a government that is out of control.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:49 | 4452086 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

I have owned an apartment complex for many years and we are currently experiencing the largest number of vacancies we have ever had. Many houses in the area are empty or under leased. In 2005 and 2006 prior to the housing collapse many people were looking at second homes, for investments or as a vacation getaway, today not only have they shed the extra home many have doubled up with family or friends reducing the need for housing.

We are pushing on a string and calling it demand when someone who can barely pay the rent is encouraged by the government to buy a house they can neither afford or maintain. We have a shortage of "qualified" buyers and renters. Building more houses and apartments is not the answer. Details of the bad policy of super low interest rastes below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/12/super-low-interest-rates-disservi...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 09:51 | 4452093 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Every few weeks I go to Trulia and search a few towns that I've always liked (ie Warwick, NY) and have noticed recently that about half way through my perusal, the RealtyTrac listings begin (Foreclosure/Lis Pendens).  So...approximately 50% of the listings are in forclosure.  WOW.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:11 | 4452176 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

we don't need no steen-keen mortgages!!!!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:15 | 4452196 Duude
Duude's picture

The housing market has radically changed post 2007. Homebuilding could only be called a depression when compared to pre-2008 levels of the last 50 years. But its not a depression, its a new world. The old housing market is history. More people will be lifetime renters.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:39 | 4452288 new game
new game's picture

another radical change is these homes are junk with 20-30 year life expectancy before major problems.  mold infested walls, windows with fogged thermal panes, settleage from  quick builds on marginal land, sheetrock quality, woodwork with cheap ass veneers, cabinets with no back bracing pulling away from walls, doors needing refit as they will not fit the jam. ect. ect. fucking junk.

i'm renting one now...eight years old and a piecer..

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:22 | 4452216 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

OPTICS OVER SUBSTANCE -

The Obozo regime has spoken.

COME ON GUYS, WE JUST HAVE TO BELIEVE!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:44 | 4452316 glossolalia
glossolalia's picture

CRASH! PLUNGE! COLLAPSE!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:15 | 4452484 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Fuck you lying cheerleaders at the National Association of Realtors!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:36 | 4452869 Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

 

In my region and other areas I monitor, home prices have reached the 'just before the bubble pop' of 2007.

And yet..., real income has dropped.

This drop is not because of the weather.

Really.

And the slightest rise in mortgage rates chokes off sales also. The margins are already squeezed by previous low rates.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:37 | 4452884 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

...causing Us markets to jump up to 4.5 billion year highs. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 13:23 | 4453101 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Banks will ahv eto push second TDs to get the borrowing going. If you have 3.5% FRM, you likely will not be refi'ing anytime soon. 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 17:47 | 4459359 earl swagger
earl swagger's picture

Jan 2014 Fed purchased 262% of current production with the new schedule. Jan. 2013 Fed purchased 129% under the old schedule. Fed is THE demand side of FNMA Fmbs trade.

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