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"Polar Vortex" Shock And Awe: The Utility Bill Arrives (And Why It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The "polar vortex" shock has arrived, only this time it is not in the form of another 12 inches of overnight snow accumulation but in the shape of household utility bills. A reader was kind enough to send us his just received ConEd bill for the month ended Februery 10. The result speaks for itself. It also speaks for where so much of US household disposable income will go in first quarter. Spoiler alert: not toward discretionary purchases.

 

If readers have more dramatic instances of the "Polar Vortex" invoice shock, please forward them to us at the usual address.

And unfrotunately it will get worse before it gets better. On the back of a rapid decline in the "glut" of low cost natural gas (as stockpiles are drawn down to the lowest level since 2004) and the shift in forecast (that the freezing weather could last well into March), Natural gas futures are soaring (up over 10% today). This is the highest front-month futures contract price since December 2008 as "the possibility of periodic shortages now looms."

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:10 | 4453609 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

Isn't that now referred to as the "sidelines?"

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:09 | 4453601 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

Ask the lobbyists about your bill.  Caviar isn't cheap. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:10 | 4453613 stant
stant's picture

mine was about 400 bucks this winter. regularly around 285ish. and we have cheapest rates in the country 6.89 per killowatt hr. the stack backfires out pipe when my kids get home from school. and the meter creates a gyroscopic vortex on that side of the house

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:29 | 4453753 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

meter creates a gyroscopic vortex on that side of the house

if you're open to woo-woo solutions, research orgonite.

http://www.orgoneproducts.org/orgone_chips.php

you can make them yourself very cheaply with metal shavings, plastic resin, and muffin trays, instructions online. couldn't hurt and might save ya a bundle.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:50 | 4453869 stant
stant's picture

oops .07744 here . forget what the that other# was off the bill

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:04 | 4453931 besnook
besnook's picture

we pay 40 something cents/kw here. this is the only place solar makes sense on it's own but we get the subsidy to install it anyway and the local utility is a bit upset at the demand.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:46 | 4455067 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Where are you? Hawaii or Alaska?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:53 | 4455092 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

We pay about .12 a KWh here for about $130 a month but I'm paying at least $600 a month for oul heat.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:13 | 4453633 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

I sure am glad Obama's EPA has been shutting down coal plants! Now we can invest in the greentech of the future...because that worked out so well for the Europeans.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:31 | 4453764 stant
stant's picture

and we will get the same deal that gasprom gives them

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 21:56 | 4455347 Seer
Seer's picture

And when coal runs out (or, as in the case of China, chokes the shit out of you)?

Nukes it is then!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:10 | 4455700 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

You got it, Thorium pebble bed, no GE nuke material pressurized water fFukushima crap for us

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:14 | 4453638 Magnum
Magnum's picture

If you're lucky enough to be a landlord like me, your Obama bumper sticker tenants stopped paying rent in January, were toasty warm for the two months it took you to kick them out, and the $1800 power/ utility bills are staring at you in the face along with three trailer loads of garbage they left behind. The beauty sink rammed into the laundry wall is yours to keep too.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:40 | 4453822 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Section 8 tenants?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:03 | 4453924 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

And the FED and elites on Wall Street are happy that you are taking the brunt of the consequences.

It's like "trickle down" just in the opposite direction, and you know how long it takes to reach it's destination.

Not excusing tenants - you have my sympathy - but this is how slow motion collapse looks.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:17 | 4453997 Magnum
Magnum's picture

I take it in stride. Can't win them all. New tenant shares no characteristics. I'm optimistic. Rental prop ownership is a decent hedge long term.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:35 | 4454602 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

I have a vacant property and people ask why I don't just rent it out?  First of all, I am trying to sell it so that takes renting off the table.  As you indicated, tenants will break shit and generally fuck up the property.  I plussed you but you are nuts if you think rental properties are a hedge.  All you will do is dump money.  I had a buddy who tried rental and he lost his ass and then the state came in after him.  High end rental is a different story.  If you are going be in the business of rentals then you have to be in that business 100%.  I can't see how it would be profitable as an ancillary income maker.  If I thought I could make money renting my other property then I would be doing it.

To each their own and if rentals are your business I wish you luck. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:45 | 4455057 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

I knew a guy who did just fine, although it would probably be considered illegal today. He had 17 single family homes in a good, midwestern suburb with a top-rated school district outside a top 20 municipality. It was a short commute to a Japanese auto plant. He advertised his rentals at the plant and signed up only Japanese to multi year leases. They always paid on time and never destroyed a property.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:22 | 4455457 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Kids are really hard on property.  The worst tenants have kids.  I prefer view homes and rent to couples. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:16 | 4455430 Magnum
Magnum's picture

I've done well with rental property.  Nice deal if live not too far away and deal with people well.  Good income.  Added bonus is that now nearly everyone has poor credit so the landlord can legally refuse to rent to almost anyone by saying its on credit issues.   New tenant is a computer programmer.  All is good my friend.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:36 | 4454367 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Perhaps odd, or not, among the many tons of garbage they left (yes, tons, over $300 in dump bills -- old household garbage piled high).  There was at least 1/4 trailer FULL of used fireworks.  I rarely spend more than $100 on fireworks, but the deadbeat Obama Bumper Sticker Tenants (OBST) left behind hundreds of spent elaborate firework tubes.  At least $2000 worth.  I guess this kind of waste, lack of ethics, dumping trash on others, it fits the attitude of many OBST.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 21:02 | 4455122 Grouchy Marx
Grouchy Marx's picture

Tip: I pay a realtor friend one months rent to screen and backround check prospective tenants. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but this has worked for me. In my state it takes 6 months to evict. You have my sympathy re: your OBST.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 03:57 | 4456401 Magnum
Magnum's picture

I have a work history that involves doing background checks.  All I need is a name and I can dig up all kinds of things.  My state court system has a website, you can get case records online and/or visit the courthouse and read the entire file.  I use a tenant screening company for $18 each I get a credit report.  I know how to do the criminal report myself.  I call previous landlords.  All of this I do myself and don't need to sacrifice a whole month for screening.  

Here it takes only 3-6 weeks to evict but it's expensive.  Basically the best move is to beg/bribe your deadbeats to LEAVE.  There is no money with these people so I will never recover anything.  I sucked up and ate the power bills and hauled off their garbage (blech and got rid of baby mamma beauty sink).  These OBST were young, hadn't get screwed up their credit, and I gave them a chance.  They turned out to be pigs.  

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:00 | 4455369 Seer
Seer's picture

Who is the smart one(s) here?

New to the business, or are you late?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:15 | 4453643 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That's what NY gets when it wants to move all generation to NG/Renewable.  Good luck keeping your lines at 60hz NYISO

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:16 | 4453649 beentheredonethat
beentheredonethat's picture

Wait, krugman said if aliens attacked tonight and broke our windows we would all have jobs. The polar vortex alien attacked so there will be a lot of utility worker jobs now.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:02 | 4455374 Seer
Seer's picture

Well, WWII DID bring the US out of the Depression! </sarc>

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:17 | 4453660 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Now should I skip out on my electricity bill or my Obamacare premium? 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:08 | 4453942 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

Pay the Obamacare. That way you're covered for treatment of hypothermia. Once you meet the deductible.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:02 | 4455383 Seer
Seer's picture

If you have to ask then that means that you should skip both (because you cannot afford either).

Next question.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:18 | 4453665 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

My nat. gas/electric bill wasn't bad at all for January and that bill is always the highest of the season (here in SE PA); $420.  I was positive I would break the $500 barrier, but no.

I did get a brand new, much more efficient gas furnace in the Fall of 2012.  It seems to be making a big difference.  I don't worry too much about my energy bills anymore.  They are no longer the worst of my expenses.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:06 | 4455397 Seer
Seer's picture

Thanks for reminding us that there are things we PERSONALLY can do to help (own) OURSELVES.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:22 | 4453700 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

who coulda known?

 

http://chistletoe.blogspot.com/2013/11/gas.html

 

oh, I'm a landlord too.  warmest digs and cheapest rates in town.

The snow and ice brought down some delicious oak trees across the road, so I made friends with the cops while I helped myself to free heat ....

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:29 | 4453750 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

My propane bills Dec 10 $2.37/gallon vs.  Feb 12 $4.50/gallon. I expect to see many a manufactured shortage in the future as a mechanism for hiding the effects of runaway inflation.......

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:25 | 4453921 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Having stocks at 5 year lows all the while exporting 400,000 barrels a day of propane goes a long way to explain your situation...

I love it how the bean counters get to count domestic propane production as "oil" but allow the export of it in spite of laws banning the export of domestic "oil"....

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:09 | 4455409 Seer
Seer's picture

It's all pretty much fucked up.  I figure that the regional agreements that transcend borders (Canada and Mexico) make things look a little funny: kind of hard to say you won't export to a country from where you're importing from- different regions, such as with Canada).

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:19 | 4455732 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Here are the exports

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MPREXUS2&f=M

They are all from the Gulf Coast

And they are going everywhere

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_a_EPLL_EEX_mbblpd_m.htm

Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:31 | 4453766 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

With electric rates this high it will cost the FED $.02 to create $65 billion of digital QE a month.

Which will for sure make the cost greater than the benefit to the economy.

 

 

   

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:11 | 4455416 Seer
Seer's picture

So, along the lines of buying silver to help crash JP Morgan folks can use up a bunch of electricity to push prices up on electricity in order to crush the Fed? <snark>

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:34 | 4453786 Spungo
Spungo's picture

"So the economic softmess IS because of the weather?"

It's bad when the polar vortex causes your energy bills to explode. It's good when inflation causes your energy bills to explode. Report to the ministry of economics for further re-education.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:12 | 4455418 Seer
Seer's picture

Don't worry, be happy! </sarc>

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:37 | 4453805 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

How to Heat Your Home With Beer Cans

note : perhaps a paid advert, but one can easily DIY the design on the page if so inclined.

 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:11 | 4454511 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

It would get awfully hot in here.;-)

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:37 | 4453808 YouAreBliss
YouAreBliss's picture

http://www.abc27.com/story/24684770/power-companies-shocking-customers-w...

 

HARRISBURG, Pa. (WHTM) -

"I'm very angry," said Andy Wolfe, a policeman in the Midstate.

Wolfe, who lives in Adams County, is upset about his most recent electricity bill from Pennsylvania Gas and Electric. He typically paid between $300 and $400 for electricity through Met Ed.

This month?

"Just under $2,400."

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:18 | 4454286 Hulk
Hulk's picture

But shutting down those coal fired plants was good, right ?

Good thing Obama didn't screww with Healthcare, otherwise we would be broke...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:26 | 4454327 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

If he is heating with electric, he is a complete and utter fool....

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:19 | 4455445 Seer
Seer's picture

Um, this FAILS to note HOW MUCH electricity was consumed!

It would be like me saying that last year my grocery bill was $300/mo and this year it's $600 and failing to state that I'm getting more groceries, that I'm making more meals!

"I signed up for a six-cent rate but didn't read the fine print about it being a variable rate."

So, because this "cop" FAILED to read what his contract was (something that is important to you should require that you give it meaningful attention) it's a calamity, it's because of Obama, of shutting down coal plants (that either do or don't exist in the area)?

Yeah, I get it that this is pretty shitty to stuff shit in "fine print," but this has been a "fine print" world for quite a while now.  Evolve or die, that's how nature deals with it.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:42 | 4453828 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

No, you do not want NatGas running your Escalade or F150.

My utility company just keeps raising rates on everything, wish I had a monopoly.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:08 | 4454502 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

At least after you get your monopoly you will be qualified to run for Senate.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:25 | 4455471 Seer
Seer's picture

My dependence on my local utility is negligible.  It is, however, a publicly controlled (yeah, "socialist") entity that has to actually inform its customers of plans and to "negotiate" rate increases: most rate increases are due to costs associated with their purchases from powe-generating facilities.  I've always had a much higher regard for this utility than for any non-publically-controllled communications entities (one that starts with "V" can fucking burn to the ground for all I care- I'd bring marshmallows).

My heating costs are increasing due to it taking longer for me to cut wood- I'm getting older...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:47 | 4453856 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Nothing a bit more debt won't solve.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:51 | 4453871 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

You guys never learn. This creates "pent up demand" they will tell us. And, since the mkt is forward looking about 6 months, it will be sunny and 80s. So rally on!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:52 | 4453876 L_Conquistador
L_Conquistador's picture

If I'm not mistaken, doesn't energy production get included in the "domestic manufacturing" numbers?   Looks like some fodder for government's misleading "recovery" stories here. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:27 | 4455478 Seer
Seer's picture

Well, um, markets go up when oil prices go up (or had been doing so).  And, remediation of toxic dumps creates GDP.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:54 | 4453885 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

"The possibility of periodic shortage looms"

Here we go again, we're all going to die ahhhhh! Now some commentator will talk about lack of refining or distribution resources because the US is stitting on trillions of metric tons of NG. Iran has lack of refinement. Gee why don't they build more?

If you want to know WHEN to invest these days into something ask your Senator. But it will cost you :/0

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:54 | 4453890 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Now we will be reminded once again, why paying the mortgage goes WAY DOWN ON THE LIST OF BILLS TO PAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:29 | 4455489 Seer
Seer's picture

Well, that's the story for the bulk of our "replacements" who are sitting in our basements.  The bill for that 4G connection is at the top of the list: mortgage? electricity/NG?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:56 | 4453902 Irene
Irene's picture

No worries folks! It's not like increasing energy costs are going to change the core CPI.  /s

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:31 | 4455500 Seer
Seer's picture

Excellent!

We've got to become more cat-like!  If a cat can't see you then you can't see the cat.  If you don't see something then that something doesn't exist!  I think we ought to remove EVERYTHING from that silly CPI list, that way there would be ZERO to worry about!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 15:56 | 4453904 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

ALL HAIL THE NEW AMERICAN PETROSTATE...THE SHALE REVOLUTION...THE ENERGY RENAISSANCE in AMERICA....clearly it is working...if we dig much more gas out of the ground, I will go bankrupt.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:02 | 4453926 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Couldn't say it better myself...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:08 | 4453946 walküre
walküre's picture

they need to cover 100s of acres in the desert with mirrors to really make us cry

bring it central bankers and central planners!

morons, statists, waste of space nothing-for-good-ever motherfleckers

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:20 | 4454295 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

At the time that it was planned, it was not clear that panels could compete with CSP. And that plants like that would be the most cost effective way...

Ten years ago, I for one though CSP would prevail, clearly, I was wrong...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:33 | 4455508 Seer
Seer's picture

So, you're thinking that private entities like Enron would be better? (note: NOTHING is going to "solve" our "problems")

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:07 | 4453941 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Meanwhile this is in the pipeline

45 hours out

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/12/nam-hires_namer_045_sim_refle...

Oh, in case you are wondering, Night of the Living Vortex will be back

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/cpc-temps-feb19.gif

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:08 | 4453945 swass
swass's picture

This looks like a super nice inverse head and shoulders setup potential.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:14 | 4453977 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

So this means the weather increased GDP, right???

Because yesterday the weather reduced it. Need clarity.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:34 | 4454077 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

I have gas, and that is why I shit when I saw my  bill; too much chilli.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:50 | 4454146 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

Er,Commercial Real Estate on the ropes (think empty shopping malls),everyones credit maxed out,and now the cost to heat and light some of these enormous shopping malls.

NO PROBLEM HERE. MOVE ALONG.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:38 | 4455541 Seer
Seer's picture

You know, as fucked up as those malls are the're nowhere near as fucked up as this:

http://paradiseintheworld.com/palm-islands-dubai/

Nothing says "unsustainable excess" like Palm Island.

Oh!  A few years back Haliburton relocated to Dubai.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 16:59 | 4454196 general ambivalent
general ambivalent's picture

Russian stoves, see what Mark Twain says.

http://www.russianstove.com/brickyard/staticpages/markt.htm

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:34 | 4455022 Grouchy Marx
Grouchy Marx's picture

Link to construction details? 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 21:15 | 4455180 tip e. canoe
Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:20 | 4455453 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

More like this

I got one in my house in Mexico - works great. But in my opinion for new construction you are better off with spray foam super insulating techniques; it’s like living in a thermos bottle with the residual heat from the fridge, lights etc keep the house warm. 

 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:43 | 4455570 Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah, masonry stoves are great.  I know that they're heavily used up in the Scandinavian countries: thought that that's where they originated, but...

Another concept:

http://www.richsoil.com/rocket-stove-mass-heater.jsp

No affiliation (just grabbed the first link that popped up).

My house can stay warm long after my stove has exhausted its wood.  Often when I get a summy day the stove isn't stoked all day from the previous night's fire and I can readily have temps in the 70s. (passive solar with mass is the same concept as the masonry stove- intense heat charge into mass and then coast)

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:00 | 4454454 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Electric bills are up 10% in MN.  It was already expensive enough despite the fact we have nukes in this state.  Who is going to argue with the electric company and win? 

Propane?  That is a different story.  Most folks do not own their own tank but I do, so I can shop around.  I bought propane at $1.31 a gallon in July on a pre-buy deal.  I still had 40% left in January when I saw this shitstorm coming so I ordered anyway and locked in at $2.75 per gallon which I thought was ridiculous.  By the time they delivered, propane was $6 a gallon and you couldn't even get it without waiting for weeks and even then could only buy so much at a time.

So what was the general public's response?  Outrage, and of course, the standard "We need the .gov to fix this for us." as well as the usual petitioning of the state.  A couple of local politicians mumbled some platitudes and then were heard no more.  I'm sure there will be more to come though as the politicos debate how they can best take advantage of the situation to make themselves look like heroes.  It will likely involve some sort of minimal rebate checks from the state based on income.  The sheep will think that is great and that their elected officials did something for them all the while not realizing that they were simply redistributing the loot minus the excessive administrative costs of .gov.  Sound familiar?

Another way to look at it is this way; a lot of people are not going to pay their bills because they cannot afford to pay.  Many of these propane service providers are smaller co-ops or smaller businesses and they had to buy at sky high wholesale prices so they have massive costs that need to be recovered.  If no one can pay the bill what will happen to them?  They will go bankrupt of course but the demand for energy will not go away so it makes you wonder who is doing this?  Perhaps I am mistaken but it sure looks like a consolidation play to me.  The more you read up on it the more you realize that the propane "shortage" was scripted.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:14 | 4454522 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The more you really read about it you find out that PADD2 stocks were already at low levels last November after strong demand to dry a large wet corn harvest...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/propane-inventories-fall-to-low...

Please note the date.....

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:28 | 4455482 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Flak, I will see your link and raise you one link for now.  There is another link you just have to see and perhaps I will go find it later.  It involved all sorts of railroad work and pipeline work starting at very odd times when there was nothing wrong that anyone knows of.  The supply chain was totally disrupted causing an artificial shortage.  It ought to help out the plumbers union though.  Railroads?  Let me see, do railroads have unions?  Pipefitters?  Yes they do.  It was done on purpose.

Flak, don't fool yourself.  This was done against Walker of Wisconsin to tell him to shut up.

http://www.prairiebizmag.com/event/article/id/17644/

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:23 | 4455746 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yawn....

Quit the conspiracy ideation, it only makes you look like a loon...

Seriously.... 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:39 | 4455998 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

You want to have a go Flak?  Most of your posts are worthless shit.  That is not a conspiracy but rather fact.  Are you ready to go?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 01:26 | 4456103 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Instead of making shit up, why don't you take a hint look at the historical levels in PADD2 propane stocks and demonstrate that the stocks and flows were manipulated or showed an irregular pattern...  

I even gave you the fucking link with all the data. Download it into Excel and show us what you got... And don't forget the NG Plant component here

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MPRSNP21&f=M

Do some real fucking investigative work instead on projecting nonsense...

And if you show that the propane stocks/flows in the midwest were manipulated I'll will gladly eat crow here and admit I was wrong...

The ball is in your court...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 02:27 | 4456233 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

That don't demonstrate shit. You do understand what a tautology is, do you?

Show me the the supply wasn't tighter than a bulls ass in flytime even before the cold weather...

I demonstrated that in November stocks were at 14 year lows for that time of year..

=======

BTW, this is from your link

In the Midwest, propane is used for both drying agricultural crops and heating homes and businesses. For corn to be stored, it first needs to be dried, using large-scale heaters that often use propane for fuel. A late-2013 corn harvest, along with cold, wet weather, resulted in strong demand for propane at distribution terminals in the Upper Midwest. For the week ending November 1, 2013, Midwest propane inventories dropped more than 2 million barrels, the largest single-week stock draw in any November since 1993. This demand prompted a strong upward price response, and propane at Conway moved to a 3-cent-per-gallon (gal) premium over Mont Belvieu during the first week of November, the first such premium in almost three years.

Check this out... stocks were at 5 years lows as early as Feb 2013 and they never recovered:

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/figure6.pdf

In fact you can see that nationally propane stocks have been at the low end for many months...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 05:29 | 4456474 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Really?  You act like I wrote it.  That does not change the fact that you are a dickhead.  Years worth of your ZH posts will clarify that fact.  You are simply an asshole.  Forget LNG.  I did not say you were worthless but only rather near to it.  Want to drag out the gold and silver markets?  You seem so smart.  Want to talk about those markets Mr. Expert?  Your call. 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 09:39 | 4456855 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It all came from the your link. You know, the data that purported to support your position...

So now I am a dickhead because I call you out in a public forum for your demonstrably completely asinine statements...

Pride goeth before a fall buddy.... 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:44 | 4456005 Seer
Seer's picture

I actually don't find it all that far-fetched.  This is high-stakes stuff.  That said, I'm pretty certain that it would be the death-knell of these uniions if this were to be established as fact.

And no, I have no interest in supporting Walker, nor any union.  I just want to deal with facts (non-emotionally, no Party Pussy stuff).  My position is that this is a finite world and that it is CERTAIN that at some point, as long as we continue with our current extraction rates of resoruces, we WILL exhaust shit and that it will make these disturbances look rather petty.

It's all going over the cliff.  The color of the vehicle has little to do with it's trajectory (which was formed a LONG time ago).

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 01:24 | 4456121 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Sorry, I got a bit carried away there but I will fight back Seer.  I do not see any conspiracy but rather action as it is.  I have no faith in any political party and that should be patently known by now.  How I can get myself involved is an art unto itself.  I only want to see what they are doing from an inside perspective.  Seer, you know I am a reasonable man.  I do not see how politics enters into the situation of LNG markets unless you look at what happened.  It was meant to be a market ruse.

As for Flak, I will call it off for now....sort of...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 01:34 | 4456150 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Just so you know, propane ain't LNG...

Propane can be classified as LPG...

Get your facts straight...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 01:44 | 4456170 fuu
fuu's picture

Not to stick my head in the lion's mouth but it would not be outside the realm of possibilty: http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/comm-response.pdf

"Key findings were that markets for natural gas and electricity in California are 

inextricably linked and that the artificially inflated increases in spot gas prices 

contributed to the rise in electricity prices. The problems in the natural gas market 

appeared to stem, in part, from efforts to manipulate price indices compiled by trade 

publications."

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 02:16 | 4456251 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yeah, Enron (among others) were a bunch of cocksuckers...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 02:23 | 4456262 fuu
fuu's picture

It was a pretty big list:

 

Enron Power Marketing, Inc. Docket No. EL03-180-000

 and Enron Energy Services Inc.

Aquila, Inc. Docket No. EL03-181-000

City of Glendale, California Docket No. EL03-182-000

City of Redding, California Docket No. EL03-183-000

Colorado River Commission Docket No. EL03-184-000

Constellation Power Source, Inc. Docket No. EL03-185-000

Coral Power, LLC Docket No. EL03-186-000

El Paso Merchant Energy, L.P. Docket No. EL03-187-000

Eugene Water and Electricity Board Docket No. EL03-188-000

Idaho Power Company Docket No. EL03-189-000

Koch Energy Trading, Inc. Docket No. EL03-190-000

Las Vegas Cogeneration, L.P. Docket No. EL03-191-000

MIECO Docket No. EL03-192-000

Modesto Irrigation District Docket No. EL03-193-000

Montana Power Company Docket No. EL03-194-000

Morgan Stanley Capital Group Docket No. EL03-195-000

Northern California Power Agency Docket No. EL03-196-000

PacifiCorp Docket No. EL03-197-000

PECO Docket No. EL03-198-000

Powerex Corporation Docket No. EL03-199-000

 (f/k/a British Columbia Power

 Exchange Corporation)

Public Service Company of New Mexico Docket No. EL03-200-000

Sempra Energy Trading Corporation Docket No. EL03-201-000

TransAlta Energy Marketing (U.S.) Inc. Docket No. EL03-202-000

 and TransAlta Energy Marketing

 (California), Inc.

Valley Electric Association, Inc. Docket No. EL03-203-000

http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Order-ShowCauseConcerningGamingandorAnoma...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:51 | 4455604 Seer
Seer's picture

"They will go bankrupt of course but the demand for energy will not go away so it makes you wonder who is doing this?  Perhaps I am mistaken but it sure looks like a consolidation play to me.  The more you read up on it the more you realize that the propane "shortage" was scripted."

I can think conspiracy as well as the next guy, but sometimes one has to step back and take it as an incentive to adjust now before it's more than just a ploy.  It's quite possible that folks failed to negotiate for supplies and were caught having to buy into higher market costs (the wholesale buyers- same as with individual buyers- best time to buy a fan/aairconditioning unit isn't when it's scorching hot out).

I'm certain that there's a component of squeezing out the competition, the smaller folks.  This happens in all downturns.  It sucks to see the big monopolies forming, but there's little that can be done about it: size allows for economies of scale.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:23 | 4455748 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

I can not disagree with you Seer and you know I respect you.  It has been a play though and it has hurt a lot of people.  Most people do not look at things like we do.  I can only tell you what happened but if something has already happened then it is too late prevent it. 

I looked up what was going on and found some interesting information.  I am not going to post a shitload of links here on LNG.  I truly did read up and what I found was alarming.  Someone made a decision to work on both the gas pipeline and the rail lines at the same time.

Consider the source, but this has more than something to do with it.  If you have other data I would love to see it.

 

Always a pleasure Seer.

 

  http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14711

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:40 | 4455814 Seer
Seer's picture

You know me, I like to temper things...

Again, I have no doubt that there are manipulations going on; but, when has that never been the case?  I do believe that businesses either can see or sense the writing on the wall and that the only(?) goal is to become TBTF*.  I can marvel at the tiger, but that don't mean that I am OK with sticking my head in one's mouth.  I'm just looking to point out that much that's going on is due to the circomstances that the world now finds itself in and that it's best to take this as a cue: after all, most folks here did sense things some time ago, and, I'm hoping, that we're better situated as a result; this is another one of those things that should provide a clear reminder to distance ourselves from such things.  I cannot stop the pain that will come to many others; it's not my job (I"m not Jesus [my wife reminds me of that- to not be a martyr]).  I could make myself feel better by stating that I didn't engage in much of the pleasure that many had, so it kind of comes even.  I'm not real found of either screaming (in excitement) or squealing (in pain), I am, as I wrote in the first sentence, more tempered.

* Reminds me of one startup company that I worked for.  People were just WAY too occupied with the notion of selling out the company and they forgot that the real aim was to create the best product possible.  I wasn't in management or anything, but I spoke out at one meeting pointing this out (everyone was all charged about getting "stock options").

And, as always, a pleasure to have you here too, Manipuflation: I enjoy reading others write stuff that actually comes from real thought.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:31 | 4455972 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

You are reasonable Seer and I appreciate your posts.  Your point is well taken.  Do not read too far into what I wrote.  Their worries are not my problem but one does need to have a heart.  What if I found you laying in the ditch and hurt?  I will pick you up and take you where you need to go for help but it ends there.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:59 | 4456053 Seer
Seer's picture

Ah, goose bumps :-)  But, seriously, that's exaclty how things should work.  You're your own thinker, and I respect that in a person.

But what if you were really hungry, and you know... ha ha! (always be flexible!)

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 01:32 | 4456146 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Looks like fight club for us on Flak.  That guy is a douche.  I am calling spade.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 01:35 | 4456153 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Don't flatter yourself...

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 03:15 | 4456347 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

I won't forget Flak,  It's not all about me though.  Somebody had to say it and you decided to crack on me.  No one said you had to reply to me.  I am not the right one to fuck with when you piss me off.  Consider it a margin call.  You are called, don't talk to me anymore if you can't pay up.  You are an annoying bastard most of the time.  Get your shit right or shut the fuck up.

Your turn.  

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 03:27 | 4456364 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Buddy, thats the whole idea, my shit is always screwed on straight.. I am *very* careful about that, it has something to do with credibility....

Take your bitchslapping (like the one I gave Mr. 42 above) like a man and remember this is Fight Club...

And its only personal when you make it that way...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 03:58 | 4456404 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Damn right it is fight club.  I told you it is not fun to fight with me.  You are calming down and that is good.  You have to calmed down now a bit.  I know you are old school ZH but so am I.  We decided to tangle tonight.  No one hates you and least of all me.  You have have been a dickhead though.  What else do you want me to say?  Hey Dipshit, I would help you out even though you act like a jerk sometimes. 

You know what?  Maybe we are both jackasses.

 

Remember, you fucked with me first. 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:48 | 4457152 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Really? 

Grow up and take your lumps like a man for christs sake...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 19:01 | 4454703 F em all but 6
F em all but 6's picture

Back in the early 80's, I bought 10 acreas of land for 27,500. About 23 miles straight south from the Mall of America. People thought I was crazy for paying that much. Built a nice log home and then in 96, I sold my Harley and used the cash to put up a 20k wind turbine. From there on out, no electric bill and no heat bill. In 97, I put in a 4 ton closed loop geothermal heat pump. With off peak power, total cost to heat and cool (if I had an electric bill) would have been $29 per month. I remember natural gas spiked to around 14/therm and people freaked out. Had friends with 600 heating bills.

In 06, I doubled the size of my house to 3400 sf and added a 5 ton hydronic geothermal heat pump for infloor heat. Still no heat bill and no electric bill. As a matter of fact, as of today I am running about 150 credit on my power bill.

Look to the future and Hedge accordingly. The real shitstorm hasnt even hit yet.

 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 19:26 | 4454805 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well played sir, well played indeed...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:37 | 4455032 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

How much do you have invested in your well fields?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:42 | 4455822 F em all but 6
F em all but 6's picture

No wells. Slinky system which is basically 5  100 ft runs of coiled tubing. All buried 8 ft deep. Water table is high so its all in ground water. Excellent heat transfer and stable loop temps. I hired an excavator to dig the trnches and I performed all the labor. I suppose that the ground loop costs labor and materials was around 4500 back in 97

 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:55 | 4455626 Seer
Seer's picture

Applaud for being proactive.  But... 3,400 sq ft?  How many people?  Buildings require maintenance: you name it I've studied it- even log homes, so I have a pretty good idea about construction materials and maintenance issues.

Did you orient your house to maximize passive solar?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:33 | 4455784 F em all but 6
F em all but 6's picture

 

4 people. Maintenance is a challenge on the south side. Not much passive solar, but waste heat from Heatpump in AC mode provides all hot water needs. 

Plan on building solar panels for hot water needs when AC isnt running.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:28 | 4455962 Seer
Seer's picture

Just an FYI (because I sense that you're the curious type like myself)- You can create an outbuilding to do passive solar work for you.  It's a bit more clumsy but it's viable.  It's kind of like setting up solar panels out in the yard or such, not on one's rooftop (because of poor alignment).  Basically a heat exchanger.  The building's more of something to attach/prop up the panels to- you then make pipe runs to the main house.

I'm guessing, because I really don't know and I don't have the inclination (no time) to try and calculate how much I"m saving in energy via passive solar gain: I figure that my head would explode from the calcs.  Pretty sure that I'm a good 15% if not 20%.  If one equates this in wood terms then that means that I hae to cut, haul and stack (and haul again into the house) 15% to 20% less wood.

Solar water heating was something that I felt the best about, that it provided the best return.  Visited one guy who had a house with a drain-down system (in a freeze area)- he'd shut it down in winter and run his water through coils around his wood cook stove.  Now, there is one amazing device- the wood cook stove!  It cooks food, heats your home and heats your water!  In another life I'd be utilizing one of these...

Anyway, before I miss the opportunity to do so, I'd like to acknowledge that I like ground-loop heat pumps.  For tech-like stuff they're good.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 19:42 | 4454861 JailBanksters
JailBanksters's picture

I can see why they changed it from Jetstream to Polar Vortex

Polar Vortex shock and awe, just sounds so much sexier than Jetstream shock and awe.

Ooooo it's a Vortex, just like a Vacuum cleaner sucking up all that debt, the more debt it sucks up the bigger the Vortex which sucks up even more debt.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:26 | 4454999 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

vortex, winter storms with names??? iluminatti speak..

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:03 | 4455660 Seer
Seer's picture

Apples and oranges.

The jet stream is upper atmosphere (you know, where Jets airplanes travel).  The "polar vortex" is a deep (down to ground level) air mass that we can experience with our feet on the ground.  Oh, and while jet streams are constant "polar vortexes" are not (they're seasonal, and, based on the hyped name, are of a less frequent nature than other cold air masses sinking into the continental US).

Never been a vacuum repairman, though I have repaired several vacuums.  I have worked in weather.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:16 | 4454956 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

'

'

'

The second the tempurature goes below 45°F, the bastard traders start piling in, driving up the price for the folks on the back end.

I'm betting that the fuckers that own the energy, have subsiduaries that meddle in the finance markets to drive up the prices for them.

They're crying all the way to the banks.

 

Bring on the home-based Thorium solution!

•?•
V-V

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:19 | 4454970 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I've got gas.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:31 | 4455017 Grouchy Marx
Grouchy Marx's picture

Swallow some mercaptan, then, so we get warning.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:23 | 4454989 Cornholiovanderbilt
Cornholiovanderbilt's picture

Now maybe those new York fruckers will become new York frackers

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:32 | 4455018 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"In my Administration (dictatorship), the cost of Energy will necessarily Increase."

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:35 | 4455025 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

NY is not alone, the West Coast is getting raped too http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/feb/18/tp-grid-costs-mount-after-nuk...  and is scheduled for huge future rape

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:05 | 4455670 Seer
Seer's picture

Raped?  Worse than the folks in Fukushima?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:44 | 4455052 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

investor owned energy companies. bend over and spread your cheeks bitchez. thirty five cents a kwh? the ceo sez lulz out loud. oh well, joo york shitty is rolling in clownbux, they can afford it.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:23 | 4455680 Seer
Seer's picture

"investor owned energy companies."

Just like "investor owned" everything...

No doubt in my mind that things are being milked.  I also, however, realize that this party will only last so long, that eventually resource depletion is going to pull the plug on the milking; and, somehow I think that won't necessarily put everyone's minds at ease...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 20:58 | 4455106 RottenAlpha
RottenAlpha's picture
Wed, 02/19/2014 - 21:06 | 4455135 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I'm sure I have most of you beat, at least in the residential areana. $420 electric bill, around 75 gallons of propane and 1 cord of firewood in Janruary.  That's not a misprint.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 21:16 | 4455186 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

$Natgas nearly doubles in price in four months... Yeah, thats an "Orderly Market". The grain markets look next up to bat.

Good thing "Volatile" food and energy prices are not inflationary. Load up on peanut butter and jelly while you can afford them.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 21:41 | 4455283 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you really think this move in NG is inflation??

Gotta lay off the stupid sauce buddy...

And you are probably right, the grain markets will go if there is the slightest hint of a subpar crop..

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 08:40 | 4456672 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

There is "no inflation" in the new normal, therefore the rise in $Natgas is due to poor energy policy and weather. As you know, in the new normal we can't have ZIRP if we have inflation, so anything that is increasing in price for any reason is not calculated as inflation. When your cost of living is double your wages it won't be called "inflation", it will be called tough shit.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 09:52 | 4456904 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Poor energy policy???

C'mon, since when does the fastest ever increase in NG production (up ~30%, ~6 TCF p.a. in 5 years) equate to poor energy policy...

Quit projecting...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:02 | 4457466 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

When you have supply up the wazooo and can't deliver.... Good energy Policy? Supply up 30%, price up 80%.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:03 | 4457487 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Beg pardon, are you advocating central planning?

The MLPs have been laying all kinds of pipe... Just not fast enough...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 21:17 | 4455191 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

How big is your igloo ?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:08 | 4455688 Seer
Seer's picture

Good thing that you're rich.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 21:46 | 4455305 djsmps
djsmps's picture

Polar Vortex? The last two days the national news has been screaming about the Pothole Vortex.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:21 | 4455455 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

This will show up as economic growth but it is a great example of the "wrong kind of growth." We must differentiate the kinds of economic growth and understand that all growth is not created equal. If you spend money but afterwards have little to show for it you have wasted it. Sadly, much of the money America "invests in itself" each year through government spending and programs falls into this category. We need the right kind of economic growth to propel us forward. It must be sustainable, with a purpose, well directed, and have long lasting benefits. The post below delves into how important it is to look at how and where money is being spent.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/01/false-demand-fuels-wrong-kind-of-...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:20 | 4455738 Seer
Seer's picture

"We need the right kind of economic growth to propel us forward. It must be sustainable, with a purpose, well directed, and have long lasting benefits. The post below delves into how important it is to look at how and where money is being spent."

Do you work for Madison Avenue?

"propel us forward"

"sustainable"

You CAN NOT USE the word "GROWTH" here!   It is IMPOSSIBLE to have sustainable growth on a finite planet!

No fucking clue who "Bruce WIlds" is, but I think this person needs to understand simple math and physics.  I'd recommend watching Dr. Albert Bartlett's presentation Arithmetic, Population and Energy.  Anyone who watches this and still insists that there can be "sustinable growth" needs to be locked up and the key tossed away (at the very least not allowed out in public).

Fun fact for ya: a 2005 World Bank report showed 455 million people in India living on $1.25/day or less. (maybe we should ask them the importance of looking at where the money is spent?)

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:26 | 4455473 laomei
laomei's picture

Wow, sucks for you guys I guess.  Here's what I pay:

Electric: 0.49 RMB per kw/h.  About 8 cents

Gas: 2.05 RMB per cubic meter.  About 34 cents

Heating: We've got city heat managed by property management, who do not have a valid service contract, so we just don't pay and it's still illegal for them to shut it off.  So... free.  If we get all that resolved, it works out to about $2.30 a day, except that our little complex is rather profitable, which means that this is subsidized and based on the last lawsuit we launched, not only is it free, but they owe us about $50 a month in other subsidies.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 22:45 | 4455580 joego1
joego1's picture

You pay more by the air that you breathe for buring so much filthy coal.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:34 | 4455791 laomei
laomei's picture

Not really. Coal is pretty much done in Beijing, it's more or less all been converted to natural gas.  Out in the burbs there's some coal left, but that's on the slate for conversion/removal as well.  Believe it or not, a lot of that OMG POLLUTION stuff is flat out propaganda.  The US embassy data is fake, because it's easy to fake and impossible to verify the setup.  The us stations ignore humidity and weigh moisture as pollution.  You see this every time it rains, as there are hilarious spikes that make no sense.  It's a genius move, I'll give em that, but it's fake.  Watch the satellite images and watch humidity and pressure system stats and it all makes perfect sense.  Not saying that pollution doesn't exist, but it's not nearly as big of a deal as they claim.  

 

Furthermore, PM2.5 is a scam.  The only study done on it was deeply flawed and very small in sample size, which resulted in no significant finding... until they weighted it and massaged it to show an extra 2 people died, and then extrapolated it.  You've gotta get to PM0.1 and lower before you can see anything even remotely dangerous.  As it stands now, on those horrid days that are touted by the press, you're talking about the equivalent of a quarter of a smoke assuming you're outside in it all day long.  For PM2.5 it's not the size that matters, it's the composition, which is never analyzed, as it tends to cast into doubt the legitimacy of the PM2.5 hype.  

 

Back in the day, there was a persistent cloud of pollution at about the 14~16th floor level.  You'd see the black lines, windows were best if never opened.  Depending on the weather, that band could go as low as 10th and as high as 18th.  You could see it just sitting there out the window.  Winters were endless silent-hillesque experiences. Rain would leave mud spots.  Falling snow would leave mud spots.  Sand storms would leave thick layers of yellow dust containing god knows what from the far reaches of the Gobi Desert.  Now... it's just foggy, some stuff lingering in it of course, but not too bad.  On an average day I can see the mountains to the north and west without issue.  The PR push by the US is essentially pointed at ignoring the progress that has been made and rile people up.  Great move by the US, as the Chinese government could publish all the real data they wanted and the response by the US would be to call it fake and mock it, regardless of who carried it out.  The Chinese press is also just about the only ones who would carry that story, as all western media would ignore it, regardless of who carried out that research.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:25 | 4455956 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Noted. Thx Mr Chinese Data.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 01:41 | 4456174 Seer
Seer's picture

I pretty much believe that there's a lot of propaganda going on and that the US has been working overtime in this department for quite a few years now, since it's become obvious that there's no way out for the US and its debt, and with China being a big holder of USTs...

I don't, however, believe that China will avoid toally hammering the shit out of their environment as long as they continue on their insane growth path.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:22 | 4455744 Seer
Seer's picture

Sure, that sounds perfectly predictable and sustainable to me... NOT!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:28 | 4455963 laomei
laomei's picture

It actually is. Higher usage gets charged higher rates and business has higher rates which subsidize the public usage.  Coal is being cut back for natural gas in the short term and latest generation nuclear with an emphasis on being convertible in the future to thorium systems.  Also a whole shitload of solar and wind which is not being fully utilized as the grid is being upgraded to handle the capacity.

 

Centralized heating is also FAR more efficient than burning it yourself, and allows for better pollution controls.  The big move towards gas systems for it were from back in the horrid 07-08 winter when coal delivery was interrupted.  Coal is just not as controllable as gas, and as such, gas is preferred as well as less polluting.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 23:22 | 4455745 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I can see no one works in this industry or knows what the above implies.

First, the above customer is riding either a month to month or index contract in ConEd and that rate is bundled with the utility. That they haven't fixed their rate is beyond moronic. They could have gotten $.18/kWh for nearly a year and fixed it for 36 months.

Second, the shortages in gas are localized to certain city gates. This has to do with transport constraints and low storage. Especially into the northeast.

Third, many of the power and gas retailers are getting slaughtered right now. Margin calls, ISO collateral calls, IM calls on gas positions. $100-200m losses in Dec and Jan. Part of this is due to the retail products they offer, some on the hedging strategies, and some on the fact that the banks don't play in the commodities trading space any longer.

I saw a C&I customer bill out of Rochester, double from last year. Partly because of usage. Mostly because they're riding an index. It's how it goes. They needed to manage their risk better.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 00:23 | 4455950 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

There's no "fixed rate" with ConnEd. They just give you a bill and an automated telephone line.

Sincerely,
Formerly Raped by NuYawk Dude who left that shithole behind.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 03:30 | 4456368 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Dear Formerly Raped Dude (I'm not sure if you ceased having been raped or were formerly a dude),

The variable part of the residential bill is the supply portion of the bill. You just sign a fixed rate supply contract with any of the dozens of retail suppliers. It takes 20 minutes. ConEd doesn't tell you. But you get the same service and coned will charge the wires and polls charges. Fixed supply charges with a retailer. Fixed utility wires and poll charges with Coned. Fixed rate bill.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:05 | 4456960 JMT
JMT's picture

No one has to live in the NYC area, only good if you are under the age of 35, earn (at least) over $150,000 a year, have no children at that income level and either work on Wall Street or are part of the 'creative class' of nouveau riche transplants from the Midwest or Western States who can somehow afford to rent to spend over $2,000 a month in rent for a tiny studio apartment in Brooklyn with a  60 + minute commute to Manhattan and the boro that has the highest auto insurance rates in the country..  People complain about con ed bills while they spend $3.00 on a  small bottle of water from Duane Reade or spend $100 a night or more when they 'go for dinner' (not eat it)... 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:05 | 4456961 JMT
JMT's picture

No one has to live in the NYC area, only good if you are under the age of 35, earn (at least) over $150,000 a year, have no children at that income level and either work on Wall Street or are part of the 'creative class' of nouveau riche transplants from the Midwest or Western States who can somehow afford to rent to spend over $2,000 a month in rent for a tiny studio apartment in Brooklyn with a  60 + minute commute to Manhattan and the boro that has the highest auto insurance rates in the country..  People complain about con ed bills while they spend $3.00 on a  small bottle of water from Duane Reade or spend $100 a night or more when they 'go for dinner' (not eat it)... 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!