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"Polar Vortex" Shock And Awe: The Utility Bill Arrives (And Why It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better)
The "polar vortex" shock has arrived, only this time it is not in the form of another 12 inches of overnight snow accumulation but in the shape of household utility bills. A reader was kind enough to send us his just received ConEd bill for the month ended Februery 10. The result speaks for itself. It also speaks for where so much of US household disposable income will go in first quarter. Spoiler alert: not toward discretionary purchases.
If readers have more dramatic instances of the "Polar Vortex" invoice shock, please forward them to us at the usual address.
And unfrotunately it will get worse before it gets better. On the back of a rapid decline in the "glut" of low cost natural gas (as stockpiles are drawn down to the lowest level since 2004) and the shift in forecast (that the freezing weather could last well into March), Natural gas futures are soaring (up over 10% today). This is the highest front-month futures contract price since December 2008 as "the possibility of periodic shortages now looms."
Charts: Bloomberg
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Isn't that now referred to as the "sidelines?"
Ask the lobbyists about your bill. Caviar isn't cheap.
mine was about 400 bucks this winter. regularly around 285ish. and we have cheapest rates in the country 6.89 per killowatt hr. the stack backfires out pipe when my kids get home from school. and the meter creates a gyroscopic vortex on that side of the house
meter creates a gyroscopic vortex on that side of the house
if you're open to woo-woo solutions, research orgonite.
http://www.orgoneproducts.org/orgone_chips.php
you can make them yourself very cheaply with metal shavings, plastic resin, and muffin trays, instructions online. couldn't hurt and might save ya a bundle.
oops .07744 here . forget what the that other# was off the bill
we pay 40 something cents/kw here. this is the only place solar makes sense on it's own but we get the subsidy to install it anyway and the local utility is a bit upset at the demand.
Where are you? Hawaii or Alaska?
We pay about .12 a KWh here for about $130 a month but I'm paying at least $600 a month for oul heat.
I sure am glad Obama's EPA has been shutting down coal plants! Now we can invest in the greentech of the future...because that worked out so well for the Europeans.
and we will get the same deal that gasprom gives them
And when coal runs out (or, as in the case of China, chokes the shit out of you)?
Nukes it is then!
You got it, Thorium pebble bed, no GE nuke material pressurized water fFukushima crap for us
If you're lucky enough to be a landlord like me, your Obama bumper sticker tenants stopped paying rent in January, were toasty warm for the two months it took you to kick them out, and the $1800 power/ utility bills are staring at you in the face along with three trailer loads of garbage they left behind. The beauty sink rammed into the laundry wall is yours to keep too.
Section 8 tenants?
And the FED and elites on Wall Street are happy that you are taking the brunt of the consequences.
It's like "trickle down" just in the opposite direction, and you know how long it takes to reach it's destination.
Not excusing tenants - you have my sympathy - but this is how slow motion collapse looks.
I take it in stride. Can't win them all. New tenant shares no characteristics. I'm optimistic. Rental prop ownership is a decent hedge long term.
I have a vacant property and people ask why I don't just rent it out? First of all, I am trying to sell it so that takes renting off the table. As you indicated, tenants will break shit and generally fuck up the property. I plussed you but you are nuts if you think rental properties are a hedge. All you will do is dump money. I had a buddy who tried rental and he lost his ass and then the state came in after him. High end rental is a different story. If you are going be in the business of rentals then you have to be in that business 100%. I can't see how it would be profitable as an ancillary income maker. If I thought I could make money renting my other property then I would be doing it.
To each their own and if rentals are your business I wish you luck.
I knew a guy who did just fine, although it would probably be considered illegal today. He had 17 single family homes in a good, midwestern suburb with a top-rated school district outside a top 20 municipality. It was a short commute to a Japanese auto plant. He advertised his rentals at the plant and signed up only Japanese to multi year leases. They always paid on time and never destroyed a property.
Kids are really hard on property. The worst tenants have kids. I prefer view homes and rent to couples.
I've done well with rental property. Nice deal if live not too far away and deal with people well. Good income. Added bonus is that now nearly everyone has poor credit so the landlord can legally refuse to rent to almost anyone by saying its on credit issues. New tenant is a computer programmer. All is good my friend.
Perhaps odd, or not, among the many tons of garbage they left (yes, tons, over $300 in dump bills -- old household garbage piled high). There was at least 1/4 trailer FULL of used fireworks. I rarely spend more than $100 on fireworks, but the deadbeat Obama Bumper Sticker Tenants (OBST) left behind hundreds of spent elaborate firework tubes. At least $2000 worth. I guess this kind of waste, lack of ethics, dumping trash on others, it fits the attitude of many OBST.
Tip: I pay a realtor friend one months rent to screen and backround check prospective tenants. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but this has worked for me. In my state it takes 6 months to evict. You have my sympathy re: your OBST.
I have a work history that involves doing background checks. All I need is a name and I can dig up all kinds of things. My state court system has a website, you can get case records online and/or visit the courthouse and read the entire file. I use a tenant screening company for $18 each I get a credit report. I know how to do the criminal report myself. I call previous landlords. All of this I do myself and don't need to sacrifice a whole month for screening.
Here it takes only 3-6 weeks to evict but it's expensive. Basically the best move is to beg/bribe your deadbeats to LEAVE. There is no money with these people so I will never recover anything. I sucked up and ate the power bills and hauled off their garbage (blech and got rid of baby mamma beauty sink). These OBST were young, hadn't get screwed up their credit, and I gave them a chance. They turned out to be pigs.
Who is the smart one(s) here?
New to the business, or are you late?
That's what NY gets when it wants to move all generation to NG/Renewable. Good luck keeping your lines at 60hz NYISO
Wait, krugman said if aliens attacked tonight and broke our windows we would all have jobs. The polar vortex alien attacked so there will be a lot of utility worker jobs now.
Well, WWII DID bring the US out of the Depression! </sarc>
Now should I skip out on my electricity bill or my Obamacare premium?
Pay the Obamacare. That way you're covered for treatment of hypothermia. Once you meet the deductible.
If you have to ask then that means that you should skip both (because you cannot afford either).
Next question.
My nat. gas/electric bill wasn't bad at all for January and that bill is always the highest of the season (here in SE PA); $420. I was positive I would break the $500 barrier, but no.
I did get a brand new, much more efficient gas furnace in the Fall of 2012. It seems to be making a big difference. I don't worry too much about my energy bills anymore. They are no longer the worst of my expenses.
Thanks for reminding us that there are things we PERSONALLY can do to help (own) OURSELVES.
who coulda known?
http://chistletoe.blogspot.com/2013/11/gas.html
oh, I'm a landlord too. warmest digs and cheapest rates in town.
The snow and ice brought down some delicious oak trees across the road, so I made friends with the cops while I helped myself to free heat ....
My propane bills Dec 10 $2.37/gallon vs. Feb 12 $4.50/gallon. I expect to see many a manufactured shortage in the future as a mechanism for hiding the effects of runaway inflation.......
Having stocks at 5 year lows all the while exporting 400,000 barrels a day of propane goes a long way to explain your situation...
I love it how the bean counters get to count domestic propane production as "oil" but allow the export of it in spite of laws banning the export of domestic "oil"....
It's all pretty much fucked up. I figure that the regional agreements that transcend borders (Canada and Mexico) make things look a little funny: kind of hard to say you won't export to a country from where you're importing from- different regions, such as with Canada).
Here are the exports
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MPREXUS2&f=M
They are all from the Gulf Coast
And they are going everywhere
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_a_EPLL_EEX_mbblpd_m.htm
Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands...
With electric rates this high it will cost the FED $.02 to create $65 billion of digital QE a month.
Which will for sure make the cost greater than the benefit to the economy.
So, along the lines of buying silver to help crash JP Morgan folks can use up a bunch of electricity to push prices up on electricity in order to crush the Fed? <snark>
"So the economic softmess IS because of the weather?"
It's bad when the polar vortex causes your energy bills to explode. It's good when inflation causes your energy bills to explode. Report to the ministry of economics for further re-education.
Don't worry, be happy! </sarc>
How to Heat Your Home With Beer Cans
note : perhaps a paid advert, but one can easily DIY the design on the page if so inclined.
It would get awfully hot in here.;-)
http://www.abc27.com/story/24684770/power-companies-shocking-customers-w...
HARRISBURG, Pa. (WHTM) -
"I'm very angry," said Andy Wolfe, a policeman in the Midstate.
Wolfe, who lives in Adams County, is upset about his most recent electricity bill from Pennsylvania Gas and Electric. He typically paid between $300 and $400 for electricity through Met Ed.
This month?
"Just under $2,400."
But shutting down those coal fired plants was good, right ?
Good thing Obama didn't screww with Healthcare, otherwise we would be broke...
If he is heating with electric, he is a complete and utter fool....
Um, this FAILS to note HOW MUCH electricity was consumed!
It would be like me saying that last year my grocery bill was $300/mo and this year it's $600 and failing to state that I'm getting more groceries, that I'm making more meals!
So, because this "cop" FAILED to read what his contract was (something that is important to you should require that you give it meaningful attention) it's a calamity, it's because of Obama, of shutting down coal plants (that either do or don't exist in the area)?
Yeah, I get it that this is pretty shitty to stuff shit in "fine print," but this has been a "fine print" world for quite a while now. Evolve or die, that's how nature deals with it.
No, you do not want NatGas running your Escalade or F150.
My utility company just keeps raising rates on everything, wish I had a monopoly.
At least after you get your monopoly you will be qualified to run for Senate.
My dependence on my local utility is negligible. It is, however, a publicly controlled (yeah, "socialist") entity that has to actually inform its customers of plans and to "negotiate" rate increases: most rate increases are due to costs associated with their purchases from powe-generating facilities. I've always had a much higher regard for this utility than for any non-publically-controllled communications entities (one that starts with "V" can fucking burn to the ground for all I care- I'd bring marshmallows).
My heating costs are increasing due to it taking longer for me to cut wood- I'm getting older...
Nothing a bit more debt won't solve.
You guys never learn. This creates "pent up demand" they will tell us. And, since the mkt is forward looking about 6 months, it will be sunny and 80s. So rally on!
If I'm not mistaken, doesn't energy production get included in the "domestic manufacturing" numbers? Looks like some fodder for government's misleading "recovery" stories here.
Well, um, markets go up when oil prices go up (or had been doing so). And, remediation of toxic dumps creates GDP.
"The possibility of periodic shortage looms"
Here we go again, we're all going to die ahhhhh! Now some commentator will talk about lack of refining or distribution resources because the US is stitting on trillions of metric tons of NG. Iran has lack of refinement. Gee why don't they build more?
If you want to know WHEN to invest these days into something ask your Senator. But it will cost you :/0
Now we will be reminded once again, why paying the mortgage goes WAY DOWN ON THE LIST OF BILLS TO PAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, that's the story for the bulk of our "replacements" who are sitting in our basements. The bill for that 4G connection is at the top of the list: mortgage? electricity/NG?
No worries folks! It's not like increasing energy costs are going to change the core CPI. /s
Excellent!
We've got to become more cat-like! If a cat can't see you then you can't see the cat. If you don't see something then that something doesn't exist! I think we ought to remove EVERYTHING from that silly CPI list, that way there would be ZERO to worry about!
ALL HAIL THE NEW AMERICAN PETROSTATE...THE SHALE REVOLUTION...THE ENERGY RENAISSANCE in AMERICA....clearly it is working...if we dig much more gas out of the ground, I will go bankrupt.
Couldn't say it better myself...
they need to cover 100s of acres in the desert with mirrors to really make us cry
bring it central bankers and central planners!
morons, statists, waste of space nothing-for-good-ever motherfleckers
At the time that it was planned, it was not clear that panels could compete with CSP. And that plants like that would be the most cost effective way...
Ten years ago, I for one though CSP would prevail, clearly, I was wrong...
So, you're thinking that private entities like Enron would be better? (note: NOTHING is going to "solve" our "problems")
Meanwhile this is in the pipeline
45 hours out
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/12/nam-hires_namer_045_sim_refle...
Oh, in case you are wondering, Night of the Living Vortex will be back
http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/cpc-temps-feb19.gif
This looks like a super nice inverse head and shoulders setup potential.
So this means the weather increased GDP, right???
Because yesterday the weather reduced it. Need clarity.
I have gas, and that is why I shit when I saw my bill; too much chilli.
Er,Commercial Real Estate on the ropes (think empty shopping malls),everyones credit maxed out,and now the cost to heat and light some of these enormous shopping malls.
NO PROBLEM HERE. MOVE ALONG.
You know, as fucked up as those malls are the're nowhere near as fucked up as this:
http://paradiseintheworld.com/palm-islands-dubai/
Nothing says "unsustainable excess" like Palm Island.
Oh! A few years back Haliburton relocated to Dubai.
Russian stoves, see what Mark Twain says.
http://www.russianstove.com/brickyard/staticpages/markt.htm
Link to construction details?
more or less this
http://www.richsoil.com/rocket-stove-mass-heater.jsp
More like this
I got one in my house in Mexico - works great. But in my opinion for new construction you are better off with spray foam super insulating techniques; it’s like living in a thermos bottle with the residual heat from the fridge, lights etc keep the house warm.
Yeah, masonry stoves are great. I know that they're heavily used up in the Scandinavian countries: thought that that's where they originated, but...
Another concept:
http://www.richsoil.com/rocket-stove-mass-heater.jsp
No affiliation (just grabbed the first link that popped up).
My house can stay warm long after my stove has exhausted its wood. Often when I get a summy day the stove isn't stoked all day from the previous night's fire and I can readily have temps in the 70s. (passive solar with mass is the same concept as the masonry stove- intense heat charge into mass and then coast)
Electric bills are up 10% in MN. It was already expensive enough despite the fact we have nukes in this state. Who is going to argue with the electric company and win?
Propane? That is a different story. Most folks do not own their own tank but I do, so I can shop around. I bought propane at $1.31 a gallon in July on a pre-buy deal. I still had 40% left in January when I saw this shitstorm coming so I ordered anyway and locked in at $2.75 per gallon which I thought was ridiculous. By the time they delivered, propane was $6 a gallon and you couldn't even get it without waiting for weeks and even then could only buy so much at a time.
So what was the general public's response? Outrage, and of course, the standard "We need the .gov to fix this for us." as well as the usual petitioning of the state. A couple of local politicians mumbled some platitudes and then were heard no more. I'm sure there will be more to come though as the politicos debate how they can best take advantage of the situation to make themselves look like heroes. It will likely involve some sort of minimal rebate checks from the state based on income. The sheep will think that is great and that their elected officials did something for them all the while not realizing that they were simply redistributing the loot minus the excessive administrative costs of .gov. Sound familiar?
Another way to look at it is this way; a lot of people are not going to pay their bills because they cannot afford to pay. Many of these propane service providers are smaller co-ops or smaller businesses and they had to buy at sky high wholesale prices so they have massive costs that need to be recovered. If no one can pay the bill what will happen to them? They will go bankrupt of course but the demand for energy will not go away so it makes you wonder who is doing this? Perhaps I am mistaken but it sure looks like a consolidation play to me. The more you read up on it the more you realize that the propane "shortage" was scripted.
The more you really read about it you find out that PADD2 stocks were already at low levels last November after strong demand to dry a large wet corn harvest...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/propane-inventories-fall-to-low...
Please note the date.....
Flak, I will see your link and raise you one link for now. There is another link you just have to see and perhaps I will go find it later. It involved all sorts of railroad work and pipeline work starting at very odd times when there was nothing wrong that anyone knows of. The supply chain was totally disrupted causing an artificial shortage. It ought to help out the plumbers union though. Railroads? Let me see, do railroads have unions? Pipefitters? Yes they do. It was done on purpose.
Flak, don't fool yourself. This was done against Walker of Wisconsin to tell him to shut up.
http://www.prairiebizmag.com/event/article/id/17644/
Yawn....
Quit the conspiracy ideation, it only makes you look like a loon...
Seriously....
You want to have a go Flak? Most of your posts are worthless shit. That is not a conspiracy but rather fact. Are you ready to go?
Instead of making shit up, why don't you take a hint look at the historical levels in PADD2 propane stocks and demonstrate that the stocks and flows were manipulated or showed an irregular pattern...
I even gave you the fucking link with all the data. Download it into Excel and show us what you got... And don't forget the NG Plant component here
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MPRSNP21&f=M
Do some real fucking investigative work instead on projecting nonsense...
And if you show that the propane stocks/flows in the midwest were manipulated I'll will gladly eat crow here and admit I was wrong...
The ball is in your court...
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14711
That don't demonstrate shit. You do understand what a tautology is, do you?
Show me the the supply wasn't tighter than a bulls ass in flytime even before the cold weather...
I demonstrated that in November stocks were at 14 year lows for that time of year..
=======
BTW, this is from your link
Check this out... stocks were at 5 years lows as early as Feb 2013 and they never recovered:
In fact you can see that nationally propane stocks have been at the low end for many months...
Really? You act like I wrote it. That does not change the fact that you are a dickhead. Years worth of your ZH posts will clarify that fact. You are simply an asshole. Forget LNG. I did not say you were worthless but only rather near to it. Want to drag out the gold and silver markets? You seem so smart. Want to talk about those markets Mr. Expert? Your call.
It all came from the your link. You know, the data that purported to support your position...
So now I am a dickhead because I call you out in a public forum for your demonstrably completely asinine statements...
Pride goeth before a fall buddy....
I actually don't find it all that far-fetched. This is high-stakes stuff. That said, I'm pretty certain that it would be the death-knell of these uniions if this were to be established as fact.
And no, I have no interest in supporting Walker, nor any union. I just want to deal with facts (non-emotionally, no Party Pussy stuff). My position is that this is a finite world and that it is CERTAIN that at some point, as long as we continue with our current extraction rates of resoruces, we WILL exhaust shit and that it will make these disturbances look rather petty.
It's all going over the cliff. The color of the vehicle has little to do with it's trajectory (which was formed a LONG time ago).
Sorry, I got a bit carried away there but I will fight back Seer. I do not see any conspiracy but rather action as it is. I have no faith in any political party and that should be patently known by now. How I can get myself involved is an art unto itself. I only want to see what they are doing from an inside perspective. Seer, you know I am a reasonable man. I do not see how politics enters into the situation of LNG markets unless you look at what happened. It was meant to be a market ruse.
As for Flak, I will call it off for now....sort of...
Just so you know, propane ain't LNG...
Propane can be classified as LPG...
Get your facts straight...
Not to stick my head in the lion's mouth but it would not be outside the realm of possibilty: http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/comm-response.pdf
"Key findings were that markets for natural gas and electricity in California are
inextricably linked and that the artificially inflated increases in spot gas prices
contributed to the rise in electricity prices. The problems in the natural gas market
appeared to stem, in part, from efforts to manipulate price indices compiled by trade
publications."
Yeah, Enron (among others) were a bunch of cocksuckers...
It was a pretty big list:
Enron Power Marketing, Inc. Docket No. EL03-180-000
and Enron Energy Services Inc.
Aquila, Inc. Docket No. EL03-181-000
City of Glendale, California Docket No. EL03-182-000
City of Redding, California Docket No. EL03-183-000
Colorado River Commission Docket No. EL03-184-000
Constellation Power Source, Inc. Docket No. EL03-185-000
Coral Power, LLC Docket No. EL03-186-000
El Paso Merchant Energy, L.P. Docket No. EL03-187-000
Eugene Water and Electricity Board Docket No. EL03-188-000
Idaho Power Company Docket No. EL03-189-000
Koch Energy Trading, Inc. Docket No. EL03-190-000
Las Vegas Cogeneration, L.P. Docket No. EL03-191-000
MIECO Docket No. EL03-192-000
Modesto Irrigation District Docket No. EL03-193-000
Montana Power Company Docket No. EL03-194-000
Morgan Stanley Capital Group Docket No. EL03-195-000
Northern California Power Agency Docket No. EL03-196-000
PacifiCorp Docket No. EL03-197-000
PECO Docket No. EL03-198-000
Powerex Corporation Docket No. EL03-199-000
(f/k/a British Columbia Power
Exchange Corporation)
Public Service Company of New Mexico Docket No. EL03-200-000
Sempra Energy Trading Corporation Docket No. EL03-201-000
TransAlta Energy Marketing (U.S.) Inc. Docket No. EL03-202-000
and TransAlta Energy Marketing
(California), Inc.
Valley Electric Association, Inc. Docket No. EL03-203-000
http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Order-ShowCauseConcerningGamingandorAnoma...
"They will go bankrupt of course but the demand for energy will not go away so it makes you wonder who is doing this? Perhaps I am mistaken but it sure looks like a consolidation play to me. The more you read up on it the more you realize that the propane "shortage" was scripted."
I can think conspiracy as well as the next guy, but sometimes one has to step back and take it as an incentive to adjust now before it's more than just a ploy. It's quite possible that folks failed to negotiate for supplies and were caught having to buy into higher market costs (the wholesale buyers- same as with individual buyers- best time to buy a fan/aairconditioning unit isn't when it's scorching hot out).
I'm certain that there's a component of squeezing out the competition, the smaller folks. This happens in all downturns. It sucks to see the big monopolies forming, but there's little that can be done about it: size allows for economies of scale.
I can not disagree with you Seer and you know I respect you. It has been a play though and it has hurt a lot of people. Most people do not look at things like we do. I can only tell you what happened but if something has already happened then it is too late prevent it.
I looked up what was going on and found some interesting information. I am not going to post a shitload of links here on LNG. I truly did read up and what I found was alarming. Someone made a decision to work on both the gas pipeline and the rail lines at the same time.
Consider the source, but this has more than something to do with it. If you have other data I would love to see it.
Always a pleasure Seer.
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14711
You know me, I like to temper things...
Again, I have no doubt that there are manipulations going on; but, when has that never been the case? I do believe that businesses either can see or sense the writing on the wall and that the only(?) goal is to become TBTF*. I can marvel at the tiger, but that don't mean that I am OK with sticking my head in one's mouth. I'm just looking to point out that much that's going on is due to the circomstances that the world now finds itself in and that it's best to take this as a cue: after all, most folks here did sense things some time ago, and, I'm hoping, that we're better situated as a result; this is another one of those things that should provide a clear reminder to distance ourselves from such things. I cannot stop the pain that will come to many others; it's not my job (I"m not Jesus [my wife reminds me of that- to not be a martyr]). I could make myself feel better by stating that I didn't engage in much of the pleasure that many had, so it kind of comes even. I'm not real found of either screaming (in excitement) or squealing (in pain), I am, as I wrote in the first sentence, more tempered.
* Reminds me of one startup company that I worked for. People were just WAY too occupied with the notion of selling out the company and they forgot that the real aim was to create the best product possible. I wasn't in management or anything, but I spoke out at one meeting pointing this out (everyone was all charged about getting "stock options").
And, as always, a pleasure to have you here too, Manipuflation: I enjoy reading others write stuff that actually comes from real thought.
You are reasonable Seer and I appreciate your posts. Your point is well taken. Do not read too far into what I wrote. Their worries are not my problem but one does need to have a heart. What if I found you laying in the ditch and hurt? I will pick you up and take you where you need to go for help but it ends there.
Ah, goose bumps :-) But, seriously, that's exaclty how things should work. You're your own thinker, and I respect that in a person.
But what if you were really hungry, and you know... ha ha! (always be flexible!)
Looks like fight club for us on Flak. That guy is a douche. I am calling spade.
Don't flatter yourself...
I won't forget Flak, It's not all about me though. Somebody had to say it and you decided to crack on me. No one said you had to reply to me. I am not the right one to fuck with when you piss me off. Consider it a margin call. You are called, don't talk to me anymore if you can't pay up. You are an annoying bastard most of the time. Get your shit right or shut the fuck up.
Your turn.
Buddy, thats the whole idea, my shit is always screwed on straight.. I am *very* careful about that, it has something to do with credibility....
Take your bitchslapping (like the one I gave Mr. 42 above) like a man and remember this is Fight Club...
And its only personal when you make it that way...
Damn right it is fight club. I told you it is not fun to fight with me. You are calming down and that is good. You have to calmed down now a bit. I know you are old school ZH but so am I. We decided to tangle tonight. No one hates you and least of all me. You have have been a dickhead though. What else do you want me to say? Hey Dipshit, I would help you out even though you act like a jerk sometimes.
You know what? Maybe we are both jackasses.
Remember, you fucked with me first.
Really?
Grow up and take your lumps like a man for christs sake...
Back in the early 80's, I bought 10 acreas of land for 27,500. About 23 miles straight south from the Mall of America. People thought I was crazy for paying that much. Built a nice log home and then in 96, I sold my Harley and used the cash to put up a 20k wind turbine. From there on out, no electric bill and no heat bill. In 97, I put in a 4 ton closed loop geothermal heat pump. With off peak power, total cost to heat and cool (if I had an electric bill) would have been $29 per month. I remember natural gas spiked to around 14/therm and people freaked out. Had friends with 600 heating bills.
In 06, I doubled the size of my house to 3400 sf and added a 5 ton hydronic geothermal heat pump for infloor heat. Still no heat bill and no electric bill. As a matter of fact, as of today I am running about 150 credit on my power bill.
Look to the future and Hedge accordingly. The real shitstorm hasnt even hit yet.
Well played sir, well played indeed...
How much do you have invested in your well fields?
No wells. Slinky system which is basically 5 100 ft runs of coiled tubing. All buried 8 ft deep. Water table is high so its all in ground water. Excellent heat transfer and stable loop temps. I hired an excavator to dig the trnches and I performed all the labor. I suppose that the ground loop costs labor and materials was around 4500 back in 97
Applaud for being proactive. But... 3,400 sq ft? How many people? Buildings require maintenance: you name it I've studied it- even log homes, so I have a pretty good idea about construction materials and maintenance issues.
Did you orient your house to maximize passive solar?
4 people. Maintenance is a challenge on the south side. Not much passive solar, but waste heat from Heatpump in AC mode provides all hot water needs.
Plan on building solar panels for hot water needs when AC isnt running.
Just an FYI (because I sense that you're the curious type like myself)- You can create an outbuilding to do passive solar work for you. It's a bit more clumsy but it's viable. It's kind of like setting up solar panels out in the yard or such, not on one's rooftop (because of poor alignment). Basically a heat exchanger. The building's more of something to attach/prop up the panels to- you then make pipe runs to the main house.
I'm guessing, because I really don't know and I don't have the inclination (no time) to try and calculate how much I"m saving in energy via passive solar gain: I figure that my head would explode from the calcs. Pretty sure that I'm a good 15% if not 20%. If one equates this in wood terms then that means that I hae to cut, haul and stack (and haul again into the house) 15% to 20% less wood.
Solar water heating was something that I felt the best about, that it provided the best return. Visited one guy who had a house with a drain-down system (in a freeze area)- he'd shut it down in winter and run his water through coils around his wood cook stove. Now, there is one amazing device- the wood cook stove! It cooks food, heats your home and heats your water! In another life I'd be utilizing one of these...
Anyway, before I miss the opportunity to do so, I'd like to acknowledge that I like ground-loop heat pumps. For tech-like stuff they're good.
I can see why they changed it from Jetstream to Polar Vortex
Polar Vortex shock and awe, just sounds so much sexier than Jetstream shock and awe.
Ooooo it's a Vortex, just like a Vacuum cleaner sucking up all that debt, the more debt it sucks up the bigger the Vortex which sucks up even more debt.
vortex, winter storms with names??? iluminatti speak..
Apples and oranges.
The jet stream is upper atmosphere (you know, where Jets airplanes travel). The "polar vortex" is a deep (down to ground level) air mass that we can experience with our feet on the ground. Oh, and while jet streams are constant "polar vortexes" are not (they're seasonal, and, based on the hyped name, are of a less frequent nature than other cold air masses sinking into the continental US).
Never been a vacuum repairman, though I have repaired several vacuums. I have worked in weather.
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The second the tempurature goes below 45°F, the bastard traders start piling in, driving up the price for the folks on the back end.
I'm betting that the fuckers that own the energy, have subsiduaries that meddle in the finance markets to drive up the prices for them.
They're crying all the way to the banks.
Bring on the home-based Thorium solution!
•?•
V-V
I've got gas.
Swallow some mercaptan, then, so we get warning.
Save time on your thoughts: http://www.forbes.com.mx/sites/pobre-asignacion-de-recursos-otra-bomba-d...
Save time on your thoughts: http://www.forbes.com.mx/sites/pobre-asignacion-de-recursos-otra-bomba-d...
Now maybe those new York fruckers will become new York frackers
"In my Administration (dictatorship), the cost of Energy will necessarily Increase."
NY is not alone, the West Coast is getting raped too http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/feb/18/tp-grid-costs-mount-after-nuk... and is scheduled for huge future rape
Raped? Worse than the folks in Fukushima?
investor owned energy companies. bend over and spread your cheeks bitchez. thirty five cents a kwh? the ceo sez lulz out loud. oh well, joo york shitty is rolling in clownbux, they can afford it.
"investor owned energy companies."
Just like "investor owned" everything...
No doubt in my mind that things are being milked. I also, however, realize that this party will only last so long, that eventually resource depletion is going to pull the plug on the milking; and, somehow I think that won't necessarily put everyone's minds at ease...
I'm sure I have most of you beat, at least in the residential areana. $420 electric bill, around 75 gallons of propane and 1 cord of firewood in Janruary. That's not a misprint.
$Natgas nearly doubles in price in four months... Yeah, thats an "Orderly Market". The grain markets look next up to bat.
Good thing "Volatile" food and energy prices are not inflationary. Load up on peanut butter and jelly while you can afford them.
Do you really think this move in NG is inflation??
Gotta lay off the stupid sauce buddy...
And you are probably right, the grain markets will go if there is the slightest hint of a subpar crop..
There is "no inflation" in the new normal, therefore the rise in $Natgas is due to poor energy policy and weather. As you know, in the new normal we can't have ZIRP if we have inflation, so anything that is increasing in price for any reason is not calculated as inflation. When your cost of living is double your wages it won't be called "inflation", it will be called tough shit.
Poor energy policy???
C'mon, since when does the fastest ever increase in NG production (up ~30%, ~6 TCF p.a. in 5 years) equate to poor energy policy...
Quit projecting...
When you have supply up the wazooo and can't deliver.... Good energy Policy? Supply up 30%, price up 80%.
Beg pardon, are you advocating central planning?
The MLPs have been laying all kinds of pipe... Just not fast enough...
How big is your igloo ?
Good thing that you're rich.
Polar Vortex? The last two days the national news has been screaming about the Pothole Vortex.
This will show up as economic growth but it is a great example of the "wrong kind of growth." We must differentiate the kinds of economic growth and understand that all growth is not created equal. If you spend money but afterwards have little to show for it you have wasted it. Sadly, much of the money America "invests in itself" each year through government spending and programs falls into this category. We need the right kind of economic growth to propel us forward. It must be sustainable, with a purpose, well directed, and have long lasting benefits. The post below delves into how important it is to look at how and where money is being spent.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/01/false-demand-fuels-wrong-kind-of-...
"We need the right kind of economic growth to propel us forward. It must be sustainable, with a purpose, well directed, and have long lasting benefits. The post below delves into how important it is to look at how and where money is being spent."
Do you work for Madison Avenue?
"propel us forward"
"sustainable"
You CAN NOT USE the word "GROWTH" here! It is IMPOSSIBLE to have sustainable growth on a finite planet!
No fucking clue who "Bruce WIlds" is, but I think this person needs to understand simple math and physics. I'd recommend watching Dr. Albert Bartlett's presentation Arithmetic, Population and Energy. Anyone who watches this and still insists that there can be "sustinable growth" needs to be locked up and the key tossed away (at the very least not allowed out in public).
Fun fact for ya: a 2005 World Bank report showed 455 million people in India living on $1.25/day or less. (maybe we should ask them the importance of looking at where the money is spent?)
Wow, sucks for you guys I guess. Here's what I pay:
Electric: 0.49 RMB per kw/h. About 8 cents
Gas: 2.05 RMB per cubic meter. About 34 cents
Heating: We've got city heat managed by property management, who do not have a valid service contract, so we just don't pay and it's still illegal for them to shut it off. So... free. If we get all that resolved, it works out to about $2.30 a day, except that our little complex is rather profitable, which means that this is subsidized and based on the last lawsuit we launched, not only is it free, but they owe us about $50 a month in other subsidies.
You pay more by the air that you breathe for buring so much filthy coal.
Not really. Coal is pretty much done in Beijing, it's more or less all been converted to natural gas. Out in the burbs there's some coal left, but that's on the slate for conversion/removal as well. Believe it or not, a lot of that OMG POLLUTION stuff is flat out propaganda. The US embassy data is fake, because it's easy to fake and impossible to verify the setup. The us stations ignore humidity and weigh moisture as pollution. You see this every time it rains, as there are hilarious spikes that make no sense. It's a genius move, I'll give em that, but it's fake. Watch the satellite images and watch humidity and pressure system stats and it all makes perfect sense. Not saying that pollution doesn't exist, but it's not nearly as big of a deal as they claim.
Furthermore, PM2.5 is a scam. The only study done on it was deeply flawed and very small in sample size, which resulted in no significant finding... until they weighted it and massaged it to show an extra 2 people died, and then extrapolated it. You've gotta get to PM0.1 and lower before you can see anything even remotely dangerous. As it stands now, on those horrid days that are touted by the press, you're talking about the equivalent of a quarter of a smoke assuming you're outside in it all day long. For PM2.5 it's not the size that matters, it's the composition, which is never analyzed, as it tends to cast into doubt the legitimacy of the PM2.5 hype.
Back in the day, there was a persistent cloud of pollution at about the 14~16th floor level. You'd see the black lines, windows were best if never opened. Depending on the weather, that band could go as low as 10th and as high as 18th. You could see it just sitting there out the window. Winters were endless silent-hillesque experiences. Rain would leave mud spots. Falling snow would leave mud spots. Sand storms would leave thick layers of yellow dust containing god knows what from the far reaches of the Gobi Desert. Now... it's just foggy, some stuff lingering in it of course, but not too bad. On an average day I can see the mountains to the north and west without issue. The PR push by the US is essentially pointed at ignoring the progress that has been made and rile people up. Great move by the US, as the Chinese government could publish all the real data they wanted and the response by the US would be to call it fake and mock it, regardless of who carried it out. The Chinese press is also just about the only ones who would carry that story, as all western media would ignore it, regardless of who carried out that research.
Noted. Thx Mr Chinese Data.
I pretty much believe that there's a lot of propaganda going on and that the US has been working overtime in this department for quite a few years now, since it's become obvious that there's no way out for the US and its debt, and with China being a big holder of USTs...
I don't, however, believe that China will avoid toally hammering the shit out of their environment as long as they continue on their insane growth path.
Sure, that sounds perfectly predictable and sustainable to me... NOT!
It actually is. Higher usage gets charged higher rates and business has higher rates which subsidize the public usage. Coal is being cut back for natural gas in the short term and latest generation nuclear with an emphasis on being convertible in the future to thorium systems. Also a whole shitload of solar and wind which is not being fully utilized as the grid is being upgraded to handle the capacity.
Centralized heating is also FAR more efficient than burning it yourself, and allows for better pollution controls. The big move towards gas systems for it were from back in the horrid 07-08 winter when coal delivery was interrupted. Coal is just not as controllable as gas, and as such, gas is preferred as well as less polluting.
I can see no one works in this industry or knows what the above implies.
First, the above customer is riding either a month to month or index contract in ConEd and that rate is bundled with the utility. That they haven't fixed their rate is beyond moronic. They could have gotten $.18/kWh for nearly a year and fixed it for 36 months.
Second, the shortages in gas are localized to certain city gates. This has to do with transport constraints and low storage. Especially into the northeast.
Third, many of the power and gas retailers are getting slaughtered right now. Margin calls, ISO collateral calls, IM calls on gas positions. $100-200m losses in Dec and Jan. Part of this is due to the retail products they offer, some on the hedging strategies, and some on the fact that the banks don't play in the commodities trading space any longer.
I saw a C&I customer bill out of Rochester, double from last year. Partly because of usage. Mostly because they're riding an index. It's how it goes. They needed to manage their risk better.
There's no "fixed rate" with ConnEd. They just give you a bill and an automated telephone line.
Sincerely,
Formerly Raped by NuYawk Dude who left that shithole behind.
Dear Formerly Raped Dude (I'm not sure if you ceased having been raped or were formerly a dude),
The variable part of the residential bill is the supply portion of the bill. You just sign a fixed rate supply contract with any of the dozens of retail suppliers. It takes 20 minutes. ConEd doesn't tell you. But you get the same service and coned will charge the wires and polls charges. Fixed supply charges with a retailer. Fixed utility wires and poll charges with Coned. Fixed rate bill.
No one has to live in the NYC area, only good if you are under the age of 35, earn (at least) over $150,000 a year, have no children at that income level and either work on Wall Street or are part of the 'creative class' of nouveau riche transplants from the Midwest or Western States who can somehow afford to rent to spend over $2,000 a month in rent for a tiny studio apartment in Brooklyn with a 60 + minute commute to Manhattan and the boro that has the highest auto insurance rates in the country.. People complain about con ed bills while they spend $3.00 on a small bottle of water from Duane Reade or spend $100 a night or more when they 'go for dinner' (not eat it)...
No one has to live in the NYC area, only good if you are under the age of 35, earn (at least) over $150,000 a year, have no children at that income level and either work on Wall Street or are part of the 'creative class' of nouveau riche transplants from the Midwest or Western States who can somehow afford to rent to spend over $2,000 a month in rent for a tiny studio apartment in Brooklyn with a 60 + minute commute to Manhattan and the boro that has the highest auto insurance rates in the country.. People complain about con ed bills while they spend $3.00 on a small bottle of water from Duane Reade or spend $100 a night or more when they 'go for dinner' (not eat it)...