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What's Wrong With These Two Charts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By now the weather apologists will have let you know that the latest economic data disappointment - housing starts and permits - both of which crashed in January, is solely due to the weather (the same apologists who will tell you that any good news is due only to the "recovery"). Alas, this time even the most cursory glance beneath the headlines reveals just how sad the lies truly are.

Presenting Exhibit A: the all important housing permits, which predate starts by 2-3 months, broken down by region. If indeed the weather was to blame, it would be the region that was hit the worst by the polar vortex, i.e., the Northeast, which would have been most impacted. Instead, we find that the one region where the 'weather impact" was double that of the Northeast, was the West, i.e., California, where balmy weather resulted in a seasonally adjusted permits crash of 26%!

 

 

Next, Exhibit B: Housing starts broken down by region. Same logic - if it was indeed the snow's fault that activity ground to a halt, the Northeast region would have cratered (and other regions would have flatlined at worst). Instead, we get this:

 

It is almost as if nobody even wants to put any effort into the lies anymore.

 

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Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:21 | 4452225 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Oh!  You thought we meant weather?  What we really meant was people couldn't decide WHETHER or not they should go further into debt to crooked banksters. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:43 | 4452591 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

It's the warm dry weather we've been having in the SF Bay area. Oh wait, that would make perfect shirtsleeve weather for builders.

Maybe it's the astronomical unprecedented rise in house prices here in the last year, plus higher interest rates making houses less affordable Then there is Plan Bay Area restricting supply of evil McMansions like ours. I visited a Toll Bros development here yesterday where they are readying to pour about a dozen slabs, but they're not throwing them fast by any historical standard. There are about 200 lots there, prices from 1.2 to 1.6, 3ksqft to 4, and they figure it will take them two years to sell them all.

So the answer is the builders are building only as they have a buyer inder contract, skimming profit at low financial risk to them. Buyers are usually tech and STEM sector people, mostly of Indian and Chinese descent. They have to be able to put down 500k to fit into the max loan size that you can a decent rate for in this county, which amounts to 650k principal.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:22 | 4452228 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Truth? You want the truth? You can't handle the truth...

Actually, there was no water to use for the concrete foundations....

Yeah, that's my story and I'm sticking to it...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:27 | 4452256 Remnant_Army
Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:58 | 4452356 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Lots of crappy construction as fast as they throw the boxes up....pock marked uneven cement flooring outside and under carpet.....poor window installation.....even some of the circuit boxes in the garages are too deep in the wall..prob against code ....and so on....

All a result of zirp...direct or indirect.....

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:07 | 4452449 max2205
max2205's picture

Pay attention to the man and abc news....not some alt blog

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:17 | 4452493 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

why the fuck is the dow up almost 100 points?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:54 | 4452626 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Euphoria over speculation about next month's Govt reports....

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:22 | 4452229 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Well. Nat has ripping. There is a silver lining

http://hedge.ly/1eSlxij $HoV hovanian

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:23 | 4452234 BandGap
BandGap's picture

The housing starts were for igloos, stupid.

So simple even an eskimo understands.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:23 | 4452236 Truther
Truther's picture

Fed Fucktards....

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:25 | 4452243 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

We had a lot of bad weather.  And it did probably slow down in process projects.  But ... the real story is nobody is buying nothing -- new ... existing.

I've been trying to find a project for 6 months.  There aren't any.  Can't build anything new.  Can't buy an existing to remodel becaue they cost too much.

I may have to go fishing

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:32 | 4452270 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

Instead of going fishing, look for some shale!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:28 | 4452247 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Eat the GMO and drink the Fluoride, and stop asking questions that counter the Fascist regime's policy that we are in year 4 of the GREAT RECOVERY!

ALL HAIL THE GREAT OBOZO!

Only 3 more years left to the end of the Obozo regime. Don't worry, be happy. Take a pill and cheer for your great leader.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:27 | 4452250 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

tyler using SA numbers.  i can seasonally adjust a turd into a pile of shit.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:27 | 4452252 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

BUT IN THE WEST IT'S BONEDRY!!

 

concrete needs water...

can't build without water...

need water...

 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:44 | 4452318 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

I was wondering about that.  I don't see anybody saying that, but it seems like drought could slow down construction.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:35 | 4452870 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Since when has reality had any impact on speculators, which pretty much defines anyone who would currently buy a home in CA.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:55 | 4452372 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

but there's enough water for the golf courses so Obama can play;

http://swampland.time.com/2014/02/17/obama-golfs-water-guzzling-desert-c...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:33 | 4452861 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The only population growth in CA is Hispanic. AS we know from experience, those coming to this country in many cases will live two, three, maybe even four families to a structure, so population increases combined with home price increases mean fewer homes sold, not more.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:27 | 4452254 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I blame it on the drought. Who wants to build a new home on the west coast desert?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:30 | 4452268 Singelguy
Singelguy's picture

Also, Fukishima radiation is heading to the west coast. Who wants to live next to that?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:36 | 4452280 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

I believe the radiation has already arrived, but due to drought=weather=global warming= all weather is climate change, the data has not been released because the 0 crony in charge of that was golfing with his master in the drought...........area and didn't have time to review it.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:44 | 4452600 edotabin
Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:27 | 4452255 TradingFinn
TradingFinn's picture

I think your skepticism is due to the weather.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:28 | 4452259 dogmete
dogmete's picture

The weather apologists meant to say: The weather was so warm in the west & midwest, people decided they didn't want to live in a home.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:51 | 4452343 new game
new game's picture

you obviously don't live in MN...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:32 | 4452272 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

Blame  it  on  the  Radiation  on  the  coast  from  the  Fukushima  Power  Plant  in  Japan..  and  the  lack  of  rain .

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:43 | 4452284 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

"solely due to the weather"?  I haven't heard anybody say that, until now.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:11 | 4452694 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Perhaps they haven't heard of NOAA, because if they had they would know by now that there weren't any unusual weather anomalies in 2013.  In fact, globally temperatures were 0.85F above normal last year.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/12

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201312...

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:38 | 4452299 Bosch
Bosch's picture

Obviously it is climate change, even when it is hot it is cold and vice versa.  

Or season adjustment disorder or whatever name those pussies are giving to their male hormonal instability this year. 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:50 | 4452319 TheGoldMyth
TheGoldMyth's picture

As ZH resident Economic Climate Change Scientist i look at how economic activity increases or decreases  CO2 emissions that cause climate.

I need to conlude the data is being manipulated, and that we have corrupted economic climate data.

Clearly, CO2 causes climate and if the economy improves we Economic Climate Change Scientist's can know in advance that the weather gets warmer due to xtra CO2 that creates a man made greenhouse.
If the weather gets colder, it usually means less CO2 is being generated....
due to austerity, less building starts, financial collapse, forclosed houses etc Poor economic activity reduces CO2 production in general

This is very odd.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:48 | 4452610 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Well there is stock of CO2, and then there is flow. Sounds like you are a flow kind of guy.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:48 | 4452332 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

When I adjust these housing start numbers, due to the fact that my finger smells, they all show green.

 

ONWARD!!!!!

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:49 | 4452340 Remnant_Army
Remnant_Army's picture

Well. Seems like weather will be blamed on April 15th.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aN-XFB8d_zs

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:54 | 4452353 forwardho
forwardho's picture

It is almost as if nobody even wants to put any effort into the lies anymore.

More like they don't give a shit what we might think anymore. Why should they? With all the absolute govt fuckkery that is going on, the whole populace is silent.

50% has been outright bought off with entitlements, Think they want to rock the boat?

The other 50% justs wants to believe the fantasy can go on forever.

No insult intended to either group, nor to any ZH'er thats awake.

I also just wanted to live my life and be left alone.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 10:55 | 4452373 new game
new game's picture

quiet before the shit storm???

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:02 | 4452425 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

You can't play the game, if you don't blame.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:03 | 4452428 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Must be bullish. Stawks have skyrocketed since the dip at the open.

Hmm. Buy the dip. Sounds like a novel concept.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:13 | 4452467 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

What's wrong is that everyone here is looking at them eyes wide open while sheep are staring at them, eyes wide shut!

 

 

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:14 | 4452476 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Problem is 2 fold...

Prices never really corrected v starts/permits (Fed and govt intervention):

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=sgE

The biggy is home ownership rate must catch down to participation rate on new home buyers (25-54yr olds):

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=sgK

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:32 | 4452550 cnhedge3
cnhedge3's picture

the bad data will continue even with surprise index in the bottom area, and most importantly more and more people will get nervous with the bad data that is not weather related.

http://www.cnhedge.com/


 

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