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January Inflation Subdued Despite Biggest Jump In Electricity Prices In Four Years

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The importing of Japan's deflation continues: in January headline consumer prices as well as prices excluding food and energy rose by 0.1%, in line with expectations, and down from a downward revised 0.2% in December. The annual increase in prices rose modestly from 1.5% to 1.6%, but still below the Fed's 2.0% target. The main reason for the increase? Why the polar vortex, and specifically soaring electricity prices as a result of the surge in nat gas. "Increases in the indexes for household energy accounted for most of the all items increase. The electricity index posted its largest increase since March 2010, and the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil also rose sharply. These increases more than offset a decline in the gasoline index, resulting in a 0.6 percent increase in the energy index."

Of course, H readers already knew this courtesy of our report on electricity prices charged by ConEd which as we showed yesterday soared to what may be an all time monthly high:

The headline monthly price increase has been in a range of 0.0% to 0.2% for the past 7 months.

Some other observations:

The index for all items less food and energy also rose 0.1 percent in January. A 0.3 percent increase in the shelter index was the major contributor to the rise, but the indexes for medical care, recreation, personal care, and tobacco also increased. In contrast, the indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel all declined in January. The food index rose slightly in January. The index for food at home rose 0.1 percent, with major grocery store food groups mixed.

 

The all items index increased 1.6 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to a 1.5 percent increase for the 12 months ending December. The index for all items less food and energy has also risen 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index has risen 2.1 percent over the span, and the food index has increased 1.1 percent.

The categories summarized:

Of note: in addition to the annual decline in commodity prices, the 0.3% drop in apparel prices over the past 12 months confirms that apparel retailers have zero pricing power and that anyone hoping for a rebound in the discretionary retail space, at least that not targeting the 0.01%, is in for a long wait.

 

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Thu, 02/20/2014 - 09:57 | 4456927 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the fed loves this weather. cold in the east to boost energy prices and drought in CA will soon jack up food prices.  afterall, deflation: "it cant be allowed to happen here".

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:45 | 4457140 halfawake
halfawake's picture

I enjoyed that insight. Deflation is only for a grand reset, pre world war - not sure we're there just yet. Soon, though, it seems. Inflate until you no longer can, then war.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:02 | 4457208 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Good thing I dont need electricity, energy or food!  Otherwise I would say, we have inflation!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 14:05 | 4458207 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Yep, utility costs are draining everyone's wallet. I do the grocery shopping. I've noticed food prices have jumped the last month significantly on most items. I would say at least 10% on average. Can't wait until summer driving season kicks in with higher gas prices. Then this fall it will be higher healthcare premiums courtesy of 0zer0care. 2014 is going to be brutal for consumers.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 09:58 | 4456929 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

cattle/beef prices reaching historically record highs as well....but who's counting, right? 

It's all FREE when you got EBT, bitchez!!!

http://www.agweb.com/article/cattle_prices_reach_another_record_high_NAA_Greg_Henderson/

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 13:10 | 4457833 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Dog food - it will soon be what's for dinner (unless you grow your own food). Milk is approaching $4 to $4.50 a gallon in part because of the man made drought in CA.

California drought: Why farmers are 'exporting water' to China

Food prices soar as incomes stand still
Thu, 02/20/2014 - 09:58 | 4456930 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Hahahahaha!!  Sure and pigs fly!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:00 | 4456939 newsguy68
newsguy68's picture

Why Is The Obama Administration Putting Government Monitors In Newsrooms?

 

http://newswatch.us/why-is-the-obama-administration-putting-government-m...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:02 | 4456948 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Ask George Orwell...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:06 | 4456952 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Monitors In Newsrooms?

 

Probably just to make way for the hunter-killers. Welcome to SkyNetTM.

 

If you're reading this.....you are the resistance.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:13 | 4456993 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Just like the old soviet union days when there was always a party member nearby just to make sure nobody went off script.

 

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:29 | 4457084 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Because we have to be sure that every station is covering the latest twerking sensation...

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:05 | 4456951 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

 In D'never CO, I've watched the price at the pump increase from $2.96 three weeks ago to $3.29 yesterday. curious kind of deflation. must be the "electricity". right?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:07 | 4456967 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Print all the paper promises you want.  The calories available for consumption are what they are.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:08 | 4456971 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

There will always be deflation in things that aren't neccessities and inflation in things that are essential.  It's never 100% across the board up or down in all goods and services.  RV prices will go down while fuel prices rise, etc.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:12 | 4460616 earl swagger
earl swagger's picture

I have an RV for sale ....

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:08 | 4456972 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Darn that pesky food and energy. Don't the sheep know that they can save money by eating their hedonically adjusted iPad?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:09 | 4456976 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

I'm sure they'll find that iDiot pads can be pretty tasty if you use enough Frank's Hot Sauce on them...that shit's great on everything!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:13 | 4456994 nakki
nakki's picture

Why even report these made up numbers? Go to the grocery store or the gas station or watch premiums rise on insurances and talk to me about inflation. At least I can buy a smart TV that will let's me access the internet (because i dont have enough devices that allow me to do that), or a refrigerator that orders me food stuff when I run out for less than last year. Please stop with the propaganda already.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:28 | 4457075 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Teevees are necessary for control and your daily dose of propaganda, and therefore must be made affordable.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:29 | 4457086 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I wonder what the 'official' inflation rate was in Zimbabwe ?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:32 | 4457095 RKDS
RKDS's picture

It's OK, when electricity prices go up, I can run my appliances on cheaper carpet.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:44 | 4457135 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Don't worry about that decline in gasoline prices last month...  I'm paying 30 cents more per gallon now...  and expect to see $4.00 by May....  but not driven by actual demand...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 10:51 | 4457166 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

This is how the US will try to push off the economic collapse day...  they will manipulate the 'inflation' figures so that the retiring boomers get 1.5% increases in their Social Security during times when actual inflation is closer to 10%...  And they will keep interest rates on deposits and treasuries at suppressed levels so that there are no safe alternatives anywhere in the world...  meanwhile the dollar erodes...  and you end up with adding just 6% to the national debt, but with 10% real inflation it actually means you have CUT the national debt by 4%!!!  Hooray!!!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:08 | 4457239 whidbey-2
whidbey-2's picture

These numbers from the government are politically generated, and little supported by the economic activity.  How do I know?  Gene Sperling the obama economic adviser says the a 30% increase minimun wages will be "absorbed" no economic consequences.  He runs the offical line on the economy.  It is fairy tale hour when he speaks up on anything. The Fed knows fiat wages are inflationary because it does not know what to do with deflaton. Therefore we can not have it.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:33 | 4457358 royal
royal's picture

Everythings rising in price...yet there's no inflation?

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:48 | 4457708 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Inflation will not get out of control until the Fed starts raising rates. That's what really kicks off inflation every time. The inflation we are seeing now is simply corporate America extracting a little more flesh.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:49 | 4457710 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Daily double

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:55 | 4457747 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Hedonics -- people are just switching to burning their furniture

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 18:30 | 4459515 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

Good analysis.

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