Philly Fed Plunges To 1 Year Low; Misses By Most Since Aug 2011

Tyler Durden's picture


On the heels of a dismal series of global macro data points (all weather-related we are sure as G10 Macro drops to 8-month lows), this morning's US PMI debacle (nope, no weather there) has been followed up by a much more reassuring disastrous (and of course we are sure weather-related) miss. Philly Fed printed -6.3, missing expectations of +8.0 by the most since Aug 2011 (and dropping most since then). This is the lowest print in a year. New orders and shipments collapsed, inventories surged, employment plunged, and the average workweek dropped notably. Just imagine all that pent-up demand... oh wait, expectations for future new orders fell to at least 6 month lows.


G-10 Macro (must be weather everywhere?)


Philly Fed Orders vs. Inventory prints 3rd largest decline in history

* Feb. Prices paid fell to 14.2 vs 18.7 prior month
* New orders fell to -5.2 vs 5.1 prior month
* Employment fell to 4.8 vs 10.0 prior month
* Shipments fell to -9.9 vs 12.1 prior month
* Delivery time rose to 2.9 vs -3 prior month
* Inventories rose to 3.6 vs -20 prior month
* Prices received rose to 7.6 vs 5.1 prior month
* Unfilled orders fell to -2.6 vs -1.0 prior month
* Average workweek fell to -7.0 vs -5.3 prior month



Charts: Bloomberg

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Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:09 | 4457244 youngman
youngman's picture

Snowshovel sales are up big....

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:09 | 4457245 asteroids
asteroids's picture

This market is on thin ice. The response on the tape was interesting.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:14 | 4457272 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

its rolling over.  under 1700 within 2 weeks.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:41 | 4457388 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Nolw this report was weather related for sure...

Anything negative is weather related...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:09 | 4457519 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

yea right, we have gone up 20 points from yesterday and the market is going straight up.  


this market will never again print 1700

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:36 | 4457368 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The intraday chart looks like the beginnings of a cardiac arrest.

<Moar fiat to the OR stat. Someone grab the crash cart. Paging Dr. Yellen.>

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:10 | 4457249 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law...

nevermind actually manufacturing something.

Can I interest you in a financial "product" of mass destruction?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:10 | 4457252 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm so confused.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:21 | 4457298 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Your confused? An hour ago Fox Business headline was Wall Street Surges Amid Positive Data. The header now is "Mid-Atlantic Manufacturing Activity Plunges In February." I haven't checked Bloomberg yet but it doesn't matter, they use the same headline to explain both market surges and plunges.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:25 | 4457304 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture


Contraction of You and Are.  Your is possessive, as in 'your gold', 'your guns', 'your freedom'.


This kinda stuff is becoming physically painful for me to read.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:28 | 4457334 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Stop picking on me, I said I was confused.

*kind of not kinda. Shame on you.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:43 | 4457393 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Heh heh heh.  Fair enough.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:46 | 4460719 Kprime
Kprime's picture

lmao, signed in just to laugh.  Kinda, stop please ur (you're) killing me.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:42 | 4457389 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ahhh lighten up NoDebt, you're amongst friends.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:47 | 4457415 indygo55
indygo55's picture

And the to vs. too thing too!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:27 | 4457326 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Can't edit my post but Bloomberg has it covered: "US Stocks Fluctuate on Mixed Global Manufacturing Data".  Their header is set to cover anything.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:29 | 4457335 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Good morning Sloane. It's funny because I get 'news' alerts pushed to my phone from four differnet MSM sources and they are all exactly the same headline. The story will vary, but the positive headline will be the same.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:32 | 4457354 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Good morning Doc, good to see you. I'm enjoying the same phenomena. Good news = The Titanic proved that people can survive shipwrecks!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:28 | 4457595 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

The "news" is largely automated at this point by the Ministry of Truth.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:21 | 4457299 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Ignore anything with the word "Philly" or "Philadelphia" in it.  This whole region is in terminal decline, with Philadelphia (the ultimate one-party-town) leading the way downward.  Not a proxy for ANYTHING.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:23 | 4457311 Blano
Blano's picture

I was enjoying Jim Quinn's articles about the Philly area.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:21 | 4457302 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Don't be confused. You have the full faith and backing of the federal government to prop up approved asset prices.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:11 | 4457257 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Jan? You're all over this right??

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:18 | 4457285 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

just lower the bar and make it a beat , come on;  are they forgeting how to manipulate

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:23 | 4457308 Blano
Blano's picture

Anybody else have a flashy crashy print on their DIA chart?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:38 | 4457378 Law97
Law97's picture

Thank goodness the Philly Fed came through with a horrible number enough to push the stock market solidly back into green territory.  I shudder to think what would have happened had the number been good ...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:52 | 4457431 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I think what we will find are areas that produce neede items for harsh weather (fuels also), will see a spike...those that do not wont. Spring will show a slight 'recovery' but more muted than last year. This will be the year of flat to slow decline by Oct.. 2015 will probably be brutal...unless something breaks before then.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:01 | 4457479 EuropeanBankster
EuropeanBankster's picture

Insanely bullish disappointment.. DOW up tripple digit in 3...2...1

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:27 | 4457589 starman
starman's picture

booya buy buy buy...lots of emmo!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:52 | 4457727 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

I'm hungry, I'm dirty
I'm losing my mind, everything's fine!
I'm freezing, I'm starving
I'm bleeding to death, everything's fine!


Thanks Tracy Bonham!!!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 13:12 | 4457864 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Any market fundamentals that were in play went straight over the cliff in 2008. When Paulson scared the piss out of Georgie Bush. Then and there the banksters were 100% certain they were the true rulers. They own the system and no piss-ant politician can do one damn thing about it. The banksters get "free" money and steady blow jobs from their D.C. wankers.

They will continue to rape and piliage for as long as this scam system can hold together. Which could be much longer than many would like to think/hope.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 13:15 | 4457883 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

Solution: Print more money then print more gold...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!