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"The Pig In The Python Is About To Be Expelled": A Walk Thru Of China's Hard Landing, And The Upcoming Global Harder Reset

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By now everyone knows that the Chinese credit bubble has hit unprecedented proportions. If they don't, we remind them with the following chart of total bank "assets" (read debt) added since the collapse of Lehman: China literally puts the US to shame, where in addition to everything, the only actual source of incremental credit growth over the same time period has been the Fed as banks have used reserves as margin for risk purchases instead of lending. 

 

Everyone should also know that like a metastatic cancer, the amount of non-performing, bad loans within the Chinese financial system is growing at an exponential pace.

 

Finally, what everyone learned over the past month, is that as the two massive, and unresolvable forces, come to a head, the first cracks in the facade are starting to appear as first one then another shadow-banking Trust product failed and had to be bailed out in the last minute.

However, as we showed last week, and then again last night, the default party in China is only just beginning as Trust failures in the coming months are set to accelerate at a breakneck pace.

 

The $64K question is will the various forms of government be able to intercept and bail these out in time, as they have been doing so far despite their hollow promises of cracking down on moral hazard: after all, everyone certainly knows what happened when Lehman was allowed to meet its destiny without a bailout - to say that the CNY10 trillion Chinese shadow banking industry will not have far more dire consequences if allowed to fall without government support is simply idiotic.

But what could be the catalyst for this outcome which inevitably would unleash the long-overdue Chinese hard landing, and with it, a new global depression?

Ironically, the culprit may be none other than the Fed with the recently instituted taper, and the gradual, at first, then quite rapid unwind of the global carry trade.

Bank of America explains:

QE and the Emerging Markets carry trade

 

The QE channel has worked through Emerging Markets and China is a key vehicle. By lowering the US government bond yields to a bare minimum, and zero –ish at the short end, a search for yield globally ensued. Emerging market banks and corporates have gone on an international leverage binge, yet another carry trade, the third in 20 years. The first one was driven by European banks, financing East Asian capex – that ended in 1997. The second one was global banks and equity-FDI supporting mainly capex in the BRICs. That ended in 2008. This time, it is increasingly non-equity: commercial banks and more importantly, the bond market – often undercounted in the BoP and external debt statistics that conventional analysis looks at.

 

Chart 9 shows the rise of EM external loans and bond issuance (both by residence and nationality). Since, end-3Q2008 to end-3Q2013, external borrowing from banks and bonds has risen USD1.9tn. Bank loans have risen by USD855bn and bond issuance in foreign currencies by nationality is up USD1,042bn. In the prior five-year period (i.e. end-3Q2003 – end-3Q2008), forex bond issuance rose only USD432bn. Clearly, the importance of external bond issuance is rising. See Table 5 for details.

 

In China, since, end-3Q2008 to end-3Q2013, outstanding external borrowing from banks and bonds has gone from USD207bn to USD849n – a net rise of USD655bn. Outstanding bank loans are up from USD161bn to USD609bn – a net rise of USD464bn. Bond issuance in foreign currencies by nationality is up from USD46bn to USD240bn – a net rise of USD191bn. In the prior five-year period (ie, end-3Q2003 – end-3Q2008), forex bond issuance rose only USD28bn in China. Clearly, the importance of external bond issuance is rising in China.

 

 

There is more to this story.

 

As mentioned earlier, for externally-issued bonds, USD1,042bn has been raised by the nationality of the EM borrower since end-3Q 2008, but USD724bn by residence of the borrower – a gap of USD318bn, or 44%. This undercount is USD165bn in China, USD100bn in Brazil, USD62bn in Russia, and USD37bn in India. The carry trade this time around was helped substantially by access to the bond market, especially from overseas affiliates of EM banks and corporations.

 

There are a lot of moving parts in the balance of payments that finally affect the change in international reserves at any EM central bank – eg, the current account, portfolio equity investment and direct equity investment, and debt flows – both from the bond market and lending from banks. We focus on the link between these debt flows and the international reserves in China. As Table 5 below shows, China’s external debt – from bond issuance and forex borrowing from banks – rose USD655bn during 3Q08-3013.

 

 

We posit that this large rise was in part driven by the carry trade offered up by QE – China banks and corporates issued substantial forex-denominated bonds, and borrowed straight loans from international banks. We recognize the caveat that correlation does not imply causation. The USD655bn rise in China debt issuance is highly correlated to the Fed’s balance sheet since late-2008. As Chart 11 shows, the rise in China debt issuance of USD 655bn has (along with FDI and the C/A surplus), boosted international reserves by USD1,773bn since late-2008. Also, as Chart 11 shows, the USD1,773bn rise in China international reserves mirrors the rise of USD2,585bn in the EM monetary base. Lastly, the rise of China’s monetary base of USD2,585bn correlates well with the USD10.9tr rise in China’s broad money expansion.

 

 

 

As the Fed tapers, and the size of its balance sheet stabilizes/contracts, we should expect this sequence to reverse. Confidence is a fragile membrane. Not only does the Fed’s balance sheet matter as a source of funds, but we believe so does the attractiveness of the recipient of the carry trade – and the trust in its collateral. As Gary Gorton puts it...

 

The output of banks is money, in the form of short-term debt which is used to store value or used as a transaction medium. Such money is backed by a portfolio of bank loans in the case of demand deposits, or by collateral in the form of a specific bond in the case of repo. The backing is designed to make the bank debt as close to riskless as possible — in fact, so close to riskless than nobody wants to really do any due diligence on the money, just transact with it. But the private sector cannot produce riskless debt and so it can happen that the backing collateral is questioned. This typically happens at the peak of the business cycle. If its value is questioned, it loses its “moneyness” so no one wants it, and cash is preferred. But as we know, if everyone wants their cash at the same moment, their demands cannot be satisfied. In this sense, the financial system is insolvent. (interview with the FT) 

 

What makes sense for an individual carry trade - borrow low, invest at higher rates - falls prey to the fallacy of composition, when too many engage in the same carry trade. And eventually question the underlying collateral, now huge, and potentially suspect. China is a case in point. If our colleagues David Cui and Bin Gao are right, the trust sector in China could create rollover risks that reverse a gluttonous carry trade within China, but partly financed overseas. In China's case, this trade was between low global interest rates, low Chinese deposit rates, expectations of perpetual RMB appreciation on the one hand, and higher investment returns promised by Trusts on the other. A part of the debt funds raised overseas, we suspect were put to work in this Trust carry trade. The HK-based banks are big participants in intermediating the China carry trade - as Chart 12 shows, their net lending to China went from 18% of HK GDP in 2007 to 148% in late-2013.

 

There are always fancy names given to carry trades – financial liberalization of capital accounts, the Bangkok International Banking Facility, currency internationalization, etc. We remain skeptics of these buzzwords.

 

 

 

The potential consequences of Trust defaults and a China carry trade unwind

 

1. If the EM carry trade diminishes as a consequence of a changed Fed policy and/or less attractive risk-adjusted returns in EMs as collateral quality is questioned, the sources of China’s forex reserve accumulation will need to change. Perhaps to bigger current account surpluses, more equity FDI and portfolio investment through privatization and more open equity markets. If that does not happen, expanding the Chinese monetary base might require PBOC to increase net lending to the financial system and/or monetize fiscal deficits (this last part has not worked so well in EMs).

 

2. Potential asset deflation is a risk, as the carry trades diminish/unwind. Property prices are at risk – the collateral value for China’s financial systems. This is not a dire projection – it simply seeks to isolate the US QE as a key driver of China’s monetary policy and asset inflation, and highlights the magnitudes involved, and the transmission mechanism. Investors should not imbue stock-price movements and property price inflation in China with too much local flavor – this is mainly a US QE-driven story, in our view.

 

3. Currently, China’s real effective exchange rate is one of the strongest in the world. Concerns about China’s Trust sector, and its underlying collateral value, sees some of this carry trade unwound, the RMB could be under pressure.

 

 

4. Given HK’s role in the China carry trade, HK property prices and its banking system should be watched carefully for signs of stress.

 

5. UK, US, and Japan banking systems have been active lenders to China since QE. They should be on watch if the Trust rollover risk materializes and creates a growth shock in China. See Chart 15.

 

 

 

6. Safe haven bids for DM government bonds, overseas property and precious metals might emerge from China.

 

Could the party go on? Yes, if for some reason a significant deterioration in the US labor market, or a deflationary shock from China, or any other surprise that could lead to a cessation of the US tapering could prolong this carry trade. This is not the house base case. We believe it is better to start preparing for a post-QE world. As one of our smartest clients told us: “the main theme in the past five years was QE. If that is coming to an end, investments and themes that worked in the past five years must therefore be questioned.” We agree.

* * *

Yes, Bank of America said all of the above - every brutally honest last word of it.

The question, however, in addition to "why", is whether the Fed also agrees with BofA's stunningly frank, and quite disturbing conclusion, perhaps finally realizing that aside from the US, the biggest house of cards that would topple once the "flow"-free emperor is exposed in his nudity, is that of the world's largest "growth" (and credit) dynamo of the past two decades - China. Because, as noted above, if Lehman's collapse was bad, a deflationary collapse brought on by Chinese hard landing coupled with a full unwind of the global carry trade, would be disastrous and send the world into a depression the likes of which have never before been seen.

Finally, for those who want the blow by blow, here is BofA's tentative take of what the preliminary steps of the next global great depression will look like:

If we do experience a sizable default, the knee-jerk market reaction will be cash hoarding since it will strike as a big surprise. Thus, we expect the repo rate to rise first, while the long term government bond would get bid due to risk aversion flows.

 

However, what follows will be quite uncertain, aside from PBoC injecting liquidity and easing monetary policy to help short term rate come down. It has been proven again and again the Chinese government will get involved and be proactive. The bond market reaction will be different depending on the government solution.

Alas, at that point, not even the world's largest bazooka will be enough.

At this point one should conclude that reality - through massive, unprecedented liquidity injections - has been deferred long enough. It is time to let the markets finally return to some semblance of uncentrally-planned normalcy: there is a reason why nature abhors a vacuum. Even if it means the eruption of the very painful grand reset, washing away decades of capital misallocation, lies and ill-gotten wealth, so very overdue.

 

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Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:40 | 4459793 HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

If things ever REALLY get bad, there's always the holy hand grenade of Antioch.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:50 | 4459831 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Maybe not so bad. If river pig in python is expelled on roadside, may go unnoticed.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:00 | 4459849 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

The reset is way overdue - I agree.  But the current plan seems to be to buy time and trade fiat for gold until the reset.  They all know their currencies aren't worth shit, so a grand rotation has to happen first.

 

Nostradamus: (Cent. 8 Quat. 28)

Les simulacres d'or & argent enflez,
Qu'apres le rapt au lac furent gettez
Au desouvert estaincts tous & troublez.
Au marbre script prescript intergetez.

Translates as:

The copies of gold and silver inflated,
which after the theft were thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated by the debt.
All scripts and bonds will be wiped out.

 

We will return to sound money at some point.

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:01 | 4459865 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Not to worry.

Walmart is bringing jobs back to America.

It seems with more and more people bringing their pets to Walmart stores to go shopping with them, the slogan "Cleanup in Aisle 4" is about to take on a whole new meaning.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:40 | 4460008 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Worry. When the banks start unraveling another major holder of UST's will be zapped. Look for Japanese naval vessels to be sunk and China to occupy any disputed islands with a strong military force. The Japanese government will use this an excuse to void the Constitution (like we have) and mobilize for war. It will be a bloodbath in the South China Sea and on Wall Street as a result.

 

Along with our Pussy in Chief crying for peace like a little bitch.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:45 | 4460020 zaphod
zaphod's picture

But China is suppose to be the next reserve currency, half of ZH's articles lately told me so.

And some people wonder why the Chinese are buying real estate in the US hand over fist.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:46 | 4460026 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Who said they are "buying"??? They are simply trading UST for MBS and taking deeds in lieu.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:39 | 4460210 Stackers
Stackers's picture

They learned their lesson with lehman. They will bailout everyone and everything until the whole system hyper inflates.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:16 | 4460626 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

All these charts just make me want more free bitcoins from http://freebitco.in/?r=25727

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:25 | 4460917 The Vineyard
The Vineyard's picture

Yeah, yeah.  The sky is falling.  We know the drill.  Blockheads.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:46 | 4460950 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Perhaps the Finish Line isn't Hyperinflation, Deflation, or Debt Deflation. Perhaps it's merely a game of positioning at the new/next Bretton Woods Table?

http://twoshortplanksunplugged.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/global-reserve-sdr-or-yuan.html

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 04:45 | 4461117 hobopants
hobopants's picture

"The foundation of all mental illness is the avoidance of legitimate suffering." The majority of people just have their head in the sand and don't want to acknowledge that their way of life is slowly falling apart around them. It's becoming harder to look away everyday. This is panic and desperation we're seeing, not confidence.

We give the people up top too much credit I think, The short term thinking and back stabbing going on could never lend itself to any "Grand" plan. These people are parasites, and parasites don't create or build anything... they die with their host.This isn't 1984, this is decay, the fall of Rome.

One Blessing of the QE "program" has been time, a pretty fair gift to those who see the writing on the wall. Learn to garden, hunt and defend yourself and your own. Plan and prepare, watch and wait. We'll all regret being "right" soon enough.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:42 | 4461686 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

It does seem an inevitability.  Too bad.  There's far too much nuclear stuff out there for anyone to think having gardening knowledge and guns will keep the suffering at bay.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 07:16 | 4464644 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

"They learned their lesson with lehman. They will bailout everyone and everything until the whole system hyper inflates."  a similar point is made in the original article.  imo this points to a false policy duality.

the lehman debacle was not because the creditors/shareholders were not bailed out but because the failure was disorganized.  the fdic oversees, to this day and for decades, the reorganization of insolvent banks.  these typically involve shareholder wipe outs, bondholder haircuts and no losses to depositors.  this should have been the template for recovery from 2008. that it was not is testimony to the self-serving, corrupt political power of the too big to jail, not that a better idea was not available.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:24 | 4463892 Seer
Seer's picture

The person you're responding to mentioned Bretton Woods.  That That came to be pretty much turns your notion on its head that they can't do something just like it: they did it before, they'll do it again.

That said, I'm NOT saying that it'll succeed: please note that given a short enough time frame just about anything can be said to succeed.  As time marches on and population increase we get ever-so-closer to the point at which the consequences of overshoot cannot be denied/avoided.  I think that time is pretty much here, in which case the tricky part in all the global negotiations are really coming down to chosing who lives and who dies (as far as countries go)- those with resources make it (and they'll demand a price for those resources; this is proper given that resources are limited).

"Learn to garden, hunt and defend yourself and your own. Plan and prepare, watch and wait. We'll all regret being "right" soon enough."

Sound advice. (though, time waits for no one- we ought to be busy, each and every day, till we die...)

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 14:10 | 4462496 viahj
viahj's picture

i've been saying this for quite a while now TSP (read your blog the other day).  the SDR will be the global reserve currency.  currently the Yuan is not in the basket, but with all the gold they are buying, the Yuan will be included in the basket with the USD/Euro/Pound being rebalanced in the mix.  not sure about the % of the basket that the Yen will keep and how the Ruble will join in the mix.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 14:23 | 4462555 akak
akak's picture

Frankly, the whole SDR-as-reserve-currency scenario makes utterly no sense to me.

How does combining a number of shitty fiat currencies make the mix any more stable than merely holding the individual shitty fiat currencies?  Divide up the SDR among those who would hold it as a 'reserve', and what you fundamentally have is everyone holding THEIR OWN currencies as a 'reserve'.  Where is the logic in this?

Maybe it's just me, but I would find a basket of turds no more palatable than an individual turd.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:25 | 4463897 Seer
Seer's picture

But, BUT...  If we all hold hands as we jump over the cliff it'll be just so much better!

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 15:31 | 4462778 DerdyBulls
DerdyBulls's picture

until the whole system hyper inflates.

"Until" seems to be in permanent stasis. No economic school wants to face this. Nobody. Check the reserves parked the FED and M1. They mirror each other. So what the monetary base has expanded. Comercial banks are NOT lending into the general economy. M1V is diminishing. This anom has screwed any prior system for projecting inflation and given even broader power to digit creators. What we have here is a very successful PR campaign to nationalize capital markets.  

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 20:24 | 4463757 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Actually, it is projecting inflation, it just isn't being measured. But it is being felt by the consumer. The capital markets are completely broken by design. The nexis of central banks controling the bond market, PLUS the printing press, means the Ponzi is perpetual. The PR campaign is really a bribery campaign of politicans to enable the grand scheme to continue and add the state security teeth to it to enforce it. The consumer is being squeezed and will reach the breaking point with one more engineered collapse. Then TPTB PR campaign will unleash the Debt Finance WMD to "protect" the masses from their wealth destruction (caused by TPTB) by herding the sheeple into new Govt Backed Debt Instruments (ala MyRA on steroids + Reverse Mortgage) to replace their devestated mortgages, 401k's and IRA's. And the sheeple will rejoice at being "saved" by the govt. The final solution of wealth transfer from the masses to the elites. That's why I call it the New Feudal World Order.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:30 | 4463906 Seer
Seer's picture

Two words: Confidence; velocity

At some point the confidence is going to get to the point where TPTB will feel it start to turn on them.  At that point they'll go all in and start dropping money out of the helicopters (velocity) in an attempt to try and pull people back into the "system."  Might also be a way for them to distance themselves from the eventual chaos: like tossing meat to hungry dogs in order to make a get-away: of course, there's no real meat in the "meat," in which case the smoke clears and folks resort to their upheaval.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:50 | 4460261 SMG
SMG's picture

No that would be the SDR or it's equivalent for the new temporary reserve currency.  The future reserve currency will be an asset based cryptocurrency.  Just saying.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:33 | 4460931 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

The dollar will hold swap as long as it can still short gold during asian trading hours.  After that it is the SDR.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 11:42 | 4461925 blueRidgeBoy
blueRidgeBoy's picture

you're assuming we'll have electricity and interweb

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:35 | 4463919 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

I have a stationary bicycle, an alternator, a power inverter, and a router with DD-WRT. The internet is unstoppable. It may be text based rather than media based, but it will always be there for the educated.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 22:17 | 4464021 Seer
Seer's picture

Got food?

(ever have electronic stuff fail on you?)

"Education" is subjective.  Hicks in the sticks might not be able to perform "educated" tricks for the techs, but they can probably survive in the REAL world.

If things get really bad the Internet is going to be locked down tighter than an evangelical's daughter.  You'll have to be working for "Someone" in order to use it...

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:51 | 4463948 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

So, I'm guessing you've wasted your life accumulating fiat? Had you been something other than a greedy cunt, you'd have learned how to build a plethora of electrical generators from scratch, how to nail net hardware together to make it function, and how not to be a whiny bitch in the process.

Your standard of living IS GOING TO DROP; deal with it!

Your options.. and there are only two, so deal with this now and move on... are:

We nail every sociopath on Earth to the nearest fucking post! Good luck cathicing them all, the smarter ones don't advertise!

Or.. we carry on with the 'do fuck all' that is the current plan and they win! Probably forever. Keep the population stoopid enough and you can feed them any line of bullshit and they'll believe it!

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:26 | 4461093 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

"And some people wonder why the Chinese are buying real estate in the US hand over fist"

 

It's because the popualtion of China think the US are cool and friendly. They have Starbucks Nike Apple and Hollywood movies in mind.

Otoh the Chinese politburo WANT to destroy the US as they think you're a bunch of arrogant upstarts and usurpators who've been around for 2 centuries only (that's 2 weeks by Chinese standards = nothing in their eyes). 

 

That's where the dichotomy lies but makes no mistake you'll feel their breath down your neck soon and you'll feel a stinging pain below the belt soon after. 

I don't htink they'll engage into a full-blown frontal war with the US but they'll push you to the brink till you self-destruct. One possibility is "hey USA let's play a game of I'll show mine and you'll show yours : we have XXXX 1000's tonnes of solid gold in our vaults. What about you?". 

Within 6 weeks the US will crumble... or wiil attack China. 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 14:08 | 4462492 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Volaille - I am buying real estate too. I would buy some in China in about oh, about a year if I could afford it. Nothing else worthy of investing and the gains are small for long-term investments.

The Chinese investors that can afford to buy here in America, strongly influence there government (one and the same) are going to make us pay and hurt there own investment? We're going to attack China and hurt our multi-trillion dollar investment?

Sorry man but the most arrogant people are the French who haven't contributed dick globally since the Renessaince. I would say the US will do better with a bit of humility and respect but we see how your opinions make others react.

China and America have a good thing going but leadership ahpuld have started trade rebalancing or at least detente by 2005. It is the little guy that got hurt on both sides the last near decade by the imbalance.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:56 | 4463963 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

You really don't understand the world, do you? EVERY greedy elite cunt wants to be some 'Doctor Evil' James Bond bad guy! All of them! What they'd do with the world once they got it is harder to understand, but hey;....

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 22:23 | 4464036 Seer
Seer's picture

"Otoh the Chinese politburo WANT to destroy the US"

BS

TPTB all run in the same circles.  They know that they ALL depend on one another to keep this game going.  The Chinese version, just like all others, could give a fuck about anything other than maintaining power.

China is resource-poor compared to the US (Russia and Canada).  They've also heated up demand for imports that cannot be sustained.  Internally the pols there will have to battle with Madison Ave (mindset- Edward Bernays' psychology).  Look at all the younger people glued to iShit.  Game fucking over...

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 11:19 | 4461818 InflammatoryResponse
InflammatoryResponse's picture

Actually,  it is AWESOME that we're unloading property to the Chinese, it allows for all sorts of fund raising opportunities.

 

1) Foreign ownership license fee   a % of the value of the property to make sure said property is maintained etc.

2) Vacant house registration.  Any house occupied less than 50% of the time must register.  again a % of the value :)

3) Foreign owned rental license and maint.s tax.

 

 

  well you get the idea by now. :)

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 22:26 | 4464045 Seer
Seer's picture

And then there's the part in the story where the "locals" reappropriate all their domestic land held by foreign entities...

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 05:14 | 4464595 irishlink
irishlink's picture

Not in just the USA also Canada and Ireland. Wealthy Chinese family bought Foto island park in west cork and also e top Dublin hotel on the cheap. They are also active in London. Sydney, Melbourne over the past number of years.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 05:26 | 4464603 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

go ahead and short the yuan.  report back with your findings.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:46 | 4460028 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Ah, so. You see a Chink in their economic armor?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:02 | 4460087 akak
akak's picture

1.3 billion of them, to be precise.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:03 | 4460089 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

i cwhatudidthere

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:06 | 4460766 prains
prains's picture

if you like your chink you can keep your chink

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:41 | 4460833 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Nobody likes chinks. Hell, chinks don't like chinks. Fuck'em!

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 08:44 | 4461331 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Clearly you are ESPN material.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 09:15 | 4461367 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Disney?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:24 | 4461593 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Considering there are 5 times the number of 'chinks' in China compared to round-eyed devils in the US and the fact that their culture pre-dates western civilization by a few thousand years, one can only deduce that you are the pig in this story. 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 13:36 | 4462349 akak
akak's picture

At least we "foreign devils" (nice racism and xenophobia in that, by the way) do not routinely shit on every convenient sidewalk and roadside, unlike the uncouth and constantly spitting antlike hordes of Middle Kingdom fabled past (and present).

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 20:41 | 4463796 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

So...you haven't been to San Francisco lately, have you?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:54 | 4463955 akak
akak's picture

No, I  haven't --- I don't seem to have any trouble finding men willing to shove their arms elbow-deep up my tortured rectum whle tugging on the clamps on my nipples much closer to home.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 15:21 | 4462754 prains
prains's picture

phunny that you think population size and longevity are the TWO requirements for a civilization to be GREAT . That they are the foulest, most corrupt, shit eating, floating shaved pig civilization to ever soil the earth has somehow been LOST to yu. LOFUCKING LLLLLLLLLLL

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 23:34 | 4464226 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

and F. Sawyer is gone for his comments regarding the tribe?

Guess the Chinese Defense League doesn't monitor ZH?

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 01:24 | 4464415 prains
prains's picture

they're too busy milking their country of funds for the eventual escape

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 22:36 | 4464073 Seer
Seer's picture

"Considering there are 5 times the number of 'chinks' in China compared to round-eyed devils in the US"

Given the realities of resource depletion I wouldn't necessarily claim this as an advantage.

If one were to view the defensive capabilities of both countries I'd have to give the clear nod to the US, as it has less land boundaries to defend, and all along those boundaries are "friendlies."

The US can withdraw, as it has a substantial amount of resources to draw down, likely over a much longer period that China can (with its huge population).  And as much as I hate to say it, I think that the US govt actually has more ability to control its citizens than does China: useful for establishing quotas.

"their culture pre-dates western civilization by a few thousand years"

All fine and well for preserving culture.  Preservation and expansion are two different things...  Also, I'd hardly call China's population homogenous (see: Tibet).

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 22:26 | 4464048 Seer
Seer's picture

Warts and all!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:00 | 4460296 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Don't worry.  China makes all the printers now.  They can run them by the millions until all the debts are paid off.

 

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 05:34 | 4464606 CultiVader
CultiVader's picture

Oh God...they can PRINT printers! Game fucking over bro!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:44 | 4460018 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

The longer they are able to hold off the reset and continue to surpress, the higher the eventual price of Gold and Silver. Mike Maloney taught me that years ago in one of his videos. 

At that time, I wanted the reset immediately, but now, hey wait a bit longer, thank you.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:16 | 4460784 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

"...the higher the eventual price of Gold and Silver."

The price? Price?

In terms of what? Every currency will be worthless, and there's a limit to how much toilet paper any person can consume.

I imagine that the "exchange rate" between gold and food will be relatively stable at that point, regardless of what fiat currencies are doing.

 

People are constantly doing this, and it irritates me to no end. Gold/silver/commodities are stores of wealth, not investments. You generally won't be re-converting them into currency until the currencies stabilize.

The only other thing you might be able to use them for is to buy renewable resources, like farmland that produces crops. If you use gold to buy consumables like food, you will eventually run out of gold.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 02:41 | 4461031 JustUsChickensHere
JustUsChickensHere's picture

True about the food issue ... but since gold is the insurance policy of preference, if lack of food becomes your problem, then it is well spent to obtain food.

And this all depends on your personal timeline.  'On a long enough timeline....' - even gold is irrelevant from a personal perspective.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 22:41 | 4464088 Seer
Seer's picture

So, a handful of gold tossed at an hungy, approaching dog will make it stop?

At some fundamental level (think: Food, Shelter and Water) one might only have ONE of gold or food.   Would you be willing to part with your food for gold?

People can jump all over this as they want, but as I often do, I am merely pointing out that going by overly-broad assertions often have some vulnerable spots in them.  Assume nothing.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 16:48 | 4463034 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Gold and Silver, on their own, are money. Yes, you don't always need to convert. For example one ounce of silver may buy 10 gallons of gas now, but the entire gas station later. Value is a better descriptor than "price" in that scenario.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 22:47 | 4464104 Seer
Seer's picture

You know, if it gets that bad I'm thinking that you're going to have a LOT of difficulty maintaining any fuel that might exist in that gas station.  New shipments from where?

I don't necessarily like referring to Mad Max scenarios, but this kind of thing would tend to be drifting into such a realm.  Scarcity of fuel for others might turn out to be scarcity of your life: if folks cannot afford it they'll steal it from you (and, given all the pre-programming of violence against easy other, I'm sure that there will be plenty out there who would readily kill you for it [might be seen as one of the new "1%-ers" (no matter how great of a guy you might be]).

I tend to advocate staying low-key, not all that visible.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 23:38 | 4464241 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Plus, as preppers will remind you, "You can't eat gold (or bitcoin)".

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:46 | 4460245 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

"Cleanup in Aisle 4"

I would love to pass a pig in Jaimie or Bloomfart's office

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:55 | 4461268 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

For Wally world to run those ads is such an outrage against anything honest. Amazingly very few are able to understand what a hot pile of dogshit that campaign is, including Mr. Roe. Alas, Mr. O will have monitors in newsrooms soon to clamp down on such shenanigans

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:41 | 4460013 SMG
SMG's picture

Wow, I went and looked that up at Nostradamous.org.  That's for real.   Eerie.

http://www.nostradamus.org/qbrowser2.php

 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 11:10 | 4461784 Lost Word
Lost Word's picture

Sometimes Nostradamus gives clues to the date.

Not in this quatrain.

Here it could be any currency collapse, such as Weimar Germany in the 1920's.

Or maybe prophecy and history repeats.

 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 12:19 | 4462056 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

4thStooge beat me to it.  Sorry.  Voted myself down for this.

Do you think he was referring to "boating accidents"?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:36 | 4463921 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Title:     Journalism In Tennessee
Author: Mark Twain [More Titles by Twain]

[Written about 1871.]

The editor of the Memphis Avalanche swoops thus mildly down upon a correspondent who posted him as a Radical:--"While he was writing the first word, the middle, dotting his i's, crossing his t's, and punching his period, he knew he was concocting a sentence that was saturated with infamy and reeking with falsehood."--Exchange.

I was told by the physician that a Southern climate would improve my health, and so I went down to Tennessee, and got a berth on the Morning Glory and Johnson County War-Whoop as associate editor. When I went on duty I found the chief editor sitting tilted back in a three-legged chair with his feet on a pine table. There was another pine table in the room and another afflicted chair, and both were half buried under newspapers and scraps and sheets of manuscript. There was a wooden box of sand, sprinkled with cigar stubs and "old soldiers," and a stove with a door hanging by its upper hinge. The chief editor had a long-tailed black cloth frock-coat on, and white linen pants. His boots were small and neatly blacked. He wore a ruffled shirt, a large seal-ring, a standing collar of obsolete pattern, and a checkered neckerchief with the ends hanging down. Date of costume about 1848. He was smoking a cigar, and trying to think of a word, and in pawing his hair he had rumpled his locks a good deal. He was scowling fearfully, and I judged that he was concocting a particularly knotty editorial. He told me to take the exchanges and skim through them and write up the "Spirit of the Tennessee Press," condensing into the article all of their contents that seemed of interest.

I wrote as follows:

SPIRIT OF THE TENNESSEE PRESS

The editors of the Semi-Weekly Earthquake evidently labor under a misapprehension with regard to the Dallyhack railroad. It is not the object of the company to leave Buzzardville off to one side. On the contrary, they consider it one of the most important points along the line, and consequently can have no desire to slight it. The gentlemen of the Earthquake will, of course, take pleasure in making the correction.

John W. Blossom, Esq., the able editor of the Higginsville Thunderbolt and Battle Cry of Freedom, arrived in the city yesterday. He is stopping at the Van Buren House.

We observe that our contemporary of the Mud Springs Morning Howl has fallen into the error of supposing that the election of Van Werter is not an established fact, but he will have discovered his mistake before this reminder reaches him, no doubt. He was doubtless misled by incomplete election returns.

It is pleasant to note that the city of Blathersville is endeavoring to contract with some New York gentlemen to pave its well-nigh impassable streets with the Nicholson pavement. The Daily Hurrah urges the measure with ability, and seems confident of ultimate success.

I passed my manuscript over to the chief editor for acceptance, alteration, or destruction. He glanced at it and his face clouded. He ran his eye down the pages, and his countenance grew portentous. It was easy to see that something was wrong. Presently he sprang up and said:

"Thunder and lightning! Do you suppose I am going to speak of those cattle that way? Do you suppose my subscribers are going to stand such gruel as that? Give me the pen!"

I never saw a pen scrape and scratch its way so viciously, or plow through another man's verbs and adjectives so relentlessly. While he was in the midst of his work, somebody shot at him through the open window, and marred the symmetry of my ear.

"Ah," said he, "that is that scoundrel Smith, of the Moral Volcano--he was due yesterday." And he snatched a navy revolver from his belt and fired--Smith dropped, shot in the thigh. The shot spoiled Smith's aim, who was just taking a second chance and he crippled a stranger. It was me. Merely a finger shot off.

Then the chief editor went on with his erasure; and interlineations. Just as he finished them a hand grenade came down the stove-pipe, and the explosion shivered the stove into a thousand fragments. However, it did no further damage, except that a vagrant piece knocked a couple of my teeth out.

"That stove is utterly ruined," said the chief editor.

I said I believed it was.

"Well, no matter--don't want it this kind of weather. I know the man that did it. I'll get him. Now, here is the way this stuff ought to be written."

I took the manuscript. It was scarred with erasures and interlineations till its mother wouldn't have known it if it had had one. It now read as follows:

SPIRIT OF THE TENNESSEE PRESS

The inveterate liars of the Semi-Weekly Earthquake are evidently endeavoring to palm off upon a noble and chivalrous people another of their vile and brutal falsehoods with regard to that most glorious conception of the nineteenth century, the Ballyhack railroad. The idea that Buzzardville was to be left off at one side originated in their own fulsome brains--or rather in the settlings which they regard as brains. They had better, swallow this lie if they want to save their abandoned reptile carcasses the cowhiding they so richly deserve.

That ass, Blossom, of the Higginsville Thunderbolt and Battle Cry of Freedom, is down here again sponging at the Van Buren.

We observe that the besotted blackguard of the Mud Springs Morning Howl is giving out, with his usual propensity for lying, that Van Werter is not elected. The heaven-born mission of journalism is to disseminate truth; to eradicate error; to educate, refine, and elevate the tone of public morals and manners, and make all men more gentle, more virtuous, more charitable, and in all ways better, and holier, and happier; and yet this blackhearted scoundrel degrades his great office persistently to the dissemination of falsehood, calumny, vituperation, and vulgarity.

Blathersville wants a Nicholson pavement--it wants a jail and a poorhouse more. The idea of a pavement in a one-horse town composed of two gin-mills, a blacksmith shop, and that mustard-plaster of a newspaper, the Daily Hurrah! The crawling insect, Buckner, who edits the Hurrah, is braying about his business with his customary imbecility, and imagining that he is talking sense.

"Now that is the way to write--peppery and to the point. Mush-and-milk journalism gives me the fan-tods."

About this time a brick came through the window with a splintering crash, and gave me a considerable of a jolt in the back. I moved out of range --I began to feel in the way.

The chief said, "That was the Colonel, likely. I've been expecting him for two days. He will be up now right away."

He was correct. The Colonel appeared in the door a moment afterward with a dragoon revolver in his hand.

He said, "Sir, have I the honor of addressing the poltroon who edits this mangy sheet?"

"You have. Be seated, sir. Be careful of the chair, one of its legs is gone. I believe I have the honor of addressing the putrid liar, Colonel Blatherskite Tecumseh?"

"Right, Sir. I have a little account to settle with you. If you are at leisure we will begin."

"I have an article on the 'Encouraging Progress of Moral and Intellectual Development in America' to finish, but there is no hurry. Begin."

Both pistols rang out their fierce clamor at the same instant. The chief lost a lock of his hair, and the Colonel's bullet ended its career in the fleshy part of my thigh. The Colonel's left shoulder was clipped a little. They fired again. Both missed their men this time, but I got my share, a shot in the arm. At the third fire both gentlemen were wounded slightly, and I had a knuckle chipped. I then said, I believed I would go out and take a walk, as this was a private matter, and I had a delicacy about participating in it further. But both gentlemen begged me to keep my seat, and assured me that I was not in the way.

They then talked about the elections and the crops while they reloaded, and I fell to tying up my wounds. But presently they opened fire again with animation, and every shot took effect--but it is proper to remark that five out of the six fell to my share. The sixth one mortally wounded the Colonel, who remarked, with fine humor, that he would have to say good morning now, as he had business uptown. He then inquired the way to the undertaker's and left.

The chief turned to me and said, "I am expecting company to dinner, and shall have to get ready. It will be a favor to me if you will read proof and attend to the customers."

I winced a little at the idea of attending to the customers, but I was too bewildered by the fusillade that was still ringing in my ears to think of anything to say.

He continued, "Jones will be here at three--cowhide him. Gillespie will call earlier, perhaps--throw him out of the window. Ferguson will be along about four--kill him. That is all for today, I believe. If you have any odd time, you may write a blistering article on the police--give the chief inspector rats. The cowhides are under the table; weapons in the drawer--ammunition there in the corner--lint and bandages up there in the pigeonholes. In case of accident, go to Lancet, the surgeon, down- stairs. He advertises--we take it out in trade."

He was gone. I shuddered. At the end of the next three hours I had been through perils so awful that all peace of mind and all cheerfulness were gone from me. Gillespie had called and thrown me out of the window. Jones arrived promptly, and when I got ready to do the cowhiding he took the job off my hands. In an encounter with a stranger, not in the bill of fare, I had lost my scalp. Another stranger, by the name of Thompson, left me a mere wreck and ruin of chaotic rags. And at last, at bay in the corner, and beset by an infuriated mob of editors, blacklegs, politicians, and desperadoes, who raved and swore and flourished their weapons about my head till the air shimmered with glancing flashes of steel, I was in the act of resigning my berth on the paper when the chief arrived, and with him a rabble of charmed and enthusiastic friends. Then ensued a scene of riot and carnage such as no human pen, or steel one either, could describe. People were shot, probed, dismembered, blown up, thrown out of the window. There was a brief tornado of murky blasphemy, with a confused and frantic war-dance glimmering through it, and then all was over. In five minutes there was silence, and the gory chief and I sat alone and surveyed the sanguinary ruin that strewed the floor around us.

He said, "You'll like this place when you get used to it."

I said, "I'll have to get you to excuse me; I think maybe I might write to suit you after a while; as soon as I had had some practice and learned the language I am confident I could. But, to speak the plain truth, that sort of energy of expression has its inconveniences, and a, man is liable to interruption.

"You see that yourself. Vigorous writing is calculated to elevate the public, no doubt, but then I do not like to attract so much attention as it calls forth. I can't write with comfort when I am interrupted so much as I have been to-day. I like this berth well enough, but I don't like to be left here to wait on the customers. The experiences are novel, I grant you, and entertaining, too, after a fashion, but they are not judiciously distributed. A gentleman shoots at you through the window and cripples me; a bombshell comes down the stovepipe for your gratification and sends the stove door down my throat; a friend drops in to swap compliments with you, and freckles me with bullet-holes till my skin won't hold my principles; you go to dinner, and Jones comes with his cowhide, Gillespie throws me out of the window, Thompson tears all my clothes off, and an entire stranger takes my scalp with the easy freedom of an old acquaintance; and in less than five minutes all the blackguards in the country arrive in their war-paint, and proceed to scare the rest of me to death with their tomahawks. Take it altogether, I never had such a spirited time in all my life as I have had to-day. No; I like you, and I like your calm unruffled way of explaining things to the customers, but you see I am not used to it. The Southern heart is too impulsive; Southern hospitality is too lavish with the stranger. The paragraphs which I have written to-day, and into whose cold sentences your masterly hand has infused the fervent spirit of Tennesseean journalism, will wake up another nest of hornets. All that mob of editors will come--and they will come hungry, too, and want somebody for breakfast. I shall have to bid you adieu. I decline to be present at these festivities. I came South for my health, I will go back on the same errand, and suddenly. Tennesseean journalism is too stirring for me."

After which we parted with mutual regret, and I took apartments at the hospital.

-THE END-

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 23:02 | 4464143 Seer
Seer's picture

What more could be said of "Twain" that hasn't already been said.  Yeah, Hunter S. Thompson had some of him in him, but no one has ever been as pure a "Twain" as Twain.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:43 | 4460016 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

The copies of gold and silver inflated,
which after the theft were thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated by the debt.
All scripts and bonds will be wiped out.

The stacks of gold and silver bought by ZH readers,
Which after boating accidents were lost in a lake,
At the discovery that all is odious and repudiated debt,
Turns out stacks had fallen into drywells and ice chests.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:07 | 4460100 akak
akak's picture

When money men rain from the skies

And shadow coins fly across the planet

Then shall the New City fall into disgrace

Fortune and power dissipated like scraps of green paper.

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:25 | 4460663 Hulk
Hulk's picture

That was good Akak, now in French !!!

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:47 | 4461126 akak
akak's picture

Quand les hommes d'argent pleut de le ciel

Et les pieces fantomes volent dans tout le monde

Alors tombera la Ville Nouvelle dans deshonneur

La fortune et le pouvoir dissipees comme les bouts de papier vert.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 06:07 | 4461176 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

The copies of gold and silver inflated,
which after the theft were thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated by the debt.
All scripts and bonds will be wiped out

 

In lolcat:

Demz duplikatz of humfungous cheezburgerz 

u can haz nots coz dems nicked n innadrink

Oh hai! allovit gone 2 dawgs

sumtink bout prescripshun pills for Jaymz 007 got kanclled :(


Fri, 02/21/2014 - 08:46 | 4461335 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

In Steve Miller:

Someone get me a cheesburger!!!

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 11:36 | 4461842 Lost Word
Lost Word's picture

Nostradamus was from a Christian family that had been Jewish a few generations earlier.

Nostradamus wrote several hundred quatrains.

Only a small percentage have been definitely decoded; most are uncertain in exact historical meaning.

Some of his quatrains were written about the past, not always the future.

It seems to me that one of the reasons Nostradamus was looking into the future was to see when the Messiah would arrive.

In addition to his quatrains, Nostradamus also wrote a long letter to his son, which letter also seems to contain prophecies.

As far as I can interpret, Nostradamus did not give an exact date for the arrival of the Messiah.

Nostradamus wrote a few prophecies about the Paris car crash of Princess Diana.

Perhaps someday I will publish my interpretations.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 13:56 | 4462429 11b40
Sat, 02/22/2014 - 12:12 | 4462430 11b40
11b40's picture

..dup

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:25 | 4460166 MollyHacker
MollyHacker's picture

(Cent. 8 Quat. 28) = 28+8=36
36-20=16 ~ 2016 / 8 = October

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:04 | 4460580 TheAnswerIs42
TheAnswerIs42's picture

Google translate:

Gold and silver inflated dummies,
After the theft at the lake were gettez
And dissipated in that all is.
Marble script prescript intergetez.


Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:59 | 4461169 PT
PT's picture

Look!  The flappy planes are beeping in the stick towers.

Sorry.  Yes, I know I'm quickly drifting way off topic but you guys started it and I got carried away by the momentum.

http://xkcd.com/1322/

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:05 | 4460584 logicalman
logicalman's picture

As soon as that happens, another bunch of criminals will jump up and attempt to set up yet another central banking system. It's too good a system for greedy fucks not to keep taking advantage of.

A lot of responsibility lies with the people who can't be bothered to educate themselves and make their own decisions.

This is what the human race needs to find a way to fix, and fast.

 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:15 | 4460783 jaxville
jaxville's picture

  Excellent article ... I do question the unwinding of the carry trade that resulted from QE. I remember how vast the USD/JPY carry trade became and at current rates it seems completely untenable. How was it unwound without sending huge masses of currency to dollar heaven?

 

  No doubt the Chinese economy is well into bubble territory but I suspect that bubble will get a lot bigger before the poop hits the fan.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:51 | 4461164 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Or, it will never HTF...post-war environment is quite different.

For one, players will all be different, no?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 02:46 | 4461038 JustUsChickensHere
JustUsChickensHere's picture

As of a few years ago, the combination of crypto-currency(s), with Au and Ag as historically trusted stores of wealth, a solution has been found that offers global (and local) security of trade settlement without a central bank.

Of course, those who profit from the central bank scam will use every tool at their disposal to con Joe Public into staying with their scam.. and given Joe Public's track record for critical analysis, I suspect the central bank scam will continue with only slightly diminished success.

 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:13 | 4460898 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Remember that Kyle Bass touched upon China and it's massive QE program and credit, and how NPLs will most likely spike in coming years.

 

at the 50:00 mark he begins to discuss it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:37 | 4461664 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It's a real public service to refer people to this talk. He makes several very important points that everyone on here needs to listen to carefully. It's always a bit of shock to listen to him because it's a temporary return to a world of basic facts and reality; whereas all one usually hears is special interest pleading and ignorant babbling about the obsession of the moment.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 23:47 | 4464249 Seer
Seer's picture

Kyle Bass, the real man that Hendry would have liked to have been...  Last man standing?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 11:53 | 4461956 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

@nope-1004: "We will return to sound money at some point."

Of course.  But I would not be so certain that it's all based on gold:  "Sound money" simply means "Currency based on sound Assets".

And "Sound Assets" can (and probably should) involve: A basket of Precious Metals, and maybe more.  This makes it more likely for the G20 to adopt the new model. 

If it were me, I'd insist that a baseline of a nation's currency be based on their PM, their Giga-Watts of Renewable Energy and Natural Resources.  Their currency could then be increased in value by the strength of their economy -- as a measure of what "value add" of their Labor force, to turn resources+energy into goods+services.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 00:02 | 4464275 Seer
Seer's picture

Kirk, I think that based on how we've operated to-date that this is as sound a "solution" as exists.  However...

It beckons for growth, for extraction of PMs and for minerals for building up renewable energy systems.  Again, this equation leverages energy in the process of extracting other non-renewable elements: yes, I realize that energy can be used to reclaim, but at some point, due to loss in conversion, the iterations can but only end (most likely due to too much energy required).

In the end I see it coming to the same basic conclusion, though for sure it would push that day out farther into the future.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 13:48 | 4462395 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Whoah! I just gave NOPE - 1004 one click on upvofe and it got 50 of them!
ZeroHedge, whatever algo your using on voting, please stop. This is not the first time though perhaps I am the first to speak up about it. Look, banking is becoming boring as I have said it will, the gig is up no way to avoid the second leg of pain and banking is trying a refreshingly honest approach. We are now moving into the time period where presenting solutions is going to have a listening ear. Such cannot be biased if we want to continue to contribute and I know many people here have and do.

Second, since we are discussing solutions please add an instant or private messenger service so some of us can continue dialogue and problem solve on particular subjects. I like FreeRepublic's reply system for example. I know the arguments against this which are business driven but there are ways to meet this demand while users remain on your platform.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 00:04 | 4464279 Seer
Seer's picture

Well, be sure to start with the fundamental that perpetual growth on a finite planet is NOT possible.  If not, then any "solution" is as good as any other, no matter how poor or how great it might be/sound.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:40 | 4461150 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

go Long nail guns .........lots of em'

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:44 | 4461258 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:38 | 4461669 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Well, you sure put that into a frame that anyone can understand.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 00:08 | 4464284 Seer
Seer's picture

The planet isn't going to disappear with our virtual economic issues.

Better would be to have a picture of all (responsible/affected?) humans in their various "role" costumes holding hands, with the lead element being a representation of "wealth", all being sucked into that black hole.  Circling, and also heading down the shitter, would be all of our various material things.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 08:32 | 4461310 Jannn
Jannn's picture

Bundesbank Attempts to Subdue Concerns Gold Repatriation http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/bundesbank-attempts-to-subdue-concerns-gold-...

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 11:34 | 4461888 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Schroedinger's Pig in Monty Python.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 11:34 | 4461889 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Schroedinger's Pig in Monty Python.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 20:33 | 4463777 rotagen
rotagen's picture

Humans do 2 things wrong that will kill them, they can't understand the exponential function and they don't understand the Fact that money is created from nothing by a few Fed Reserve families.  I get soooo tired of seeing stories like this, from someone whose mind is buried in the matrix.  

Ellen Brown has a lot of fascinating material on China and the Orient in her book The Public Bank Solution. I have no argument with calling China totalitarian, but I wouldn’t call it capitalist. It is definitely a mixed economy, with somewhere around 50% of the production done by state-owned enterprises. The US is a mixed economy too, with around half of the economy dependent on government according to economist James Galbraith. The difference is that in China the government is in control, not the bankers, so Chinese banks serve their productive economy. Virtually all Chinese banks are government owned. We’d be better off if our government had the upper hand too rather than the parasitic banks.

And guess what, China just made it WAY easier for its banks to write off bad loans.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:42 | 4459802 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Bad news for Vancouver and Deetroit crack houses.

Oh, the humanity!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:42 | 4459805 libsareajoke
libsareajoke's picture

my god, blow the fuck up already.  I'm tired of waiting for this crap to explode

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:06 | 4459885 BandGap
BandGap's picture

You're tired, just like the majority of us. We want (well maybe not) the ultimate unwind to start too.

But please, it won't happen all at once, certainly not in a day. It is happening, look around yourself.

Quit fucking whining. And pray.

 

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:26 | 4459957 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

 “How did you go bankrupt?" 

"Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

— Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:39 | 4460004 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

When this shit-storm finally does come to fruition let it be known to all.....:

This farmer WILL NOT ACCEPT imaginary, digital currency for my produce. 

Que PhoneyStar.........

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:03 | 4460312 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

You already do. And when it finally becomes clear how imaginary the digital currency you're now accepting (unless you deal exclusively in hard cash and don't have a bank account), you'll realize how incredibly imaginative crypto-currencies are and what a revolution they have launched.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 08:17 | 4461294 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Thank you for your concern, but my wealth lies in my self-sustainability.  I pity the folks who've surrounded themselves with 'ammenities', and have a child-like dependence on systems and others to produce the most basic of needs for them.  Modern entitled Americans have long forgotten what it means to be 'without'.....they will soon learn and the outcome will be dire.

Enjoy your concrete jungles, cubicles, and trinkets while the clock is still running.   

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 15:06 | 4461795 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

You may be describing the vast majority of Americans (at least the ones who still have jobs), but you aren't describing me. And while you may be able to live entirely "self-sustainably" and not have to associate — "truck, barter, and exchange," in Adam Smith's words — with your fellow man, your avatar suggests that there's something a bit less ascetic about you.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 20:35 | 4463754 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Self-sustainability doesn't necessarily correlate with asceticism.  Perhaps the idea is new to you?

Of course, we do grow most all of our produce and raise some of our own meat (poultry).  We barter for goat cheese/milk and grass fed beef from neighbors.  They have specialties we support.  We also raise and sell honey bees and hold premaculture workshops.  We've looked into CSA programs, but we've had a hard enough time keeping the USDA's noses out of our business w/o opening this door to them.  

We are hardly ascetic, but I do sometimes wish I had the constitution to have such a life-style....

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 22:08 | 4463991 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

OK, I'm with you, bfa. It's just that when you say that you "WILL NOT ACCEPT imaginary, digital currency for [your] produce," you know as well as I do that insofar as you accept credit/debit cards in the conduct of your busines, you accept "dollars," and you very therefore definitely do accept an "imaginary, digital currency for [your] produce."

You're obviously far enough along to underand this and are therefore far enought along to understand what the cryptocurrency revolution is all about. So I suggest that you spend some time doing so.

Even if you disagree (though if you're a true freedom-lover, you won't), what have you got to lose?

Here's something for starters:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/why-bitcoin-matters/


Fri, 02/21/2014 - 22:23 | 4464031 akak
akak's picture

Perhaps he simply does NOT accept debit or credit cards?  It IS possible, you know.

I have my own small business, and although it may shock you I do not accept either credit or debit cards either --- to the occasional consternation of potential customers, the startled and/or dismayed and/or outraged looks on their faces being compensation enough for me on those occasions.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 23:57 | 4464257 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Do you have money in a bank? 

If so, good luck:

http://thecommonsenseshow.com/2013/10/18/dont-leave-your-money-in-the-ba...

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 00:06 | 4464283 akak
akak's picture

A minimal amount, to be sure, to cover certain routine and monthly expenses.

And what has that to do with accepting or not accepting credit and debit cards, if I may ask?

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 00:23 | 4464315 Seer
Seer's picture

Of course it's all going to zero.  However, at least for now, all these shitty virtual currencies have (and are) standing.

As you note, it's highly likely that not too many people do operate totally outside such currencies.

Lastly, the crypto stuff is dead.  I've had exposure to what most of the world is like and in no way could it ever DO crypto-currencies.  The overwhelming percentage of humans are POOR, too poor to deal in crypto-currencies.  Now then, I'm certain that there will be elites doing stuff like that, but, well, you'd have to end up in that class (and with the overwhelming poor in the world getting hammered even more you have to wonder just how well you can fortress yourself in).

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:14 | 4460771 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

I have to because the neighbors would expect nothing less from the guy that bought a Fendt in NA in 2000 ; ) Vario rules bitchez, the chicks dig it too!

It's ok, I'm ready should the BTC offer be made. I'm willing. 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:41 | 4461685 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

What;s a Fendt? Is it some wonderful thing that's supposed to make us think you're successful? I've never heard of it whatever it is.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 20:33 | 4463781 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

It's an ornament; a beacon of hope to the starving masses of city folk who are on a quest for fresh pasture to pillage.

They really are nice machines, but they are for much larger producers....

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:00 | 4465858 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

Early adoption was my point.

Fuel efficiency was my reason.

 

Much larger compared to what? On a scale of the food producers in this world, we wouldn't even register.

An ornament? HUH?  LOL, It's a prime mover. Humanity is on a path towards 10B people of which 8B will be city dwellers and nothing you or I do is going to stop that. My job is to feed them and that was my choice. Their job is to figure out how to sustain 10 billion people. 

Energy is the tie that binds urban and rural. Efficiency and retooling are the keys. Fendt Vario took the world one tiny step closer.

You sure Love cannot be wrong?... Your avatar is blinding ; )

[II. Apollo / Dionysus]

[Apollo: Bringer Of Wisdom]
'I bring truth and understanding
I bring wit and wisdom fair
Precious gifts beyond compare
We can build a world of wonder
I can make you all aware
I will find you food and shelter
Show you fire to keep you warm
Through the endless winter storm
You can live in grace and comfort
In the world that you transform'

The people were delighted
Coming forth to claim their prize
They ran to build their cities
And converse among the wise
But one day the streets fell silent
Yet they knew not what was wrong
The urge to build these fine things
Seemed not to be so strong
The wise men were consulted
And the Bridge of Death was crossed
In quest of Dionysus
To find out what they had lost

[Dionysus: Bringer Of Love]
'I bring love to give you solace
In the darkness of the night
In the Heart's eternal light
You need only trust your feelings
Only love can steer you right
I bring laughter, I bring music
I bring joy and I bring tears
I will soothe your primal fears
Throw off those chains of reason
And your prison disappears'

The cities were abandoned
And the forests echoed song
They danced and lived as brothers
They knew love could not be wrong
Food and wine they had aplenty
And they slept beneath the stars
The people were contented
And the gods watched from afar
But the winter fell upon them
And it caught them unprepared
Bringing wolves and cold starvation
And the hearts of men despaired...

 

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:45 | 4460025 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Papa had a variation on that theme.

  "I went broke slowly, then all at once."

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:24 | 4463878 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

My Dad had one too.  I never really paid any attention to it until I was all 'grows' up.

 

"Some people think wealth is what they owe, others by what they own.  Strive to be the latter."

 

He was a farmer.

 

<Thank you Pops>

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 00:25 | 4464321 Seer
Seer's picture

"I'm independently poor."

That one worked to attract my current wife :-)

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:33 | 4459983 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

wtc, iraq afganistan,libya, sandy hook, boston, syria, africa, venezuela, fukushima (brought to you on 3/11/2011), geo weather (no rain in the land of 90% of the food grown in this country), gmo food, patriot act, ndaa, executive orders, forced health care...we've got action for sure

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:27 | 4460399 Tsukato
Tsukato's picture

Don't forget Israel and the god damned Intifada! We've been abused daily for for what, the last 14 years?! Unfuckingbelievable! Time for sending a nice little white phosphorus gift to the West Bank. Some assholes never learn.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 04:10 | 4461101 PhilofOz
PhilofOz's picture

Are you paid for this drivel?!

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 21:16 | 4463871 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Fs, that is not you right..  I hope not this character is repulsive.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:43 | 4459808 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

OMG,  I can't wait for the immoral socialists to be punished by the Flaming Sword of Libertarian Justice; and then I'll be able to BTFD and I'll be the richest Libertarian in the land, and buy all the politicians, and have all the females with the largest teeth and hair!!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:46 | 4459818 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Yes, but you'll still have to compete with Jamie and Lloyd,

  for ze leetle boyz.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:56 | 4459847 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re: Yes, but you'll still have to compete with Jamie and Lloyd

When the Flaming Sword of Libertarian Justice is finished with China they'll be wiped out too.   

The rightous Libertarians will finally have proven that "the Australian economist with the German name" was right all along:  that morality and prudence are the path to rightousness.     The Libertarians way of life will become the model for the next 1000 years.    The females will the largest teeth and hair will crave to have semi-austistic Libertarians tell them about saving for the future and acting prudently with their finances to prepare for their golden years.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:02 | 4459872 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

That last thousand year Reich didn't work out so well for my side.

Let's try it one decade at a time;)

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 03:23 | 4461067 hobopants
hobopants's picture

Lol what are you babbling about? Are you suppose to be a troll? or maybe upset one of those "swords of justice" found it's way into your girlfriend or mother? Tell me im curious, what made you this way?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 08:23 | 4461299 macbone
macbone's picture

<<-- not curious... Not at all.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:08 | 4459895 steelhead23
steelhead23's picture

Were one to look carefully at the balance sheet of China's central bank over time, I'm guessing you would find that while GDP in 1990 was a fraction of today's China, its debt to GDP ratio was likely lower back when it was a full-fledge socialist economy.  Seems like it takes capitalism to really put the peasants in their place.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:41 | 4460218 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Where do you see capitalism? I don't see it anywhere. Read some von Mises and then we can talk about capitalism.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:04 | 4460762 Lore
Lore's picture

It is interesting how the central bank always lies at the center of these apocalyptic scenarios - almost like the CB is construed as a root problem.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 17:30 | 4463257 scrappy
scrappy's picture

Pick up this book, you might be very surprised to find all about Von Mises fallacies.  I double dare you Dawg.

The Mason Gaffney Reader: Essays on Solving the "Unsolvable"

http://www.amazon.com/The-Mason-Gaffney-Reader-Unsolvable/dp/0974184462/...

After the Crash: Designing a Depression-free Economy

http://www.amazon.com/After-Crash-Designing-Depression-free-Economy/dp/1...

A simple example.

http://www.henrygeorge.org/isms.htm

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:59 | 4460292 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Communist Party Controlled Fascism, you mean? There is nothing even resembling Capitalism in China.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:12 | 4460618 logicalman
logicalman's picture

There's only one 'ism' that holds any hope.

ANARCHISM

Government is the problem.

No point looking to government to fix the problem.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 09:08 | 4461308 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

THERE ARE NO POLITICAL SOLUTIONS. Even ANARCHISM will not serve you well.

 

It is not just that Government is the problem. It goes far deeper. The people whom give their implied consent to the Government are even more of a problem. The underlying CORRUPTION within them is the driving force of the implied consent.

 

You reject the Spiritual Solution. So you place your hope into Humanity, flawed human beings? Really? That is illogical. 

 

Where there is a lack of order there can be no order. Thus there is no foundation upon which to erect a construct of order. Chaos leads to destruction.

 

The Spiritual corruption is that which manifests into the Physical. Unless there is a profound change from within one's self, and many others, then one can only expect that the path to destruction is all but assured.

 

You look toward the outside for solutions when you need to be seeking change from within yourself. If you are powerless to affect that change on your own...and you, as everyone else, ARE POWERLESS...then you had best seek it from your Creator...that which you irrationally reject.

 

"If only the people will willingly accept volunteerism", is a PIPE DREAM. It is NOT REALITY. And according to the precepts of anarchocapitalism, which you espouse, you cannot force others to accept volunteerism, overtly or covertly. That is the flaw in your Fantasyland ideal which cannot EVER be realized.

 

What "could be", what "should be" and what "would be" IS THAT WHICH IS NOT. Even if you had the power you cannot force others to adopt the idea.

 

So anarchy is not a valid hope. You might as well abandon that.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 11:53 | 4461957 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

I hope this isn't a goD post.

You can keep that invisible asshole to yourself.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 12:14 | 4462046 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I have met many people of age and not one of them that refused to grow up was happy. The real asshole is not invisible to those around you.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 12:12 | 4462037 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Good stuff.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 00:35 | 4464334 Seer
Seer's picture

Have a bit of enlightenment:

ANARCHISM: IDEOLOGY OR METHODOLOGY?

http://www.spunk.org/library/intro/practice/sp001689.html

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 08:41 | 4464645 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

FROM THE ARTICLE (thank you)

 

Humans don't like being told what to do, or being kept in bondage. If they did, those in power wouldn't spend so much time, energy, and money hoodwinking you into thinking you're free when in truth you're a slave. The anarchist's role in all of this is merely to create that initial awareness, and to communicate organizational methods that weaken and destroy authority, and let the process take care of itself.

 

Wel that is not the reality. That is a Pipe Dream. Through the Milleniums of Human "Civilization" it has been proven from Time Immemorium that people do like to be told what to do. They may claim that they do not. But just as the difference between the "Inductive" and "Deductive" Anarchist there is a difference between the "Deductive" and "Inductive" SLAVE.

 

I do not know about your tastes in music but one of my favorite Satanic Rock Bands is Oingo Boingo. While I am diametrically opposed to Satanism, Danny Elfman, a Musical and Lyrical Genius, exposes the underlying reality with his song "Grey Matter" Here is a link for your enjoyment...I will include the lyrics of the "uneditted" earlier version...so that it is clear what he is singing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0Fc9lvRMy0

They say you're stupid
That you're too young to vote
They say you'll swallow anything
That they shove down your throat

They say you can't think
That you haven't got a brain
That you're just there to listen
That you're just being trained

CHORUS
There's something inside your head
There's something inside your head
There's something inside your head
There's something inside your head

They say you lost the ability to even think
That your tiny little brain
Slipped down the kitchen sink

They say that you'll buy anything
That they turn your way
That you'll listen to everything
That they decide to play

CHORUS
Grey matter grey matter ooh . . .
Grey matter grey matter ooh . . .
Grey matter grey matter ooh . . .
Grey matter grey matter ooh . . .

BRIDGE
I think you like it--like it
To be told what to do--ain't that true
I think you're better--better--better off
Stone cold dead--without your head

They say you're stupid
That you're too young to vote
They say you'll swallow anything
That they shove down your throat

If they say lie down, you'll do it
If they say--buy it now--you'll do it
If they say--turn around--you'll do it
If they say--hit the ground--you'll do it
If they say--bite the big weenie--you'll do it
If they say--wasn't that good--you'll do it
If they say--bend over baby--you'll do it
If they say--take it up the ass--you'll do it  (Earliest versions)

 

The UNDERLYING PSYCHOLOGY for people behaving as this is that they have an inate desire to avoid taking PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. The vast majority of people, throughout History, have refused to do this. It is not just endemic in America. It is endemic throughout the Human Experience. And that is something that you cannot change. That is why that there is no hope that it will work.

 

If you reject the Kingdom of God and buy into the Animal Kingdom then you still will have to admit that Humans are Herd Animals that follow an Alpha in the Herd. That is Hard Wired into our DNA. It is instinctual and allowed for our survival when Humans were Neolithic.

 

You might be able to change yourself. But you cannot change another Human Being.

 

The United States was a grand experiment, a noble experiment, an anarchist experiment (utilizing the capitalization Nomenclature within the article), in declaring that it is the PERSON who is Sovereign.

 

The Founders declared that it was that the people were to exercise their own Sovereignity and empower the Fledgling Government through their consent. There has not ever been a Nation that had as much Freedom and Liberty in the History of Man.

 

It degenerated into what we have presently.

 

IT HAS FAILED. THAT IS THE REALITY. We, as a Nation today, are under a more Tyrannical Regime than that which was imposed by King George. It is UNDENIABLE. IT IS EVIDENTIAL.

 

(Note that I neglected to address "Absolute Truths" which do exist as they are CONSEQUENCES of of both  Natural and Spiritual Laws.)

 

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:18 | 4459936 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Dude, a real American would understand.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:36 | 4460208 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Careful, that could be Obummer.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:53 | 4460738 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Like he said "A real American" would understand.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:09 | 4459810 Rainman
Rainman's picture

You mean the Chinese commies have been lying all along ?? < EGAD !! > < shocked face >

Paging Larry Lang ! .. Mister Larry " all provinces of China are Greece " Lang !

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:31 | 4460194 lewietheparrot
lewietheparrot's picture

Rainman,

You know they are honorable people

Like we the people, the instructions will be:

"Tell him the check is in the mail; then, hang up and leave the phone off the hook."

Coming everywhere to a country near you!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 00:36 | 4464338 Seer
Seer's picture

We've all become caught up in the absurdity that is us...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:44 | 4459813 Nid
Nid's picture

Accorind to US Equities, noone actually know this...... weird.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:07 | 4459891 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

You can't even short it.
No counter parties will be left standing to pay.
Gold and cash.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:52 | 4460732 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Gold and silver.  Cash will end up being zimbabwe´d.

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