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UBS On Goldilocks Hope And Emerging Market Vulnerabilities

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A considerable area of investor concern rmains on emerging economies. As UBS' Larry Hatheway notes, the last thing that vulnerable emerging economies need at the moment is worries about a global growth slowdown, if that is indeed what is happening. That’s particularly true given that one of the relative few bright spots in the emerging complex of late was improved PMIs, reflecting some pickup in global manufacturing, exports and trade. While that lift might not help the down-trodden commodity producers within the emerging complex, it is helpful for the more manufacturing-oriented economies of Asia, selected parts of EMEA, or Latin America. But as Hatheway warns below, emerging vulnerability is about much more than just growth.

Emerging economy vulnerabilities (via UBS' Larry Hatheway)

It reflects the convergence of several challenges, including unsustainable increases in indebtedness (relative to GDP), current account deterioration, and the prospect of tighter global liquidity (and funding) conditions as the Fed proceeds with its tapering program.

The risks inherent in the emerging complex have been well documented. And to be sure, China is not the major concern. Recent attention-getting headlines about wobbly trusts are, of course, useful reminders of China’s overly rapid credit growth and misallocation of resources, but it is unlikely that a ‘trust bust’ heralds a growth-destabilizing credit event in China.

But when we turn to the ‘fragile five’ (and others with similar characteristics), we note considerable risks to emerging market asset returns, and potentially to global financial stability and growth.

Much has been made of the facts that current account deficit financing among emerging economies has been mainly via local currency-denominated portfolio inflows and that the countries in question have flexible monetary and exchange rate policies. Hence, a repeat of the Asian balance of payments crisis in its form and with its consequences (e.g., default on foreign currency liabilities) is less likely.

That’s correct, but those facts alone don’t ensure benign outcomes for either the countries at risk or for global capital markets. To begin, countries such as Turkey or South Africa, which have persistent large current account deficits, will have to reduce domestic spending relative to domestic output in order to return to more sustainable positions. Given limited potential for either a strong cyclical lift in the demand for their exports or for an autonomous increase in domestic output, domestic demand will have to slow to achieve a more sustainable external balance.

Growth can either slow gradually, with the help of the right policies or abruptly, via a sudden stop of foreign financing.

Some might argue that exchange rate depreciation can also facilitate the adjustment. Possibly, but the potential for currency depreciation is limited by several factors. First, domestic rates of inflation in the India, Brazil, Turkey or South Africa are relatively high. Weaker exchange rates will push up import prices. As a result, changes in real exchange rates are likely to be small. Second, and perhaps more worrisome, is the reality that reliance on local-currency portfolio inflows means that currency risk has shifted to the foreign holders of those assets. If they begin to get nervous about currency risk they may try to liquidate existing holdings and balk at financing prevailing current account deficits. In either case, moderate currency depreciation could become a rout. Domestic interest rates would spike, putting a sharp brake on growth. And that could lead to social and political unrest.

That’s why we struggle to agree with recent comments by some high-profile investors, extolling the valuation case for emerging equities (mostly) or local currency debt markets. Sure, emerging equity valuations are low. But investors are not looking for value alone. Their primary focus remains on earnings. And if big chunks of the emerging complex are likely to experience slower growth (as external demand remains sluggish and domestic demand softens), then profit margins and asset turnover will fail to impress. Equally, if emerging currencies wobble it will introduce greater volatility into dollar- (or euro-) denominated returns from local currency holding. As a result, ex ante emerging Sharpe ratios don’t look very attractive.

The implication is that a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario is required for emerging equity, bond and currency markets to outperform. Global growth will have to be strong enough to facilitate the required improvement in net exports, but not so strong as to elicit a re-think about the Fed’s gradual approach to monetary policy—one that would send bond yields higher and exacerbate current account financing. Goldilocks scenarios are, of course, very nice. But they aren’t terribly frequent or long-lasting.

 

 

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Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:13 | 4459700 superflex
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Schwing!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:22 | 4459738 bania
bania's picture

and imagine if she were holding her pussy... cat!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:27 | 4459759 InjectTheVenom
Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:21 | 4459942 superflex
superflex's picture

My eyes!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:47 | 4460030 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Please never do that again, not cool

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 21:05 | 4460096 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

"Goldilocks scenarios are, of course, very nice. But they aren’t terribly frequent or long-lasting."

When Goldilocks looks like that, I'd have to agree. At least in my experience.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:30 | 4459772 Jannn
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BuBa: Half of German gold reserves will be stored in Germany by 2020

 

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/buba-half-german-gold-reserves-will-stored-g...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:16 | 4459924 seek
seek's picture

That's predicated on some deliveries I'm fairly sure won't actually happen, in spite of what Thiele says.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:16 | 4459711 fonzannoon
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It's good to see UBS take a break from stuffing their clients with puerto rico muni's and warn us about risks and vulnerabilities.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:30 | 4459775 Leveraged Algorithm
Leveraged Algorithm's picture

UBS U Been Screwed...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:57 | 4459852 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

yeah, no shit. Should we even be surprised that the delusion threshold has been crossed here? These folks are all living in Disney World.

I think the Russians "blaming" Europe is dispositive. Yet another reason not to go anywhere near (financially speaking) whatever "Ukraine" is.

Not that we aren't over there already.
As the French say "we only need one American."

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:22 | 4459737 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture

In Thailand the whores have yet to lower their prices.  so I guess inflation before deflation.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 19:57 | 4459854 DavrosoftheDaleks
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Once I clicked on the story, I realized that's not the Ghostbusters Icon...bummer!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 20:31 | 4459973 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

As this market inevitably climbs the wall of worry higher and higher you may as well buy everything on any down-ticks.  Clearly we are going meaningfully higher and there is ZERO risk to the downside. none, nada, not happening, this time is different.

 

We have finally solved the problem of the business cycle, just print money with no limits till the sun burns out.  It was right in front of us all along!  

 

If you can't wait for a down-tick just buy the highs for when they FED announces its next QE program and we begin the next leg up towards our 2016 target of ES 5000 it wont really matter if you bought em at 1840, 1850 or 1900.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:18 | 4460363 Kirk2NCC1701
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UBS on Emerging Market Vulnerabilities: "We like Gold.  Heidi Gold."

Do you like Heidi Gold?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 09:40 | 4461424 zippy_uk
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So... Goldilocks is bent over and vulnerable in the hope of an emerging market bulge...?

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