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Guest Post: Can Ukraine Be Saved?
Authored by Yevhen Bystrytsky, originally posted at Project Syndicate,
Acrid black smoke hangs in the air and stings the eye in much of central Kyiv, where state repression is dampening hope of resolving Ukraine’s political crisis. With a truce between the government and the opposition shattered only hours after it came into effect, and with dozens of people reported killed in recent days, any hope for an end to the country’s deepening civil disorder appears to be fading fast.
Yes, a tentative settlement has been reached, following mediation by European Union foreign ministers, with a promise of early elections. But such settlements have been proposed before, and no agreement is likely to gain broad acceptance unless it includes the immediate departure of President Viktor Yanukovich.
In fact, Yanukovich’s government seems prepared to use any and all measures to remain in power. Taking a page from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, tax police are prosecuting civil-society organizations in the hope of cowing them into silence and irrelevance. Yet, despite such intimidation, Ukrainians from all walks of life have been protesting for three months in cities across the country.
At its heart, this is a struggle between Ukraine’s European-oriented West and its Russian-fixated East for the country’s geopolitical soul. Will Ukraine move closer to the European Union or instead join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union?
Despite the mounting violence, Ukraine is not on the verge of civil war – at least not yet. But make no mistake: the risk of the country – and its military – splintering is very real, as Yanukovich’s decision to sack Volodymyr Zamana, the head of the armed forces, attests. The conflict needs to be stopped now.
To achieve that, Ukraine needs a transitional government of experts and a new constitution that returns the country to the system that prevailed until a decade ago, with power divided between Parliament and the president. Moreover, a presidential election should be held within three months, with a new parliament voted in soon after.
But Yanukovich has shown that he does not want a negotiated solution. Until the recent surge in violence, it seemed that dialogue might defuse tensions. An amnesty for detained protesters was offered, and protesters agreed to withdraw from government buildings. But when demonstrators fulfilled their promise and evacuated occupied buildings, Yanukovich resorted to force in an effort to end the protests altogether.
Indeed, the police began firing into crowds of demonstrators, and have reportedly killed at least 70 and injured hundreds more. Hospitals are overflowing, and many people are avoiding state clinics, because they are afraid of being detained – or worse. The activist Yuri Verbitsky, a mathematical physicist, was abducted by five men in late January from a Kyiv hospital, where he had gone to seek treatment after being injured by a stun grenade at a demonstration. Verbitsky’s battered body was found the next day in a forest outside the city.
Any prospect for resolving the crisis ultimately depends on regaining citizens’ trust in their police and security forces, which are now viewed by many as an occupying force. To reestablish the public’s confidence, there can be no impunity for those who fired bullets or gave the orders to fire. Officials’ excessive use of force, and the government’s reliance on semi-criminal thugs (known as titushki) to attack protesters, must be thoroughly investigated.
But, even as the ongoing violence makes such an investigation all the more urgent, Ukraine’s prosecutor and courts refuse to act. That is why it is crucial that a high-level international mission – comprising civil-society leaders, the Council of Europe, and the European Union – launch a comprehensive inquiry and pressure Ukraine’s government to cooperate.
The EU and the United States have introduced diplomatic sanctions since the latest round of murderous violence began. This should include a travel ban not only on all officials who ordered, oversaw, or implemented the crackdown, but also on Yanukovich’s political enablers: the oligarchs who are now sitting on the sidelines while spiriting large sums of money out of the country.
Sanctions should be lifted only when a credible investigation into the last three months of violence is permitted and a technocratic government is in place (at which point the EU and its member states should offer concrete economic assistance). Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigned last month, ostensibly to make way for such a solution. But Yanukovich has refused to take the next step, or to commit to constitutional reforms, which largely explains the protesters’ growing frustration – and their determination to press ahead in the face of brutal repression.
There is a perception in the West that all of Ukraine’s political forces are weak, divided, and corrupt. And there are growing concerns, often fueled by sensationalist media coverage, that far-right forces are gaining the upper hand within the opposition camp. But, though such forces do exist, the vast majority of demonstrators on the Maidans across the country are ordinary people angry about abuse of power, state violence, official impunity, and corruption.
For the venal and vicious elites who have taken control of Ukraine, the real threat is these demonstrators’ perseverance, not the provocations of a radical fringe. Indeed, while I refuse to believe that Ukraine’s march to civil war is unstoppable, I also know that our citizens will never be silenced again.
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EU membership was never planned in the first place, only total civil war. Anyone in Paris or Berlin believing that this is about the European Spirit well, might as well be standing in Kiev and be gunned down by "unknown" sniper fire.
Local media report that Victor Medvechuk's villa near Kiev was set on fire.
"You can't trust people anymore. You wouldn't believe what I found as I was going trough their underwear drawer" - house keeper to another house keeper.
Same crew from 1905 and 1917,
No, sire, it is a revolution…
Didn't deny it.
Yeah, I know, I just thought you might find that article interesting.
The actual motion of the earth is a spiral when you take into account that the sun is also rotating around the galactic center.
That aside, my definition of revolution, which I believe many share, is that of a permanent change of state. Regression is possible of course, but the trend is in the forward direction.
Some examples:
Discovery of fire.
Agriculture and the domestication of animals.
Basic logic, mathematics and physics
Metalurgy
Monotheism
Nation States
Representaive Government
Industrial Revolution
Network Revolution (currently in progress)
There are others, but I think you get the drift.
edit: I owe my life - most of us do - to the revolution in medicine brought about by Alexander Fleming.
You have a point, but I would call that evolution instead of revolution. Anyways, analogies only illustrate a point, they are not exact models of the subject of discussion.
Well, the term "Industrial Revolution" seems to have stuck. My basic point though, is that no matter what you call it, Progress is the underlying result. Revolutions of the political type may go full circle, but that's just part of the broader trend of Progress. It's hard to see Progress at times since the trend spans generations and often takes a long pause before resuming its upward course.
Ah, man, I thought at first you said Bath House Barry's villa was on fire.
Rats.
Can Ukraine Be Saved?
Newsflash: a country cannot be saved against the will of its own people. See Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia...
But Ukraine wants to be saved. That's why they're protesting. In their minds they are sick and tired of the shit of cronism and backdoor dealing. Ukraine is all that is lively and warm in russian culture. What they hate the most is the taint of russian fatalism and corruption, which is an everlasting relic of the USSR era.
If they believe it frees them of it they will take defaults, bankster rape or civil war any day.
The truth is that only they can save themselves. At least the russian people don't view them as eastern barbarians...
It's time for people to realize: we don't need governments. We don't need banks.
It's time for the people to realize that 50% of the population are below average and are just food for the 50% who are above average.
It's time for the people to realize who the sociopaths are that they've been electing for the last 200+ years.
It's time for the dumbasses not to be dumbasses.
It's time FOOOOORRRR fantasy ISM.
The dumbasses can't help it, there is a very good reason that they called dumbasses....
Now that is one area you no doubt are an expert in ,Flak.
Prolly founder and president of dumbassesrus.org
Give it up buddy, you have no idea how pathetic you come across....
Soros is back, giving out red down arrows again.
<<For the venal and vicious elites who have taken control of Ukraine, the real threat is these demonstrators’ perseverance, not the provocations of a radical fringe. Indeed, while I refuse to believe that Ukraine’s march to civil war is unstoppable, I also know that our citizens will never be silenced again.>>
If the Soviet Union were still in charge, the KGB would find a way to silence the demonstrators... Is the present government really that bad compared to what was -- not that long ago???
Better Question: Can America be saved before it starts something it won't finish?!
Think the friends in the "NATO neighborhood" should be reflecting on that one carefully and soon.
Indeed.
Almost a replay of the Cuban crisis. US deploys nukes on USSR's doorstep(Turkey).
USSR responds by deploying nukes on Cuba.
JFK backs down on Turkish deployment after days of sabre rattling.
Crisis over, then, and only then.
History rhymes.
Ditto.
It's the Khruschev moment for the declining superpower in the West without the "shoe".
The only difference is Khruschev or should I say his handlers knew when to call it a day. Not so certain that Zionist & Friends comprehend the repercussions anymore after losing their minds when they decide to "call it a day" in 2014!
Wow, now that is some serious revisionist history...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PGM-19_Jupiter
The agreement to base Jupiter missiles in Turkey dated to October 1959...
It is never ceases to amaze the capacity for Hedgetards like you to simply make shit up to fit a preferred narrative...
Anyone checking out some of the smokin' hot women in the 4 x 6 Biathlon... I think I just fell in love with Czech 2nd leg skier...
Not only can they ski, they can probably outshoot 99% of the Hedge's chapter of the NRA...
Spolier Alert: Ukraine took the gold...
Good choice. Czech are the best.
Ah, the mob will assault your museums tomorrow, Ukrainian people.
*please behave yourselves when in foreign countries.
The USA or the shadows ruling it want to kill every Ukrainian. Everyone else, the EU and Russia etc wants to kill only a few or rule them. I think this comment will adequately describe the events that will occur.
What would be the goal of eliminating all of the Ukrainians?
My humble attempt at cartooning:
http://goldsteinrepublic.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Faceoff.jpg
Sure.
Step 1: Ban all private jet traffic out of Israel from landing in Ukraine.
Step 2: Have Putin open up a labor camp for all those on the Soros payroll as `protestors'
Step 3: Give notice to all New Bolsheviks on Ukrainian soil that they have 24 hours to get out of the country or face immediate execution.
It is not meant to be saved, the bad guys will have every (and i mean every wish) fulfilled, whether they like it and not.
Will Ukraine move closer to the European Union or instead join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union?
Why can't they stay just neutral ? The EU is a sinking, stinking ship of socialism, and Russia will probably get back to starve Ukraine to death. Either ways, sounds like a real bad deal.
Are there any nation states today where the citizens have a say in their destiny?
the article should be marked as IMHO, cause the half of it a a complete BS
the article should be marked as IMHO, cause the half of it a a complete BS
Shouldn't you say 'taking a page from Obama’s playbook'?
Sure, it's all the fault of the elected government.
What the hell is the American Peoples' interest in Ukraine? Hmmmm?
They should tell the Krauts and Homobama to go to hell, as well as his boss, Soros.
Russian armor will roll before Ukraine is taken over by the Red Shield and their pawns.
Hey, I have noticed not much play on Venezuela-- and they are on fire just as bad as Ukraine.
Maduro kicked out CNN, so that's one good move, even for a Socialist.
Hell, I have to get all my news from overseas sources, the Goebbels Media here just don't hunt.
Duce!
DUCE!
DUCE!
Wow. Bob Costas ripping Russia and Putin for a host of reasons. My favorite, "... Supporting a dispicable regime in Syria ..."
Barry's shill. No mention of Al Ciadah and the atrocities of the Saudi royal family as they slaughter innocents around the world with their suicidal campaign.
Yep, it seems the inconvenient truth about the overwhelming success of the Orange Revolution led by Yushenko and Julia, is swept under the rug. The best thing for Ukraine is to allow the Stepan Bandea village sheeple to go their way.
"But Yanukovich has shown that he does not want a negotiated solution."
Ukraine elected the Yanukovich government in 2010. The elections were judged to be fair by outside observers. But, of course, this does not matter. If you do not like the results of and elections, you protest until you get another one. And if you don't like the results of that one, you protest again (more violently).
And then there is Russia. Ukraine is a national security issue for them as western powers, much more populous and with much bigger economies have designs on Russia's vast natural resources. Their goal is to keep surrounding Russia with hostile states until it does something 'irrational' in its own defense - like take out the missile 'defense' system the US has been installing in Poland. Then, the western powers will have the right to go to war against Russia. Hopefully, for most of us who live in the west, Russia will not use its nukes in defense. Hopefully for the neocons, the Russians will respond with nukes - and wipe out a lot of Democrats who populate major cities.