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Guest Post: China - The Insecure Global Power
Submitted by Kerry Brown via The Diplomat,
We speak of China now as more assertive, confident and sure of its position in the world. And yet wealth and the hard power that has come with it seem in fact to have made China’s behavior more insecure, not less so. Insecurity above all is the more accurate description of China’s diplomatic character at the moment, rather than a newfound confidence.
One can see this most easily not in grand geopolitics but on the granular level of China’s relations with regional powers around its borders. Cambodia stands as a kind of bellwether state. During the late Maoist period, it is now increasingly clear, Cambodia did little without leaders in Beijing knowing. In particular, China’s links with the Khmer Rouge leadership from 1975 on were profound and varied. Pol Pot, according to a superb account in veteran journalist Francis Deron’s Le Procès Des Khmers Rouges, visited Beijing secretly three times: in 1966, in 1970 and then, only two months after seizing power, in June 1975. He had his only ever state visit abroad to Beijing in 1977. Mao Zedong would grant Khieu Samphan, the regime’s Head of State, an audience in 1974 before they had even come to power, and Ieng Sary, who was to become Kampuchea’s Foreign Minister, ran what was in effect a liaison office from Beijing from 1971. Andrew Mertha of Cornell University has just written a further account of the immense amounts of Chinese aid that went to the Khmer Rouge regime. In light of this evidence, it is hard to not see Cambodia during this era as almost akin to a client state. No principles of “non-interference in the affairs of others” stopped China from having a huge say in the way the country was run and how it acted diplomatically.
Four decades later, Cambodia is now a wholly different neighbor. While the main thoroughfare in Phnom Penh is called Mao Zedong Boulevard, the real focus of Cambodians is on business opportunities in Guangdong rather than making political links with stuffy Beijing. And long term Prime Minister Hun Sen plows his country’s own nationalist furrow. Chinese investment and trade are all welcome, but the days of Beijing supremacy are long over. A similar pattern can be seen in Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines and Laos. The era of stark choices between friends and enemies fostered by the Cold War has left a region with blurred allegiances and almost constantly changing loyalties. China can search for leverage in vain in this new context, but it knows than even endless amounts of trade, aid, and financial largesse don’t buy much any longer.
In this context, China’s remaining solid relationships with the DPRK and Pakistan are the exceptions that prove the rule. China as number two in the world is now ironically more isolated than when it was a relatively small player. Having “friends” like the world’s last Stalinist state under its increasingly worrying and capricious young leadership, and Pakistan, riddled with instability and uncertainty, raise the question of why in this sort of neighborhood you would bother having friends at all. But even more concerning is China’s relative impotence in being able to do anything about the DPRK, despite multiple provocations and irritations. The DPRK almost daily shows the limits of Chinese influence over the only country one would expect to see some sort of traction.
In Chinese politics, being number two in the hierarchy was always the worst place to end up. Mao’s various chosen successors all met sticky ends once they were immediately below him in the pecking line. The same could be said for Deng and his first few choices. Number two is a tough place to be. How ironic, therefore, that diplomatically China is finding out that being the world’s second largest economy and almost universally regarded as a sort of heir apparent to the United States’ slipping great power mantle is like being caught between a rock and a hard place. This expectation of prominence and power by outsiders towards China seems to have made the country even more jittery, even more narrowly focused on relatively small strategic issues like its maritime borders, and even more defensive.
The simple fact is that the world is still waiting for a bolder statement from China about what its modern role is. So far no one in the country’s ruling elite has dared to try to articulate this. That, more than anything, is a sign of how profound China’s current feeling of insecurity and uncertainty is, under the bluff exterior of all the nationalist posturing.
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There is a reason the Chinese censor their internet (openly to the sheep). They have a billion plus sheep to keep in line. The herd is restless but the government who takes the spoils of the sheep labor has a pretty good police state set up, and an effective propangada campaign of Chinese exceptionalism that spans generations and that allows the government to do outrageous things to the people in the name of nationalism. Reminds me of another country with fewer people and more fleece.
Reminds you of only 1 other country?
Good thing there is no land bridge connecting China to North America.
Takes some petrol to cross the Pacific.
The DiPOOPlomat strikes again!
China is nervous. Haaah....hmmmm...
China has 5,000 year confidence pulsing through it's crafty veins, forget the fact that this whole thing is a game anyways.
ori
Speaking of shit for brains-
How does the author not understand that in Cambodia- the days of Chinese supremacy stopped when Vietnam invaded Cambodia and took over, and to this day in Cambodia Hun Sen is backed by Ho Chi Minh City, not Beijing or Guangdong.
Perhaps the Diplomat should change its name, since diplomacy doesn't appear to be one of their core competencies.
In newspeak: diplomacy = war.
This "the diplomat" outfit is an obvious front opo with shit disturbing intentions.
Good citizens of Metropolis! Listen carefully. The Chinese will end up killing us all. Bitches.
The Pentagon says China will be Americas greatest adversary by 2017
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBeJUoS-DY4
Perhaps we should quickly buy shitloads of cheap fighter jets and ammunition from them before they decide to kill us with weapons made in all those factories that our fucktard NeoLiberal trade policies and Investment Bankers built for them.
It's a good think they don't possess larger testicles...
Zionists only chance to fulfill their "chosen one/global master" status, was to bring China into the modern world, then figure out later how to take the over with Miley Cyrus "from Disney to crotch grinds", Visa cards and Droids....next phase is the "tribe" trying to take over their banking/media/politicians once Christian America is finished off (but we are not!).
Cambodia is now a wholly different neighbor. While the main thoroughfare in Phnom Penh is called Mao Zedong Boulevard, the real focus of Cambodians is on business opportunities in Guangdong rather than making political links with stuffy Beijing.
OMG, china has lost Cambodia!! Folks, it's over!!
Crazy Chinese have no idea what they're doing, if only kerry from the diplomat could take over the reigns!
i love it when i am distracted and am able to focus my antipathy on another race. i can forget about those jews...
The Chinese fighting a war with machines "made in China". Hell... why wouldn't they be nervous.
When you're ontop, everything looks like a threat.
How many accounts have you had banned posting retarded drivel in every thread and pimping that shitty blog? 3? More?
Agreed, we are all paper tigers now thanks to this bs system.
The ChiComs don't worry about the future...
Because they are aware of one fundamental economic truth...
He who has the most gold...
Rules the world!
....even if it's spray painted tungsten
"“friends” like the world’s last Stalinist state"
That "Stainlinist State"'s leader is making mincemeat of the so-called Superpower.
Rand, the Chinese people look at most anything they want on the internet. They have vpn's and tell me all the time that they read whatever. Granted, sometimes their bandwidth sucks and they are slower than honey in January but I'm sitting in my apt in China right now reading an article about China being insecure.
Interesting... But you are reading an English-language post. Do you think it would be the same with Chinese-language materials published overseas?
Canada?
Interference in the internal affairs of other sovereign states is the main tool of politics for: China? Russia? Or USA?
Terrorism and wars is the main tool of politics for: China? Russia? Or USA?
Yellow man love.
AnAnonymous, please to bestowing us with your non-US 'american' presence and enlightening us on the glories of the most mattering aspects of contemporary Chinese Citizenism! We are all earlobes!
Greece posts first current account surplus since 1948Record spending by tourists has helped Greece post its first current account surplus since official data began.
Figures from the Bank of Greece showed the difference between the money going into and coming out of the country was 1.24bn euros (£1bn) last year.
It was partly driven by a 15% increase in tourism receipts, the country's biggest earner.
The surplus was the first for the recession-hit economy since records began in 1948.
It is equivalent to about 0.7% of total Greek economic output, and is a marked improvement on 2012, when the current account registered a deficit of 4.6bn euros.
The Greek central bank said the change was largely due to a significant fall in imports - by about 4.5% - and a slight rise in exports, which helped reduce the size of the country's trade deficit to 2.4bn euros
Falling wages have helped Greek firms' competitiveness, leading to a rise in exports of non-fuel goods by 2.1% to 14.2bn euros in 2013.
^ So you don't need a devalued currency to get competative. No shit ! Keynsians are soooo soo dumb.
you don't need a devalued currency to get competative
you just lower your standards. and lower them. and lower them again and pretty soon everybody is scratchin shit to be, "competitive" or whatever the(next lowest) standard is.
Hear that sound? An accountant just got his wings.
So the fat cats explored the greek ruins enmass?
More cooked books buds.
the US has about 12 classified weapon systems nobody can compete with.but that dosent give you much advantage if theres no world to rule.which is we are at the point of
the 500 million survivors will have a ruler.
So can you declassify them by disclosing them in order, here on zerohedge? After all, none here would think to write them down, print them out or otherwise copy them. All that would happen is you would be downvoted for false crap. Of course, few people would list 15 different types of false crap, so I for one am looking forward to hearing about these allegedly superior weapons systems.
You only need the one, the Ronald Reagon Star Wars Defence System, the politicians laughed at it at first, until it came to bite them in the ass as they were trying to run away.
Chinese leadership talent is solely how to climb the greasy pole of cadre politics. Never been anywhere or done anything except outgrease the guy in front of him. Like our bankers and ZIRP, if you cannot $$$ making something for 10% of what it costs humans to make and sell it for 25% of what everyone else pays, well, u must be an AIG employee. OK so give them credit.
but international politics? you will quickly see how shallow the pond is over there. even the Africans hate them
And the insecurity referred to in the article is the knowledge by the leadership as a whole that this house of cards will collapse. They're setting up the narrative to distract the irate citizens when their prosperity is wiped out.
It's all very Hayekian: crash the economy through corruption and mismanagement, then look for scapegoats and diversions such as war to deflect accountability away from the kleptocrats.
The article is crap, and the author appears to be either of lmited intelligence, or perhaps a junior propagandist trying to prove his / her worth and earn a seat at the table as a pundit on the TV "news" programs, spouting Western establishment BS endlessly at the public.
First off, we start with "you should dislike China because China supported Pol Pot". Well, Amerika supported Shah Reza Pahlavi, Hosni Mubarak, Bibi Netanyahu, to name just a few, not to mention various death squads globally...Amerika apparently believes that wedding parties are "collateral damage"...our "president" openly declares his unilateral right to murder anyone anywhere in the world, on his say so alone. So please don't try to scare me with China.
"the real focus of Cambodians is on business opportunities in Guangdong rather than making political links with stuffy Beijing.
It would appear the Chinese have learned that capitalism is the goose that lays the golden eggs. China knows that in order to attain the global position she desires she must have a vibrant and growing economy. Expect China to ruthlessly pursue that end. Amerika has armies....all over the globe, and is the only nation which does so. Shall we be shocked and dismayed by China seeking dominance in the Pacific? Does no one recall the Monroe Doctrine? Don't they teach history anymore? I am not saying I am a fan of China, I am saying "let he who is without sin cast the first stone".
Chinese investment and trade are all welcome, but the days of Beijing supremacy are long over. A similar pattern can be seen in Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines and Laos.
This is perhaps the stupidest statement made in the article, and the fact that it appeared in a publication bearing the name "the diplomat" makes it all the more ludicrous. China is openly challenging the US and Japan, and the author wants us to think the small Southeast Asian countries are willing to defy China?
This expectation of prominence and power by outsiders towards China seems to have made the country even more jittery, even more narrowly focused on relatively small strategic issues like its maritime borders, and even more defensive.
Well, perhaps THIS is the stupidest statement contained in the article. "Relatively small strategic issues like its maritime borders"? What effing universe are YOU from? Shoving the US out of the Pacific begins with shoving the US out of the South China Sea, you moron. On a pretext, there is no doubt. But nonetheless.
Unforgivably stupid. Do you get paid for this crap?
China might not have the power to knock over every bodies coffee but they can shit in them. US superior military might not enough to stop china raining poo on the USA if iever come down to that•
Coming 1st would be no ddifferent than coming second - and Russia laughing
International Bankers Put On Notice | 2011
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzyOtl4MDC4
Big Oil & Their Bankers In The Persian Gulf
China will experience internal political dissatisfaction. Her people will begin to destabilize the country. China will then go directly after the Western ruling elite and banking families to quickly resolve internal problems.
This is propaganda I will not fight against fellow people I will fight against the ancient mystery schools who have suppressed information for 1000s of years.
Communism folks. Any questions?
Hmmm. A sense of security comes from within. What a surprise.
With a large enough military, insecurity lessens.
They are buffing up their military with all the Gold and cash the U.S. is sending them at the expense of U.S. Citizens.
http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/02/greek-minister-for-culture-an...
The Green Lantern is gonna sort out them Chicommies once and for all... and if that ain't enough, we'll send in Catman...
"China as number two in the world is now ironically more isolated than when it was a relatively small player."
--> yes, that's the fate of No.2. No.1 always gives No.2 hard times and many No. 3+ are forced to take side, and No.1 always seems the safe bet until it's proven wrong.
WHAT A LOAD OF HORSE SHIT! YOU MAKE SWEEPING ASSUMPTIONS BASED ON ONE LINE FROM A PRIME MINISTER? again - HORSE SHIT! the key to close relationships is through TRADE! The more trade - the closer the ties that bind. [see usa/canada]
This article is crap. I mean how it is structured, how it marshall's evidence, how it gets to its {sort of} conclusion... the first two paragraphs are basically "no shit" kind of things, but why the writer, an expert is apparently surprised by his own 3rd paragraph is baffling.
When you're one of the most bombed countries on earth, struggling to get your shit together after years of war and incursion by Chinese backed Vietnamese forces, of course, you're going to kiss the ring of the most populous and powerful country in the region. What else were they going to do? Decades later, with stability, and expanding trade with other nations, of course they don't have to put all their eggs, diplomatic or commercial, in one basket.
paragraph 4 - WTF? China is more isolated, is it? Really? Based on the Cambodian analysis? This is absurd
Paras 5 distills to what - that China had a long line of Trostskys? Dictatorships tend to be extra jealous of their power. but the second half of this paragraph, apart from arguably simply not being true, doesn't even follow from the sentences before it. And did you.... mothafucka did you just beg the question via tautology right in the middle there? China is insecure as a global power because it's rise as a global power has made it insecure? Says fuckin' what - the title of your article?
And who is insecure, "China" - the government, the nation-state construct, or the second in charge worried he's gonna have to play the role of Kim J. Un's uncle?
The last paragraph - how does this follow? Why do they need to make a statement to actually be secure in their role. Who is waiting? Are you expecting a fuckin' fax? Hasn't China's ruling elite sent a clear message they are going to beef up their military power, anti-ship missiles near Taiwan, and gradually replace or largely replace the dollar in Asia - perhaps via a gold backed yuan? Do you literally expect a "statement of purpose?"
Obama was all Hope and Change but by his actions ye may judge him as currently nearly midway through Bush's 4th term. The United States has declared itself the world's crooked policeman, and dispenser of aribtrary and capricious justice through freedom bombs for the children, and fighting terrorism while having many or most of the world's fuckin' terrorists on its payroll.
Is this "statement" by the American regime one that sounds in security, truly, or is it the insecurity of a collapsing empire trying to maintain its hegemony by killing people by the tens of thousands, robbing people of their savings, and accusing "rogue" nations of committing the very crimes which ihas itself led the world in doing.
I'd say China has done none of this. In Korea and Vietnam it helped defeat the US military, both by direct and indirect action. By letting the US pay not for taking flags but when trying to hold them...
I'd say that China's statement is that it is not going to be the sort of global leader which the US has been, and that, indeed, China is prepared to very much make the US bleed and pay again if it tries to challenge China's power and influence in its own backyard.
I'd just say our own "elite" -most of whom are stupid men and women who were born on third base, attended "top" schools, and are laboring under the misconception they represent the brightest minds amongst us - is too callous and/or obtuse to hear this message.
They may hear it when both China and Russia are more loudly, and in unison, give the same "statement" in response to the question of US global policing - but as always, it will be the ordinary American, from all races and creeds, who will pay for the arrogance and bloodlust and greed of the "elite" who have stolen their government from them.
Nervi belli pecunia infinita
Thank you Johnny Cocknballs.
Typical Western nonsense. China analysis should always begin "internal". Its problems are "internal". It is not a homogeneous society.
When the leadership is a corrupt crony authoritarian structure who just raped all its assets (people, environment, monetary system), it sure will be insecure until it feels confident that its ill gotten "profits" will remain with today's ruling class.
"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/21/2014 22:08 -0500"
Now GMT 14.00, 22/02/14 and no new headline on ZH?
The Ukrainian President Yanukovych has already fled, Timoshenko released...........and no comment from ZH?
ZH gone off air? Normally it would have commented.
NSA edit.
The Chinese don't keep kosher. They'll use the banksters for their own ends and end up owning them.
As soon as some one uses the word "granular" you know they are a complete f*ckwit, and their opinion is less than worthless.
The US propaganda machine has a long history of painting its intended victims as ten feet high, and attributing its own motives to them. Kerry Brown's post is a welcome reminder of how far the claim of Chinese expansionism is from the truth.
What China has built and done these past 30 years, its transformation, is phenomenal. But it is a mass of contradictions, with a complex, rapidly evolving internal dynamic, a people not reconciled to the new forms of their subjugation, a history of revolutions, a huge communist party that no longer serves a communist system and a financial system that's headed pell mell toward an epic collapse.
China's leaders, kleptocrats whose greed and fear will surely override their patriotism, are being confronted by an Empire preparing to exploit the expected breakdown of control. They are responding with bravado, bluster - and by offshoring their personal wealth as fast as they can.
My call: the Empire will succeed in replicating the Libya and Syria models in Ukrane, China, Russia and Iran, and then choke to death trying to swallow their carcasses.
Unless we can stop it.
Who spends nearly 40% of global military expenditure. In the global neighbourhoodo of 7billion the US represents is 5 out of every 100 people and those five people represent spending 40% on all weapons sold globally? Q: Is this insecurity?
Who molests and pats down elderly, infirm and children at airport? Q: Is this insecurity?