This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Non-Existing Home Sales Miss Expectations, Plunge 14% From Highs, Drop To 18 Month Low
Existing home sales plunged 5.1% (considerably worse than the 4.1% drop expected) to its lowest level in 18 months. This extends the string of missed expectations to 5 months as even the ever-credible NAR chief economist said it was not the weather but "we can’t ignore the ongoing headwinds of tight credit, limited inventory, higher prices and higher mortgage interest rates." First-time homebuyers plunged to a mere 26% of the total - the lowest share on record as all-cash (and spec) investors rose to a record 53% share of sales.
Key highlights from the report:
NAR President Steve Brown, co-owner of Irongate, Inc., Realtors® in Dayton, Ohio, said that in addition to disruptive weather, higher flood insurance rates are impacting the market in areas designated as flood zones, which account for roughly 8 to 9 percent of sales. “Thirty percent of transactions in flood zones were cancelled or delayed in January as a result of sharply higher flood insurance rates,” he said. “Since going into effect on October 1, 2013, about 40,000 home sales were either delayed or canceled because of increases and confusion over significantly higher flood insurance rates. The volume could accelerate as the market picks up this spring.”
The median time on market for all homes was 67 days in January, down from 72 days in December and 71 days on market in December 2013. Short sales were on the market for a median of 150 days in January, while foreclosures typically sold in 58 days and non-distressed homes took 66 days. Thirty-one percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.
No first-time homebuying. Anywhere:
First-time buyers accounted for 26 percent of purchases in January, down from 27 percent in December and 30 percent in January 2013. This is the lowest market share for first-time buyers since NAR began monthly measurement in October 2008; normally, they should be closer to 40 percent.
And your bubble full-frontal: 53% of all sales were either to "all cash" or investors "flippers":
All-cash sales comprised 33 percent of transactions in January, up from 32 percent in December and 28 percent in January 2013. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 20 percent of homes in January, compared with 21 percent in December and 19 percent in January 2013. Seven out of 10 investors paid cash in January.
Goodbye housing recovery, snow or no snow.
»
- 11109 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Bullish Mo Fos.
It's all weather related...
BTFATHS(tupid) what is there not to understand?
silent spring may be nigh
Silent indeed. In the market where I am trying to buy, there is little for sale and prices are up 50% from the bottom.
"Limited inventory"...that's a joke, right?
Pull up Zillow for ANY area...dozens if not hundreds of hosues for sale.
You have to ask why are the prices not reflecting reality? I've come to the conclusion that sellers just have no idea that their world has changed and are relying upon the idiot savant who relies upon the realtor to make an offer. The realtor is in an interesting position having to compete with the internet which should make the realtor's suggested offering price lower due to the buyer being aware of competitive pricing--which would eat into their commission.
No worries. The 2012 flood insurance legislation is putting a big dent in sales. The CONgress critters are busy repairing the bill (and the subsidy to build in unbuildable areas) so that we can get on with business as usual. Expect the bill to pass in 2 weeks and be law in a month. At this time, the pend up demand will be 'marketable' again as the mortage insurance will be subsizided......Forward USSA!
yeah, lots of inventory especially in vacation properties but look at the asking prices. omg, lol
That's right....Obchelli.....the bad news is NOW behind us. In fact....WAS behind us as this is a trailing indicator. This is BULLISH !!! BUY BUY BUY !!!!
I have non-existent cash to put down, Do you think I could buy one of those non-existing houses with it?
My thoughts...exactly.
remember when appraisals were based on main floor sq ft now it includes the whole house sq ft.....gotta keep the higher tax farce alive! no mystery why real estate ins't included in money laundering laws.
No kidding. I keep an eye on the transactions of my first house, 1478 sq ft when I purchased it. Bought for $178k in 2003, sold it for $210k in 2007, and it sold in foreclosure in 2010 for $135K. Funny thing is, the square footage is now listed at 2,045. Taxes, of course, went up with each transaction. Fucking thieves with an ever changing ruler for measurement of anything and everything they decree.
'limited inventory'; you mean the glut being withheld from the market to create the illusion of tight supply to prop up prices? Until those bad debts are liquidated and those homes sold on a fire sale basis, forget it.
yeah no shit...limited inventory...hysterical.
Frustrating, not hysterical. It's true in any desirable market.
Keep in mind that some people spent the last five years listening to Cramer instead of Tyler, and now they are sitting on huge stock profits, and switching those into real estate, so cash demand is much bigger than you realize. I am lookking at markets where prices are up 50% from the bottom, and still there is much less for sale than last summer. We all like to cluck about 20-somethings living in their parents' basement, but we forget about Chinese 20-somethings splitting time between dad's extra house in Seattle and dad's investment condo in Arizona.
No pressure to sell them.
With the FedRes still buying up toxic RMBS. there won't be until later this year.
If they don't resume QE, the floodgates will open.Still takes money to keep[ them off
the market.
how are they going to artificially inflate prices to unaffordable levels if they don't create an artificial shortage?
And those homes being withheld are going to need to be demolished, due to the extreme cold and frozen/busted pipes. I saw one house that had ice flows that were as beautiful as Niagara Falls! Would not buy a vacant foreclosed home in those areas that were hit hard with the sub-zero temps ever!
Limited inventory? WTF? There are for sale signs up everywhere, and the banks are holding a shit load on their books. When spring hits it will be even worse.
Doc around my area there is not as much for sale as you would imagine. But there are a shit ton of homes just sitiing there vacant forever. It's funny too because I happen to know a few people that were looking to buy. They have to pay up for what's out there. They are clueless, so they don't see all the homes that they could be getting at a bargain of there was a real market. Can't let that happen.
I don't even know what to root for anymore. I want out of here in the next few years so I need the bernakyellen to keep up this fraud but it looks like we are running very low on first time suckers to bail me out.
The inventory of empty yet to be foreclosed houses is a hidden gem the banks don't want anyone to know about.
I guess one man's ransacked, ramshackle, cracked-head infested meth lab/animal shelter/mold growing colony is another man's castle?
I've mentioned before that my wife manages one of the local real estate offices around here. According to her they are seeing huge volumes, but it is mainly low value "investment" properties. The agents are busting their asses, but the commission levels are low. There are only a handful of connected agents who are really moving the big ticket homes.
On my block, twenty homes, mine was the only one for sale but there are six vacant homes not listed for sale. I sold it for a $10k loss and the all cash buyer still made me fix $1200 worth of bullshit. Like replacing a piece of floor trim because there was a scratch in it. The home is 90 years old.
Instead of going through this crap most people are just leaving their homes and telling the bank to eat it. Before I left I toom a drive around the neighborhood. I only saw two other homes for sale but every street has vacant homes. In a three street vacinity of my house there are at least thirty unoccupied homes. The silent death of a middle class town.
Having looked for houses each of the past three years, I can tell you there is a substantial wait in order to get funding from a bank. Almost like they want to dole them out piecemeal.
Maybe that's why cash is king in these markets, although I know a couple who did pay cash and still waited 3 months to close.
It's not what we think it is, the process has become laborious and patience draining.
Yup. On the island proper, we have a very low turnover of property. In the area surrounding us, homes are for sale everywhere. You can't go down a block without seeing real estate signs trying to flog a home. I have a friend whose home is sandwiched between four homes being sold and she's dreading the new influx of neighbors on the one hand, and dreading watching one or more of the houses sitting vacant for a long time and deteriorating.
usually i would say that yun is full of beans with that limited inventory remark but the real estate section in the paper is getting really thin. banks not foreclosing, hedge funds and foreigners buying up everything in sight, there might actually be some truth in that. egad, did yun just tell the truth? the world must indeed be ending.
lol again more making statements without providing locations to allow anyone to verify validity and reliability and facts. let me guess your ether a realtor or a owner who bought in to the hype
i don't know what i wrote up there to give you that impression. i am the most skeptical and tight fisted person on this whole board.
But I thought more people were getting divorced because things are improving.
Where are they moving to?
Hrmm....the young saddled with crushing student loan debt they can never discharge....now the price of..everything...is going to go up to pay for Obammycare...
I see no problems here! Keep printing, Janet!
" Keep printing, Janet!"
Until the US dollar collapses
I'd buy a home, but they're just going to get cheaper [when interest rates go up], so why bother? Besides, that money I'd buy a home with is better utilized gambling in the Fed-elevated stock market.
Its a shame they rammed Obamacare thru... I bet we'd be in a much better economic position had they just kept their communist agenda to themselves.
'higher mortgage interest rates'; more propaganda. Just imagine if there were legit lending standards like say 30-40 years ago. It's unbelievable how now 'affordable' means being able to make the monthly payment, nevermind that on a present value basis these mortgages aren't being amortized. TANSTAAFL, people. Make a legit down payment and pay rates that are market-based and at least the home is valued properly, whereas with ZIRP there isn't the decay as the price stays inflated so sure you get a cheaper rate (temporarily, in the case of ARM) but you're paying that cheaper rate on something worth a lot more, as opposed to a reasonable rate but an actually legitly valued house.
30-40 years ago people were getting raises AND rates were dropping steadily. Now neither of those conditions exist among the rabble.
40 years ago a man with a college degree could go out and earn a good living for his wife and kids. Now everybody and the dog has to get a job just to eek out an existance.
yes 40 years ago the guy didn't work about 1/2 the year to pay his total tax burden either.
exactly; so patience at these higher rates as reality catches up(down) to prices. unless rate - fixed - move towards 3 vs 4, time is your friend. when you see first time buyers waning you know the chain of sales are broken again. i just wish a home was a home again, not an investment. the bastards:)
a motorhome is starting to become attractive- never thought i would say that!
Don't know if this'll help at all, but here's a tiny bit more Dallas area info:
Talked with a gal pal who writes mortgages in Grand Prairie for a credit union. She says sellers are still getting full price offers and then some on nearly all deals she sees. Business is booming, she can hardly keep up. She sees higher interest rates on the loans, but it hasn't stopped the house buying tsunami yet.
Select markets are doing great. Texas is seeing massive interest from Chinese buyers. Half of Houston is owned by the Chinese. Texas has a good climate for buying homes you'll never live in.
You let a home sit for five years in NE Ohio and you'll need to demolish it.
Texas never had the real estate boom except for austin and a few other college/vacation towns. prices in Texas are still affordable because they have propety taxes instead of income taxes.
Credit is not tight, ask the Fed they have a nice facility to borrow from. No lie!
for yun "credit being tight" means that no-down no-doc stated income neg am sub prime mortgages aren't as plentiful as they were during the "good times". it's all relative.
But they're coming back; my mortgage facebook friends are looking for apprentices again.... wtfc.
well that's a good sign [/sarc]
Absolutely right Buzz, and I would bet you any money that we will see the return of plentiful subprime mortgages.
Time to foam the runways !!!
$25,000 @ 12%
$100,000 @ 4%
At least those homes are pay all cash so there shouldn't be any worry about missing mortgage payments.
Dayton has a sh*tload of empty properties, foreclosed properties, properties that burst into flame as the remaining neighbors get tired of them falling apart - no matter how bad he says it is, he's putting a thick layer of lipstick on that pig.
I'm still trying to figure out how to leverage my 0% credit card w/ a 1.5% cash back to buy gold bullion; looks like they wisened up and now require minimum payments :( dam credit card companies!
Adding fuel to the fire... the company I buy gold from has a $2500 limit on credit cards now (it wasn't like that 6 years ago...). :(
They really don't like people buying real money and then skipping out on the tab through bankruptcy.
Here here, Temporalist. I would fuck a TBTF bank 10,000 times before I would fuck a coin shop out of their money. Many coin dealers have interests sympathetic with mine and are just trying to get along. TBTF banks are malignancies, licensed brigands. Keep the sights where they belong, men.
Try Gainesville Coins. They have a higher premium over spot for credit card purchases, but no minimums, and their prices are better than most. Plus, you can order on-line and then take delivery in person, if you so desire.
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/
I have been quite pleased with their prices and service. Most purchases I have made from them have been on 0% credit cards. I don't mind the credit card minimum payments, but why should I pay interest when the banks borrow at 0%?
Agreed on Gainesville.
They have been fine with me, both cc and bank direct.
You never own a home nowadays in many areas. You just lease it for several thousands/yr from your local government in the form of ever-increasing property taxes.
Bullish then, i suppose.
Palmdale looks like a nice place. It's in my price range.
Empty houses everywhere in upstate NY (Rochester suburbs). In a month, I will be celebrating the anniversary of four years in foreclosure on the house that my father left me.
Lately, the bank offered $9K, cash for keys and I would not oppose foreclosure action nor pursue my fraud suit against them. I will be passing on their offer, probably. Put their offer in front of two lawyers and an accountant. The verdict is expected to be unanimous: Stay put until they push the foreclosure action forward, then fight. The accountant told me privately that, according to the bank's figures, I have roughly $30K in equity (remember, the bank's own company did the appraisal, too), so I should hold out for at least that amount.
In July, it will be five years since my dad passed on and the mortgage payments stopped. Originally, I thought I'd be here six months, then that turned into a year, two, three, etc. Shooting for six, long term, free house via my lawsuit.
The bank's lawyer is probably stunned that I put the offer in front of two lawyers, because I have been dealing with them myself, and I'm no lawyer. Having friends in the legal profession is nice.
But, seriously, one, two or three vacant homes on just about every street in the close-by suburbs. The city - fageddaboudit - vacant homes everywhere, sometimes row of them. 43,000 homes in the city of Rochester have back taxes unpaid for three or more years. That's a lot. American Tax Funding is holding the tax liens, purchased at 50-60% discount, but they obviously don't want these properties. They'll swoop in on sales, supposedly and try to get the full amount of taxes owed, plus 18% interest. Good luck with that. Meantime, plenty of slumlords making out well, renting and not paying taxes. Who said there was no free lunch in America?
Keep an eye on Rochester, NY. We have a new mayor - Lovely Warren (I kid you not) - who's already been embroiled in one scandal. Just wait until ATF goes belly up, they'll take Roc city down with it. There aren't enough legitimate properties to cover the costs of government. Rochester will be Detroit-ified.
So you're an undercover member of the FSA.
most young adults are living w parents saddled w enormous student loans working part time jobs w no future. that's the reason
Do the banks pay the taxes on the properties that are foreclosed on and held off the market?
Nope. Nearly all of the homes have actually been bought by the government. That is what you the eventual buyer of one of the wonderfull government owned homes is for. Five to ten years of back taxes is your responsibility.
Every week half of the real estate transfers are from a bank to HUD or Fannie. The Fed QE money goes to the banks to buy the properties and the bank gets more free money to speculate with.
so this killed gold and the miners today? why?
Kinda hard to buy a $200k house when you only make $12.50 per hour at Home Depot or $10.35 making sandwiches at Subway, unless you get a subprime loan. But don't worry, BoA will come to the rescue.
Yeah but Obamacare Joblock sets these young free to write a ebook, get a blog with Home Depot/NSA career jobs.
So they have that going for them, which is nice.
Blackstone flips houses, Sequoia flips start-ups, HSBC flips money - it's a flippin' economy, stupid!
If the Gub'ment would let go of it's inventory of foreclosed property (rented out by freddie and fannie), and the banks would complete foreclosures on properties that they have not been paid on in years and years, the bottom would be a long, long, long way down.
How do you spell: "bubble-ishis"
They can't hold this $hit up forever...just ask Kyle Bass
Hey Colorado guy above me...so you like my avatar?
The middle class cannot afford a home at current prices, with Obamacare in effect, student loan debt and with ever increasing property taxes adding to the burden. Even in the bust yeats starting in 2008, my real estate taxes never went down.