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Just 12 WTF Charts

Tyler Durden's picture


Sometimes you just have to sit back, look at some charts, and say WTF...

Carry Trade


2. SPX vs US Treasuries

3. SPX vs US Term Structure

4. SPX vs Fwd EBITDA Expectations (bottom-up)

5. SPX vs US Macro (top-down)

6. SPX vs Jobless Claims (so long held as supportive of the recovery)

7. SPX vs Lumber (the housing pillar is cracking)

Risk Assets
8. SPX vs High Yield Credit

9. SPX vs China's Shanghai Composite Equity Index

10. SPX vs Japan's Nikkei 225 Equity Index

11. SPX vs Emerging Market Bonds

12. SPX vs Emerging Market FX


Of course, there are those who see these charts and through no self-referential cognitive-dissonance of their own (well in fact entirely for that status quo engendering reason) will proclaim... that proves it - US is cleanest dirty shirt and money is flooding back to 'safety' - however - that is entirely disingenuous...

The ironists among market punters will even attempt to construe all this as a reason to buy more developed world stocks on the premise that the money flooding out of such places as Thailand, the Ukraine, Turkey, and Argentina will be parked in the S&P and the DAX (perhaps overlooking the fact that the purchase price of these now-unwanted positions was most likely borrowed, meaning that their liquidation will also extinguish the associated credit, not re-allocate it).


The Goldilocks lovers will also tend to assume that any such disruption will serve to delay the onset of genuine tightening and may even induce further ill-advised stimulus measures on the part of the major central banks. Certainly Madame Christine Defarge – that tax-sheltered tricoteuse who knits beside the guillotine set up for the hated bourgeoisie – has already begun to militate for such a response.


For their part, the biddable are already trying to drown out the noise of the Cacerolazo by making the fatuous argument that the EMs account for such a piffling portion of world GDP that their fate should be a matter of complete indifference to the rest of us. Needless to say this is a touch disingenuous at best. Their share of end consumption-biased GDP may be lower, but they account for an equivalent fraction, if not a small majority, of global industrial production – and they have been responsible for an even bigger proportion of its growth this past decade. Ditto for trade and ditto for resource use.

13. SPX vs The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet - The Truth


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Sat, 02/22/2014 - 14:53 | 4465635 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I love ZH porn charts in the morning.  ;-)

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 14:54 | 4465642 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:00 | 4465664 flacon
flacon's picture

So buy SPY calls then? 

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:05 | 4465683 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

SPY be killin', can't fight city hall!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:06 | 4465689 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

WTF Charts, bitchez!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:10 | 4465701 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Bonus Chart No. 13 was the killer.  But, I would like to see Bonus Chart No. 14: S&P 500 vs. gold.  WTF?!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:17 | 4465714 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

The US national debt and gold used to have a very nice chart/graph correlation.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:25 | 4465760 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"The US national debt and gold used to have a very nice chart/graph correlation."

New paradigm!!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:50 | 4465828 max2205
max2205's picture

S&P = Fed....nothing else

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:10 | 4465829 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture the moon for USDJPY, 10y yield, UST 10s-5s, forward EBITDA, US macro, jobless claims (ruh-roh), lumber, HY credit, SHCOMP, Nikkei 225, EM bonds, and EM FX.

Buy buy buy.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:56 | 4466380 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Looks like everything else needs to start catching up the SPX......#fraud?...

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 00:41 | 4467160 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Ya'll should have bought stocks five years ago and sold them in December.

Just sayin'.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 03:52 | 4467344 old naughty
old naughty's picture

and the winner?



Too many falling, no one heard...

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 05:50 | 4467422 The Dunce
The Dunce's picture

The final analysis?  We're all screwed.  You bitches.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 08:24 | 4467510 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Um, where on those charts are all those Hindenburg Omens?

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 18:35 | 4468858 janus
janus's picture

in the gaps

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 09:23 | 4467549 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Hey Vineyard, I mean Dunce, how many sock puppet names are you using to pimp your navel gazing blog anyway? Here's a newsflash, I checked it out - I won't be back.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 09:48 | 4467573 new game
new game's picture

now you are educated. move on to a higher plane of understanding-thanks ZH...

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 18:34 | 4468853 janus
janus's picture

el dunce-o,

if that's your blog, i want to congratulate you...i really enjoyed what i read.

i'd also like to commend you on your nine down-votes; these philistines like their social commentary in sit-coms and heavy-laden with gobs & gobs of greasy sentimentality.  put a little more bob sagget into your stuff, and then the up-votes will come gushing forth like so many guffaws on a laugh track.

sorry to fuck up your perfect record, but i'm up-voting...and keep up with the blog; i think i'm going to bookmark it.

fuck em,


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:34 | 4466155 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture



Bonus chart: the only chart that matters. 

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:14 | 4466262 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yup - can't believe that anyone can deny that clear fact.

Propagandists love to ignore reality and grasp at straws.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 13:56 | 4466776 scrappy
scrappy's picture


New territory?


Yes (for this cycle) and no.

The human race has been here before, but never at this scale.

Big problems everywhere.

It will take the effort of all of our generations to survive this.

This read explains the concept.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:44 | 4465930 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture




"The US national debt and gold used to have a very nice chart/graph correlation."

Reminds me of an old song....

Yesterday's Gone 


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 21:26 | 4466746 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

Thanks for the song...listening to it was a journey back into an innocent time.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 14:57 | 4465650 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

Hold onto your butts.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:06 | 4465691 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Tells me which ever way it goes the 'buyers' want equity.

It does look insane, however.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:21 | 4466286 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

looks insane? It IS insane.

Facebook buys "whatsupdoc?" for 25 billion?
Ali Babba Bunny alright.

The "scariest chart" actually was not presented...namely the US dollar versus the S&P. Contrary to popular opinion:
a: the dollar has soared in value and
b: i can't think of a single instance where this is bullish for stocks.

SOME equities...but equities in general?
Part of the "beauty" of buying in 2008 was that the dollar had collapsed (once QE was announced.)

Part of the oddity now is that the dollar has soared.
Great if you're a foreign investor or want to flood the US market with cheap imports (including gold apparently) but not so good when trying to bid every asset on earth up to the moon.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:07 | 4465695 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Or grab your ankles?

"Bend over America, you're getting driven to Cleveland"

(Title of BoP's latest book)

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:33 | 4465783 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No.. I'm grabbing some nice young babe's butt instead!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:55 | 4465840 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Hold onto your butts."

Not When I'm looking at Porn thank you very much!

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 02:32 | 4467288 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

So you work for the SEC huh?

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 09:25 | 4467552 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Hold onto your butts.

So that explains those photos...

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:15 | 4465729 RSloane
RSloane's picture

LMAO!! Those charts are some of the best ecoporn I've seen on ZH so far this year. "Divorced from reality" takes on a whole new different meaning.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:50 | 4466011 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

So according to that last chart the FED is the market?  lol



Sun, 02/23/2014 - 01:32 | 4467224 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

no, col

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 20:14 | 4466545 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

let me guess - Yellen's stubby little claws keep pressing the "buy ES" button?

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 20:33 | 4466603 aldousd
aldousd's picture

Just 'decoupling from reality' not quite divorced, since they do mimic the inflection still (most of them.)

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 21:03 | 4466688 Being Free
Being Free's picture

Indeed RS, and the punchline (bonus) was set up so well.  Pure dopamine rush!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:23 | 4465739 Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

Why do these charts only go back to various points in 2013 in most cases, with one going back to 2012 and starting in 2014, given how the crash/bailouts/QE/ZIRP started in 2008/2009?

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:30 | 4465776 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"Dramatic license"

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 06:57 | 4467457 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Probably just didn't want to create a panic.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 09:30 | 4467558 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

In context, I would say it shows that the Fed was getting away with it for awhile. Now the tide is going out.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 09:30 | 4467557 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:00 | 4465856 Dubaibanker
Dubaibanker's picture

Although I understand what the charts are supposed to mean, but I dont believe they are entirely accurate, especially when displayed on a very short run of 3-6 months.

We can see here that S&P is no where close to the entire adjusted monetary base including the Fed balance sheet although it is grinding higher lately.,SP500,

Second point, with the QE taper and expected to end by end 2014 or latest early 2015, will the S&P get worse or remain same, is yet to be seen though is it is betting on the higher side.

It is quite likely that with the number of bonds issued (cash on balance sheets), lack of capex spending/international expansion, massive lay offs leading to savings on expenses, major losses already booked, higher exports, No. FDI in the world, revival of oil/gas/car exports, protectionism of US corporates, cheaper $ compared to EUR/GBP and more innovation/productivity over the past 5 years are indeed providing very high stability to all balance sheets which is leading to S&P grinding higher, IMHO.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 02:28 | 4467285 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

Sarc off? Then Farc off...

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 02:54 | 4467299 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

the jobless claims one stuck out to me - when you have, I forget, but its well over a million people who ran out of unemployment, which Congress didn't extend [and even if you think that's great, it's pretty fucked up that they also slashed veterans benefits while sending new cheap weapons and hundreds of millions to that shitty little country on the eastern med - I'd rather keep it in country and help out someone than that] the claims don't tell you much.


I'm not sure what you think the monetary base chart means as against Tyler's charts - which tracks against the fed's balance sheet...not m //  How much of the QE money is in European banks, by the way?


I'm not sure about your final para, and while s+P could go higher in the short term, and for that matter we could see deflation in the short term, possibly, I can't see that in the mid term {I mean say a year out} but admit I'm just going by gut feel.

 . well sorta...

The monetary base in your chart shows the nearly straight up trend starting 2010.  A lot of that is on foreign shores, of course, but recall that this also represents a growth in DEBT in the system.


The trouble is how compound interest works.  The fundamentals are deteriorating, and this can not be sustained.  But sure, the doom porn has begun to grow tedious - still it's hard to know what the tipping point will be anyway, but especially when everything is so manipulated and rigged.


Tough to see, all else aside, why money would flow into either equities or bonds when Yellen and Fischer start slowing the flow, which is the de facto monetization of the US debt, of course... 

why buy at bubble prices /  why buy with so much risk coming due? 

I'm thinking real assets, realty, pms, and in my own view certain commodities and equities become magnetic. 


punchline:  gold and silver {physical}, bitches.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 05:26 | 4467391 Dubaibanker
Dubaibanker's picture

All I am saying that in today's dog eat dog world...every corporation is on their own. And, because their balance sheets are stronger than they were 5-6 years, they really do not have much of a downside. Imagine how many banks or shipping companies or oil companies or hotels or other medium sector companies have shut down or merged or been sold in the last few years.

If you think that every seller has a buyer, then the money supply must remain the same. When one seller books a loss, he/she leaves the capitalist system but someone else replaces him/her and life goes on...

Aside from the social impact due to job losses and changes required in skill sets, impact of bankruptcies etc, US has received on an average USD 150bn-USD 200bn per annum in FDI from abroad since 2006 which has entered the US onshore financial system. This does not include all the money that the US Govt is bringing back from Switzerland and hurting the foreign banks while helping the US banks and saving thousands of job losses (protectionism?). This number also is in billions if not a trillion or higher and goes to support the US banking system.

Over the past decade alone, US has received more than USD 2 trillion in the past 8-9 years. In 2008 it exceeded USD 300bn and in 2012, it was close to USD 150bn. This money helps US stabilize its economy. For every seller, there has to be a buyer. This growth in the past decade of FDI entering US is higher than the previous decade when it remained an average below USD 100bn pa.

With more money supply, usually there is inflation, but since there were large holes to be filled due to massive losses in balance sheets, the market remained turbulent. Since the past 3-4 years, despite the volatility, markets including S&P are grinding higher.

It appears that downside is limited - due to lower costs, higher Govt support, more money entering the system, more cash on balance sheets etc. Upside may also be limited but the numbers have shown since the collpase of Lehman in Sep 2008, that markets will remain skewed towards a higher valuation. The biggest impact this year in 2014 remains of the QE taper, but please, do not underestimate the 'smartness' of ANY Govt. They must have some plans to navigate the markets when the QE ends and not allow an entire collapse! They know about the high debt and there are not many options. But that debt belongs to the public through the Govt, who knows what they will do for the public debt. As far as the private debt of corporations is concerned, I do not believe that Apple, Microsoft or Goldman or Citibank can default, not only because they make paper profits but they themsleves have a lot to lose, should they default, than otherwise. All such giant corporations, anyways, go into oblivion, despite their own best efforts of survival, think of Sony, Panasonic, Toshiba, Sharp, top Japanese, Cypriot or Spanish and Irish banks, BB, Merrill, Bear Stearns, Ericsson, Motorola, Enron, Arthur Andersen, AOL, Netscape, OGX etc. The open markets system does allow for a organised demise of a corporation as well as an organised rise of a corporation. 


Sun, 02/23/2014 - 07:24 | 4467467 EuropeanBankster
EuropeanBankster's picture

"If you think that every seller has a buyer, then the money supply must remain the same. When one seller books a loss, he/she leaves the capitalist system but someone else replaces him/her and life goes on..."

I think it's incorrect. An equity sell off results in destruction of value. A daily turnover of about 3 % of market cap with a drop of say 5 % in share price.. 3 % of the shareholders manages to cash in @ vwap but the 97 % loses 5 % of their equity value. Applying to the entire equity market results in a reduction in the monetary base.. exactly like the housing market after 2007. Remember the leverage in the equity market is somewhat similar to the housing market although not to the same extent . The expansion of FED's balance sheet frees capital to the financial institutions who buys corp. bonds and equity. So A Decline in asset value results in a decline in the monetary base? Or am I wrong?

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 10:18 | 4467604 css1971
css1971's picture

Nope. It results in a reduction in price. The price is what you pay for something, value is what you get. The value remains the same... I.E You still have N shares in stock XYZ.

And you are thinking about the wrong side of the transaction if you want to understand the monetary side... Most of the money invested in the markets (~97%) is borrowed into existence. I.e. a banker created credit, loaned it out and the recipient bought stocks or bonds or property.

So, when that credit money is repaid, it vanishes. Say when the margin calls are flying thick and fast, you have to dump the stocks to pay back the loan, which causes the money to disappear.

It isn't when the stock trades at a discount to someone that the level of money changes. It's when the loans are repaid that the level of money changes.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 08:11 | 4467504 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

Aren't you sort of discounting the money leaving the couintry, in the form of massive and generally growing trade deficits?  And the deficit spending, while reducd in the past year, has still doubled the debt since Obama got in.  So... I just think that completely offsets what you're premising this stuff on - unless I'm missing something  {always possible ;o}

job participation, debt, unfunded liabilities, over-leveraging...  I don't think every sellr has a buyer or vice versa, partic. in any system where there is so much misallocation in large part due to fedgov meddling, as well as the distortion by market makers.


But regardless - framing this a little bit differently, I think government and banksterism has greatly increased the amount of entroy in the system.  I think metrics are less reliable than they were in even 2007.  I'm willing to be hedge funds are [I've mentioned this before] misreporting AWW by conflating maturity with interest rate resets.

The same fuckery, in a nutshell, that brought about the crisis, was put on steroids by the purported fixes - the easy money and printing and arguably TARP  {I've come around in the detroit bailout mosrly}  - basically we're in the eye of a much bigger storm, and things have been made worse.

Basically, the underlying wasn't changed, we just threw money at it while mostly failing to prevent over-leveraging or reinflation of bubbles...  but now its harder to know what's really going on, so, I mean if you can't predict things, why gamble on stocks, why not have a store of value [e.g. gold] for what you have?  The monetary system itself is at risk. 


I think... I dont totally disagree..  I'm just far more pessimistic, but I'm a long term thinke.  things could chug along for years, so maybe buying apple [e.g.] is wise because that stock is likely to jump up with the next iphone release...  but every thing is more opaque, there's more entropy in the system, more risk.. . at some point there will have to be a big move away from cash equivalents



Sun, 02/23/2014 - 08:36 | 4467518 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

"Second point, with the QE taper and expected to end by end 2014 or latest early 2015, will the S&P get worse or remain same, is yet to be seen though is it is betting on the higher side".

Why does anyone believe QE will end, because believing that QE will end is believing what the Fed says. Why does anyone believe what the Fed says. The cunts won't allow an audit - exactly how is beyond me, but they won't. They have the ability to create money and then don't allow anyone to check what they are doing. What the fuck does anyone think is going to happen. They run the whole taper thing on schedule but keep printing. Why wouldn't they, they are cynical mother fuckers that this world needs to be rid of.

Someone tell me one reason why this won't occur.


Sun, 02/23/2014 - 09:21 | 4467547 MilwaukeeMark
MilwaukeeMark's picture

Comment ... On you above three posters ... Best series of back and forth I have read in months on ZH. That's what I come here for!!!!

Sometimes in an attempt by others to post clever comebacks, the postings on ZH devolve into the inane. I come to ZH (before any other site) each morning, to make sense out of the utter nonsense in the world.

Please ... Keep it up.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:36 | 4466320 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I have a sister that has a compulsion to sniff drapes; if thats of any consolation

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 00:01 | 4467090 DYS
DYS's picture

Oooooh, I bet that bitch is a Fahhhreaque!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 19:42 | 4466466 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

All perfectly sensible

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 22:22 | 4466887 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

This is the proof validating the story that the Tyler(s) broke over the minutes from the Fed during the crisis where Ben and the boys and Janet Yellen are discussing the Japanese deflation nightmare that was staring then in the face.

This is the new Bubble now.  Pump STAWKS !!!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 23:03 | 4466991 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

LOL!! fucker, you beat me to it cause i was thinking the exact same thing!!!

BTW i couldn't spot the taper on the bonus chart..WTF?

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 14:54 | 4465636 HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

The DUAL MANDATE ["S" & "P"]...

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 00:34 | 4467147 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

The propaganda runs deep, young padawan.

Just like there was no spoon, there is no dual mandate.

There is a singular mandate...  that was broken for about 30 years and obfuscated by the "dual mandate" deception.

"...shall maintain long run growth of monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production..." is a SINGULAR MANDATE!

Weapons of Mass Debt

The "dual mandate" is a Big Lie exemplar. 

We have to up our game so we aren't as easy to dupe, people.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 01:33 | 4467227 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

more poor than standard

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 14:55 | 4465644 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Printing is coming.  Trillions and trillions on it's way.  Gold to 5k, 10k, and beyond.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 14:59 | 4465657 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> Gold to 5k, 10k, and beyond.

Is that you Willie?



Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:11 | 4465709 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gold to $55,000 or maybe more (no, I am not FOFOA, I am not that smart).

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:30 | 4465777 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Time your boating accidents wisely. Its been confiscated before, and it will be again.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:53 | 4465834 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That is good advice.  But, I do not think (a guess...) that they will confiscate gold in the future.  

After all, gold is not money to our PTB.

As per FOFOA (I am, obviously, a big fan), he lays out the fact that gold will be necessary for investment capital after the reset.


To be sure, hiding your gold very well is excellent advice.  And, next time I go our on the water, I will bring my GPS.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:08 | 4465879 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Gold will NOT be confiscated.

People only TAKE from the govt, not give.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:01 | 4466041 jcaz
jcaz's picture

The Govt only takes from the people....

There, fixed that for ya....

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 07:06 | 4467460 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Is that you Willie?


North side, east side
Little Willie, Willie wears the crown, he's the king around town
Dancing, glancing
Willie drives them silly with his star shoe shimmy shuffle down
Way past one, and feeling alright
'Cause with little Willie round they can last all night

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:09 | 4465880 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:42 | 4465984 The Wisp
The Wisp's picture

How about i Hide it, Under my dead body with a Live grenade, pin pulled....

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 05:33 | 4467401 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

If everything else fails - the old "ring-trick" will work. (There regularly is a ring on the pin) ;-)   (Leon the professional: ring trick)

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 09:52 | 4467582 Woodhippie
Woodhippie's picture

Not to be too picky but the gold wasn't "confiscated".  It was mandatory to turn it in and then they were compensated.  Confiscation denotes taken without compensation.  Don't get me wrong, I agree with your comment to time accordingly.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 14:56 | 4465649 g speed
g speed's picture

Who could have possibly known ??  /sarc

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 14:58 | 4465652 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

And that's only the bit of the Fed's balance sheet you can see.

Hint - "Foreign buyers" - Hint...

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 14:59 | 4465659 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the price is wrong bitchez.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:01 | 4465666 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Shit! How do you untaper the taper which started because things were so damn bright? Iknow, we'll untaper the taper because of a small hiccup (insert g.w."climate change", polar vortex, fucking Bush again, movie that makes muslims kill diplomats, fucking Fox again, lack of gun control, restless leg syndrome, or some bonehead at the IRS. Now we can taper the taper taper as soon as this dark cloud in the sky also known as the ECONOMY passes by.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:01 | 4465668 the question
the question's picture

In the bonus chart should the scale for the Fed balance be trillions, not M?

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:01 | 4465669 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

because this time it's different.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 01:37 | 4467231 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's only history and math

what could that book possibly teach us 

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:02 | 4465670 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

The return of Cash on the Sidelines?

The return of the Retail Investor?

Looks like like Birinyi's ruler was correct after all!!!! Sarc off.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:24 | 4466288 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Page 1 WSJ 'Individual Investors Pile Into Market as Stocks Rise'

The end is near.

(according to 'sigh' fundamentals)

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:04 | 4465679 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Should create a chart that compares the S&P, Fed reserve balance sheet to total personal savings for added effect.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:05 | 4465684 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Awesome charts! I'm keeping these suckers for reference at the end of '14.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:20 | 4465747 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Oh but lumber! Lumber! lolol

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:35 | 4466316 Arnold
Arnold's picture

When we were a small company in New England , building homes and condos in the early eighties, the eggs in the front office were buying lumber futures.

Really, from what I know now , the price  predicted the tumble in that era quite well.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 02:42 | 4467293 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

could this decorrelation on the S&P and lumber be considered a 'lumber puncture' ?


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:10 | 4465702 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

Grant Williams: Gold And Appetite For Distraction

 Grant Williams has produced the brilliant and highly recommended piece on the recent geopolitical stage and place of Gold in the modern financial world. As you can see from his chart above this recent party has only started and the new Bull Leg will take Gold much higher. Bears are still out there in mass and it is very good beginning of the new Bull.
  Gold miners have already very impressive gains from December and stronger players are already up sometimes close to 100% like McEwen Mining from the recent low. Smaller juniors are still waiting for their turn and the strong stories will produce spectacular gains again as Rick Rule has discussed recently.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:11 | 4465710 Mr Giggles
Mr Giggles's picture

You dont make it you dont own it.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:14 | 4465722 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

SHEEPLES DON"T GIVE A FUCK . As logn as they can get thier phones to work who the fuck cares. 


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:14 | 4465723 Mr Giggles
Mr Giggles's picture

You make it you still dont own it.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:15 | 4465731 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture



Dust off the "Deer In The Headlight" pic - gonna be needing it .........

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:16 | 4465736 Mr Giggles
Mr Giggles's picture

We are all SHEEPLES you know what goes one.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:23 | 4465756 Mr Giggles
Mr Giggles's picture

I sell a gun, the guy shoots my supplier.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:27 | 4465767 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Not all X axes are the same, but the point is not negated and well taken. 

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:39 | 4465798 Mr Giggles
Mr Giggles's picture

Is it your company or not SHUt tHE fU

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 15:54 | 4465837 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Look, after an 84 year old nun and peace activist and her much younger cronies [in their 60s] were arrested at a plant [they were given five years imprisonment] after they were there two hours and spray painted peace slogans and bible verses on the wall, anyone could walk in and do just about anything. Just as an aside, when they were found and cuffed they were singing songs and offered candles and roses to the guards. Thank God we have security services protecting our nuclear sites from such dangerous criminals.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 19:10 | 4468948 janus
janus's picture

it's called's where you apply when no mall will hire you for security.

the things i saw as savannah river nuclear (SRS) would blow your minds...they make afghani conscripts look like elite commandos...but they do have some cool toys (yes, we are arming dolts and slow-witted-rejects with full auto and AUTHORITY!...but 'you' can't be trusted with a 9mm...what a country). 

there are sensors everywhere at these places; but when triggered, they're usually assumed to be deer nibbling at leafy stuff and/or sippin from babbling strategy is to disregard and refreshen the coffee.  it's unofficial policy to assume that terrorists will enter at the front gate.

anyway, just imagine what would'a happened had those nuns been armed with box-cutters!

also, you would lose lotsa sleep if'n you knew how vulnerable are our nation's dams...especially those spaced sequentially along a single waterway.

basically, 'terrorism' is total bullshit or 'terrorists' are the most incompetent and stupidest among us (yes, dumber than a wackenhut security guard)...i say it's the former. 


Sun, 02/23/2014 - 09:22 | 4467548 rtalcott
rtalcott's picture

This is NM....NOTHING works here....especially anything DOE/NNSA or DOD.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:09 | 4465881 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Thx Tyler, 

Excellent as usual.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:17 | 4465907 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:19 | 4465915 knowshitsurelock
knowshitsurelock's picture

This time is different.  It's the weather bitches!!  Go Yellen, crank up the printing presses!!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:25 | 4465932 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Good job Yellen you fucking cunt!!!!!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:28 | 4465946 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I know it is fun to yell at Yellen, but she ain't been in there long enough to be responsible for those charts. 

Good job Ben you fucking cunt!!!!!

There we go. All better.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:27 | 4465943 DirtyWilly
DirtyWilly's picture

LOLWAT?  You're comparing charts weeks apart, to charts days apart, to charts months apart???  I didn't know you sunk to our administration's methods.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:30 | 4465956 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I made the same observation up thread. Still, the results are not negated. Things are just kind of zoomed in on or pulled out, seemingly at random.

A better way to do it is to make note you have pulled out or zoomed in on a detail.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:44 | 4465989 ncdirtdigger
ncdirtdigger's picture

Don't fight the Fed. I don't have to like what they are doing, but I might as well 'profit' from it. Invest accordingly, hedge wisely.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:06 | 4466241 mt paul
mt paul's picture

don't feed

the Fed....

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 01:40 | 4467240 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

runnin with the devil

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 16:58 | 4466033 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

The Durden put in 12 charts.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:00 | 4466038 Money_for_Nothing
Money_for_Nothing's picture

This is implying that the FED has lost control of the 12 items. That it only controls S&P now.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:19 | 4466101 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

You are exactly right but the paradox is that the masses are fixated on just the S & P.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:05 | 4466055 The Econ Ideal
The Econ Ideal's picture

Ramp Capital is back to work again, Fed/NYFed trading desk prodding included. 

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:16 | 4466089 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I was on a plane once when it was announced tthat an emergency landing would be required. We were then told to put our heads between our legs for the landing.

I turned to the guy next to me and asked what the purpose of putting our heads between our legs is. He looked at me and with a wry smile said:

"So you can kiss your ass goodbye"

So assume the position dear readers because its coming.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:49 | 4466198 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

I was on a plane once when the stewardess announced that it was necessary i put my head between her legs. Assume position she said, because i'm coming.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:14 | 4466263 Bubenthauser
Bubenthauser's picture

Post of the year so far for me. Chapeau!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 19:39 | 4466460 kurt
kurt's picture

I assume I'm coming based on your position.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:52 | 4466200 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The road to recovery is built into the chair bitch tapering swindle. Ctrl + P to infinity and beeeyyyonnndddd. 

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:55 | 4466215 Overleveraged_a...
Overleveraged_and_Impatient's picture

You guys need to chill with the video ads. The site doesn't load

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:04 | 4466237 Atomizer
Sat, 02/22/2014 - 21:38 | 4466775 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Install this...


Freeware. No bugs and benign.


ZH will load in a jiffy and you be rid of those annoying ads on Youtube also.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 22:53 | 4466970 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture



Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:56 | 4466216 The big unzip
The big unzip's picture

Does "WTF" mean "Well That's Fantastic!"

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 17:57 | 4466221 Silver Bullet
Silver Bullet's picture


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:30 | 4466305 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The way I look t those charts everything looks bad exceppt the S&P.  Buy. Buy. Buy.


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:37 | 4466322 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I think Soros is doomed.


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:38 | 4466323 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture


Cute, clever and concise...try for the latter....the first 2 are for English majors not financial writers. When you grow up, THEN you can have a crack at writing the great American clever novel. Until then go for punch and precision. Use common vocabulary and strive for the fewest words possible. Your readers will feel full on just appetizers.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 19:25 | 4466429 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Somehow my attention span dropped off after the word concise. Moved on to George Soros poster.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 19:31 | 4469007 janus
janus's picture

help me to understand...are you directly or indirectly begging janus to bully you?

'common' is most unwelcome in our rarefied realm.  and, speaking only for myself, janus picked Fight Club for many reasons, the artful, inventive and mirthful manipulation of language being one of them; another, and the one that should now concern you, is that i claim it as an exquisite pleasure -- 'it' in this case being the privilege, nay, DUTY, to devastate the purveyors of opinions that displease me.  

i get the sense that you're something of a masochist...wantonly pleading for a devastation with total disregard for your own safety and/or emotional well being in so reckless a fashion...shame on you!

but janus is a man of honor and duty; and if it's a devastation you need, a devastation you shall receive.

knock and it will be opened to you/

seek and ye shall find,


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 18:51 | 4466353 ms8172
ms8172's picture

This is exactly why George Soros went short!!!  

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 19:04 | 4466374 noob
noob's picture

Miles: I don't believe this! I've got a trig midterm tomorrow, and I'm being chased by Guido the killer pimp.


Joel Goodson: Porsche. There is no substitute.
Miles: Fuck you.

Risky Business (2/4) Movie CLIP - Porsche Getaway (1983) HD

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 19:02 | 4466389 shankster
shankster's picture

I'm dizzy now.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 19:21 | 4466423 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Decoupling = expect correction. Enough said.

Talking of inter-cartel violence and their victims, the Ukraine seems to be heading down the toilet one way or another. Join the EU: Screwed. Not join the EU:Screwed. Somebody in the West is going to make (Has already made) a lot of cash betting on their sovereign default, and the Russian banks with exposure to the Ukraine (Russian banks downgraded on Friday to CCC by the S&P) are in serious trouble now. This could take a couple of Russian banks down when the dust settles. Did they cover their risks with CDS? If so, who issued? Counterparty risk could be contagious. Most of the banks in europe are hanging by their fingernails as it is.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 03:59 | 4467346 Villageidiot777
Villageidiot777's picture

So in near future lumber price is going to through the roof? Also a bit worried if jobless claims hit back to -280k region, would it mean that lots of houses will be built from more expensive lumber.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 19:22 | 4466424 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

If only the Bernank would have been smart enough to give each non 1%er 3000 shares of QQQ in March 2009, we'd all be $250,000 better off now and the economy would be HUMMING and it would have only cost $7Trillion!!

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 19:32 | 4466446 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Here is a WTF funniest story at least for me this weekend.

Fatwa forbids Muslims from 'suicidal' Mars missons


Sat, 02/22/2014 - 20:27 | 4466583 Dina Strange
Dina Strange's picture

Last graph is the best.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 21:27 | 4466751 forwardho
forwardho's picture

The Truth, while sometimes painful is always best!

Save and print a hard copy of that last graph. A picture that easy to understand is dangerous.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 21:15 | 4466718 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

I think I read somewhere's the Austrian bankers were up their tits in debt over the Ukraine default thing.

I saw this a day or two ago,don't remember the link,but I do remember thinking "Kredit-Anstalt"at the time.

The rumors of the "Players" leaving the country in chartered Lear jets with their suitcases of booty is disturbing.

A) They are afraid of a pogrom or crackdown on the Mafia.

    (Someone might actually have to do some prison time).

B) They know something that we don't know,e.g.,sovereign default,civil war,or both.

I feel for the locals but the US has a lousy record lately.

I say we stay out of this one (and Syria too).

No more meatgrinders for US troops.

Also when do the Libyans get their gold back? 

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 21:18 | 4466725 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

There is nothing more dangerous to this planet than a bunch of well-armed,broke superpowers,who have to print money to purchase their own debt.Thank god there aren't too many around...





Sat, 02/22/2014 - 21:18 | 4466727 robnume
robnume's picture

Thanks for the charts! Now my brain really is on fire! Quick, pass the drugs, any drugs.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 21:26 | 4466750 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

The last months or so some bloggers here have stated that things don't feel right in the markets.I agree and I am no analyst.I come here for the comments and try to cut thru the bullshit.By these charts I think both Japan and China are toast.By a weird coincidence these two countries purchase a great deal of the US debt.So to recap: there are two very hostile countries extremely overleveredged,and the US also very skint.And the price of gold just keeps puttering along?

None of these countries are fixed.Zero.It is like Detroit all over...

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 22:06 | 4466847 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Chart 13 will have serious divergence when China disposes of more US bonds.

Sat, 02/22/2014 - 22:56 | 4466973 steveo77
steveo77's picture

NEW information on the Plutonium leaking site WIPP--

Large cracks in the WIPP ceilings show extremely weak structural characteristics of the salt, and that it has been bandaged together with chicken wire in most of the storage rooms. Having highly corrosive salt fall onto barrels of plutonium, just doesn't seem like a smart thing me, call me overly cautious.


First these nuke pimps store the plutonium on top of the reactors themselves to save money (as if that makes any sense if any proper risk control scenario), and then they go store it in a weak and highly corrosive salt excavation. Wow.



In some rooms they reinforced some of the walls with brick, see picture at reinforcing steel! Just silly 19th century "brick technology". And these are our best and brightest scientists?




Per the initial report from the monitoring agency at the University

Additionally, a third ambient air sampling station located approximately 109 yards northwest of the WIPP exhaust shaft and within the WIPP property protection area (PPA) has not been analyzed at this time because CEMRC personnel were not able to access the area for collection of the filter until Tuesday, February 18th at approximately 9:00 am. Results from this filter will be released once the destructive analysis and radiochemical separation/counting processes have been performed.


As of Saturday night, the 22nd, I have check their website, and they have not updated with the results from this near exhaust shaft filter. That is very suspicious, considering this is a Plutonium leak as the first underground test facility. Hmmmm.....4 and 1/2 days, and no results after a Plutonium leak. I wonder if they are discussing how they are going to "communicate" the results.


Here is their website so you can go check yourself.


Sun, 02/23/2014 - 07:28 | 4467472 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Long Potassium Iodide. 

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 07:41 | 4467479 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Won't do jack shit. It is just to prevent the incorporation of radioactive Iodine 131 (which is a fission product). Against any contamination with heavy transuranics, like Plutonium, it will do absolutely nothing.

Sun, 02/23/2014 - 10:59 | 4467642 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Just nuke it like they do in all those disaster movies.

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