Global Economy Collapses Despite 4th "Warmest" January On Record

Tyler Durden's picture

The last 3 weeks have seen the macro fundamentals of the G-10 major economies collapse at the fastest pace in almost 4 years and almost the biggest slump since Lehman. Despite a plethora of data showing that 'weather' is not to blame, US strategists, 'economists', and asset-gatherers are sticking to the meme that this is all because of the cold on the east coast of the US (and that means wondrous pent-up demand to come). However, as the New York Times reports, for the earth, it was the 4th warmest January on record.


G-10 macro data is collapsing...


Must be the weather in the US, right?

For people throughout the Eastern United States who spent January slipping, sliding and shivering, here is a counter-intuitive fact: For the earth as a whole, it was the fourth-warmest January on record.

As NY Times reports,

But this might be another surprise: Despite all the weather drama, it was not a January for the record books.


By the time analysts averaged the heat in the West and the cold in the East, the national temperature for the month fell only one-tenth of a degree below the 20th-century average for January. January 2011 was colder.


No state set a monthly record for January cold. Alabama, also walloped by the ice storms, came closest, with the fourth-coldest January on its record books.



The United States covers only 2 percent of the surface of the globe, so what happens in this country does not have much influence on overall global temperatures.


Brazil, much of southern Africa, most of Europe, large parts of China and most of Australia were unseasonably warm in January, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Thursday. That continues a pattern of unusual global warming that is believed to be a consequence of human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases.


Even in the United States, more than a third of the country is in drought of varying intensity. Mountain snowpack in many parts of the West is only half of normal, portending a parched summer and a likelihood of severe wildfires.




But the cold weather in the East is being balanced, in a sense, by the bizarrely warm temperatures in the West. And that trend, too, is likely to continue.


The outlook over the next month is for continued above-normal temperatures in the West, the Southwest and parts of Alaska, as well as a continuation of the California drought, despite recent rains that have eased the situation slightly.

Can we finally put to bed the "weather" meme and perhaps, just perhaps, recognize that the global economy is slowing as the animal spirits exuberance of global central bank liquidity pump-priming has simply run its course and faces the reality of a debt-saturated, growth-stifled reality.

As the following publicly available paper notes, the years of 2.0% 'trend' growth for the US are over...

The United States achieved a 2.0 percent average annual growth rate of real GDP per capita between 1891 and 2007. This paper predicts that growth in the 25 to 40 years after 2007 will be much slower, particularly for the great majority of the population. Future growth will be 1.3 percent per annum for labor productivity in the total economy, 0.9 percent for output per capita, 0.4 percent for real income per capita of the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution, and 0.2 percent for the real disposable income of that group.



The primary cause of this growth slowdown is a set of four headwinds, all of them widely recognized and uncontroversial. Demographic shifts will reduce hours worked per capita, due not just to the retirement of the baby boom generation but also as a result of an exit from the labor force both of youth and prime-age adults. Educational attainment, a central driver of growth over the past century, stagnates at a plateau as the U.S. sinks lower in the world league tables of high school and college completion rates. Inequality continues to increase, resulting in real income growth for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution that is fully half a point per year below the average growth of all incomes. A projected long-term increase in the ratio of debt to GDP at all levels of government will inevitably lead to more rapid growth in tax revenues and/or slower growth in transfer payments at some point within the next several decades.


There is no need to forecast any slowdown in the pace of future innovation for this gloomy forecast to come true, because that slowdown already occurred four decades ago. In the eight decades before 1972 labor productivity grew at an average rate 0.8 percent per year faster than in the four decades since 1972. While no forecast of a future slowdown of innovation is needed, skepticism is offered here, particularly about the techno-optimists who currently believe that we are at a point of inflection leading to faster technological change. The paper offers several historical examples showing that the future of technology can be forecast 50 or even 100 years in advance and assesses widely discussed innovations anticipated to occur over the next few decades, including medical research, small robots, 3-D printing, big data, driverless vehicles, and oil-gas fracking.


NBER by zerohedge

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Tortfeasor's picture

Someone let Al Gore do the measuring again?

Flakmeister's picture

If only you could blame Al and be done with it....

And look out if an El Nino hits....

Flakmeister's picture

Trolling pretty hard, aren't we?

svayambhu108's picture

Comic Sans Serif in an academic paper, inspired choice.

Offthebeach's picture

How stupid did Al Gore have to be to flunk out out of a southron deploma mill bible college during the Vietnam War?
Yep. Thats a good source for ticklish science.
But, Praise Jesus, Reverend Al (Gore, not Sharpton) has been blessed. Gulfstream jet, 110 yacht, multiple manshions and a flatuant footprint bigger than a fresh Godzilla dump on a Tokyo mudflat.

Truthseeker2's picture
Global Climate Change: Causing Worldwide Weather Apocalypse


TheAnswerIs42's picture

That article is absolute BS.


dogbreath's picture

your proofs are missing just like the data that Dr's Mann ande Weaver refuse to produce.  

NoDebt's picture

Dogbreath- you have demonstrated here tonight, amply, how to completely and utterly lose an argument despite having good facts on your side.  That article was fairly compelling.  Your infantile name-calling comments around it..... do you think they helped or hurt your argument?

Don't answer.  It doesn't really matter what you say from here forward.

dogbreath's picture

I am tired of Flak being the Fonestar of Oil and AGW threads.  I stand by what i said, he's a paid troll

Flakmeister's picture

Whats the matter, you don't like your circle jerk interrupted by facts?

If you want an echo chamber where you can vent your spleen, parade your ignorance and satisfy your confirmation bias with pseudo-science and academic fraud, hang out at WUWT. The denialati will love you there, but Anthony will frown on your lame cocksucker insults...

Best of all you won't have to worry about any climate trolls, Anthony "moderates" the boards...


BTW you couldn't pay me enough to deal with ignorant dickwads like you...

dogbreath's picture

Bukake on your face bitch.     You and your friends have it all,  psuedo science, academic fraud and a refusal to question your own dogma.  


15000+  scientists disagree and the propagandists like you  keep spewing shit

If you are not paid well then why are you  the Fonestar of AGW threads here at ZH

Flakmeister's picture

LMAO, The Oregon Petition?  Between Mann and this you are truly fighting yesterdays war buddy, this is rehashed 4 year old shit...

Wow, 15000+ scientists and none of them can write a peer-reviewable quality paper explaining why its wrong?

Any ideas? 

Buehler? Buehler??


Forgot to ask if any of them were climate scientists. Are there any?

dogbreath's picture

You keep showing up   -   when we have lost so many here at ZH   -  spewing the institutional line



Offthebeach's picture

Envioro mish mash combined various always low quality government pseudo statistics factored to centralish planning......
Crank handle......
Oh My, look at the scary number (break out bag of bones to confirm)

Flakmeister's picture

Let us know when you want to return to reality, we'll save a place for you...

Freddie's picture

LOL!  Michael Mann getting bitch slapped!   LOL!   AGW is a fraud. 

El Nino and La Nina are real but it has nothing to do with humans.  It has been happening for hundreds of years.

Flakmeister's picture

You have an odd definition of bitch-slap freddie...

From one of my favorite bunnies...

Now some, not Eli to be sure, but maybe Mark Steyn, may have not noticed that the court has denied their special motion to dismiss under the DC Anti-SLAPP act.  Still pretending that nothing has happened Steyn’s first claim for damages, based on the DC Anti-SLAPP act appears to find something in that law that is not there, e.g. the possibility of an award for damages based on a violation of the anti-SLAPP act. Popcorn please.


And yes Freddie, El Nino and La Ninas are real and have nothing to do with humans. Was there a point to that? They are a major source of natural variability and are impossible to predict though GCMs exhibit similar behaviour...

The El Nino watch for 2014 is on, and if it is a strong one, temperature records will be blown away in a lot of places...

detached.amusement's picture

I can see you in the mirror now, just like in spaceballs.....COME ONNNNN, SCWARTZ!!!!


Save my predictions, el nino!  You're my only hope!


You fkn dolt.

Truthseeker2's picture
Global Financial Architecture and Economic Systems on Verge of Collapse



Gee, even the IPCC was only 95 % confident. Congrats Freddie! (ps your new avatar sucks too)

Truthseeker2's picture
Geoengineered Weather Patterns Wreaking Havoc Across The Planet



TruthInSunshine's picture

The U.S. Is most likely stagnating in terms of GDP growth, at best, and even more likely, it has now been contracting IN REAL TERMS since Q2 2013 and for each and every quarter consecutively since then; IOW, a'true recession given 3 quarters of contraction (with more on the way).

The U.S, EU, Japanese, Chinese & BRIC economies are all in dire straits'that will be difficult , bordering on impossible, to get out of (for a variety of differing reasons).

Wait until the Real Mr. Market finds out that the CBs have been rigging the game this extensively and radically.

I be genuinely believe the global economy is facing the very real possibility of entering a depression, even if the butchers of statistics & charlatans of economics would always and forever dismiss this possibility as "poppycock."

p.s. - Paul "When Mars Attacks" Krugman has not ceased being economic's largest douchebag.

Flakmeister's picture

Stagnation combined with countries unable to adapt or completely hydrocarbon deficient falling into chaos... We have seen it already: Egypt, Argentina, the list goes on....

The CBer's nowadays are too clever to have an old fashioned depression. But it will seem that way to a lot of people as more and more the world slips into economic oblivion. Food riots will become common.

Ultimately, it is all about the convertability of your fiat into oil. And the USD is still your best bet to hold that privilege the longest...

And this is a process that could take 2 years or 20... 

Call it slow, lingering death.... 


I'll be back after I finish freebasing some SOMA....

nmewn's picture

Its like economic vortex or sumpin.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Whoa, wait, wait...  Are we back to global warming now?

So hard to keep up...

LetThemEatRand's picture

ZH is all about clicks now.   I swore it off a while back but I can't find shit to replace it so here I am.  There are still a few really good articles here.  And the most informative comments anywhere.

perchprism's picture


Here's an informative comment:  You're a marxist cocksucking asshole.

BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Took him a while to build the argument and just when you thought he was going off track and starting to lose the audience - BAM, an absolute water tight case rocks you back in your chair.

hobopants's picture

The best comments in all the land for sure, until someone drops a big fat B-coin dump on the thread and then it goes to hell.

Flakmeister's picture

Thanks, I appreciate that ;-)

LetThemEatRand's picture

I was actually referring to Harbanger and the lesbian stuff.  Can't get enough.

Flakmeister's picture

FWIW, hard to top the subtle snark that Spastica brings to the table...

Flakmeister's picture

Francis's own hate did him in, do you not understand that?

nmewn's picture


“Plaintiff continues to evade the one action that might definitively establish its [his science’s] respectability - by objecting, in the courts of Virginia, British Columbia and elsewhere, to the release of his research in this field. See Cuccinelli vs Rectors and Visitors of the University of Virginia...”

OMG!...he's being forced to admit his data cannot be used in a court of law, data which is his own evidence, which he destroyed because it was fraudulent when he first manufactured the data.


dogbreath's picture

Flakmeister the flak meister always shows up on any oil or global warming thresd to make sure the punch bowl is always full .   His archive of AGW propaganda at his fingertips to link as proof that we are all idiots here at ZH.  

Flakmeister's picture

Like Nature, the PNAS, American Institute of Physics, Science....

Why go to sources like that when you can simply do blog science like you clowns...

dogbreath's picture

fallacy  -   ignoratio elenchi ad vericundiam  

So you met Al Gore once,   so what?

Flakmeister's picture


Nobody cares troll...