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Global Economy Collapses Despite 4th "Warmest" January On Record
The last 3 weeks have seen the macro fundamentals of the G-10 major economies collapse at the fastest pace in almost 4 years and almost the biggest slump since Lehman. Despite a plethora of data showing that 'weather' is not to blame, US strategists, 'economists', and asset-gatherers are sticking to the meme that this is all because of the cold on the east coast of the US (and that means wondrous pent-up demand to come). However, as the New York Times reports, for the earth, it was the 4th warmest January on record.
G-10 macro data is collapsing...
Must be the weather in the US, right?
For people throughout the Eastern United States who spent January slipping, sliding and shivering, here is a counter-intuitive fact: For the earth as a whole, it was the fourth-warmest January on record.
But this might be another surprise: Despite all the weather drama, it was not a January for the record books.
By the time analysts averaged the heat in the West and the cold in the East, the national temperature for the month fell only one-tenth of a degree below the 20th-century average for January. January 2011 was colder.
No state set a monthly record for January cold. Alabama, also walloped by the ice storms, came closest, with the fourth-coldest January on its record books.
The United States covers only 2 percent of the surface of the globe, so what happens in this country does not have much influence on overall global temperatures.
Brazil, much of southern Africa, most of Europe, large parts of China and most of Australia were unseasonably warm in January, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Thursday. That continues a pattern of unusual global warming that is believed to be a consequence of human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases.
Even in the United States, more than a third of the country is in drought of varying intensity. Mountain snowpack in many parts of the West is only half of normal, portending a parched summer and a likelihood of severe wildfires.
...
But the cold weather in the East is being balanced, in a sense, by the bizarrely warm temperatures in the West. And that trend, too, is likely to continue.
The outlook over the next month is for continued above-normal temperatures in the West, the Southwest and parts of Alaska, as well as a continuation of the California drought, despite recent rains that have eased the situation slightly.
Can we finally put to bed the "weather" meme and perhaps, just perhaps, recognize that the global economy is slowing as the animal spirits exuberance of global central bank liquidity pump-priming has simply run its course and faces the reality of a debt-saturated, growth-stifled reality.
As the following publicly available paper notes, the years of 2.0% 'trend' growth for the US are over...
The United States achieved a 2.0 percent average annual growth rate of real GDP per capita between 1891 and 2007. This paper predicts that growth in the 25 to 40 years after 2007 will be much slower, particularly for the great majority of the population. Future growth will be 1.3 percent per annum for labor productivity in the total economy, 0.9 percent for output per capita, 0.4 percent for real income per capita of the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution, and 0.2 percent for the real disposable income of that group.
The primary cause of this growth slowdown is a set of four headwinds, all of them widely recognized and uncontroversial. Demographic shifts will reduce hours worked per capita, due not just to the retirement of the baby boom generation but also as a result of an exit from the labor force both of youth and prime-age adults. Educational attainment, a central driver of growth over the past century, stagnates at a plateau as the U.S. sinks lower in the world league tables of high school and college completion rates. Inequality continues to increase, resulting in real income growth for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution that is fully half a point per year below the average growth of all incomes. A projected long-term increase in the ratio of debt to GDP at all levels of government will inevitably lead to more rapid growth in tax revenues and/or slower growth in transfer payments at some point within the next several decades.
There is no need to forecast any slowdown in the pace of future innovation for this gloomy forecast to come true, because that slowdown already occurred four decades ago. In the eight decades before 1972 labor productivity grew at an average rate 0.8 percent per year faster than in the four decades since 1972. While no forecast of a future slowdown of innovation is needed, skepticism is offered here, particularly about the techno-optimists who currently believe that we are at a point of inflection leading to faster technological change. The paper offers several historical examples showing that the future of technology can be forecast 50 or even 100 years in advance and assesses widely discussed innovations anticipated to occur over the next few decades, including medical research, small robots, 3-D printing, big data, driverless vehicles, and oil-gas fracking.
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I disagree. He's another politician who figured out how to profit from Team politics. Whether he is right or wrong is beside the point. Anyone who thinks he gives a fuck about the planet needs their head examined, but he can measure his piles of money.
this is getting tiresome but while I'm at it...
what you and Fredie and nmewn and I and everyone else has to understand is there is a greater meaning to free speech. Whether Al Gore is right or wrong, regardless of what any of us think about Al Gore, is not beside the point. The point of the greater meaning of free speech, the derivative from pre-1776 Natural Law which is in the constitution is to:
invoke the law in the creation of an understanding of the vital information from which can come; forgiveness, tolerance, acceptance, respect, trust, friendship and love, protecting life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."
Take note ZH: Flakmeister is apolitical compared to Al Gore, but does deliver the VITAL information. ZH is 99% noise.
That's because he doesn't have an electronic microscope.
LMAO....
Adolescent humor and you can't even get the punchline right...
The Yahoo! boards are clearly your destiny...
Rentier88
He can't measure his crank because he's too fat to reach it.
The weather again:
*Fresh bomb blast in Bangkok yest – 2 killed, 22 injured
No safe havens in the world anymore.
"Despite a plethora of data showing that 'weather' is not to blame, US strategists, 'economists', and asset-gatherers are sticking to the meme that this is all because of the cold on the east coast of the US (and that means wondrous pent-up demand to come)."
No, in the us, the asset gatherers are sticking with the plan that the fed has their back. And after five years, they ain't been wrong. Why fix what ain't broken in their world?
Oh please. These numbers have been invalidated a hundred different ways. Just last year they had to admit they were completely bogus. "Global Warming" is the greatest scam ever perpetrated by the collectivists. It's the ultimate way to extract wealth and get government grants - perfect combo. The fact it's being trumpeted on this site is sad.
And I say this as someone who thinks the cold weather excuse is just as disingenuous. But no reason to use bad science to refute it
For the junkers, out of curiosity why do you believe the supposed line put out by the establishment? Doesn't this site challenge that line every day in the financial realm? Why do you think the "scientific" realm is any less corrupt? Let me guarantee you this - if a bunch of "elites" gather in Europe and I agree on something you should immediately believe the opposite is true. Because it is designed to control you.
And how exactly was the Earth 7-9 degrees warmer 170 million years ago. That was long before evil humans polluted anything. The Earth warms and cools. Long after the industrial revolution we had one of the coldest eras ever. There is no test anywhere that can show human pollution heats the Earth...None
So you do agree in global warming. If the earth was 7-9 degrees warmer 170 million years ago, right? Stop the stupid shit. Of course parts of the earth are currently in a warming trend and cooling in warmer areas. That's called climate change. Yes, the polar ice caps are melting significantly and the satellite imaging and photos were not manufactured in the Arizona desert where the fake Apollo missions were filmed. No, that is not debatable in the scientific community.
If you don't give a damn about pouring toxic elements into our atmosphere fine, but don't try to justify it with things you pull out of your ass or that your radio told you.
.
No, the polar ice caps are NOT "melting significantly":
http://tiny.cc/u1lrbx
Global ice cover is right at it's 30-year average. In fact, there is nothing unusual or unprecedented happening with the global climate. Everything being observed now has happened before, and to a much greater extent than when humans began emitting CO2.
If you don't see that the "carbon" scare is simply a money making scam, then you don't see anything. Despite decades of predictions of runaway global warming and climate catastrophe, none of the predictions have come true. NONE of them.
Doesn't that tell you something? It tells rational folks that the scare has run it's course. But by all means, keep flogging your dead "climate catastrophe" horse. It won't make any difference to the planet.
.
The real question about climate change is should we try to mitigate or adapt?
Given that we don't know shit (the failure of the current climate models is all too obvious) about how the global climate works (less than a few hundred years of data, only 30 years by satellite), adaptation seems to be the most intelligent course for the time being.
An awareness and mitigation of pollution is also just as obvious, but global income distribution should not be a necessary part of that process.
Unless you live in a political world.
The Antarctic Sea ice is not the ice cap and the Antarctic icecap is clearly melting:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183/F5.large.jpg
In fact, the net loss of land ice in the north and south is accelerating....
Moreover when you look at global sea ice, it is clearly decreasing as the small gain in the south is dwarfed by the loss in the north
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/global-snow/2013/ann/globa...
And here is somthing even you can understand
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OBCXWAHo5I
Ummm, about those polar ice caps. Let's remind the "scientific community" that there are two of them:
"Antarctic sea ice extent continues to track very high in January, reaching the second-highest monthly extent in the 36-year satellite monitoring record. New monthly extent records were set for each month between August and November, and December was tied for the record (within the limits of the precision)."
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
But hey, without this shit science, we'd still be allowed to use incandescent light bulbs. Instead we've opted for the GE compact fluorescent bulb, which cost more, gives off shitty light and doesn't last (7 years my ass).
Funny story: Most Americans have no idea they're supposed to recycle them, so we'll be seeing a nice spike in mercury levels in our water supply! I guess you think that's a small price to pay for making the scientific community feel like they're not just a bunch of useless assholes who are unwilling to get real jobs.
You are going to have to be more clever than that...
I just posted links that put lie to your disingenuous claim..
Now to the stuff you simply made up:
Studies have shown that simply throwing CFLs in the garbage leads to less mercury in the enviroment than using incandescents powered by coal plants...
Look it up...
Note: dropping your old CFLs off at Home Depot is really the proper way to dispose of them...
Science Magazine is your "Authority"? Ri-i-i-i-ght.
Here is a chart of Antarctic ice gain for the past several decades:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Mar/S_03_plot.png
Notice anything unusual? Such as: Antarctic ice is steadily rising, big time.
The fact is that GLOBAL ice cover is right at it's 30-year average [the red line]:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.wit...
We're talking GLOBAL here – not cherry-picked regional fluctuations.
And this is Antarctic Summer, so any short-term reduction is only temporary. The fact is that there is nothing either unusual, or unprecedented happening. Everything in the climate is completely normal, Chicken Little, so you can relax. The sky isn't falling, it was only a tiny acorn that hit you on the head.
Sheesh, the things people fall for! No wonder Algore is rich.
So you think that a modest increase in Antarctic sea ice "proves" anything. It is a result that is expected based on:
1) Observed increase in snowfall from higher humidity levels enabled by higher temperatures
2) Increase in freshwater flow from melting land ice caps decreasing salinity
3) Expected area increase due to stronger winds caused by stronger temperature gradient...
http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice-intermediate.htm
Whereas the Arctic Sea Ice is in freefall as very nicely illustrated here
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01a3fcb811aa970b-800wi
I wonder what impact the geoengineering experiment being conducted through chemtrails is having on our global weather patterns.
It doesn't matter ifyou factor in best case scenarios for everything we are still on a downward trajectory. The numbers are too big to maintain an extrapolation of the past 150 years of persistent economic growth. We will continue to expect a continuation of the past 150 years of persistent economic growth policy until all of the beneficiaries are deceased and have sucked every dimes worth of the futures resources much less the present based on past performance.
8pm marks the initial beat-down of gold. nothing dramatic, but definitely a move against.
Wouldn't "income inequality" be a symptom not a cause?
At some point the feedback goes non-linear so to speak...
is that when you quardruple all the positive feedback and ignore all the negative feedbacks? something's gotta be making them models produce garbage, too bad the data is absolutely mangled by the time it actually winds up being "input" to the model.
The numbers here are correct.
What else to say?
Bullish! ES and especially NAZ will get jammed higher the only question is pre-market or right after the open...
gold and silver collapsed on Tokyo open too
wtf is wrong with you people, stop troll downvoting - check your charts
It must be nice to be dumb as a post, but still be highly paid, as are economists these days.
"Demographic shifts will reduce hours worked per capita, ... as a result of an exit from the labor force both of youth and prime-age adults." (The breeding & feeding of the FSA will contnue)
"Inequality continues to increase, resulting in real income growth for the bottom 99 percent." (No one who really works for a living will be paid enough to live ever again)
"A projected long-term increase in the ratio of debt to GDP at all levels of government will inevitably lead to more rapid growth in tax revenues" (But somehow those of us who do work for that pitiable salary will be able to pay more taxes).
I guess this is the new, new government math where -2 -2= +4 in future tax revenues
Since when is this, "new". Look at declining tax base local governments around the country, They don't lower taxes when the tax base decreases. They crack down on delinquent taxpayers by auctionong off their property. Not only do they charge usury interest and penalties, they arbitrarily reduce the time to pay before penalties,interest and auctioning takes place.
Look at Gary, IN Flint, MI Cleveland, OH so on and so forth downward trajectory in RE prices, ain't no jobs=prices go down except for except for what government expects to collect.
"Game, set, match New York."
These "hits" are gonna really start comin' too in my view...but obviously I hope I'm wrong.
look objectivly at the positives and the negatives and add it up and you get net, net ____________________.
hmmm, think i'll ditch another monthly expense, maybe go back to a party line. get rid of a car? move to a warmer climate-YES!
live like a frugal king, watch the stupidity paying a portion of my cheap bastaerd lifestyle. TIA...
lowered standard of living, for me doesn't mean living shitier; means living smarter, fucking simple hariet.
Along with the exporting of our jobs and factories, and the exporting of inflation by the Fed, the US can now be blamed for exporting global warming to other countries -- but yet again, this is another thing we cannot seem to get right within our own borders...
I agree with this.
Time to write a paranoid letter to the PTB?
"Your weather weapon has failed mein further."
ZH seems extra rambunctious tonight. Nothing about "bailouts bad for recovery"? If I didn't know any better I'd say we're schilin' fer the villain here.
Time for a "Bilbo Baggins sees the Ring again" moment?
(Don't worry...we've all been there.)
No gold isn't going to get crushed because the economy is tanking (again.) It's gonna get crushed "because the economy is bankin'."
Not in a million years did I see any of what has happened in the last five years coming (financially...let alone economically...speaking.)
The "war thingy" is a whole ' nother matter however.
"And upon these shores the fun and games end."
This is supremely bullish news!
If this keeps up Yellen will have to at least double down on QE and we may hit 36,000 in the DOW this year rather than next year as anticipated.
In related news, the ES is down almost a whole dollar, buy the dip!
bullshit. gubbermint numbers are total bullshit.
Private corporations put out bullshit data as well, and as should be well established by now, the corporate/big bank/financial services industry oligarchs are firmly in charge, not the government.
i agree, plus 1. and as my sister says, "its all fucking bullshit".
Yep The DHS is buying another 750 million bullets to kill us with now.
The Antarctic is having record ice build up and as of last week the Arctic has stunningly also increased its thickness.
Jamie Dimon and Loyd Blankfein and the FED Yellen and Bernanke's buddies have had enough of my FAFSA and other's food stamps. Now they are going to have Obama shoot us.
Oh well it was nice knowing everyone.
It's been fun.
can we shoot back?
Arctic sea ice growth has slowed dramatically in recent weeks, thanks in large part to abnormally warm air and water temperatures. Sea ice now sits at record low levels for mid-February.
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, as of February 18, sea ice covered about 14.36 million square kilometers in the Arctic. The previous low on this date was 14.37 million square kilometers in 2006.
The main culprit — in addition to the overall trend of global warming — is likely the rash of warm temperatures. With the polar vortex bringing cold air down to the U.S. this winter, warmer temperatures have been the norm in the Arctic. From February 1-17, temperatures were 7.2° to 14.4°F above normal for much of the Arctic. Some areas have been even warmer.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-ice-sits-at-record-low-for...
I can't imagine why the data points stop at January....
http://iceagenow.info/2014/02/top-10-coldest-winters-record-u-s-cities/
http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/nearly_frozen_lake_superior...
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/02/16/third-coldest-winter-on-re...
why are you looking at single trees and not the whole forest?
I always believe the NYT , really, really really, really really really really. I believe it to be total shit. That is what I believe about the NYT. Those assholes couldn't find an orifice to stick a thermometer in if they tried.
but if you give them a 2 x 2 with barbed wire wrapped they just might find it - anotherwords, malice manipulation.
Yo
In Canada we froze our dicks off
well some did...my wife is still smiling....
so I call BS on the warmest January crap.
It was so cold in my town they closed the golftown for 2 weeks cause no one could get there due to blizzards.
maybe that's why my wife was smiling.
This is just a collision of exuses.
They need an excuse for the economy and they have to keep the 'man made CO2 climate change thing going'. So they just hope nobody puts the two together. Just like when they claim hot weather is from climate change but cold weather is just weather. (when they don't claim that cold weather is climate change or due to global warming too)
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Check the chart. Arctic ice coverage is currently two standard deviations under the average, and it's never been this low. And it's thinner. And when the sun's rays hit the ice next month it'll melt like never before. The climate change train is now rolling and there's nothing we can do to stop it. So enjoy life while you can. I give it thirty years, tops, until the Sixth Extinction -- and the only extinction event ever caused by one single life form -- is complete.
And the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is also two standard deviations ABOVE the average, and it's never been this high.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/s_stddev_tim...
Note to self: Long Vineyards in Greenland.
Are you back for another bitch slapping? Did you sort out where you went wrong on GISP2 data? Polar Vortex
So what is it? Do you admit to being a fool or will it be liar?
----
The Antarctic Sea Ice Extent mean squat, what mattes is that the Antarctic ice cap is shrinking fast...
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183/F5.large.jpg
taken from
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183
BTW. the white space you left in your post has more useful content...
Gotta be more understanding Flak, shift work sucks. Tragically, 42 still has to punch a time card, poor bastard.
So WHICH is it? FIFY Flak. My money says The Answer is FOOL. 95% certainty.
hey flak, is that greenland data the same data they admitted they fucked up on and completely underestimated the greenland ice? I guess those aritcles about how their ice sheet models are badly flawed...
oh wait, you dont pay attention to anything that says a model has a problem with its predictions, my bad.
Still making shit up and projecting it?
Still denying all the holes on the models?
Still turning your head away the utter lack of predictive capability?
I heard if you just close your eyes and wish REAL hard, like, the problems disappear!
Note that the NY Times will not publish any letter denying AGW. Also note arctic ice doesnt in any way match co2 levels going back 50 years.
Why would it? C02 is not the only thing the drives global temperatures...
The Times is simply weeding out the loons... Take a hint...
Let me guess: you also believe in God in one form or another. A full 8% of all patents were awarded to people who believe in god. I'll let you work out why...
Me, believe in God???
You haven't been watching very closely...
so be it, because i may be dead. the black swan of a volcano blow could be a game changer, but unlikely.
if the water scarcity, or food scarcity, or stupifity of the human race don't cause a war of magnitude 1 first.
-so much shit inplay right now coming to an eclipse.
i'll stick to a fabricon retrace of 61.8 percent, at about a top of 7.7-8 billion...
what's in your future?
26% of Americans think the sun moves around the earth.
50% of Americans have no idea what the Dow Jones Average is.
40% of Americans could not find the US on a globe with the names removed.
50% of you missed the point of this article.
We are so truly fucked
What article?
There is no point, just buy more e-minis, we are going substantially higher from here economy be damned!
Warm? Last month? The US was cold as hell, one of the coldest I can remember in my 47 years.
You clearly are too thick to look at the map above which shows the eastern US to be one of few places on the globe that was cooler than normal...
And just as we're mere inches away from another new all-time record high!
Will bubbles never cease!