Dallas Fed Misses; Dumps To 9-Month Low, Harsh Texas Weather Blamed

Tyler Durden's picture

Last month's Dallas Fed print at 3.8 barely beat expectations of 3.7 to stall a 3-month missed expectations slump as the data basically has flatlined for 4 months. However, it appears the lack of snow in Texas did not help (though the word weather appears 7 times in survey responses) as Feb's data missed expectations by the most in 4 months and slumped to a 9 month low. What is perhaps most concerning is the outlook for 6-months foward dropped dramatically (with 11 sub-indices tumbling) and CapEx also slumped to a 5 month low. Of course, US equities are surging to new highs on this dismal news...



The full table breakdown:

Buit wait, there's more - from the Dallas Fed PR respondents:

Word count of weather in respondents: 7. To wit:

  • Our February business was affected by the weather
  • The extreme weather throughout the U.S. impacted our ability to receive components needed in our manufacturing process. Weather also impacted revenue, as customers are unable to deploy products, resulting in increased inventory in the distribution channels and reduced requirements for manufacturing.
  • Refinery activity slowed significantly due to the cold weather and the uncertain rhetoric coming from Washington and the EPA.
  • Weather has been a significant near-term factor in our business. We estimate a 5 to 10 percent revenue impact in both January and February at this point. We expect the major construction boom along the Gulf Coast (associated with new lower cost gas and gas liquids supplies) to begin to favorably impact our business in the second half of 2014.
  • We are getting information that the capital manufacturing businesses suffered a major slowdown due to the weather, transportation and materials problems.
  • Consumer activity is very strong, despite the horrible winter. We manufacture discretionary consumer goods sold through retailers and distributors. Our three largest resellers report retail sales (of our products) up 12 percent, 29 percent and 11 percent, respectively. Our number two customer reports sales trending up 54 percent in February. Weather will determine momentum. A long, bitter winter will negatively impact the spring selling season. We shall see.

To summarize: the weather is to blame - those heavy Dallas and Houston snowfalls - as usual.

But what about the future? Shouldn't that be rosy?

  • Expectations regarding future business conditions remained optimistic in February, although most indexes of future activity fell from their January levels

So more snowfall for Texas exected.

Source: Dallas Fed

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Jumbotron's picture

" Now....in other news.....WINTER IS GOING AWAY !!  "

Cursive's picture

Ctrl-P is the new wealth engine of global "growth."

Stoploss's picture


Do you not see the humor in this??????????

It's a fucking mocking of the global bad weather...

It is clearly stated that Texas can't get any supplies because the places in the north where we get them from are paralyzed by winter.

The last statement sums it up.  The next report will be determined by the ability of the north to get supplies to the south, not the other way around.

I see it says we're still spending, oh, shit, that must mean some of us are still working.

DavidC's picture

And the indices pop UP! POMO offsetting the figures?


papaswamp's picture

Wheels came off the company outlook bus.

nickels's picture

So, while we're waiting, whats the drunkest you've ever been and when did you realize it?

Dr. Engali's picture

Print bitch! Printing fixes everything.

machineh's picture

And deliver my freaking pony already.

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

...market bursts up 1% to new all time highs

ChargingHandle's picture

So we are at bad news is good news for stocks again? The Federal Reserve has fostered a market that celebrates detortiating conditions and rewards stock valuations with the prospects of the global economy failing. Oh this will end well. When will the cars tumble. May...Maybe June... Or will the "liquidity"  allow the world to keep its blinders on indefinitely? Can someone give me a real reason why equities are up this month? 

LawsofPhysics's picture

"Can someone give me a real reason why equities are up this month?" - Think about what those equities are priced in.

Sudden Debt's picture





Rising Sun's picture

Some say it's the weather, but the real reason is that Ben is a fucking asshole and Janet is a fat fucking cunt.


There.  Fixed it.

Flakmeister's picture

Just wait until Texas gets hit by the next El Nino...

They will be praying to be hit by a hurricane...