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Consumer Confidence Drops Most In 4 Months

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Despite fresh record highs for stocks, previously exuberant Conference Board consumer confidence was unable to make new highs and instead tumbled by the most in 4 months, missing expectations by the most since October.

 

This catches down to Bloomberg's less confident consumer and suggests the hopes and dreams of a nation looking for moar multiple expansion may be drifting away...

 

As we have noted previously  - this move in confidence is key...

But, it's all about confidence... investors will not be willing to pay increasing multiples unless they are confident that the future streams of earnings are sustainable and forecastable... And simply put, the current levels of Consumer Sentiment need to almost double for the US equity market tp approach historical multiple valuation levels...

 

 

[19]

 

and the cycle appears to be shifting...

Via Citi,

Is consumer confidence set to turn?

[20]

Consumer Confidence is once again following a dynamic where we see it move higher for 4 years and 4 months before beginning to collapse

  • Moves higher from 1996-2000 with a smaller dip halfway through in October 1998
  • Moves higher from 2003-2007 with a smaller dip hallway through in October 2005
  • Moves higher and so far tops out in June 2013. Also sees a small dip halfway through in October 2011.
 


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Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

My CONfidence in our current regime is at an all time high!

You hear that NSA and police state?  I'm on board!

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:22 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

consumer confidence is low?

then convene the presidents of 140 colleges.

tell them to admit more students who can't pay.

more here:

http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2014/01/15/president-obama-set-conven...

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/01/16/fact-sheet-preside...

http://chronicle.com/article/College-Leaders-Leave-White/144075/

let's work together to increase total student debt

 

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:37 | Link to Comment ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

wish these naysayers would quit trampling on my green shoots.  if thngs do get worse we can always blame them and their negative attitude.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:12 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

S&P service will be restored shortly.  Do not adjust your set.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Boston
Boston's picture

Let's not ignore the Richmond Fed index, which just collapsed to -6 on expectations of 3 (and well below the consensus range of 0 - 15). Not good.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Dude, that was so like... hours ago.  Things are better now.  The S&P told me so.  See?  Stocks are almost green again.  Rainbows and cotton candy and unicorns and - weeeeeee!!!!

Do I need to sarc this post?

 

 

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Boston
Boston's picture

No 'sarc' needed. The US Treasury market is my tell, and right now, it seems to be strongly disagreeing with the S&P.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Wait, consumers have confidence?

This should be good for +150 on the DJIA today

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

It's about all they have, because they certainly don't have any money.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Wait, consumers have confidence?

 

Wait, there are consumers?

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

obviously this explains why the Dow just halved its losses....

bullish indeed......

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Warrior85
Warrior85's picture

This is a sinking ship! I am glad that I have no long positions in the overvalued stockmarket right now. I make a lot of money with social trading. That way it doesn't matter which way the markets go.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:36 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

"I make a lot of money with social trading. That way it doesn't matter which way the markets go."

 

Advertising spiel.  No matter how much you try and polish it, it's still a turd.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:20 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

You can only stay unnaturally exuberant for so long. Sooner or later the energy required to fly in the face of reality and deny it exists takes its toll.

However this drop will be played off as a global SAD epidemic and as soon as the Spring weather starts, it will be all better.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:23 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

You can only stay unnaturally exuberant for so long. Sooner or later the energy required to fly in the face of reality and deny it exists takes its toll.

 

That's exactly the warning label printed on the back of cialis.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:28 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

LOL! Good one, Mayhem K. +1

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

It's also known in scientific circles as the Wile E. Coyote Principle.

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

They'll feel better when everybody buys a Tesla! ON CREDIT!!

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 I other news, all bitcoin pumpers on ZH have been deleted from the database as a

 Public Service

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 11:50 | Link to Comment skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

 those dumb-ass consumers holding down the stawx again, thought we could breach 1875 today,,,

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 12:19 | Link to Comment taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

Weird that the Jobs Plentiful minus Jobs Hard to Get seems to show improvement in job market. The difference in the 2 data rates correlates well with Unemployment Rate improvement.

Participation Rate has already shown that Unemployment Rate is useless and that US labor market is dead in the water.

They send out a Mail survey as opposed to phone calls, wonder of they are only getting responses from people that give a shit (i.e. have a job or haven't had trouble getting one).  They say they receive about 3,000 survey responses each month and I have asked if they have data on response rates.

 

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 12:56 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Not only consumer confidence!! And why not? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA-og8cVr3o

Tue, 02/25/2014 - 13:22 | Link to Comment Spungo
Spungo's picture

Fucking Ukraine. It's all Ukraine's fault confidence is down. They're slowing our recovery!

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