The Good, Bad, & Ugly Of The US Economy

Tyler Durden's picture

Sometimes one just needs to step back and think, as opposed to getting caught in the eye-twitching idiocy of the JPY-driven ticks in the US equity market day-in and day-out. The following 3 charts may just be that wake-up call that all is not quite as rosy as we are being told and that hope is not a strategy...


The Ugly - US Earnings Expectations have collapsed... (looks like more than a short-term weather thing, eh?)



The Bad - Short-Term US GDP Expectations have collapsed... (must be the weather, right?)


The Good - Medium-Term US GDP Expectations have soared... (what goes down, must bounce back up?)


Because there must always be hope that pent-up-demand, or magic unicorn tear sales will flourish and escape velocity (weather or no weather) will resume as per your local programming.

Do you believe in hockey-stick growth miracles?


h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

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HyBrasilian's picture

Are you sure those aren't BTC charts [except the last one]?... A little quality control here!

johnQpublic's picture

Do you believe in hockey-stick growth miracles?



not even for co2 or temperaures

debt maybe

stupidity defintely

HyBrasilian's picture
 “Well, I believe in the soul, the cock, the pussy, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap... I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter... I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days..."
NoDebt's picture

Bull Durham.  Still works.  

Shocker's picture

A little more than Hope is needed to correct this economy

Job Situation:


Thought Processor's picture


" Is there a problem Dave? "


Quote from HAL in the movie 2001.



tickhound's picture

Dave's not here, man.

Chong was quite the prophet too.

Oldwood's picture

That was just so they could hire some of them back to "create" even more jobs. Accounting used to be a balance sheet, debits in one column and assets in another. Today they won't even publish them on the same day, much less on the same page. Its all non-GAAP accounting in either column.

Oldwood's picture

Speaking of GAAP, generally accepted accounting principles. Does that mean that today's methodologies are now the New Generally Accepted Accounting Principles? Well, are the generally accepted, or not?

Ban KKiller's picture

Two plus two is five. That is acceptable now. New GAAP means you make up the numbers as needed. Oh, you can always "revise" later to cover your misses. 

Wish I were being sarcastic. 

TeamDepends's picture

Hope is not a strategy, but it is a pacifier.

NEOSERF's picture

Hockey sticks are for fairies...we now use flagpoles...

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Could we have separate charts of the top 20% (the "fittest" members of society) and the bottom 80% (the worthless scum losers who should get a goddamn job and stop complaining about the best country in the goddamn world).

It's pointless to blend the two nations together.    We don't combine Canada with the US. 

johnQpublic's picture

The North American Union (NAU) is a theoretical economic and political union of Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The concept is loosely based on the European Union, occasionally including a common currency called the Amero




pods's picture

Okay, you earned a greenie. That was pretty good.


Dr. Engali's picture

The recovery is just around the corner.... corner....... corner.........  

HyBrasilian's picture

3 'lefts' make a 'right'... [jus sayin']

krispkritter's picture

What is this crap?  We're in a Recovery!  Look! The government has plenty of money to spend:    Cloud computing costs for more than quintuple original estimates

pods's picture

If there is one thing that the government is really fucking good at, it is low balling cost estimates.

I mean, they cannot even make it out past the end of current congress until their estimates fall apart. That is trouble.


medium giraffe's picture

Tyler, bottom one is upside down dude.  Wait...    WHAT?!

GS-DickinDaMuppets's picture

The good, the bad, and the ugly -WTF.....

1) 8 high ranking bankers commit suicide - what did they know that we don't, that scared them so bad they took their own lives?

2) Gold price takes off and UP - Why? What caused the TPTB to let the price rise all of a sudden out of the clear blue yonder?

3) the Equities (Stock) market is sky high (over valued to the max) and the REAL economy is in the dumpster and has been since 2008.  Trading volume is at all time lows - just who is "FOOLING" who?

If you know the answers to these questions, then you know how to protect your financial well-being...if you don't know the answers - you are just pissing in the wind and getting real wet.

IridiumRebel's picture

8 high ranking bankers TO BE suicideD


TheRideNeverEnds's picture

there are two possibilities here,

things get better as we keep printing money = bullish

things get worse and we increase the money printing = super bullish


just buy everything; you can't lose.


we have solved the problem of the business cycle, we just print our way to prosperity while using mark to fantasy accounting.  


its all so simple why did nobody think of this earlier?  

Yen Cross's picture

  As much as I enjoy the charts Tyler, one has only to look at the 'Macro Economics Calendar' during the last couple of weeks to see the magnitude of this shit show we call the "Stock Market."

IridiumRebel's picture

Can I do the Michael Snyder post for the day please? 


percyklein's picture

Whoever the hell came up with "green shoots" is a genius. What a winner of a term!  Should have gotten a Nobel for that. 

ptoemmes's picture

Rounding out Winter with snow, sleet, and ice we will roll into Spring with floods and tornadoes then on to...


RaceToTheBottom's picture

Stock market boom:  Exceeding decreasing expectations

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

After attending my husbands yearly corporate meeting and witnessing the stress on this company to stay viable in the coming years and seeing my own Healthcare sector in a free fall tailspin, I know ANYONE uttering the word recovery is an absolute fool! His meeting always had the feel of " ok, we kinda blew it here but this area did really well so things balanced out". There always was an aura of "Rah, Rah lets get some momentum for next year!" Now looking at their sales graphs, revenue, projected incomes and future growth opportunities, I'm shocked. This is a global company,very fiscally conservative and the concern was palpable. Growth was down 90% from last year. They had a tough time downplaying it.

At some point this government is going to have a difficult time spinning this shitty economy. For god sakes, how stupid and unaware does one have to be not to see this? Both of us are middle class wage earners and our industries are in Full Code Blue!


NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Both of us are middle class wage earners

I think I've spotted your problem.

This is a suvival of the fittest society,  so those in "the middle" obviously don't make-the-grade.

However, if you're in the top 10%, we'll things are going pretty good.   That's 30 million people doing really really well.        

TheReplacement's picture

What was that?  My iThingy made my leg tingle.

RKDS's picture

Just got my pink slip today.

Honestly, I don't think it's always the economy in abstract.  Alot of businesses are just run really stupidly.  For instance, the one I used to work for had an in-house software system that worked pretty well as far as I could see.  So of course it had to be replaced with something new and expensive!  They bought an Oracle enterprise solution that never worked and pissed millions down the drain in the process.  Determined not to learn anything from it, they bought a Microsoft enterprise solution and went through the motions.  Pissed away about a year before I was hired (for programming, no mention of ERP), then a few more months with nothing for me to do (tried to warn them about what I was seeing), and then suddenly got upset about how I wasn't productive.  Gee, ya think?  I wish they'd go under but the fact is that businesses of a certain size almost never go under no matter how screwed up they are.

The worst trader's picture

Um, didn't Barrons report that US GPD could be 4%? I think this is all wrong BTFD, aw fuck it just buy TESLA!

The worst trader's picture

Um, didn't Barrons report that US GPD could be 4%? I think this is all wrong BTFD, aw fuck it just buy TESLA!

Dead Man Walking's picture

too bad the economy sucks.  Good thing the economy has nothing to do with the market.  Never did, Never will.

dirtbagger's picture

The author is familiar with the old trick of extending the x-axis and compressing the y-axis to make it look like the chart line look like a collapse.   A Little more honesty in the scaling and the data would just look like a little blip on the chart.   Where does ZH find these clowns - on page 23 of the Zimbabwe Business News?

TruthDecalscom's picture

Early 2013 when the "New way to calculate GDP" i.e. adding R&D and a slew of other BS additives to boost the number by 2.5 to 3%... Why is it not mentioned when discussing the GDP?