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On The Roads Into The Crimea, The Quiet Russian Mobilization Continues

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Not a day passes without a YouTube clip being released showing some colonnade of Russian vehicles headed into the Ukraine, and specifically into the Crimea, where the Russian base of Sevastopol is located, and where the biggest pro-Russian support groups are to be found. Today, we show the following Youtube clip taken recently with a dashcam, several miles above the port of Novorossiysk near the village of Gaiduk, which shows Russian vehicles carrying assorted military equipment being carried toward the Crimean.

The clip's author adds that "each day new transports head into the Ukraine." Of course, now that Russia officially declared a massive military drill, there is an explanation for such sitings: it is all practice.

 

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Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:11 | 4479982 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

It may surprise you, but when it comes to penis dueling, Obama has a reputation for being the best.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:19 | 4480018 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Only when he is duelling with reggie love. 

Barry always loses when penis duelling with his fat-assed wife.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:57 | 4480175 verbot
verbot's picture

i hear there are folk who use a.....oh whats that called?...women take a fake u know what and affix it with some type of system??.. and thats as far as i will say in public.....lol....

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:10 | 4480256 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

Neither does Europe.

350 million people vs. 140 million.

Cowards all of the EU.

Largest economy in the world, larger than China or USA.

5 or 6 times the size of Russia...cowering in fear.

Europeans are useless and won't even stand for their own values.

Russia is willing to risk conflict, why not Europe? Russia lost more last time around.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:02 | 4480484 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

 

 

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:09 | 4480547 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Leraconteur;

'Why can't we all just get along?'

Yet we spend billions of USSA tax dollars on military bases all over Europe and Great Britain.

With today's technology all they are is target practice.

 

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 10:47 | 4479880 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

Obvious downvote bot is obvious.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 10:47 | 4479882 Salah
Salah's picture

RUSSIA HAS ALWAYS COVETED THE CRIMEA, LETS 'EM CONTROL THE BLACK SEA, PUT THE SQUEEZE ON THEIR HISTORIC ENEMIES THE TURKS, BUILD MORE LNG PORTS & WARM WEATHER RESORTS FOR ARABS IN THE LEVANT.  HEY, WHAT'S NOT TO LIKE?, THE WHOLE CRIMEA IS LARGELY RUSSIAN ANYWAY.  TAKING OVER THE UKRAINE IS SOOOOOOO EXPENSIVE AND THOSE UKRAINIANS ARE SOOOOOO DEPENDABLE.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:09 | 4480248 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Read up on the Crimean War.  E.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_war

The specifics of the war don't matter so much for today's setting.  The point is, that alliances are stronger than going it alone.  The motives are also different, in a petrol-backed global currency that can "pay" for supplies, labor (armies, weapons, supplies) by spreading the cost to the rest of the planet that is forced to used said currency.

There is NO question that Russia can take over the strategic bits of Ukraine, but they need to front-run any planned or reactive moves from "NATO & Friends".  Their real war starts and ends with PR, i.e. driving the talking points in the MSM.  Not convinced that they are dedicated or sophisticated enough to do that yet.  They also need to keep certain players in the region as neutral.  Additionally, to mess with the Pipeline Wars, they may want to create a Green Revolution in Georgia, if possible.  The Chinese need to be part of this also (in their own way), to make sure that America's distaste for wars keeps Barry from engaging in one.

It comes down to a crafty mix of massive PR (Neo-Nazis, Antisemitism, Terrorism, Security Interest on its borders and region), Economics, Currency Games/Wars (gold-backed currency), arm twisting & long-term deals, manufactured uprisings, selective but overwhelming & decisive, surgical military action.  All of which needs to be well timed and executed.  VERY complex, dynamic, fluid.  No "magic bullets" here, as simpletons like to believe.

Mike Tyson's famous quote "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face" holds true for all sides.  Aggressor beware.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:16 | 4480586 nowhereman
nowhereman's picture

Wasn't it not long ago that the Saudis bragged that they control the terrorists in southern Russia?  And weren't they mightily pissed that Putin wouldn't let them start a war in Syria to get at Iran? 

Next thing you know Ukraine starts to experience violent protests based on ethnic and religious group differences, disguised as pro and anti EU. 

It seems all to obvious the Saudis are involved in this, but no-one seems to be looking in that direction.  I wonder why that is?

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:45 | 4480740 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

Nice analysis.  Agree with both of you. 

 

Perhaps we should expect some 'terrist' events in Ukraine soon.   With masked fingerprints of Saudi/CIA et all.

I suspect it would serve as a warning of sorts to scare people and maybe Russia as well.  

I'll say this though- Ukrainians are some tough ass people.  Hope they can create thier own Indy Gov. from here on out.

Peace.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 10:49 | 4479890 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

NATO isn't going to tangle with Ivan over the Crimea and East Ukraine which would be the only places Putin would send troops.  And at the invitation of much, probably most of the population.

Then he can sit and watch as the EU puppet government in western Ukraine starts violently repressing the secondary protests they are sure to get.

Meanwhile, NATO might view this as a good time to ratchet things up in Syria, on the road to Tehran.

For freedoms.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:02 | 4480196 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I expect the NWO/EU/USSA/IMF puppet govt will then start suppressing the Ukrainian people.  Will the Ukrainians and army types then start to take on the NWO paramilitaries or will they all go down the road quietly to Greece debt serrfdom.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:06 | 4480227 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

...as compared to the Russian puppet government in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea?

Do you even READ your own bullshit, Spetsnaz trainee posting from Russia? 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 10:55 | 4479894 Dr. Bonzo
Dr. Bonzo's picture

Said so repeatedly. Ukraine isn't going anywhere. A pro-western Europeanized gov't within walking distance of the Motherland just ain't gonna happen.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 10:56 | 4479917 Dr. Bonzo
Dr. Bonzo's picture

Niiiiiiiice. Got a downvote before I even finished typing. LMFAO. Yeah, that's gonna shut me up. Fucking turd.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:59 | 4480507 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

"A pro-western Europeanized gov't within walking distance of the Motherland just ain't gonna happen." 

I agree. Just imagine the political histrionics in the US if Russia decided to get involved in Mexico's internal affairs.

 

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 10:56 | 4479916 marriedgeordie
marriedgeordie's picture

First of all, guys, anyone using THE in front of Ukraine has NO idea what he/she is talking about, as he/she is even unaware that it is no longer a convention to use the definite article in front of this country's name. It's Ukraine, period, no fucking THE.

Second, about Crimea. There are tatars, and they are for keeping Ukraine together. Of course if Putin wants himself another Chechnya, he's very much fucking welcome. Also, Putin forgot that Russia signed Budapest memo in the 1990s (I believe he was stealing money from the St.Petersburg's city budget at the time). A reminder: Ukraine gave up its nukes in return for the US, the UK, and Russia guaranteeing the country's territorial integrity.

If Russia acts in any way, we can forget about ANY country voluntarily giving up their nukes in the next 100 years or so. Oh, and there is still a US navy ship with some missiles and marines on board floating around the Black Sea.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:06 | 4479949 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

deleted

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:13 | 4480000 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Wow, one Navy ship, a few marines, and some lesbian sailors is gonna conquer the whole Russian Stepp.

Rock on brother.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:47 | 4480129 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

ROFL, P.E., you're on a fucking roll today man!

Never underestimate the power of a Pall Mall smokin, tattoo'd bull dyke with the fuse on her tampon lit.  They'll picket your house with paper mache head puppets and candlelight vigils, breeder.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:13 | 4480576 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Isn't that US navy ship stuck on a sandbar?

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:17 | 4480594 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Marriedgeordie

Crap! I didn't realize my English Teacher Grandmother was reading ZH - Sorry Grandma!

 

The problem is our current skirt in chief cannot make a decision and will not engage any nation including Mexico's drug runners. Maybe in our next election the rest of the free world will not support a communist for Commander in Chief. Maybe.

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 23:55 | 4483400 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

It's really dishonest to conceal this fact:

Russia let Eastern European countries (e. g. East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, etc) and former Soviet republics (e. g. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, etc) to gain independence PEACEFULLY in exchange for the West's GUARANTEES that NATO will NOT BE EXPANDED EASTWARDS.

What happened soon thereafter? Some ZATO supporters seem to be forgetting this fact.

 

Go Russia go, to allow all of these farces happen in front of your faces without REAL responses are terrible humiliations!

 

And do not give away the Syria to the Rotten Tribes, allowing them to realize their Grand Chessboard strategies!!

 

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle." - Edmund Burke

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:00 | 4479937 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Coming up... Fort Sumter part deux.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:11 | 4479940 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

They need to take the ENTIRE coastline, to prevent oil and gas tankers from being used to circumvent the Russian pipelines.

Keep in mind that this is a new* Cold War over Energy Supply lines, i.e. Pipelines.  But even deeper than this, it is about FIAT CURRENCIES, backed by oil (PETRO-DOLLAR).  The US/Fed cannot allow Russia and Central Asia to supply the EU and Eurasia with own oil and Natgas, as Natgas is not (yet) priced in USDs and creates a Substitution effect for oil, and thus threatens the King Dollar hegemony/Ponzi.

The Fed has been funneling its fiat QE into the EU, who in turn gift/loan it to the PIIGS --> UPIIGS (where U=Ukraine).

* Same old war, but renewed.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:19 | 4480012 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You grossly overestimate the substitution effect...

And last time I looked Eurasian hydrocarbon flows are basically directed westward via pipeline

80% of oil flows and essentially 100% of NG are exported via pipeline...

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:45 | 4480428 samsara
samsara's picture

Flak

Good one to read.   North Sea / Shell Oil  = Dead

Debt Rattle Feb 25 2014: (Bomb)Shell

 

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/debt-rattle-feb-25-2014-bombshell/

 

Production in the region has fallen by 38% over the last three years and hit a low of 1.4 million barrels of oil and gas last year

In 2015, Shell will pay more in dividend than it generates in cash!

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:21 | 4480617 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep, did you see this?

http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/events-calendar/global-oil-market-forec...

The slides are also available there

An hour well spent by any student of the oil paradigm...

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 00:44 | 4483490 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Re: your link

Meant to mention Euan does very good work, and this is no exception...

The UK is about to enter a world of hurt...

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:23 | 4480631 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There were those of us who saw this coming years ago....

The UKs share of the North Sea hydrocarbon spoils has been in terminal decline for a long time...

Open your eyes

http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/

and select the UK....

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:29 | 4480144 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Gas is priced indexed against oil in almost all major markets. Only 2 markets I can think of that are not priced indexed is US natural gas and the Russians have an agreement with the Brits to not price index gas against oil. It is priced based on futures contracts I believe.

They can't control price the old fashioned central planning way by choking supply to influence price with gas so they index it instead. The bigger issue is who's oil and who's currency is the gas indexed and priced against. That is why it is crucial to get ME gas into the system and the only option they have is the Nabucco right now. Taking the Ukraine and raping them of their resources to send it back into Nato won't be enough to compete by itself against Russian gas and oil. They need to Aphrodite gas field aka Cyprus and Turkey to come online also with the Ukraine gas being siphoned away for pennies of the dollars to influence overall pricing. Price high, price low, real price = average price.

The danger to all parties is too many shale oil fields being found so the only way to maintain dominance as oil dies is to backdoor every country with resources to keep them repressed and able to sell on the market unless they control the supply and flow. Same as old game as the money and oil game. Supply side centrally controlled economics sabotaging any semblemce of a free demand driven pricing based market which always allocates resources more efficiently for the collective as whole when the collective decides not a few assholes choking the supply at a whim with no consequences for destruction it ultimately causes. This usually happens once the control freaks act like the rules don't apply to them and no equivalence can be used to keep the playing field level between the moar equal vs everyone else.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:01 | 4480517 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

+1 for quality feedback/input.

BTW, suggest people search for "maps of eurasian pipelines", to get the real "picture".  Very educational.  Enjoy.

E.g. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=maps+of+eurasian+energy+pipelines (if you like to avoid Google etc, try DuckGoGo as a search engine, and note the "s" in https).

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:05 | 4479955 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

sorry, but if anyone thinks that Obummer's vision extends beynd the 2014 election, they haven't been paying attention.   Some reporter should ask him to spell "Ukraine".

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:52 | 4480469 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

" Some reporter should ask him to spell "Ukraine"."

I would like to see him locate the country on a map. I seriously doubt if he could find the US on a globe without help from his "minders".

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:07 | 4480544 superflex
superflex's picture

Some reporter should ask him to spell "Ukraine".

"Uhh E-U-uhh-K-R-A-N-E"


Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:11 | 4479980 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Maybe Ukraine has homeless puppies that we can gather up?

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:32 | 4480035 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

Kulaks 2.0

It's the regular folks who will pay for all this outside interference/meddling...again.

 

the Bolshevik revolution actually was financed by wealthy financiers in London and New York.

 

"Dee-lighted"

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:10 | 4480261 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I wonder if the Ukrianians know that the same people from the USSA, UK and Europe are back to make them slaves.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:36 | 4480081 no1wonder
no1wonder's picture

Putin orders ‘combat readiness’ tests for western, central Russian troops

150,000 troops, 90 aircraft, over 120 helicopters, 880 tanks and 1,200 pieces of military hardware will be involved in the drills, deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said Wednesday.

As part of the test, several drills will be held on Russian borders with other countries, including with Ukraine. The main purpose of these drills is to check the combat readiness of the Russian armed forces, Sergey Shoigu, Russia’s Defense Minister said.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:37 | 4480085 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Putin is going to fuck Obomb in the ass, Deliverance style. Squeal like a pig, half nig.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:41 | 4480103 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Bath house barry would like nothing more than to have putin show him how they do it russia style.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:38 | 4480088 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

 Novorossiysk is "City 17" in the game Half-Life 2.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:40 | 4480097 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

The Bear's hibernation is over.  My bet is Putin isn't going to put up with the West and Obongo's shit anymore.

Part of the EU deal was to have NATO troops in Ukraine.  Like Vlad was going to let that happen.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:46 | 4480123 DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

Meh. By this logic the hibernation was over when Putin organized the Moscow bombings to justify crushing the Chechens, which in turn made him popular enough to become the president. Putin knows his trade.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:43 | 4480109 A. Buttle
A. Buttle's picture

Cue the drones! And "Flight of the Bumblebees". And the DU.

Bathhouse promises to shower those world citizens with rainbow skittle flavored condoms and bend over for the Shirtless One. Remember, the goal is to have no borders anywhere, one currency everywhere, and the Eye of Sauron in the sky.

'What a country!' 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:45 | 4480113 spellbound
spellbound's picture

Everyone says Barry this and Barry that...as if he is the one who actually sets any policy or decides ANYTHING!!!!

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:47 | 4480134 valkir
valkir's picture

You can see,how warm are "welcomed"in Kerch/east crimea/some messengers from Kiev

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_h_bRyNxYCM

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:48 | 4480440 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Since I speak/read neither Russian nor Ukranian, I have no idea what is actually going on in that clip. However, one thing I can see clearly, is how repectfully the security personnel treat the protestors in the video. If that was a western country, the protestors would have been violently assaulted with tear gas, tasers, and physical force at the very least. Now tell me again whose society enjoys the greater freedom?

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:24 | 4480635 Debugas
Debugas's picture

some activists from the western ukrain have come to the eastern ukrain city of Kerch and tried to organize a meeting

locals called them fascists and that they "have no right to stay here"

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:48 | 4480137 spellbound
spellbound's picture

I distinctly saw tanks in the clip. Are they just going to march back without firing a single shot? Does that ever happen?

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 11:58 | 4480182 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

Before the WWII Germany and its government, SS and secret services were to ones who planned and achieved the split of Czechoslovakia. Everything was done with agreement from UK, France and the rest. Now I can see US gov with CIA and NSA and their puppets in EU doing similar stuff in Europe again. With a Nobel price winners on both sides (you remember in 2012 EU/Brusels assholes got it, do you).

It's fucking unbelievable.

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:00 | 4480190 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

Russian tanks, 18 I counted, on flatbed trucks, invading a sovereign nation.

No, nothing wrong with this. It isn't as though Ukraine is another country or anything.

Imagine if Chinese tanks were beng trucked into Northern Vietnam.

Oh, but that is different.../sarc

Anyone else think that the comment threads here are being run by Spetsnaz trainees?

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:23 | 4480325 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

useless talkings

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:56 | 4480409 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

"Imagine if Chinese tanks were beng trucked into Northern Vietnam.

Oh, but that is different.../sarc"

That IS different. Please name the location of any Chinese military bases located in Veitnam. Oh, right, there aren't any. Russia pays Ukraine $97.85 million per year rent for it's naval base at Sevastopol. Why are you agitating against the sovereign nation of Russia? Who do you work for?

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 15:20 | 4481265 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

"Why are you agitating against the sovereign nation of Russia?"

Sovereign nation of Russia? That's not Ukraine. Renting space does not entitle one to seize or invade or claim sovereignty over said rented space.

Why is Russia agitating against the sovereign nation of Ukraine?

Oh, but it's different for Russia. They aren't agitating against the sovereign nation of Ukraine, not at all.

Your forum disruption methods have been spotted. I won't post the lengthy list of techniques you and others have taped by your monitor.

I don't think any of the pro-Russian posters here are NOT on the Kremlin payroll.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 01:36 | 4483570 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

In all honesty, nobody gives a shit about what you think.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 03:11 | 4483661 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

@ Leraconteur

"I don't think any of the pro-Russian posters here are NOT on the Kremlin payroll."

 

FUCK OFF THE OLIGARCHY. FUCK OFF THE CFR AND ITS 3-LETTER AGENCIES. FUCK OFF THE GRAND CHESSBOARD. FUCK OFF THE FED, THE CARTELS, AND THE LIZARDS....

 

ANYONE has the courage to stand up against the armies of Babylonian Marduk should get our firm support!!!

 

You need to toil harder, get back to tell your paymaster to improve their propagandas... not good enough here at ZH... lol

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 05:23 | 4483742 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

..and your posts aren't Russian paymaster propaganda? The Russians aren't Oligarchs? Get a grip on reality!

Russia is not Ukraine. If you are so biased that you cannot see that they are distinct and separate countries, then there is no intellectual hope for your brand of stupid.

Almost all of you are making the case that Russia has a right to invade, by force, another sovereign nation.

There aren't troops massing on the Polish border for the EU/UK/USA to invade, but it is just fine for Russia to do the same when Poland/EU borders Ukraine and is within its regional security issues as well.

Your pathetic excuses and bias are intellectually dishonest and I am firmly convinced that nearly all of the pro-Russian comments, and the huge downvotes to my comments, are the result of paid Russian trolls.

I live in China. I see fascism and dissemblement on an hourly basis, and you guys are simply full of shit.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 05:27 | 4483747 satoshi123
satoshi123's picture

Selective Amnesia is deep on ZH.

Let's recall the facts.

HILLARY/LURCH spent $5 Billion USD to de-stabilize UKRAINE, and PUTIN has now announced he will quit giving them $5B/year.

Israel needs EURO's as insurnance to keep them afloat post USD collapse, so Israel wanted UKRAINE so they can sell Saudi Heating oil to europe, and Israel/Saudi are siamese twins.

None of this has a FUCKING THING to do with Russia.

UKRAINE has already split in TWO, and east went to RUSSIA, and the WEST will be sucking on the USA tit for $35 billion/year, when the FSA of WEST-UKRAINE suck the EU/USA(AIPAC) tit dry, then they will go back to RUSSIA for fresh milk.

 

End of story.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 10:16 | 4484198 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Get you facts straight...

The State Dept. spent $5 billion over 23 years...

Rougly $5 a year per Ukrainian... 

Not exactly earth shaking...

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:16 | 4480587 superflex
superflex's picture

Russian tanks, 18 I counted, on flatbed trucks, invading a sovereign nation.

Hey Copernicus, the convoy is still in Russia.  No troops or equipment has crossed the Russian/Ukrainian border.  That would require them to be in Kerch and not Novorossyisk.

The pics from yesterday were the BTR-80's unloaded from the transport ship in Russia's military base in Sevastopol.

I guess under your logic, those F-35s at Rammstein AFB constitute an invasion of Germany by Amerikkka.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 18:14 | 4482220 Brit_Abroad
Brit_Abroad's picture

Sorry I don't think they were tanks at all.

More like BMP-2's or 3's

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:22 | 4480319 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

they should strap a suicide vest onto mCinsane and have him run at one of those tanks

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:36 | 4480389 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

I think Russia has made it inescapably clear at this point that they will take Crimea and perhaps the whole of the eastern Ukraine by force if necessary. 

but are we seeing the next Cuban missile crises unfold, will this develop into a game of nuclear chicken between Russia and the west? or more to the point, is Washington and western Europe willing to commit the amount of resources, treasure and blood that will be needed to wrest control of the east from mother Russia when clearly their new allies in Kiev will not be able to do so on their own?

this could be it, the last straw, the spark that plunges us into a new and major war. then again there is the chance that the western powers may be willing to accept a new, divided Ukraine, especially now that Russia is showing all sings that they have no intention of blinking over this.

consider that a war with Russia over the Ukraine would be impossible to sell here in America, so much like Syria, DC would have to try to work this with minimal or zero public support and lots of public protest. the public opposition to such a war would be far stronger, more vocal and active in this case because of the potential for large scale loss of life over a country that many Americans didn't even know existed until a month ago. unlike Syria, a few cruise missiles fired from the safety of ships hundreds of miles out to sea will not be enough to get the job done, so while labeling Assad a brutal dictator, accusing him of using chemical weapons and mass starvation may be enough to keep the public compliant with , if not supportive of military intervention in Syria, Russia obviously is a different beast altogether.

the EU is simply in no position to take on Russia in this matter, with the possible exception of a united Germany, UK and France, the EU doesn't have the Military power beyond nuclear to pose a sufficient threat to Moscow. with Russia halving the gas trump card to play what are the chances that European powers will unite to go to war with Russia over the eastern part of the Ukraine?

I could be wrong here, maybe the mentally ill, delusional sociopaths in DC and Brussels are willing to risk a catastrophic confrontation with a nuclear armed power right on the Bear's front door in an attempt to fulfill there small minded masters of the universe fantasies.

but I hope not, because in the long, sad history of bad ideas, that would have rate right up their with the worst.         

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:48 | 4480443 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

consider that a war with Russia over the Ukraine would be impossible to sell here in America

Impossible is a very strong word.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:50 | 4480462 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

At some point, I would love to hear your take on this

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-26/putin-launches-military-drill-w...

No rush...

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:07 | 4480551 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I am not very insightful in regards to geo-politics.

What has stuck out to me in the last week is the "US to reduce military spending" meme being spread while at the same time Russia is pissed off over a likely, at least partially, Western engineered coup in Ukraine. Prior, we had a month of constant Western propaganda on how shitty Sochi is, how incompetent Russia is, and how much they hate gays.

All of this shortly after the US was stymied in Syria.

Empires don't voluntarily reduce their military. I've also said for years that we'll know the Empire is waning when the soldiers start coming home.

I can't put it all together, but since Syria, I've felt like something is fundamentally changing.

Sorry, I got nuthin'.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:09 | 4480562 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"...Germany, UK and France..."

three completely different points of view in terms of realpolitik

France does not need Russian gas, it has plenty of LNG ports for deliveries from the Gulf. Syria was a different matter altogether

Germany does not want any kind of serious conflict with it's most important trading partner

sorry, but the whole concept of NATO enlargement started as a US-UK idea, and if you mention Brussels you have to mention that it's the new eastern EU peers that are bringing in fresh Russia-skepsis in the fray. particularly Poland

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:40 | 4480662 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Zackly, can you fault Ukrainians for looking at Poland and saying "Why the fuck can't I have some of that"

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/gdp-per-capita-ppp

vs

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/poland/gdp-per-capita-ppp

After all the Ukraine was always seen as the prize piece of "The Heartland"....

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 16:45 | 4481730 Volkodav
Volkodav's picture

Now compare the debt per country..

I think there was something about  pensions also.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-06/poland-confiscates-half-private-pension-funds-cut-sovereign-debt-loads

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 17:15 | 4481939 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well, don't you think it is up to the Ukranians to decide what is best for them?

Or are you telling me that you know what is best for the Ukraine?

Perhaps Putin should fund an ad campaign to set them straight. What do you think?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 04:33 | 4483721 Freddie
Freddie's picture

By 2016, Russia will be the biggest market for autos in Europe and will surpass Germany.  Germany sells and manufactures a lot of cars in Russia.  I think they generally have a pretty good relationship.

The Ukraine could cause a major problem.  This is why that evil bitch Nuland said F the EU.  I don't think Germany wants this.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:54 | 4480476 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

 

Little BTR, you're really lookin' fine
Three deuces and a four-speed and a 389
Listen to her tachin' up now, listen to her why-ee-eye-ine
C'mon and turn it on, wind it up, blow it out BTR

Wa-wa, (mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR") wa, wa, wa, wa, wa, wa
(mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR")
Wa-wa, (mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR") wa, wa, wa, wa, wa, wa
(mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR")
Wa-wa (mixed with "Ahhh, little BTR") wa, wa, wa, wa, wa, wa

You oughta see her on a road course or a quarter mile
This little modified Pon-Pon has got plenty of style
She beats the gassers and the rail jobs, really drives 'em why-ee-eye-ild
C'mon and turn it on, wind it up, blow it out BTR

Wa-wa, (mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR") wa, wa, wa, wa, wa, wa
(mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR")
Wa-wa, (mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR") wa, wa, wa, wa, wa, wa
(mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR")
Wa-wa (mixed with "Ahhh, little BTR") wa, wa, wa, wa, wa, wa

Gonna save all my money (turnin' it on, blowin' it out) and buy a BTR (turnin' it on,
blowin' it out)
Get a helmet and a roll bar (turnin' it on, blowin' it out) and I'll be ready to go
(turnin' it on, blowin' it out)
Take it out to Pomona (turnin' it on, blowin' it out) and let 'em know (turnin' it on,
blowin' it out), yeah, yeah
That I'm the coolest thing around
Little buddy, gonna shut you down
When I turn it on, wind it up, blow it out BTR

Wa-wa, (mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR") wa, wa, wa, wa, wa, wa
(mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR")
Wa-wa, (mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR") wa, wa, wa, wa, wa, wa
(mixed with "Yeah, yeah, little BTR")
Wa-wa (mixed with "Ahhh, little BTR") wa, wa, wa, wa, wa, wa

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_FSicQWimU

Ronny and the Daytonas - GTO.

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 12:57 | 4480494 gosh
gosh's picture

John Titor predicted this.  In 2001 he said, "The attack on Europe is in response to a unified European army that masses and moves East from
Germany."

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:55 | 4480787 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

+1 for the Titor reference.  

 

 

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:14 | 4480578 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

If not for the Olympics, Russian tanks would have rolled into Kiev by now.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:17 | 4480592 Essential Intel...
Essential Intelligence's picture

There is no way that President Vladimir Putin will relinquish Russian control of the Crimean peninsula and its military bases there – or more particularly the big Black Sea naval base at Sevastopol. This military stronghold is the key to Russia’s Middle East policy. If it is imperiled, so too are Russia’s military posture in Syria and its strategic understandings with Iran. DETAILS HERE

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:31 | 4480676 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Absolutely, no one disputes this, and for that reason it will be graciously ceded to Russia in any diplmatic settlement of the crises...

Putin will be given every oppurtunity to save face....

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:19 | 4480609 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

WASHINGTON - The United States is urging the former Soviet republic of Georgia to further integrate with Europe and NATO. The U.S. is also renewing demands that Russia withdraw troops from disputed enclaves it now occupies there. The call comes amid growing tensions between Russia and the West over the ouster of a pro-Moscow president in Ukraine, another former Soviet republic.

Secretary of State John Kerry insisted Wednesday that U.S. policy toward the states that once made up the Soviet Union is not aimed at reducing Russia's influence in its neighbourhood. Instead, he said it is driven by America's desire to see them succeed as robust democracies with strong economies.

Kerry said the U.S. supports Georgia's membership in NATO and wants to see it sign a partnership agreement with the European Union later this year.

Georgia PM is headed to Washington.  The US/NATO will likely amp things up in Syria, and count on the Israelis to take the opportunity to bomb Lebanon and/or Syria and bulldoze some more Arab homes in E. Jerusalem and the WB.  Maybe they'll go ahead and drop some more white phosphorus and DU munitions on the civilians of Gaza. Unfortunately for the people of Gaza, it is antisemitic to feel sorry for them when they are blown up by American bullt and paid for jets and attack choppers.

 

Assuming Ukraine, or a large portion thereof, is folded into the EU, does this make the EU stronger, or weaker?

Who's shorting the Euro? 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:38 | 4480702 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You can run but you can't hide....

Lets look at your latest statement re: the Holocaust

6 million was reported before WWII even got started. 

Taken from here

Would like to explain to us all exactly where it was reported?

And you still haven't addressed the question put to you, you know the one...

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:52 | 4480766 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

I already told you that until you respond to the query put to you, I would not entertain your continued evasions.  You refused and still refuse to tender an answer.  Anyone not irritated to death by your continued threadjacking can examine the record themselves, if inclined. 

You lost the argument by forfeit, Flake. 

Now you're just being a sore [and dishonest] loser.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 14:07 | 4480828 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Zzzzz.. same bullshit but at least you have enough sense to stop calling me a cunt....

Please provide a quote where I have been dishonest? Go ahead... Surprise us all...

I will gladly answer your question when you answer mine first.  Would you like for me to post the timestamps? After all, this is now a matter in the public record...

And after that, maybe you can address the second question related to the above quote...

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 15:29 | 4481301 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Whats the matter Johnny? Do the boys play too rough for you at the Hedge?

Did Johnny learn that free speech also means that you have to be accountable for what you say? 

I can only hope that you have left us for good...

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 18:52 | 4482370 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

as noted, Mr. Threadjacker, you still haven't responded, despite multiple inane replies on your part, to the query or queries posed to you hours ago

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-26/putin-launches-military-drill-w...

 

As recently noted, I know you will reply to this or my prior reply a minute or three ago, but still refuse to respond to 4479786.

You won't, because you are not smart enough to respond in any reasonable way. 

I can only hope you will try to conjure up a reply to me, as requested... it's more fun than 'winning' by forfeit.

 

You don't play rough, Flake, and you cry and shit your pants when others do. 

 

Surprise me with a response. I could use a good laugh in the morning.

 

 

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 19:38 | 4482524 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yawn.....

So, tell me them how much Jews died in the Holocaust? You seem to have a mastery of the numbers, it should be very simple for an "expert" so well versed in the topic....

Very simple question, really...

BTW, unlike you I have made no claims.... None, nada....

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:25 | 4480645 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Maybe now would be a good time to announce troop reductions in the U.S.  and have a clown named Chuck Hagel in charge.  Nah.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 15:00 | 4480695 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

You ever think for a second the timing of this on purpose to get people to scream we need moar military to keep us safe and make it look like it was the people's will to increase the DOD spending 10 fold after 2014 once the midterms play out. You ever think that this is nothing more the NeoCon/MIC complex head of the 2 headed R/D Hydra dog training the human fidos to want moar security and safety and in turn less freedom by announcing they are going cut it as things get hot.

Typical scare tactics come next with the volume turned up to 11 in controlled media outlets like Faux news.

Bruce Dickenson screaming we need moar cowbell coming up in 3,2......

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:41 | 4480713 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

It would be a good time.

Ukraine has fuckall to do with the national security of the United States.

And we don't need hundreds of bases around the world. We don't need troops in Korea or Japan or Germany.  And for that matter we don't need the Executive Branch Army that DHS/ATF/FEMA/DEA has become. Nor do we need small town cops with tactical gear and APCs.  It is a tremendous misallocation of resources, and rape of the taxpayers.

I wish chickenhawks like you were rounded up and shipped off to fight.  Those who have never been, or are in no danger of going, cheer the loudest.

You wouldn't die for your country.

You'd die for the government.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:29 | 4480661 poggi
poggi's picture

Read the departed Tom Clancy's FICTIONAL novel, Command Authority.  Right out of the headlines.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:35 | 4480687 Debugas
Debugas's picture

"countdown towards a termo-nuclear war by the 1st of March"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFcgNaMFNTI

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 13:45 | 4480739 Saratoga
Saratoga's picture

"Killed the Czar and his ministers, Anatasia screamed in vain".....This time it looks like someone is going to fight for them.

Wed, 02/26/2014 - 16:10 | 4481520 Joe A
Joe A's picture

It would not surprise me at all if all this was cooked up in order to cut the gas supply to Western Europe so that these countries will after all back a major operation in Syria because the gas needs to flow.

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