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Fourth Time Is The Charm For S&P 500 Which Finally Closes At A New Record High

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The lucky number for the S&P500 was four, which after three aborted attempts to take out the January 15 all time high, finally succeeded on the fourth try materializing in a furious buying panic in Spoos in the last minutes of trading. However, in terms of catalyst, there was absolutely nothing to push the market to new highs: durable goods were a disappointment as we explained earlier (and led banks such as Barclays to further lower their GDP forecast for the year), while initial claims rose to the highest of the year. Which leaves only Yellen as the factor, although as can be seen on the chart below, one can just as easily say once US traders walked in today, the channel lift algo was activated, and with Spoos meandering all day in a straight line within the channel, finally burst through to highs with the closing print.

 

Of course, in a catalyst free world, it meant that something else was driving equities higher, and that something as usual was a carry funding pair, only today it was not so much the USDJPY as it was the AUDJPY shown below.

 

Not everyone bought it, however, with bonds trading in a tight range and closing at a lower yield once again, and now back to early 2013 levels. Then again, in the New Normal all that matters is the wealth effect, aka stocks. And what do bonds know anyway.

So with conflict in the Crimea, economic data continuing to deteriorate far beyond simply "weather", emerging markets still unsettled and likely to get worse as the taper continues and the US current account deficit shrinking, and the Chinese economy set for a "volatile year" in its own words what can one say but... it's all priced in.

 


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Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:18 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

did anyone really think that a new high was NOT being saved for the day our lord and savior the fed was to speak on all our behalves?

 

And ironically right before month end highs and beginning of month newer highs?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

I thought Obonghit was our Lord and saviour.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:23 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Five and you are in the bee hive.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:28 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Mrs. Debtfire personally delivered bagels, cream cheese & lox to Kevin Henry this morning, with a handwritten note reading "[G]o get 'em, Kev! Shalom out! - Ole' Yellen".

Color me unimpressed on the move intraday especially given Chuck "Unwind That Taper Now!" Schumer's (D-Bankistan) heavy assistance & aggressive jawboning .

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:05 | Link to Comment skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

Schumer basically said "get to work mr. yellen" today although he doesn't have the sack to speak to a woman (?) that way, only 5'6" mighty ben shalom

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:08 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Back to morning gap ups.....melt up....and ramp to the closes...

The market is back on track!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:57 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Okay; I sold two contracts @1854.25 for Mar. which trades until the third week of Mar. so we'll see what happens next. I regard this as bullshit market, obviously; but we'll have to wait and see.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

It doesn't matter if the AUD/JPY is predominant or the USD/JPY is predominnat in the day's trade; all that matters is the weaker JPY!  Hooozah!  Stawks up on Yen weakness.  What the fuck "market" is this again?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:49 | Link to Comment DavrosoftheDaleks
DavrosoftheDaleks's picture

I was waiting for this day so I could take out cash from a credit card and take money from my home equity to buy more stocks on margin and leverage the fuck up!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 20:08 | Link to Comment smcapmachine
smcapmachine's picture

will a day ever come when zerohedge's gloom and doom will actually be correct?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Yes.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

"However, in terms of catalyst, there was absolutely nothing to push the market to new highs..."

Yep. Nothing suspicious about that. All is well...all is well!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | Link to Comment TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Is it possible the author has never heard of QE?

 

If you like the S&P at 1850 you are going to LOVE the S&P at 2000..  

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | Link to Comment emsolý
emsolý's picture

yes, but TSLA down huge (-0.18%) 

should be bonus chart candidate, really

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

STAWKS YAY!

There...best market analysis of the year.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | Link to Comment i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Gotta juice it when the Chairshman speaks so that the media can claim "the market liked it."

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Charles The Ham...
Charles The Hammer Martel's picture

"However, in terms of a catalyst..." that should be the only phrase in this article. It should probably be the only phrase when speaking about the market lately.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | Link to Comment nickels
nickels's picture

So tomorrow you'll still have a chance to be the last person to die in this war!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

How come BTC/USD surged at the close??

Had to chicken peck that btw.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

It's great to be alive!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

I keep telling myself that as a Polar Bear is gnawing on my leg........

Alas, it is but a flesh wound, and the Good Lord saw fit to give me two legs.....

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:30 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Scars give one "character".

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

Oh good! The recovery is finally here!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:48 | Link to Comment wuush
wuush's picture

finally the recovery got the memo

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

I see that gold finished up $3.40 though.

You're getting sloppy, JPM!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:24 | Link to Comment papaswamp
Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:52 | Link to Comment EuropeanBankster
EuropeanBankster's picture

That chart doesn't say shit short term..corporate america is doing fine as long as they can refinance at manipulated levels..extra FCF is used for buybacks.. S&P pushes higher until the black swan appears (read crimea crisis getting out of hand).. 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:24 | Link to Comment ms8172
ms8172's picture

I am starting to think that the FED trading room is buying stocks directly.  I am being serious!!  There is no reason this market should be rising!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:28 | Link to Comment praps
praps's picture

Analysts are still forecasting a 8/9% increase in earnings 2014 to 2015.  Stocks will go up as long as this is the case.

 

Negative news can provide small set back but the earnings story trumps all

 

 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:45 | Link to Comment SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Horse Shit!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:43 | Link to Comment 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws." 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:38 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

William Dudley had to ensure the market looked at her time before the comittee as favorable.

William Dudley ensuring the NY Fed's trading desk boost the indexes. As planned.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:26 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Good, I had not taken profits in a while.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:29 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Shit Volume and....Bond market looking at the stock market like it's fucking Milly Cypress!

 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:31 | Link to Comment The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Follow the fed, follow the, follow the fed.....do that and you will become rich. Fundamentals mean nothing anymore. When it ends, it will make WWII look like a scout camp.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:38 | Link to Comment starman
starman's picture

Pump and dump! 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:38 | Link to Comment 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Yellen be Swellen and Propellen.

 

About friggen time.

Yabba dabba doo!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:47 | Link to Comment CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

This defies the Bollinger band theory and the Taylor rule

Translation: I don't know what the fuck i am talking about, But BTFD

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 19:45 | Link to Comment villainvomit
villainvomit's picture

Capt......green for the fried chicken that is so damn tasty.......and don't forget the gasoline !!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 08:09 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

No worry, Cap. You absolutely, positively do not need to know what you are talking about in order to post on the internets.

But, just FYI:  BB theory holds that in here cash price will tag the upper band  and this initial tag is to be taken as a continuation signal. 

 

 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:49 | Link to Comment uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

I am not convinced.   New high needs to be confirmed. Barely got there and all from short covering.  Short covering is not real buying.   Come on now.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:16 | Link to Comment NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  New high needs to be confirmed.

Ok, it's 5:16 and they are still at a new high.  

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

There are still long term shorts in the mawket?  Doubtful.  What we have here is an HFT hot-potatoe-game with Yen weakness.  

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:58 | Link to Comment NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

I think the top 10% are feeling those animal spirits and their economy is about to take off with lots of new low-paying jobs created for the trash-class.    

So, overall, stocks higher, followed by periods of lower, which results in BtFD.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:59 | Link to Comment nakki
nakki's picture

How many people on the same side of the boat?  If corporations can use NON-GAPP never make money and all sovereign debt will always be good perhaps we make it to 2015. Doubt it but my timing is usually wrong.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:00 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Wow, look at those mawkets go.

Hey Janet, must be time to stop QE and put rates at 6% right?

You know, pay savers some interest and stop propping parasitic banks and corporations?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 19:55 | Link to Comment villainvomit
villainvomit's picture

Hell no......our dual mandate is USD unstability and high unemployment......................

 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:02 | Link to Comment skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

After waking up to ES down 9, i had a funny feeling that it wouldn't last... but this is fkn ridiculous...

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Isn't the NASDAQ up something like 13 out of the last 15 sessions or smthg like that?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Yes, and with an AVALANCHE of shit economic data -- so this is all very normal.

Repeat after me: "It could have been worse."  

Let's try it... "GDP isn't the consensus of 2.5% but is a horrible -1.0%?  Oh well, it 'could have been worse' at -1.00000000001%, which then would'a been bad...SO LET'S BUY BUY BUY!!!"

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:37 | Link to Comment Dr_Lucid
Dr_Lucid's picture

We ramped up to a new all time high for absolutely no fucking reason at all. 

$SPY is now the poor man's scratch off. 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 21:25 | Link to Comment El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

The reason was Janet Yellen, can't have a down day when the new director of fun and games is in front of the "watch dog" commitee for oversight of said fun and games. It was a marvel of hi tech " Market " rigging from 6am into the close. Long live the Great Ponzi.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 21:13 | Link to Comment El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Yeah, its the Search and Destroy alogo Bear Jam FestaPalooza blow off top.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Dimons jock
Dimons jock's picture

Bob PissOnMe's been bitching about this all week long - how fucking pathetic - saying all week "Retails got to jump in now" ... even said please at one point today ... at the ALL TIME HIGH, LOL ..... good job Bob, nothing like pumping an over inflated market & fucking your reatrded viewers over with pleads to buy in.    

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:56 | Link to Comment skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

he's such a dumb, gay panty waste... masquerading as an insightful floor guy - his only ideas are what other people text and twat him, i used to sit next to a guy who would say watch gay bob say this, i just emailed him... he would repeat it like a parrot, true story

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:47 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

the amount i would fucking give for this thing to fucking crash tomorrow morning, o boy,

 

to start id give up sex prob for a few months, i know it sounds crazy, but geez the great feeling that would be if we woke up tomm and we saw a 1987 type crash, id give up a shitload for that just to see the panic that ensued.

 

that being said, we r prob going to finish up green tomm, and if it is red, it will prob be -1 on the s&p in this joke of a market

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:53 | Link to Comment The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

I'm not ready for that shit.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:58 | Link to Comment whoknoz
whoknoz's picture

"The lucky number for the S&P500 was four.."

Four is the number of death.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Nutflush60
Nutflush60's picture

Per Bob Pisani, she is so calming, so smart. Investment as a performance art is back.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Dimons jock
Dimons jock's picture

And he used the word "Grandmotherly" ,LO-fucking -L .....

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 21:08 | Link to Comment El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Bob Pisani sleeps in a koolaid bath and sniffs fairy dust somewhere over the rainbow.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 19:51 | Link to Comment Rough-Trader
Rough-Trader's picture

Think about it this way: If the companies buy ALL their stock back in 20 years time, all shares will be a billion/trillion dollars worth.

Over 20 years some of these companies could potentially be able to buy back all their shares, then the poor PI could be a billionaire.

Then Dow would be at 200.000 at least.  Possible???

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 21:54 | Link to Comment BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

FED wants:

1. to eliminate QE (or they wouldn't be doing it)

2. to return to "normal interest rate policy" (they will be forced to)

3. someone other than itself buying treasuries (for obvious reasons)

4. stock market to continue making all time highs (transer wealth to friends and hike 401Ks)

 

What's Yellen got up her sleeve besides saggy old-lady arms??

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 22:02 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Russian Bear scare."

No news? Really? Give me a break. the "Great Game" has spilled into the open.
The question is...how much of this is just a battle space of the mind?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 22:27 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Looks like Soros is getting a little payback for tunming his relatives into the Nazis. 

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