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Fourth Time Is The Charm For S&P 500 Which Finally Closes At A New Record High

Tyler Durden's picture


The lucky number for the S&P500 was four, which after three aborted attempts to take out the January 15 all time high, finally succeeded on the fourth try materializing in a furious buying panic in Spoos in the last minutes of trading. However, in terms of catalyst, there was absolutely nothing to push the market to new highs: durable goods were a disappointment as we explained earlier (and led banks such as Barclays to further lower their GDP forecast for the year), while initial claims rose to the highest of the year. Which leaves only Yellen as the factor, although as can be seen on the chart below, one can just as easily say once US traders walked in today, the channel lift algo was activated, and with Spoos meandering all day in a straight line within the channel, finally burst through to highs with the closing print.


Of course, in a catalyst free world, it meant that something else was driving equities higher, and that something as usual was a carry funding pair, only today it was not so much the USDJPY as it was the AUDJPY shown below.


Not everyone bought it, however, with bonds trading in a tight range and closing at a lower yield once again, and now back to early 2013 levels. Then again, in the New Normal all that matters is the wealth effect, aka stocks. And what do bonds know anyway.

So with conflict in the Crimea, economic data continuing to deteriorate far beyond simply "weather", emerging markets still unsettled and likely to get worse as the taper continues and the US current account deficit shrinking, and the Chinese economy set for a "volatile year" in its own words what can one say but... it's all priced in.

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Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:18 | 4486276 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

did anyone really think that a new high was NOT being saved for the day our lord and savior the fed was to speak on all our behalves?


And ironically right before month end highs and beginning of month newer highs?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | 4486306 ACP
ACP's picture

I thought Obonghit was our Lord and saviour.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:28 | 4486314 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Mrs. Debtfire personally delivered bagels, cream cheese & lox to Kevin Henry this morning, with a handwritten note reading "[G]o get 'em, Kev! Shalom out! - Ole' Yellen".

Color me unimpressed on the move intraday especially given Chuck "Unwind That Taper Now!" Schumer's (D-Bankistan) heavy assistance & aggressive jawboning .

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:05 | 4486458 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

Schumer basically said "get to work mr. yellen" today although he doesn't have the sack to speak to a woman (?) that way, only 5'6" mighty ben shalom

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:08 | 4486468 max2205
max2205's picture

Back to morning gap ups.....melt up....and ramp to the closes...

The market is back on track!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:57 | 4486432 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Okay; I sold two contracts @1854.25 for Mar. which trades until the third week of Mar. so we'll see what happens next. I regard this as bullshit market, obviously; but we'll have to wait and see.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:24 | 4486539 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

It doesn't matter if the AUD/JPY is predominant or the USD/JPY is predominnat in the day's trade; all that matters is the weaker JPY!  Hooozah!  Stawks up on Yen weakness.  What the fuck "market" is this again?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:49 | 4486675 DavrosoftheDaleks
DavrosoftheDaleks's picture

I was waiting for this day so I could take out cash from a credit card and take money from my home equity to buy more stocks on margin and leverage the fuck up!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 20:08 | 4486953 smcapmachine
smcapmachine's picture

will a day ever come when zerohedge's gloom and doom will actually be correct?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 22:10 | 4487327 Ness.
Ness.'s picture


Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:19 | 4486286 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

"However, in terms of catalyst, there was absolutely nothing to push the market to new highs..."

Yep. Nothing suspicious about that. All is well...all is well!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | 4486294 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Is it possible the author has never heard of QE?


If you like the S&P at 1850 you are going to LOVE the S&P at 2000..  

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | 4486292 emsolý
emsolý's picture

yes, but TSLA down huge (-0.18%) 

should be bonus chart candidate, really

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | 4486299 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


There...best market analysis of the year.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | 4486301 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Gotta juice it when the Chairshman speaks so that the media can claim "the market liked it."

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:21 | 4486303 Charles The Ham...
Charles The Hammer Martel's picture

"However, in terms of a catalyst..." that should be the only phrase in this article. It should probably be the only phrase when speaking about the market lately.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | 4486304 nickels
nickels's picture

So tomorrow you'll still have a chance to be the last person to die in this war!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | 4486305 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

How come BTC/USD surged at the close??

Had to chicken peck that btw.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | 4486309 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

It's great to be alive!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:26 | 4486326 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

I keep telling myself that as a Polar Bear is gnawing on my leg........

Alas, it is but a flesh wound, and the Good Lord saw fit to give me two legs.....

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:30 | 4486348 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Scars give one "character".

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:22 | 4486313 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

Oh good! The recovery is finally here!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:48 | 4486400 wuush
wuush's picture

finally the recovery got the memo

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:23 | 4486315 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

I see that gold finished up $3.40 though.

You're getting sloppy, JPM!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:24 | 4486320 papaswamp
Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:52 | 4486415 EuropeanBankster
EuropeanBankster's picture

That chart doesn't say shit short term..corporate america is doing fine as long as they can refinance at manipulated levels..extra FCF is used for buybacks.. S&P pushes higher until the black swan appears (read crimea crisis getting out of hand).. 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:24 | 4486321 ms8172
ms8172's picture

I am starting to think that the FED trading room is buying stocks directly.  I am being serious!!  There is no reason this market should be rising!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:28 | 4486333 praps
praps's picture

Analysts are still forecasting a 8/9% increase in earnings 2014 to 2015.  Stocks will go up as long as this is the case.


Negative news can provide small set back but the earnings story trumps all



Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:45 | 4486390 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Horse Shit!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:43 | 4486383 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws." 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:38 | 4486328 yogibear
yogibear's picture

William Dudley had to ensure the market looked at her time before the comittee as favorable.

William Dudley ensuring the NY Fed's trading desk boost the indexes. As planned.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:26 | 4486331 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Good, I had not taken profits in a while.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:29 | 4486340 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Shit Volume and....Bond market looking at the stock market like it's fucking Milly Cypress!


Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:31 | 4486347 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Follow the fed, follow the, follow the fed.....do that and you will become rich. Fundamentals mean nothing anymore. When it ends, it will make WWII look like a scout camp.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:38 | 4486369 starman
starman's picture

Pump and dump! 

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:38 | 4486371 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Yellen be Swellen and Propellen.


About friggen time.

Yabba dabba doo!

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:47 | 4486396 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

This defies the Bollinger band theory and the Taylor rule

Translation: I don't know what the fuck i am talking about, But BTFD

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 19:45 | 4486877 villainvomit
villainvomit's picture

Capt......green for the fried chicken that is so damn tasty.......and don't forget the gasoline !!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 08:09 | 4488085 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

No worry, Cap. You absolutely, positively do not need to know what you are talking about in order to post on the internets.

But, just FYI:  BB theory holds that in here cash price will tag the upper band  and this initial tag is to be taken as a continuation signal. 



Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:49 | 4486407 uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

I am not convinced.   New high needs to be confirmed. Barely got there and all from short covering.  Short covering is not real buying.   Come on now.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:16 | 4486498 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  New high needs to be confirmed.

Ok, it's 5:16 and they are still at a new high.  

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:27 | 4486552 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

There are still long term shorts in the mawket?  Doubtful.  What we have here is an HFT hot-potatoe-game with Yen weakness.  

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:58 | 4486433 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

I think the top 10% are feeling those animal spirits and their economy is about to take off with lots of new low-paying jobs created for the trash-class.    

So, overall, stocks higher, followed by periods of lower, which results in BtFD.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 17:59 | 4486439 nakki
nakki's picture

How many people on the same side of the boat?  If corporations can use NON-GAPP never make money and all sovereign debt will always be good perhaps we make it to 2015. Doubt it but my timing is usually wrong.

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:00 | 4486440 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Wow, look at those mawkets go.

Hey Janet, must be time to stop QE and put rates at 6% right?

You know, pay savers some interest and stop propping parasitic banks and corporations?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 19:55 | 4486912 villainvomit
villainvomit's picture

Hell no......our dual mandate is USD unstability and high unemployment......................


Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:02 | 4486448 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

After waking up to ES down 9, i had a funny feeling that it wouldn't last... but this is fkn ridiculous...

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:25 | 4486548 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Isn't the NASDAQ up something like 13 out of the last 15 sessions or smthg like that?

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:31 | 4486582 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Yes, and with an AVALANCHE of shit economic data -- so this is all very normal.

Repeat after me: "It could have been worse."  

Let's try it... "GDP isn't the consensus of 2.5% but is a horrible -1.0%?  Oh well, it 'could have been worse' at -1.00000000001%, which then would'a been bad...SO LET'S BUY BUY BUY!!!"

Thu, 02/27/2014 - 18:37 | 4486619 Dr_Lucid
Dr_Lucid's picture

We ramped up to a new all time high for absolutely no fucking reason at all. 

$SPY is now the poor man's scratch off. 

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