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It Is Always Sunny In Chicago: Chicago PMI Slams Expectations, Rises From January

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In a "stunning" turn of events, Chicago, where the bulk of the polar vortex impact was felt in the past month, apparently experienced zero negative economic impact from, you know, the weather, after moments ago the Chicago PMI February print blew away forecasts of a 56.4 print, and after printing at 59.6 in January in fact rose to 59.8, just shy of the highest sellside forecast of 60. Because after beating expectations 5 times in a row why not make it six.

The key component breakdown was as follows:

  • New Orders 63.6, down from 64.6
  • Prices Paid 59.1, down from 64.9
  • Employment soared from 49.2 to 59.3

From the report:

The Chicago Report points to firm growth and a continued recovery in the US economy, with the Barometer standing at its highest level since December and remaining around 60 for the fifth consecutive month.

 

Some panellists cited the negative effect of the poor weather on their business, although overall this appeared to have a minor impact that was only visible in longer supplier lead times.

 

After expanding at a faster rate in January, Production and New Orders decelerated in February, while a more pronounced set back was seen in Order Backlogs.

 

In contrast, the Employment Indicator bounced back sharply in February, jumping out of contraction, and nearly reversing the declines seen in the previous two months.

 

Prices Paid fell in February, following January’s supplier led price hikes, which had pushed the indicator to the highest level since November 2012.

 

Inventory of finished goods expanded a little faster as companies continued to rebuild stocks, following December’s sharp drawdown.

 

Commenting on the MNI Chicago Report, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist at MNI Indicators said, “The latest Chicago Report confirms that the US economic recovery continued in February, with New Orders and Production remaining at high levels.”

 

“In line with the pick-up in demand, firms continued to rebuild inventory and just over 50% of respondents said they planned to increase stock levels over the next three
months.”

To summarize, again, all the bad data is due to the weather. All the good data is due to the recovery, and the weather has no impact. Carry on.

 

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Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:00 | 4488885 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Goldiloks numbers all around, wolves of wallstreet sporting morning wood.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:06 | 4488918 RevRex
RevRex's picture

All is well, and BitCoin is NOT the modern day equivalent of the pet rock!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:03 | 4488898 Jason T
Jason T's picture

furnaces and wood stoves drove demand.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:26 | 4489025 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Yeah - the temp in Chicago is close to "absolute zero" but that only matters when economic data is bad.

 

Carry on.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:04 | 4488902 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Lisping and lying, and figures are frying, 

cmon Janet,  pump and pimp my ride.....(shorting the casinos...hard.)  

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:04 | 4488905 madbraz
madbraz's picture

PMI = Markit = owned by banks = duh

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:05 | 4488909 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

it's only the weather's fault when the numbers are bad.

When the numbers are good, then obviously it's all due to the incredible genius and wisdom of the central planners.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:08 | 4488928 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

markets up about .50 percetn, gold pummeled, miners slapped. Why not close the markets now and let everyone have a long weekend? Mission complete.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:12 | 4488945 Cynic2245
Cynic2245's picture

Not sure why everyone on this board is so skeptical of good economic data, but not of bad data.  Maybe the skeptics have been wrong, and things aren't so terrible.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:19 | 4488985 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

I think some people believe that apart from not being valid, economic metrics are better at hiding weakening fundamentals than big tits hide crooked teeth.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:20 | 4488988 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

Well, this is just a survey so who knows how purchasing managers "felt" last month. But living in Chicago I can tell you that there has been 6-7 days just in the last 6 weeks where there has been virtually 0 economic activity. I mean roads impassable, frostbite type temps and no one out. Several friends in the bar/restaurant business that say its the worst month they've ever had. Real estate people telling me its come to a complete standstill.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:20 | 4488991 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Duh, the point is bad weather is the cause of bad data but somehow good data is weather independent.  You don't get that?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:23 | 4489008 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

For the most important subset of the population, I think you're right.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:21 | 4488997 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I'm sorry - does this have anything to do with the new chocolate ration? It's increasing, right?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:47 | 4489138 nakki
nakki's picture

As someone pointed out above, its a survey. Basically someone's opinion which usually gets revised. By the way how do you revise a survey? 

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