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New Spy Technology To Spawn Oil Revolution

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by James Burgess of

New Spy Technology to Spawn Oil Revolution

The future of oil exploration lies in new technology--from massive data-processing supercomputers to 4D seismic to early-phase airborne spy technology that can pinpoint prospective reservoirs.

Oil and gas is getting bigger, deeper, faster and more efficient, with new technology chipping away at “peak oil” concerns.  Hydraulic fracturing has caught mainstream attention, other high-tech developments in exploration and discovery have kept this ball rolling.

Oil majors are second only to the US Defense Department in terms of the use of supercomputing systems, which find sweet spots for drilling based on analog geology. These supercomputing systems analyze vast amounts of seismic imaging data collected by geologists using sound waves.

What’s changed most recently is the dimension: When the oil and gas industry first caught on to seismic data collection for exploration efforts, the capabilities were limited to 2-dimensional imaging. The next step was 3D, which gives a much more accurate picture of what’s down there.

The latest is the 4th dimension: Time, which allows explorers not only to determine the geological characteristics of a potential play, but also tells them how a reservoir is changing in real time.   But all this is very expensive.  And oilmen are zealous cost-cutters.

The next step in technology takes us off the ground and airborne—at a much cheaper cost—according to Jen Alic, a global intelligence and energy expert for OP Tactical.

The newest advancement in oil exploration is an early-phase aerial technology that can see what no other technology—including the latest 3D seismic imagery—can see, allowing explorers to pinpoint untapped reservoirs and unlock new profits, cheaper and faster.

“We’ve watched supercomputing and seismic improve for years.  Our research into new airborne reservoir-pinpointing technology tells us that this is the next step in improving the bottom line in terms of exploration,” Alic said.

“In particular, we see how explorers could reduce expensive 3D seismic spending because they would have a much smaller area pinpointed for potential.  Companies could save tens of millions of dollars.”

The new technology, developed by Calgary’s NXT Energy Solutions, has the ability to pinpoint prospective oil and gas reservoirs and to determine exactly what’s still there from a plane moving at 500 kilometers an hour at an altitude of 3,000 meters.

The Stress Field Detection (SFD) technology uses gravity to gather its oil and gas intelligence—it can tell different frequencies in the gravitational field deep underground.

Just like a stream is deflected by a big rock, SFD detects  gravity disturbances due to subsurface stress and density variations.   Porous rock filled with fluids has a very different density than surrounding solid rocks. Remember, gravity measurement is based on the density of materials. SFD detects subtle changes in earth’s gravitational field.

According to its developers, the SFD could save oil and gas companies up to 90% of their exploration cost by reducing the time spent searching for a reservoir and drilling into to it to determine whether there’s actually any oil and gas still there.

“Because it’s all done from the air, SFD doesn’t need on-the-ground permitting, and it covers vast acreage very quickly. It tells explorers exactly where to do their very expensive 3D seismic, greatly reducing the time and cost of getting accurate drilling information,” NXT Energy Solutions President and CEO George Liszicasz, told in a recent interview.

Mexico’s state-owned oil company Pemex has already put the new technology to the test  both onshore and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, and was  a repeat customer in 2012.  They co-authored with NXT a white paper on their initial blind-test used of the survey  technology.

At first, management targeted the technology to frontier areas where little  seismic  or well data existed.  As an example, Pacific Rubiales Energy is using SFD technology in Colombia, where the terrain, and environmental concerns, make it difficult to obtain permits and determine where best to drill.

The technology was recently  contracted in the United States for unconventional plays  as well.


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Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:42 | 4491883 css1971
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Peak oil = 2005-6 We are now sliding down the other side of the peak no matter what they do to get the stuff out.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:56 | 4491921 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Actually pretty cool stuff, but does nothing for peak oil. 

And fracking is not a 'new' tech and certainly isn't a sophisticated one lol

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:56 | 4491930 semperfidelis
semperfidelis's picture

We ares aved I tell you ...
Glory to this new technology. 10 cents a gallon gas in weeks...
All rejoice.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:12 | 4492007 negative rates
negative rates's picture

She can't be trusted.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:17 | 4492398 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

How is any of this "spy" technology?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:49 | 4492464 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

Rumor has it that they snap pictures of you spanking the monkey through the bathroom window, and then use those pics to 'motivate' you into becoming a lifelong Democrat.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 16:58 | 4494396 balolalo
balolalo's picture

This is not an oil revolution.

Fracking is like squeezing the sponge.    A lot comes out but in the end there is less afterward.    

Peak oil is not an abstract theory.   Fracking only bought us, and the bubble economy, some time to keep the charade going.   As if the earth could support 7+ billion wanna-be westerners.  It can't and no economic theory can change that physical reality. 

TPTB know this and are bidding their time, prepping 1% style. Why do you think they are militarizing the police? To keep us in line as more people are shifted into the peasant class.  

Oil is energy, energy is food, food makes people.    

Take away the oil and people will starve.    And on the way down, the cities will burn.   Exhibit a: kiev.  Exhibit b: detroit.  Exhibit c, d, e........

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 17:34 | 4494604 logicalman
logicalman's picture

The earth will be fine.

It's humans that are fucked

Paraphrase of Mr. Carlin

Yesterday is gone.....

Tomorrow may not happen.

What does that leave?

Just asking.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 18:37 | 4494883 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

I agree, balalalo! There are lots of interesting articles which attempt to correlate the basic statistics about fuel and food with political "revolutions." I find the nostalgic nonsense related to the descriptions of those "revolutions" to be quite ridiculous. Typical reactionary revolution, in which the analysis of the basic facts tends to be done well enough, to get the deeper background, but then, still leaps of faith towards miraculous "political" cures for basically physical problems, which were able to get to be so much worse because of the bullshit "politics" that buried those problems so deeply, for so long.

As one example of that kind of article:

Turning Points and Peak Customer

February 26, 2014

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 02:52 | 4492738 Nassim
Nassim's picture

The French had these "sniffing" planes 30 years ago. It was all a hoax that made a lot of money for some people

"Great Oil Sniffer Hoax"

It is funny to see that they are repeating the same hoax a second time to great success. They seem have taken ZH in.


In French it was called

"Affaire des avions renifleurs"

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 07:16 | 4492888 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Yup.  I used to work in the industry and I am calling bullshit on this stuff. 

Any geophysics tech loses resolution with depth.  This is because small, unknown variations in the properties of shallow rock will mask the weaker signals from deeper rock.  Deeper than a few tens of meters, anything besides seismics will be only marginally more accurate than witchcraft.  Getting useful seismic data at oil depth, and processing it correctly, is such a such complex job that few companies have the equipment and software to do it and they charge a fortune for the service.  Even then it's a crapshoot with rapidly diminishing returns.  That's the brutal truth.  But high costs, high rewards, and high complexity combine to give a high prevalence of ripoffs.  A lot of these ripoffs aren't even deliberate.  It is common for an inexperienced company to sell inexperienced miners a cheap survey with a nonseismic technique that they push deeper than they should, and they end up over-interpreting data that is inherently crappy.  There are also scammers out there.  They are usually selling a fast scanning, revolutionary new technique based on technobabble that has little or no peer review because the mathematical guts are "proprietary".  That seems to be the case here.

A real gravity survey is notoriously difficult.  It requires moving a highly sensitive, easily damaged instrument on a laser surveyed grid.  The operator must retreat with each measurement or his own gravity will screw things up.  Conditions must be perfect or vibrations will screw it up.  Wind, rain, trucks, sparrow farts and ghosts will screw it up.  Back in the cubicles, the effects of tides, barometric pressure variations, sun and moon, nearby hills, etc.  must all be subtracted out.  Even then the depth of useful data is limited.  So when someone pretends to do a gravity survey from an airplane, with all the vibrations, plus random wind currents giving accelerations which mimic subtle changes in gravity, it must be a scam.

If someone wants to figure out how the reservoir is draining, there are multiple ways of measuring ground sinkage within a centimeter.  It's not perfect but it's relatively easy. 

If they really need to know what's down there, they need to drill a fuckin' hole.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 07:17 | 4492918 prains
prains's picture

they need to drill a fuckin' hole.


and stuff Fonestar in it

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 11:34 | 4493312 circusmaestro
circusmaestro's picture

hey ashtag #ImWithYouRex  please ZH, report on this. It's sooooooooo embarrassing..... William Banzai, where art you bro?

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 12:33 | 4493531 juangrande
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I recently read that the ROI on fracking in the Bakken shale reserve was negative. For every $1.50 invested, $1.00 of oil was removed. Basically, each well drilled tapped out relatively fast and required another well to be drilled nearby. I don't remember the link but it was from ZH.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 15:40 | 4494108 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Maybe the system's ROI is positive when fracking fluid in well water gives the little people expensive mystery ailments, and hinders their ability to live off the grid.  Fracking will fuck America for generations.  This is one of the puppetmasters' long term goals.  The puppetmasters themselves won't be affected by poisoned groundwater because they can afford to drink Evian, or even shower with it.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 17:40 | 4494625 logicalman
logicalman's picture

You conspiracy theorist!


Sat, 03/01/2014 - 18:38 | 4494889 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

The "puppet masters" are criminally insane, not actually exempt from their own actions.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 15:50 | 4493879 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

P.S.  Deep gravity surveys have been done from the windless environment of space, and deep magnetometry is often done from aircraft.  The output is real but the resolution is much too low for targeting wells.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 07:32 | 4492925 Urban Redneck
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Because it's already being used on the American sheeple with a slightly different cover story. But when comes to Loki's methods, some of them really never get old, if you really want to dig through history.

Although there was this time when someone from one of the major intelligence services offered to sell me seismographic data that was in the possession of another department/ministry within the government. Now, whether that dissemination method was a function of official policy, rogue fiefdoms, employee theft- who's to say? It also raises some interesting questions about the data acquisition policies and methods- depending on which intelligence service one assumes I am referring to.

One comes across some very deep and interesting rabbit holes when drilling or digging for energy and minerals.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 08:14 | 4492951 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

From these squiggly lines, I deduce that America needs to manufacture an excuse to "spread democracy" to your country sometime within the next few years.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 11:15 | 4493235 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

We already have direct democracy here, so the Ministries of Truth must muster a new dialectic before embarking on that adventure, but they're most certainly trying. More likely, IMHO, someone simply tires of my humorous humor and takes a more direct approach. But it is a great game, and while it may be lawless- there are at least customs.

But before one crosses the Bifröst and is deemed worthy to enter the rabbit hole and view the squiggly lines incarnate, they must first successfully pass Heimdall's challenge. As long as Man has been digging for treasure, people have proffered treasure maps to those men... To your original point, it sounds like a disciple of Loki may have entered the Digital Age of treasure cartography.

What was interesting about my little stroll over towards Asgard, was that my companions, who all specialized in the field of treasure hunting, each had more experience than I had years... So five guys with well over combined century of experience sat down one evening and among ourselves discussed Heimdall's challenge. We had a rather lengthy and technical exploration of the merits, costs and benefits. In the end- we were searching for black gold and Heimdall was offering yellow gold, so we parted company pleasantly. However, one wouldn't expect a virgin to extemporaneously produce and analyze a Kinsey scale or Klein grid... So it seems a rational conclusion that this sort of predicament does come up every so often among those who travel in certain circles...

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 15:28 | 4494035 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Can't figure out what you mean by Heimdall's challenge.  Too cryptic.  That's OK.  Getting a mortal into Asgard (the world behind the curtain?) is difficult.  Sometimes it is even harder to come back and broadcast the Gods' secrets to muggles, and not be punished for it.

BTW, I once submitted a paper to an academic conference that never happened.  There were suspicious oddities about the way the whole thing just evaporated.  I told my boss the conference must have been a ruse by Chinese intelligence looking to steal information about the latest mining techniques.  He was inclined to agree.  Good thing he was wise enough to tell me not to reveal too much secret sauce in the paper.  But they still could have reconstructed the technique. 

Guess that made us one of those companies with a proprietary technique that hadn't been peer reviewed.  Ours wasn't a scam.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 16:54 | 4494364 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I don't actually need to be cryptic there (as long I'm not providing real names), but there were just way too many obscure, yet related, mythological metaphors to pass up. Mortals are verboten in Asgard... TPTB who knows- according to some- they're reptiles. If they are, I'm not privy to it. However an entire mythology has been constructed around them, and then establishment disavowed eccentrics like Schliemann go and kick off the "turning conspiracy theory into conspiracy fact" business.

The insinuation with Heimdall's challenge was that Loki could be disguised as Heimdall, hence the whole thing would have been a financial con by an intelligence service (as opposed to their more well known financial con of taxpayers), and certainly not cooperation between big business and big government.

That wasn't the consensus of the wise men/old farts. The crux was that the seismic was supposedly shot in year X, so what what the would be the best we could expect of the raw data, and then questions about the analysis methods used to prepare the charts... the data certainly could have been useful and very valuable to miner for prioritizing upcoming blocks to bid on. However, we would have had to turn around and find an interested miner to sell to, and it was deemed not worth the cost to guys who didn't need the potential money and a distraction from our primary objective. But it was interesting what passes for unremarkable in the Wild Wild West of exploration. However, the flip side is that when a bunch of guys who look out of place suddenly drop into someone's little fiefdom and start meeting with officials, the local troll master also has an understandable inclination to determine just WTF you're trying to do in his backyard.

As for the Chinese, I sort of avoid them like the plague- professionally, except as buyers where they are providing vendor financing and the payments don't commence until after delivery has been made and the quality has been assured.

I won't sell anything to them that is a produced using protected intellectual property, since I ran into one instance where a lead contractor for a government ministry apparently tried to reverse engineer a complex chemical product and dilute it to further cut costs before mysteriously cancelling a contract at key renewal point, even though the product (even the likely Made-in-China fake) was demonstrated better than any other similar product. I am just not interested in playing both buyer-beware and seller-beware, if there other options.

But news of "disappearing" trade conferences certainly reinforces my bias, thanks for the confirmation.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 17:51 | 4494670 logicalman
logicalman's picture

This is all very interesting, if somewhat taxing, to read.

The thing that always bothers me is that humans have to one up each other and take advantage. To the point of war.

If we all cooperate, we all win.

If we fight there are losers.

Those that use divide and conquer  so that they are the (few) winners, know this and use it against those that don't.

If you get to do something you love to make a reasonable living, you're golden.

Fair exchange and REAL money would, IMHO, fix most of the world's ills

Unfortunately, I'm not an optimist.

By the way, countries are a good example of divide and conquer - maybe one of the best.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 21:08 | 4495264 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I packed up and moved 6000 miles to the only place I could find that at least had a cooperative framework (instead of collectivist or authoritarian), and I've still found a substantial number of vultures, so that doesn't appear to be an actual solution.

But if I pack up my marbles and sulk in the corner, it does nothing to improve the broader situation.

Politicians and leaders love to discuss and focus on process, particularly when they can't brag about outcomes, but they don't generally understand the serious consequences and probable outcomes of the very processes they engineer, particularly over the longer term.

Unfortunately, I don't see any solutions absent actual education and people choosing to adopt better values, which if I lived 50 more years might not be a long enough timeline...

In the meantime, I have a family I love and passion for my job, and the real luxury (for now) of saying "no" and if that luxury is taken away I would go back to my farm with no marbles and be content just growing food, but that behavior is the result of my formative years, and the examples of large scale "re-forming" and coercive imposition of values seem to have rather horrific outcomes.

So I wind up back at education and choices, seeking more and better.

Sun, 03/02/2014 - 00:26 | 4495354 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Thanks for clearing that up. 

As for mythology (which is an obsession of the puppetmasters), I do think most of it is based on historical events but these events were filtered through a 100+ person game of telephone before someone wrote it all down.  It can work surprisingly well.  Indians of the Pacific NW have multiple accurate stories going back to the end of the last ice age.  Australian Aboriginies have songs which have been used to trace their migration routes back to New Guinea, which they left 40,000 years ago when the sea was low enough.  You can also reconstruct deep history from myth in the same way that scientists can partially reconstruct the genomes of ancient lifeforms that spawned many lineages.  You trace back the tree, figuring out which "mutations" are likely to have emerged in which branch.  Do this long enough and you start to realize that all myths follow the same pattern.  Maybe that's the pattern that resonates with our brains and myths that fit the pattern have a competitive advantage.  Or maybe these myths go all the way back to the mother culture from 80,000 years ago, when humans went though a tight genetic bottleneck.  Maybe that's why so many creation myths talk about a time when all people spoke the same language and lived in harmony with each other and with nature. 

The gods seem to be the same too.  Even widely separated ones like Norse and Sumerian gods.  So, are they based on real history?  David Icke certainly thinks so based on comparative mythology.

Pumapunku might be the remains of an alien base camp.  The Mahabarata reads like Buck Rogers scifi, complete with spaceships, rayguns, nukes, missiles, and evil alien overlords. Where did that come from?  Does it have anything to do with the plutonium-infused skeletons in the melted city of Mohenjo Daro?  These are like Building 7 and the Pentagon.  Good entrances to the ancient alien rabbit hole.  Turn off the fuckin' history channel.

I don't think the elites are actual Lizard People.  I do think some of them are mind controlled, often by each other, sometimes by... something else.  I'm not sure what.  Demons?  Aliens?  Is there a difference?  Seems like every year I struggle to integrate a deeper, nastier layer of conspiratorial weirdness into the worldview.  Are the puppetmasters cutouts for an alien power?  Heirs to alien knowledge, passed down through mythology, which they use to enslave us?  Is the universe like Stargate SG-1 plus a bit of H.P. Lovecraft?  So many questions.  Maybe this will be the year it comes together.

Sun, 03/02/2014 - 10:14 | 4496691 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

As far back as middle school, I can remember a history teacher specifically saying that scholars had spent careers looking at this or that point and disagreed as to the causes and consequences of particular events, and the class was regularly made to debate those events mano-a-mano (and there were occasional fist fights that broke over out over such debates).

In high school, I was introduced to Newton, and the teacher said something to the effect of "Here are the scientific Laws of motion and gravitation, they represent the best thinking of the time and are held inviolate by consensus of professionals, until they are disproved or qualified. If you don't understand this go ask [next semester's professor] to explain Einstein, and then ask him when his today's physicists are going to to even reach consensus about quantum physics, and more importantly why."

My first semester of University, a US Foreign Policy Lecturer introduced himself this way-
This is not grade 13, if you perform at the same level you did last year, you will FAIL
The answers to the exams will not be found in your dogmatic textbooks, even if memorize them verbatim,
you will not pass a single examination, and you will FAIL
The actual words you will need to pass will not be found if you read every book in the library,
If you attempt to plagiarize someone else work, you will FAIL
If you do not read the assigned materials before attending my lectures,
you will not be able to my words in proper context, and you will FAIL
If by the final exam, you have not mastered the use of the microfilm machines, you will FAIL
If you do not clearly demonstrate to me that you can think and reason, you will FAIL
If you intend to fail, or are unwilling to commit the time and effort required to pass my course,
Do yourself and me a favor and DROP OUT by the end of the week.
(That professor preferred classrooms to lecture halls, as he had a fondness for throwing books, balls, and other objects at students who didn't appear to be paying attention)

So where have things devolved to today? (not that I have spent any real time in academic institutions the last couple decades)-
It seems orthodoxy, conformity, and subservience to the Church of the Holy Diploma is again paramount
Confrontation, whether intellectual or physical, with dogma or even consensus, is apostasy. It's the Dark Ages redux.

As more people are further dumbed down (or never taught to think in the first place) Hegel, Bernays, et a. become less critical, as out of ignorance, those who truly understand how to manipulate the engines of society are given greater latitude to do so in pursuit of their own ends, while the idiocrasy machine continues to build itself. If we get any good answers in the near future- I think it will be due to either dumb luck, or the walls tumbling down, and the contents of archives seeing the light of day (as happened after the fall of the USSR and numerous other States).

In terms of the intersection of mythology/religion, science, and history/business/foreign policy - I think the proximal relationship of anticlines to meteorite impacts, from the destruction of the Garden of Eden or the various Great Flood tales to the rise of American military industrial complex is rather interesting.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:59 | 4491943 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

ArkEx have been doing this for 10 years.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:05 | 4491977 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

has the ability to pinpoint prospective oil and gas reservoirs and to determine exactly what’s still there from a plane moving at 500 kilometers an hour at an altitude of 3,000 meters.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:13 | 4492018 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Sure, they are called "air detectors", and you can tell how well they feel by the lenght of their hair. 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:36 | 4492432 Eeyores Enigma
Eeyores Enigma's picture

" technology chipping away at “peak oil” concerns..."

he means "with new financial hijinks and debt chipping away at peak oil concerns..."

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 13:37 | 4493797 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

I find it interesting that this article talks about the availability of new technologies for finding oil and associated investment in these technologies, whereas very recently Pierre Lassonde of Franco Nevada said to Kitco News that the gold mining industry is suffering because of a lack of new technological discoveries (and no investment in new technology) in finding gold.

OK, different industries, but surely there is a contradiction somewhere here?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:52 | 4492473 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Peak facing oil is just another faddish fucking government fucking program.


Sat, 03/01/2014 - 09:43 | 4493024 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Agreed. Not mentioned but probably as important as any of the efficiencies associated with successful oil/gas production is Monitoring While Drilling (MWD) technology which allows for accurate knowledge of drillbit position so it can be steered to the target in real time.  Another major advance is the ability of drill rigs to literally 'walk'  several feet on a drill pad, allowing for multiple directionally drilled holes without constructiing multiple drill pads or having to tear down and set up the drill rig. This has been huge.

The probability of finding a super giant oil field is minimally better today than it was 15 years ago.  Get ready for the big slide down the backside of the Peak Oil production curve.  Yee-haa!



Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:35 | 4492431 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

Wow....all that pinpointing...and all that super computing power and yet...and yet...I cannot shake this feeling that the oil majors are now spending 2x and producing 0.9x compared to 5 years ago.

I thought this computy stuff was supposed to work the opposite way?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:43 | 4491889 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

If it's used to 'pinpoint oil resevoirs' then that says to me that those resevoirs must be quite small.  That means they won't be finding that much oil.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:39 | 4492301 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


If it's used to 'pinpoint oil resevoirs' then that says to me that those resevoirs must be quite small.  That means they won't be finding that much oil.

True, but it will be a good pump and dump scam up to the point where people figure out that it's just a high-tech way of proving that all the big oil fields have already been discovered.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:47 | 4491894 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

GPUs on a Video-card lend themselves to Image-processing.

Thus, all the eager Bitcoin/Crypto-Currency (CC) miners have been nice enough to fund the development and spread of cutting edge Video cards and global GPU capacity, will be able to pitch in...

/ If or when CCs crash (due to losing the fight with the Fed), they can always lease their spare GPUs to the Big Oil cartels:  Join the "Cash for GPUs" program.  You too could earn $5/day in your spare time.  /sarc

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:32 | 4492092 logicalman
logicalman's picture

On the other hand, you could give the spare capacity to something useful, like planet hunting, protein folding or SETI.


Sat, 03/01/2014 - 02:03 | 4492706 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

But if course / Mais oui, my friend from the "True North, strong and free".

You should not be too shocked that 'Kirk' has thus been helping SETI since 2000. Eh.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:46 | 4491899 doggis
doggis's picture




Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:13 | 4492013 Schaublin
Schaublin's picture

Actually, it is worse than that.  To sustain the current level of consumption and lifestyle, you are looking at 1 barrel in to 12 barrels out. 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:46 | 4492138 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

i watched a really good documentary regarding the history of petroleum and the first peak oil scare (at least in the USA) was that by 1925 the USA will have used up all it's

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:27 | 4492272 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture we're all saved because of a television program you watched?

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 00:35 | 4492623 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Better yet, it assumed we hadn't learned anything since 1925...

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 08:29 | 4492965 Cloud9.5
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Artists are sensitive types and tend to be out in front of things.  Being early in a prediction and being wrong is not quite the same thing. Recognizing a trend is open to the observant.  Picking a date for most of us is a fool’s errand.  Hubbard however tended to be on the mark.  I suggest you look at the production trends and not at the estimated reserves.  It is pretty clear that oil as it was once defined peaked in the United States in 1970.   It is becoming clear that world production of that same substance peaked around 2005.  We have seen a considerable uptick in U.S. production now that we have extended the definition of oil to include all liquids.  It is also fairly clear that shale rigs have a rather short half-life.  We may be able to extend the American experience to other formations around the world and then again we may not.  As more and more of the cheap oil is replaced by the more expensive all liquids oil it becomes apparent that net energy is bleeding out of the system.  The level of economic activity sustained by cheap oil is not being maintained by the more expensive substitutes.  The corresponding economic contraction is all around us.  I don’t deny that within the political district and the oil producing states economies are booming elsewhere especially in the periphery not so much.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 11:31 | 4493296 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Currently the world is at a point where it can economically support the price of the marginal barrel required to offset the decline of existing fields. The world economy has demonstrated that it currently cannot deal with Brent in the range $115-118 for sustained periods. Fortunately the cost of a new barrel is below that, at least for now...

The shit really hits the fan when the cost of a marginal new barrel becomes more expensive than what the economy can support. Then decline set in and Four Horsemen saddle up... 

It would appear that the Oil majors are very close to that edge given the declines in CAPEX....

However, what can first happen is that geologically we cannot replace that marginal barrel fast enough though the economy can support the price of extraction. Same outcome but a different path...

Given the data and using history as a tempered guide, one can not say with certainty which scenario plays out. To now, that marginal barrel is still at price at which the economy can sustain activity...

Finally, in both of the above scenarios, the EROEI event horizon is looming but is still some ways off..

The issue is whether we can develop a new infrastructure with at least an EROEI of 7-8 before the decline significantly affects global food production and distribution...

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 09:31 | 4493013 negative rates
negative rates's picture

So by 1933 they had drilled a well to 10,000 ft, proving they could do so and hoping they would find oil somewhere else, hence the term "first, but not the last".

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:13 | 4492014 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Besides...Wall Street has collapsed, the dollar is worthless, the world is shunning our debt and there are not "story stocks" in the equity space.

I's like they're gonna pull a million barrels of oil a day out of North Dakota or something.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:13 | 4492019 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Dowvote for ALL caps.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:55 | 4491926 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

vee hav gazolene all over zee place!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:00 | 4491952 kurt
kurt's picture

Dowsing with a better story. Pay the man.



An Army of Drunks with Two by Fours March on Washington

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:02 | 4491961 agent default
agent default's picture

The bottom line is that you have to get more and more sophisticated in order to get to the oil.  This is the definition of a losing battle.  Sure there is plenty of oil at $150 and even more at $1500 a barrel, but in the end it is no longer the cheap energy source we have built our civilization on.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:52 | 4492339 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

So what? We HAVE the brain power IF we don't abort it ...

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 01:39 | 4492688 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I wasn't aware that our brain power had overturned the 2nd law of thermodynamics and conservation of energy.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:05 | 4491979 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

So...spend it now?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:08 | 4491989 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Since we are on a roll, I had to repost this absolute gem posted by Calhoun over at Dawinian's Blog. Enjoy!


Ron made a reference to this article (Wells That Fizzle Are a ‘Potential Show Stopper’ for the Shale Boom) which contains the new meme for the LTO companies — software! Yes, software to the rescue. Here are some choice tidbits.

“The oil patch needs more brain for its brawn.” Hmmm…I see, the problem all along has been too many bulked up geologists who spend their time at the gym instead of studying.

“The reason is enough to give pause to anyone enjoying the benefits of cheap, abundant energy produced in the U.S. “ Oh, man, have I ever been enjoying that cheap abundant energy. Just had a cheap, abundant energy party down in my man cave last week. Woo hoo.

“New wells are fizzling out in their first year, threatening the 3-year-old oil boom.” Dude, did you have to bring me down? Is there an answer? There must be some really really smart people working on this problem.

“The challenge is forging alliances between two groups who previously rarely needed to work eyeball to eyeball — the people who know rocks and the people who poke holes in rocks.” Huh? What the hell are you talking about man? Are you talking about drillers and geologists? WOW! And all this time I thought the drillers and geologists worked together. How could they have missed such an obvious opportunity?

“Halliburton engineer Ron Dusterhoft, who was charged with marshaling a SWAT team of experts to tackle the problem, can now see a solution using artificial intelligence software dubbed Cypher. One Texas well that the team studied for months should have been drilled deeper, at a different slope, to really hit the sweet spot for oil.” Yeah Baby! I love SWAT teams. So these dudes flew in on black helicopters and used artificial intelligence (the best kind of intelligence I’m told) and they hit a sweet spot on one well. Go SWAT, Go SWAT!

“A lot of these wells aren’t performing well because they just haven’t been put in the right place,” he said. So THAT’S why they aren’t performing! Guys, come on! Put down the barbells and start putting the wells in the right spots!

“Just when the nation is hastening its march toward energy independence, the industry is concerned about crummy rock causing shale wells to sputter, some dropping as much as three-quarters of their output in the first year. That forces drillers onto a hamster wheel: They have to drill more wells, faster, to keep production up and satisfy investors, who in turn see costs rising and profits suffering.” Much as I would pay to see drillers forced onto a hamster wheel, I wouldn’t want to do it if it means investors not being satisfied.

The industry has so far been able to live with the decline curve problem because operators have been able to scratch out better initial production in wells, Stark said. “If you don’t have that improvement, then you get stuck after a while and have to drill more and more wells just to stay even,” Stark said. OK, OK, I know this is the big build up. Things are looking bad but there’s an answer, right?

Now, energy companies including Halliburton and Schlumberger Ltd. are realizing they need to buttress their efforts with brains before brawn.

Dusterhoft was charged with assembling a SWAT team of engineers and geologists at Halliburton — something new in shale drilling where the two disciplines traditionally minded their own tasks: geologists found the oil, and engineers figured out how to drill the well.

Understanding the peculiarities of shale rock requires bringing both into the same room for the first time. Yeah, let’s get those geologists and drillers into the same room. Sounds like a start. Why the heck didn’t they think of that before?

Before the hunger for more science and technology, the industry was essentially drilling wells blindly, said Peter Duncan, a former geophysicist at Royal Dutch Shell Plc who founded Microseismic Inc. Operators originally viewed shale rock in the “layer cake” model, thinking all of the rock was the same. Real-world experience showed that’s not the case, he said. Silly operators. I’m getting hungry for more science and technology, how about you?

Commingling the expertise of their scientists through a software program Schlumberger calls “U-ROC” has led to an almost 30 percent increase in production in some wells in the Eagle Ford, Cordes said. U-ROC! I love it! It has a cute name! I want in on some of that U-ROC magic, where do I send my money?

They’re starting to figure it out. Laredo Petroleum Inc. shares doubled in the five months after it talked on a call with investors in May about working with Halliburton on well-spacing and by using a “science-based approach” in West Texas’ Permian basin. Oh Baby, do they ever have it figured out. Shares double after a call to investors? It’s like printing money. It’s better than printing money!

By August, Laredo said it had its best-ever results in the Permian and that it was “among the best” of all peers working there. The well’s success was attributed partly to Laredo’s own internal efforts to pump more time and money into the science of drilling and production, said Ron Hagood, a spokesman at Laredo. And oil company executives never lie or exaggerate, so it must be true. But exactly what does “among the best” mean? And what does “of all the peers working there” mean? And what does “attributed partly” mean? Could you please be a little more specific? No? No way in hell you say? Shut up you say?


Ultimately, Dave Dunlap, chief executive officer at Superior Energy Services Inc., said he doesn’t ever see the decline curve challenge going away entirely.


“We’ve drilled all the good stuff,” he said. “These are very poor quality formations that I don’t believe God intended for us to produce from the source rock.” Man, and I was just starting to feel good. You’re a bummer. And if God didn’t intend us to produce from that rock how come we’re doing it? Are you saying God is wrong?


Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:10 | 4491998 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

After software, it will be down to magic and unicorns.

So desperation. Much wow.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:20 | 4492047 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

believe it or not California has the largest shale deposits in the world.
too bad the environmental movement never took hold out that way and they wound up depleting the entire reserve...otherwise they'd be rich like those Silicon Alley people.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:28 | 4492080 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You know, day after day you post explicitly wrong stuff.  Why?



Russia has the biggest shale oil reserves in the world and the ninth largest gas resources, said the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the U.S., in which shale oil and gas production is booming, after surveying reserves in 42 oil producing countries, Vedomosti reported.


Sat, 03/01/2014 - 01:21 | 4492677 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Mentally disabled vegetarian is nothing but a B.O.T.

I have challenged him several times, but nothing, not a peep.

Don't waste your time on him, he will be with us till someone flicks the switch on him.

In the meantime carry on.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 01:25 | 4492679 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

At least he is up front about it....

You know, with his avatar and whatnot...

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 09:35 | 4493017 negative rates
negative rates's picture

She has a roommate who does the exact same thing, and at night when they sleep together they whisper in each others ears "Two wrongs make a right", they fall asleep, wake the next day to repete the process all over again, oh yea, and it was all a secret too.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 10:50 | 4493151 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture


   you know better than that: Reserves are what you have once you demonstrate economic production. What Russia has is an estimated resource with nary a real estimate about about potential yield....

The Bazhenov play could be a Bakken or it could be uneconomic. It is also landlocked and somewhat removed from the Russian oil pipeline system

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 10:26 | 4493088 superflex
superflex's picture

I guess you missed the part in your wiki link that stated the formation lies at a depth between 6,000 and 15,000 feet deep.

I dont know how much time you have on a drill rig or costing out drilling operations, but those depths make it much more expensive to extract oil and gas than those in the Marcellus, Bakken or Eagle Ford.

I'm sure the folks in Carpenteria, Santa Barbara and Montecito would love to have a drill rig next to their multi million dollar houses.

Keep dreaming.


Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:31 | 4492425 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

And War or Peace.

There's physically difficult oil and politically difficult oil

The politically difficult stuff will enrich either the lawyers or the MIC, and the bankers regardless of which path is followed.

Some pile of rocks between China and Japan is just the tip of the vast catalog existing boundary disputes between nations, but both greed and need are also agnostic as to which path is followed.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:35 | 4492291 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


They’re starting to figure it out. Laredo Petroleum Inc. shares doubled in the five months

That's what it all boils down to. Get the engineers and geologists into a room together and you can increase pumping (and dumping) output.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:10 | 4491999 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Peak oil doesn't happen in an instant.  It's a fact over time.  What people want is for its dire consequences to happen AFTER they're/we're dead, me included.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 10:37 | 4493122 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

A variation on kicking the can down the road....

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:13 | 4492016 samsara
samsara's picture

How the conversation has changed.


"...Chipping away at Peak Oil Concerns...."

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:18 | 4492034 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Next they'll claim to have been on top of that all along, but what can you do, you know.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:22 | 4492061 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

oh i'm sure the claims have been made.

it's what's going on for real that has our attention however...

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:30 | 4492086 skbull44
skbull44's picture

Fukushima radiation or nuclear war will end it all before these lovely technologies can help to add tonnes more carbon to the atmosphere and have anthropomorphic climate change kill us. Or wil the fiat currnecy Ponzi collapse first and the house of cards of capital and credit to fund these technologies evaporate. Oh, decisions, decisions...

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:52 | 4492169 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

"anthropomorphic climate change"


you can add all the big words you'd like to the myth and that still will not make it true, but don't take my word for it,

take his:


Sat, 03/01/2014 - 00:28 | 4492614 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Are you starting to realize that you guys are the real trolls?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:37 | 4492108 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Why are we talking about this shit.

Any sane species would look up and say wow look at that bright yellow thing up there in the sky.

I'm pretty sure with a bit of work it could supply us with all the clean energy we need.

But you will notice, I said any SANE species. I guess that's where the idea falls down.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:53 | 4492174 Schaublin
Schaublin's picture

One square meter of Earth getting 12 hours of sunlight vs one square meter of Earth getting sunlight for millions of years (oil). Alternative energy is vapourware.


 We are spending those geological savings in one insane 100 odd year consumer/lifestyle/automobile/ fly to somewhere for the weekend/feed billions/mechanised war/ blowout - the supernova of humanity. It is starting to dim now...

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:03 | 4492200 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I studied astronomy at Uni, back in the '70s

One of the first things we did was to figure out, based on the energy output of the sun, the amount of that that reaches the earth and how much energy humans were using, how wide a band of solar cells would be required around the equator to supply said energy based on % effciency of the solar cells.

With 50% it came out to something like 3m

The earth recieves more energy in a day, from the sun, than humans use in a year.

We don't need fossil fuels and we sure as fuck don't WANT nukes (fusion would be OK - Thorium would be acceptable)

I do agree with your lifestyle comments.

I don't drive (by choice).



Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:48 | 4492426 Element
Element's picture

Several major commercial solar installations in the US and Australia are showing the same thing, about 17% capacity-yield in watts compared to their sticker output. And that's mostly for 4 hours per day around noon, trailing off, bell-curve like, either side.

The other problem is solar panels cost a stack as do their installation, and supporting electronics and batteries.

And no, tax-payers can not afford to subsidize uneconomic albatross's that are only partially functional systems (on a good day) that still requires a primary base-load production capacity anyway.

If you want 100% natural 24 hour around the clock solar energy supplies try this, I've used it, and it actually works reliably and cheaply:

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 23:05 | 4492498 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Fuck off

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 08:35 | 4492967 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

that's not a very logical response there logicalman, is it?

did you know that sulfur (a major byproduct of coal burning) is a key element in proteins?

did you know many of the soils on the planet are seriously deficient in sulfur?

did you know that most of the foods we grow are seriously deficient in protein?

did you know that lime is the #1 soil amendment currently used in agriculture & gardening?

did you know that the "AgLime" currently sold may be as harmful as helpful to soils in their current condition?

did you know that the byproduct of coal scrubbing, called "stack lime", is a far superior amendment for most of those soils due to the high sulphur content contained therein?

do you know how to close a loop?

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 10:42 | 4493142 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Did you know this has nothing to do with the argument?

Every now and again I give my my logic circuits the eveneing off, by the way, and just say what I feel.

Not often.

Coal is a gift from Gaia? Give me a fucking break! Shill for big coal, most likely, hence my reaction.

As for sulphur, SO2 is nastily acidic and causes damage to respiratory organs and the environment and it's SO2 that burning coal produces. Elemental sulphur is rather different.

Don't know where the lime bit came from, but here's something you may find interesting.....

I know more than you realise.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 20:11 | 4495140 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

lime is the ingredient that can be used to filter out all the nasty sulphur shit before it hits the atmosphere when burning coal.   how "clean" it is afterwards on an industrial scale, i do not have the expertise to discuss.    but at this point, i wouldn't be surprised if all the evidence out there is tainted with ideology.

coal can be considered somewhere between a mineral and a plant, both but neither.    a very rare and unique substance on the planet.   how is that not a gift from gaia, regardless of how man chooses to use it?

thanks, have read bread from stones, awesome book, mindbending even.   since you linked soil & health, you might find this interview with steve solomon, the library creator, interesting as well:

check your circuits before llstening though, as he shares some frank opinions on the "organic" movement.   some would even call him a shill for the chemical companies, but i sure wouldn't.    same for element btw.


Sat, 03/01/2014 - 01:43 | 4492693 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

The material demands on such a project alone would be immense.  Where are you going to get all of the material and what energy are you going to use to mine and process it?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:56 | 4492186 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Some idiot has figured out how to down vote and has down voted both of us but without any real engagement as to why we are so wrong.

The sun is already the biggest supplier of energy to our planet. All we have to do is figure out how to harness it.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:20 | 4492254 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You're wrong, fatally.

All we have to do is figure out how to harness it -- in the short time that is left, and given we've been trying for about 45 years.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:24 | 4492413 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

That was worked out for us millions of years ago when plants efectively stored sunlight and eventually became oil and gas.  And we are consuming these ancient stores in just a a century or so, near infinitely faster than the time it took to 'give' us these depleting stores of solar energy.

The process can be replicated on a small scale, by a process which turns algae into oil, with zero chance of ever making up for over-exploitation of conventional oil:

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:45 | 4492134 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The biggest consumer of oil in the world is the US military.

Peak oil is not the issue. Peak stupidity is.


Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:22 | 4492260 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Why are people posting stuff with zero research.


In a typical day the US military burns 380,000 barrels.

That's what the country of Greece burns.  It's rather a lot less than the country of Japan burns.  Or the country of China.  Of the country of India.  Or the country of . . . . . .

Why didn't you just look it up?


Fri, 02/28/2014 - 23:08 | 4492503 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Whatever the military does, it's a waste.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:48 | 4492144 steelhead23
steelhead23's picture

Yep, rock is denser than oil - and one hell of a lot denser than gas.  Combined with other data, you bet, microgravitational anomolies could certainly make detailed reservoir mapping possible.  It somewhat surprises me that none of the ZH highfliers above even mentioned the investment potential here.  I mean, if this sales pitch works, don't you figure SFD.V will soar?  Its already doubled in price over the last year.  I got no bizness making investment advice, but I may just take a flier on this one.  Be fun to be long something.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:54 | 4492178 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

that was my first thought as well but all that i see here on the comments is screeching about peak oil.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:18 | 4492250 Solarman
Solarman's picture

More like peak stupidity.  Most still think that oil came from the dinosaur period.  There is more and more evidence oil is created from the mantle/crust interface and moves up until it hits impermeable rocks.  Abiotic oil.  We are the idiots that let these elites tell us it is scarce.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:13 | 4492391 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

Who said, aside from abiotic preachers, that oil has anything to do with dinosaurs?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:20 | 4492402 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Abiotic oil? That sounded familiar because I remember I seen a video about something like that. I looked through my bookmarks and sure enough I saved it.

This is a kind of short video, but it's not bloated with a bunch of boring analysis comparing every possible theory on where oil comes from. It's probably the best explanation of abiotic oil that I've saw, and anyone with at least half a brain (and not afraid to use it) can understand it pretty quick.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 11:10 | 4493222 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Queue the wingnuts...

If abiotic oil had anything to due with reality, we we would be drowning in the stuff... Run a simple model taking into account the  hypothesized. Serpentine based proceess, compute the requisite depth for temperature and pressure. Now start it running ~4 billion years ago. To be consistent with observation you are forced into such a small corner of permability/production rate parameter space so as to make the mechanism completely moot...

And then there is the simple fact that every oil field has been assosociated with sedimentary rock and has clear biological tracers in it, complex organic lipids and the like...

Abiotic oil was what is known as a good theory, it existed as an alternative, it made clear testable prediction. But with time it has been shown to incapable of explaining real observations, let alone required to explain any observations...

Call it the Ether of the history of Petroleum Geology  or the equivalent of the Ptolemaic Cosmology....

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 12:38 | 4493510 detached.amusement
detached.amusement's picture

"Abiotic oil was what is known as a good theory, it existed as an alternative, it made clear testable prediction. But with time it has been shown to incapable of explaining real observations, let alone required to explain any observations..", so when that happened, you just simply called the theory garbage?  what a NOVEL idea!


hint hint, that's what you're supposed to do when a model repeatedly proves itself to have no predictive capability - accept its wrongness and limitations thereof, not dictate trillion dollar policies based on the supposed veracity of the model...

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 11:22 | 4493263 superflex
superflex's picture

So your" website" says oil is created at the moho.

Interesting.  I never learned that in my 6 years studying geology or my 21 years working in the field.  I guess the professors and execs in the oil co's want to keep that secret away from us proles.


Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:27 | 4492273 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Why wasn't your first thought that it is nothing new and has been around 10 years?


Come now, with Exxon, Total, RDShell, Chevron and BP all reporting declining oil production, do you really think they're not using the technology?  And still failing?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:10 | 4492225 logicalman
logicalman's picture

You know you are disconnected from reality when you see the destruction of the ecosphere as an 'investment opportunity'

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 20:59 | 4492195 nothing can go wrogn
Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:08 | 4492217 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Natural selection will prevail.

I doubt humans will go 'the way of the dinosaur'

Dinosaurs lasted about 165 million years - humans haven't managed 1 million yet - I have severe doubts that they will.


Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:28 | 4492276 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture


Of course.  Humans will be around for a long time.  Maybe 3 or 4 thousand of them globally.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:43 | 4492310 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I doubt any of them will be bankers or politicians!

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 00:30 | 4492620 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There is a good chance there will be a few kings....

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 21:48 | 4492326 DerdyBulls
DerdyBulls's picture

There's more than we know, people. Hydrocarbons have been discovered in anomalous places like basement rock where no plant or animal life ever existed. Primitive hydrocarbons like methane are also found in the atmospheres of Jupiter, Saturn, and other planets which are uninhabitable. No oxygen, dead animals or plants. Technology always seems to find a way to blunt political issues. Peak oil is deep ecology's and Al Gore's wet dream.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:01 | 4492367 thestarl
thestarl's picture

We know this, its the cost of getting it shit for brains.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 12:45 | 4493570 DerdyBulls
DerdyBulls's picture


ouch, that really hurt


The general movement of technology and trade is toward a greater division of labor, and therefore toward greater productivity. The cost of information is falling, and has fallen systematically since at least the census of 1890, when punch cards were introduced. Physicist denied this as being impossible. They were wrong. For most people, and business, information is the most important thing. The growth of information is speeding up R&D processes. New discoveries are made. How will the economy look if the cost of its major single component, information, continues to fall at a rate of 50% in every twelve-month period? How will energy forms, and production look in light of this. This is one of the main problems with the Peak Oil bunch. Their "theory" rests on the assumption that all information regarding "fossil" fuels and geology is already known.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 07:02 | 4492907 UselessEater
UselessEater's picture

DerdyBulls its too emotive a topic for any rational discussion.... 40+yrs of multiple family members doing the hard yards in oil/gas/geothermal exploration through to production on every single continent/sea bed using traditional/experimental methods onshore and offshore in senior operational positions.... not a single one buys peak oil 'theory' nor the argument of peak due to cost at this point in time nor in the near future and they have watched responsible drilling and walked away from cost-cutting-big-business hell bent on intentionally destroying local communities drinking water and land...

Shell-Beatrix etc do not have an ulterior motive for the shit they pull, the double-speak think tanks they fund and the operational claims they make???



Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:04 | 4492372 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture



US Army colonel: world is sleepwalking to a global energy crisis

Mark C. Lewis, former head of energy research at Deutsche Bank's commodities unit highlighted three problems facing the global energy system: "very high decline rates" in global production; "soaring" investment requirements "to find new oil"; and since 2005, "falling exports of crude oil globally."


Lewis told participants that the International Energy Agency's (IEA) own "comprehensive" analysis in its World Energy Outlook of the 1,600 fields providing 70% of today's global oil supply, show "an observed decline rate of 6.2%" - double the IEA's stated estimate of future decline rate out to 2035 of about 3%.


Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'



Robert Ayres, a scientist and professor at the Paris-based INSEAD business school, wrote recently that a "mini-bubble" is being inflated by shale gas enthusiasts. “Drilling for oil in the U.S. in 2012 was at the rate of 25,000 new wells per year, just to keep output at the same level as it was in the year 2000, when only 5,000 wells were drilled."


Why America's Shale Oil Boom Could End Sooner Than You Think


Scientists Wary of Shale Oil and Gas as U.S. Energy Salvation

Hughes sums up: "Tight oil is an important contributor to the U.S. energy supply, but its long-term sustainability is questionable. It should be not be viewed as a panacea for business as usual in future U.S. energy security planning."


U.S. Shale-Oil Boom May Not Last as Fracking Wells Lack Staying Power

“I look at shale as more of a retirement party than a revolution,” says Art Berman, a petroleum geologist who spent 20 years with what was then Amoco and now runs his own firm, Labyrinth Consulting Services, in Sugar Land, Tex. “It’s the last gasp.”

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 01:02 | 4492658 thestarl
thestarl's picture

Fracking, the Red Queen Syndrome.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 09:30 | 4493010 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

King of Hearts: Rule 42: All wells more than a mile deep must start producing immediately!
Alice: My wells are not a mile deep and they are not producing.
Queen of Hearts: Sorry. Rule 42, you know.


Queen of Hearts: Someone's head IS GOING TO ROLL FOR THIS!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:05 | 4492373 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

A lot of good posts. All this technology and they can't match what the old timers did with some witching rods, or later was done just by some core samples and the like. We have gone all in with tech to produce small finds, or finds with maximum input costs. Fracking is costly in every sense, and I would be surprised if it was anything but short term gain to production. When you see what goes into Tar Sands Mining up in Canada just to get some marginal energy out after energy in, well. Cheap oil built the entire modern world, it allowed the population explosion and the rise of super cities. A lack of cheap oil takes all that onto a downward curve. It is simple physics equations really. I have never understood some people's belief that cheap oil will last forever, this propostition is totally without evidence.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 01:48 | 4492699 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Normalcy bias.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 15:16 | 4494068 Duude
Duude's picture

Perhaps its because the low hanging fruit has been stripped free of the tree of oil.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 22:46 | 4492457 Baldrick
Baldrick's picture

someone is trying to give the nsa a reason to exist.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 00:55 | 4492648 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

"new technology...oil revolution"? all i can tell you is a i got three calls in two days.

one from CO the other two from TX.  time to sell boys

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 01:04 | 4492660 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

If this absurd propaganda doesn't prove that ZH is a front for the skimming operations, then it proves that ZH has no editing credibility. 



Sat, 03/01/2014 - 05:01 | 4492818 daemon
daemon's picture

" Oil majors are second only to the US Defense Department in terms of the use of supercomputing systems ..."

Isn't this some kind of proof of the futility and dangerousness of all the process ?

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 06:48 | 4492895 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Is this a joke? "Chipping away at peak oil concerns"?


Having to spend ever more on techonology and extraction for fewer and fewer barrels is somehow a good thing?


Cheap oil is only a memory now. Get real!

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 08:50 | 4492985 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

The German Army’s Strategic Branch did a study on how declining oil production would affect their national security.  The whole study is available in pdf format and is well worth the read.  The thing that I find most compelling is that the Germany Army finds the solution to survival in permaculture experiments here in the United States.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 09:33 | 4493014 satoshi123
satoshi123's picture

I agree WTF is 4d seismic oil analysis, fuck I was there I did 1d, 2d, and we did 3d.

Now what the fuck does 4D mean? It means time-variant, the problem is that it takes 100Million years for a formation of decayed bio-matter to be 'just-right' and become oil.

So what the fuck would 4d mean in real-time?

Not a fucking thing, ... this has got to be one one of the most stupid fucking ZH posts this week, to beat all prior stupid fucking ZH posts.


On better note tonight Hillary Clinton came out and admitted that she used to send Bill to fuck Monica and other 'pages' with Cigar's because BILL couldn't get it up, due to too much fucking cocaine back the Arkansas years.

Follow DRudge, this is going to be way more interesting that any bullshit about 4D seismic analysis.

Oh it gets better, before HILLARY-2015 sent bill out with the cigars, she would fuck herself, so that way her&bill could fuck the pages with the cigar.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 09:41 | 4493021 negative rates
negative rates's picture

It means you guys were wrong the whole time, the Earth was once a big ball of mostly butane burning sun, that burnt out and as water was added provided a place of dwelling for the Gods of the earth and a new sun to heat things, the olds mars held the water to be used. So one can find old energy stored deep within, or one can make energy from the abundunce of the suns energy. We always have and will continue to do the wrong things when producing energy, we just now have proved it to be wrong and only the consequences need paid attention too. It's that simple. 

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 09:50 | 4493029 negative rates
negative rates's picture

You might need to have your head checked there fellow.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 10:34 | 4493112 superflex
superflex's picture


Sat, 03/01/2014 - 11:59 | 4493367 muleskinner
muleskinner's picture

An instrument called a scintillometer is used to detect radon gas. As a plane flies over a land area, the scintillometer detects radon escaping to the atmosphere and is a measurable quantity, albeit small. Where there is a dip in the needle, it is believed to be a pool of oil. The pool of oil interrupts the flow of the radon gas. The success rate of wells drilled in the sweet spots of the Bakken Formation is 100 percent. There is always oil there. Some wells are not good and are plugged. Oil formed when kerogen heated in the presence of hydrogen and under great pressure. The organic material that becomes kerogen from pressure generated by weight of the mass is going to form oil. When heat and pressure are great enough, oil forms from the process. The oil pools and then becomes trapped. It also becomes trapped in the shale that has kerogen in it and then can produce more oil with constant heat and pressure. That is what is happening down there in the Bakken now. It is always generating more oil. You can drill for the oil that is trapped in the shale of the Middle Bakken. The upper Bakken and the lower Bakken shales are non-producing shale layers that have fissures where the Bakken oil leaks out and into the Three Forks and the Lodgepole formations. In March of 1983, production of oil was at 4,461,251 barrels of oil. In February of 1994, the production was 2,124,766 barrels. A 50 percent plus decline in production in 10 years time. December of 2013 oil production was 28,620,049 barrels of oil total monthly production in North Dakota. That's a 14 fold increase.

Peak Oil is when the amount of oil produced does not meet the demand or is plateaued with the demand. People want oil, so the demand is always there, inelastic. The demand will never go away. You're not going to run a farm tractor on solar energy. You are going to need some diesel fuel and a big diesel engine. Vegetable oil will work, like peanut oil, the original diesel fuel and the diesel engine was invented by Rudolph Diesel so farmers could grow their own fuel and not depend upon any other fuel source. Don't need any stinking oil if you can grow your fuel. Me thinks life will go on with or without oil, just the way things are.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 12:54 | 4493611 Ms No
Ms No's picture

     I find myself wondering if any of you have any opinions on what the future angle is with coal.  Whether one believes in man made global warming aside, I think we can all agree that politicians have no concern for the environment or us.  Coal one of the last cheap resources is taking some heavy heat right now.

    Are the Dick Cheney types squashing coal temporarily for their big NG scam.... then going to ramp it up later???  Wondering what the angle is.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 15:34 | 4494129 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Simple - the angle, from these fucks is money and power. It's all they can think of.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 16:04 | 4494217 Schaublin
Schaublin's picture

Coal could (and did) sustain a Victorian era level of living. We are going back there - minus a few billion people and some wars on the way.

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 14:39 | 4493959 rustymason
rustymason's picture

Does this mean that little faggot James Howard Kunstler will finally shut his Jewish flapper?

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 14:44 | 4493972 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Whats the matter?

Can't handle the truth?

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 16:01 | 4494206 ThorAss
ThorAss's picture

Well as a geophysical interpreter of seismic for over 30 years, let me just say that this article is sensationalism and leave it at that. There is no revolution on the horizon, just a slow steady evolution. As for "spy technology" WTF?


Sun, 03/02/2014 - 17:09 | 4498445 MountainMan
MountainMan's picture
The oil majors have been using airborne gravity and mag for donkey's years. Nothing new there. This new technique is perhaps a slight refinement, but to call it revolutionary is going a bit far.
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