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Pending Home Sales Beat And Miss Expectations At Same Time, Weather Blamed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If only it wasn't for that pesky GDP print, it would have been 4 out of 4 beats today. Well, three and a half: moments ago the Pending Home Sales number was released and showed a tiny 0.1% increase in January activity, compared to the expected 1.8%. The means that the data has bounced the smallest possible bounce off the lowest print since November 2011. But don't worry: in the same release we found that the data also beat, because on a year over year basis, sales declined by "only" 9.1%, compared to the -10.8% expected. So this is great news. Finally, just in case someone focused on the bad news instead of the good news, NAR's Larry Yun made it quite clear that it was the weather's fault: "Ongoing disruptive weather patterns in much of the U.S. inhibited home shopping."

Putting the number in perspective.

More from the report:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that factors which dampened December activity also were at play in January. “Ongoing disruptive weather patterns in much of the U.S. inhibited home shopping,” he said. “Limited inventory also is playing a role, especially in the West, while credit remains tight and affordability isn’t as favorable as it was a year ago.”

 

The December index reading was the lowest since November 2011, when it stood at 94.6.

 

Existing-home sales are expected to be weak in the first quarter, while prices continue to rise from limited inventory. “Increasing new home construction can quickly solve two problems, producing more inventory and taming price growth,” Yun said.

 

The pace of sales should pick up in the middle part of the year. Total existing-home sales are projected at just over 5.0 million in 2014, slightly below the volume recorded last year. The national median existing-home price is forecast to grow in the range of 5 to 6 percent this year.

Momentarily we will show the regional breakdown in sales confirm that the NAR lied once again.

 

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Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:20 | 4488990 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Except in Chicago ;)

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:22 | 4489002 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

Blowout the number before revisions igniting momentum in stocks, then when revisions start coming out you can say that it doesn't matter because it is a lagging indicator.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:26 | 4489013 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

All of these beats and misses are being controlled by those that are controlling the language and we are assisiting them.

 

End the reporting of beats and misses.  Instead, report the numbers, compare them to last month and and last year, report the actual change, and leave it at that.

Down 9% from a year ago, but beating estimates....what the hell does that tell anyone?

Down 9% from a year ago says it most clearly.

And report the 12 month numbers NOT seasonally adjusted.  Any 12 month period does NOT need to be adjusted.

Performance comparisons to estimates are propaganda.

 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:26 | 4489019 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

hmmmm doesn't seem to be good news for those super cool online real estate sites

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:44 | 4489030 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

It's like when you drop you pants for a chick and apologise for your 2 incher, but she says "hey, from you I was only expecting 1.5 inches" and you reply "YES! I beat expectations!"

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:29 | 4489047 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

I bet Yun smokes a lot of crack.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:32 | 4489061 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

get to work mr. yellen, the weather is no excuse

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:32 | 4489062 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

I'd love to see the state-by-state stats on these supposed sales...

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:48 | 4489139 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Yeee-hah!!!!

 

Time to move back to Detroit!!!!!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:58 | 4489187 nakki
nakki's picture

WTF is "home shopping"? Douchebag Larry makes it sound like you're going down to pick up a gallon of milk at the grocery store, or going online to pick up some pots and pans.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 12:04 | 4489217 IREN Colorado
IREN Colorado's picture

It is a very strange market. Local shortages of inventories are driving price increases in some markets but we don't see people buying-up into bigger better homes like we used too. Instead folks are moving only if they have to or just hunkering down. In Colorado we have allot of folks moving from the coasts and buying homes on acreage where they can own their own well and septic system and raise chickens.

What’s that about?  <sarcasm alert>

While foreign cash is looking for something, anything, to hold onto the USG is well on its way to being the US's biggest corporate land lord by not selling, not foreclosing, or selling to portfolio managers in return for political / financial support. They are making sure there are allot of apartments being built by the regular cast of FOOs* (go long section VIII housing). Fannie and Freddie are almost the only game in town for Mortgage Insurance so the US taxpayer is still the guarantor of every resort.

 

To describe this market as "manipulated" would be a gargantuan understatement.

 

 

*FOO = Friend of Obama (& the wookie)

 

 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 12:09 | 4489248 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"Honey, I have 'good-news, and good-news. I lost my job and can spend more time with you and the kids, but the electric bill is lower than I expected. Great huh?!"

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 12:18 | 4489295 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Al Roker's new job, financial "excuse" guy.

"Today a heavy weight on housing sales will be blowing in from the West. While from the East will be another excuse for lowered retails sales."

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 12:50 | 4489529 Kasperfx
Kasperfx's picture

you know were in for a big issues when even the fudged numbers don't look good. 

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