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Primary Dealer Treasury Coupon Holdings Drop To September 2011 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While it is unclear why it happened, in the most recent week of Fed data, February 19, Primary Dealer holdings of Coupon securities tumbled by $21 billion, to just $2.3 billion. As the chart below show this is curious because the last time PD holdings of coupon securities was this low was in September of 2011, suggesting that in the middle of the month dealers were dumping coupon paper aggressively even though this did not impact the prevailing price of the various maturity buckets, considering the bond complex continues to grind higher in 2014 despite panicked warnings by the punditry that all Treasury holdings must be sold.

It is unclear what caused the recent divestment of coupon paper: according to Credit Agricoles' David Keeble "dealers appear to have mostly returned to the new low inventory norm that prevailed prior to Operation Twist and that has simply taken time to achieve again."

This plunge in coupons was however more than offset by a surge in Bill holdings, which rose from $19.7 billion in the week ending February 12 to $42.5 billion most recently, the highest Bill holdings since December 25.

One possible explanation is provided by Stone McCarthy:

The average value of dealers' overall Treasury coupon position fell to just $2.342 billion during the week from $23.436 billion the prior week. That is the smallest average Treasury coupon position since the week ended September 28, 2011.

 

Dealers' net long average Treasury bill position jumped to $42.491 billion during the week from $19.727 billion the prior week. Their average net long bill position had been jut $12.911 billion two week's prior, which was the smallest for bills since the week ended October 31, 2012. The drop was not unexpected, as Treasury had been paying down bills for weeks in order to position ahead of the debt ceiling deadline. The most recent position, on the other hand, is the largest since the end of last year, as Treasury has ramped up bill auctions in a major way since, including CMBs and we expect Dealer bill holdings will continue to reflect that over the next few weeks.

So was the Coupon holdings plunge just a weekly rebalancing as Bills were bought, or is something more peculiar going on? The last time Coupon positions were net short was during Operation Twist, and prior to that, during the Old Normal, in which all excess dealer capital was invested in equities and corporate bonds with net TSY short positions used as an interest rate hedge.

The only problem is that this time around there is no comparable jump in corporate holdings of IG or HY paper, and thus the drop has nothing to do with hedging IR risk, and if anything is or maybe was likely a liquidity play, to get out of more illiquid coupon paper and get into the "safety" of cash-like Bills.

Either way, keep an eye on this series: should the collapse in coupon holdings it may be a near-real time indicator of a phase change at least through the perspective of the Dealer community/

 

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Fri, 02/28/2014 - 15:14 | 4490297 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Knock knock.

Who's there?

Taper.

Fuck off.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 15:16 | 4490308 knukles
knukles's picture

Dealers dumping paper?
Prices went up.
Sounds more to me like somebody(ies) were on a fucking buying spree.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 15:17 | 4490316 ACP
ACP's picture

Knock knock.

Who's there?

The NSA fucking with ZH Because I keep getting access denied with several posts.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 15:31 | 4490397 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

 


CNN Claims "Americans Want Security Over Freedom"

 

HOW MUCH TO GAIN ACCESS TO THIS POST???????????

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:16 | 4491758 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Who's there? 

Delivery guy with nail gun.

Aren't we due?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 15:21 | 4490339 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Ok, back to the perpetual watching for the implosion of the US financial system.  

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 15:22 | 4490344 Spungo
Spungo's picture

ok so what does this mean? Why does it matter if primary dealers are not holding treasuries?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 16:01 | 4490504 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

One of these 4, or possibly a fifth.

 

1)  It's the start of the right shoulder of a head-n-shoulder pattern starting with the Louisiana Purchase.

2)  The droning sound you hear might be the Hindenburg Omen,  or just a drone - who knows.

3) The [Japanese | Chinese | European ] (choose one) bond market will collapse when they find out.

4) Janet will need to [print more | taper less | call Ben for the keys to the executive bathroom]

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 15:25 | 4490364 fuu
fuu's picture

In other news reverse repo's surged to $114,479,000,000 and now at 5 basis points.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_140225.html

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 15:28 | 4490382 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Scotty - "I can't hold her together much longer Captain. She's gonna bl............"

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 15:29 | 4490385 TimmyM
TimmyM's picture

Stupid dealers fear the taper right in the face of global deflationary collapse. Ha!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 16:05 | 4490528 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Somebody else is doing the buying, that's for sure. It ain't China either. At this point, who knows if the NY Fed isn't operating some trading desk in the Bahamas or something. Perhaps that's what the Bernank was talking about when he was saying they're not out of bullets...

Sat, 03/01/2014 - 02:34 | 4492730 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

I miss the Privateer in moments like this.  Cheers Mr Buckler

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