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Revised Q4 GDP Tumbles 26% From Initial Estimate To 2.4%; Personal Consumption Hit

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for that blow out initial estimate of Q4 GDP that had annualized GDP at 3.2%. One month later and the number has been cut by 25% to 2.4% following a substantial downward revision to Personal Consumption, which dropped from 3.3% to 2.6%, well below the 2.9% expected. As a percentage of the acual annualized GDP number, it dropped from 2.26% to 1.73%. The other components in the calculation that had material revisions were inventories which added just 0.14% to GDP vs 0.42% in the last revision and 1.67% in Q3, as the destocking from record high inventory build up levels continues to take a bite out of growth; offsetting this was an increase in the Fixed investment estimate from 0.14% to 0.58%. Which in turn means that even more CapEx growth was pulled back into last year than previously expected, suggesting further downward cuts to Q1 2014 GDP are coming. Finally, the government deducted -1.05% from Q4 GDP as opposed to the 0.93% estimated previously.

And now, we await for the downward Q1 GDP revisions as sellside economists realize the US consumer was not nearly as strong as had been initially expected.

Source: BEA

 

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Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:46 | 4488373 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

lets c...

this is of course BULLISH for the Fruad Market and obviously bad news for the only 2 forms of REAL MONEY...

did i win?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:47 | 4488384 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Youch'

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:51 | 4488401 drchris
drchris's picture

This proves retrocausality. Obviously, Q1 2014 weather caused Q4 2013 GDP to drop. 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:55 | 4488422 Duude
Duude's picture

In the 4th quarter, they consented Al Gore about global warming and got themselves up to speed on the inevitability of climate change. 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:58 | 4488453 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I won't point out what should be obvious: biflation is killing the real economy everywhere.

But your standard of living is of no concern.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:19 | 4488580 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

I Smell MOARRRRRR.......Bulltard nonsense manipulation.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:17 | 4488571 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

lol but any good news will be green shoots not a temporary upturn due to wamer weather

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:25 | 4488624 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

lets c if this magiacally disappears from Bloombergs pages as well....

All Down

Abrantes-Metz and Metz screened intraday trading in the spot gold market from 2001 to 2013 for sudden, unexplained moves that may indicate illegal behavior. From 2004, they observed frequent spikes in spot gold prices during the afternoon call. The moves weren’t replicated during the morning call and hadn’t happened before 2004, they found.

Large price moves during the afternoon call were also overwhelmingly in the same direction: down. On days when the authors identified large price moves during the fix, they were downwards at least two-thirds of the time in six different years between 2004 and 2013. In 2010, large moves during the fix were negative 92 percent of the time, the authors found.

There’s no obvious explanation as to why the patterns began in 2004, why they were more prevalent in the afternoon fixing, and why price moves tended to be downwards, Abrantes-Metz said in a telephone interview this week.

“This is a first attempt to uncover potentially manipulative behavior and the results are concerning,” she said. “It’s down to regulators to establish why there are such striking patterns but banks have the means, motive and opportunity to manipulate the fixing. The results are consistent with the possibility of collusion.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-28/gold-fix-study-shows-signs-of-d...

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:47 | 4488380 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

And, Taper-Off in 3,... 2,... 1,...

 

 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:47 | 4488382 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

and yet this guy Bullard is on TV all morning discussing why the fed will continue to taper because it expects growth in 2075 and core inflation ticked up .000000001% last year.

This while the 10yr yield continues to fall. So what does that make absolutely clear? QE was never about creating jobs. Also, believe it or not, there is a massive buying spree of U.S treasuries taking place. That seems to be why the fed is tapering, because they need to make room for everyone else. 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:49 | 4488390 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

QE was never about creating jobs. Also, believe it or not, there is a massive buying spree of U.S treasuries taking place.

Welcome to the darkside..

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:51 | 4488403 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yep, Bullard's smugness says it all. He must be exerting some serious self control to not just bust out laughing like a maniac.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:33 | 4488678 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I expected him to start tap dancing while waving a glittered baton around.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:30 | 4489051 irishlink
irishlink's picture

Create uncertainty all over the globe so there is a run on Treasurys and this allows Yellen to taper . How clever!! Or have I been watching too much House of Cards. The GAME of leadership continues with all it"s glorious evil EGO and power grabs.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:57 | 4488395 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

All this QE was ever about was recapitalizing bankrupt banks. Anything else was just bullshit.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:05 | 4488493 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

The real reason for tapering: There are not enough MBS's available to buy.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:50 | 4488398 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

"QE was never about creating jobs."  Indeed.  Money-laundering doesn't create jobs.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:51 | 4488405 Duude
Duude's picture

Make no mistake, the Fed isn't tapering because they believe the economy is growing fast enough, they're tapering because they know QE was a stupid thing to do and they don't want to do stupid into perpetuity.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:55 | 4488426 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I don't know about that.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:57 | 4488444 Maximilien Robe...
Maximilien Robespierre's picture

What part of 100's of trillions of dollars in unfunded liabilities isnt already stupid into perpetuity?

 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:37 | 4488711 RSloane
RSloane's picture

You're joking right? FOMC minutes are readily available. They're certain they saved the economy and now can slowly take it off life-support. They want more foreign capital flowing in and to reach that goal they have to, as Fonz said, make room for it.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:59 | 4488457 economisery
economisery's picture

Also, believe it or not, there is a massive buying spree of U.S treasuries taking place.

Sure,  I have no problem believing that.

The incredulous part is that this buying spree is happening in tandem with fresh record highs being set in equity markets.....

 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:48 | 4488389 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

It was the weather.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 19:39 | 4491871 SDShack
SDShack's picture

0zer0care sticker shock bitchez! Soon to be followed by 0zer0care wallet shock this quarter.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:49 | 4488392 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Well, obviously, buy Google, Tesla, NFLX, LinkedIn, FB, Amazon and Apple.  What else could it mean? Duh...

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:51 | 4488409 Orly
Orly's picture

Ha!  The only Data I know was a character on that new Star Trek show a while back.

Let's pile on the all-time highs!

:/

(This is beyond stupid....)

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:56 | 4488434 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

maybe, but we have a lot more stupid to go.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:55 | 4488429 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Every person should own physical Gold....what are they waiting for ??

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:34 | 4488681 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Time, because time waits for no one.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:56 | 4488431 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Wall street will cheer this news!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:58 | 4488449 Eahudimac
Eahudimac's picture

The S&P will close up at least 20 points higher today.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:07 | 4488503 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

you may be saying that sarcastically, but in this fucking fraud of a market it will deff close green, maybe not 20, but prob like 8-9 pts when we should be down at least 30 considering how overbought it is and how bad the gdp number was.

 

Then again, as we all know, fundamentals do not matter and as long as all these fucking dirtbags get to see there etrade accounts green on the day, that is all that matters.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:58 | 4488872 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

Just don't be the last guy holding the dirtbag when the door starts to close.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:58 | 4488450 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Bullish,100 billion per month on the way.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:59 | 4488461 The Count
The Count's picture

 

If I was constanly wrong in my forecasts as the official bureaus are I would be out of a job in a jiffy.

Wait, they are not really that stupid? Just being told from the powers that be how to fudge the numbers continuously?

Well then its all OK.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:07 | 4488506 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Seems especially stupid since BEA has deployed a new plug number for GDP called ' intellectual property '

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/28/your-money/getting-creative-with-the-gdp.html?_r=0

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 11:44 | 4489114 The Count
The Count's picture

This is all so totally bizarre and crazy that it boggles the mind. The number fudging has reached epic proportions and yet the financial media just swallows these shit sandwiches and barely lifts an eyebrow.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:08 | 4488512 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

So tear up the voluminous 2014 Economic Outlook reports.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:09 | 4488514 TruthDecalscom
TruthDecalscom's picture
So if you factor in the new way to calculate GDP adding 2.5% to 3% adopted back in March 2013, add subtract that from today's 2.4%, we're in RECESSION LAND?
Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:59 | 4488880 Bytor325
Bytor325's picture

Official Govt GDP calculation (From Federal Register 32CFR1820.684)

Pull random number out of ass.  Divide by '0'.  Add "Finagles Constant'. 

Publish, pat self on back, hold press conference touting growth.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:13 | 4488529 egiscodr
egiscodr's picture

It's all an illusion to keep people from seeing how bad things really are. Are we in another recession or a depression? Low unemployment because people stop being counted. GDP calculation changed to make it look like growth is there and prevent people from seeing the economy is contracting. Fed backing off purchases to make it appear things are better.

Market euphoria is getting out of hand. It looks more and more like a major crash is coming.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:14 | 4488543 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

This must be bullish... and that explosive hockey stick growth that is right around the corner will be all that much more impressive...

FUBAR.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:18 | 4488574 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

And nobody sees the dispicable forged numbers?  Truly amazing!  BUY BUY BUY!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:21 | 4488593 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Nobody wants to see it. Just imagine what the number would be without the GDP revision factor.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:19 | 4488579 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Weather related - foreplay...now they can continue the serious screwing.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:22 | 4488606 Fiat Burner
Fiat Burner's picture

Are we going to undo the ramp that happend after the release of the original number? Oh no, of course not....

 

Oh look, here comes the ususal pre-open futures ramp...

 

I hope these fuckers push this market so fucking high that it sparks a revolution due to the massive wealth inequality that it is creating.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:25 | 4488628 Saratoga
Saratoga's picture

GDP has become meaningless.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:37 | 4488715 madcows
madcows's picture

Correction:  GDP has been meaningless for as long as the hacks have manipulated it for political motives.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:44 | 4488763 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

It is just a shitty manipulative equation like a magic 8 ball with a magnet inside.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:30 | 4488656 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

gdp ... give or take 26% ...

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:31 | 4488663 moman
moman's picture

The poor dumb sheeple are suffering from a dangerous form of cognitive dissonance as the banksters rape them silly!

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:35 | 4488667 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

Neighbors just dropped 10K on Palm Trees for front yard....all is well it seems.

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:32 | 4488672 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Looks awesome...nothing to worry about here...
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=szP

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:37 | 4488714 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Not enough POMO to levitate TESLA today?

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 10:45 | 4488764 Double R
Double R's picture

bad news... BULLISH!

 

Fri, 02/28/2014 - 12:01 | 4489209 ilovemilken
ilovemilken's picture

Janet Yellen can't open up that checkbook fast enough.

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