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US Equity Futures Open Down 1% - Erase Friday's Melt-Up Close
Surprise! The pump on Friday afternoon has given way to the 5th 'dump' in 5 days as US equity futures have crumbled back top Friday's lows and are catching down to USDJPY's early weakness. Gold is up $10 at $1,338. It seems once again that stocks, despite all those talking heads on Friday afternoon so confidently explaining how Ukraine was priced-in, knew nothing... US Treasury futures are well bid implying 10Y -5bps at 2.60% and 5Y -4bps at 1.46%.
USDJPY in charge...
As the "efficient" stock market catches down to reality./..
Treasuries are rallying on safe-haven bid...
Charts: Bloomberg
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"The 10,000 Things rise and fall without cease."
Lao-Tse
Talking Heads: The Ukraine's all priced in.
Paul Krugman: This economy is growing like Joe Biden's hair-plugs
Sarah Palin: See I toldja so
Kingboi: What National Security Meeting? Nobody told me.
Foghorn Leghorn: That boy is so dumb he thinks the Mexican border pays rent.
Get that printer warmed up!
CTRL+P is now in macro mode.
Dow 30K or bust.
Seriously, or bust.
There is up and there is over, as in game over.
There is no growth, and it is showing in the equity markets.
Not even an $80B/mo bond buying program can fix that.
Gold is starting it's reserve currency flight to safety role also...
03.02 Gold Opens with a tad bit of Ukrainian Urgency up $7+ early
Just buy the dip, help a brother out! I covered my eminis from friday and now my short notes are lonely.
C'mon, you know you want some more spoos, they are still good I promise!
Green shoots man! Green shoots and the new paradigm!
OK, but at what point our Clown-in-Chief starts dry-humping his teleprompter? ;-)
Looney
Now if Putin really IS the pimp everyone claims he is, he'll really rattle the ol USA with a wink wink to Iran and Syria to unleash the dogs and shut that strait of Hormuz down for a couple weeks!!! If you want to see American markets absolutely shit themselves with fear, have that cross the ticker on a Wednesday afternoon about 1pm Eastern local!!
Putin knows I think, that this house of cards is just one international economic shock from being absolutely exposed and the dominoes will fall like rain!! Theses cats fancy themselves the victors of WWII with 20 million killed, you don't think they can't weather 2-3 years of chaos???
The American EBT addicted population, I'm not so sure and everyone here better hope we never have to find out!
you are assuming putin and the Joows are on different teams. I am not ready to make that assumption.
Me neither, more likely I see this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PJzK35hMrU
Exactly.
ZH reports the prices of these things and doesn't even mention the only price that matters, oil.
I know they have to troll for clicks, but my God, how can they look in the mirror after reporting gold but not oil.
Or perhaps you should consider that the USD simply isn't considered 'safety' anymore.
And for good reason.
Chinese Physical Gold Demand YTD 369t Up 51 % Y/Y
http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/chinese-physical-gold-demand-ytd-up-51
Gonna be a nice week to own PM's
Time for the next melt up.... asset prices cant fall or the over-leveraged markets will start to show "reality" again.
Actually, reality really lies somewhere around the 1400 mark. Still got a long way to go yet....
In what world is S&P 1400 fair value???????????
I see 666 as fair value
maybe talkin' about Dow....?
Here comes the gold smash as obvious as ever... the last COT showed a 41% increase in commercial shorts over the past 2 weeks. Can't have the price going up now...
a gold standard of say...$1500 an ounce...is definitely on the table.
and yes "Ukraine is priced in."
once that Maiden is slaughtered there is no "European back up."
The Swedish krona looks good.
Heeee......Heeee......Fut down big. ES trading below 1842. Keep pounding, bears.
Sell bitchez!!
green by the US open? c'mon! BTFD!! Oh wait, the Fed doesn't control Russia's military movements? this should be interesting. get K Henry on the phone!
you had it right with the first sentence.
The Fed obviously cannot taper during an international crisis
Fuck the taper, the ghost of "tanks in the streets" puts in play all sorts of heretofore unimaginable "extraordinary measures" to confront the "risks and uncertainties" of an "international crisis".
Check your wallets... the Central Bank cannot a let a good crisis go to waste in their effort to provide value to their shareholders.
This isn't Rocket Science. Dick-Fuck-Suck Soros Shorted the S&Poop for 1.3 Billion and donated Millions to the Ukraine Protestors. You do the math....
The math is Putin pissed in their Cheerios.
Earthquakes and tidal waves haven't shaken this bull. Lets see if WAR might knock down the FED a bit.
To the Gold and Silver bank shorts:
Suck Putins dick bitchez!
Only to have the losses erased in the first 15 minutes of trading tomorrow. Got burned each time this happened the last two weeks and this time I'm not falling for it. The magical overnight levitation should begin just as soon as most traders go to bed tonight. Like clockwork. Think Lucy...football...Charlie Brown. How many times can they keep tricking the bears?
i'll take the over that by the time i wake in the morning it will be a non event and the market may be down ooohhh i don;t know say 20 pts and will be in the green by close as they re price in a resolution
Central banks playing 'Wag the Dog' with Ukraine while economies start to meltdown...
www.TopTheNews.com
Black swan.
Nope ... this one looks like a U-crane.
Buy to the sound of cannons, buy to the sound of trumpets? Indeed. Buy to the sound of your Aunt Emma passing gas.
BTFD...
Gold already down to 1333, silver barely positive
Have faith.
Say it with me.
Gold bitchez!
"long pillboxes."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pillbox_(military)
you don't strike me as the type of guy who would know so i thought i'd give you a little "wiki love."
Now's a good time to sell me some put options. It'll recover!
All eyes on FX, see if EU/American so to be sanctions on Russia will slam down Ruble, as Russia turns off the oil/gas. Ukraine cuts it's grain exports to Russia.
It will get out of hand real quick.
Russian trench warfare preparations:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405635
Gold has opened above the 12 month moving average.
First time this has happened in almost a year.
Food for thought from FOFOA:
Consider the amount of oil that is used daily. Consider the future value that this consumption places on reserves in the ground. Compare this to the amount of gold consumed daily. Notice I said "consumed daily", not "traded daily". Clearly, the consumption of oil compared to the consumption of gold places a much higher value on oil reserves than gold reserves. With no replacement for the use of oil ( at present to lower prices ) and no "needed" use for gold in today's thought, we have the ingredients for a mismatch in value of epic proportions!"
The good times are over. Mark it zero.
I'm calling the top.
nope, still more junk bonds to be sliced and diced over at jpm
Not just yet. The monthly isn't done making new highs yet.
i said this in another thread, but to sum it up, there is not one person on this board who should expect markets to be down tomm.
even if futures r red in morning, gurantee market is green or way off its lows by 10 am or shortly thereafter.
this is just to justify another 20 percent leg up in the dow and s&p when fools like bob pisani say '' well markets r in the green now because ''investors'' like what they hear out of ukraine now and think the worst case will be avoided''.
so despite the fact that we will have not sold off more than 1 percent in the markets, they will ramp it up over the next few weeks sharply by using the ukraine not as bad as perceieved excuse, just like they make a big deal about a non factor like the debt ceiling and run the market up on that as well.
I hope you're wrong but you're probably going to be right. However, maybe this is the Black Swan... Russia might be tired of playing the game.
Who cares what is or isn't the "black swan"? It's just as probable that it will be the obvious thing.
i hope i am wrong as well, trust me, i want to see the markets crash as much as anyone on here does.
i want panic on wall st, i want bankers jumping, i want full chaos ensuing amongst those pigs, but we have seen this movie script too often and we know how it ends.
Why would Russia (more accurately, the Russian political class) be "tired of playing the game"? They and their cronies - along with the rest of the global political class - are still making out like absolute fucking bandits.
This is not like the early part of the 20th century, where the political class was prepared to sleepwalk into war. It's not like the late 1930s, where Germany really did genuinely have a leadership that was vehemently opposed to the control sought by the centres of global finance capital.
The fucking scumbag politicans have raised their 'craft' to almost its apotheosis: periodic sabre-rattling to keep the proles scared and compliant; the occasional 'show of force' against someone too small to resist; howls of outrage from other fucknards who have just finished doing exactly the same thing... and all the while, the blood funnel sucks production away from those who make stuff, and gives it to the cronies of the political class. And that happens in every corner of the globe - from the shit-poor regions of Africa (where aid money builds palaces for despots) to the Arab world and the 'cultured' West.
The costs of doing a big show like 1914-18 or 1939-45 - those two wars where the US organised to get involved AFTER all sides were almost exhausted - is too high: if there was a 'big show' it would not be Panzer divisions against Shermans, infantry divisions digging trenches, "curtain' artillery" and battleships lobbing ordnance at each other over-the-horizon. it weould not even be manouevre warfare (the kind mastered by the Wehrmacht in 1939-40 and emulated by USMC Recon today).
Any 'big show' would be Minuteman IIIs flying in one direction, and R-26 Rubezh flying in the other... hundreds of millions dead in minutes, and no opportunity for cronies to profit risklessly.
That last bold phrase is why it won't happen.
I dislike you very much right now. Why? Because that is likely what will happen.
Logic would dictate that global instability would disturb the makets ever opimistic status quo; however my instincts tell me that the U.S. is more likely to react to Oscar gowns and upsets than "something goin on in Russia or something".
As long as QE continues equities will be overvalued. It's just that simple.
This is likely just a short trap that will lead to an even bigger bull trap this week. This takedown is way too suspect. I want it to tank as bad as anyone but I just don't believe this yet.
Are you calling Jim Cramer a liar?
And an asshole.
Who will yell fire in the theater? Who has the most profit in crushing S&P?
Nothing but the Eternal Federal Put and Fairy Dust happy endings are priced into US stocks.
This is what the West will do...
Attack the Ruble:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/mar/02/john-kerr...
Increase grain prices while tariffs on imported Wheat (into US)
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/markets-grains-idINL3N0LX2ZB201...
Hit Russia with inflation (food/oil) and sweat'em out. Vlad could lose it and order a complete invasion. That would be bad.
Bad vibes...market will take a big hit. Gold will be super bid. Vlad took out Bitcoin (to stem outflows pre Crimea invasion), stocks are done, be interesting to see if USTs will be bid. All we need now is China making on Japan
"Vlad took out Bitcoin"
Now that's a funny story
here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/09/us-russia-bitcoin-idUSBREA1806...
It added that Russian law stipulates that the rouble is the sole official currency and that introducing any other monetary units or substitutes was illegal.
"Citizens and legal entities risk being drawn - even unintentionally - into illegal activity, including laundering of money obtained through crime, as well as financing terrorism," it warned.
FX/trade and economic warfare is always the first play, before the boots on the ground. One one of most sophisticated widespread attacks on Bitcoin took place before the 'invasion.'
Sanctions on Russia will send them back into another crisis like 1998. https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2013/september/the-russian-c...
Clearly Russia has always been insignificant in bitcoin usage.
http://thegenesisblock.com/mapping-bitcoin-adoption-a-global-perspective/
Then why would they care? Capital controls are always a pre-curser before war, plus Russia, if you read my post, got a major beat down in 1998 when The Rouble collapse + bonds and stocks. Look at the oil price now, wheat/corn all now going bid, sanctions are a smokescreen to trade war, all countries now, which will f*ck Europe sideways, could impose widespread capital controls. I'd stay the f*ck away form Bitcoin and buy gold. Right now
trade war?
bwhahahahahaha. "you're gonna get the real thing."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embargo
not that i see anything standing in the way of "Brother Russia" here.
After Kiev comes Warsaw?
and dont forget what friday is.
jobs report, or lack of, but either way, there can be a nuclear war taking place, markets will be up triple digits on jobs report day because '' its jobs report day'' and u.s markets can never go down on jobs day.
The TBTF banks with FED and Treasury gravy (taxpayer money) will go and buy up a bunch of defense related stocks just to make sure the Washington/Wall Street/MIC circle jerk doesn't get interrupted.
Guess who gets to clean up the mess?
Everything is under control - until it isn't.
Oh what glorious cover for a pullback. The market was way ahead of itself and the economy had obviously slowed, now they can blame it all on Russia with no loss in "confidence" by Joe and Jane 401(k)
I'm surprised this international conflict isn't raising the price of bitcoins. They're such a good store of value.
Now China is up:
Reacting to news Nth Korea fired two missiles into sea off their east coast
Seoul's Yonhap reporting: JPY from around 101.45 to 101.26
No nuclear war will happen. I grew up during the end of cold war mantra. In pre-school, they sent you in the hallways for tornado drills. You hid under your wooden desk for nuclear bomb drills. By four, or fifth grade, nuclear bomb drills vanished. Ronald Reagan wasn’t even in office until my early teens years.
Don't let these people in Govenment drive you into fear. They're servants working for you.
they are servants but they aren't working for YOU
No shit. What's plan B?
try hard to not be one of the casualties
How can I be a casualty if I live in the USA. buzzsaw99 , you’re not planning to set off an attack on the US are you?
Never under estimate my abilities. Got it? Whoever you really are, we will protect our US country as did Putin with Ukraine.
damn, you are deranged!
Not really.
1) Mis-read your posting when you tell me not to be a casualty. Raised flags of concern.
2) Believed you’re a EU scumbag.
3) If I mis-judged you, my apologies. No hard feelings. [hand shake?]
Why would a tornado and nuclear bomb have different training? Don't both involve powerful gusts of wind knocking shit over?
Concrete walls for tornados, wooden desk’s for nuclear bombs. You would of fit right in for the emergency planning chairman position. Just a childhood memory of times back then. Nothing more.
Remember the drills well - recall also the "Fallout Shelter" sign affixed near the entrances to old brick and concrete elementary schools. Ah, Cold War days.
The soldiers digging trenches makes me believe this is going to deflate, and real soon. Nobody is marching over those lines, nobody. Crimea will hold UN sanctioned elections and either go full Russia (Most likely) or be some kind of rinky dink satellite for Putin to beat his meat over.
Or this shit escalates out of control and everyone eats a nuke sandwich. I don't like the odds of that happening, but Kerry is just so over the top in his remarks...But then I remember, this whole thing is an act, like WWF, only cornier and with uglier and more out of shape people. Fucking lame ass, elite bitches. They've grown soft over the years...
why is china carrying so much us debt when the trade is ?
as a matter of fact as the us threatens russia with sanctions , will putin follow suit ?
technology always flows to the highest bidder no matter what allegiance one has?
just ask the nwo globalist?!?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign_exchange_reserves
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/rus/eng/currus.htm
"Gold is up $10 at $1,338."
Even that tiny increase won't last. Those buying (paper) gold now are still doing it for the wrong reasons: to make more paper dollars.
Until they get religion and learn that "return-OF-capital" is the only thing that counts, there's no hope for them and no change for us...
Do not need financial Black Swan to appear as a result of Ukraine---- just some partisan or disgruntled Slav who lost his job with a match near a pipeline to disrupt nat gas flow to Europe. Negative multiplier effect on price of energy, EU productivity, interest rates, etc. Risk priced in ?
Sorry to use this link. Exposing the pimped players and news rag source, goes a long way.
EU Foreign Ministers to hold Monday new emergency meeting on the situation in Ukraine
http://www.ejpress.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48278&catid=11
Maybe the 4th is the BIG ONE!
By 10 am tomorrow we will know as usual.
Oil going major bid 2%, gold up, 1% negs on futures. Double top and there goes the dow twenty thousand...
chump I feel like we have seen this 100 times, only to wake up to a totally different scenario. I am going to bed early tonight. Maybe that will shake things up.
Exactly--some kind of financial Heisenberg principle--if I look at it, I affect it. Usually it goes against the way I want it to, so it's best that I never look!
no we have not, unfortunately.
but it has been war gamed.
"ever since 1944" actually.
Almost 70 years to the day.
Probably 100,000 times actually.
We knew that soon Russian and American Armies would meet on the Battlefield...where the US and Russians Generals would get together and form "the New European Order."
That's why this "feel" surreal.
History "that big" is like an echo chamber...like you've "been here" before...even though you haven't.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7jwYpAM6RU
it's a good flick pop culture always reflects reality.
this is one of my favs:
http://youtu.be/4rN-AL57PRI
We will see if the impaler wants payback on Germany...He just might through Poland.
Seems that way for sure. Remeber when I said wash cycle? Damn history.
Japan is currently getting monkey fisted.
Now watch it reverse.
Typical ZH contrary/jinks post!
Heeee......Heeee. ES trading below 1840. Futs dn 20+ points. Keep pounding, bears.
I used to be short and all excited seeing the futures down 20+ like tonight. Then after the umteenth time all the losses were erased by morning and solidly green by afternoon, I learned my lesson. No matter how bad the news. For once, I'm not falling for this shit and will be BTFD with both hands should, by some miracle, we are still a little bit down at the open tomorrow.
This is another orchestrated Bear Trap. Anybody who knows anything at all about Ukraine or who spends 5 minutes with Google, would have known by last Monday exactly how this was going to go down. By Thursday when Russian troops showed up in Crimea, even every brain-dead idiot could see what what was happening, yet the market kept going up. If Ukraine was truly a real threat to the markets, then they would have tanked Thursday and Friday when the Russian invasion was clear, not all of sudden over this weekend. That's what tipped off the fact that this is just another bear trap. Had they tanked the market Thursday and Friday, it would have been much more believeable.
Fellow bears, don't make the same mistake we've been making for years. This dip is NOT the big one, it's just another way to keep pushing the rigged market to all-time highs. I just wish we had come to our senses before getting fleeced on our shorts. I was short the last two weeks but finally covered Friday (yes, at the high), but still, I am not nervous about tomorrow because I've seen this script too many times before. Just when you think the markets just HAVE to crash, is when they rip it higher.
Fellow bears and reality travelers, please don't fall for it again. Until we learn, they'll just keep fleecing us, over and over.
Asian markets are now well off their lows and climbing quickly. Half-life of "bad" news is getting shorter and shorter. Looks like traders are finally catching on to the manipulators games.
Nikkei getting smashed (i.e., Yen appreciating again... what the fuck?) - down at 14460 now.
I'm back in (long, of course); Da Boyz will have new shorts' nuts in a vice tonight (Asian time - Monday US time).
Seriously - folks are worried about this shit in Ukraine? The US tries to foment a coup in someone else's back yard(as usual), the western media performs its usual power-fellating full-court press (as usual), and everything goes to shit (as usual). Where's the surprise?
The risks of a 'hot war' between the US and Russia is as near to zero as to be worth ignoring: the US does not have the manpower, materiel or logistical capacity that it would need to mobilise in the Crimea. And there's no way the US political class has the balls to lob ICBMs towards anyone who has some of their own to send back. (Not sayin that would be a good idea, mind you: just that this sabre rattlin' is really just a toothless old dog bayin' from the porch - the broke-ass, got-its-ass-kicked-in-Iraq-and-Aftghanistan US government trying to pretend that it's still a "playa").
The US political class has shown time and time again, it has absolutely no desire to take on an opponent of anywhere remotely near the same strength - if the opposition has more than 20% of the population of the US, fugeddaboutit.
That's the thing about the sociopaths that rule the US; they know that if they ever got into a serious war EARLY, their banker cronies could not pocket the vast wodges of cash they bilk off the tax base.
So they will blink, every time.
Well said.
Hip Hip Hooray right? You guys are awesome!
this couldnt have been more obvious.
sure enough, futures r way off there lows, and should be green by tomm.
this is a non event, and will be made into something a lot bigger than it is. so when the fucking s&p rallies 20 percent for no fucking reason, bastards like bob pisani and all the other fuckers on the panel can be like '' well things in ukraine have calmed down and ''investors'' like that''.
its all fucking bullshit.
i remember the same thing happened in april with cyprus, futures were down sharply overnight, and sure enough next morning turned green and it finished green that day.
Was the Friday dip the flipping of the switch to red and the mini-rally just a head fake to trap some more people long before the weekend?