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Global Equities Tumble Over Ukraine Fear

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We were perhaps even more amused than our readers by our Friday headline "Stocks Close At New Record High On Russian Invasion, GDP Decline And Pending Home Sales Miss." It appears that today the market forgot to take its lithium, and is finally focusing on the Ukraine part of the headline, at least until 3:30 pm again when everything should once again be back to market ramp normal. As expected, the PMI data from China and Europe in February, was promptly ignored and it was all about Ukraine again, where Russia sternly refuses to yield to Western demands, forcing the shocked market to retreat lower, and sending Russian stocks lower by over 11%. This is happening even as Ukraine is sending Russian gas to European consumers as normal, gas transport monopoly Ukrtransgas said on Monday. "Ukrtransgas is carrying out all its obligations, fulfilling all agreements with Gazprom. The transit (via Ukraine to Europe) totalled 200 million cubic meters as of March 1," Ukrtransgas spokesman Maksim Belyavsky said. In other words, it can easily get worse should Russia indeed use its trump card.

Even though Bunds have failed to close the opening gap higher amid an escalation of concerns surrounding Ukraine, stocks in Europe managed to come off lows, supported by the latest PMI data and reports that gas flow from Ukraine is unaffected. Nevertheless, risk aversion remained the dominant theme and heading into the  North American open, stocks in Europe are seen lower across the board, with financials underperforming. At the same time, commodities and precious metals benefited the most from the flight to quality, with Brent surging over USD 2 overnight and wheat rising the most since September 2012. As a guide, more than half of Russia’s gas exports to the EU are shipped through Ukraine, which is also the third biggest corn shipper and the sixth-largest wheat exporter.

Apart from digesting EU-based PMI reports, market participants also absorbed a raft of UK data, which included Manufacturing PMI, Mortgage Approvals which came in at its highest since Nov’07 and money supply data, all of which failed to have a meaningful impact on GBP/USD. Looking elsewhere, despite the fact that safe-haven related flows weighed on USD/JPY overnight and in Europe this morning, EUR/CHF grinded higher and reversed over half of initial losses. Going forward, there is little in terms of tier-1 macroeconomic data releases, but Draghi is due to testify in Brussels at 1400GMT/0800CST.

Bulletin news summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • Risk averse sentiment dominated the price action throughout the session amid an escalation of concerns surrounding Ukraine, with fears over prolonged conflict also supporting Brent and soft-commodities in early trade.
  • Bunds gapped higher at the open, with stocks lower across the board and financials underperforming as credit spreads widened.
  • Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (Feb F) M/M 53.2 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 53.0) and Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 48.5 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 49.5).
  • Treasuries gain, 10Y yield holding near early February lows as Ukraine says Putin’s military is strengthening its presence in Crimea, where ethnic Russians comprise a majority.
  • Russian soldiers attacked Ukrainian army units in the Black Sea district in the last 24 hours, while more armored personnel carriers and war ships have been sighted, the border guard service said today
  • Russia raised its main interest rate the most since 1998 to shore up the economy as the ruble tumbled and stocks sold off the most in five years
  • U.S. Secretary of State Kerry is traveling to Kiev after discussing sanctions against Russia while EU foreign ministers will hold an emergency meeting; Merkel and Obama agreed in phone call yesterday that political solution is only way on Crimea
  • If Obama’s handling of the crisis reinforces doubts about his toughness in addressing foreign challenges, as some critics assert, it could affect a more diverse range of issues: Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, North Korea’s nuclear weapons
  • China’s Communist Party leadership faces a dilemma over where to set a growth goal for 2014 as President Xi Jinping wrestles with sustaining expansion while limiting debt risks, environmental damage and social unrest
  • North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles after it launched four into the sea off its eastern coast last week, escalating tensions as the U.S. and South Korea entered the second week of joint military drills
  • Euro-region economic reports in the past month turned out reassuring enough to convince most economists that Mario Draghi doesn’t need to cut interest rates this week
  • Sovereign yields fall, with exception of Greece and Portugal. EU peripheral spreads tighten as bund yields fall. Global equity markets, U.S. stock-index futures decline. WTI crude and gold higher; copper declines

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Jan., est. 0.2% (prior 0.0%); Personal Spending, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%); PCE Deflator m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:58am: Markit U.S. PMI Final, Feb., est. 56.5
  • 10:00am: ISM Manufacturing, Feb., est. 52 (prior 51.3)
  • ISM Prices Paid, Feb., est. 57.3 (prior 60.5)
  • 10:00am: Construction Spending m/m, Jan., est. -0.3% (prior 0.1%)
  • Domestic Vehicle Sales, Feb., est. 11.9m (prior 11.94m)
  • Total Vehicle Sales, Feb., est. 15.4m (prior 15.16m) Central Banks
  • 10:30pm: Reserve Bank of Australia seen holding cash rate target at 2.5%
  • 10:30am: BoE’s Carney speaks on panel in Frankfurt Supply
  • 11:00am: Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b in 2021-2024 sector

Asian Headlines

JGBs rallied and JPY swap curve bull-flattened amid broad based risk averse tone which also saw the Nikkei 225 index settle lower over 1% amid geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. At the same time, after coming under focus last week, USD/CNY traded steady overnight after much of the carry trade premium was eroded by the PBOC engineered squeeze.

Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.5)
Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 55.0 (Prev. 53.4)
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 48.5 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 49.5)

EU & UK Headlines

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (Feb F) M/M 53.2 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 53.0)
- German PMI Manufacturing (Feb F) M/M 54.8 vs. Exp. 54.7 (Prev. 54.7)
- French PMI Manufacturing (Feb F) M/M 49.7 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.5)
- Spanish PMI Manufacturing (Feb) M/M 52.5 (Prev. 50.6), highest since April 2010
- Italian Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 52.3 Vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 53.1)

UK PMI Manufacturing (Feb) M/M 56.9 vs. Exp. 56.5 (Prev. 56.7, Rev. to 56.6)
UK Mortgage Approvals (Jan) M/M 76.9K vs. Exp. 74.5K (Prev. 71.6K, Rev. to 72.8K) - Highest since November 2007

Bunds gapped higher at the open but failed to top the high from last week seen at 145.33, which when broken will open up the door to the continuation of highs from last May at 145.80. To the downside, supports levels are seen at 144.19 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci from 25th of Feb.

Moody’s changed outlook on Germany’s Aaa rating to stable from negative, citing diminished risks for Germany in supporting other Eurozone countries. Moody’s said Germany has made progression in fiscal consolidation and the country’s balance sheet faces diminishing risks from banking system. (DJN) Moody’s also changed the outlook on Austria’s Aaa rating to stable from negative, and changed the outlook on Luxembourg’s Aaa rating to stable from negative.

US Headlines

President Obama will release his fiscal 2015 budget on Tuesday, a month late and after an especially muted rollout. The document is widely viewed as “dead on arrival” in the Capitol because appropriators already have their discretionary top-line number for the year starting Oct. 1, and because the midterm election means there is little appetite for changes to entitlements and taxes. (TheHill.com)

Equities

Stocks in Europe traded lower since the get-go, with Asian equity indices are nursing losses overnight as market participants continued to fret over the unstable situation in Ukraine. Financials underperformed on the sector break-down, while the more defensive sectors benefited from the flight to quality.

FX

GBP failed to benefit from the release of better than expected Hometrack, Manufacturing PMI and Mortgage Approvals data, with GBP/USD and EUR/USD seen little changed, thats in spite of the fact that JPY continued to benefit from safe-haven related flow.

The Russian central bank raised the key rate to 7% from 5.5% effective immediately, adding that the decision to raise rates due to rising inflationary risks and risks to financial stability. (BBG) This meeting was not scheduled until March 14th, as the central bank are forced to intervene in a volatile market after the RUB was heavily sold following military intervention in Ukraine.

Commodities

Citigroup have raised its 2014 gold forecast to USD 1,305 per oz, from USD 1,255. Analysts also raised its 2014 copper forecast to USD 6,975 per tonne, from USD 6,650 and cut its 2014 iron ore forecast to USD 113 per tonne, from USD 120. (BBG)

Barclays has raised its 2014 crude oil price forecast, on expected higher demand and investor interest levels, coupled with low inventory figures and high geopolitical risks, raising its average WTI price forecast for 2014 to USD 99 bbl, up from USD 97 bbl. (RTRS)

Analysts at SocGen expect crude prices to fall on maintenance and ending winter demand, whilst seeing more downside to WTI crude over North Sea Brent and they expect managed money length on WTI crude to reverse. (BBG)

Ukraine is transiting Russian gas to Europe as normal, according to gas transport monopoly Ukrtransgas. (RTRS)

North Korea have fired two short-range missiles into the sea. (Yonhap) This follows similar missile tests held last week on the Korean peninsula.

 

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Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:12 | 4500771 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Thank goodness.....we still have a shred of common sense out there.

 

Paper covers rock.....WW3 is bearish.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:22 | 4500783 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Now watch for $5/gal gas near you soon.    Because Obama!

Here's the US gas price "heat map" for future reference

http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_gastemperaturemap.aspx

And the state & metro price list:

http://www.gasbuddy.com/GB_Price_List.aspx

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:28 | 4500789 negative rates
negative rates's picture

There is nothing to fear, but fear its self!

Hey, lets go over to your house, and sometimes we can go over to my house.

Trump cards bitches!!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:22 | 4500786 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

Looks like Gold has a little morning woody. Will Yellen kill it just by looking at it or have we reached critical mass where even that disfigured old manbearpig can't shut it down?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:12 | 4500773 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Koos Jansen: Chinese Physical Gold Demand YTD 369t Up 51 % 


 Koos Jansen continues his remarkable job reporting us the real demand for Gold in China. According to his information this demand is on track for another record annualised so far and is up 51% on Y/Y basis. Geopolitical shift with Ukraine situation will only add to this fire and ongoing Financial War will claim its victim US Dollar. http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/koos-jansen-chinese-physical-gold.ht...


Currency Wars: The Yuan's Silent Scream - Portrait Of A Derivatives Bomb Being Detonated TNR.v MUX GDX GLD


"David Kranzler published a very interesting article confirming our discussion about the ongoing Financial War involving USA, Russia and China now. Bo Polny on the chart above presents his view about the implications of US Dollar crash below 80.00 level for the Gold market and you can find our thoughts on the links  below."

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:17 | 4500777 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Chinese Physical Gold Demand YTD 369t Up 51 %

 

Barbarians and mongrels...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:31 | 4500798 nixy
nixy's picture

well that can't be right, the price has hardly moved......

 

...what?

 

............................what?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:27 | 4500792 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Shares in Russian Bank VTB down 19% as fears grow over financial sanctions against Russia;

http://www.investing.com/equities/vtb_rts

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:39 | 4500824 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

The Rothschild Cartel is about to act.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:57 | 4500863 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Copy Ben and Janet and just print some cash to cover any debt. Job done according to the FED and the USA debts

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:32 | 4500802 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Gold hit 1350 overnight....will be interesting to see if it can get back above 1345 consistently. There seems to be a level of resistance around that level---been bouncing off all morning. 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:34 | 4500810 nixy
nixy's picture

yes, sometimes it's almost seems as if it has a mind of it's own.......

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:33 | 4500808 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I think we'll all be amazed if this is more than a 1 day event.  Tomorrows headline "Russian invasion not as bad as expected".

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:37 | 4500819 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Either that or once they get done talking about themselves, they will talk about nothing else until they are blue in the face, and then start all over again with the red line tactic.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:50 | 4500814 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

What's the odds that the Fed quietly does a huge motherfucking TOMO at near-zero?

Especially if the PCE and PMI data sucks.

Given the retardery-dumping that's been happening, we might get to see a goodly chunk of european equities unzip... upwards. 

Keep an eye on the DAX - I thought the Germans were supposed to be smart engineer-y types, not rabbits with the IQ of a 2001 SeafoodOnline.com IPO participant. However someone sold - or shorted - DAX in quantity at under 9490... that's gonna sting if the PPT squeezes new shorts (maybe was just trying to trigger stops).

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:39 | 4500815 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The bull market in commodities is a stealth undercurrent moving its way through the markets. Long term investors will be happy. Short term moves in this manipulated fog is a guess.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:36 | 4500816 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

The US has invaded 6-10 countries in the past 12 years and the markets are at all time highs. Why would this little geo-political blip affect how the US Fed moves the stock market?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:47 | 4500828 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's amazing what you can do with a little hot QE cash.

 

...if you consider about a trillion dollars/years to be little.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:48 | 4500845 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

As long as the rest of the world allows you to do it, QE is magical.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:45 | 4500840 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The FED can talk tough as tax collections are flowing into their acounts. :)

 

Come mid-year you should expect some concern.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:49 | 4500846 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

It seems deer with glowing eyes are native to the region.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:50 | 4500852 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Convenient that NatG fell so much in anticipation of the weekend happenings. No connection i'm sure.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:56 | 4500859 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

It's almost 3 pm in Ukraine. Has John Kerry landed yet to save the day?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 09:09 | 4500892 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The house of lies, waits for no one.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 08:57 | 4500865 Racer
Racer's picture

And ready, steady,

BOUNCE

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 09:04 | 4500880 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

futures on track to be green within few hours.

 

the joke will continue today

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 09:04 | 4500881 Randy Goodnight
Randy Goodnight's picture

What's the big deal?  Russia will do its thing and this will be wrapped up in a week or two.

The USSA is in a bigger mess than what's happening in the Ukraine.  All other events are either a distraction or excuse for the failures of Obummer & Co.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 09:09 | 4500889 ms8172
ms8172's picture

There goes the futures.... seen this before!  in the TANK and then gradually climbs before the open!!!!     REALLY???? Who & the fuck is manipulating the market!!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 09:10 | 4500898 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The mkt manipulators silly.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 09:19 | 4500914 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Kevin Henry just finished his last bagel with lox & a schmear of cream cheese compliment of Ole' Yellen & is gettin' to work.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 09:14 | 4500910 nixy
nixy's picture

but a manipulated market isn't a market ......

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 09:29 | 4500951 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

Fucking arse-ing bollocks - I can't find a comment I made a few minutes ago.

 

Anyhoooo... after I wrote it, it crossed my mind that if Rastus HopeyChangey (the Mulatto Metrosexual) was keen to signal to the world that the US was not going to be impacted by something as trivial as what Putain does in the Crimea... a green close pretty much gets the job done.

 

You know it makes sense, bitchez.

Imagine all the distended engorged clitorii and tumescent man-bits on the CNBC crew if the Dow finished in the green... "US equities shrugged off the global uncertainty caused by Russia's expansionist aggression in Ukraine:... and now over to [insert cloned fake-blonde bleached-teeth orange-skinned chicksie]".

Fuck, it would not surprise me if 1600 Penn orchestrated a crowd of high-school dropouts to chant "U!S!A!" after the closing bell...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 10:07 | 4501097 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Watching the equity futures is hilarious. Its as if there is a barn load of quarter horses chomping at the bit, making ready for that miraculous moment to break into a full run, to power the markets higher. SUCH HORSESHIT!!

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