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Realpolitik In Ukraine

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Anatole Kaletsky via Evergreen-Gavekal,

Oscar Wilde described marriage as the triumph of imagination over intelligence and second marriage as the triumph of hope over experience. In finance and geopolitics, by contrast, experience must always prevail over hope and realism over wishful thinking. A grim case in point is the Russian incursion into Ukraine. What makes this confrontation so dangerous is that US and EU policy seems to be motivated entirely by hope and wishful thinking. Hope that Vladimir Putin will “see sense,” or at least be deterred by the threat of US and EU sanctions to Russia’s economic interests and the personal wealth of his oligarch friends. Wishful thinking about “democracy and freedom” overcoming dictatorship and military bullying.

Financial markets cannot afford to be so sentimental. While we should always recall at a time like this the famous advice from Nathan Rothschild to “buy at the sound of gunfire,” the drastically risk-off response to weekend events in Ukraine makes perfect sense because Russia’s annexation of Crimea is the most dangerous geopolitical event of the post-Cold War era, and perhaps since the Cuban Missile crisis. It can result in only two possible outcomes, either of which will be damaging to European stability in the long-term. Either Russia will quickly prevail and thereby win the right to redraw borders and exercise veto powers over the governments of its neighbouring countries. Or the Western-backed Ukrainian government will fight back and Europe’s second-largest country by area will descend into a Yugoslav-style civil war that will ultimately draw in Poland, NATO and therefore the US.

No other outcome is possible because it is literally inconceivable that Putin will ever withdraw from Crimea. To give up Crimea now would mean the end of Putin’s presidency, since the Russian public, not to mention the military and security apparatus, believe almost unanimously that Crimea still belongs to Russia, since it was only administratively transferred to Ukraine, almost by accident, in 1954. In fact, many Russians believe, rightly or wrongly, that most of Ukraine “belongs” to them. (The very name of the country in Russian means “at the border” and certainly not “beyond the border”). Under these circumstances, the idea that Putin would respond to Western diplomatic or economic sanctions, no matter how stringent, by giving up his newly gained territory is pure wishful thinking.

Putin’s decision to back himself into this corner has been derided by the Western media as a strategic blunder but it is actually a textbook example of realpolitik. Putin has created a situation where the West’s only alternative to acquiescing in the Russian takeover of Crimea is all-out war. And since a NATO military attack on Russian forces is even more inconceivable than Putin’s withdrawal, it seems that Russia has won this round of the confrontation. The only question now is whether the new Ukrainian government will accept the loss of Crimea quietly or try to retaliate against Russian speakers in Ukraine—offering Putin a pretext for invasion, and thereby precipitating an all-out civil war.

That is the key question investors must consider in deciding whether the Ukraine crisis is a Rothschild-style buying opportunity, or a last chance to bail out of risk-assets before it is too late. The balance of probabilities in such situations is usually tilted towards a peaceful solution—in this case, Western acquiescence in the Russian annexation of Crimea and the creation of a new national unity government in Kiev acceptable to Putin. The trouble is that the alternative of a full-scale war, while far less probable, would have much greater impact—on the European and global economies, on energy prices and on the prices of equities and other riskassets that are already quite highly valued. At present, therefore, it makes sense to stand back and prepare for either outcome by maintaining balanced portfolios of the kind recommended by Charles, with equal weightings of equities and very long-duration US bonds.

Looking back through history at comparable episodes of severe geopolitical confrontation, investors have usually done well to wait for the confrontation to reach some kind of climax before putting on more risk.

In the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the S&P 500 fell -6.5% between October 16, when the confrontation started, and October 23, the worst day of the crisis, when President Kennedy issued his nuclear ultimatum to Nikita Khrushchev. The market steadied then, but did not rebound in earnest until four days later, when it became clear that Khrushchev would back down; it went on to gain 30% in the next six months.

Similarly in the 1991 Gulf War, it was not until the bombing of Baghdad actually started and a quick US victory looked certain, that equities bounced back, gaining 25% by the summer. Thus investors did well to buy at the sound of gunfire, but lost nothing by waiting six months after Saddam Hussein’s initial invasion of Kuwait in August, 1990.

Even in the worst-case scenario to which the invasion of Crimea has been compared over the weekend—the German annexation of Sudetenland in June 1938—Wall Street only rebounded in earnest, gaining 24% within one month, on September 29, 1938. That was the day before Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich, brandishing his infamous note from Hitler and declaring “peace in our time.” The ultimate triumph of hope over experience.

 

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Mon, 03/03/2014 - 18:53 | 4503972 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Just some Roosky Freedum-Spread,  nothing to worry about.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 18:56 | 4503992 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

The bigger problem for the hapless Ukrainian government and the inept West is when the Russians decide to "protect" the citizens of Donetsk and other cities in the Eastern Ukraine. There are no options for NATO then and if the West imposes sanctions, Germany and France lose their natural gas supplies. Gee, wonder what the surrender for world peace crowd will do now.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 18:57 | 4504001 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Give him another week or so..

He cannot tolerate the maniacs running Kiev and they will soon be history.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:01 | 4504015 semperfidelis
semperfidelis's picture

Putin`s days are numbered. The sharks in Moscow will get him heavily irradiated in no time. 6 months at best. Ukraine was a epic blunder for Putin, oligarchs will never forgive him.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:04 | 4504034 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Whatever.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:13 | 4504070 semperfidelis
semperfidelis's picture

Between Putin and Yanukovych there are no differences of substance, the Ukrainian puppet was imitating his overlord. If Obama would do in the US what Putin is doing in Russia you would have civil war. Good thing Russians have no weapons. I guess the communist forgot to mention that in the constitution.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:30 | 4504146 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Please give an analogy of your statement regarding Obama vs Putin.

And BTW, isn't Ukraine facing civil "disagreements" that could quite easily lead to armed combat?

Maybe you are just being sarcastic and I am missing it.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:38 | 4504180 semperfidelis
semperfidelis's picture

The Ukrainians have no guns (http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/ukraine). So someone would actually have to `arm` the 2 sides of the civil war. Civil war in eastern Ukraine would spill into Russia instantly. Check this out -> http://images.nationmaster.com/images/motw/commonwealth/ussr_ethnic_1974... . Putin is upset because he lost his bitch in Kiev, that makes him look bad at the KGB meetings. This is how it always worked in Russia and the USSR. Putin is not Mao, Russia in not China, they don`t have Confucius.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:55 | 4504254 PhilB
PhilB's picture

How anybody can see this a Putin getting the upper hand on the West is just ridiculous. Putin is trying to salvage a horrible situation that Ukraine has become for him. He only has downside risks and West upside. If Russia stays with Crimea and West gets the rest of Ukraine, its a huge victory for the West and a crushing defeat of Putin's reassertion of Russian geopolitical influence. Outside of insanity, WWIII, its Russia that has much more to lose in the situation and is currently in the process of losing it.

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:09 | 4504295 semperfidelis
Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:18 | 4504326 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Consequences bitches! Redraw um right this time and no one will get hurt.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:29 | 4504366 max2205
max2205's picture

BANG!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 23:42 | 4505123 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

if Merkel thinks Putin's not "all there" that's telling... those two are tied at the hip with their DDR history and I imagine have grown used to reading each other very well

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:21 | 4504340 fooshorter
fooshorter's picture

+1 

Putin salvages crimeria, but kiev has already become a western symphatizer.

 

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:26 | 4504356 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

Putin will take ALL the south and east of the UKraine  in time - and leave the debt behind and charge market rates for the gas to the  western Rump - sounds pretty good in the end

Obama gets Vlad to impale him on his pile of endless speeches and Bullshit!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:32 | 4504372 semperfidelis
semperfidelis's picture

... and then Putin will walk on water and feed all the worlds hungry.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:11 | 4505207 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Aw now wouldn't that be a brilliant move by the west?  Imagine if Kiev up and held a referendum in the west to secede from Ukraine and become West Ukraine or some such thing.  They could break to the west AND leave all their debt to the Ukraine (eastern Ukraine and Crimea) and Putin holding the bag for conquering all that debt.  LMAO that would be funny as hell.

Too bad our leaders are not imaginative nor daring enough.  Hmm, I guess they wouldn't bother because West Ukraine would be independent and debt free while still holding the keys to the gas.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 01:42 | 4505397 Dr. Destructo
Dr. Destructo's picture

If that sort of thing comes to pass I'm blaming you for giving them ideas.

 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 02:06 | 4505480 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

How does west Ukraine hold the keys to the gas when the gas is owned by Russian interests and produced in Russia and Belarus? Ukraine is a transit station, the gas can go other directions or stay in the ground for another day.

Ukraine has no levers what so ever. Ukrainians are fucked thanks to 'our leaders'.

'Our leaders' are traitors to humankind.

 

Stack On

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:34 | 4504554 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture

Yes, broke NATO has the upper hand on 'gas-man' Putin

 

/sarc

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:04 | 4504631 Element
Element's picture

 

 

" .... and West gets the rest of Ukraine, its a huge victory for the West ..."

huh?

So where the hell are all the Ukrainians going to live?!

The west would get nothing but a strategic liability and a massive insurgency, in a country that is beyond broke. But at least they will be in good company in that case. But Washington already said a military response was out of the question, and if the West was in Ukraine, in a strategic power-projection role, then there would indeed be a massive military response from Russia.

So the West is getting nothing.

The Russians are on home turf, they control the whole area, they own that, they have logistics capability and dedicated well trained very ready combat capability in that region, up the wazoo. The west has zero chance in Ukraine.

All that resulted was instability and a big headache for Russia, that Putin is addressing via taking Crimea to remove the western incentive to undermine Ukraine, in order to get at the Black Sea fleet, to weaken its influence in the Mediterranean, as that could have undermined Syria, and Tartus, and thus it would have made Israel happy-chappies, as well.

So Putin Annexes Crimea, to take the western incentive away to undermine Ukraine, and thus the Black Sea Fleet is not going anywhere, ever.

Strategic situation improves for Russia, not weakens, while NATO and Washington are left looking weak as water and outwitted and out manoeuvred ... again.

http://townhall.com/political-cartoons/ericallie/2013/09/09/112067 


Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:20 | 4505227 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Part of me thinks it's all just part of the plan to shift manufacturing (east Ukraine in this case) to the east (Russia/China) and debt to the west (US and EU).  Sure the bankers get some slaves for a while but eventually the real powers that be will hang them in the final takeover.  The bankers are indeed evil but they could simply be evil useful idiots.  They are really breaking down western civilization hand in hand with the leftists like Obama.  The problem is they only have wealth.  The politicians have intelligence and military.  Has there ever been a dictatorship takeover by bankers?  Nope.  Politicians and military do takeovers.  Bankers line the walls that catch bullets.  But I digress... lol.

Cloward-Piven on a global scale.  Empires moving chits around a board in order to create an epic collapse.  Everyone's in on it except the people.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:19 | 4504333 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Rinse and repete the iran/iraq 80's, and all is well, for now.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:20 | 4504084 Independent
Independent's picture

I am very confused by this situation, you've got Jews supporting Neo Nazis and even fighting alongside them in Kiev.  Nuland who is a Jew is actively courting these far right groups and funding them.  Do they think they can control them?  Perhaps as with Islamic terrorist once the support money stops these groups just fall apart.  Why are the Jews so hell bent on joining the EU.  Or does Israel want to force the Ukrainian Jews to move to Israel so it can settle them on Syrian land if they are able to dismember the country and create a greater israel?  If Assad falls one can see Israel greatly expand its security zone outside of the Golan Heights and possible grab Syrian coastal region as a security pretext.  Syria would definitely make for greater living space, South are the Egyptians and East the Jordanians but out towards the goland heights there is room for growth especially in a failed state that Syria would become without Assad.  I suspect that once the Euros get in control of Ukraine the neo nazis will be marginalized once they have served their purpose.  They are the shocktroops for the mass army of Euro slave merchants and traders ready to set upon Ukraine and steal its assets, frack its heartland, and enslave its people.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:25 | 4504105 john39
john39's picture

the Zionists and orignal (german) nazis had a treaty, the transfer agreement, which basically facilitated the forced transfer of European Jews to Palestine.   another piece of history put into the memory hole.  so what is going on in Ukraine is not surprising or new.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Transfer_Agreement

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:40 | 4504177 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

And that was before WWII started and before the holocaust started in 1933. That was before anyone knew how the Nazi's honored their agreements.... So Zionists bad for making agreements with Nazi's but British not prior to WWII? Hindsight is fucking nice and all.

Context would be nice before joooo bashing. There is plenty to legitimately bash them on without leaving out key pieces of information that undermine your false point there.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:52 | 4504247 john39
john39's picture

better check your dates. The global Jewish economic boycott against Nazi germany was already in place when the transfer agreement was executed.  So, total economic boycott on the one hand, but transfer agreement on the other?  your history doesn't line up.

as for the rest of your post, i don't find it historically accurate either.  that is off topic.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:15 | 4504316 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haavara_Agreement

The Haavara (Transfer) Agreement was agreed to by the German government in 1933 to allow the Zionist movement, in the form of the Haavara company to transfer property from Germany to Palestine, for the sole purpose of encouraging Jewish emigration from Germany. The Haavara company operated under a similar plan as the earlier Hanotea company. The Haavara Company required immigrants to pay at least 1000 pounds sterling into the banking company. This money would then be used to buy German exports for import to Palestine.

...

After the invasion of Poland and the onset of World War II in 1939, the practical continuation of the Haavara agreement became impossible. In 1940, representatives of the underground Zionist group Lehi met with von Hentig to propose direct military cooperation with the Nazis for the continuation of the transfer of European Jews to Palestine.[7] This proposal, however, did not produce results.

...

Sounds more like an escape plan than some joooo conspiracy to kill their brethren to me.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:09 | 4504477 john39
john39's picture

Nice try on spinning the fact that zionists were doing business with the very same people they claimed were out to kill them. Btw, odd is it not, that alleged mass murdering fascist nazis who were sworn to wipe Jews from the face of the earth were willing to let them emigrate?

Odder still, the Jews that seved in hitler's government and military:

"Contrary to conventional views, Rigg reveals that a startlingly large number of German military men were classified by the Nazis as Jews or "partial-Jews" (Mischlinge), in the wake of racial laws first enacted in the mid-1930s. Rigg demonstrates that the actual number was much higher than previously thought--perhaps as many as 150,000 men, including decorated veterans and high-ranking officers, even generals and admirals."

http://www.kansaspress.ku.edu/righit.html

History as we know it is almost entirely lies. Better to face it than perpetuate the lies to avoid stigma.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:37 | 4505263 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

The german army oath wasn't changed until the mid 1930s, 1934 to be specific.  Then Hitler purged the officers.  Then they started getting tight on who was a german and who could be in the army and all that.  Of course there were plenty of Jews in the army up until the mid 1930s and a few even past that (some men want to watch the world burn).

Hitler wanted the Jews gone.  Before he took over Hindenburgs role he had not power over the military (1934).  Getting them to move out on their own... why not?  If you thought that Asians, for example, were the main problem in the US and you wanted them gone would you accept them moving out or would you feel that you just had to kill them all as soon as possible?  What if you had no power to kill them all?  You would take what you could get.  That's how you are (if you are like Hitler, you take everything you can get).  You take the bargain and let them move.  If you can get them to pay you for it, so much the better. 

History is a constellation not a single pinprick of light.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:46 | 4504604 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

Ever hear of Chaim Weizmann?  First President of Israel?  The guy who said that he did not care if all the Jews in Europe died, so long as the Israeli state resulted?  We are dealing with VERY tough customers.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:46 | 4505277 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Sounds like he was a guy who understood the reality of the situation.  All the Jews in Europe were going to die.  They did nothing our founding fathers would not have done in terms of leaving tyranny and making a land of their own.  Like our founders, they have been guilty of some tyranny of their own.  At least it is their own crimes they can pay and repent for now.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:13 | 4504490 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Mainly the rich ones got to leave.

The average Jew had to stay.

An armed populace would make this kind of thing a lot harder.

Worth looking at Churchill's desperate need for cash and some of the decisions made regarding Palestine, too.

Anyway, none of this is about anything other than money and power. Rich greedy fucks making decisions they have no right to make. If they want to fight, go for it,  just don't involve me or may family.

I'll defend my home and family, that's it.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:48 | 4505282 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

"I'll defend my home and family, that's it."

If everyone had a gun and a real education (fundamental rights and the meanings of words) then that would probably be enough.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:48 | 4504425 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

was there a holocaust?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:15 | 4504500 logicalman
logicalman's picture

There were many, and some of them make Israel's favourite propaganda piece look almost negligable.

http://www.samarthbharat.com/bengalholocaust.htm

http://www.holodomorct.org/history.html

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:06 | 4504689 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Excellent references and on point. These two dwarf the WWII hollowcost lie.

I'd highly recommend anything by this man:

The hollow Lie...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbXFhorRp_U

ori

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:55 | 4505291 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

"The Holocaust" certainly wasn't the worst but it was part of the worst - WWII.  It is hard to seperate one from the other when considering the scale.  No war would have meant far fewer Jews could have been killed.  No Holocaust and who knows what may have happened.  Well, Nanking would have happened but Europe is unclear.  It would depend on what factor changed to remove the Holocaust from the equation.  A sane Hitler would not have started a two front war nor declared war on the US for no good purpose.  Maybe the German people choose a different leader, Hindenberg lives longer, Hitler dies, or perhaps the crash in '29 doesn't happen...  could have been no European war then.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:19 | 4504515 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

>> was there a holocaust?

Many of them, apparently...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dda-0Q_XUhk

Reading and understand the Kabbalah is essential to understand the motivations.

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:35 | 4504835 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

The 300 year slave trade by Western Capitatlsm murdered 25 million Africans and crippled the continent in a way that has not fully allowed it to recover.

The Capitalist Empire of Britain, run through the East India Company, killed millions of Bengalese in the late 18th and early 19th centuries thorugh govermnet imposed famines.

Same thing with Ireland.  And China.  That British Empire was hard-core.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:46 | 4504220 jaxville
jaxville's picture

 The Jews have no choice but to support the current circus running/ruining the Ukraine. The useful idiots they used to destabilize the elected government were brushed aside and the ultra nationalists took over with ease. Something tells me though that Jews will be given a pass in the new Ukraine but not so with Russians unless they happen to be Jews. On the other hand....the shoah must go on.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:05 | 4504684 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

 "The useful idiots they used to destabilize the elected government were brushed aside and the ultra nationalists took over with ease."

I'm not so sure about that.  Looks like the ultra nationalists were groomed from the get-go.

 From Victoria’s scrapbook:

Featured in the third picture in the link below is US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland together Neo Nazi Svoboda leader Oleh Tyahnybok on her right. 

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-u-s-has-installed-a-neo-nazi-government...

On her left is Arseniy Yatseniuk, the central bankster PM or ‘Yats’, as the U.S. State Department fondly calls him, who is  featured in this article:

 Central Banker PM Says Ukraine Ready for IMF Auction Block

http://www.infowars.com/central-banker-pm-says-ukraine-ready-for-imf-auc...

Yats said Monday that Naftogaz Ukrainy, the national oil and gas company of Ukraine, will be put on the auction block.

Ukrtransgaz, a Naftogaz Ukrainy subsidiary, operates the natural gas pipelines in Ukraine. The pipelines are used to transit Russian natural gas to eighteen European countries, including France and Italy. Naftogaz is the sole importer of Russian natural gas provided by Gazprom, the largest extractor of natural gas and one of the largest companies in the world.

Looks like a good old fashioned shake down.  Criminal thugs employing other criminal thugs to loot and pillage. In this instance, a whole country.

 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:53 | 4505290 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

Wow, they're not wasting any time are they?

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 01:16 | 4505326 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Democracy in action /sarc

 

Springtime for Nuland and Ukraine
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHmYIo7bcUw

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:06 | 4504688 Element
Element's picture

 

 

"I am very confused by this situation, you've got Jews supporting Neo Nazis and even fighting alongside them in Kiev."

You realize Israel is a racist Neo-Fascist State, right? Whence the confusion?

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 01:22 | 4505255 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

"I am very confused by this situation, you've got Jews supporting Neo Nazis and even fighting alongside them in Kiev." 

From the links I read some of the gang leaders were IDF (or "ex-IDF"... for what that's worth).

The calculus on this could be: contributing to a de-stabilization of Ukraine would weaken Russia's military commitment and resources defending Assad.

Perhaps there's new military action in Syria planned and pending that will exploit the confusion and focus in the Ukraine to expand the Israeli sphere of influence at home in their ME neighborhood?  

This chess game may have at least two different non-contiguous boards.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:29 | 4504145 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Wish there was some way to check the neg arrow IP's.

But yes, Yeltsin was gone 6 months after he fucked with the boys. In every country it is all fun & games until someone is down a billion or two. Unless that guy was a dick.

Big moves like this in Russia are pre-cleared by the donor base and key demographics (the nuclear army working group). Unlike the Chinese PLA, most assets are held by private Oligarchs vs. Army agents so the power base is a bit more at risk to a market panic (today) or a sanctions round (esp. if you are bidding on some India / MENA projects). So unless guys have time to write offset swaps with the asset management corps. to protect against a prolonged sanction round & currency spike, the bullshit tolerance is very low. And with good reason, when you have a few thousand workers to employ and meet payroll on, your high school buddy really can't go start WW III when he feels like it.

Feelings are also pretty raw after the boondoggle that was the Sochi games, which screwed many Oligarchs, and the whole Urea drama. And the SU-35/India contract drama. And the whole Gazprom in Asia drama....

Come to think of it, Valad's not been on a good track record with his donor base for a few months now. I wonder if that has anything to do with his sudden turn to the populist/Slavic-defender motif.

 

 

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:36 | 4504173 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

You don't understand Russia.

Yeltsin was replaced by Putin because Putin felt it was time to step out from behind the curtain.

The oligarchs owe allegiance to Putin. Putin respects the oligarchs so long as they stay in line and don't screw with him. Piss Putin off and the oligarch ends up in serious trouble.

Russia today is a throw back to the Roman-Byzantine times. There is no democracy.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:39 | 4504186 semperfidelis
semperfidelis's picture

No, you don`t understand. The oligarchs OWN Putin. He will be changed when needed to assure their survival.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:46 | 4504221 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Wrong, Putin is not only an oligarch he is now THE oligarch owning a 70% stake I believe it is now in the biggest state controlled gas company in the Russian Federation aka Gazprom. There is a coalition behind him no doubt but they don't control him anymore at this point. The Medvedev/Putin dynamic is a business partnership that keeps the fringe elements from taking control of the country like the faux R/D setup here in the US except there they are all on the same page unlike here.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:15 | 4504470 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Damn he´s packing a nice yearly salary as prez if that 70% stake is true.  The Chinese head honchos learned right quick to hide their Rolex watches once they were exposed as somehow being filthy rich despite modest government salaries.  Indeed, Putin is the boss, and any oligarch who would oppose him either does it from overseas or from a prison cell. Putin has the entire FSB answering to him...and that is a very powerful tool indeed. Still, Putin´s move is not without risk however, and his biggest danger is fiscal.  He´s been spending money hand over fist lately, yet the vast majority of Russians are quite poor. He may have taken over Crimea, but he now "owns it" and all the problems which go with it.  If Russian banks start failing, foreign investment dries up and the Rouble and stock market continues to tank, it´s going to hurt ordinary Russians, and russian businesses, severely.  Time will tell how this works out. Mr. Murphy, of Murphy´s Law fame, can be an unforgiving son of a bitch though...and you know he is watching.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:14 | 4504296 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Khodorkovsky, Konanykhin, Gusinsky, and of course Berezovsky.

Oligarchs have great ways of demonstrating their control over Putin, they command him to seize their fortunes, throw them in jail, and suicide their asses.

Go back ask your NSA overlords and request some better training, I think you must have been denied equal opportunity to your "fair share" of trolling tools.

If you want to build a convincing argument- you should at least start with a plausible premise, and some actual evidence which can be skewed to suit your propaganda. For example, start with the symbiotic relationship and law enforcement "truce" between the FSB and the Russian Mafia. Then jump the shark and twist benign neglect and occasional collusion into one of active collusion and switching the actual roles of pitcher and catcher in that relationship to suit your brand of BS.

Toodles!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:35 | 4504378 semperfidelis
semperfidelis's picture

The most famous oligarchs of the Putin era include Roman Abramovich, Oleg Deripaska, Mikhail Fridman, Mikhail Prokhorov, Alisher Usmanov, German Khan, Viktor Vekselberg, Leonid Michelson, Vagit Alekperov, and still Vladimir Potanin and Vitaly Malkin.

Got that from Langley

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:43 | 4504402 Canucklehead
Tue, 03/04/2014 - 01:51 | 4505430 Dr. Destructo
Dr. Destructo's picture

Whoever your handler is he/she must hate you if they put you to work in Zerohedge.

What's a puppet to do? Puppet.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:18 | 4504508 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Up votes? Down votes?

Who gives a shit.

I thought ZH was about having something to say and taking any knocks that came with that.

Honest exchange of ideas/opinions is the only way forward in this lunatic asylim callled earth.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:47 | 4504611 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Yep, I know I've learned a lesson or two from getting knocked on my ass.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:15 | 4504461 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture

You must live in Washington or Colorado state!

 

BTW the US marines have become known as a really messed up institution as of late, abusing its own people. Should change your moniker. 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:17 | 4504743 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Yeah, oligarchs hate it when they get access to resource rich land and control of a shipping port.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:05 | 4505198 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

It would be nice if people explained why they think what they think instead of just vomiting back out what they were told to say.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 18:54 | 4503979 NemoDeNovo
NemoDeNovo's picture

#Bullish

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 18:57 | 4503989 RacerX
RacerX's picture

Good article. My money is on Mr. Putin. I don't see him leaving voluntarily. Or quietly.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 18:56 | 4503995 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Putin will leap at the first chance he has of saving face...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:05 | 4504037 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Who is full of bluster now Flak ?

You know nothing about Russians in general, and Putin in particular.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:08 | 4504048 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

Flak is just pissed because there haven't been many peak-oil articles on ZH in awhile for him to bloviate about

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:13 | 4504071 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hardly, every article here outline how the economy is fucked is a peak oil article in a different guise...

People here get it now but that wasn't always the case...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:34 | 4504160 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

In the one corner we have fakemeister, and peak oil.

In the opposite corner we have bonestar with bitcoin.

Your ref will be MillionDollarButthead on this episode of troll death match on ZH!

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 02:14 | 4505499 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Fonestar is an enthusiastic well meaning fool...

Whereas you are a troll that people associate with nothing, because you are knowledgeble about nothing...

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 11:33 | 4506724 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

On the contrary, I have presented ideas bassed upon history while you continue to pound the same idea despite facts that suggest you are wrong.

Quite frankly, your posts and overwhelming down arrows indicate the majority think you  know nothing and are the troll.

Try again but I'm moving on. You bring amusement that is short lived.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 12:15 | 4507036 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Nice try, you have presented jack shit...

Prove it otherwise by providing a link....

BTW, you inability to grasp clear facts in also evident in climate discussions...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:11 | 4504059 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Zzzz....

As an aside, I used to work with a physicist who went to school with Zhukov's daughter, yeah, that Zhukov.... 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:23 | 4504109 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

Zzzz....

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:23 | 4504113 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Six degrees of separation, huh?  LMAO, that was rich...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:54 | 4504252 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

And my father met Monty back in the '50s...

Cute, eh?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:40 | 4504196 Omegaman2211
Omegaman2211's picture

Zzzz....

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:55 | 4504257 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Plagiarism is the sincerest form of flattery...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:42 | 4504202 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Were you two fellow sock puppets then, a common entry level job (as in just entered the US from Kazarland)?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:52 | 4504242 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

And my daddy is bigger than yours.

Know nothings , drop names not facts.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:41 | 4504401 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Napoleon, Von Manstein, the Czars."

Forget "entire armies"...entire Regimes are buried here.
The biggest and most powerful in history...all dead. HERE.
No gravestones, no markers.
DEAD.
By the MILLIONS.

This is "Kiev Rus."
Putin thinks he's a Mongol?
Then these people will fight to the last man.
They are at the Gates of Europe.
They do not "wait on orders."

KILL THE INVADER.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:27 | 4504540 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

I do read a lot of history books, especially those that are period written. They can be very, very dry though.

It is my understanding that at least two of the three armies mentioned (Napoleon, Von Manstein), attacked from the west going east.

Unless there was some serious tectonic plate movement in the last day or so, Russia is still to the EAST of the Ukraine, and Europe.

As I recall from the recent past, the former Warsaw Pact was set up as a buffer zone to help grind down an invading force going (you guessed it !!) EAST.

When I would play that old board game of RISK, it never looked good when areas under your control get knocked over and your opponents pieces start creeping up to your doorstep.

 

 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 02:19 | 4505511 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

By the time von Manstien was running HeeresGruppe Sud, the Germans were pretty much on the defensive...

And he would have preferred a mobile defense as opposed to the set piece battle of Kursk...

If you had said Guderian on the other hand...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:48 | 4504424 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I have dropped more facts here at ZH than you have had hot dinners....

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:56 | 4505293 BigJim
BigJim's picture

And yet your bullshit:fact ratio is still running 50:1, girlfriend.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 02:09 | 4505487 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Would you like for me to remind people of the lesson you recieved from me on how a gold standard works? You looked pretty foolish in that one...

I kept the links as souvenirs....

Now run along, my little muppet...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:24 | 4504115 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Shut the fuck up, Flak.  Putin's standing on the front porch with a shotgun because he heard a loud noise.  He can't see the people hiding in the neighbor's bushes but he knows they can see him.  He hasn't done a damn thing other than show the west his big fucking sack.  

Saving face.  Whatever, dipshit.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:43 | 4504408 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

he'll know what to do when the Kiev Rus come for him...

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 02:10 | 4505491 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Shall we check back in 3 months? Then 1 year...

Is that a deal?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:44 | 4504212 Cycle
Cycle's picture

When Bears leap, it's usually to rip off your face, not save their own.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:11 | 4504462 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

I always refer to this helpful article before hiking, because ya never know when you might encounter a bear in the woods.

 

Pay particular attention to the photo on Step 4.  I think BO just might be the black bear on the bottom left, Palin, the polar bear in the upper left (just taking in all in from Alaska) and that's Valad, the grizzly on the upper right.

 

http://www.wikihow.com/Escape-from-a-Bear

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:26 | 4504534 Cycle
Cycle's picture

The Inuit teach the children to grab the attacking male bear's balls yanking on them as if their life depended on it - which it kinda does.  Of course, for female bears, another plan is required.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 23:49 | 4505148 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

how can you tell shit you find in the woods is grizzly bear shit?

it has bells in it and smells like pepper spray

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 23:27 | 4504623 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Nope, I think the US crossed the line on this one by pulling this shit during the Olympics.  I imagine Putin is the type of person that gets mad then gets even.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 12:01 | 4506948 trader1
trader1's picture

"Putin will leap at the first chance he has of saving face..."

 

flakmeister, right again.  as usual...

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 12:18 | 4507072 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It looks like he just did...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 18:57 | 4504000 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

That is the key question investors must consider in deciding whether the Ukraine crisis is a Rothschild-style buying opportunity, or a last chance to bail out of risk-assets before it is too late.

Why not just call Putin and ask him what his next move will be. I'm sure all the Russian Oligarchs have.  Cha-Ching

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:46 | 4504413 chump666
chump666's picture

Yep, Putin's cronies probably have bought en masse grain/corn/oil futures and went short their own currency.   And since UK/Germany and the EU will drop the ball on Ukraine...the money printers are smiling once again.

It's a beautiful world.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 02:20 | 4505517 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

And don;t you know it too....

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 18:58 | 4504004 Richard Whitney
Richard Whitney's picture

A Russian takeover of Crimea might be a benefit to Ukraine. Crimea is mostly Russian-speaking, and more importantly, is an economic drain on Ukraine. Crimea receives a lot more economic support from Ukraine than it contributes (= welfare state). This burden can be Putin's now, for a very low price.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:39 | 4504184 s-logic
s-logic's picture

You think so? What about rental payments from Mr. Putin to Ukrainian govt for the lease of Sevastopol military base?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:00 | 4504011 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Crisis, waste, not.

right up there with

Nuke, orbit, sure.

and that American classic...

Please drive thru

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:01 | 4504016 cheetahbaby
cheetahbaby's picture

Maybe Foodstamp Barry can send his Free Shit Army to liberate Urkaine. If the war grinds into next winter he can always reward those who survive the brutal Eurasia cold with free food stamps and housing for life.....

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:12 | 4504066 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Big-MIC is busy right now.   Or were you thinking of another free-shit army?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:53 | 4504251 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Eyes bigger than stomach.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:03 | 4504027 Zwanni
Zwanni's picture

Just to make it clear - meet the new Prime Minister of Ukraine right in the middle

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Arseni_Jazenjuk_on_Maidan_greetin...

So what else should Putin do.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:16 | 4504087 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

It looks like they're cloning EU technocrats now- Nigel Farage would love this guy.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:18 | 4504092 DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

Well, western Ukraine did meet the Nazis as liberators. The Nazis then proceeded to imprison or liquidate the leadership of the new independent Ukraine. I guess the Ukrainians were too Nazi for the Nazis, not so much for the US/EU.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:06 | 4504040 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Brrr... It's cold out.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:10 | 4504055 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Snowden bet on Russia. He seems like a very smart guy. Guess I will also.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:11 | 4504060 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Please add your support to this petition at Whitehouse.gov, to https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/stay-out-ukraine/ZBPTKbtb ">Keep the U.S. Out of Ukraine.  Please also forward the link, or add it to your social media outlets.  Once the petition has 150 endorsements, it will be posted on the Whitehouse.gov website for others to endorse.

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/stay-out-ukraine/ZBPTKbtb ">https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/stay-out-ukraine/ZBPTKbtb

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:46 | 4504417 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Petitions?  If Obama is dead set on war, which I doubt, a petition isn't going to do shit.  The threat of civil unrest and possibly civil war on the other hand...  I suspect that there are a lot of people who don't fancy eating irradiated food, especially when the irradiation device is an SS-18 Satan.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:43 | 4504584 83_vf_1100_c
83_vf_1100_c's picture

Don't waste precious minutes signing a petition at Whitehouse.gov. I have. 2 months later you'll receive a bs canned response that dances around the issue and they will do what obongo decrees. We The People have no voice today.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:56 | 4504942 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

You may be right, but even the signers of the Declaration petitioned the crown for redress of their greivances.  I see half a dozen "stop Putin" petitions, but only one saying it's none of our damn business.  Where are the Ron Paul supporters; who will take Washington's advice to beware of foreign entanglements?  Please, sign the petition, forward it.  It can only help toward building a critical mass because the media won't do it.

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/stay-out-ukraine/ZBPTKbtb

 

Link Here.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:12 | 4504062 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Obama brings an ObamaPhone and an ObamaPen to the fight, Putin brings a brain. Pathetic.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:25 | 4504100 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

It's not a fight the US needs to get involved in.  I would have rather had Obama do nothing and keep his mouth shut, but the next best thing is to make idle threats and do nothing.  Worst outcomes would be sanctions, which would probably hurt us more than Russia, or military action by the US or NATO.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:30 | 4504150 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

Idle threats you have no intention of enforcing are dangerous....

When you have ZERO credibility, you have nothing

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:56 | 4504157 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

Not as dangerous as getting involved militarily.  I guess one could argue some weak sanctions would be better than doing nothing given that threats have already been made. Don't agree with your statement that if you have no credibility you have nothing: if you can carry out threats, that's worth something, whether or not people believe you.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:30 | 4504147 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Obama better bring his teleprompter too or he won't know what to say.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:12 | 4504488 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

with some 20 year old facebook sort of genius typing in the prompter responses, while dressed as a pirate.  great stuff.

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:31 | 4504063 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

RUSL and Gazprom (OTC) are almost literally gifts at this level.  I have RUSL in the mid-14's and am waiting another day or 2 on Gazprom.

My thanks to the iKidz and whatever other whacked-out auto-trading s/w created this opportunity.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:31 | 4504153 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The only way the Possum defense strategy works is if the predator doesn't eat Possum. Obama looking inept and weak does not advance any agenda that most Americans would accept as their own, even with the double standard that affirmative action jobs provide.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:09 | 4504298 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Hey Honcha - Good struff. I like RUSL also, but what would be a good Chicago based stock to sell as a pairs trade?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:33 | 4504829 ricky663
ricky663's picture

My stock guru/instructor taught me to wait for the "second dip" before nibbling. It seems that gaps down are rarely V shaped.
But I like your picks and have put them on the radar screen.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:14 | 4504077 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

War or no war, everything just changed. Russia does not make moves like this without calculating every angle and having a greater plan. This is not just about Crimea, Putin will be Europe's new king soon enough.

 

US has two options. All out war or watch its relevance slip away. And we haven't even seen the other actors come onto the stage yet. China, Iran, and North Korea surely have a role to play in this. 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:19 | 4504094 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re: North Korea

The ninja shock-troops!  

(I'm assuming that North Koreans have ninja's...)

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:03 | 4504676 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Ninjas are Japanese

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:26 | 4504130 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

Are you sure the US in not being goaded into overextending themselves - the cracks in the empire are starting to show.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:48 | 4504427 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It could be.  We did that to the USSR.  Maybe it's payback time.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:26 | 4504537 UselessEater
UselessEater's picture

US is being isolated on too many fronts (rightly or wrongly) for this to not be a bigger game plan....

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/03/china-supports-russia-former-co...

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:23 | 4504112 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

We can't take this sitting down. After all, Ukraine is right on our border.

 

...oh, wait a sec.....

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:24 | 4504117 esum
esum's picture

iron fist putin vs limp wrist bendover obama rodeo clown

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:35 | 4504162 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

It's not our fight.    Obama should just change the subject.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:24 | 4504120 beyondtheprogramming
beyondtheprogramming's picture

at the uppermost levels, everyone's on the same side so is it really the world vs. Putin? hope we're not going to get distracted again by the mainstream narrative...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:28 | 4504139 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

much like Syria the MSM is doing their part for their govt masters- much like Syria nothing will happen from the US.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:26 | 4504128 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

This time is different.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:27 | 4504134 cheetahbaby
cheetahbaby's picture

Barry needs to put his community organizer skills to good use on the Eurasian land mass. What an utter fool....

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:33 | 4504159 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Community organizing only works when you have free shit to hand out. Obama's wallet is starting to look a little thin.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:32 | 4504154 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Last I checked, the FED's still pumping out 65 odd billion/month, so I'd say its safe to BTFD here.  Short of the Russians nuking Wall Street, nothing's going to trump the FED's monetization party.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:36 | 4504170 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Well, I suppose that when the shit hits the fan, you can use all those winnings as fuel to cook your rodent of choice over. I guess it is as good as any other distraction till then.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:11 | 4504164 Angus McHugepenis
Angus McHugepenis's picture

The sign of 'Hope", NEXT EXIT. I know where that sign is. It's the entrance to the Coqahalla Highway just outside of Abottsford BC as you attempt to drive across the Rockies.

Nobody ever turns off at that sign.

Edit: We always joke about doing "coke" (the Highway). In summer, you wouldn't believe what drives through those mountains at fucktard speed.

Full comunications... Ferarri, Lambo, and believe it or not, blown old cars.

Injection is nice, but I'd rather be blown.

When I ask if you do "coke"... remember... I'm talking about the highway...

250 kmh uphill.

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:39 | 4504167 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Another attempt to get the attention of Neocons as a "gifted writer"?

You know, many literary experts agree that what made Charles Dickens so financially successful was the fact that he wrote for the rich & powerful Aristocrats in a way as they saw themselves:  "Even if yo put our kind in the worst (orphaned) circumstances, we shall rise back to the top due to our fine breeding".

And, like Dickens, this author also seems to "know his audience".

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:36 | 4504172 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Rothschild-style buying opportunity? 

No, more like denial to Rothschild looting, do not pass go, do not collect $200 dollars, do NOT collect Ukraine resources, do not dump/trade EU debt for Ukraine assets. 

The EU is dead meat to die a thousand cuts of Muslim Socialist invasion, a slow death of Socialist suffocation, Ukraine and Russia have both "been there, done that"

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:37 | 4504175 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Germany and the UK have already bailed out of any action other than language along the lines of 'concerned'. This deal is over unless Ukrainians decide to fight a guerrilla war. considering the leverage Russia holds, I doubt much will happen. Obama should have kept his mouth shut, but since now he has thrown down the 'serious reprucussions' wording , the US looks even more impotent than we did during the Syrian mess... that is still ongoing. I'm sure he is hoping the Chinese or NKs or someone would start shooting to take attention away from another hollow action.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:26 | 4504735 Element
Element's picture

Yup, mission accomplished meets sound-bite addiction.

They just keep overstating everything on strategic issues and bluffing in the dumbest way, while Russia says almost nothing about it.

The US needs to rapidly look back at the diplomatic capacity and the foreign policy leaders it had in the cold war era (not kissinger), and sack these idiots like Kerry immediately.

But given he's Obozo's man of the hour, he'll be staying on deck, while the band plays on, and the US keeps fucking itself in the foreign policy poop-shute with a strategic policy dildo made out of barbed wire, while wondering why the infection keeps spreading.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:37 | 4504176 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

The Ukraine is flat broke....and it's infratsructure falling apart.  Putin knows that and is taking advantage of it.  The truth is most everybody in Ukraine would be economically better off if they were part of Russia at this point. Few want to return under the Russian boot, but beggars can't be chosers.  Russia can also shut off the gas pipeline at any time. So if US, IMF etc comes up with Ukraine bailout of 30 B etc Putin will just squeeze more out of it until he gets what he wants: which I think is to allow Ukraine some autonomy but taking orders from him....which is basically what was happening with the now deposed leader. Just my opinion

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:36 | 4504558 Chaos_Theory
Chaos_Theory's picture

The US is flat broke....and its infrastructure is faling apart.  Putin knows this and is taking advantage of it. 

At least the broke Europeans have sweet architecture and historical locales.  And no Lardassians. 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:39 | 4504181 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture
As Pro-European Protests Seize Ukraine, Jewish Oligarch Victor Pinchuk Is a Bridge to the West

 

One breezy evening last September, Viktor Pinchuk, Ukraine’s second-richest man, stepped onstage at the Livadia Palace in the Black Sea resort of Yalta to introduce the star speaker of the annual international conference he hosts to promote his country’s ties with the West: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Nearby, at a table set for an exquisite five-course meal, sat her husband; they were joined in the hall by Shimon Peres and Tony Blair, as well as a number of former European heads of state, top diplomats, and business tycoons. “Mr. President, you are really a super star,” Pinchuk told Bill Clinton in a seemingly apologetic tone, “but Secretary Clinton, she is a real, real mega star.”

 

 

http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/155976/ukraines-wester...

 

 

 

Victor Pinchuk Foundation supports the Clinton Global Initiative

Mr Pinchuk committted to give half or more of his fortune during his lifetime and beyond to philanthropic causes, joining the Giving Pledge, a philanthropic initiative founded in 2010 by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett.

 

Other projects of the Victor Pinchuk Foundation have included the free open air “Independence Concert” by Paul McCartney in Kyiv attended by 350.000 people and watched on TV by 13 million Ukrainians, the production of a film with

Steven Spielberg on the Holocaust in Ukraine, human rights projects with George Soros and support of local Jewish communities.

among others in cooperation programs with the Clinton HIV/AIDS Initiative, the Elton John AIDS Foundation.

 

Mr. Pinchuk serves on the Board of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the International Advisory Council of Brookings Institution

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:44 | 4504209 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I'm impressed.  Is there some "special school" we can send our kids to, so that they too can rise to the top of companies?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!