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What Inflation? Here Are The Various Components Of The CPI Basket

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today we pointed out a curious divergence: while owner equivalent rent, the measurement of imputed costs of renting, has risen to the highest since the Lehman failure, total non-shelter core CPI continues to decline. What is notable is that OER amounts to 23.9% of the CPI basket - as such it is the single largest determinant of inflation as measured by the BLS. And yet everything else, hedonically adjusted of course, keeps falling. By how much? And do you agree with the BLS' estimates of inflation? To answer these not so important questions, here is the full CPI basket, broken down by weighings, and by annual change.

At first blush, a lot of the "inflationary" assumptions shown below make little if any sense, but then again who are we to argue with the Arima-X-1 seasonal adjustment juggernaut of a few good Econ PhDs.

 

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Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:26 | 4504131 VD
VD's picture

pure BS! inflation well over 3%..for while now...and that's not factoring ponzi rigged equities which are more than double their fundamentals...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:32 | 4504156 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

BLS = Bullshit & Laughable Satire

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:36 | 4504174 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

I stopped paying rent when I moved into maw-maw's basement

that kind of hedonic adjustment proves that deflation is in full swing

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:51 | 4504237 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Inflation doesn't count;... if you don't count inflation...

 

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:06 | 4504286 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Lasagna up 20%, I am pissed.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:14 | 4504311 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

 

 

Check out John Williams Shadowstats to find out . . .

The Real Lies behind the CPI

Total Bullshit fed to us daily.

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:15 | 4504318 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I call bullshit...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:31 | 4504371 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Education up 1.5%

What fucking world do these asshats live in?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:56 | 4504944 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I saw that too.  It's lumped with "communication" and hedonically adjusted.  In short, magic.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:29 | 4505171 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

When the number gets too big, they change the equation.  Pure lies, but what do you expect?

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:40 | 4505268 mliu_01
mliu_01's picture

Bullcrap just got a lot more aboundant and much cheaper. It drags the average price of food way down.  Eat less steak and eat more bullshit. Then you will see the wrath of deflation.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 01:23 | 4505342 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Future Bananamerican..."Honey, today, I manage to purchase 2 kilos of gmo tomatoes at Traitor Joes for 575 dollarz"

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:16 | 4504313 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

<delete dupe>

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:51 | 4504241 old naughty
old naughty's picture

looks to me a basket case of realINdex...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:49 | 4504280 CognacAndMencken
CognacAndMencken's picture

 

 

Has anyone figured out why oil went to $150 in 2008?  The entire world economy was 6 months into the worst recession since the Great Depression, inventories were increasing and yet oil shot to the moon for no apparent reason.  It certainly couldn't have been inflationary forces or money printing that shot it to $150.  After trillions in new money supply, it's just now crossing $100.  What was the story with oil in 2008? 

Was it really the guys at GSCI? 

Of all the conspiracy theories, the oil "super spike" of 2008 is - BY FAR - the most suspicious to me.  And what's even more suspicious is that no one talks about it or seems to care.  I mean, c'mon (!!!).. oil suddenly untethered itself from ALL FUNDAMENTALS and shot to the moon, which, in turn, tilted the entire world into a massive economic collapse.... and no one is talking about it?? 

*LOL*

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:05 | 4504463 F22
F22's picture

One of the best associations I've seen postulated has to do with Saudi Arabia and the gold for oil trade.  As the gold supply has tightened, it has become more difficult to keep the flow of gold for oil to Saudi Arabia going.  They will not accept potentially worthless fiat for their oil.  If they cannot get paid in gold, the price in dollars will skyrocket.  Perhaps the spike to $150 had everything to do with dwindling gold supplies and little or nothing to do with oil supplies.  Check out http://www.FOFOA.BLOGSPOT.COM.  The latest post is lengthy but touches on this association.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:28 | 4504803 CognacAndMencken
CognacAndMencken's picture

 

 

To be honest, that's one of the dumbest explanations for the 2008 "super spike" I've ever read.

Seriously. 

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 23:55 | 4505170 F22
F22's picture

Admittedly, my explanation was brief.  Understanding the context of freegold requires a commitment to reading the thoughts of Another.  If, as your post suggests, you are truly curious about the dollar price of oil and the factors affecting it the brilliant research and logic of fofoa may eventually help you to understand.  Those familiar with FOFOA and the freegold blog will attest to the value of learning the history of gold and the dollar's reserve status.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 01:46 | 4505412 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You simply ask too much.  The information from FOFOA takes a bit of time, and, as you say, looking back to the work of Another, to fully comprehend.   It's not blather offered on a silver platter of sound-bites and simple graphs on CNN.  This makes any regular guy off the street (I ain't naming any names here) oblivious to complex truths.  Wouldn't it be nice if the world ran on simple one-on-one cause and effect?  Since it's not, the typical person will look to the simplest of explanations and then go rest all comfy and relax on the sofa, fire up the tube, and rip open a bag o' chips.  Don't ask so much of simple souls.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 08:19 | 4505974 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

then allow me to attempt to summarise:

FOFOA claims that the oligarchy - both old european (Rothchild types) and the new oil barons of Saudi Arabia know the true value of gold to be perhaps 20x the comex price. They dont want to spoil the fiat party until necessary, so they tolerate this divergence in value for now

Because of this, the saudi's have been accepting gold for oil at a much greater equivalent value than the comex price. The blog puts their position like so -Arabia says, "I will sell oil for $10US a barrel or in gold valued at $10,000"

now, when a crisis like 2008 happens and everyone clings onto their gold in self preservation mode, it pisses off the Saudis. They dont want to trade their consumable wealth - oil - for other transitory and ephermeral sources of wealth like $US toilet paper - they want to be paid in a medium that will maintain its wealth as a legacy for generations to come. So when the US/West stops handing over gold for oil, the Saudi's jack up the price of oil to compensate themselves for not receiving the shiny yellow stuff.

its not only germany that received scrap metal gold - anecdotes from dubai also say the gold they are getting from the US is old coins and collectables from the back of the vaults that they have to smelt back into bars. 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 08:48 | 4506040 lucyvp
lucyvp's picture

This sounds like another similar theory posutlated by Eric Janszen at itulip.com.  He has a theory called GAGFO, which is an acronym for good as gold for oil.  When the U.S. is doing well economically, countries are willing to hold $$$ as foreign reserves in general to be able to purchase oil on the open market.   When the U.S. is in economic or political turmoil central banks move their allocation to less dollars and more gold.  This explains CB's being net buyers of gold since the financial crisis of 08.  Lack of confidence in the usd.  Janszen attributes the decline in gold to the u.s. importing less oil since the fracking boom, and closing the budget deficit since 08.  However he views both to these as short term trends and gold prices will continue their upward trend in a few more years.

 

I would be curious where is a good place to find out about FOFOA

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:07 | 4504243 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

* copied from www.silverdoctors.com deepcaster story.

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported February 20, 2014
1.5%     /    9.17%

U.S. Unemployment reported February 7, 2014
6.6%     /     23.2%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported January 30, 2013
2.74%        /     -1.40%

U.S. M3 reported February 15, 2014 (Month of January, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     /     3.07% (i.e., total M3 Now at $15.544 Trillion!)

 

“Only new-home sales data showed positive monthly results. Yet, with that series at 65% below its pre-recession highs, and with headline monthly and annual gains well shy of approaching statistical significance.”

 

“Durable Goods Orders in Downturn,” Commentary Number 603

www.shadowstats.com, John Williams, 02/27/2014

 

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and Power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster‘s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled, “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel‘s Dark Interventions – III,” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled, “Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds,” in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster‘s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster‘s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:42 | 4504204 DonFromWyoming
DonFromWyoming's picture

Yep.  Cattle at highest prices ever.  WTI crude $105.  NAR reports 9.9% increase in housing prices (YOY) for December 2013.  Gummint BS - through the roof!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:47 | 4504226 VegasBob
VegasBob's picture

Of course BLS inflation figures are bullshit.  BLS disguises inflation with "hedonic" adjustments, which represent "quality improvements."

 

Toilet paper is probably a good example.  Back in the late 90s/early 2000s, you used to get 280 sheets of 2 ply paper per roll, and a store brand roll cost about 25 cents.

 

Now you get a "double" roll that has only 240 sheets of double ply paper puffed up with air and it costs about a dollar.

 

Even though the true rate of toilet paper inflation is over 500% (13 sheets for a penny then vs 2.5 sheets for a penny today), the BLS will hedonically adjust that down to perhaps only 50% because it considers the "puffed up" paper a "quality improvement."

 

Here's your assignment for tomorrow morning:

 

Try to wipe your ass with a quality improvement!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:02 | 4504276 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Nice

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 05:26 | 4505756 old naughty
old naughty's picture

2-ply nice. Well put.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 06:49 | 4505831 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Scott 1000 sheets per roll.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:13 | 4504493 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

minor corrections, using your numbers: price has gone up by a factor of 4.67 (1/0.25 * 28/24) which is 367% inflation.  (A doubling of the price level is 100% inflation).

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 23:25 | 4505061 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Charmin screwed with the width of a roll late last year, going from 4.27 inches wide down to 3.92 inches wide. As it became difficult to find any remaining 4.27 inch Charmin I started checking out older non-chain grocery stores -- the kind you never buy toilet paper at -- where I found... a bunch of 4.5 inch wide rolls! This shrinking game has been played a long time...

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 00:26 | 4505235 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

What?? You dudes can still afford tape measures and scales???    Reeducation camps for you, suckas.

Forward!!!!!!

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 03:32 | 4505636 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

What BS; only 10% weighting on food, where the feck is energy. The bastards can't keep lying forever.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:28 | 4504137 Saucy-Jack
Saucy-Jack's picture

Hedonics...bitchez!!

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 08:05 | 4505937 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Wait, WAIT.....this just in...

AS folks work longer hours for less pay, they will have less time to buy anything so the rate of inflation will naturally go down!

On a long enough time frame, inflation will go to ZERO!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:35 | 4504148 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Lots of multifamily construction going on in Florida in the last few years.  Suspect that will keep a lid on rents. Lot of those properties picked up on the cheap in the recession.

There should be a narrow column added for our pet expenses. The cost of owning a good hound has not gotten any cheaper the last few years. DayHoundcare & Kenneling prices are through the roof.  It is getting increasingly difficult to get your hound enrolled in the best kennels.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:35 | 4504165 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

GOLD. What about that highly inflated "gold bubble"?  I have to have buy that monthly you know...

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:35 | 4504166 Sleepless Knight
Sleepless Knight's picture

Just throw in gas at $3.70 a gallon and see where that gets ya.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 01:49 | 4505425 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

What?  Nah.  It's still just 2 thin silver dimes.

http://www.coininfo.com/calculators/

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:38 | 4504178 deus x machina
deus x machina's picture

the fresh bread at kroger went up 30%  that's a lot of dough!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 23:09 | 4504997 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, but they sliced the loaf into 40% more pieces, so it's actually a 10% decrease in price.  See how that works?

Next up: pizza.  

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:39 | 4504185 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I guess the BLS got an exemption from Obamacare.

Or no one has actually bought any yet

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:39 | 4504187 kareninca
kareninca's picture

From my last trip to Trader Joe's to the most recent, the bread that I have bought for years (organic soy crunch) has gone from $2.99 to $3.29.  A ten percent increase.  I remember clearly when it was $1.79.

Fuck you, Bernanke.  If an upper-middle-class American notices, I can only imagine how the poor in the third world whom you are starving, feel about it.

Well, the Fed no doubt likes little wars, like in the Ukraine.  Drives down the U.S. stock market (which the Fed presently sees as a bit high), without the Fed being blamed.  Drives down the 10 year Treasury rate; win-win U.S. housing, the Fed's favorite.  Disgusting.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 01:51 | 4505429 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The lowly banana at Sam's has gone from 99c for 5 lbs to $1.49 for 5 lbs.

I'll leave you to do the math.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:40 | 4504190 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Again I say...FUCK whatever the government states.

 

A pack of shit sucking liars..........

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:40 | 4504192 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Wait until the goverment discovers section 8's are being priced out. Next, socialistic rent controls.

The game goes on until people have no place to live or eat. 

 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 02:04 | 4505474 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Anybody else think of section eight in military terms?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:40 | 4504193 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Well, like everything else...  

The inflation numbers for the top 20% economy is entirely different for the losers at the bottom (but, nobody cares about them anyway).

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:40 | 4504194 IPA
IPA's picture

I recently switched to lawn mower, wayyyy cheaper than great clips 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:41 | 4504195 Ewtman
Ewtman's picture

The argument for global deflation is a strong one. While local prices in some areas may be rising, it is arguable that CPI, PPI, housing and other indicators reflect short term movements, i.e. bear market rallies, in an otherwise collapsing economic environment. Today's market collapse could be just the beginning of a long term deflationary decline brought on by the popping of a bubble decades in the making. 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...

 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:42 | 4504200 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Fonestar is confused about housing being > 40%. Fonestar has free basement and free wifi

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:57 | 4504440 frankthomaswhite59
frankthomaswhite59's picture

please don't feed the troll

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:45 | 4504217 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

I'm not sure why the communication/education portion is under 2%, my internet connection (with AT&T providing speeds much like a dial up) has tripled in the last 7 years, they raise the price every quarter.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:49 | 4504232 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

it took almost a full minute to post that comment, the hedge is just hanging up bigtime!!! >:-[

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:52 | 4504245 WhiteWolf
WhiteWolf's picture

Transportation way down???  Manipulation all over it. 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 19:57 | 4504262 denverdolomte
denverdolomte's picture

Comparison Charts ::

Electricity Feb. 2013 Feb. 2014

Electricity kWh 47.1 71.9
Electricity Cost $5.18 $7.89

To note :: my usage is higher because I built an indoor greenhouse to grown my own food in the winter months. But the yOy increase.....hmmmmm what is this inflation they say isn't happening? I love my bill going from $190/mt to $385/mt

Luckily here in Denver we have one Utility company to choose from, but thank goodness for regulations and them stopping monopolization of industries....ohhh wait what?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:07 | 4504468 F22
F22's picture

Can you smoke the "food" that you grow in your indoor greenhouse?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:10 | 4504484 denverdolomte
denverdolomte's picture

Maybe haha, but more so grow temp sensitive plants in there, since my tomatoes, peppers, and spices usually freeze or fry here every year from the drastic shifts in weather we get.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:02 | 4504275 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

So, 1st we kill all housing values, and let renters buy them on the cheap ....

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:13 | 4504308 real
real's picture

eastern long island    all my clients for the past 3 yrs are connected to wall str compared to prior yrs all clients were higher middle class none financial types.   the new clients are  good people but elitists with justification. lots of "becoming god " types.   which is just the new form to justifications, not only hording wealth at all costs but dilutes earthly responsibility. 

delusional people who spout surface concern of symptoms to none sustainability but celebrate and support higher gdp   we are fucked as of today. maybe tomorrow will be different 
Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:24 | 4504354 Dead Man Walking
Dead Man Walking's picture

why are education and communication grouped together ? So tuition which  "only"  went up 3k this year is offset by my vonage bill, which having stayed the same but includes 50% more minutes for the same $20./mo. Since tuition went up ten % but my voip phone bill effectively went down 50%, so I am ahead ofthe game by 40% ??  Is that why they are grouped together?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 20:38 | 4504386 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Good thing Education and Communication are combined. Depressing picture otherwise.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:04 | 4504459 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

In NY local property taxes now have 'caps' - in theory.  Local gov has been staying within the limits - with cuts to meet those limits but the local school system is playing major games.  Teachers agreed to 0% raises this year and 1% next year BUT the district is still pulling money out of 'reserves' to stay within the cap.  Wonder how long those 'reserves' are going to last.  

And this is a 'good' district (though not as good as they think) where parents pony up some big $$$ to pay for things that SHOULD be part of the district budget.  The local educational 'foundation' lets people write off contributions while paying for a better school system than the local tax base would otherwise be willing to support.  

Note:  MY property taxes have still TRIPLED in the 20 years I've been here and are more than I made (gross) as the top paid engineer in my graduating class in 1980. I figure our local property taxes are 10-15 times what my brother in NC pays though the school systems there are horrid - his kids are dumb as rocks (his then 3rd grader - a 'top' reader in his school couldn't match our Kindergartener).   Things didn't get better with time... his kids went to the lower tier state schools in NC, mine to some of the best in the country (though that was IN SPITE of the local school system).

Sadly I've come to the conclusion that most public schools (with VERY few exceptions) at the top or bottom rarely manage to do a really good job.  They do OK with reasonably intelligent kids - though they leave the very top performers bored to tears.  The vast middle is given little attention and muddles through without really reaching their potential.  The bottom group is dealt with ONLY because laws and regulations demand that schools pay attention to them though the end result is still pretty sad even for the 'successes'.  On the other hand most charter schools are excuses for blatant discrimination or money makers for private owners and traditional private schools are often overpriced - appealing to snobbery more than developing potential.   The 'competitive' public schools seem to do the best job with truly bright kids but there are maybe a few dozen of them in the country.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:53 | 4504636 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Food and beverage is up only 1% from last year? These numbers seem notably low from my reality.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 21:58 | 4504659 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Why don't they include taxes in the computation of the CPI?  Taxes are gong up dramatically.

 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 02:41 | 4505559 Paveway IV
Paveway IV's picture

Surprised nobody else pointed this out. Never mind electric and gas rate increases - look at all that extra tax crap on your bill. Wired phone service? I think the taxes and fees were as much as the damn basic service. Now add in soft taxes, like mandatory auto insurance. I'm pissed that bare-bones minimum legal liability coverage today costs about what a DWI would cost you in high risk rates ten or fifteen years ago. Then there's the Obamacare soft tax... er fine. 

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:38 | 4504851 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

Bullard from the Fed says there is no inflation.  Do not question the Fed.  

#bullshitartist

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:41 | 4504876 Freedumb
Freedumb's picture

I give up. Maybe it's time for the maxim: "If you can't beat em, join em". Working at the BLS seems to be a good gig, the mathematics seem real simple (just make shit up), the media never picks apart your work and there's even a touch of creative writing. Plus I bet you can never be fired. Anyone know if they're hiring?

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 22:50 | 4504921 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

There is one, and ONLY one "inflation" the fed and their handlers care about:

Wage inflation.

Everything else will be massaged, stroked, hand-jobbed, or otherwise hedonically adjusted to flat or even deflation.

Volker raised rates because workers were demanding (and getting) real COLA raises, primarily thru unions and such.

Those days are gone. Long gone.

You won't see admitted inflation again probaby in your lifetime.

As the Nazis knew all too well.......If you gonna lie, tell a big one. And the masses will eventually believe it.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 02:17 | 4505508 Marlon Brando
Marlon Brando's picture

Very astute observation, once you realize we are human livestock to the .000000001 it gets easier to recognize what is really going on.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 23:38 | 4505109 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

at what point or price does power from fossil fuels actually force people to use manual labor to do stuff, bicycles don't count yet they are mainly recreation  but when does labor become cheaper than hydralic operated machines? $400 barrel? $1000  I don'r care I'm a useless old person.

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 23:52 | 4505160 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Those who believe any government numbers deserve the same fate as those who use XP for security.

 

Nemeses, bitches!

Mon, 03/03/2014 - 23:56 | 4505176 Marlon Brando
Marlon Brando's picture

What we are seeing is stagflation. Prices rising not because of increased real demand but increased printing. I gauge inflation based on cheese prices. Well over fifteen percent per year rise each of the last three years. 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 03:02 | 4505598 sangell
sangell's picture

I don't follow too many retail prices but I buy 2 litre bottles of Dr.Pepper regularly at the Dollar Store down the street. They've gone from $1.35 a year ago to $1.50 know. Beef too is getting very pricey. Good hamburger today is where New York Steaks were 2 or 3 years ago.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 05:46 | 4505775 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

After much thought I have come to the conclusion that while inflation appears tame and is not showing up in a big way the seeds have been planted, and the number of them is somewhat shocking. Inflation lurks beneath the surface and is hidden away in the dark corners of our future. Want to know where the real cost of things is going, just look at the replacement cost from recent storms and natural disasters.

Several things to consider when trying to understand inflation come to mind, first competition tends to keep price increases in check, and our slow growth economy is helping the consumer in many areas. People concerned about inflation down the road point out that an increase in the speed or velocity that money moves about the economy or where money flows could change all that. More on the subject of where inflation is hiding in the article below,

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/inflation-lurks-beneath-and-hidde...

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:15 | 4506322 jaygould
jaygould's picture

"OER has risen to the highest since the Lehman failure, total non-shelter core CPI continues to decline. What is notable is that OER amounts to 23.9% of the CPI basket - as such it is the single largest determinant of inflation as measured by the BLS...."

Q? are u implying that OER = 23.9% of CPI-U basket - or - of core CPI?????

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