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It Begins: Gazprom Warns European Gas "Supply Disruptions" Possible
We had previously warned that Putin's "trump card" had yet to be played and with Obama (and a quickly dropping list of allies) preparing economic sanctions (given their limited escalation options otherwise), it was only a matter of time before the pressure was once again applied from the Russian side. As ITAR-TASS reports, Russia's Gazprom warned that not only could it cancel its "supply discount" as Ukraine's overdue payments reached $1.5 billion but that "simmering political tensions in Ukraine, that are aggravated by inadequate economic conditions, may cause disruptions of gas supplies to Europe." And with that one sentence, Europe will awaken to grave concerns over Russia's next steps should sanctions be applied.
It would appear this is the most important map in Europe once again...
Some recent history...
In late January, Ukraine asked Russia for deferral of payments for gas supplied in 2013 and in early 2014. President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine’s debt totalled $2.7 billion then.
and then...
On March 1, Gazprom’s spokesperson Sergai Kupriyanov said the gas holding could cancel its gas supply discount for Ukraine as its overdue debt for gas reached $1.5 billion. This figure includes debts not only for last year’s supplies, but also for the current deliveries.
"The situation with payments is worrying," said Andrei Kruglov, Gazprom's chief financial officer.
"Ukraine is paying but not as well as we would like it to. We are still thinking about whether to extend the pricing contract into the next quarter based on current prices."
And now today...
Russia’s gas giant Gazprom said on Monday it did not rule out possible disruptions of gas supplies to Europe over Ukraine’s political situation.
“Simmering political tensions in Ukraine, that are aggravated by inadequate economic conditions, may cause disruptions of gas supplies to Europe,” the monopoly said in its materials, adding that it would do its utmost to reduce export risks.
“We will further invest into other export-oriented projects such as South Stream and will enhance our LNG (liquefied natural gas) production and export capacity. We also increase our access to underground gas storage facilities in Europe.”
Andrei Kruglov, Gazprom’s chief financial officer, said at the moment Russia had been supplying gas to Ukraine according to schedule, although the latter failed to fulfil its debt obligations.
With that last sentence providing exactly the 'real world' cover Gazprom needs to cut its supplies "through" Ukraine and thus to Europe...
And, as The Guardian notes, this would...
not the first time Russia has used gas exports to put pressure on its neighbour – and "gas wars" between the two countries tend to be felt far beyond their borders. Russia, after all, still supplies around 30% of Europe's gas.
In late 2005, Gazprom said it planned to hike the price it charged Ukraine for natural gas from $50 per 1,000 cubic metres, to $230. The company, so important to Russia that it used to be a ministry and was once headed by the former president (and current prime minister) Dmitry Medvedev, said it simply wanted a fair market price; the move had nothing to do with Ukraine's increasingly strong ties with the European Union and Nato. Kiev, unsurprisingly, said it would not pay, and on 1 January 2006 – the two countries having spectacularly failed to reach an agreement – Gazprom turned off the taps.
The impact was immediate – and not just in Ukraine. The country is crossed by a network of Soviet-era pipelines that carry Russian natural gas to many European Union member states and beyond; more than a quarter of the EU's total gas needs were met by Russian gas, and some 80% of it came via Ukrainian pipelines. Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy and Poland soon reported gas pressure in their own pipelines was down by as much as 30%.
Short of an actual war, the consensus appeared to be, Europe's gas supplies are unlikely to be seriously threatened (since Putin relies on those revenues)... that is clearly about to change with Gazprom's comments.
As the following image from Agence France Presse (created at the end of last year) indicates, things are about to get a lot more problemati for Germany, France, and Italy...
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LOL! Was this $5 billion from Russia to Scotland to go independent a joke?
Maybe Putin could offer a few billion to each US state to go independent. I am game.
Thank you for that insightful deep analysis...
I'm eagerly awaiting one of your long-winded peak oil diatribes.
At least I am capable of putting together an article covering a technical subject, whereas you, if I am not mistaken, have never done anything like that...
So run along my little troll, or surprise me with something of substance...
Pussy. I gotta tell ya without pussy everything is kinda sad and lonely. So pussy is way up on the list for me!
Yes, Putin is rolling the dice, 30 years ago, the USSR controlled all of the Black Sea except for Turkey...Now they have to invade the Crimea....
A desperate move driven by gross mismanagement in the crown jewel in the Russian sphere of influence...
If all it took was $5 billion over 23 years to pull this off, Putin is a fool. To put in perspective that is the same revenue that flow to Russia via the Ukr. gas lines every 100 days... i.e. peanuts...
Horrendous move and extremely dangerous. Majority of Russians will feel wheat and oil price spikes, mix that with Ruble collapse.
When I see "should ..." or "need to ..." I stop reading, it's fantasy bullshit talk.
... like DOD saying Russian troops need to return to base.
Russians least popular people on the planet? LOL! Hardly.
Americans are probably the most hated ***kers on earth now including as far our as the Crab Nebula to the shoulder of Orion and Tannhauser Gate.
Look at our non-American "leader", Hillary, Kerry and McCain and how many people they have droned and kiled with the Bushes and Clintons for the NWO. I mean we have F'ed over numerous continents. Asia, Middle East, North Africa, the Balkans and the list goes on. I would hate us too.
See, everything changed this past weekend. You gotta learn faster.
In a world where the choice is between being raped by Ivan or being indebted to the banksters, most folks will chose the second.
LOL! You sound like you watch TV. Probably RTL.
bet you love Bill Oreilly.....anywho, Ivan ain't doing shit to us. He just wants the Black Sea bathtub and thirsty EU gas needs. Anything else is neocon shit. He gets a hard on for us or China? A gun behind every blade if grass.
He needs 16,000 troops to guard the bathtub?
He needs 16,000 troops to guard the bathtub?
Who is he? Reggie? Obama?
"In a world where the choice is between being raped by Ivan or being indebted to the banksters, most folks will chose the second."
Are you fcking nuts?
The US still has the Anglo/Israeli consortium
Well, is a part of same, at least
Other than that-------hmmmmmm!!!!!
I just don't know that much about all of this
I don't think a majority of Russians wants that.
How the fuck do you know that? You sound like a fag.
While Putin rides half naked bareback on a wild stallion, down a frenzied river in mid winter, muscles rippling, what do we have from the whitehouse.
A pussy boy whining on about womens rights and faggots getting married.
Guess which one looks like a man.
Do you think the Russians might just draw their own comnclusions.
Did his make up artist smudge his lipstick by the way on his poncy little poseur picture trying to look like a man when on the phone and all important
Just wondering, or maybe he'd been sucking on something
Has it ever occured to you that maybe, just maybe the Russian leader is POSING for these pictures and these pictures of himself are a well orchestrated propaganda campaign to target Americans (for example) who are obiously starved for leadership?
russian are very manly and they tend to appreciate very manly leaders.
i agree with your point, russian are not stupid nor blind.
and all they can see is that, the have a president who's a real man, versus Obomba-faggot-woman rights
Putin no doubt enjoys doing manly things in the company of other men....
probably you're missing the fact that obomba have been renamed Bathouse Barry....
You wrote: While Putin rides half naked bareback on a wild stallion, down a frenzied river in mid winter, muscles rippling,.....
You're among friends, here. You can come out of the closet. Just admit you love Putiporn.
missing /sarc me thinks
"Just proves that Russia's leadership is not sensible and should not be allowed to control such an important resource. They're not concerned about a shortfall of $1.5 billion"
I have a feeling that you, as a most obvious EU-er, will one day regret saying this. You know, when some energy exporter to the EU customer base decides to stop supply because the EU is broke and cannot pay.
And, the US is how many trillion dollars in debt and you're thinking that THEY command a better leadership position?
"If Putin is the problem,"
No. End of story. End of strawman...
The "problem" is that the EU is becoming a bunch of frack-heads, and will do whatever is necessary to get their fix. Don't like Putin and Russia? Quit buying energy from them! (you have the, um, power to do so)
What is a 'fair market price' for the monopolist, anyway? Inquiring minds want to know.
Am I the only one that sees Putin going into the Ukraine, a good thing?
Might save us a nuked planet
That is what this is all about
EU/NATO condition of membership seems to be missile shields
Or. am I interrupting something?
Nothing "good" really comes out of politics, but as far as a "good thing" goes I'd say that, politically, it's the logically correct thing to do.
The US had spent lots of $$s to destabilize things in order to push Ukraine into the EU, and, NATO. Foment enough violence and then be surprised when it all explodes?
Quick.. call the Bolsheviks Samantha Powers and Cass Sunstein... they'll know what to do... they are professors at Harvard don't ya know !
Stink-tankers (from the Stink Tanks).
Yep this is what happens when western leaders become as they are. And when they support Nazis.
Yeah, we've seen this movie before, haven't we?
where have Tylers posts been today about bitcoin being up 15%?
All good...
REPORTS STREAMING IN OF MASSIVE BUILD UP OF RUSSIAN FORCES IN #CRIMEA AND ON EAST UKRAINIAN BORDER
Remember this?
http://rt.com/news/prime-time/moscow-bomb-shelters-outskirts/
Moscow arms against nuclear attackNearly 5,000 new emergency bomb shelters will be built in Moscow by 2012 to save people in case of potential attacks.
That could be quite useful in a few weeks/months...
It may escalate rapidly. Russian tech is better than US stuff too, cruise (faster longer more accurate bigger) , ballistic, (same) air to air (fire and forget) ground to air (best anywhere) anti air (awesomely deadly) Tanks (on par) Jets (on par and better latest generation coming online now) Sea ship to ship (better) Sub (watch out USA Navy) This is not shit but fact. Look it up
^^^^^^
This.
They have very good programmers. You can even take older guys in Russia or Ukraine who know math and they become very good programmers plus they are obsessed with chess.
American programmers are top notch and I have known some of the best. But they "ain't" working at Lockheed Martin on 12 million lines of code on the dog F-35. I bet tons of that shit has been outsourced to India or with H-1Bs from India, China et al. God help the American pilots of those tubs. They better have plenty of life insurance.
Americans I have known have worked on top MIC stuff but they would never go back. Once you get those H-1B ghettoes in there - Americans are not hired. So you get fewer Americans taking com sci in college.
Just like working for the corrupt banks. I knew someone working at one of the most despised banks in the US. They would get calls at 3 am from Bangalore because some Indian FU something and they had to fix it.
And the American weapons systems end up with cheap defective Chinese parts like the dog F-22 got. Junk.
You see that corruption has spread into everything in the United States and this is how countries fall apart and fail. Corruption.
Good post, and very truthful about the H-1B's. Things are so bad now that even top grads of CS programs can submit their resumes to many tech firms in the US, as citizens, and not even receive the basic courtesy of a response.
Your points about America having "lost its soul" are also very true. Don't know if that many STEM people would even want to stand up and support a war effort in support of a fundamentally corrupt regime that has treated its scientists as being disposible and expendible while enriching banker and political/law types beyond their wildest dreams.
H1-Bs were a construct to hold off unionization, to drive down wages (which, no question, were pretty over-inflated).
Much can be attributed to the fact that growth is dead and that they've been squeezing profits from ever-narrower margins. Only a matter of time before it all fails under fatigue. It's more the road than the pilots, and that road was ALWAYS charted to the edge of the cliff: perpetual growth on a finite planet was never possible, yet, that's the path we had set upon.
You see, that's the primary difference between Russia and USSA:
Putin knew Russia's revival would raise eyebrows and blood pressure in the Pentagram and Langley (to name a few) and is fully aware of what to expect; Zio-West powers will try to push Russia into a corner, so Vlad prapared for the worst and built shelters for the people.
USSA knew it would come to a show-down with some future rising global superpower (like China) so they build luxury hiding holes for the Tribe...
Once again I'll repeat: this was all mapped out in Brzezinski's The Grand Chessboard. Not so certain that the fall of the Soviet Union changed a damn thing: maybe it's like Dr. Strange Love in that the neocons hit the button and there was no way to recall (communism no longer could be the reason for encircling the USSR).
I'd never take China as a threat, other than on the consumer level (resources). Eventually they'll burn out as they're resource deficient. It never really stopped being about the "cold war."
Well you shouldn't take CHINA as a threat, but when the dead reach 100's and 1,000's of elderly slaughtered at rail-road stations by CIA CHINESE-TALEBAN 'gone wild', then even CHINA might go full retard like the USA.
Well, according to Russian news gas consumption in EU surprisingly jumped in recent day from regular 438 mln. m3 to 478 mln m3 a day.
And wouldn't you be exploiting the unused pipeline capacity from Russia to fill local storage?
Anyone got info on that China announcement on March 24th or so? I'm guessing they are going to say they are dumping all US debt? Backing Russia on any western economic actions.
Check newswires and ZH, bets on China takes the islands in the South China Sea, anyday now. This is bad.
Yep. Me thinks once RUssia goes full in Ukraine, China will go for the contested islands at the same time.
Tack on Middle East shut getting stirred and we may just not be able to print ourselves to freedom.
100% a certainty.
If that happens Obama will need a second phoneline in his office.
Fuck that, he'll just send the Soviets and the Chinese Obamaphones.
F that...he will be too drunk to talk with all the 'beer summits' he will need to have.
Maybe he should move the capital to Colorado and get the good shit going....
Not sure what you mean by "Russia goes full in Ukraine,"* but, yes, the US can't possibly push back everywhere.
* Russia most certainly, IMO, maintain their relationships with Northern (and Eastern) Ukraine.
Sad to say, it's a wet dream for the neocons...
Yup... all those who think that a lost EU market will kill Russian energy exports are missing the fact that China will likely become the outlet. What a concept -eh? looking to do business with someone that can actually PAY for real reasources? EU is toast.
Ultimately, when talking about survivors, it comes down to who has the most resources. And as I've been saying for years now, only the US, Canada and Russia are more or less complete: total mileage dependent upon internal consumption, and while this would take political action to manage (one can debate whether That is possible), it's better than not having that option/capability at all.
The US is broke. The EU is broke AND resource poor.
Lol its winter too...roflmao
Yeah... winter has a way of defending Russia
Reminded me of this:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ey-dsvSFqtw
(must have been one hell of a huge towing bill! as someone who has managed to on several occassions get his tractor stuck I have an appreciation for what it takes to get extricated from sticky situations)
Let’s identify which side of the propaganda launched this claim. The 03:00 GMT ultimatum threat failed today. Then you have me posting gas lines to throttle down on Saturday. Cough, TAMAL, cough. Just thought the Brussels meeting would have a more chilling effect.
Anyhow, let’s confirm this first. Food for thought. Off to bed, goodnight.
All of these ultimatums and threats are psychological warfare... till it isn't.
Programming the masses to die for their masters...
I see bicycle companies having an excellent year in Europe and home gardens too. Supply chain is a mofo.
So is pedaling a female bike, wearing high heeled French men’s shoes the mojo rejoinder for financial systemic risk?. I digress & retire for evening .
/sarc
this is the indoesian's shining moment as an american traitor causing a useless jackass war to satisfy his ziocon puppet masters. and if war doesn't come, he and the cunt victoria nuland will go down as the most idiotic fools in recent us history. and if war does come, they will criminals against humanity.
and would someone get john kerry a new blow dryer???
"and would someone get john kerry a new blow dryer???"
Loved Kunstler's take on this (paraphrasing)- "a haricut looking for a brain"
It's just a continuation of despair that is coming to the NWO... (BIG = FAIL)
Print baby, Print!
The Queen is going to surrender and call it victory. Come on home, John, it's over.
That's it Putin. Obama wants to play hardball. Shut off the gas to Europe. Watch prices skyrocket and supply dwindle.
Shut off the oil as well.
The west didn't learn a thing from Napoleons defeat. Russians work best in cold. Europeans not so much.
Russian stock market opens up about 4-5%.
It's over! The Queen capitulated! Victory for Ukraine! Blah blah blah!
Again, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Keep in mind if Putin cuts the gas supply, he cuts his gas income, and that is Russias main export. Oligarcs may tap Putin on the shoulder if it actually takes pace.
Unless Russia, China, India, and the BRIC nations introduce a new currency and destroy all other currencies overnight. Possible I guess. For example one gallon of gas would require 1 Billion Euros.
If Oligarcs tap Putin on the shoulder too hard they may find themselves in prison on tax fraud charges.
It's always a mutual benefit. The oligarchs are fucked if the West/NATO/EU/NWO corrals Russia. They'll go along with Putin because they're working WITH him. EU represents 30% of the market, a BIG number for sure, but Russia could adjust, and, as I figure it's already doing, start migrating a chunk of this marketshare toward China.
Putin isn't in power to serve for only short-term profits... and, consider that ALL exporters are facing the conundrum of trying to maintain, let alone grow, their markets in a world in which the importing countries ability to pay is becoming more and more in doubt: if one looks past all this political shit one can see that this is only a harbenger of what's in store for the future, and that's that the perpetual-growth-on-a-finite-planet paradigm is rapidly approaching a brick wall. Grab a chair before the music stops...
what begins?
http://rt.com/news/russia-military-drill-putin-734/
President Putin has ordered troops sent last week to a surprise military exercise in western and central Russia to return to their bases.
Putin ordered the return after a Defense Ministry report, which said the exercises have been conducted successfully, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the media.
The surprise military drills in Russia’s central and western territorial commands were launchedlast Wednesday.
They involved 150,000 troops, 90 aircraft, 880 armor, 80 warships and other hardware.
On Monday the last phase of the drill was witnessed by Putin, who visited the Kirillovsk military range in Leningrad region in north-western Russia.
The finale was somewhat spoilt by a heavy snow storm, which made a planned deployment of airborne troops too risky.
The exercises, which came amid a political crisis in Ukraine, were taken as a sign of a possible massive military incursion by some Russia watchers in the West.
Such drills, however, are called on a regular basis in Russia, with the previous one conducted in July in the east of the country.
you've all been PUNK'D!
In chess you don't tell where you are moving.
LOL I am reminded of a story. Summer of '80, working in yosemite valley; playing chess with a coworker in our camp. T was from Louisiana. He'd been playing chess since he was 7, and had a 6 pack of beer every night since he was 16. My first introduction to Cajun style. The chess he played was 2 games in one; there was the strategic moves on the board, but... at the beginning of each move, the player first had to make the most outrageous verbal taunts they could think of, making up classic strategy names along the way, and by formula ending with assuring the opponent that he would be crushed, completely obliterated. These games actually drew an audience of other working stiffs, not seen in your regular chess.
"Ha! Your foolish venture into my domain ensure's your pawn's doom! The stage is set for a move I like to call, "The Whirling Butcher," ....
Wait until they find out that we've imposed economic sanctions against them and won't let them lend us any more money - then they'll get the picture.
Ha! It was only a flesh wound!
Oh goodie. Equity futures up, gold down. Just what makes pefect sense here. FU banksters!
Who cares? IOW they don't dare. IOW bring it on.
Europe could frack their way to independence in 30 days and where would that leave Putin?
"Europe could frack their way to independence in 30 days"
And you program? Which means that you have to have a sense of logic, of math... It's IMPOSSIBLE to be "independent" using a finite resource, unless that is, one were to specify the duration of "independence," which you did not.
Oh, no need to down-arrow you, enough folks already made That point.
seer, the miser who fears we are running out of resources, lol i must..seer we will run out when you run out of words to type, you do not understand, the universe is running down due to entropy, but the wait for it is kinda a little to long to get our pants in a wad about it...you are right but your time line is way off, by millions of years.
Russia is already naming the new Ukranian Nazi leaders. Seems many of them are...Billionaires that just happened to be tied to organized crime. Yes this is the freedom team the US government put together. They are even showing pictures of their mansions.
"Russia is already naming the new Ukranian Nazi leaders."
"Yes this is the freedom team the US government put together."
Could you clarify/reconcile? Are you saying that the Russians are responsible for the neo-Nazis there?
Europeans are going to sell out Ukrainians anyway, so take the decision out of their hands: Blow the pipelines.
I agree. It is not like Putin or the current Russian economy has anything to do with hydrocarbon extraction. Russia has no need for oil and gas they have a historical attachment to geography which makes their actions justified and correct. Putin can retain his power, a result of his popularity and love by every Russian speaking person and Earth. So blow the pipelines cause he has no need for them since everyone already loves him.
Forward Soviet.
I'm confidant the Ukrainians are reminding the EU that gas is their 'weapon' too. Transit fees willl exactly equal Russian price increases.
That's not the way it works.
But they may be hot, so be careful not to burn your lips.
Russians are famous for scorched earth policy now it's time for the Ukies to pay the trump card, cold winters for EU and no revs for Gazprom for years.
I didn't think was so easy to make economists look more intelligent than one's self.
Perhaps you should first quantify the % of Russian O&G exports to Europe, as well as the % of total Russian O&G exports that would be shut in by a complete closure of Ukrainian pipelines, as well the resultant % change in price for those exports, before making such an assertion.
one of Russia largest oil refinery
just blew up and is burning ....
Europe is a failing market. That's what it's all about, a death-thrashing.
There needs to be some recognition that Europe has to cut back on energy consumption anyway: they're broke. And Russia needs to find a new market: a shift toward China most likely. Regardless of the posturing, or even of any blood-letting, these are the realities that WILL be faced.
BTW, if Putin has recalled the Russian military forces, what happens to Ukrainian "defectors" like the naval officers? Looks like they're about to move to Russia.
It Begins (Monday): Gazprom Warns European Gas "Supply Disruptions" Possible
It Ends (Tuesday): Europe caves.
Half of Russia's income comes from Europe, Russia will not bite the hand that feeds them.
Europe could go full nuclear-energy if Russia puts too much pressure on Europe.
Ten years from now, if they move a record speed...
There are also issues of raw materials sourcing and reprocessing capacity, and sending the European Greens to gas chambers first, among others.
I had to laugh when I read Putin was in Bulgaria recently warning the Bulgarians over the dangers of fracking' He spoke of black stuff coming out of people's water taps. Putin the 'green'. Of course what he is really concerned about is shale gas in Eastern Europe most particularly from Ukraine where Chevron and some other oil majors are looking as Polish shale geology seems more vexing.
Stupid Frack-heads!
Viel Feind viel Ehr!
Look it up pussies.
Good night.
Almost OT:
What a shame, even Reuters has stooped to hiring PhD Economists, as Cartoonists!:
via http://live.reuters.com/Event/World_News
we get - https://twitter.com/MeredithFrost/status/440657220624478208/photo/1
THE G10, or G9+1, or ...well certainly NOT any letter and "8", unless an econoshmuck is in charge of counting them!
[That's my last unappreciated PSA for the day, good night all.]
Europeans have complained about the lack of any 'stimulus' programs to jump start their moribund economies. Not that I am a big believer in 'stimulus programs there comes a time when you have to move fast and hard.Tha time is now. Either they get with a crash program of building LNG terminals, ships and fracking, they are looking at a very cold winter next year.
They're fucking BROKE, that's whay they're NOT going on any LNG building spree.
Further, it's only a matter of time before LNG would become un-obtainable/un-affordable.
I'm sure they'll do stupid Frack-head shit, but, again, it's all ignoring the realities of the death of growth, and their system is predicated on growth (as is the case for everyone).
This comment comes as close to defining the situation as any I have read up until now. Europe likes Putin's gas because it's cheap. Putin doesn't want the price going too high because then the eurotards will look at piping supplies through turkey and then ship it across the med or across the atlantic or whatever. The maggots don't want to invest in new infrastructure, they want to run the world and tell everyone else what to do on the cheap while they get their billion dollar stock options and fuck things up big time. This isn't about Pootin, and it isn't about Owebomba, it is about the maggot sucubus fuckers at the top wanting it all for themselves while screwing it up for everyone else for the simple reason that they want to be in chanrge because otherwise their lives have no meaning.
#BreakingNews #Russia's #Putin to hold first press conference since the start of the #Ukraine Crisis at 9.30am EST
Shall be interesting.
http://englishrussia.com/2014/03/03/largest-oil-refinery-in-europe-is-on...
“Neftekamskneftehim” is the largest in Europe oil refinery. It is located in Tatarstan, Russia and today at 7.00pm Moscow Time tens of firemen were urgently summoned as the oil giant got on fire. More photos and videos inside.
Nice timing...
Fire in Tatarstan, Tatars in Crimea holding loyal to Ukraine,bad memories of Russian/Stalin abuse. Ukies must have realized they were high on Vlads hit list, wouldn't it be sweet if they planted sleeper cells to sabotage Russia. That would wipe the smile off Vlads face (if he's ever smiled!)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/us-ukraine-crisis-tatars-idUSB...
Oh, no! "sleeper cells in Russia?" Where the fuck have you been? DId you miss all the fuss about Al Qaeda?
This was all instigated by the US/West. Hell, it's been in the play book for a long time now.
"Tatars in Crimea holding loyal to Ukraine,bad memories of Russian/Stalin abuse."
Fine, let's see them jump in (the cold) bed with the EU.
Align with resources or be prepared to live a LOT more conservatively. Not taking sides for which is best (up to each individual), just that this IS what it comes down to.
I'm sure our heroic French Allies, fresh from their victorious bombing of housewives in Libya, will never surrender.
Nothing like a good war to distract the citizens from the fact that they're being fucked...
Western Europe needs the Russian gas more desperately than Russia, sitting on more than US$ 500 billion FX reserves, needs the export revenues. The Western investors in Russia's stock markets can pull out all their investments and Russia can still defend the Rouble. The markets will crash, but that is not likely to have any serious impact on Russian economy since most Russians don't play the stock market game. The paper value of the wealth of the oligarchs will come down, but they too know it is only temporary and may even appreciate the opportunity to buy some more shares at bargain prices.
Since Vladimir Vladimirovich knows he holds all the cards and the West none, it is advantage Russia all the way. He may stop at controlling Crimea or move troops into Eastern Ukraine as well. Of course, he wouldn't want to shed any Russian or Ukrainian blood while doing so and will only grab what he can without doing so.
You're probably correct here. Their export market will shift toward China, who, I've heard, would have actual real money (gold) to back up payment.
Not sure, however, that no blood will be spilled (eventually). The port IS important.
I bet the EU / US are kicking themselves at not being able to invade Syria effectively to allow a pipeline of gas from Qatar to run through Syria and into Turkey in order to supply the EU! Wasnt it Putin that outstaged the US in this deal by getting the Syrian Government / Opposition to give up the chemical weapons which effectively got rid of the propaganda machine generated in the west as to the chemical attack reasoning behind the imminent attack?
This coup by the West to get a regime change in Ukraine no doubt kicked off at the same time as the intention of invading Syria in the 4th quarter last year
In the absence of any significant LGN supply from Qatar to Europe, i dont see how the US and the West did not see that this tactic was going to be played by Russia?
China have been very quiet about this whole scenario, but i can imagine Putin whispering in their ears for contingency plans.
Everyone can see this unfolding, but how far is this actually going to go? The citizens of the US and the UK do not have any appetite for war (unless some tragic red flag happens that creates the emotion) maybe the plan by these two nations is to support a war (this is profitable) rather than be directly involved.
No doubt this is the Western Hedgemony to the Eastern side of the world, The continued attempt to slowly get a one world government owned by the elite.
China had been quiet until the CIA chinese-taleban slaughter last saturday night in Kunming, that was a wake-up call for Chinese PLA MIL elite thinkers.
They formally today announced a joint show of force with Russia, if the USA doesn't back down, then the USA will have to take on Russia and China at the same time.
You have to wonder how fucking stupid the CIA is to have allowed their boys to go into Kunming and slaughter so many. Dead don't tell tales, but survivors sung like canary's and all path's to the slaugher led back to CIA financing.
Chinese hard-core are now pissed as fucking shit at the USA, expect COLD WAR to go HOT very soon, and war to have two fronts. Anybody want to bet Taiwan in the East, and Ukraine/Syria in the West?
**
China has an interest in the long-term stability of Ukraine. In particular, Beijing has incentives to prevent a chaotic situation that would undermine its economic and strategic relations with Kiev. China is Ukraine’s second-largest trading partner after Russia, with total trade in 2013 valued at $7.3 billion. China also has major stakes in Ukraine’s agricultural sector, with a September deal reportedly granting a PRC state-owned enterprise access to up to five percent of Ukraine’s arable land.
China’s relations with Ukraine deepened in December with a “strategic partnership” signed by Xi and then president Viktor Yanukovych. This agreement involved a five-year, $30 billion plan to boost PRC investment in areas including infrastructure, aviation and aerospace, energy, agriculture, and finance. As part of this, China extended “security guarantees” to Ukraine. Despite Yanukovych’s departure, China’s MFA last week reaffirmed that the strategic partnership and its provisions were still in effect.
Actually, you have to wonder how fucking stupid you are for writing that drivel.
Well, since you are clearly such a student of history and Han-Moslem relations, perhaps you can also elucidate on the US' involvement in the death of Ali and the now fourteen hundred year battle between the Shi'a and Sunni sets of Islam, since no doubt the US is responsible for that, too.
Putz.
None of this is new. Ukraine has been a target by the West for a long time.
It's like the spoiled brat once again trying to kick down a door because he's pissed (and once again not being able to).
Food Stamp aka Peace Prize is busy preparing for mid-term elections. Once he's finished with year 6 of his perpetual campaign (and Recovery Summer 6, sponsored by Gay Pride) he'll get right on this Ukraine thing.
Royal Navy: "rum, sodomy, and the lash.
Bath House Navy: Sodomy.
RUSSIA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PAY BACK CREDITS TO US BANKS BY IF USA INTRODUCES SANCTIONS - GLAZYEV
PUTIN AIDE GLAZYEV SAYS RUSSIA WON'T PAY BACK US DOLLAR DENOMINATED DEBT IF SANCTION IMPOSED
LOL...
RUSSIAN STATE TV SAYS PUTIN TO MAKE STATEMENT ON UKRAINE AT 8:30 GMT
*NORTH KOREA FIRED 3 MISSILES THIS MORNING: YONHAP NEWS
And nobody cares... which might force them to do a very stupid thing...
While China...
http://nosint.blogspot.ca/2014/03/china-conducts-full-scale-island.html?...
China conducts full-scale island assault exercise with massive amphibious vesselsJESUS FUCKING CHRIST!!!!!!! The US just broke the freaking TREATY WITH RUSSIA!!!!!!!!!
Middle East News ‏@MiddleEast_BRK 23 sec
#BreakingNews the US naval striking group George H. W. Bush leads 20 warships and submarines into the Black Sea.
IS BARRY FUCKING NUTS??????????????????????????????
RUSSIA TO NOTIFY UN IF IT DECIDES TO SEND TROOPS TO UKRAINE -- INTERFAX CITING NEWSPAPER
North Korea test fired 7 short-range missiles this morning -- Yonhap
#BreakingNews the US naval striking group George H. W. Bush leads 20 warships and submarines into the Black Sea.
Apparently that news was from a BS source... so it's BS... and will stay so forever. Hopefully.
IF that actually happened, Russian Forces would go on high alert.
If the USG is that stupid, the sailors should take over the ships, led by their own COs and refuse any orders from the Bath House Gang.
Retracted.
In real news...
USS GEORGE H BUSH CARRIER STRIKE GROUP ANCHORS IN FALIRO, GREECE -- SKAI TV
Putin aide Glazyev quoted: "U.S sanctions on Russia would lead to crash of U.S financial system"
Lulz? They don't need your help, they already got Yellen and Geithner!
Is something big about to happen?! Today #IAF has a very extensive activity over north #Israel.. Very extensive.. #Lebanon #Syria #Hezbollah
Russia is still building up forces...
Two Russian warships passed through the Bosphorus Strait of Turkey en route to a Black Sea on Tuesday after Russia summoned the two warships over crisis between Kiev and Moscow, private Dogan news agency reported.
The 150 'Saratov' landing ship and the 156 'Yamal' assault ship crossed the strait around 07:30 local time (0530 GMT), the agency reported.
You aren't thinking that "Barry" is going to go against the wishes of his handlers, are you?
Ironic, isn't it, the name of the naval group is of the man who proclaimed that there was to be a "new world order." And so ends the tale of the mythical "NWO"... (years and years I've been saying that there was ZERO chance of any NWO taking over- BIG = FAIL)
REQUIRED READING FOR ALL:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/03/the-silence-of-the-anti-defamation...
Big mistake, dirt cheap fracking gas from usa including natgas tanker fleet and terminals is waiting for a willing buyer.
Did you BTFD? Bloomberg says WWIII is over. Everybody getting along. Its on like Donkey Kong. Stocks up 1% across the board. Gold down.
have a good night
tuesday could be ugly..
large refinery in russia
explodes and is burning
If Putin finds Bandar's fingerprints on this one then watch this be the end of the Saudi Royal family's rule... oil is (and always was) set to become a lot more scarce...
"This peaceful pact will involve the western world until China and Russia become involved with world matters.
They will pose a threat to the ‘Beast with the Ten Horns’, Europe, and will overcome them to introduce communism."
http://www.thewarningsecondcoming.com/second-seal-world-war-3/
"Europe will be his first target and then the United States of America.
Communism will be introduced and woe to those who oppose the reign of the Red Dragon."
http://www.thewarningsecondcoming.com/god-the-father-europe-will-be-firs...
Ukraine crisis: Russians fire warning shots in Crimea as Kerry flies in Russian soldiers guarding airbase threaten unarmed Ukrainian troops as US secretary of state heads to Kiev for crisis talks
'A Kremlin aide said on Tuesday that if the US were to impose sanctions, Moscow could be forced to drop the dollar as a reserve currency and refuse to pay off any loans to American banks.
Sergei Glazyev, an adviser to the Kremlin – often used by the authorities to stake out a hardline stance but does not make policy – added that if Washington froze the accounts of Russian businesses and individuals, Moscow would recommend that all holders of US treasuries sell them.'
Via the Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/04/ukraine-crisis-russian-troo...
"and... it's gone!"
In coordinated news:
Stock markets rally as Putin ends some military exercises - business live 'News that Kremlin has ordered troops on military exercises in areas close to Ukraine back to base suggsts tensions in the region may be easing'
http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/2014/mar/04/stock-markets-rally...
Will you look at those futures! To the moon! Bullish!
http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20140303/188053100/Russia-Conducts-Live-F...
Russia Conducts Live Fire Exercises in Baltic
Russian naval warships and coastal troops conducted live fire exercises Monday in the country’s western Kaliningrad and Leningrad Regions, a Ministry of Defense spokesperson said.
The exercises, part of a combat readiness test ordered by President Vladimir Putin last week, come amid a growing international crisis as evidence mounts that Russian troops have been deployed across Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.
Why say this out of the blue if they aren't planning something???
http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/top-news/world-news/362876323?cl...
China says military will respond to provocationsA Chinese spokeswoman says the country's military is prepared to respond to all provocations, ahead of the expected announcement of another big bump in defense spending.
Legislative spokeswoman Fu Ying said Tuesday that China supports resolving disputes through negotiations and the 2.3 million-member People's Liberation Army is for defensive purposes. However, Fu said the military was ready to make an "effective response" to protect the country's sovereignty and maintain regional security.
With the US preoccupied it gives China more volume in its shout-down with Japan.
The old-guard is falling and the new one rising...
CIA-Chinese taleban Killing was a CIA message to CHINA to keep out of the USA/Russian Ukraine war, CIA Bin-Laden Chinese Taleban kill 50 wound 200 in Kunming. A wake-up call to the PLA thinkers.
The PLA say's otherwise, ... Ukraine is strategic to CHINA & RUSSIA
Indeed, the importance of Ukraine to Russia has not been lost on Chinese observers. For instance, Wang Haiyun, a senior advisor with a PLA-affiliated think tank, remarked that Ukraine is a “core interest” for Russia, and asserted that China should strengthen consultations with Russia on the matter.
Second, China has an interest in the long-term stability of Ukraine. In particular, Beijing has incentives to prevent a chaotic situation that would undermine its economic and strategic relations with Kiev. China is Ukraine’s second-largest trading partner after Russia, with total trade in 2013 valued at $7.3 billion. China also has major stakes in Ukraine’s agricultural sector, with a September deal reportedly granting a PRC state-owned enterprise access to up to five percent of Ukraine’s arable land.
In addition, China’s relations with Ukraine deepened in December with a “strategic partnership” signed by Xi and then president Viktor Yanukovych. This agreement involved a five-year, $30 billion plan to boost PRC investment in areas including infrastructure, aviation and aerospace, energy, agriculture, and finance. As part of this, China extended “security guarantees” to Ukraine. Despite Yanukovych’s departure, China’s MFA last week reaffirmed that the strategic partnership and its provisions were still in effect.
Third, China has a broader interest in defending the norm of non-interference in states’ internal affairs. Although China has adopted a more flexible interpretation of this norm in recent years, Beijing is likely reluctant to condone external military intervention in Ukraine without UN Security Council approval. The reason is that Beijing fears that any erosion of the norm could have potential implications for outside meddling in China’s own claimed territories, including Tibet and Taiwan.
The fundamentals have China being more dependent on Russia (energy).
"China is Ukraine’s second-largest trading partner after Russia"
If one were just scan-reading one might come away thinking that Ukraine is important in China's export market. Western bias operating here?
"Beijing is likely reluctant to condone external military intervention in Ukraine without UN Security Council approval."
Um, they can abstain from voting, can't they? (refer to my opening sentence for an understanding of why they might take this route)
Actualy, all China and Russia need to do is tell Backdoor Barry they will quit using USD and sell off a lot of UST notes.
Now, if Bath House really wants to crash the USD as he is reportedly said, this would be a good excuse.
Who knows?
What I DO know is whatever The Queen does, it will be bad for the US.
Well Russia & China are major holders of US-DEBT, and it takes time to unload the garbage, sort of like unloading BITCOIN before it goes to zero.
*
The CIA just accelerated the COLD-WAR to FULL HOT, you have to ask, why NOW, ... why such a hurry?
There is obviously a sense of panic in the NSA/CIA world, me thinks that like always the ASSETS are now out of control, TALEBAN are 20 bases all over ASIA created by BIN-LADEN with CIA money. They are all going off reservation, of course of NSA wanted they could have droned them all, but they didnt', thus like a 'manchurian candidate', ... now the fire has been lit.
WTF are you going to do when "Barry" is gone?
Every fucking chance you get you're droning on about homo and (clearly) Party Pussy shit. You've got issues...
The US plays golf. The Russians play chess. With golf you almost never get a hole in one. Getting close is good enough. With chess you plan ahead, anticipate your opponents next move, and then win a precise victory.
So, communism was a strategic move?
Yeah, thinking does help, but it really comes down to PHYSICAL, to resources.
If the Russian operate under the premise of perpetual growth on a finite planet (which I do believe is the case) then they too will eventually lose the "game."
Time for you to learn a little history.
Oh, please enlighten me...
Russian peasants and workers of the early 1900s were not chess players. They were the pawns. The leaders of the Communist revolution were chess players. The results of a communist revolution are not the causes. You have serious logic deficiencies.