This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

These Countries Are At Risk If The West Sanctions Russia, BofA Warns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While most attention has been focused on Nat Gas, BofA notes that Russia is unlikely to unilaterally curtail its oil exports. However, Russian oil does indeed flow in large quantities through the Black Sea, making the Russian Navy station of Sevastopol as well as the whole Crimean peninsula crucial strongholds to control commerce flows. While BofA remains confident that oil-related sanctions are unlikely (as Europe cannot really afford to relapse into a third recession in six years), Brent prices could easily jump $10 on any disruption increasing the risk of recession for a number of weak economies.

 

Via BofA,

As for oil, we see temporary modest upside pressure...

As for oil, the Ukraine consumes about 300 thousand b/d, of which 220 thousand b/d comes from Russia and 80 thousand b/d is produced domestically. Unlike in the case of gas, however, the Ukraine does not have significant shale oil resources and does not pose a competitive threat to Russian dominance.

Moreover, transit volumes of Russian oil circulating through the Ukraine are rather minor, with the latest Transneft figures estimating normal flows of 300 thousand b/d through the Druzhba pipeline. However, Russian oil does indeed flow in large quantities through the Black Sea, making the Russian Navy station of Sevastopol as well as the whole Crimean peninsula crucial strongholds to control both Azov and Black Sea commerce flows.

These routes are, for now, secure and diverse. Thus, while oil has risen in sympathy with other commodities, we believe the upside risks are rather modest from here unless the conflict escalates.

...unless Western powers get involved, which is unlikely

Moreover, we believe Russia is extremely unlikely to disrupt oil exports to the world, as it would destroy its reputation as a reliable and non-cartelized supplier to the world's largest energy market. Also, oil-related sanctions against Russia are unlikely to happen, as we believe Europe cannot really afford to relapse into a third recession in six years. As nothing meaningful in terms of sanctions came on the back of Russia's conflict in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008, it is also unlikely that anything would happen now, in our view.

If the conflict in the Ukraine turned into a full-blown war and the 1 million b/d of Russian oil flowing through the Black Sea are temporarily disrupted, oil may briefly jump by $10/bbl or more.

With EM currencies weakening by the minute, however, a spike in Brent crude oil prices above $125/bbl would likely increase the risks of recession for a number of weak economies. Consequently, we believe prices would probably reverse back down rather quickly.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 03/04/2014 - 20:58 | 4509925 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Someone actually thinks mommy jeans will sanction another communist?

 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:03 | 4509940 Sashko89
Sashko89's picture

yes, because hes fascist..

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:17 | 4509956 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Both, in my opinion are fascists.

///////////

A few dispute?

Well then, commie or fascist, lets rumble ;-)

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:23 | 4509989 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

My theory? It's Satoshi628263839. He goes on diatribes and rants, works himself into a frenzy of anger at the world and then begins to downvote everyone and does so via his 4-9 different accounts.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 22:37 | 4510228 strannick
strannick's picture

So the west sanctions Russian vodka, but then Russian crude jumps 10%? Genius.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 22:57 | 4510296 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

You are right about that. Satoshi 101, 401, 123, NotaRealamerican, and now Zionhead 101. I count 5 accounts so far. Very tedious.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 23:04 | 4510312 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

IMO, he wouldn't waste his time down voting or upvoting for that matter. I do not see him as angry either, but as a prophet trying to wake up the USA:)

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 23:39 | 4510412 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

He has stated many things that have merit, but he gets a little crazy like the dudes with the "end is nigh" signs.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 07:23 | 4511002 madtechnician
madtechnician's picture

Shatoshit101 is full of absolute bullshit. One week he says he's a Chinese computer scientist the next week he says he's a Jew who hates Zionism. I think the guy has forgotten to take his meds , or they are a group of shills working out of china. Whoever they are , they need help.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:25 | 4509994 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Funny they left the USA off the list. Because if the Russians liquidate $200 billion in US Government bonds in one day and shift the rouble to a currency based on a mixed basket of commodities like oil and gold along with other currencies like the CHF and JPY, then we'll hurt. All it takes is one nation openly announcing a short term (1-2 day) liquidation of USTs then other nations may panic sell also, including China.

It would be impossible for the Fed to absorb $100 billion much less $200 billion in UST's in a short period of time without causing a crash in the bond market. And for those who think stock market crashes are bad, you ain't seen nothing yet if bonds were to move causing interest rates to rise above the 3, 4, or 5% level in just one day.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:47 | 4510063 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

It amazes me how close those assholes come to fucking over the entire world over their petty statist disagreements. They literally have no idea what they are doing and there are a lot of them. Surrounded by infatile minds in adult bodies. 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 23:17 | 4510349 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Actually what is scary is that they THINK they know EXACTLY what they are doing. This is "Masters of Chaos" theory "in practice."

In other words...one does not send "nameless, faceless thugs" to "relieve" a base Commander.

That man is a General for a reason...and he has three hundred men under his command. YOU are his enemy if you do not show him the proper courtesy and respect.

In short "he must be relieved of his Command."

As well...in Diplomacy...there are PROTOCOLS. We do not just respect the Rights of Revolutionaries...but we respect the Rights of ALL the people.

This is not done as an act of charity but at a minimum to ensure comity and thus promote...if not create...dialogue.

Let me be blunt...ABRAHAM LINCOLN WAS A FAILURE.
The irony that "all the commanding officers on both sides showed proper courtesy towards one another" should not be lost on ANYONE.

The "French Head of Europe" will show up in Kiev Thursday...mark my words...he does not know what he's gonna say until he gets there.

Once he is done..."saying"...that will be that.
Obviously a total cut off of Russian oil to global markets will have a dramatic and profound effect. But nothing like the movement of French Forces to defend "Independence Square."

That says to me "the dollar and treasuries."
Everything else is purely speculative at this point.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 22:04 | 4510119 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The whole post is crazy. In case of a full blown war oil goes up $10 for a short time? LOL, in case of a FULL BLOWN war it will be 0 or infinity. They are laying out scenarios for taking out the western financial system, what if it's not a bluff? If there is a full blown war the safest place to be is right next to Obama. The last thing Putin would want is for the weak hand to leave the power seat.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 22:56 | 4510294 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"The last thing Putin would want is for the weak hand to leave the power seat."

The circle gets the square ;-)

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:06 | 4510610 Element
Element's picture

Obama's weak-hand = Overconfidence

Actually believes he can threaten Russia with a renewed 20-year long collapse and recovery and get away with it, no devastating blowback.

Oh, actually, that's what you were saying ... leave the idiot in there and he'll bring it all down anyway.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 02:06 | 4510720 zionhead101
zionhead101's picture

Obama is Kagan's Cock-Puppet and you know.

Better would be look at HILLARY, LURCH, or McCAIN as front men running the show.

Obama is a mixture of Dan Quayle and GW-BUSH-2.

Obama  is just trying to make it through this term alive, ... and nothing more, ... but he's no more descision maker than he was the day that he was first corn-holed in Chicago some 25+ years ago by Rev Wright, another Christo-ZIO cult, but for blacks.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 02:02 | 4510712 zionhead101
zionhead101's picture

Except that all rationality is gone, there are no good guys anymore and the USA has quit even trying to play games. That's why you have UKRAINE being stolen in PUBLIC, and NULAND appointed 'family' to be president, all with public eye's, because if anybody even said the 'tribe' word they would lose their pension and freedom.

The end of history is here, and the ERA of Trillionaires is here and the new trillionaires can buy country's, and army's.

Where will it lead us?

But toss out all your yesterday rhetoric 'deadfred', its all about who is rational, and will they survive? At this point the CHINESE/RUSSIAN's are looking rational, but will they survive?

All is held together by anger and hostility, the 'break-point' even in the USA has long come and past.

The last thing that PUTIN would want it to risk losing GAZPROM, that said his enemy is a RAPID-DOG.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:26 | 4510000 surf0766
surf0766's picture

The label doesn't matter. No matter what they are called, each group wishes to control us in every aspect of our lives. Why fight over a label. NWO=COMMUNIST=SOCIALIST=PROGRESSIVES... and on and on.

 

 

 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:29 | 4510005 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

No shit. They're evil. Period.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 04:07 | 4510854 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

NO, to be socialist requires the people own the means of production. Requires.

That's not happening.

Not sure "progressives" can get their heads out of their asses long enough to spit out a formal definition of what they are or are not so I'll withhold a definition yet of my own for them.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:36 | 4510026 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

They are Theives.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 05:52 | 4510930 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Communist...fascist? Different cheeks, same arse.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:06 | 4509953 Boomberg
Boomberg's picture

Embarassing to even think that a nation with the economic and military resources the size of Russia can be sanctioned like Iraq, N. Korea, Iran, or Cuba, much less actually state it out loud. What an utter disgrace. 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:11 | 4509964 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Wait till they dump US bonds and are sitting on a pile of US dollars they cant spend and no one wants any way. 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:19 | 4509983 zionhead101
zionhead101's picture

This is why the Chess players ( CHINESE/RUSSIAN ) just smile in public, and give OBAMA a "MEA-CULPA" in public to save face,

But BEHIND The SCENES "BUY GOLD BITCHES", BUY as MUCH as you can, and get rid of USA assets.

Problem of course for RUSSIA/CHINA, its no much how  fast you can BUY GOLD electronically, its how fast you can have it shipped to CHINA/RUSSIA and get physical possession. That is the limiting factor.

For now SMILE IN PUBLIC, and BUY GOLD.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 23:06 | 4510320 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You're just deluding yourself and talking your book.

No cash register no the planet is ever going to have a chemical test kit for gold built in and will never take gold in return for actual things of value, like calories.  That's just the way it is.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 00:05 | 4510475 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

CrashisOptimistic

I find a lot of what you write is compelling, yet I buy & hold gold (it's hard for a condo-dweller to hold oil or similar).  But, I have not heard how you are preparing for what you think is going to happen (less energy / less food / less everything).

What are you doing to prepare?  (Not being smarmy and I don't ask for secret or personal infomation)

 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 04:05 | 4510853 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Every cash register in every pawn shop & every moneymart already has 'em.

It's only a matter of stores like that to migrate into other stores, like having the Winerack inside of Loblaws.

Done 'n one.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 08:02 | 4511039 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

The Liquor Store next door to me takes Gold Jewelry and Silver for Liquor. He is Chaldean. He rips his alcoholic customers for it.

 

He does not even have a Test Kit.

 

CrashIsOptimistic's post is laughable as it seems that he is not in the Real World.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 05:26 | 4510915 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

- Can we impose sanctions on Russia to punish evil godless commies for what they've done to Ukraine?

- Yes We Can!

It would be laughable if it wasn't so sad. Next in line is Russia's blowback in terms of limiting opportunities for American companies, bye bye McDonalds. I bet Germans and to a great extent Chinese who seem to be more pragmatic already factored in future profits from increased market share in Russia. Not that US companies play any significant part in the Russian economy anyway.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 08:57 | 4511108 Spumoni
Spumoni's picture

Ukraine can pay the debt back with all the marijuana they grow - just sell it to Colorado. THAT's what this is really all about!

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:12 | 4509966 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Troll alert. -1's popping up everywhere. 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 08:13 | 4511053 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Do you really believe that I give a flat flying fuck about approval? 

I am not here for validation.

I am neither a part of the collective nor do I intend to be.

 

I will give myself a -1 for starters.

 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:18 | 4509982 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I'm only here to be downvoted.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 22:13 | 4510151 W74
W74's picture

Must be doing something right.

My guess is there aren't enough Hasbara to go around to give more than onzies and twozies.

Their ranks must be spread fairly thin, trying to rally against truth and free type on the internet.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:26 | 4509997 besnook
besnook's picture

russia wouldn't be so mean as to freeze euroland for the remainder of winter but they may just raise prices enough to give the euro punks some russian style austerity.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:46 | 4510057 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The Ukraine is a large food producer.  If Russia cuts off nat gas Ukraine can cut off food exports.  I'm sure thae average Russian would not like to see food prices skyrocket.

 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 04:03 | 4510852 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Ukraine + Russia + food.

I'm mystified as to what will happen.

Good thing this time is different so I don't need to check up on what history has to say on the subject.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 21:48 | 4510066 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

So WTI, after the big declaration that all was well today, is at $103+.

 

If it was $92, the exclamations would be that this is an $11 drop and will goose GDP 8% higher.  But because it went from $92 (which somehow the world has decided is a benign price, when 10 years ago it was $30) to $103 we hear NOTHING.

What we have is a GS projection of Q1 GDP at 1.7%.  That's after June's redefinition that adds 0.6% to it.  And that's probably before the rise from 92 to 103. 

Not a WORD do we hear about this.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 22:03 | 4510116 walküre
walküre's picture

Correction.

By non official standards the weak economies are already in recession.

Major increase in price of Brent would take them over the edge into a painful Depression (capital D).

Subsequently the people in these countries would switch a gear higher from protesting, marching and revolting into civil unrest with bloody consequences for the local elite.

Central banks, IMF and Worldbank do not like instability as the risk of losing all their debt serfs is far greater than cutting debt and lowering commodity prices via deflation.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 22:39 | 4510243 GoldenDonuts
GoldenDonuts's picture

Europe is out of a recession?  So 50% youth unemployment over the majority of that continent is a functioning economy? 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 00:52 | 4510588 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

An 'american' well functioning economy.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 03:58 | 4510847 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I was blobbing up tears in your long departuring. Welcoming 'back'

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 23:15 | 4510342 smartsun
smartsun's picture

Look back at the history, all the facism leader came from your so-called democratic country... LOL... 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 00:56 | 4510594 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

well, clearly not all of them.

and the fuckery that is about to happen in the western ukraine is not the making of Americans  {err, except in the past few years, or, since 1994 or so...

 

http://www.bollyn.com/#article_14573

 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:28 | 4510628 zionhead101
zionhead101's picture

Sen. John McCain, the leading supporter of the Zionist war agenda in the U.S. Congress, talks to Arseniy Yatsenyuk (left), the new provisional prime minister, who happens to be Jewish, and Oleh Tyahnybok (center) of the "neo-Nazi" Svoboda party, in the Ukraine in December 2013.  Isn't it odd that a Ukranian Jew and a neo-Nazi should be working so closely together?

*

One thing I never get a reply here on ZH ( AIPAC MSM NEWS ) is this Bitcoin mining and the UKRAINE. Some 80% of bitcoin mining was controlled by one man in the Urkaine ( dual citizen ).

I have always assumed that  first they tried to BUY Ukraine, and now of course steal it, ...

Certainly McCain see's his spawn sitting in the thrown of power.

WRT BTC look at the major Fraud's black-market was SHREM, but they blamed silk-road, bitcoin mining was Karpelese aka MT-Gox, again all dual citizens.

*

Lastly, today FACEBOOK (dual citizen) bought one of the world largest "DRONE" companys.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:00 | 4510602 UselessEater
UselessEater's picture

facism, communism, NWO..... I'm running out of continents to find away to escape the lot; 3 down, trying another and it looks like the fry pan.

really sick of this

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:09 | 4510619 Element
Element's picture

Stay away from Antarctica, ya get stuck in the summer blizzards and icepack growth.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:51 | 4510618 zionhead101
zionhead101's picture

JC so tell us what to they want?

Other than Roman Hegemony, ...

Your author is spot on, why doesn't ZH post this article, its informative and thought provoking without mentioning the J- or Z- words.

*

IMHO they want what they have always wanted to perpetuate their legacy through their children. Today 'BUSH' won an election, and soon so will Chelsea. It's all  about HEGEMONIC control of the world and passing that legacy to your children.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:37 | 4510662 zionhead101
zionhead101's picture

Every neo-con wants the same thing...

1.) A cushy condo on the tel-aviv beach to retire

2.) A cushy +$500k/year retirement package

3.) Their children, get the same MOSSAD package as them.

*

I have seen the pattern since the 1960's in the State's, when most the Zio- Politicians I know, when they have retired its straight to Tel-Aviv to 'retire' in splendor.

To work politics in america, is as much fun as working in the USA during the times when EUROPE ruled the world, working the colony's was one's duty, then pack to the royal life.

Today its the same old story the USA is a plantation colony that has a money tree and unlimited mercenary army. The Zion's put in their time in the colony and many get rich and return to a life of splendor.

Make no mistake all Zio's look down on the colony.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:39 | 4513008 whidbey-2
whidbey-2's picture

Your rambling is insulting to the intel community.  Staying invisible until one dies is required, anything else will expose you to "questioning" about your work, your contacts, its value, your superiors and your training and languages.  People like you do no one any good.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:07 | 4510613 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

A little history that today's politicians could learn something from...

 

"When Red Army tank divisions crushed the Hungarian freedom fighters in 1956, killing 50,000, Eisenhower did not lift a finger. When Khrushchev built the Berlin Wall, JFK went to Berlin and gave a speech.

When Warsaw Pact troops crushed the Prague Spring in 1968, LBJ did nothing. When, Moscow ordered Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski to smash Solidarity, Ronald Reagan refused to put Warsaw in default.

What is the U.S. vital interest in Crimea? Zero."

 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:29 | 4510642 Element
Element's picture

And don't forget this massive slaughter, which was actually supported and sponsored by the US. About a million people purged in Indonesia in 1965-66.

"In the first 20 years following the killings, thirty-nine serious estimates of the death toll were attempted.[38] Before the killings had finished, the army estimated 78,500 had died[48] while another early estimate by the traumatised Communists put the figure at 2 million.[38] The army later estimated the number killed at a possibly exaggerated 1 million.[33] In 1966, Benedict Anderson estimated the deaths at 200,000 and by 1985 had offered a range of 500,000 to 1 million.[38] Most scholars agree that at least half a million were killed,[49] more than in any other event in Indonesian history.[30] An armed forces security command estimate from December 1976 put the number at between 450,000 and 500,000.[29] A 2012 documentary by Joshua Oppenheimer, The Act of Killing, places the number of deaths between 1 and 3 million people.[50][51]"

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_killings_of_1965%E2%80%9366

It makes the Soviet's in eastern Europe look like pikers, and probably far larger slaughter than Rwanda.

See also:

CIA Activities in Indonesia:

Anti-communist purge Main article: Indonesian killings of 1965-1966#Foreign involvement and reaction

Bradley Simpson, Director of the Indonesia/East Timor Documentation Project at the National Security Archive claims that "the United States was directly involved to the extent that they provided the Indonesian Armed Forces with assistance that they introduced to help facilitate the mass killings.[3][4] However, H.W. Brands wrote that the Johnson administration expressly refused to supply weapons for the mass killing of Indonesian communists.[5] There is no evidence that the United States significantly increased the scale of the killings.[6]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Indonesia

 

And no evidence the US discouraged, condemned  or forbade them either!

 

nudge-nudge, wink-wink ... say no more!

 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 02:33 | 4510753 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Hmmm ... 1965-66? ... Now, which American CIA families were active as operatives in Indonesia at that time? One name comes to mind: Stanley Ann Dunham took her son to Indonesia in 1966.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:56 | 4510700 zionhead101
zionhead101's picture

Karzai since 1991 with CIA assistance and CIA MONEY has killed over 300,000 Afghan's, and what did get? The CIA made him President for life.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 01:38 | 4510664 zionhead101
zionhead101's picture
Israel Buy's DRONE ARMY with FACEBOOK MONEY Facebook in talks to buy drone company Titan Aerospace: report Sydney Morning Herald  - ‎33 minutes ago‎ Facebook is in talks to buy Titan Aerospace, a maker of solar-powered drones, to step up its efforts to provide internet access to remote parts of the world, according to reports.
Wed, 03/05/2014 - 05:43 | 4510927 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

War with Russia and or China would proliferate RPGs and manpads disrupting the entire already US destabilized Middle East and Africa oil supplies.

Both Russia and China and Iran have forgone weapons sales and profits to accommodate our MENA policies, we try and steal their oil & gas all bets are off.

 

 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 05:52 | 4510929 yt75
yt75's picture

The reality of today's world summarized :

Oil situation :
http://i.bnet.com/blogs/laherrere_all_liquids_production_1900-2200.jpg
Leading to :
http://iiscn.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bp-oil-price-2013.jpg

In other words current crisis is primarily a monstruous oil shock, and only the beginning.

Reminder :
Contrary to the legend on the above graph (barrel price), the first oil shock was much more the direct consequence of US 1970 oil production peak :
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.png
Associated to the rebalance of barrels revenues between majors and countries, and dropping of B Woods in 71 and associated $ devaluation.
The "embargo" an epiphenomenon, very limited, lasted 3 months, but pratical to hide US peak and "put the blame" on the Arabs.

Geopolitical summary :
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/35/Seal_of_United_States_Central_Command.png/768px-Seal_of_United_States_Central_Command.png

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!