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US Macro Data Starts Year Worst Since 2008; Goldman Admits "Broad-Based Slowdown"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Goldman's February Final Global Leading Index places the global industrial cycle in the "Slowdown" phase, with positive but decreasing Momentum indicating a soft-patch in global growth. The infamous Swirlogram has now shifted to a more negative stance than a year ago as 8 of the 10 factors worsened in Feb. Goldman remains unapologetically optimistic that this is 'weather'-related but we do note that the weakness is global in nature. In the US, despite beats in 'select' data, the US macro surprise index has started the year with its biggest fall since 2008.

 

Goldman's Swirlogram has shifted notably to the lower left (from slowdown to contraction) in the past year... as GLI momentum has faded notably year-over-year...

 

Only two of the ten underlying components improved in February. On the positive side, the Global PMI aggregate increased after last month’s drop, and the Japan Inventory/Sales ratio also showed significant improvement.

On the negative side, the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index® fell marginally and US Initial Jobless claims ticked up slightly. The Belgian and Netherlands Manufacturing Survey and the Baltic Dry Index were also softer. The Consumer Confidence aggregate, which climbed back to its highest level in six years last month, retreated marginally, while the Global New Orders less Inventories (NOIN) aggregate continued to decline, driven in part by strong inventory accumulation in the US. Finally, Korean exports were again a bit weaker but at decent levels, and the AUD & CAD TWI  aggregate was only slightly lower after a sharp fall over the previous three months.

 

And if the belief that the US will decouple from global weakness is still alive...

US macro has worst start to the year since 2008...

 

 

Charts: Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:10 | 4506310 dow jones 20000
dow jones 20000's picture

long Stagg Chili

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:17 | 4506326 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

We need Putin to speak more often, it seems he is able to move markets more

than the Pres or the Fed nowadays

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:19 | 4506335 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Tylers:   Don't forget the latest Goldman Swirlogram

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-20/goldmans-swirlogram-posts-worst...

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:28 | 4506364 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

+1 for your avatar. 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:21 | 4506339 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

If the macro goes too low for too long, only a war can get it going again.

I hope we don't start a war against a country with nukes.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:23 | 4506347 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Are you kidding? Just think of the broken windows.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:10 | 4506313 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

So BTFATH then.... got it.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:17 | 4506330 dobermangang
Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:22 | 4506345 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nope.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 11:19 | 4506614 RevRex
RevRex's picture

+ 1000

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:19 | 4506336 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Good, I would hate to think that we had stopped "beating expectations" all the way down...

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:21 | 4506340 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Can't be true.  The IMF said we are gathering steam!

Did they mean a steaming dump?

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 12:24 | 4507109 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

See shit in a bag above. 

Shit market on Wall Street exploding. Huge demand. 

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:22 | 4506342 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

we need moar supply side economics

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:22 | 4506343 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

So what this Tyler is trying to say, is S&P 1900 by Friday.

Got it.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:25 | 4506350 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

TIME TO GO ALL IN DUMBASSES!!!

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:27 | 4506358 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I expect to see 17K by the end of the day.....OK? GET OUT THERE AND BTFATH!!!!!!!

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:34 | 4506376 madcows
madcows's picture

The Ministry of Truth needs to advocate for war with Russia, so that the Ministry of Peace can blow up everything, which will enable the Ministry of Plenty to put everyone to work.  which will lead to much prosperity and happiness for all.

Dear NSA, er, Ministry of Love, I've rejiggered my computer lens like a backwards peephole.  I can watch YOU tugging it to collage girls getting dressed.  You dirty, naughty, jack boot, brown shirt perves!

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:36 | 4506384 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

And the market gaps up open 20 points to all time highs....

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 10:40 | 4506395 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Declare Victory, Rally Stocks, Slap Backs, Party On.

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 11:06 | 4506531 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Goldman: BFD!

 

(btfath)

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 11:07 | 4506546 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

I just shit in a bag and am now going to take it public on the NYSE.

 

Who wants to buy shares???

 

Yellen, get that fucking printer going and buy my shares you cunt!!!

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 12:22 | 4507102 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Provide financials. Long!

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 11:16 | 4506584 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Goldman also said Gold Would TANK in 2014

 

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101331595

 

 

Ilike the part where the clown says the economy will hit "escape velocity"

 

lol

Tue, 03/04/2014 - 12:22 | 4507094 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Thanks. Good laugh of the day. What a bank stooge...

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