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ADP Tumbles: Huge Miss To Expectations, Prior Data All Revised Lower, "Winter Weather" Blamed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

More snow. That is the assessment of Mark Zandi and the ADP Private Payrolls, which just printed at 139K on expectations of a 155K print. But don't worry: the number was pre-spun for idiot consumption, as the 139K was actually an increase from the January 127K. What was not said is that the January number was a massive revision lower from the previously announced 175K. What will also not be said is that the December ADP print was revised lower from 227K to 191K and the November 289K was chopped off and revised to only 245K. Of course, both of those numbers were massive beats at the time, and have now become misses, but who cares: they have served their algo kneejerk reaction purposes. And while the data is complete garbage, and is obviously manipulated and goalseeked (as we have shown before), it should be welcome to the US to know that in February it generated a whopping 1,000 manufacturing jobs.

But the punchline, certainly, is this from Mark Zandi: "February was another soft month for the job market. Employment was weak across a number of industries. Bad winter weather, especially in mid-month, weighed on payrolls. Job growth is expected to improve with warmer temperatures.

Because when economists become weathermen, only hilarious idiocy can emerge.

Following the revision, this was the biggest miss since February 2011. Luckily it was in January so it can be ignored.

This is what the current ADP job "gains" look like.

And here is the funny part: today ADP released its annual "data" revisions. The pre and post revised numbers are shown below. The blue are the original, the orange are the new. See if you can spot the difference.

Incidentally, this downward revision of 20% over the past three months is precisely as we predicted before the data came out, because the manipulation across all data sets is now so glaringly obvious a caveman can do it:

While the rest of the report is much comparable garbage, for those who still believe the lies they are spoonfed, here it is:

 

 

 

And from Mark Zandi and his merry weathermen:

Goods-producing employment rose by 19,000 jobs in February, up from a downwardly-revised figure of 12,000 in January. Nearly all of the growth came from the construction industry which added 14,000 jobs over the month; this followed downwardly revised increases of 17,000 in the prior two months. Manufacturing eked out a small gain in February adding just 1,000 jobs. January’s decline in manufacturing was upwardly revised to a loss of just 7,000 jobs.

 

Service-providing industries added 120,000 jobs in February, up from a downwardly-revised January figure of 116,000. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed the most to growth in service-providing industries, adding 33,000 jobs. This was well below the average gains for the industry in 2013. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities accelerated slightly after a poor showing in January, gaining 31,000 jobs in February. Financial activities employment fell for the second straight month after January’s reading was downwardly revised to an 8,000 job loss. These two months have been the weakest for financial services employment since January and February of 2011.

 

"The U.S. private sector added 139,000 jobs in February, well below the average over the last 12 months,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "February was another soft month for the job market. Employment was weak across a number of industries. Bad winter weather, especially in mid-month, weighed on payrolls. Job growth is expected to improve with warmer temperatures.”

No further comment.

Finally, the ever so informative infographic:

Download the Press Release

National Employment Report
For more data and analysis, download the press release.

Download Press Release

For additional insights, download the historical data (Excel file)

Subscribe to receive reports monthly via email or RSS:

About This Report: The ADP National Employment Report provides a monthly snapshot of the current U.S. nonfarm private sector employment situation based on actual transactional payroll data.

 

National Employment Report
For more data and analysis, download the press release.

Download Press Release

For additional insights, download the historical data (Excel file)

Subscribe to receive reports monthly via email or RSS:

Contact Us

ADP Research Institute®

Call: (973) 974-7406 
Email: ADP Research Institute

Media Inquiries

Call: (617) 520-7048 
Email: Public Relations

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Call: (800) 225-5237 

- See more at: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2014/February/NER/NER-February-2014.aspx#sthash.SfXD7XCu.dpuf

Infographic: ADP National Employment Report Shows 139,000 Jobs Added in February

 

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Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:38 | 4511204 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Next meme............Putin _____

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:20 | 4511327 zjxn06
zjxn06's picture

"Winter Weather blamed."

Global warming a good thing then.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:27 | 4511346 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Can always blame weather... since time memorial. Liquidity problem, Noah's flood... high unemployment, brimstone hail in Sodom and Gomorra.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:45 | 4511433 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

It's "time immemorial", Boris. An old English Law saying ...  

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_immemorial

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 18:57 | 4513965 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

That is not making sense, what is time "immemorial", is same as be "INfamous"!?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:31 | 4511374 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Bad News = Markets Up. Good News = Markets Waaaaaaaaaaay Up.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:39 | 4511206 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Zandi is a worthless piece of shit.  I know, I know, stating the obvious.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:46 | 4511232 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I don't give a Zandi, has a certain ring to it.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:50 | 4511240 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Yep, gettin ready for the summer misses to be blamed on the record hot weather.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:54 | 4511252 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

or the Bossa Nova. Same....same.....

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:18 | 4511324 youngman
youngman's picture

Everyone will be watching the World Cup......

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:55 | 4511253 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

summer misses to be blamed on the record hot weather.

 

I've noticed global warming almost always happens in the summer.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:13 | 4511307 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

Don't worry. The 139k print will be revised down to 110k, continuing the pattern. Stability....BTFD!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:53 | 4511250 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Zandi has no original thoughts. Guess they hand out PhDs to anyone in economics.

 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:56 | 4511498 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

No, no, no. You've got it all wrong. They only hand out PhDs to those who have successfully demonstrated complete indoctrination. 

 

Lack of original thoughts, or practical experience, is a PRE-REQUISITE for an economics PhD

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:39 | 4511207 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

janet is ready to do her duty

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:47 | 4511233 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Oh shit, does it get hot in the summertime?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:42 | 4511219 venturen
venturen's picture

in other news spending up...as your eletricity bill tripled along with $5 beef. Next up to ramp prices on chicken and pork.... Spending will be great when it is 110% of income! Porsche and Ferrari sales are recording records....so that should help spending as. Anyone know what private jet sales are?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:42 | 4511220 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

If the bad weather was already known, then why was this an unexpected miss due to weather?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:50 | 4511241 Racer
Racer's picture

You haven't been taking your medication today have you? Hmmmm...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:53 | 4511248 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Sorry, I was watching CNBC when the number was released. My bad.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:03 | 4511272 -.-
-.-'s picture

...( > '-)>...because we, the public, firstly will not read the ADP report this morning (or afternoon or tommorow, well maybe by Friday) and, secondly, because we like to sleep to the sound of "...it's the weather" much more to the harsh, heavy rapping of the truth, which takes standing in the nude (and you heard Mr. Z: it is cold!)

 

Shhhh...there, there...it's the weather (I mean, if you could objectively and politcally prove that it is not the weather, then would we not have thrown rotten tomatoes at any penguin pushing Global Warming? Al Gore? Years ago?)

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:42 | 4511221 kw2012
kw2012's picture

I thought the punchline was 14,000 construction jobs added in February.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:10 | 4511294 -.-
-.-'s picture

All of those jobs were most likely posted in Austin, Texas where there are so many cranes around the Capitol building that the Gubner himself is proposing to remove the Mockingbird as our state bird in exchange for the crane.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:44 | 4511223 Racer
Racer's picture

And no doubt, the warm weather will be blamed in the summer

"The QI Elves @qikipedia 4h

A 2011 study by a Swiss University showed that stockbrokers are more reckless and manipulative than diagnosed psychopaths."

 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:45 | 4511224 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The recently released figures showing a strong decline in job formation starting in December of 2013 may be more than a noisy statistic it be an omen of danger ahead. This is a reminder that Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve will have their hands full. Not only does this call into question claims the economy has reached escape velocity but lends credence to claims by others like me that QE and artificially low interest rates are not the answer. 

These policies and massive government deficit spending can only carry a distorted economy so far. Expect this issue to come front and center in coming months as the Fed will come under increased scrutiny and experience increasing demands to defend their policies. More on this subject in the article below,

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/01/slower-job-growth-red-flag.html

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:45 | 4511229 youngman
youngman's picture

There should be a lot of new construction jobs ...to fix all the frozen pipes and replace roofs that have collapsed from the snow and ice...wiat for the flooding season..that should be good too with all the snowfall....more construction jobs to replace all those flooded out homes and barns...its a fix and repair market...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:12 | 4511301 negative rates
negative rates's picture

We wouldn't have to fix and repair it, if it didn't break in the first place.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:45 | 4511230 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

So..................I can have my wood stove and SUV back now?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:50 | 4511235 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I don't understand how the ADP can get this data wrong and need to do revisions if they are actually cutting checks to people.  For an accounting company, they have no accounting skills.  Do they pay people that are not on payrolls and then ask for the money back when they do a revision?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 13:50 | 4512487 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Great question! I have asked this question for many many years. The numbers were better but still needed revising. I had thought an INSIDER would  answer  this question when asked in many forums. Never a response from anyone that sounded like they knew. Not a whistle blower to be found. 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:49 | 4511239 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

What if Peter Schiff is right againg like in 2008?


Ukraine and Peter Schiff: Recovery Fantasy, Dollar Crash Below 80.00 And Gold "Wall of Worry".

 Peter Schiff is discussing the very weak economic data released this week, Gold market's "Wall of Worry" in mass media and Gold stocks potential. We will add to the discussion the main development for us this week. It is the situation in Ukraine, which came almost out of nowhere for a lot of investors and now threatens the stability in Europe at least and has caused the major decline in US Dollar below the very important level of 80.00. 

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/ukraine-and-peter-schiff-recovery.ht...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:52 | 4511247 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

What if Schiff is right?  I don't think it is a "what if" question.  He is right. 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:52 | 4511245 Bosch
Bosch's picture

Don't worry millions of new low-skilled labors + global "warming" measures to make it even colder will help. 

 

-Shit liberals think. 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 09:52 | 4511246 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

if they would increase gubbermint spending by another trillion per year it would help. [/sarc.]

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:00 | 4511258 PowerPlayer
PowerPlayer's picture

Zandi has spent the last two months explaining how his numbers don't really reflect the weather because the ADP simply uses the number of people on the payroll.  This was how he explained ADP numbers being higher than BLS the numbers the last few months, but today he blamed the weather for the poor ADP number after saying the ADP number isn't really imapcted by weather.  When is someone going to hold these people accountable for their lies.  

 

I get that bad weather can hurt a resturant, but if I need a haircut or a new shirt, as soon as the storm passes I go buy it.  The fact that we have spent three months blaming poor economic numbers on the weather is getting ridiculous.  I guess the economy just shut down and everyone stopped buying groceries, stopped taking vacations, and stopped going to the doctor because it is winter.    

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:00 | 4511267 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

VALUATION FORCEFIELD DOWN!!!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:04 | 4511276 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Zandi is correct. Personally, most Wall Street brokers like to get laid more in the summer, so they will be hiring more hookers. Good for blow sales as well. Bullish on crack whores.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:08 | 4511287 replaceme
replaceme's picture

I just skimmed this - bullish?  Long long knives and torches?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:09 | 4511291 NoIdea
NoIdea's picture

So employment is increasing! S&P 1900 by Friday. Goldman Sachs will have to come up with a new year-end estimate

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:14 | 4511313 nakki
nakki's picture

I guess ADP is doing surveys now. How do they miss that bad? If you do the math the last three months have been revised lower by 119k just about what they counted in February. After the next revision from 139 to 121 for February they will all be gone. 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:27 | 4511351 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

just a little question: why hasno one heard word one from the GOP, about the real economy (main street) and the poor job numbers, let me guess: 1. they are  as much to blame as dems with no real attempts to cut .gov and the home loan mess, 2. they support the FED and it's policy which ben just said did not help main street-just the mega banks, and he is so sad, but like munger: "just suck it up." we are after all too stupid to understand he did it for the children. or maybe there all in it together in DC, it's all smoke and mirrors and elections are decided months before the vote.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:30 | 4511370 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

fuck all that dude.....the GOP IS in on it...and they don't care. Cruz as a side show....ObamaNoCare....and, they've all been told to shut up, lest they look even more lame.

Ryan - bless his little Nazi heart, plucks away, but that Buster Brown could not get elected dog catcher by the populace, mollified and stupified into thinking Biden is a "statesman", and Kerry is the master at it.

Jobs? NAFTA.

Real economy? Doesn't matter to these on the dole fuckers...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:32 | 4511381 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Soon....it'll get warmer...too hot to work and hire....

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:45 | 4511432 SomebodySpecial
SomebodySpecial's picture

How can we even trust the charts?

In the last month data (February) on the ADP pre-post revision chart, the post-revision data bar is there but the pre-revision data bar is missing.

Maybe they've got the logic all wrong!

Looks like the revised data comes first followed by the actual data (guess) is derived later...lol.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:46 | 4511440 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

Fun with numbers:

 

Nov revision 289 to 245 > -44

Dec revision 238 to 191 > -47

Jan revisions 175 to 127 > -48

 

Feb numbers 139, plus net revisions (interestingly -139) = ZERO net jobs.

 

Headline 139 jobs, UP from 127!.

 

Bullish.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 10:57 | 4511502 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

ok so how many people here don't work from say, November till May?

come on raise your hand...

right, how many people here have never interviewed for or been hired on to a new job during those very same months?

or

how many people here don't go to work when there any one of the following...

winter storm watch, winter storm warning, lake effect snow advisory, freeze warning, wind chill advisory, flood watch, flood warning, sever thunderstorm watch, sever thunderstorm warning, tornado watch, tornado warning, coastal surge advisory, rough seas warning, high wind advisory or any weather related statement other than one of the following...

1. a volcano just erupted in close proximity to your house and/ or place of employment.

or

2. a hurricane has or is about to make landfall over your house and/ or place of employment.

or

3. a tornado out brake has reduced your home and/or place of employment to rubble.

...Americans who have jobs will go to work in pretty much anything, yet here they are still trying to blame it on the rain, or sleet or snow depending on where you live.   

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 11:12 | 4511604 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Last February was the best month of the year....oh this is bad for the story they have been trying to spin us......

 

The twelve month rolling average of job creatcion is at a 3 year low.  And getting lower.

 

I won't estimate the BEA number.  I will estimate the rate of job growth for the 12 months ending Feb 2014:  1.48%, down from 1.59% a year ago.

 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 11:12 | 4511610 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

this can't be good.

 

wait, markets are up - again!!!  fuck it!!!!!  fire more people!!!!  let's get this pig of a market to go higher!!!!

 

right Yellen you wretched pig???

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 11:37 | 4511741 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Must...cook..books.

Accounting is dead.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:26 | 4512055 joego1
joego1's picture

They are not jobs anymore they are invitations from the kleptocrats to come run on the hamster wheel with the brake cranked to 9. Even kleptocrats need stuff done from time to time.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 17:43 | 4512373 IREN Colorado
IREN Colorado's picture

Jobs:

High taxes on Capital, investment, and personal income, one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world, significant regulatory barriers to adding US based employees to any major company, a government that wants no conventional energy development but supports uneconomical energy sources at taxpayer expense, a monetary unit that is being devalued at historic rates, government agencies (IRS) that aggressively attack pro-market individuals and organizations just for speaking against their policies, lowest labor force participation rate since records have been kept, highest food stamp/welfare/disability rates in history encouraging workers not to participate in the workforce, in most job markets a beneficiary of the combined Federal & state welfare system will take a pay cut to accept an entry level job (adding up all benefits available: housing, direct income, food stamps, education stipends), open manipulation of industry, financial, and labor statistical analysis (BLS), government spying on all private individuals (NSA), obvious signs that the Government is openly manipulating various commodity markets......  

Tell me again why we can't grow our economy?

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