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Beige Book Saw Modest-To-Moderate Growth Despite 119 Mentions Of The Word "Weather"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The soon-to-be-renamed-Boring-Book, for its constant uniformity of mediocre Goldilocks data offered little to strengthen bulls or bears (as usual) but it seems weather was the key once again. With 119 references to "weather" (6 times more than the January report), they remind us that:

  • *FED SAW ECONOMY GROW EVEN AS HARSH WEATHER SLOWED HIRING, SALES
  • *FED SAYS OUTLOOK 'AMONG MOST DISTRICTS REMAINED OPTIMISTIC'

But - the "m" words continue to dominate:

  • *FED SAYS MOST REPORTS OF IMPROVEMENT WERE 'MODEST TO MODERATE'

As 8 of the 12 districts "reported improved levels of activity"... but but but the weather. Healthcare concerns were cited 16 times.

After removing filler words, only one thing matters...

 

On the weather...

Several contacts indicated that residential mortgage lending had nearly come to a halt, in part because of this winter's extreme weather. However, a Virginia lender believed that the demand for new homes is there, but that people are "just trying to survive the weather right now."

 

Construction has been "slow to come out of the ground" primarily due to weather conditions.

 

Contacts remarked that energy prices had risen due to increased demand during the extremely cold weather

 

Reports on labor were mixed, as weather-related shutdowns slowed hiring slightly.

 

Some weather related effects were noted for a few sectors late in the period. However, the outlook remains generally optimistic

 

However, a number of contacts stated that the unusual winter weather affected production in late January and output was lower than planned for that month.

On Obamacare....

Contacts in Chicago indicated that higher healthcare premiums increased non-wage labor costs, while a growing number of employers in Cleveland reported passing through rising healthcare costs to their employees.

 

Contacts remain concerned about general macroeconomic conditions and uncertainty surrounding healthcare reform.

 

Several contacts express concerns about continued uncertainty regarding how healthcare reform will affect the staffing industry.

 

A growing number of employers are passing through rising healthcare costs to their employees.

 

Reports of rising costs related to healthcare were widespread. There is concern among small builders that employees may lose their employer-paid insurance.

 

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Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:10 | 4512873 Cursive
Cursive's picture

...the world of make-believe...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:34 | 4512970 Looney
Looney's picture

...FED SAW ECONOMY GROW EVEN AS HARSH WEATHER SLOWED HIRING...

What a pile of poop! If I want to hire someone and it's snowing TODAY, I will hire him TOMORROW...  ;-)

Looney

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:58 | 4513103 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Get your 1900 SPX hats ready boys and girls.   

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:13 | 4512886 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the word cloud should really just contain the names of billionaires because that's all they care about

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:17 | 4512902 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

as long as faceshit continues to make new all time highs on a daily basis, i guess all is well in this bullshit world.

 

when these people mention weather repeadetly,  do they not realize that the u.s.a is a really big country in terms of population and size, and that the majority of the country does not face snow and ice on a daily basis, or even frigid weather for that matter.

 

do they also not realize that a big country like the u.s.a, if it was really as strong as they like to make it seem it is, there is no way a countries gdp, or jobs added, etc, would be this weak due to a fucking snowstorm or temps in the 20's, this is no different than any other winter.

 

the fact that the ''market'' keeps giving it a pass is just total bs.

 

it would be one thing if the data was consistently strong , and the past few months were surprisingly weak, then mayb one can say weather has some effect, but considering we have had terrible data for the past 6 years on a consistent basis no matter what the weather is, its just downright comical how it always gets a pass.

 

this economy isnt like an A+ STUDENT who all the sudden starts to get C'S AND D'S, AND u give him the benefit of the doubt that maybe he is having personal issues at home that are effecting him, etc, this economy has never fucking been strong regardless if its 75 and sunny or 20 and snowing.

 

END THE FUCKING FED AND WALL ST NOW!!! AND OBAMAS PRESIDENCY!!!!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:30 | 4512959 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Your handle says it all.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:23 | 4512923 youngman
youngman's picture

Healthcare is the biggest fear..I am glad companies are passing on the costs...they voted for it..the employees..so now they can pay for it....that is how you teach them in todays world...unfortunatly Obamacare will be postponed until after the elections....total politics

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:23 | 4512926 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

It's all Nobel Peace Price winner 'Our Pal Al' Gore's fault! He did too good of a job solving global warming. Word is out that he's gonna need another $750m tranche of TARP GRANT to set the thermostat back to normal!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:25 | 4512933 The Dismalist
The Dismalist's picture

Modest to Moderate? Yeah, that's a real range.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:28 | 4512949 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Just think if even half of the U.S population even knew what a Beige Book is.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 12:10 | 4516946 Skiprrrdog
Skiprrrdog's picture

Isnt that a new social media site for 'semi-caucasians'?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:34 | 4512979 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Who are all of these "contacts" and what do they have to do with the weather?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:36 | 4512991 joego1
joego1's picture

Economic "Murderrate"

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:57 | 4513098 asteroids
asteroids's picture

You gotta be fucking kidding me. Instead of deep thoughtful analysis they try to excuse with the weather? Pathetic.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 16:26 | 4513230 ddsoffice
ddsoffice's picture

An ill wind continues to blow...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 18:28 | 4513847 Wait What
Wait What's picture

1 Trillion + in QE = 1.9% GDP growth. All it takes is a gust of wind and a little chill to topple all that paper. when you build paper houses don't come crying when they fall over... or as Evans seems to think is a good idea, throw more paper at the wind.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 12:06 | 4516918 Skiprrrdog
Skiprrrdog's picture

The weather is sucking my will to get up and go to work. I think Ill just quit and go get in line for some gubmint cheese...beat the rush...

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 12:07 | 4516919 Skiprrrdog
Skiprrrdog's picture

zzzz

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