Goldman Lowers Its February NFP Forecast To Only 125K

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's economic data has been absolutely abysmal. We know, we know, snow. However, first the atrocious ADP number, and then the abysmal Services ISM employment index plunging at an unseen pace, should give some pause for thought. It appears to have done so with Goldman's chief economist, the same guy who a month ago was expecting 3.0% GDP growth in Q1, and who just cut his February NFP forecast for this Friday from 145K to 125K.

From Goldman:

BOTTOM LINE: The ISM nonmanufacturing index was weaker than expected in February. Some survey respondents cited adverse weather conditions as a cause of slower activity.




1. The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 51.6 in February (vs. consensus 53.5) from 54.0 in January. By component, business activity (-1.7pt to 54.6) and employment (-8.9pt to 47.5) fell, while new orders (+0.4pt to 51.3) rose a touch. The inventory index?which is not seasonally adjusted?was unchanged at 50.5 on an n.s.a. basis but seems to have declined substantially on an s.a. basis. Some survey respondents, in particular those in the wholesale trade and construction sectors, cited adverse weather conditions as a cause of slower activity. February's decline leaves the ISM nonmanufacturing index at its lowest level since February 2010.


2. The ISM composite index?including both the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing surveys?fell 1.9pt to 51.8 in February. The composite index places considerably more weight on the nonmanufacturing survey.


3. As a result of the sharp decline in the employment component of the nonmanufacturing index, we have reduced our payrolls forecast to 125k and our private payrolls forecast to 130k

Don't worry though: it's the snow.

Snow which can practically slam a $17 trillion economy dead in its tracks.

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Shocker's picture

This Recovery is surely a mess.

Layoff List:


derek_vineyard's picture

125k new PT jobs.....decreased birth rate......not in labor force increasing......very soon 0.0% unemployed

target UE rate changed to -2.5% and target inflation to 10.0% so fed funds can remain at zero



Dr. Engali's picture

Whatever it takes so that the headlines can read "Better than expected".

Dollarmedes's picture

Let's just cut to the chase: May's forecast: 0k.

Iam Rich's picture

Wait I can do this too!  May forecast:  137k +/- 25k.

Pay me now.  Silver bitcoins.

Winston Churchill's picture

-125 k. by May.

Pink slips are a coming

There are no other cuts left for businesses to make.Every busness is already lean ,and mean.

Payroll is all thats left.

asteroids's picture

Sorry folks. ADP, BLS, ISM, they are all useless. The only thing that keeps this going is the FED printing money and the POMO schedule. Makes me want to puke just thinking about it.

Bonapartist's picture

surrender to the awesomeness that is the Fed.

IREN Colorado's picture

Ping! I think we have a winner.........

Gawd this sucks!

Dollarmedes's picture

What a genius. We're in the best of hands.

jackstraw001's picture

Last time I checked winter happens EVERY FUCKING YEAR!

pods's picture

Not like this year. We had Polar Vortexes!  And the storms had names!


ejmoosa's picture

Last winter, February was the best month of the year.....



Dr. Engali's picture

No it doesn't. If it did Al Gore would tell me so.

Bonapartist's picture

it's always sunny and 70 in Montecito.

ptoemmes's picture

Well, maybe, but not in SOUTH FLORIDA.  On the other hand, the economy still SUX down here, too.  But you all still come on down and do the tourista thing on SOBE with The Bieb, Miley, and the rest of the out of touch crowd.



B2u's picture

I live in Panama....we call winter...summer because it doesn't rain for 4 months...


Iam Rich's picture

What is the point or value of a "forecast" a day or two prior to the release?  And if your this bad at it, why forecast at all?

pods's picture

Somebody has to make the weathermen look good.

pods's picture

I forecast that this number will not be taken as accurate by 62.7% of the people who see it.

I forecast that whatever number is released it will be taken as a positive.

I forecast that we are fucked, eventually.

And I reluctantly forecast that nobody from Goldman will end their lives with their head on a pole in the town square.


ejmoosa's picture

Why bother guessing a number when the two previous months will be sharply revised?


Tell me what the total NFP employment number will be instead.  Then we can eliminate all the games(and fun).

NDXTrader's picture

What these geniuses seemingly haven't figured out is that citing the weather cuts both ways. It provides cover for the Fed to continue to taper even with weak economic data

Stoploss's picture

Good news!! That means the unemployment rate goes to 6.2ish.  !!

Mission accomplished??

Dollarmedes's picture

I wonder what they'll say when the unemployment number drops to 0.0%, but no one has a job.

B2u's picture

Goldman will further reduce their forecast to match the actual number and then claim they got their forecast "spot on"...

NoIdea's picture

Lower forecasts means more chance of a beat. Bullish

praps's picture

A trillion dollars of POMO per year is no match for a bit of snow.

FieldingMellish's picture

Recession is bullish! Depression even bullisher!

buzzsaw99's picture

does this mean Ann Margret is NOT coming?

thismarketisrigged's picture

what difference does it make, 300,000 jobs or 3 jobs added, we all know that the market will be sharply green friday after the report, because of course everything is the weather, and then in the spring time when the midwest gets severe weather outbreaks it will also be the weather, and then summer heatwaves will also be blamed, and in the fall, hurricanes and repeat.



TheABaum's picture

No matter what the number, it'll be "unexpectedly lower" than "expectations".

AKrandy's picture

If you want your "job lock" you can keep your job lock.

ChargingHandle's picture

How many thousands of people simply disappeared or stopped looking for a job this month? 

vote_libertarian_party's picture

Friday...140k....BETTER THAN EXPECTED!!!!


Winner winner chicken dinner!