Goldman Lowers Its February NFP Forecast To Only 125K

Tyler Durden's picture


Today's economic data has been absolutely abysmal. We know, we know, snow. However, first the atrocious ADP number, and then the abysmal Services ISM employment index plunging at an unseen pace, should give some pause for thought. It appears to have done so with Goldman's chief economist, the same guy who a month ago was expecting 3.0% GDP growth in Q1, and who just cut his February NFP forecast for this Friday from 145K to 125K.

From Goldman:

BOTTOM LINE: The ISM nonmanufacturing index was weaker than expected in February. Some survey respondents cited adverse weather conditions as a cause of slower activity.




1. The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 51.6 in February (vs. consensus 53.5) from 54.0 in January. By component, business activity (-1.7pt to 54.6) and employment (-8.9pt to 47.5) fell, while new orders (+0.4pt to 51.3) rose a touch. The inventory index?which is not seasonally adjusted?was unchanged at 50.5 on an n.s.a. basis but seems to have declined substantially on an s.a. basis. Some survey respondents, in particular those in the wholesale trade and construction sectors, cited adverse weather conditions as a cause of slower activity. February's decline leaves the ISM nonmanufacturing index at its lowest level since February 2010.


2. The ISM composite index?including both the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing surveys?fell 1.9pt to 51.8 in February. The composite index places considerably more weight on the nonmanufacturing survey.


3. As a result of the sharp decline in the employment component of the nonmanufacturing index, we have reduced our payrolls forecast to 125k and our private payrolls forecast to 130k

Don't worry though: it's the snow.

Snow which can practically slam a $17 trillion economy dead in its tracks.

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Wed, 03/05/2014 - 11:57 | 4511880 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

go lower

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 11:59 | 4511897 Shocker
Shocker's picture

This Recovery is surely a mess.

Layoff List:


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:32 | 4512072 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

125k new PT jobs.....decreased birth rate......not in labor force increasing......very soon 0.0% unemployed

target UE rate changed to -2.5% and target inflation to 10.0% so fed funds can remain at zero



Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:01 | 4511909 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Whatever it takes so that the headlines can read "Better than expected".

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:03 | 4511921 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

Let's just cut to the chase: May's forecast: 0k.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:06 | 4511948 Iam Rich
Iam Rich's picture

Wait I can do this too!  May forecast:  137k +/- 25k.

Pay me now.  Silver bitcoins.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:08 | 4511958 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

-125 k. by May.

Pink slips are a coming

There are no other cuts left for businesses to make.Every busness is already lean ,and mean.

Payroll is all thats left.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:45 | 4512147 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Sorry folks. ADP, BLS, ISM, they are all useless. The only thing that keeps this going is the FED printing money and the POMO schedule. Makes me want to puke just thinking about it.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 13:21 | 4512326 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

surrender to the awesomeness that is the Fed.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:02 | 4512550 IREN Colorado
IREN Colorado's picture

Ping! I think we have a winner.........

Gawd this sucks!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:02 | 4511913 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

What a genius. We're in the best of hands.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:03 | 4511925 jackstraw001
jackstraw001's picture

Last time I checked winter happens EVERY FUCKING YEAR!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:05 | 4511940 pods
pods's picture

Not like this year. We had Polar Vortexes!  And the storms had names!


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:05 | 4511941 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Last winter, February was the best month of the year.....



Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:06 | 4511943 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

No it doesn't. If it did Al Gore would tell me so.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 13:22 | 4512329 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

it's always sunny and 70 in Montecito.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:06 | 4511950 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Well, maybe, but not in SOUTH FLORIDA.  On the other hand, the economy still SUX down here, too.  But you all still come on down and do the tourista thing on SOBE with The Bieb, Miley, and the rest of the out of touch crowd.



Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:14 | 4511994 B2u
B2u's picture

I live in Panama....we call winter...summer because it doesn't rain for 4 months...


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:04 | 4511934 Iam Rich
Iam Rich's picture

What is the point or value of a "forecast" a day or two prior to the release?  And if your this bad at it, why forecast at all?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:19 | 4512025 pods
pods's picture

Somebody has to make the weathermen look good.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:04 | 4511935 pods
pods's picture

I forecast that this number will not be taken as accurate by 62.7% of the people who see it.

I forecast that whatever number is released it will be taken as a positive.

I forecast that we are fucked, eventually.

And I reluctantly forecast that nobody from Goldman will end their lives with their head on a pole in the town square.


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:05 | 4511938 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Why bother guessing a number when the two previous months will be sharply revised?


Tell me what the total NFP employment number will be instead.  Then we can eliminate all the games(and fun).

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:06 | 4511949 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

What these geniuses seemingly haven't figured out is that citing the weather cuts both ways. It provides cover for the Fed to continue to taper even with weak economic data

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:09 | 4511970 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Good news!! That means the unemployment rate goes to 6.2ish.  !!

Mission accomplished??

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:34 | 4512084 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

I wonder what they'll say when the unemployment number drops to 0.0%, but no one has a job.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:11 | 4511981 B2u
B2u's picture

Goldman will further reduce their forecast to match the actual number and then claim they got their forecast "spot on"...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:15 | 4512001 NoIdea
NoIdea's picture

Lower forecasts means more chance of a beat. Bullish

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:18 | 4512015 praps
praps's picture

A trillion dollars of POMO per year is no match for a bit of snow.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:20 | 4512027 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Recession is bullish! Depression even bullisher!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:22 | 4512038 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

does this mean Ann Margret is NOT coming?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:36 | 4512101 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

what difference does it make, 300,000 jobs or 3 jobs added, we all know that the market will be sharply green friday after the report, because of course everything is the weather, and then in the spring time when the midwest gets severe weather outbreaks it will also be the weather, and then summer heatwaves will also be blamed, and in the fall, hurricanes and repeat.



Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:43 | 4512139 TheABaum
TheABaum's picture

No matter what the number, it'll be "unexpectedly lower" than "expectations".

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:44 | 4512144 AKrandy
AKrandy's picture

If you want your "job lock" you can keep your job lock.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:57 | 4512212 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

How many thousands of people simply disappeared or stopped looking for a job this month? 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 12:59 | 4512226 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Friday...140k....BETTER THAN EXPECTED!!!!


Winner winner chicken dinner!

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