If You Thought January's Payrolls Were Bad, February's Should Be A Disaster

Tyler Durden's picture

Assuming that the dismal non-farm-payrolls print in January was "due to the weather," we suspect economists, strategists, and weather-forecasters everywhere are holding their breaths over the February print given the following 2 charts...


The weather looked like this during the January week when the NFP survey was taken...


And in February (the week of the survey) it looked like this...


So if weather is to blame for this entirely status quo unsupportive collapse in jobs data (from NFP to Initial Claims to ADP to ISM Services), then February should be disaster, right? Unless...


Charts: NOAA and @Not_Jim_Cramer

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Renewable Life's picture

As long as you can say weather, its bullish!

When its sunny and 75 throughout the Country and the numbers are terrible, that might be interesting?

Dr. Engali's picture

When it's 75 and sunny they will blame Russia or some other scary boogie man.

brewing's picture

And in other news today, Dick Bove predicts bank stocks to double...

Headbanger's picture

So when do we finally start hearing the scary "R" word again??


AlaricBalth's picture

Construction employment is considered weather dependent.  January 2014 there was quite a jump in construction payroll employment.


The weather as an economic anchor holding back an otherwise robust economy will be proven to be a false narrative as winter fades into another episode of Short Attention Span Theatre.

lasvegaspersona's picture


you will never hear 'recession' again. It cannot be allowed to appear. We have been in a depression since 08 if you back out the extra spending allowed by Fed injections. We are in endgame and from now on it will be all roses until the end. If the real numbers were allowed to speak they would tell a story that no one wants to hear.

Headbanger's picture

Yeah exactly.  The fact that we're NOT hearing the dreaded "R" word is a glaring sign of the insane denial we have of how horrible things really are now!


FMR Bankster's picture

Economic impacts of weather are related to snow and ice, not temps. The fact that it's cold only impacts construction in a small part of the country. Useless article.

N2OJoe's picture

That's true, the snow and ice boost GDP by people being forced to shell out $$ to mitigate it, if it's just cold, that's pretty much a non-factor.

SDShack's picture

Why won't we hear the dreaded R word again? Because...0bama!

NemoDeNovo's picture

Please Please edit your remarks beacuse its......


Our Lord & Savior Barack Obama!!!!!!!!!!


There fixed it for ya!



thunderchief's picture

Who the hell works outside these days?

People are just too fat and lazy for that.


playnstocks's picture

Shut up and BUY!

jubber's picture

S&P 1900 by the close Friday has already been programmed into  the FRBNY's pooter

alfred b.'s picture


     What is the most horrific is that I hear that another Winter may be coming up as early as December!    OMG !!


Aknownymouse's picture

Not if you start driving a prius

Bonapartist's picture

They should be able to use the weather excuse for awhile- the Midwest is supposed to stay cold and shitty through March.

Doubleguns's picture

Its not shitty for us making maple syrup. Just saying. 

Bonapartist's picture

According to a lot of ZHers- the weather is controlled by some mystical govt entity and HAARP and methane from unicorn farts and some other BS I'm not privvy to.

eternitarian's picture

Maple syrup.  Is that you, Harry?

Doubleguns's picture

My wife says I am hairy especially my back but its not my proper name. 

ptoemmes's picture

Weather is fine in South Florida.  See the red?  Come on down.  No jobs, but lots of sun-n-fun.

buzzsaw99's picture

the winter of our disconnect

they disconnect:

my heat

my electricty

my funemployment

tow mah cah...

ChargingHandle's picture

I wish fundamentals mattered. A shit report will be celebrated as a possible pause in the QE reduction and the S&P will be pushed to 1900 and beyond with remarkably light volume. I find it interesting that several previous NFPs were revised downward and essentially no mention of it in the MSM. It would be nice if we had an economy and stock market that were on the same page. China, Europe, & the US all are facing significant issues yet the market continues upward. 

Hongcha's picture

Show me anyone who has successfully predicted the market since 2008, besides the pumpers and shills and carnival barkers we despise.

The mindless bought 2009-present and they are the ones who made the $$; not the doomers.


Flakmeister's picture

An inconvienient truth around here...

corporatewhore's picture

lipstick on a pig. 

just like the turnaround at jcpenney

sbenard's picture

They'll just seasonally "adjust" it higher! It's called PROPAGANDA!

starman's picture

Ps: US has no gold left! In April China to announce they got all the gold!

Shits gonna fly in April!

BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Shits been going to fly every month since 2008.

skwid vacuous's picture

Payrolls drill: A really bad # is great, get to work Mr. Yellen; a bad # is still good untaper the taper already; and inline # is OK; and a good # is great news, green shoots etc.   - does that cover it ?

Al Capowned's picture

Buy the fucking un-taper mofo's

ms8172's picture

Can someone plese tell me why the market is not down today?????

Al Capowned's picture

Markets don't go down in Keynesian utopia infinite growth until everyone had a gold plated butler

Spungo's picture

"Show me anyone who has successfully predicted the market since 2008"

I think most people could predict a generic "up" direction of the market after one of the biggest market crashes in history. What other way can it go? Do stocks become free at some point?

Iam Yue2's picture

Take what Hatzius id predicting, and knock 80K off. Simple.

Al Capowned's picture

Either way Friday does not matter one but about the NFP markets are going to rocket up, how long till fed reverses taper that is thee key point where everyone knows fiat is fucked

Rising Sun's picture

Bullshit gets spewed, markets go up.


Da fickin' wedder made me do it!!!!!!

payrollservices's picture

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