If You Thought January's Payrolls Were Bad, February's Should Be A Disaster

Tyler Durden's picture


Assuming that the dismal non-farm-payrolls print in January was "due to the weather," we suspect economists, strategists, and weather-forecasters everywhere are holding their breaths over the February print given the following 2 charts...


The weather looked like this during the January week when the NFP survey was taken...


And in February (the week of the survey) it looked like this...


So if weather is to blame for this entirely status quo unsupportive collapse in jobs data (from NFP to Initial Claims to ADP to ISM Services), then February should be disaster, right? Unless...


Charts: NOAA and @Not_Jim_Cramer

Your rating: None

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Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:38 | 4512723 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

As long as you can say weather, its bullish!

When its sunny and 75 throughout the Country and the numbers are terrible, that might be interesting?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:46 | 4512765 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

When it's 75 and sunny they will blame Russia or some other scary boogie man.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:47 | 4512774 brewing
brewing's picture

And in other news today, Dick Bove predicts bank stocks to double...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:54 | 4512797 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

So when do we finally start hearing the scary "R" word again??


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:56 | 4512808 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Construction employment is considered weather dependent.  January 2014 there was quite a jump in construction payroll employment.


The weather as an economic anchor holding back an otherwise robust economy will be proven to be a false narrative as winter fades into another episode of Short Attention Span Theatre.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:58 | 4512815 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture


you will never hear 'recession' again. It cannot be allowed to appear. We have been in a depression since 08 if you back out the extra spending allowed by Fed injections. We are in endgame and from now on it will be all roses until the end. If the real numbers were allowed to speak they would tell a story that no one wants to hear.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:03 | 4512835 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah exactly.  The fact that we're NOT hearing the dreaded "R" word is a glaring sign of the insane denial we have of how horrible things really are now!


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 17:19 | 4513542 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Economic impacts of weather are related to snow and ice, not temps. The fact that it's cold only impacts construction in a small part of the country. Useless article.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 08:09 | 4515964 N2OJoe
N2OJoe's picture

That's true, the snow and ice boost GDP by people being forced to shell out $$ to mitigate it, if it's just cold, that's pretty much a non-factor.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:11 | 4512875 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Why won't we hear the dreaded R word again? Because...0bama!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:25 | 4512934 NemoDeNovo
NemoDeNovo's picture

Please Please edit your remarks beacuse its......


Our Lord & Savior Barack Obama!!!!!!!!!!


There fixed it for ya!



Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:52 | 4512793 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

Who the hell works outside these days?

People are just too fat and lazy for that.


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:41 | 4513017 thethirdcoast
thethirdcoast's picture


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:38 | 4512733 playnstocks
playnstocks's picture

Shut up and BUY!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:39 | 4512742 jubber
jubber's picture

S&P 1900 by the close Friday has already been programmed into  the FRBNY's pooter

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:45 | 4512767 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:47 | 4512771 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture


     What is the most horrific is that I hear that another Winter may be coming up as early as December!    OMG !!


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:03 | 4512837 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Not if you start driving a prius

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:50 | 4512786 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

They should be able to use the weather excuse for awhile- the Midwest is supposed to stay cold and shitty through March.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 14:53 | 4512796 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Its not shitty for us making maple syrup. Just saying. 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:09 | 4512865 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

According to a lot of ZHers- the weather is controlled by some mystical govt entity and HAARP and methane from unicorn farts and some other BS I'm not privvy to.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 16:56 | 4513432 eternitarian
eternitarian's picture

Maple syrup.  Is that you, Harry?

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 10:11 | 4516348 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

My wife says I am hairy especially my back but its not my proper name. 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:02 | 4512829 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Weather is fine in South Florida.  See the red?  Come on down.  No jobs, but lots of sun-n-fun.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:04 | 4512841 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the winter of our disconnect

they disconnect:

my heat

my electricty

my funemployment

tow mah cah...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:05 | 4512848 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

I wish fundamentals mattered. A shit report will be celebrated as a possible pause in the QE reduction and the S&P will be pushed to 1900 and beyond with remarkably light volume. I find it interesting that several previous NFPs were revised downward and essentially no mention of it in the MSM. It would be nice if we had an economy and stock market that were on the same page. China, Europe, & the US all are facing significant issues yet the market continues upward. 

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:06 | 4512852 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Show me anyone who has successfully predicted the market since 2008, besides the pumpers and shills and carnival barkers we despise.

The mindless bought 2009-present and they are the ones who made the $$; not the doomers.


Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:24 | 4512927 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

An inconvienient truth around here...

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:07 | 4512854 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

lipstick on a pig. 

just like the turnaround at jcpenney

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:09 | 4512864 sbenard
sbenard's picture

They'll just seasonally "adjust" it higher! It's called PROPAGANDA!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:09 | 4512866 starman
starman's picture

Ps: US has no gold left! In April China to announce they got all the gold!

Shits gonna fly in April!

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 18:29 | 4513857 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Shits been going to fly every month since 2008.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:16 | 4512892 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

Payrolls drill: A really bad # is great, get to work Mr. Yellen; a bad # is still good untaper the taper already; and inline # is OK; and a good # is great news, green shoots etc.   - does that cover it ?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:56 | 4513094 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

Buy the fucking un-taper mofo's

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:16 | 4512898 ms8172
ms8172's picture

Can someone plese tell me why the market is not down today?????

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:54 | 4513087 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

Markets don't go down in Keynesian utopia infinite growth until everyone had a gold plated butler

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:17 | 4512899 Spungo
Spungo's picture

"Show me anyone who has successfully predicted the market since 2008"

I think most people could predict a generic "up" direction of the market after one of the biggest market crashes in history. What other way can it go? Do stocks become free at some point?

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:38 | 4513001 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Take what Hatzius id predicting, and knock 80K off. Simple.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:53 | 4513081 Al Capowned
Al Capowned's picture

Either way Friday does not matter one but about the NFP markets are going to rocket up, how long till fed reverses taper that is thee key point where everyone knows fiat is fucked

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:54 | 4513085 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Bullshit gets spewed, markets go up.


Da fickin' wedder made me do it!!!!!!

Thu, 03/20/2014 - 02:08 | 4571302 payrollservices
payrollservices's picture

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