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The pool of potential capitulators is practically peopleless...
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
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No sellers.
"What Happens When This Chart Hits Zero?"
uhh ... I give up!
Examples of oxymorons:
- random order
- cruel kindness
- Investors Intelligence
Skynet IPO
His name was John Conner.
Everyone shut up for a minute. I need to concentrate.
"This time it will work. This time it will work. Big money, no whammys! Big money, no whammys!"
Don't Play! The FED has capitalized the "boyz" and they are firmly in control. Starve them and volatility will return, the greedy bastards can't help themselves.
"Gazprom for gold!"
Hey Europe, you want gas? Give me your gold!
Japan opened their afternoon limit up!
What happened?! Did they early release their QE again?
Examples of oxymorons:
Investors have no Intelligence...
you're so cruel, yet so kind.
Would anyone want to be a stock market bear in Zimbabwe when they started printing?
Given that our overlords won't let the S&P tank, maybe when the bear chart goes to zero you want to start shorting the currency...
But against what? Not other currencies, obviously, as they'll all be doing it.
That leaves hard assets.
You can't hide productive land - the ultimate inflation hedge - from the taxers. That leaves a few things, but the governments' price capping of PMs suggest to me that when the suppression fails, they have the bigest potential upside of any non-counterpartied asset.
You can't hide productive land - the ultimate inflation hedge - from the taxers.
very true, but maybe it's possible to hide what is considered productive by altering the perception of it.
BigJim,
+1000
That was one of the most succinct, well-reasoned posts I have read recently.
It does make you wonder what "assets" will perform well during the next (inevitable) crisis. I have long feared holding real property, as that is simply too tempting a target for bankrupt governments.
Perhaps it was said best by Charles Dickens' character Wemmick from Great Expectations:
"It don't signify to you with your brilliant look-out, but as to myself, my guiding-star always is, 'Get hold of portable property.'"
So at the height of the financial crisis in 2008/9 the percent of the market who were bears was always less than 50%, I call BS on this data.
dude there is a GREAT vidoe about the guy who figured out the whammy pattern by videotaping episodes and replaying in slow mo.
he went on the show and scored bigtime by correct timing. guess what , the show sued him after. he got to keep the money!
Thanks for the heads up. Very interesting. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFEBCve-3Cw
my favorite "military intelligence".
Public Education
second favorite.
"Sustainable Growth"
...on a finite planet. Good one :)
Pubic education.
Shave 'em and everything will be fine.
Shick and Gillete profits up along with birth control, abortions, and STD's, which need big pharma and corporate sick-care. Win/Win for the kleptoligarchy.
Good government for me.
Jumbo shrimp.
public hygiene
stable currency
strong dollar
"monetize this"
- Federal Reserve?
Forest Preserve
Jumbo Shrimp
Good dog
Loyal cat.
- Honest Obama
Everyone runs for the exit at once. Yeah, that will work.
The issue of scale is important. The boyz have been so successful manipulating the market on almost no volume, at or near the close. What is the Omega Plan? What happens when they get hit with selling in volume at these nose bleed levels? Anyone want to stand in front of that freight train and yell stop?
This BS continues through the fall elections. Typically TSHF toward the end of presidential terms so we may have another year or 2 of market levitation.
Could be, but I bailed on local real estate when it was going up 25% per year, gotsidank, and the market just did 30.
Speaking of which, I got a six dollar hair cut today (special promo) from a 23 year old goth chick, who would have performed a few other services for six bucks of happy hour drinks at Sharky's . Hell'sthematterwithdeflation?
Lol. I used to play a game on craigslist I call "sugarbabes". It allows amateurs to keep their delusions that I am not offering $500 bucks for a sex date, nice dinner, wine, etc. I am a classy old perv lol. It helps to look and play the part well. Obviously a creep couldnt pull it off, and one has to be careful.
That was back when I had tons of money to burn. I prefer to be a girl's first customer.
You would not believe the response to some well worded ads.
18 to 30 and good looking. I got the long slow foreplay too and bareback, not like a professional girl at all. The new normal is gonna be awesome for older guys with money to burn.
Deflation and underemployment rocks.
The new normal is gonna be awesome for older guys with money to burn.
Older guys with money to burn have had the short end of the stick for too damn long.
Lol. Damn right.
Rich old white men are being treated like Jews at the holocaust nowadays. They never get any breaks ;)
To add to the awesome perversity of the whole thing one chic was a senior in high school. She said she was 18. I had no reason not to believe her but she did look awfully young.
Haha. Rich old white men have it bad? Maybe because they are easy to laugh at.
And they smell gross, too. Wrinkles and bad smelling, and impotent and skin tags and liver spots and wierd body angles and sagged in chests with empty-skin bellies and oddly skinny legs. Poor broke girls, they will need brain bleach. Well, things will be great for Gross Old Dudes for a brief period. But when things genuinely fall apart, these young ladies will be pointing their young, healthy boyfriends in the direction of Gross Old Dudes whose skulls need splitting for their gold.
And us gross old dudes will gladly put a few hot rounds in your face then fuck your bitch.
And from what I've seen you "healthy boyfriends" are all skanky infected heroin addicts who are better off dead anyway.
So I take back fucking your bitch cause she's infected too so another round goes for a good cause.
Gee, what an edifying thread this has turned out to be.
it ain't so bad for younger guys with money to burn, either. been saying that for months. wage deflation in the 'services' sector is like a 21 yr old single malt on sale. it's hard to pass on 21 yr olds.
Sometimes the chicks are tired and pissed and their feet hurt. They just wanna get drunk and screw. If I knew at 25 what I know now, I'd have left a good looking corpse a long time ago;)
That is so true. A confident respectful guy who takes them on an awesome date and knows what he wants. ........yeah I wish I had been smart at 25.
Gawd I find it amusing that despite all thinking we are just a little smarter than everyone else, when all the bullshit is peeled away, we are just a bunch of dogs looking for a leg to hump.
And that my friends sums up humanity.
You da man Carl Popper!!
PS. it isn't just white men...
"The new normal is gonna be awesome for older guys with money to burn."
There was a time when I would have had a similar mindset.
But that changed when I changed my mental paradigm. The answer to "What is the meaning of life?" is an all important one and I've come to the conclusion that the answer is neither "42" nor "He who dies with the most toys wins." Nor even "He who nails the most beautiful babes wins."
But I fully realize I'm in the minority here. Probably by a very long shot.
Perhaps but not alone in the line of thinking. Keep it up, the thoughts that is.
how bout he who has the awesumest life wins? not too many toys, not too many women, but enough that he never wanted for anything, and always got what he wanted. you can only drive 1 car, be in 1 room in 1 house, and stick your weenie in 1 chick at a time. the rest is for conversation... and the memoirs. no man should pass without leaving behind some impressive memoirs of a life fully lived.
btw, nailing beautiful chicks has kinda lost it's meaning; you can't go more than a couple of weeks w/out hooking up with a babe after a night out drinking. chicks are flinging their goodies around like they're going out of style.
It's true! I remember when I was a teenager (in the late '70s) getting laid was a big deal, and required serious graft.
Now? If you're confident and can crack a joke or two, you're in.
I prefer a more 'long term' outlook with 'accomplishments' that (in my humble opinion) have a bit more substance.
First, an amazing wife I've built a life with, a friend but also a lover I'm still in lust with.
Second, astoundingly accomplished kids who are well on their way to making a difference in the world - who got the educations they wanted without any debt.
Followed by a few very good friends I've shared this with, a reasonably well traveled life - have seem a good amount of what I've wanted to see, a wide ranging skillset that lets me point to houses I've renovated, cars I've restored, furniture I've built and quite a bit more and a library of books that served only to remind me that no matter how much I've learned, there's so much more I don't know.
I suppose we could have had more 'money to burn' but we preferred keeping our souls. You really don't need all that much if you're not a narcissitic hedonist.
Not bad for the first ever to get past high school from a working class family content with 'this is good enough' since they got here a couple hundred years ago.
I just popped a boner on that one.
I dig goth chicks.
They will jump off their desks.
Being academics, they don't realize that you need to jump off something really high to end it. Its not just the jumping, but the scale.
The chart is worthless.
Surveying the attitudes of people who do not trade tells you nothing about the behavior of the computers who do trade -- at 100 Hz.
"at 100 Hz"
You're off by several orders of magnitude.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DGNZnfKYnU
Wargames 'the only winning move is not to play'
They are surveying an ever DECREASING number of people who are STILL 'investing' in an overblown bubble of a market. OF COURSE the remaining 'investors' are 'bullish' - but then they're also oblivious
The REAL bears have bailed out and gone long in TANGIBLE assets.
When it goes to zero, they start a dis crediting campaign on another indicator which just doesn't work in the new normal anymore
Indeed, and I finally get to collect some souls.
They turn it upside down and start over. Going Negative!
Unfortunately, in reality only so many people can have a negative wage.
Please recognize that I operate in terms of calories and not fiat money.
I hear it's better with ketchup,
and crow is best served with Heinz;)
This is the last bubble...when this baby pops...shorts and longs will end up with a big pile of Jack Shit.
Take profits and buy shit is the name of the game. Land, PMs, resources, food, beer, smokes...anything.
Give a man a beer and he says "Thanks".
Teach him how to make beer, and you have a man ready for Armageddon.
True story...inasmuch as you believe an asshole telling the truth on the internet. Anyhow, I stocked up on hooch last fall and I thought I had a supply that would last a year. Nope...I snuck a bottle here and there and before you knew it,,,my house was ready for the Romney Clan.
Great advice...learn to homebrew or in my case...make a still.
I've brewed beer and wine.
I've built a still.
My son makes a really good mead.
I guess we are ready!
Nice, I'll rejet the Mikuni
Start a fire for a man and he will be warm tonight.
Set him on fire and he will be warm the rest of his life.
You ain't quite right, hippie.
Thanks for the chuckle.
That's absolutely fascinating and exactly what I wanted to see. Thank You ! What date does this chart end at ? What was the last data collection point date ? /Boy is it ever time to short this bitch.
Sold Short four ES contracts @1872,75 basis Mar.'14. $200/pt. We shall see.
I had to buy back my short Euro positions to clear the decks for this stock market short; I picked up around $4,000+ on that; I'll figure it out later.
All 15% are members of ZH. Oh well, at least we all get to die in the blaze of glory that will be written about us in a couple thousand years.
bullish
bearish
those terms no longer have meaning as they both lead to the same destination...collapse and wipeout. Outcomes without winners but long on losers.
long bullishness, short bearishness...flip a coin and obtain a better result...
You've never heard of short selling? You sell a contract on the futures market called ES; it's the S&P500 contract and the lower the price goes the more profit you make. A market with a composition like the one depicted in the chart is topped out and ready to crash. The title to the post is a jjoke, I suppose; or the poster is very naive; it's not going to go to zero, the fact that it's so low is the single most important indicator of where you are in the cycle of the market pricing that exists; it's infallible, actually. Notice how high the number of bears was in 2008 at the bottom when B of A sold for $5/share, and Tyler was encouraging the faithful to short it ! Tops are the inverse. When everyone is bullish, it means everyone has already bought the market; the next thing that happens is stagnation in price; then dis-affection amongst the recent buyers who aren't making any profits, and all price movements are self fulfilling prophecies; or positive feedback loops; both going up and going down. The machines are all trend followers; that's what they're programmed to do; all they can do is make the process faster.
yeah, so many inverse products whether short, naked short, swaps, derivatives, etc. All will likely share a common feature from these lofty heights w/ record leverage and w/ no reserves...they will be banned, they will be vilified, and most importantly one way or another are not likely to be paid off.
PM's are another hedge to bad governance and monetization of unpayable promises...and in the worst of governance and obvious monetization...PM's and their holders are being made to suffer.
Tough time to be a contrarian absent the rule of law
Keep an eye on Dshorts NYSE Margin Debt - when it rolls it could be that it will give a heads-up early by a few months to the turn.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-S...
After that, consider GRZZX - the Grizzly (Bear) mutual fund - it is tradeable in some 401Ks that are structured for self-trading.
Also Hussman's weekly stuff is pretty interesting...
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html
Jeezas, dude, it's just one chart, settle down.... It's an interesting chart, but CLEARLY the "going to zero" crack was sarcasm....
Lighten up, Francis- not everything Tyler prints is intended for the "Morningstar" paper-trading hero crowd.....
Posting your trades here? What are you- 12?
BTW- the action is Friday, not tonight- dead money until the jobs report, but I'm sure you knew that...... BUWAHAHAHAHHAHH!
Oh the insanity of down voting the sweater-meat in that avatar ...
Fonestar GOES LONG ands spends what's left of his bitcoins on Twitter and FB STOCK.
Bitcoin hits $666
And gold hit 1337 at the same time. I took a screenshot of it :D
WoW! Go1D pwns BiTCoN :p
My Indian Viagra supplier informed me today that they now accept Bitcoin, no joke.
Virtual $ for hard-ons'R'Us...half a dinari for me life story, ain't no pleasin' some people!
Zorba - Feather or Dot?
Drug meds . com. definately dot. They are cheap and good.
The feather or casino Indians are called native Americans now.
what could go wrong???
Then the Plunge Protection Team has to sacrifice maybe an hour or two extra to buy up Chicago Futures then the NYSE CASH
Wait and see. You're dreaming.
Seller strike...when money is infinite and assets (regardless quality) are scarce.
Also, what happens when there are no more Treasury's for "foreigners" to buy??? Ohhh, that's right, the Fed begins tapering.
You are the third person I know to catch this. Unfortunately, it won't change the scarcity issue one bit.
Swipe that EBT card all you want. It still won't buy shit.
This is the point we KNOW its time to open a massive short.
Why? Because it defies nature for nobody to suspect down-side is possible...especially in this centrally-planned cesspit of a world.
Good luck with timing that
Ftse100 at 7200 and I'm short ETFing no more than 10% of my portfolio.
Housing bubble; guaranteed to pop.
Debt bubble; guaranteed to pop.
UK student loan write offs, as most are working in retail/not earning enough to automatically be paying back their loan; Most likely already happening.
May take a while, but it'll come good.
It'll time itself. Just sell a daily high and wait; if it goes higher; take your loss. do it again. I mean you might want to watch prices for a week, but basically, just do it again. Ideally, you want to sell one of these "new highs"; when the price doesn't rise above your position; do noothing; for a long long time. If it starts falling down a staircase, sell more contracts with the markets money.
You could have said that when we started making lifetime lows in that index a year ago, meanwhile if you have had basically ANY short deltas you been fucking slaughtered.
Link to the Index showing a low 12 months ago; please.
I don't have a link but I recall it being posted in the beginning of last year as we broke to new lows and several times since then. The scale is super vague but you can eyeball it and see that we have been making new lows in if for over a year now.
And to answer the question in the OP; the market crashes up for lack of sellers, first day we go up 5% then the margin calls on any remaining shorts combined with capitulation and euphoria gap us up another 5% to close day two up 10%, we proceed to melt up from there for a few weeks as basically nothing is for sale and the market closes out the month up 50-75%.
We then hold that permanent high plateau as the green chutes propel the economy to escape velocity, Obama is given another peace prize and appoints himself eternal god king of america. We enter a utopic golden age of post scarcity with Teslas in every garage then we live happily ever after.
Hell look at the tape; we are going straight fucking up, record high after record high, no weakness in sight, took a brief rest today and have been going straight up in the after hours. We may even print SPX 2000 by the end of Q1 instead of Q2.
But everyone is constantly suspecting a crash. Everyday there's some nutball telling everyone today's chart pattern looks just like 1929 or 1987 or 2008 or 1873. Ok, I haven't seen 1873 yet...but it's coming...watch.
If one were to be unbiased, the chart is quite bullish, but isn't human sentiment just that? ahem
It is, until it isn't.
No; it's not bullish. that's a fatal mis-understanding; when sentiment runs too far in the bullish direction a top is formed and a bear market begins.
QE4?
I think counting the "Twist" and when the Fed implemented policy that continued QE, we are on QE 10.
Or, QE X, if you will.
Quick! Everybody run to one side of the boat
Yellen Prints 2 Trillion a year?
I know I know....Recovery Summer FIVE!
It is not going to 0 as there will be enough folks who change their mind, thus creating a new batch of sheep for those short shears to work through....
We Hedge?
zero hedge. we will be unable to process oxygen.
when all the trading is done by computers with money printed for them by the fed does this chart matter anymore?
To answer your question: retail investor will enter the market.
the higher it goes the LESS likely retail gets back in - hence QE4EVA
It was a jab at the retail investor. i.e. he is always late to the party and always wrong.
When I read the title, I guessed the article was going to be about dwindling physical gold at COMEX.
Well I guess they are related, sort of.
Dow 36000 before the crash
Bearishness down to 5%
Zero Hedge down to 3 readers. Goes bankrupt.
That's when I find me some triple short ETF's but at that point they will no longer exist anyway, an anachronism of an earlier era.
Fonestar will be the last to post. He will refer to the last three readers as retarded assholes. Yet, somehow, he will receive 3 up arrows.
CP, you will still be able to find some of those Ultra triple-short Inverse ETFs for the adventurous to go full margin with......
You already know where this is headed. Groundwork is already in place. Crash stocks. Give everyone the motivation to put their money in a myRA.
Big Brother is the ultimate "too big to fail."
Time to IPO "An enterprise of great advantage, but none to know what it is." and scram with the money. The advantage is to me, so there is a lot of truth in the IPO. I swear I got these across my desk during the internet binge in 1998/9.
That's one of my favorite quotes from the "South Seas Bubble" market in London; that's a cute one alright. I think Twitter fits the bill pretty well. I don't think we need to wait for Pets R us.com to come back.
ONWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MOARWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This chart equates to 5 long years to DOW 16k+ and 5 weeks to DOW 5k.
That's how it reads.
No worries. There will be a 1-10 reverse split.
Is zero the singularity point of the con? Is there a con event horizon? Is the con an entry point to another dimension? Are astronauts stretched to death if they fall into the con? Is it full of stars?
My God, it's full of stars
I'll tell you this is definitely the longest con I've ever seen.
They have been whittling away at this thing for more than 100 years.
Props for the 2001 ref....
Yeah, sure. Back in late 1999 I went short AOL and YHOO thinking they were at top, just before they gained another 50%.
Just wait until the banks and big investment firms start spending all that QE money...
WHen you have no new buyers, you are left only with sellers. Very bearish sign.
Where can I take the survey?
The Banks and Dark Pools start harvesting the Bulls....
when the last bear goes down
there will be seal poop
all over any thing ...
didn't charts like this used to be bearish?
So did Hugh Hendry.
All any chart tells you is what's happened so far.
Tomorrow is another day.
What's happened so far is what tomorrow is built on.
I went bearish equity in December, and I had been bullish since Faber said stocks had bottomed - yes I had blind faith in him then. We are back at the all time highs and for no reason except because the Fed could. They could burn the dollar in an inflation inferno. Yet they streched the system thin; UE is still high but inflation is taking away the bottom dollar. SSTF and pensions are not returning and there is no growth.
Stocks topped. The Taper is a bluff that the Fed still has control of the financial system - they don't.
Sell equity and stack gold.
You can throw all the charts and analysis away, see what Zerohedgers need to know that when you don't have a ZERO SUM game, meaning somebody wins somebody loses, than you don't have a real rationale market, so past analytics are useless. There are no BEARS because there is no reason to sell, before you had to sell to take profit to buy something else, to save money for something else. Nobody has to sell when you have a Federal Reserve that has printed, and ECB who has printed and every other central bank printing. Nobody needs to sell EVER, this market will continue to grind higher and is supported by 5 years and some $22Trn dollars of new printing combined. So when you see the market go down, you buy, because it wont stay down for long. Ive been sitting here for 3 years now waiting for the market to pullback like everyone, guess what, You will be sitting here for 30 more years, aint gonna happen.
You really feel confident that we are at the beginning of a 30 year Fed controlled bull market?
i was sure this was a chart of money velocity, which i am pretty sure will go negative at some point, (people saving more money than they spend) not what everyone has a short short short timeframe its only logical to be a bear, and if you are short short short on time you don't appreciate that the fed can project growth into the next ice age. the bulls are not very bullish and the bears are waiting thats all.
Saving more than one spends? In aggregate? You must be joking! The US is running trillion dollar deficits like it is going out of style....
Oh, wait.
They will create a false flag, go down 1%, draw in any bears that aren't bankrupt, and then jam it up 3% the next day?
Would love to ask why someone doesn't agree with that? A possible Crimean standoff sends us down 1%, and then the relief rally off of a press conference where Putin denies what has been photographed pushes us up the best day of the year. Why would next week or the week after be any different?