2 Charts Explain Slowest Economic Growth In History

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,


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skwid vacuous's picture

it's all good what time does shark tank come on tonight, love watching cryptos try to take advantage of decent hard working 'merkans   

idea_hamster's picture

"they have not "repealed" the business cycle completely"

THE HELL THEY HAVEN'T!!  Time to double down on Twitstergram and Cristal, baby!

adr's picture


Is Twistergram where naked Russian models play twister and you get the pictures sent to your phone???

cossack55's picture

The current business cycle is a two-speed....moar and moarer

Dollarmedes's picture

To paraphrase a popular lefty meme, "they have [contemporized] the gains and [postponed] the losses."

adr's picture

Yes, the I have a good idea but because the entire retail market is owned by the crooks I must sell to the crooks to make a little money show.

Take a decent product, send it to China and manufacture it for $.25 and sell it on Walmart As seen on TV shelves for $19.95.

Flakmeister's picture

A third and most important chart would be the Brent price...

The above are nothing more than symptoms....

TheMerryPrankster's picture

The oil - the cheap oil, that built the 1st world is gone. There is no cheap surplus to grow economies.

Negative growth rates lie waiting on the other side of the boundary zero.

We cannot drill our way out nor build our way out, we can only die out.

When the world population collapses from  starvation, disease and bad weather, the few left will feast among the rags while the oligarchy hides it in its bunkers picking off the survivors with drones for sport.

Beware the future, enjoy now, it may not last...

kenezen's picture

It's really a quit good post! Insightful but not made to spread enjoyment from either biased side. There's one thing I'll add. Without some recovery of heavy industry (Which won't happen because Fed Gov. won't allow it as proven by Agency programs from EPA, NLRB and others plus growth and allowances of Class action law suites. Read my fairly long article Entitled Americas "Economic Recovery", plus "Fatal Imbalance" There are other but those cover your very good predictions in some detail.


adr's picture

There is no more business cycle. There used to be production, profits, consumption, and loss.

The new market doesn't need production or profits. Consumption is below typical depressionary levels.

All that exists is the flow of funds from the Fed to cover any loss. From that is derived corporate profits. Cash made from selling shares and buying shares back.

asteroids's picture

Bingo. $2B/day (or whatever)  levered up 50:1 or 100:1 to pay for it all.

Muppet's picture

"The Fed stole the handle and the train won't stop rolling.... no, it wouldn't slow down".  J. Tull

the wet spot's picture

>>>This is not a "bearish" prediction of an impending economic crash


Wait what??  Had to double-check to make sure I was still on Zero Hedge.

ebworthen's picture

Bonus chart:  http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_1999_2014_all_period_M01_data.gif

(Labor force participation rate 1999-2014, link opens in new window/tab)

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Good chart. I really need to whip that one out when I hear " oh, but the unemployment numbers are dropping so things are getting better!" Certainly more useful than a smack to the side of the head.


monad's picture

Backstretch of the recovery... there will be no recovery until the mob is run out of government.


starman's picture

2014 will be the beginning of a new recession if not Something worst!

I own a business that dropped 20% from 08 and 2013 droped another 10%.

For lease signs on our street for Over a year! 

seek's picture

Similar here. My business' income leads the business cycle by about 6 months, I started to see the '08 collapse in my Q2 billings, and it was super obvious by Q3.

I just went ahead and did a dump of the books:

2008    -27%
2009    17%
2010    3%
2011    35%
2012    -11%
2013    -18%

Not enough data for Q1 Y-o-Y, but it's looking slightly down so far.


pig lipstick's picture

Another perspective from real world (business owner): 

From January 2002 through January 2009, our average YOY growth rate was 22%.  In January 2009, our sales dove an immediate 25% YOY.  We spent January 2009 through December 2014 on a slow bleed with total sales minus 8% from February 2009 to December 2013.  We remained profitable, but it was a real struggle.  We froze hiring, and spent 5 years reducing overhead wherever possible, including moving to a smaller office, selling company cars, letting go of janitor, etc.

January 2014:  Another immediate 18% hit.

If this 'cliff dive' happens like it it did in 2009, we will NOT recover from this 18% YOY decline (as can be seen in our numbers from January 2009 through December 2013)

My seflish view is:  "Brace for trouble!"

My Company view is:

1.  There is nothign left to cut on employees.  Our hiring freeze will turn into layoffs after just 30 more days of bad signals.

2.  There is nothing left to cut on expenses, so this adds to the critical "knee jerk" requirement to respond to Number 1 above very quickly.

Now here is the kicker:  I said we were profitable (barely), for those 5 years since 2009.  Guess where those profits went?  Directly into my personal savings account!  No Cap Ex.  No company reserve.  No employee benefits. No additional marketing efforts, etc. etc.

I am very scared for all that do not have savings right now.  I promise you I am NOT the only business owner that found it prudent to forget company growth and focus on  personal balance sheet instead.  IF the shit hits the fan this second time around, WATCH OUT BELOW because I just know business owners are NOT GOING TO HANG IN THERE FOR A SECOND BEATING.....they are going to take what they have and ride the storm out.  Look around you and you will see that EVERYONE with the means to do so is grabbing cash......they will not stop because they know what might be coming.

This is the REAL reason the middle class is dead (or soon to be doomed).....they've been tapped dry by the system that encourages people like me to be SCARED TO INVEST A PENNY IN THIS JOKE OF AN ECONOMY!



Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

If you haven't watched this video, you cannot possibly understand where we are going. I read these analysis from varied individuals and I see them trying to make sense of what is going on. They are living in the petroleum age and haven't got a clue.