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Forget Russians! A Small London Flat Will Cost $50 Million By 2050
While Canada may have bitten the hand that feeds it real-estate bubble, one of London's biggest real-estate investors says that even if sanctions were imposed against the Russian oligarchs, London property prices will continue to soar. The average London "flat" could fetch GBP36 million by the middle of the century, and is therefore a bargain now, Hugh Best advises clients. His reasoning is impecable, "the average price in prime central London is now £1.5m, and has been growing at 9% a year, which we think is firmly sustainable. They have been growing at that level for 40 years and we see no reason for that to change." With two-thirds of new homes in London sold to investors, they are all driving up prices and "the Russians are only a part of it... and the Ukrainians might come with their money."
You may think a shoebox-sized flat in central London costing more than £1m is an insane illustration of a property price bubble, but it could be the bargain of the century.
According to projections by one of the biggest investors in "prime" property in the capital, that average flat could fetch £36m by the middle of the century – if its predictions of 9%-a-year growth in prices become reality.
Casting aside concerns that Russian oligarchs will no longer be sheltering their billions in luxury mansions, London Central Portfolio has launched a £100m fund to buy one- and two-bed apartments in the capital's most exclusive districts.
...
Hugh Best, LCP's investment director, said: "The average price in prime central London is now £1.5m, and has been growing at 9% a year, which we think is firmly sustainable. They have been growing at that level for 40 years and we see no reason for that to change."
...
The Crimea crisis would not halt London property's inexorable rise, said Naomi Heaton, LCP's chief executive. "The Russians are only a part of the market and have been dwindling in number over the past few years … we could instead have the Ukrainians coming in with their money. London is the destination for the high net worth community of the world, and we are only just beginning to see the mainland Chinese. The loss of some Russian oligarchs is not a fundamental loss for the market."
So buy, buy, buy...
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Yeah, sure, to the moon, nothing will ever affect property valuations (*cough*).
This is beyond FUNNY!
USS Truxtun’s foremast is 198 feet, mainmast – 220 feet, but the Bosphorus Bridge’s clearance is (get this!) 210 feet!
I hope the main mast is somehow retractable or somepin’, otherwise we will look really dumb. ;-)
Looney
The title of the article shouldn't be that a flat will be "worth" $50M in 2050, because that isn't a representation of its value.
The title instead should be that your money will not be worth anything by 2050 and your live savings will not be able buy a simple flat.
Zimbabwe anyone?
Wait till they can't afford to live in the burbs and they'll start to gober pile on top of themseves.
Wasn't london burning the other day? There may be no london by 2050.
Alright, who just hijacked the plane?
[t]wat ever happened to gentrification?!
Go long on London hit-squad futures.
Rose glass optimists. This 'intelligent' chimp will have long exterminated itself by then...
"House prices never go down,"....the mini-skirted, 5th grade teacher-turned Realtor down the block says.
All those million dollar flats in 1980s Tokyo are now worth billions.
Right?
By 2050 $50,000,000 will buy about 100 pounds of pinto beans so the flat will be a steal. Unless of course the place is infested with zombies.
Or....there will be no flat. Just a rubble.
.
True, but bread will only be eight hundred dollars a loaf, so might as well buy two.
And when things get even more dicey in the Middle East, that much more will flow to London.
Just like Lat Am money to Miami.
Just like Chinese money to LA, San Fran and Vancouver.
Just like Russian and other Euro money to NYC as well.
BY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!!!!
I cannot fucking believe they're pulling this shit again just 6 years after the bust... Luckily the average Joe's memory isn't THAT short. Anecdotally hearing a lot of people saying "Here comes another crash." Glad people are starting to wake up to the Banksters games.
Wall Street/London "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy..."
Also, luckily the Average Joe is fuckin' broke.
There are only so many banksters able to afford this shit - and they are getting thin on the ground (or is that flat!)
Oh that was " Fun from high"
Why = X 2...... so fubar Hugh
There are only so many banksters able to afford this shit...
And there in lies the rub. The FED knows the only way tokeep the economy from seizing up is to put $$$ back in the hands of consumers, they just won't say it. However look at their actions. The taper goes on (with whatever excuse or magic metric is needed to justify it). The have all but gauranteed a rate rise in 2015. Until you get housing back down to a manigable percentage of income the proles can't spend. That's why Staples, Radio Shack, etc. are all fucked. The FED used the last 5 years to save their member banks from nationalization. Mission accomplished. Now they are going to let others (taxpayers and specuvestors) take the 5-Year-Delayed losses from Housing Bubble 1.0. Can't wait to see those stupid enough to invest in Rental Backed Securities and REITs take their losses as the FED shrugs it's shoulders. As long as BofA, Chase, Citi and Wells are okay and the dollar is still reserve they could give fuck all. As long as those 5 interests are served the FED has fullfilled it's REAL charter.
I'd say 90% of this board have been waiting for part duex for like 6 years ... its coming... 1929 bitchez. Die bart die. The bart the. Ok time to pet the donkey...
Actually, REITs are doing quite well right now. I sold all mine when I saw they had shit returns last yar. Gee *now* they're up like 9%. At least in my 401k. Nucker Futzin.
Things weren't looking so good in the Summer of 2012, then Ben helicopters in and starts an unprecedented printing spree (before the elections) of $40 billion per month upping it to $85 billion in December. Why such a drastic intervention if things are so hunky-dory?
I don't see a boat, do you see a boat skipper?
They'll "cross" that bridge when they get to it.
or wait till a really low tide...
Gold bitchez!
And people born 15 years ago will be 5 meters tall because they have grown an average of 10 centimeters a year and I see no reason for that to change... I mean there will still be food around and stuff, so why should it change?
sounds one of those sound-bites you usually hear at the top ...
Just what I was thinking, we heard the same thing in the US in 2007-08.
Sounds like Hugh Best has been out dancing with Chuck Prince.
"...is therefore a bargain now, Hugh Best advises muppets..."
fixed it
Off topic: Here's Satoshi! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvObl5TWhTE
And it is stories like this that show us the beginning of the end. And so it goes.
Yes, get them all in one place!
Once they are all in one place.....
http://static1.grsites.com/archive/sounds/misc/misc303.mp3
What they failed to mention is it can also be had for 4 oz of gold
One doesn't move to the City of London for the weather.
not that much. ~6-7% above inflation. i would bet it is around 30 - 60
Says LCP boss who is trying to raise £100m to buy property... what a surprise. I never cease to be amazed how stupid some people are or how stupid they think others are.
London will be a ghost town if a 2 bed flat were to cost £36m....
Bollocks!
LOL. Here's the companionn article: http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post--why-the-dow-could-hit-26000-by-2016
Instead it is far more likely that the Dow hits 26,000 by the end of 2016. It will happen more easily than you might think.
"All it takes is greater-than-expecte?d economic growth. The experts have us growing at a 3 percent clip in 2014. What happens if growth comes in closer to 4 percent this year?
I'll tell you what happens -- the Dow jumps 20 percent and closes the year within a hair of 20,000. We’ll get stuck on that psychological barrier, but it won’t take long to bust through.
In 2015, that 4 percent growth inches higher to 5 percent. That will be enough to push the Dow up another 15percent to close at 22,600 by the end of 2015. Then, if growth continues at a 5percent clip, a bull market rally will send stocks up another 15percent to 26,000.
There you go, and I wouldn't bet against us."
I wonder how much a cardboard box in a London alley will be worth in 2050?
No idea, but it will still be 10x most couples' joint income.
I'm long tents; there's going to be a real shortage when this thing implodes.
Share your street with some newcomers!
http://swags.org.au
Five o'clock afternoon tea in carboard box. Not unpleasant at all, rather lovely.
London will most likely look like a penal colony in 2050, and private security guards making GBP5 mm/yr doing their best to prevent more heads rolling.
Ok, but does it have a good view?...
btfd
That is some brilliant financial analysis Mr. Best. But there's no reason that 9.2% gain can't continue compounding forever. Why sell yourself short?
What's even more exciting is that by 2100, they will be worth 2.9B pounds! And that modest flat your great-great-great grandchildren inherit in 2200 will be worth 19.3 trillion pounds!
What a bargain!
I certainly hope LCP is getting 2 and 20 for that sort of incredible financial skill/
Someone cull this guy, he's an embarrestment to human nature.
Love to. If some friendly country on the other side of the Atlantic will start shipping AR15s and copious quantities of ammo, I'll get it started.
And in 2050 UK a loaf of bread will be $100K GBP assuming the currency is still around
4BED Res. not far from Centre of London
1963 £3,000.00
2014 around the million mark
I do not know what the salaries or wages were at the time but that is a fact I LIVE in it
Do I count it as equity ? no fucking way I need to sleep someplace
For any body intersted out there I will sell the bricks according to the Value of the house
Cheers.
Well, the Elysium project has to get started someplace.
The Elysium Class need to separate themselves from the trash-class so their kids don't interbred.
This is why economist make horrible negotiators
Never been to London. What is the attraction? Weather, food, beautiful women?
Re: What is the attraction?
For members of the Elysium Class: other members of the Elysium class.
What's the attraction?
It makes it possible to tour the 3rd world without having to leave the 1st world.
I have this nice hollow tree in Hampstead Heath which is vacant at the moment. Very quiet locale, near the ladies pond too. I can rent the hollow part for the knockdown price of £1200 per calendar month. If you would like a view of Gospel Oak, I can do you a deal on the upper branches of the tree for £400 per person sharing. What do they call it, an eyrie? Yes that's it, a 2 bedroom bijou eyrie. Free swimming lessons included.
@Cacete de Ouro
Just wanted to explicity thank you for the laugh. Read it at least 3 times hearing Hugh Grant's voice and still chuckling.
Speculative bullcrap to drive the markets.
Yah, but by then an apple will go for 3 million, a pack of chewing gum will set you back 1.4 million, a decent meal 22 million and so forth. So...it's all relative.
Well.... Hugh is a douche.... but he might be right if Yellen continues being a felon.....
Let me be clear. I have spent lots of time in London since the year 1982. Seen massive chages down in old dockland, now Canary Warf financial district on the North Bank of the Thames opposite Greenwich England. But the greater London area as a whole is in my opinion a place second to none in the world to live, not least as it is central to England and other important European areas, like Paris, Gothenburg Sweden, Edinburgh Scotland and other places.
I, if I had the money, and I admit I do not, but if I did, I would be living there right now. I would even settle for one of the outer areas in West London. Sadly, I have no access to Fed fiat at ZIRP, so I can't afford London. But many of the world's wealthy know London like I do, and want a place there above all other places. Yep, London RE is white hot.
but it's full of badly teeth'd Poms and very mediocre rugby???
between the bad weather, bad teeth, bad food, soccer, and the influx of people with no allegiance to the God, Queen, and country....it sounds more like a lunatic asylum
you can have it
How do you know I'm not all of those things myself, eh?
i've read your stuff long enough to know your rugby is better than theirs. however my claim to their below average lifestyle still stands, your current predicament must be middle america, so for that reason I can see your desire to return to what was once probably your ancestoral homeland. (as it is also mine).....all i'm sayin is Jack; don't do it brotha!!
Fiji
Tahiti
Nelson, New Zealand
Manley Beach, Sydney, Australia
the list is endless
Nelson New Zealand Oh yes, I remember me and my Australian girl friend many years ago having a picinic supper all by ourselves on the beach in Nelson. I prefer further south on the west coast of NZ, down where the road turns up into the Southern Alps. I love the outdoors, so NZ is my favorite place on this earth. But at my age now and my desire for more culture, London does it for me, though.
Australia was nice, I mean really nice, but I prefer the cool temperate climate of New Zealand, and the fact that NZ has no fucking snakes. I hate fucking snakes. In OZ I could not put a foot down without looking first!
1990, brother and i mountain biked from Greymouth thru the Otira Gorge in one day, think it was over 9000 ft in elevation and possibly 4 temperate zones. Took 9 hours and so steep he bent his crank pushing down so hard, had to push for the last five miles with about 80 pounds in his panniers. Took the train the rest of the way to Christchurch the next day, never been so happy to sit and watch a countryside. Started on the bike in Auckland 4 months earlier. Mother grew up in Nelson and we almost stayed there for life ourselves. Too bad, we ended up across the planet in 2 feet of snow 6 months of the year..... Really miss Jonah Lomu high steppin thru the English backs making a mockery of English rugby and don't forget no Bears. One of the nice things about hiking in NZ, no grizzly around a blind corner.
That sounds great, we spent our whole NZ trip on the South Island going all the way down to Fjord Land National park. Hiked in the mountains down in the Southern Lakes areas. Te Anau, Wakatipu and all the southern lakes, then we took a cummuter boat for the power station across Manapouri through the tunnel and down to Doubtfull Sound for a boat tour of the Fjords. We had a rental car, cooked our own meals in NZ kitchenet motels, and drove to trial heads for day hikes. Was the trip of my life. And we went in Oct. which was early Spring. No tourists anywhere, not even in Queenstown! Weather was lucky for us, we seemed to dodge the spring downpours most places.
I'm a Manchester City and Liverpool soccer fan.
@Jack Burton
What makes it "second to none?" I admit the tube was clean and efficient and theatre scene was great, but I've never experinced more rude and/or aloof people, worse cuisine ("pub food" really?) and general lack of warm or inviting cityscape.
I hear that a lot. Maybe I stay outside the tourist areas and go into central London for the culture. I prefer a quiet evening down on Ealing common watching a pick up football match.
Wouldn't the fact that the cost of a small London flat would be 50 million dollars in 2050 based on a 9% yearly increase for 36 straight years be an argument against its sustainability to any rational person?
Hahaha when the world resests to reality they'll be around 1mill EURO!
Only one problem with future London real estate appreciation I can see, and that is that between London and New York or DC, London is far easier to get a suitcase nuke into and spite of heroic efforts the US can't being to match the centuries-worth of racial hatred that the British have managed to inspire. There is a ME saying that "50 generations is not too long to wait to avenge a wrong." So my guess is that, given the choice, the first target of opportunity of a group of jihadis with a nuke would be jolly old London town.
A small suggestion to British intelligence - watch for sudden surges in 'getaway' airline bookings by Pakistani-surnamed travelers. Because even though the authorities are unlikely to know its coming, sure as hell the word will be quietly spreading in the days just before.
Go ahead with the red arrows.
"Hugh Best, LCP's investment director, said: "The average price in prime central London is now £1.5m, and has been growing at 9% a year, which we think is firmly sustainable. They have been growing at that level for 40 years and we see no reason for that to change.""
=======================================
Dear Hugh, Could that be because you lack imagination?
I guess that any trend will continue until it stops continuing. There are always an infinity of possible reasons for any financial trend to stop.
They have been growing at that level for 40 years and we see no reason for that to change.
except maybe demographics and reality, like i always ask the people around me that own homes "can your kids afford to buy the house you are in or one in your neighborhood" and almost without exception the reply i get is "i could not afford to buy the house i live in on my current income"
so "sell to whom"
damn, it only took 20 minutes for that comment to post.
Fuck London, seriously!
No one wants to live there. People are ugly (they killed all the beautiful people in witch hunts), food is shit, weather is horrible and the way the speak, you just want to punch them in the face after about 5 minutes.
Izit?
There is no group of people in the world who are perpetually more optimistic than real estate professionals. Ironically, they are consistently involved as principals in some of the worst real estate investment disasters, both at the individual and institutional levels.
In the area where I live there are many land development projects gone bust with home building lots that once sold for $300k-500k now asking $20k-25k. And who purchased these lots at the peak as a speculative investment, sometimes as many as five lots for their personal account? You guessed it, real estate sales reps and employees who were working for the developers. Go figure. Somehow the term “Greater Fool” just doesn’t cut it here.
Good luck with than projection if UK caves into agreeing to Russia sanctions. Sounds like a pipe dream for the moment.
Well perhaps it's time to send Wales and N. Ireland packing as well as Scotland. Why should these lower castes leech off the growing wealth of England?
A British sense of droll humor.
Rule Englandia, Englandia rules the Thames
Saw where Kerry showed up in the Ukraine with a large check. Funny how we give these countries massive amounts of money and it keeps showing up in the London real estate market. Duh!
Not really a good investment for someone looking for income - rental yields in Prime Central London are very poor
perhaps Naomi Heaton is referring to ukrainian oligarchs like yanukovich who thanks to the Ashton leak, might have earned himself a get out of jail free card now. or how about other ukrainian oligarchs like timoschenko yats and assorted oligarch governors recently appointed to eastern regions? there can't be many of them left that don't already own UK properties. one thing is for sure. the UK with its tax friendly non dom policy has supported housing prices since the eighties. to continue remaining a safe haven for foreign money it has to stay geopolitical neutral - probably not what their US paymasters have in mind.
The amount of people than commute in and out of London daily is well known and that volume will only grow worst with crazy housing prices.
But that is actually good news for other areas of the country as they benefit from the so called spill over effect.