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Happy 5th Anniversary To The Bull Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 

5 years ago today, the S&P 500 made its post-crisis low at the oddly demonic 666 level. What many may not remember is... the last so-called-at-the-time "secular" bull market lasts exactly 5 years and 1 day (from October 10th 2002 to October 11th 2007)... it's different this time though.

 

The last "secular bull market"

 

The current "secular bull market"

 

h/t Brad Wishak of NewEdge

 

Of course - nothing changes...

As a gentle reminder: At the end of October 2007, right before markets began their descent to their current lows Cramer gave out investment advice on his wildly popular show, Mad Money.

Here was his game plan at the time:

"You should be buying things and accept that they are overvalued, but accept that they're going to keep going higher.

 

I know that sounds irresponsible, but that's how you make the money.

 

Right now, up is down, left is right, peace is war."

Indeed. Just don't look at the following chart...

 

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Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:10 | 4518329 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Aren't we a week past due on that 1929 comparison crash?

 

Just say-in'.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:17 | 4518373 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Where is that useless tool Tom DeMark??

Also, I am unsure how Cramer can walk on the streets of NYC and not get punched. I mean I am sure he has fucked up a lot of people's lives with his calls.

Bear Stearns is FINE my ass!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:29 | 4518443 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Maybe that's because noone actually does what he says. He is just a ratings clown. And I use "ratings" very generously

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:32 | 4518460 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Laissez le bon temps rouler!!!

 

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:17 | 4518650 EuropeanBankster
EuropeanBankster's picture

I agree!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:27 | 4518434 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

5 good years? So still 2 to go. Read your fucking bible, stupid. ;-)

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:10 | 4518331 gjp
gjp's picture

It's different this time.  There is no pretense of capitalism.  There's no going back, the authorities are all in and everyone knows it.  No-one goes bankrupt until everyone does at once.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:30 | 4518451 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Correct.  They have taken over because they have the use of infinite money--both dollars that can be physically printed, and electronic dollars. Face it, the debt ceiling is no ceiling, its all just show so people can pretend there is a limit on how much money they can conjur up out of thin air.  And when you have infinite dollars at your disposal, you can make the market do anything you want it to, at any time.  They can make it go up, down or sideways.  The only hinderence they have is that physical resources ARE limited.  TSHTF when physical resources are either in short supply, or completely unavailable.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:11 | 4518337 gdiamond22
gdiamond22's picture

This time is different! In 2007 banks were lending to people with bad credit... in 2014 they are...oh wait..shit...ok, ok

In 2007 we had massive deficits! the debt/GDP ratio was insane, in 2014 our debt is...oh wait...shit...ok, ok

Wait, GOT IT. In 2007 we had a new Fed Chair who knew exactly what HE was doing, now its a SHE!!! oh wait..shit...ok this time its not different...

 

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:23 | 4518408 SDShack
SDShack's picture

This time is different in the type of tools that are going to be used to herd the sheep after the next engineered crash. MyRA is not a coincidence.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:34 | 4518464 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

In 2007, they weren't printing money like they are today, so today it is different.  There won't be a crash in the sense that the DOW crashes.  I don't think that will ever happen again.  The politicians don't want that to happen, it costs them votes.  Remember Chuckie Shumars "get to work Bernanke" speech?  The rising DOW won't be indicative of prosperity however, at least for the masses.  The .001% on the other hand will probably be living in Panem by then.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:44 | 4518520 gdiamond22
gdiamond22's picture

You don't think te DOW will EVER CRASH AGAIN? I just want to make sure I read that right.

The politicians didn't want more drugs on the street so they declared war on them: Ended up with more drugs (and crime)

The politicians didn't want Americans drinking, so they prohibited booze: Ended with more booze (and crime)

The politicians didn't want more terror, did't want more poor people homeless ,didnt want more unemployment...catching the drift here?

Everything they try to cure, solve or in this case prevent has the equal and opposite CONSEQUENCE of their actions.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:16 | 4518624 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

I get what you are saying beam me up, with "they" but the reality is everything will change once they lose control of the bond market. Sometimes, "they" have no control over things. "They" will try but they can stop it when it gets going. It will happen at some point. My bet was 2014 but if the printing accelerates, and 10.10 starts it could run til 2016. But I assure you, a mess will happen at some point

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:58 | 4518789 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

The mess is happening.  Its happening right before our very eyes.  The problem is, the DOW isn't a signal of the mess we are in.  You don't use a thermometer to check wind speed.  All I am saying is they can make the DOW appear to be whatever they choose to make it.  Its nothing but a pencil whipped number on a piece of paper at this point.  And what purpose would it serve TPTB to make it crash again?  They are already taking everyone to the cleaners with regards to taking all of the wealth, they don't need to crash the market to steal it.  If they did that, they would lose the "illusion" that the economy is great.  We here at ZH know the truth, but the sheep think all is well as long as the DOW is up every day.

As for the bond market, I thought that too for a long time.  Russia and China sell their bonds?  No problem, Yellen will just buy them all up and presto, 2% on the 10 year is still all the rage.  You assume they are limited in the amount of money they can print.  How do you know they are only pumping 75 billion a month into the economy?  Because they say so?  They could be printing a trillion a month right now and who would know?  Show me the last audit of the Fed.  Oh ya, thats right, we can't audit the Fed.  On paper everything will look great, while we swirl the drain ever faster.  Remember we are in an upside down world now.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 18:37 | 4519004 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Agree with much of what you say, but don't dismiss TPTB wanting to engineer a stock market crash. Remember this little gem: 0zer0 2014 SOTU Speech "MyRA guarantees a decent return with no risk of losing what you put in." 

If what you say is true, that there will be no crash, then why would 0zer0 specifically tout the safety and return of MyRA versus not losing any value? Me thinks that is a very big tell that they have to scare the sheeple into MyRA, and the only way to do that is tanking their other investments. Rinse & Repeat.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:39 | 4518750 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"In 2007, they weren't printing money like they are today, so today it is different.  There won't be a crash in the sense that the DOW crashes.  I don't think that will ever happen again."

 

Math doesn't care   100% of bubbles burst and defate.  It is mathematically impossible to have an exception.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:50 | 4518805 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

I agree with you insomuch as bubbles will burst.  The lack of infinite resources will be the cause of the burst, not the "math".  Math is infinite, resources are not.  The S&P can still be at 5000 though, its just a number on a piece of paper. 

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 18:11 | 4518912 jtz5
jtz5's picture

.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:12 | 4518338 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

Nevermind, just BTF(everything).

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:25 | 4518676 wuush
wuush's picture

This time its gonna be different! Trust me.

BULLISH

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:11 | 4518339 Devils Advocate
Devils Advocate's picture

Can the charts at least represent the same scale!!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:12 | 4518344 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Just when the S&P 2000 hats started getting passed around..

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:12 | 4518345 LibertyForSome
LibertyForSome's picture

This calls for a 5-year anniversary dinner, courtesy of SNAP!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:13 | 4518352 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Yeah, it's Bull alright...

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:14 | 4518354 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

The last bubble will be unpredictable....but it will be the last. 

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:14 | 4518359 yogibear
yogibear's picture

As a friend said,  "you'll never see the S&P 666 again". He's sitting pretty with millions he made if if stocks like Apple.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:21 | 4518367 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Fucking Cramer.

Meanwhile, U.S. CONgress votes to blow $1 Billion of taxpayer obligations on the Western Ukraine putsch (coup de'etat) oligarchs.

How could the markets not be up when Trillions have been thrown at Wall Street?

Fucking joke, fucking Ponzi, biggest societal theft of all time.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:19 | 4518382 soopy
soopy's picture

Ah, grasping for that 'narrative' again that you so eagerly deride.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:23 | 4518405 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

I have a feeling we will be revisiting that low sometime in the next 1-2 years

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:24 | 4518417 replaceme
replaceme's picture

I skimmed a lot of this - did Cramer say buy, 'cuz I feel like I should be buyin'.     </tongepunch>

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:26 | 4518431 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

I just scooped some NQ @ 3720, deal of the century what with 4000 by the end of the month being a given.   BTFD bitches!!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:27 | 4518432 bdub2
bdub2's picture

Ma and Pa 12 pack have more in stawks than any time except Y2K shut down/inet bubble, margin is redlining, leveraged loans are verticle, Mutual Fund equity to money market assets all-time highs= All of these coincide with historic wealth evaporation. 

...meh, who cares,  shoulda just typed btfath

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:30 | 4518450 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

if u think they aint serious about defending the new phony paper price line in the sand at 21.50 u aint been watchin todays action...

http://www.silverseek.com/

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:35 | 4518462 The_Ungrateful_Yid
The_Ungrateful_Yid's picture

BTFATH or get fucked.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:38 | 4518491 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

666 * 3 = 1998

place your bets gentlemen

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:49 | 4518798 machineh
machineh's picture

'S&P 2K by springtime' -- Janet Yellen, off the record

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:51 | 4518555 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

They'll shut down the entire Internet and freeze the markets at ATH before they ever let a crash happen again.

Anyway, that's how I've seen this whole charade playing out since 2009.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:53 | 4518561 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Cramers buy and hold strategy worked !!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 16:55 | 4518566 Phillycheesesteak
Phillycheesesteak's picture

And for those entire five years ZH has been calling for lower markets and not to buy stocks. Damn shame. I do admire the resolve, though.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:14 | 4518635 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I don't recall Durden ever calling for anybody to not buy stocks. He'd a been pelted with red arrows if he said that around here.

Stawks go up make money. Stawks go down make money.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:30 | 4518698 Phillycheesesteak
Phillycheesesteak's picture

You're kidding, right? Take a look at this article. This has been the theme for 5 years now. The crash is always just around the corner. If stocks go up, it's only because of low volume. Stocks go down, the crash is beginning. Same thing over and over and over.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 18:38 | 4519008 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Thou hast no patience , grasshoppa

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 18:55 | 4519009 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Surrounded by verbal and written bullshit all day.... numbers that don't compute.... does that mean you can't make money examining the thoughts on the dark side...? serious question.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 22:16 | 4519786 Darkman17
Darkman17's picture

I know man, I feel you! But ten I go buy GLD, puts, and bullets and count my blessings that I have a few more months to prepare. I wish I had this foresight in Yugoslavia in 91, but I was just a kid.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 23:15 | 4519940 oooBooo
oooBooo's picture

The problem with these bubbles is timing one's exit. Timing is always the question.The crash is always around the corner, predicting the exact timing is the problem. It's like an earthquake or volcano. The big one is always coming, just can't say when. 

When the next crash happens most people will be caught unaware again. Those who didn't get back in will feel justified. They will still have their principle, most everyone else will be wiped out.

 

 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:17 | 4523294 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Pink COMMIE POS! You're on the LIST!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:21 | 4518648 wcvarones
wcvarones's picture

Wasn't it March 9, not March 6?

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:53 | 4518820 machineh
machineh's picture

March 9th was the low close. 

The intraday low of 666.79 occurred on March 6th.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=02&b=3&c=2009&d=02&e=10&f=2009...

 

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:34 | 4518704 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"You should be buying things and accept that they are overvalued, but accept that they're going to keep going higher.

 I know that sounds irresponsible, but that's how you make the money."

 

That's how Wall Street makes the money.  Sell over valued stocks to the muppets.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 17:55 | 4518828 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

well at least I didn't have to spend the last 5 years looking like cramer, his wife must be a peach too...

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 22:14 | 4519772 Darkman17
Darkman17's picture

5% of my net worth is now in puts against the bubble, pop bubble pop!

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