Initial Claims Beat; Drop To 3-Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture


Must be the weather... Initial jobless claims swung from the worst in 2014 last week to the best in over 3 months this week, with a 323k print (well below the 336 expectation). No states estimated claims this week but even the Labor Department suggests the series' volatility is "coinciding" with winter storms. Overall claims dropped 8,000 to 2.91 million on the week but it is clear the descending trend is over for this series - which fits with ADP and ISM Services weakness.


From big miss and worst in 2014 to big beat and best in 2014...



Remember when initial claims was heralded as key support for stocks? Not so much anymore


Charts: Bloomberg

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Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:40 | 4516225 flacon
flacon's picture

"Data" = S&P up! 

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:42 | 4516237 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No wonder claims are dropping cause there's hardly anybody with a job now!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:52 | 4516279 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Ah, the Fed Mandate officially starts to owrk in 2008. /sarc

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 10:08 | 4516332 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

series' volatility is "coinciding" with winter storms

So in other words, as long as winter can be blamed their numbers are meaningless.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 13:09 | 4517242 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Lots of snow plow drivers were hired.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 14:34 | 4517767 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

I take it all back. Their numbers will be meaningless whether winter can be blamed or not.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:42 | 4516236 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

Green Shootz!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:43 | 4516242 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gotta stuff all that POMO somewhere after wide S&P here it comes!

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:43 | 4516243 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

It could happen.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:45 | 4516250 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

This could point to a massive beat for tomorrow's NFP report.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:45 | 4516251 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

If trend is your friend check it out.

Notice the bottoms. All eerily similar aren't they? Should expect claims to begin a rising trend.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:50 | 4516269 Eahudimac
Eahudimac's picture

This is bad, right? Obama say less people collecting unemployment is bad for the economy because there is less money in people's pockets to spend on shit. 

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 09:57 | 4516297 youngman
youngman's picture

Funny how it drops with all that BAD WEATHER....guess they didnt have snow shoes to get to the office to file....but you can do it online now...oh well..there is always next week when all those Radio Shack employees sign up


Thu, 03/06/2014 - 10:03 | 4516316 wjkins
wjkins's picture

Weather related job creation (snow shoveling) what happens when the snow melts?

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 13:12 | 4517254 SDShack
SDShack's picture

They're talking spring flooding now because of all the snow. They're already setting the table for more weather excuses to explain the "unexpected" results that are coming. That will be followed by Spring Storms (tornados), then Summer Heat. Anything to distract the sheep.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 10:37 | 4516477 markar
markar's picture

Who's left to lay off?

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 11:28 | 4516714 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

This is a good point. Over time, as the labor participation rate drops, there are fewer people left to fire, so this raw number becomes less relevant without using it in conjuction with other indicators. A ratio might better serve, as in what percentage of working people were fired. Of course, the whole numbers game is one that's adjusted to fit the agenda. Just as we made a fairly significant adjustment to GDP calculation last year, but I don't believe prior year numbers were changed, so we no longer have apples to apples in our year-over-year comparisons. No matter, because our new GDP calculationa raised new GDP numbers, so we look better year-over-year. But it's all done to bring things up to date and "more accurate" I'm sure.

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 11:49 | 4516840 Jameson18
Jameson18's picture

STAPLES EMPLOYEES. Closing 225 stores. But don't worry the economy is getting better I saw it on CNBC this morning so it must be true. They said, that car dealers are giving out sub prime car loans to people with low credit scores because the ECONOMY IS GETTING BETTER. What f'in monkey actually wrote that statement.


Thu, 03/06/2014 - 12:32 | 4517058 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Can't even join the army anymore. What are the jobs of the future... GOOGLE/FACEBOOK/TWITTER/LINKEDIN

Thu, 03/06/2014 - 12:33 | 4517071 starman
starman's picture


Thu, 03/06/2014 - 13:46 | 4517446 arby63
arby63's picture

As a small business owner myself, I clearly see chaos throughout the supply chain. I rarely find a professional at the other end of the phone.

There truly is no one left to lay off. It's a mess out there. Supply is inconsistent more than ever. Manufacturing is scared for good reason: because we are barely treading water.

It's clear to me that time is running out on this fraudulent economy

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