The Russian Perspective: "There Will Be War In Ukraine"

Tyler Durden's picture

With Ukrainians living in the Crimea region voting to join Russia, the West calling for sanctions (well some of the West), boots still on the ground, and markets apparently of the belief that all is well in the world once again, we thought the Russian perspective on the next steps was useful...

Via Sergei Markov of The Moscow Times,

The current crisis is not about Crimea. It is about the rights of Russian-speakers throughout Ukraine whom the Kremlin wants to protect from violence and discrimination. Russia does not want a military intervention in Crimea and does not want to take Crimea from Ukraine.

There is a political solution to this crisis.

First, create a coalition government in Kiev composed of all parties, including those from the east and south of the country. The current government is dominated by anti-Russian extremists from western Ukraine.

 

Second, Ukraine needs to draft a democratic constitution that has guarantees for Ukraine's Russian-speaking population that would grant official status to the Russian language and establish the principle of federalism.

 

Third, presidential and parliamentary elections must be held soon. Independent election observers must play an active role in ensuring that the elections are free and fair. There is a real danger that they will be manipulated by the neo-Nazi militants who de facto seized power in a coup.

If these democratic and peaceful solutions to the crisis in Ukraine are rejected by the opposition forces that have seized power in Kiev, I am afraid that Russia will have no other choice but to revert to military means. If the junta leaders want to avoid war, they need to adopt Moscow's peaceful and democratic proposals and adhere to them.

Those currently in power in Kiev are carrying out a political strategy that is not so much pro-European as it is anti-Russian, as evidenced by the surprisingly heavy-handed tactics the U.S. and European Union  have employed in Ukraine. In the end, a minority executed a violent coup that removed the democratically elected and legitimate president of Ukraine.

The Kremlin believes that the current Ukrainian leadership will manipulate the elections planned for May 25 to install a single leader or coalition government functioning much as former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili did in Tbilisi. A "Ukrainian Saakashvili" will unleash an even more repressive campaign of intimidation against Russian-speakers, one that over several years would stoke anti-Russia hysteria among the general population.

After that, Kiev may evict Russia's Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol and purge Crimea of any Russian influence. Ukraine could easily become a radicalized, anti-Russian state, at which point Kiev will fabricate a pretext to justify taking subversive action against Moscow. This looks especially likely considering that ruling coalition members from the neo-fascist Svoboda and Right Sector parties have already made territorial claims against Russia. They could easily send their army of activists to Russia to join local separatists and foment rebellion in the North Caucasus and other unstable regions in Russia. In addition, Russia's opposition movement will surely want to use the successful experience and technology of the Euromaidan protests and, with the help and financial support of the West, try to carry out their own revolution in Moscow. The goal: to remove President Vladimir Putin from power and install a puppet leadership that will sell Russia's strategic interests out to the West in the same way former President Boris Yeltsin did in the 1990s.

The official census puts the Russian minority in Ukraine at 16 percent of the total population, although that number was falsified. The actual number is closer to 25 percent. Surveys indicate that 45 percent of the country's population speak Russian at home, 45 percent speak Ukrainian and 10 percent speak both languages. In the most recent Gallup survey, when asked in which language they would like to be polled, 83 percent of respondents chose Russian. Taking into account the rural population in western and central Ukraine, about 75 percent of the people, probably speak Russian. Of that 75 percent, only about 10 percent are those in Kiev and a few other major cities who supported the protests. This means that only 35 percent of the population are attempting to impose its will on the remaining 65 percent, using a violent coup to achieve their goals.

Putin made the right decision: He did not to wait for that attack and took preventative measures. Many in the West say the Kremlin's reactions were paranoiac, but Germany's Jews also thought the same of leaving the country in 1934. Most of them chose to believe they were safe and remained in Germany even after Hitler came to power. The infamous Kristallnacht took place five years later, one of the first early chapters in the "Final Solution." Similarly, just four years remain until Russia's presidential election in 2018, and there is a strong risk that subversive forces within and outside Russia will try to overthrow Putin, in part using their new foothold in Ukraine.

Will there be war in Ukraine? I am afraid so. After all, the extremists who seized power in Kiev want to see a bloodbath. Only fear for their own lives might stop them from inciting such a conflict. Russia is prepared to move its forces into southern and eastern Ukraine if repressive measures are used against the Russian-speaking population or if a military intervention occurs. Russia will not annex Crimea. It has enough territory already. At the same time, however, it will also not stand by passively while Russophobic and neo-Nazi gangs hold the people of Crimea, Kharkiv and Donetsk at their mercy.

 

Or out another way:

If the extremists who seized power in Kiev do not accept Russia's democratic proposals, Russia will likely be forced to revert to military means to solve the crisis in Ukraine.

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Oldballplayer's picture

Well then.  There you have it.

Occident Mortal's picture

The ONLY thing Obama and Kerry can do that would put any pressure on Russia is to approve Keystone XL.

But they won't.

SWRichmond's picture

Does this mean the terrorist threat doesn't carry establishment water anymore?  New Cold War?

Or is this another threat to be added to the already-long list?  War on poverty, war on drugs, war on terror, war on anyone who doesn't love Western central banking?

Is the hunt for collaborators about to expand?

Obama is more Stalinist than Putin.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

War in or for the Ukraine?  No, I doubt it.  NO ONE in the West would help.

Ukraine is on its own.  And they should be careful how they treat their Russian speakers.

Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Looks like I picked a bad weekend to stop snorting wood glue.

SWRichmond's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_ZG6tRGMYk

All summer they drove us back through the Ukraine
Smolensk and Viasma soon fell
By Autumn we stood with our backs to the town of Orel
Closer and closer to Moscow they come
Riding the wind like a bell
General Guderian stands at the crest of the hill

Winter brought with it the rains, oceans of mud filled the roads
Gluing the tracks of their tanks to the ground, while the skies filled with snow

And all that I ever
Was able to see
The fire in the air, glowing red
Silhouetting the snow on the breeze

prmths2's picture

I thought I recognized Al Stewart. My favorites on that album were Post World War II Blues and Last Day of June, 1934. Thanks for sparking the memory.

nowhereman's picture

Wasn't that Chris Deburg

Pure Evil's picture

 

 

"In the end, a minority executed a violent coup that removed the democratically elected and legitimate president..."

 

Does 1963 ring a bell?

Muppet Pimp's picture

I call bullshit.  There is a red line or maybe call it a pink patch where if Vlad pushes his luck, there will be no more unemployment problems in the EU.

Furthermore, the optics of the German side meetings with Russia will look a whole lot different if the march continues on.  A whole lot different.

Anusocracy's picture

How's uranium doing?

If the Ukraine outcome doesn't satisfy Russia, the least they will do is abandon the arms treaties.

Mister Kitty's picture

The Ukraine isn't America's problem.  Let the Euro-trash deal with their own backyard.  Bitches.

Independent's picture

How gullible are these Ukrainian dupes that went to the square..

"In Kyiv late Thursday, a sombre crowd on Independence Square alternately fretted and fumed at both the speed and manner in which the Crimean question was being forced upon them.
Beset by financial crisis and braced for a wave of bad economic news as their new government readies to acquiesce to unpopular reforms as a condition of international financial rescue, many Ukrainians described the situation in Crimea as one crisis too many.
“I feel sick. I could cry. I joined the Maidan to stand against corruption, not to push against Russians or push Crimea away,” said Katrina Yehorenko, one among thousands who strode the charred square Thursday, absorbing and sharing the day’s news.

“We love Crimea. Our problems, their problems. They are the same. We are the same.”

Yeah so they stood in the square for a right wing neo nazi illegitimate government because she couldnt wait three months for elections to vote out the corruption.  What kind of people does she think she will get with Tymoshenko who was a corrupt pro EU monster now in charge again with her party goons.  Now she lost Crimea ahhhh.  Listen Katrina Yehorenko go CRY ME A RIVER OF TEARS you impressionabe young F**K with your little Maidan T shirt and your stupid little flags painted on your cheeks and tits.  You got screwed big time already by the EU and losing Crimea which was never yours to begin with is JUST THE START, hope you can give good blow jobs so you can earn some money to pay your huge gas bills and increased food bills.  I hear they like Ukraine girls in Brussels and Tel Aviv, lots of pricks needs oral massages.  I think your name Yehorenko is ironic 'You'whore' what did you get yourself 'into'

Yushenko was an elected leader that got them the best deal, they had 30% savings on gas, open market with Russia and place to sell their goods the Euros dont want, they could of kept their farmland and Crimea and made money off the lease of the base (90 million dollars a year).  Now an illegal coup lost them Crimea, their gas bills double, food prices will go through the roof, corruption will be more rampant because now the Euros want a cut of Ukraine and they will take flesh literally and figuratively.  Wait till IMF and Goldman Sachs come in an manipulate markets on every commodity, doubling prices through warehousing products and metals and so on and so on. Just like they have done in Serbia and Romania. Not only that but with multinational oil companies fracking your heartland expect your water quality to go to carcinogenic status.  Thank the lord Crimea got away from your fate. A beautiful land, the Pearl of the Black Sea, may she be as she always was safe from filthy EU Hands, Praise the Lord, Amen.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDCt03sFdvg

Manthong's picture

Although it might be a rough ride for a lot of innocents and dupes in Kiev (and worse for the bad guys), Ukraine could well be spared from becoming a Troika whore like Greece.

The old KGB guy might rise above himself by cleansing, then releasing Ukraine.

Hephaestus's picture

 

 

If he did that it would absolutley make him BadAss in my book. Can you imagine the heart attack Goldaman & JP Morgan would have if Russia and China started speading freedom (from bankers) for real? OMG!?!

Hephaestus's picture

Wow nobody wants Ukraine to elect its own govt without the usual crew screwing with it.

Independent's picture

Also why was the dumb broad not storming the parliment when the neo nazis passed laws outlawing Russian as a spoken language if she is the same as the Russians, "They are the same, we are the same." LOL you dumbs**t.  Why didnt you stay with Mother Russia if you we are the same and we have the same problems of the EU and USA wanting to rip us off of natural resources, box us in, and split us up.  You made your bed now lie in it, we are RUS be we gave you a chance and you are grown up and made your decision even though we warned you and we went out of our way to give you a phenomenal deal.  Now you are Slaves Again to the EU like you were to the Crimean Tatars after they invaded Crimea, read about the Fates of the Captives in this wiki link about half way down the article

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean-Nogai_raids_into_East_Slavic_lands

Some dipsh*ts never learn.

 

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

 

Free Vera Brezhneva!!!!

 

From Ukraine with love.....via Nepal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTYRtmK-EdU&feature=related

Independent's picture

Nice...Kind of like a Slavic Shakeera

AldousHuxley's picture

Ukraine is nobody's business, but Crimea is a strategically located locale where Russia showcases her power.

Ukraine happens to have 2 super powers fight in their backyard. But that's how it has always been.

Big players use pawns and divy up the winnings to display power.

 

Losers are the ones who depend on the superpowers for protection.

 

USA and USSR will now have an excuse to sell Ukraineans some outdated weapons to fund their own military industrial complex.

matrix2012's picture

"USA and USSR will now have an excuse to sell Ukraineans some outdated weapons to fund their own military industrial complex."

 

AldousHuxley, I feel compelled to correct your lines, there is NO more USSR, no more the bankster propped Bolshevik rulers ... it's soooo Cold War...

I believe you did instead mean its successor, the USSA vis-à-vis the Russia Federation!


And please do not ignore the CULTURAL and LANGUAGE affinities in the geopolitics equation; the NWO globalists may very hardly push us into believing and adopting ONE unified global culture and taste, but let me tell you the real life is unlike that at all--we, the human being, have our own cultural and taste diversities!!

matrix2012's picture

"The Ukraine isn't America's problem.  Let the Euro-trash deal with their own backyard.  Bitches."

 

And you do hope that the ZOG's Masters through CFR and Soros Fund will write OFF their at least $5 BILLION "investment" there?

Many heads will down if so... among other Nuland's head too for the silly "Fuck the EU" curse...

 

LOL

disabledvet's picture

Chemists discover new element! "Ukranium"....says "stay out but never leave."

StychoKiller's picture

Ukranium, the atoms keep splitting then getting back together again, over and over...

silvermail's picture

When the Germans were reunited, the whole of Europe applauded.
But when Russians want reunited, Europe and US to spit bile.

Normalcy Bias's picture

Be very careful with that Elmer's, Bud. It seems harmless at first, but before you know it, you'll be hearing faces melt. Strong stuff...

Ar-Pharazôn's picture

looks like i picked the right weekend to START sniffing glue.

 

fixed it for ya :)

aVileRat's picture

So, when are we going to see the 'spring time for Putin' Broadway production ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHmYIo7bcUw

 

matrix2012's picture

@ Rat

"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHmYIo7bcUw" - "Springtime for Hitler"

 

Ironically the today's Hitler is in Tel Aviv... or some nutheads may insist that he's in Jerusalem instead!

LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Vlad will drink Vokda - Obama will drink Kool Aid

Ukraine crisis: Does Russia have a case?

snip

 

Under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the US, Russia, Ukraine and the UK agreed not to threaten or use force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. They also pledged never to use economic coercion to subordinate Ukraine to their own interest.

Soul Glow's picture

Russia has military bases in Ukraine.  They aren't invading, they are just protecting their assets.  If the Okinawa prefecture had the same turmoil that is happening in the Cremia, the US MIC would put up a front for sure.

Tortfeasor's picture

Is that why the Russians have the Ukrainian bases surrounded?

Oldballplayer's picture

We won't do anything. Until we see tanks rolling over people.

The optics will drive this.

They are white people. That will make a difference.

Tall Tom's picture

War in or for the Ukraine?  No, I doubt it.  NO ONE in the West would help. Ukraine is on its own.

 

DoChenRollongBearing...Unfortunately I think that you may be mistaken.

 

Something happened today that makes me think that this will turn out as a USA-Russian War.

 

A RUSSIAN Anti Submarine Warfare Ship was sunk in a Harbor Channel. Now the West Friendly Ukranians claim that the Russians scuttled their own ship to bottle up the "Ukranian Naval Fleet".

 

What if that report is not entirely accurate?

 

Let's play a game, "Connect the Dots". Let's see what kind of picture emerges.

 

What do we know?

 

The United States CIA goes into the Ukraine with the INTENT on toppling the Government.

The United States Government covers up the fact that the Sniper Attacks were done by "friendlies" and not the Ukranian Government.

(Just who were the snipers??? Who are amongst the most elite sinpers in the World?)

 

Now we get an Russian Anti Submarine Warship (ASW) sunk in the middle of the Channel.

 

(That is what the Japanese were doing at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, while they were attempting to sink the US Battleship Nevada which had built up a head of steam and was underway... If the Japanese Imperial Navy Air Forces had sunk her in the Deep Water Channel then it would have bottled up Pearl Harbor rendering it unusable.)

 

So let's speculate...

 

What if there was a United States Navy Attack Nuclear Submarine in that harbor?

What if a Seal Team, originating from that Submarine, was the elite sniper team that was used to kill the civilians?

What if the Captain of that Nuclear Sub saw a Russian Anti Submarine Warship approaching and did not have time to escape and evade? Will he surface and surrender his submarine?

 

The sniper attacks, if carried out by a US Navy Seal Team, is an act of War. The presence of a US Navy Nuclear Submarine in that harbor, if it was there, is an act of War.

 

Will he surface and surrender his Submarine? What would you do if you were the Captain of that "hypothetical" US Navy Nuclear Submarine?

 

If the Russian ASW detects your presence, and in Shallow Water that is almost a CERTAINTY, then there is not any Deep Water in which to hide that Submarine. In fact if that detection happened then your Ship will be destroyed by Depth Charges if you did not surface, surrender, and be boarded.

 

If you surrender your vessel then that gives Russia a pretext for War.

 

So you have no other alternative but to attack and sink the threat.

 

AND EVEN IF NONE OF THIS SPECULATION IS FACTUAL THEN THAT SUNK ASW GIVES RUSSIA A FALSE FLAG PRETEXT FOR INVADING THE UKRAINE AND GOING TO WAR AGAINST THE USA.

 

And they can sell this story to their population and their population will buy into it as much as the USA population bought into the Iraq and Afghanistan unjustified invasions.

 

Can you connect the dots?

 

 

ProtectiveFather's picture

Ease up, man. Russia towed the ship from a junk yard and sunk it. It wasn't there as an active part of the fleet and then sunk. Some homework is in order. There is no "false flag pretext."

Tall Tom's picture

If ithere is a US Nuclear Sub in that harbor then it is quite trapped.

 

Enjoy it. I am.

 

(I do not believe half of what I read in the Media. I suggest that you do not either.)

Element's picture

Not to mention that the Russians also have permanent passive hydrophone networks and Helix equipped with active dipping sonars, i.e. they'll know if a fish farted near Kersh Strait or Sevastopol, this ain't the movies.

supermaxedout's picture

Maybe in a few weeks Ukraine is burning. Then it will be like Syria except the territories secured by Russia prior to the start of the war.

There will be war because the US has decided it needs to destabilize Europe otherwise Europe is lost for them. The Ukraine is going to serve as an example.  Europe needs the US for protection from the evil Russia. That is going to be the policy. At least this is what they are trying to do. Economically Europe is on a much better path compared to a few years ago - in contrast to the US.  Now the US plays its last card.

 

FreedomGuy's picture

It does not matter how Ukraine treats it's Russian "speakers". It only matters what Putin says the Ukrainians are doing.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Crimea and eastern Ukraine are still strategically important.

US wants to be able to shoot down possible Russian missiles before the warheads separate from the launch vehicle (MIRV), hence the need to be on Russia's doorstep (and between Russia and Europe).

Russia wants a buffer, and guaranteed access to a year long warm water port.  Sebastopol, rather than St Petersburg, Arkangelsk, Vladivostok, etc.

Winston Churchill's picture

The US has always wanted a decapitation first strike capability against the USSR,  now

Russia..

This is what this is all about,not a defensive shield,thats for the stragglers in a counter strike

not taken out byn that first strike.

Which is why if pushed, the nukes will be unleashed by Russia.

Realpolitik 101.

jonjon831983's picture

Remember (lol, as if we were there [depending on ages of people on ZH]) when nukes were placed in Turkey and how pissed were the Soviets?

 

Now with Ukraine that border would be shifted even further northwards and deeper.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

It was those missiles that provoked the Russians and led to the Cuban/October crisis.

In the end, JFK and Khrushchev made a quiet (face-saving) deal that called for the removal of missiles from both places.

But they won't teach you that in most schools.

SameAsItEverWas's picture

Sheesh. There was nothing quiet about the missiles being removed from Cuba.  And while the composition of U.S. nuclear weapons stored in Turkey changed after Reagan-Gorbachev INF Treaty, we've never had nuclear-tipped missiles in the NATO "bunkers" there.  Well, mebbe they have some ALCMs or gravity bombs stored in bunkers but they'd need to be loaded onto a plane to be used.  Nuclear posture is now purely strategic, and so we got rid of all the deployed tacticals like on surface ships, though they're probably kept somewhere in some stage of partial readiness just in case we go back to the nuclear-war-fighting posture that ended in the 1980s after INF and the unilateral reductions from Bush Sr.  

Here's a primer. The "triad" is CONUS-based USAF Minuteman ICBM W-Xs in Midwest silos which can be on alert at any time, USN boomers carrying Trident D-5 W-88s, etc. which can be on alert at any time, and then there's the off-alert USAF "special weapons" stored in bunkers which would be mostly ALCMs (Ws) and gravity bombs (Bs) or what-have-yous for our nuclear-capable bombers and fighter-bombers.

Bush Sr. recalled all surface-ship-based USN nukes to shore depots leaving just the ICBMs on our boomers--not even a big aircraft carrier can have any nuclear-tipped weapons on board.  Way before that, the Dr. Strangelove-style Operation Chrome Dome of B-52s on constant alert ended in late 1960s after Thule, Greenland crash on heels of Palomares.

Turkey could have USAF weapons and/or USN weapons in land bunkers under NATO flags, but they're not launch ready unless you take the time to load them onto airplanes or ships.  So scratch the first-strike fear.

Russkies are afraid of our forward-based radars on their borders which could eventually be hooked up to missile interceptors using kinetic anti-missile defense systems to negate THEIR land-based ICBM first-strike capability.

Bottom line is that there are no launch-ready missiles with nukes at NATO bases anywhere.  Forward-stored weapons, sure, but the only first-strike capability we have outside of our Midwest silos would be the Navy boomers with MIRV'd Trident D-5 missiles and the W-88.

Fun fact not many know is that there's only one country who uses our nuclear weapons under their own go-codes and that's the U.K. per the special relationship we have with them.  While NATO troops might be guarding our off-shore weapons in NATO bunkers, NATO doesn't have the go-codes to activate them.

Dapper Dan's picture

S.A.I.E.W

You are in so much trouble!!!!