No Raise For You: Earnings Growth Drops To New Post-Lehman Lows

Tyler Durden's picture


The "good news" about today's jobs report - the weather is no longer a factor and monthly jobs can resume ramping higher. Supposedly. Because the "bad news", according to the BLS, is that  weather actually was a factor, however not for the number jobs but hours worked, which dropped to just 33.3 for production and nonsupervisory employees, down from 33.5 in january and 33.8 a year ago. So there was some weather scapegoating once again, but only for what looked out of the normal. Explainable.

Ok fine - let's ignore hourly earnings.

In order to normalize for the weekly hours worked, we decided to look at the big picture which ignores hours worked, and average hourly earnings. So we looked at average weekly earnings. In February, this number was $682.65, down from $683.74 for production and nonsupervisory employees. However, the real impact of declining wages is seen nowhere better than in the annual increase in average weekly earnings. The chart below needs no explanation: when wage growth is at 1%, or half of the Fed's inflation target, you will not get any sustained economic recovery.


And what if one looks at the average weekly earnings growth of all employees? Well, at $831.40, or an increase of just 1.3% from a year earlier, we just hit a new post-Lehman low, and a solid decline on a real basis. Five years into the "recovery", weekly earnings growth is the lowest it has been in five years!

So with no wage pressures, employers can continue hiring as many people as they want: after all they are paying them at a rate reflecting of true economic growth.

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Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:21 | 4520932 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Today really highlights for me the enormous risks associated with owning gold. Economists have shown that over long periods of time, the economy grows and stocks rise. Owning gold is a bet against this proven trend, and when the gold price falls, it falls very sharply. This is why I would recommend amateur investors stay away from gold altogether and preferably consult a financial advisor before making any investments with their hard-earned savings.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:23 | 4520947 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Now THAT'S the MDB we all know and love to hate!!! Well done sir!

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:24 | 4520948 Alpha Dog Food
Alpha Dog Food's picture

No wage growth? Tell me about it.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:27 | 4520957 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



29.5 hr/wk jobs pay less. Huh......never made the connection.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:29 | 4520966 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

But you are free(r) to pursue poetry, or blogism.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:33 | 4520978 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Just curious.

What would you do with poetry if you catch it?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:44 | 4521009 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

I reccomend you fillet it, great broiled but best "smoked".

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:49 | 4521018 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I will kiss him and love him and squeeze him, and never stroke it's hair backwards..... and I will name it George.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 11:10 | 4521134 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Stawks have only been around a few hundred years, gold has been around for thousands of years. Guess what I think will hold its value over time.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:24 | 4520950 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Hi, I'm a financial advisor.  Here's my advice: buy some fucking gold.  Physical.  Put it away somewhere safe and forget about it for a few decades.  Also, keep your freaking mouth shut about owning it.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:29 | 4520965 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Hi!  And I'm a financial genius too!  My advice is buy lots and lots and lots of guns & ammo & provisions to go along with your physical gold cause ammo is money too!

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:31 | 4520972 Alpha Dog Food
Alpha Dog Food's picture

And you will need fishing hooks, line, reel and rod when the shit hits the fan in Ukraine.


Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:37 | 4520992 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Lest we forget, the real minimum wage in this country is $2.13/hour,

  and that ain't goin' nowhere.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:32 | 4520971 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

You may very well be a financial advisor, but your accreditation is suspect. Whenever I see conflicting advice from supposed 'experts', I direct people to my article on how to make sense of complex issues of this kind:

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:36 | 4520989 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"your accreditation is suspect."

So's yours.  

By the way, welcome back.  

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:38 | 4520995 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Weak.  What's the purchasing power of that once of gold I bought just five years ago in 2008, compared with the same dollar my stocks are priced in.

Very dissappointed in your recent work, it's like you are not even trying anymore.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:41 | 4520999 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You would prefer Fonestar?  

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:46 | 4521005 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I simply ignore that fool.  Some of the previous sarcasm MDB use to write was very entertaining, and there's real value in entertainment. 

We all know you can't talk about stock prices in a market that fails to allow for true price discovery.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:48 | 4521023 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well...bitcon sounds safe if you're trying to by a cup of soon as you get your bitcon.

you might be out the five bucks though between "time of deposit" and "time of purchase."

umm..."prices surging" is price discovery. but they never surge "evenly."

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:51 | 4521027 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Who said anything about bitCON dipshit? 

Prices are whatever the Fed says they are.

isn't mark to fantasy wonderful?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 11:45 | 4521261 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

"America is a great country, you can be what you want to be".

And since companies are people too, you get

"Companies can be what they want to be", too. 

Which has led to "Mark to wet dream" accounting and a absolute 100% probability of not being able to correctly value anything anymore.


Relish in what you have built!!!

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:44 | 4521007 financialrealist
financialrealist's picture

The problem you have today is accreditation is worthless.  No one knows how and when this will end, except that IT WILL end badly. Financial advice from “experts” is pointless as they're just as clueless as the rest of us (as noted here on ZH countless times).  Long term, gold is the only thing that will matter, novice or not. 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:34 | 4520982 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

As a financial advisor ( sheesh it's hard to believe I get paid to BTFD ) I have advised every single client that they better have some precious and semi- precious metals (lead). Just in case.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:35 | 4520985 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I absolutely agree. this is a Russian Civil War. "they're just gonna order attack." There is NOTHING in Crimea. If you're Ukraine "that and no more then." If Russia starts digging in on the border they're cutting off their supply lines. can have what little ammo there is in Crimea...but there is no food there. "And now you have to feed that entire population." You would need a massive number of ships to start poring food into that "mosoleum."

They can't leave obviously. Those soldiers are in no position to attack either. And they will have to be reinforced as "300,00 angry tartars prepare for knife fighting."

Still hard to see who's winning...although my bond position did get another kick in the teeth today. I can see a lot of "economies" that can be created here however to not just keep inflation in check but "start raring up the growth engines" here too. (Capstone Energy would be my number one pick actually.)

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:41 | 4521000 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Bridge construction between Russia and Crimea is underway. Will be finished by years end they say...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:45 | 4521012 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"prepare for mighty cost over run."

I mean're not gonna supply a three hundred thousand man occupying force with a single bridge.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 11:02 | 4521087 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yeah, because we never have cost over runs in the U.S.S.A. (especially in the chicago or new york area).


Fri, 03/07/2014 - 12:51 | 4521566
Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:36 | 4520987 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!!!!  Did stocks rise in 2001?  what about 2008/2009?


How are thing's going on the Roman Stock Exchange these days?

Gee look, that Roman gold coin still has purchasing power.

Come on MDB, you can do better than that.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:42 | 4521004 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Bwhahahahaha. "Rome" had no "means of production"...let alone railroad(s)!!! They did have the Med...but they were always starving to death because they always invaded everybody.

Great roads and bridges of course. Some are still there today and in use. But they have no Great Lakes. Right now the play looks to be "long bass fishing."

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:45 | 4521014 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit.  Then by your own standards, America has no means of production either, again complete bullshit.

Both had a massive military presence that ultimately controlled numerous means of production.

The issue is what happened to their debt and liabilites.

If you really are a vet, you, of all people should know this.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:52 | 4521036 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the Governor of New York has been spending a fortune trying to get an old steel mill in Buffalo, NY up and running for years now. "They just built a new one in Arkansas" and the one the Germans put 25 billion dolares in in Alabama is for sale for one tenth that. "they produce ships for the USA Navy" et al.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:54 | 4521041 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

and I am a vet. are you a physicist? or a lawyer?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:59 | 4521068 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So what? There are already such plants up and running elsewhere in the U.S. already.

What's your point or are you simply rambling now?


Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:58 | 4521060 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

as far as "debts and liabilities" who gives a rats ass. "those are called defaults" (and DEvalues.) Rome didn't have "double entry book keeping" either...let alone "accounting." At least not in the "traditional sense." (normally they would just raise an Army and attack you. That took time the KGB Colonel is now discovering.)

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 11:00 | 4521075 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Defaults?  LMFAO!!!!

Have you been under a rock for the last ten years?  The U.S.S.A. doesn't allow defaults anymore.

Now we all know you are full of shit.


Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:45 | 4521015 ayanni
ayanni's picture

.....and a new company called "coupons dot com" rings the opening bell at the NYSE.  Fitting on a day like today.  Coupons!  Cuppens?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 11:16 | 4521151 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture


I can only conclude this is intended as sarcasm, but I down flagged you just in case.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:22 | 4520937 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

It's not what you earn, it's what you can BORROW that matters!


Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:38 | 4520994 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

or just buy. there is nothing wrong with the dollar here.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 11:43 | 4521260 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture


You claim to be a financial advisor while I am a retired chemisty teacher... So please share your erudite insight and give me an analysis of the following...

Equites are going up while production is going down.

M2 money supply has increased by roughly 1.2 trillion dollars in just the past 15 months.

Leverage in the market is at levels not see since right before the great depression.

We are experiencing budget deficits from half a trillion to a trillion dollars a year.

Work place participation is at levels not seen since the fifties.

We are out spending the next five countries on our military in preparation for the next great war which appears to be on the immediate horizon.

A thirty year track record in the marketplace used as an accounting of the future when a brief glance of human history does not show a steady rise in the market place... or have you missed the decline and fall of innumerable civilizations... For example... how is the Inca's market performing as of late... still on that steady increase?

The fact that gold has been used as money for 6000 years, while fiat currencies have an average lifespan of 40 years.

Please sir, I would love the benefit of your professional opinion.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:21 | 4520927 Martial
Martial's picture

Turn the chart upside down and repeat after me: "RECOVERY"

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:20 | 4520931 lewietheparrot
lewietheparrot's picture

This article is nothing more than troll-bait.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:22 | 4520941 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

You are nothing but a .gov stooge.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:34 | 4520981 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



He's with Cass Sunstein's truth bergade.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:25 | 4520954 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture


It worked slewie, you are back...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:22 | 4520934 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Just saw this on RanSquawk News:

Credit Suisse cuts Mexico 2014 growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.7%.

That is quite a downgrade.  Then again, GDP growth is so yesterday.  All that matters is printing.


Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:22 | 4520938 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Does this affect the prices of my stocks in some way?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:23 | 4520946 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Who needs wages when you have a printing press?




tick tock motherfuckers.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 10:24 | 4520951 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!