No Raise For You: Earnings Growth Drops To New Post-Lehman Lows

Tyler Durden's picture

The "good news" about today's jobs report - the weather is no longer a factor and monthly jobs can resume ramping higher. Supposedly. Because the "bad news", according to the BLS, is that  weather actually was a factor, however not for the number jobs but hours worked, which dropped to just 33.3 for production and nonsupervisory employees, down from 33.5 in january and 33.8 a year ago. So there was some weather scapegoating once again, but only for what looked out of the normal. Explainable.

Ok fine - let's ignore hourly earnings.

In order to normalize for the weekly hours worked, we decided to look at the big picture which ignores hours worked, and average hourly earnings. So we looked at average weekly earnings. In February, this number was $682.65, down from $683.74 for production and nonsupervisory employees. However, the real impact of declining wages is seen nowhere better than in the annual increase in average weekly earnings. The chart below needs no explanation: when wage growth is at 1%, or half of the Fed's inflation target, you will not get any sustained economic recovery.


And what if one looks at the average weekly earnings growth of all employees? Well, at $831.40, or an increase of just 1.3% from a year earlier, we just hit a new post-Lehman low, and a solid decline on a real basis. Five years into the "recovery", weekly earnings growth is the lowest it has been in five years!

So with no wage pressures, employers can continue hiring as many people as they want: after all they are paying them at a rate reflecting of true economic growth.

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MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Today really highlights for me the enormous risks associated with owning gold. Economists have shown that over long periods of time, the economy grows and stocks rise. Owning gold is a bet against this proven trend, and when the gold price falls, it falls very sharply. This is why I would recommend amateur investors stay away from gold altogether and preferably consult a financial advisor before making any investments with their hard-earned savings.

Toolshed's picture

Now THAT'S the MDB we all know and love to hate!!! Well done sir!

Alpha Dog Food's picture

No wage growth? Tell me about it.

GetZeeGold's picture



29.5 hr/wk jobs pay less. Huh......never made the connection.

TeamDepends's picture

But you are free(r) to pursue poetry, or blogism.

kaiserhoff's picture

Just curious.

What would you do with poetry if you catch it?

Winston of Oceania's picture

I reccomend you fillet it, great broiled but best "smoked".

Dr. Engali's picture

I will kiss him and love him and squeeze him, and never stroke it's hair backwards..... and I will name it George.

asteroids's picture

Stawks have only been around a few hundred years, gold has been around for thousands of years. Guess what I think will hold its value over time.

NoDebt's picture

Hi, I'm a financial advisor.  Here's my advice: buy some fucking gold.  Physical.  Put it away somewhere safe and forget about it for a few decades.  Also, keep your freaking mouth shut about owning it.

Headbanger's picture

Hi!  And I'm a financial genius too!  My advice is buy lots and lots and lots of guns & ammo & provisions to go along with your physical gold cause ammo is money too!

Alpha Dog Food's picture

And you will need fishing hooks, line, reel and rod when the shit hits the fan in Ukraine.


kaiserhoff's picture

Lest we forget, the real minimum wage in this country is $2.13/hour,

  and that ain't goin' nowhere.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

You may very well be a financial advisor, but your accreditation is suspect. Whenever I see conflicting advice from supposed 'experts', I direct people to my article on how to make sense of complex issues of this kind:

NoDebt's picture

"your accreditation is suspect."

So's yours.  

By the way, welcome back.  

LawsofPhysics's picture

Weak.  What's the purchasing power of that once of gold I bought just five years ago in 2008, compared with the same dollar my stocks are priced in.

Very dissappointed in your recent work, it's like you are not even trying anymore.

NoDebt's picture

You would prefer Fonestar?  

LawsofPhysics's picture

I simply ignore that fool.  Some of the previous sarcasm MDB use to write was very entertaining, and there's real value in entertainment. 

We all know you can't talk about stock prices in a market that fails to allow for true price discovery.

disabledvet's picture

well...bitcon sounds safe if you're trying to by a cup of soon as you get your bitcon.

you might be out the five bucks though between "time of deposit" and "time of purchase."

umm..."prices surging" is price discovery. but they never surge "evenly."

LawsofPhysics's picture

Who said anything about bitCON dipshit? 

Prices are whatever the Fed says they are.

isn't mark to fantasy wonderful?

RaceToTheBottom's picture

"America is a great country, you can be what you want to be".

And since companies are people too, you get

"Companies can be what they want to be", too. 

Which has led to "Mark to wet dream" accounting and a absolute 100% probability of not being able to correctly value anything anymore.


Relish in what you have built!!!

financialrealist's picture

The problem you have today is accreditation is worthless.  No one knows how and when this will end, except that IT WILL end badly. Financial advice from “experts” is pointless as they're just as clueless as the rest of us (as noted here on ZH countless times).  Long term, gold is the only thing that will matter, novice or not. 

Dr. Engali's picture

As a financial advisor ( sheesh it's hard to believe I get paid to BTFD ) I have advised every single client that they better have some precious and semi- precious metals (lead). Just in case.

disabledvet's picture

I absolutely agree. this is a Russian Civil War. "they're just gonna order attack." There is NOTHING in Crimea. If you're Ukraine "that and no more then." If Russia starts digging in on the border they're cutting off their supply lines. can have what little ammo there is in Crimea...but there is no food there. "And now you have to feed that entire population." You would need a massive number of ships to start poring food into that "mosoleum."

They can't leave obviously. Those soldiers are in no position to attack either. And they will have to be reinforced as "300,00 angry tartars prepare for knife fighting."

Still hard to see who's winning...although my bond position did get another kick in the teeth today. I can see a lot of "economies" that can be created here however to not just keep inflation in check but "start raring up the growth engines" here too. (Capstone Energy would be my number one pick actually.)

Winston of Oceania's picture

Bridge construction between Russia and Crimea is underway. Will be finished by years end they say...

disabledvet's picture

"prepare for mighty cost over run."

I mean're not gonna supply a three hundred thousand man occupying force with a single bridge.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yeah, because we never have cost over runs in the U.S.S.A. (especially in the chicago or new york area).


LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!!!!  Did stocks rise in 2001?  what about 2008/2009?


How are thing's going on the Roman Stock Exchange these days?

Gee look, that Roman gold coin still has purchasing power.

Come on MDB, you can do better than that.

disabledvet's picture

Bwhahahahaha. "Rome" had no "means of production"...let alone railroad(s)!!! They did have the Med...but they were always starving to death because they always invaded everybody.

Great roads and bridges of course. Some are still there today and in use. But they have no Great Lakes. Right now the play looks to be "long bass fishing."

LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit.  Then by your own standards, America has no means of production either, again complete bullshit.

Both had a massive military presence that ultimately controlled numerous means of production.

The issue is what happened to their debt and liabilites.

If you really are a vet, you, of all people should know this.

disabledvet's picture

the Governor of New York has been spending a fortune trying to get an old steel mill in Buffalo, NY up and running for years now. "They just built a new one in Arkansas" and the one the Germans put 25 billion dolares in in Alabama is for sale for one tenth that. "they produce ships for the USA Navy" et al.

disabledvet's picture

and I am a vet. are you a physicist? or a lawyer?

LawsofPhysics's picture

So what? There are already such plants up and running elsewhere in the U.S. already.

What's your point or are you simply rambling now?


disabledvet's picture

as far as "debts and liabilities" who gives a rats ass. "those are called defaults" (and DEvalues.) Rome didn't have "double entry book keeping" either...let alone "accounting." At least not in the "traditional sense." (normally they would just raise an Army and attack you. That took time the KGB Colonel is now discovering.)

LawsofPhysics's picture

Defaults?  LMFAO!!!!

Have you been under a rock for the last ten years?  The U.S.S.A. doesn't allow defaults anymore.

Now we all know you are full of shit.


ayanni's picture

.....and a new company called "coupons dot com" rings the opening bell at the NYSE.  Fitting on a day like today.  Coupons!  Cuppens?

Lordflin's picture


I can only conclude this is intended as sarcasm, but I down flagged you just in case.

Hippocratic Oaf's picture

It's not what you earn, it's what you can BORROW that matters!


disabledvet's picture

or just buy. there is nothing wrong with the dollar here.

Lordflin's picture


You claim to be a financial advisor while I am a retired chemisty teacher... So please share your erudite insight and give me an analysis of the following...

Equites are going up while production is going down.

M2 money supply has increased by roughly 1.2 trillion dollars in just the past 15 months.

Leverage in the market is at levels not see since right before the great depression.

We are experiencing budget deficits from half a trillion to a trillion dollars a year.

Work place participation is at levels not seen since the fifties.

We are out spending the next five countries on our military in preparation for the next great war which appears to be on the immediate horizon.

A thirty year track record in the marketplace used as an accounting of the future when a brief glance of human history does not show a steady rise in the market place... or have you missed the decline and fall of innumerable civilizations... For example... how is the Inca's market performing as of late... still on that steady increase?

The fact that gold has been used as money for 6000 years, while fiat currencies have an average lifespan of 40 years.

Please sir, I would love the benefit of your professional opinion.

Martial's picture

Turn the chart upside down and repeat after me: "RECOVERY"

lewietheparrot's picture

This article is nothing more than troll-bait.

Toolshed's picture

You are nothing but a .gov stooge.

GetZeeGold's picture



He's with Cass Sunstein's truth bergade.

John Law Lives's picture

Just saw this on RanSquawk News:

Credit Suisse cuts Mexico 2014 growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.7%.

That is quite a downgrade.  Then again, GDP growth is so yesterday.  All that matters is printing.


NoDebt's picture

Does this affect the prices of my stocks in some way?

LawsofPhysics's picture

Who needs wages when you have a printing press?




tick tock motherfuckers.

Sudden Debt's picture