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Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record
Plenty of excuses out there for this evening's collosal miss in Chinese exports (-18.1% YoY vs an expectation of a 7.5% rise) mainly based on timing issues over the Lunar New Year (but didn't the 45 economists who forecast this data know the dates before they forecast?) This is a 6-sigma miss and plunges China's trade balance to its biggest miss on record and 2nd largest deficit on record. Combining Jan and Feb data (i.e. smoothing over the holiday), exports are still down 1.6% YoY - not good for the much-heralded global recovery. Exports to the rest of the BRICs were all down over 20% but no there is no contagion from an emerging market crisis.
Even when the trade deficit was last this large, economists were more accurate - this is the biggest miss on record...
Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad...
- *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM
- *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM
and non-seaonally-adjusted
- *CHINA'S FEB. EXPORTS FALL 18.1% FROM YEAR EARLIER (vs +7.5% expectations)
The excuse...
"The Spring Festival factor caused sharp fluctuations in the monthly growth rate as well as the monthly deficit," Customs said in a statement accompanying the data.
Chinese traders followed their "business habit" of bringing forward exports ahead of the holiday, and focusing on imports immediately afterwards, it added.
But, our simple question is - didn't they already know this when applying their forecasts? If so - then why a 6-standard-deviation miss?
At least they didn't blame the weather?!!
It seems the massive imports of copper - to act as collateral for all the shadow banking loans - also did not help as imports surged...
*CHINA JAN.-FEB. COPPER, PRODUCT IMPORTS 915,000 TONS
All that apparent demand and yet the price is collapsing - not good for the credit unwind
And what does it say about the US that our trade balance with China collapsed MoM...
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perfect timing re: Ukraine...
Confucius say:
"He who relies most on making & selling discretionary goods during boom times suffer most when sour economy & stagnant and declining real wages lead to gloom times."
Bernanke, Kuroda-san, Draghi, the PBoC, and the rest of central banker wankers BROKE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. Sit back & enjoy the fireworks to follow.
SO MANY people & entities paid way too much for mispriced assets over the last 5 years that it is positively EPIC.
And hundreds of massive, multinational corporations that invested TRILLIONS in China over the last 20 years in the form of plants, factories, R&D centers, and other caped begin to literally fret...
Confucious says, "Eat shit and die, Uncle Whitey." Bitches.
Whether the weather or not the weather is whether the weather has a weather effect upon weather circumstances wither weathers effects when weathers withers the will whether it is weather or not.
Well there you have it.
Steve LIESman says it may be bad weather for the next several years.........
So far in 2014 we are having a great year selling our bearings and hub & bearing assemblies from China. Very few problems and the price is very right.
Japanese pieces cost over twice as much. People here in Peru (we are visiting our company) are poor. Price matters more than in America.
Peru`s economy seems to be hanging in there too, unlike Brazil which I hear is doing porrly.
Nice try Tyler. Is Bonsai out ill?
That’s not a real chart of the Chinese Trade Imbalance. That’s a copy of Barry's EKG taken by a cardiologist.
So let me get this straight. Economists were expecting +7.5% depite the fact that EVERY DAMNED YEAR on that chart has a strong down-dip to start the year? Go on and look at it. Every year starts with a dip (February)- some big, some small, but always down.
Confused says: Weather the [whether seen or invincible] storm, bro.
As predicted / planned whether you accept or not…And it in-come fast and faster…
Those wave lightly, weather up; and those anchor, weather down.
Whether you question everything, believe nothing, or not.
Is that why the shelves are 1/2 empty around here? I did'nt miss that, and those empty shelves are prime real estate too.
Who can afford to shop at Walmart anymore?
You should see the number of Mercedes Benz and BMW's in my local Dollar Tree parking lot.
Don’t they understand that it’s the polar vortex, the snow, the Great Lakes and Niagara Falls freezing over from global warming, er, man-induced climate change that is responsible for this?
Just ask Algore or most any Hollywood celebrity.
So don’t exhale.. that adds more CO2 to the problem
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/great-lakes-ice-cover-record-march-20140305
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deep-freeze/niagara-falls-stuns-sub-freezing-temps-n43186
this says it all:
http://www.gocomics.com/pricklycity/2014/03/02#mutable_1125934
That shit sounds bullish to me!!!! What the fuck should I buy on Monday!!!! Overpriced garbage.. oh hell yeah!
Dammit, Knuckles, now I'm all confused. All I really wanted to know was if the rain in Spain fell mainly in the plain!
Sorry DoChen, I don't buy Chinese bearings because they are of very uneven quality. It seems that anytime that I use Chinky bearings they fail prematurely, thus costing me far more than the savings on price alone.
I do not trust their alloys and their heat treatment and just about everything else so I pay up for the reliable stuff.
++++++++++++
Try wheel hubs with unreplaceable bearings. The chinese go 40,000 miles and the US/Japanese go 100,000. The biggest laugh on the consumer side is buying cheap Chinese brake rotors versus USA/Canadian made castings. Got rust and intergranular corrosion with big failures?
I can attest. I have fallen victim. The ABS sensor was bad from the beginning and they were shot after 20k miles. Stupid "ValuCraft" got me again. The Timkens have been on for 150k miles now, no problem, which is good because I'm pretty sure the car is so worn out that if you tried to replace them again the axel would crumble.
C'mon Tapeworm; you obviously want to be doing what the peruvians are doing. They are well known for their financial decision-making abilities. Whenever I have a financial quandry, I just look at my WWPD bracelet and it shows me the way. I even have two llamas in my backyard (for when my bearings fail).
I had a German friend who worked for bosch in China and said that they could never get high quality metals they needed for making diesel engine injectors.
Peru will not last long, Chile is falling fast with the layoffs of mining due to the loss of Chinese export of copper and the severe drought. Argentina has fallen and Brazil still in drought along with the collapse in trade with EU and China. Living in Chile for 1/2 the year I never thought this would happen until the copper ran out.
In terms of quality i wonder how they fare over the longer term DoChen in heavy industrial applications?
I hear you guys re Chinese bearings, they vary a lot in quality. We had our lumps selling other Chinese in years gone by. Our current supplier is good enough.
Most of our sales are Korean bearings, which are great quality.
But, in Peru, many want a low price, and that's all there is to it. "Precio nada mas." If we do not offer a low priced piece, we don't make the sale in many cases. Someone else will.
Reality...
'beware of 'fair-weather friend (s)'... where, any port will do in a storm, with the exception of a chinese`teapot'
weather permitting
So slave labor selling to slave labor doesn't work?
And hundreds of massive, multinational corporations that invested TRILLIONS in China over the last 20 years in the form of plants, factories, R&D centers, and other forms of capex begin to collectively, literally quiver...
Apparently the model of the "productive class" [sic] chasing lower wages to increase profits for the productive class as an economic model has a limited lifespan.
Going galt is going mainstream.
Not sure who I am fucking...but I do know that I am horny.
No report of the lost plane on Zero Hedge tonight?
I wonder which Chinese premier was onboard?
The 777 was not lost. It was Corzined. There will be hearings and the lost lives will be explained as a non-actionable lapse of management.
technically it "disappeared." which is even scarier if you think about it. hopefully Boeing will "find their plane." Obviously the relatives are beyond heartbroken. these are "lost souls" now and "as we sleuth for Bitcoin money stolen" so hopefully we will sleuth and find these stolen missing.
Onry so many Bitcoins, so many Chinee.
Have much disappealing in common.
Prease pass MSG
They had put new engine bearings in it just before the flight , chinese i belive
Oh there is still plenty more they can squeeze out of the serfs. By the time the next generation rolls around toilet paper will be a luxury and the proles of that time will think that's the norm.
However, an odd thing will occur. Toilet paper will be know as Yellen and the anus will be known as Bernanke,
Hey buddy, can you spare a piece of Yellen....I need to wipe my Bernanke.
It will be a small victory.
My Greenspan is spewing irrational exuberance at the thought.
But now it needs some Yellen to clean up after itself.
That's good LTER. ROFL
Read '1984'. The whole plan is laid out in 150 easy reading pages.
"And if the Party said I was holding up 5 fingers and not 4, what would you say?"
"Buy, bitchez!"
Hey TIS, who cares? As long as the C suite made millions and the politicos got theirs, right?
And yet millions of morons and sheep will fight for those that gutted their future... Guess that's why they call them sheep...
Baseball wrong! Confucious say, "Man with 4 balls cannot walk!"
TruthInSunshine: Ugg remember you say global finance go "boom" very soon. Ugg interested. You explain in private message? Ugg make you "contact"?
VD, you are correct. Bullish hecho en chine bolsas de cuerpos.
let's hear it for the new reserve currency.
:)
WMM
20% bitcoin, 25% msg, 25% Yangtze River crud, 30% political rhetoric
You forgot dead pigs floating downriver.
I was trying to forget.....thanks a lot.
Enough of these charts and numbers... it's time to start killing each other...
Should be extra bullish for SPX--1900 Monday
A 6 sigma miss is one helluva Oswald. Magic bullets, baby.
My chances of having a three way with Cindy Crawford and Elle Macpherson are lookin real good right now.
Old-school hotties. Ha! That's cool though.
The deflation monster is roaring and coming closer. I know all you inflationistas can hear him now. Don't puke up your gold if it drops to 700 to 800 range That will be the time to buy more.
Gold is really just insurance. It doesn't always pay out. But never go without insurance.
Who says an inflationista can't think stock prices will fall? Or for that matter, real estate prices? Inflation concerns needed goods. This includes money (real money which is gold and silver), food, energy, rent (because owning property is idiotic when you make a loan through a bank), and clothing. You will continue, yes continue, to see prices rise in those sectors of the economy.
Stocks can fall to DJ 13k before panic sets in, and at which point Ol' Yellen will call for an increase in the insane dollar "printing" policy that was instituted 5 whole years ago.
At such a price point, unless the cost of production concomitantly falls a great deal there will likely be no physical to be had beyond a few coins coughed up here and there. The physical market will have no flow to speak of. That condition can not and will not be allowed to persist and the efforts to rectify the problem of flow will ultimately usher in a new global monetary and financial system.
Next week: A new high-speed rail project, a few more airports, and mo-o-o-a-a-r reverse repo!
I put my shorts back on Wednesday and over this weekend. Sunday night should be Confuciusly interesting.
It's still a little too cold to wear shorts around here. We still have polar vortex remnants.
better cover before the usual 6-8 am PPT ramp job, if you can
It was too smoggy.........
Good time to look at buying copper.
Stockpiling copper? Who the fuck do they think they are - JPM?
Considering they bought JPM headquarters in NY for half price, I'd say yes.
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2014
At least for the US, those numbers seem to be off by quite a bit, calling into question the rest of the data. It's also pretty meaningless, as there's always a low month for China. Last year it was in March, this year it's in February.
This was a REALLY LOW month as measured in standard deviations.
More than anything it shows massive volatility in the world's largest growing economy - and by largest growing I am being facetious. If there is another bad report it is all down hill for those who thought growth would continue.
Even a second bad month, while uncommon, is not a sign of anything. If you see a third month, that's meaningful.
Considering the good data is highly manipulated, I expect a collapse any month.
OT/speaking of china: http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html
Looks like they lost an entire Boeing 777-200 enroute to China. First major operational loss of a 777 in its history of 20 years, the San Fran crash being the biggest accident before this and due to pilot error. There's confirmation the crash beacons have activated in the ociean about 120 miles offshore.
China must be planning on making a shit ton of pennies.
US pennies (since 1982) are 97.5% zinc, just 2.5% copper. http://www.coinflation.com/ We`ve fallen a long way when we had real metal in our coins...
1933 we lost our gold.
1965 we lost our silver.
1982 we lost our copper.
What´s next, plastic?
We lose even paper and go plastic. The UK and Canada have plans in place to do so.
No one can buy or sell unless he has the mark of the beast.
These guys can't even buy, cause they owe so much debt and they have no way to pay it back.
Very fitting wouldn't it be....petro dollar actually made out of plastic....
Yes, presently no more paper. Canada is plastic bills. All 1c pennies are removed from the system as well.
Do Chen, we're already on steel, I'll take your zinc :)
Next aluminium ... much further down the line ... paper (oh, we've already sunk to this level), bitcoin, litecoin, dogecoin, dogshit coin, eatshit coin and then you die!
Sounds fun!
they are already redesigning things to use less plastic
The currency is already digital, they don't bother to print the pretend currency anymore.
Compressed toilet paper.
That's a very jagged index so it's no six-sigma miss, maybe three, but with that kind of volatility sigma don't mean crap.
They use the same accounting firms worldwide!
Secret book of excuses...bet you know three at least.
Holiday, weather....nail guns.
As Larry Kudlow says, "profits are the mothers milk to capitalism", unitl I am fired for some Aussie broad with big hooters...
Did they fire ol' cocaine and hookers Larry for Mandy? I'd say that's an upgarde. I hadn't seen Kudlow give good advice since the crash.
Larry is "retiring" from CNBC.
The times, they are a change'n.
Yea, and he's on the Mark Haines retirement plan too.
He does a good job of holding down that table and your wages at the same time though.
"And what does it say about the US that our trade balance with China collapsed MoM..."
Notwithstanding the visible slowdown, perhaps this is why the Yuan has been devaluing relative to the dollar.
Currency wars indeed.
Must be the polar vortex... a little more FED stimulus for the top 1% and everything will be okay.
Shortly we will see a surge in the sales of mens and womens diapers in China. I think they ate too much hubris.
had to post again Boris my brother,
Boris seeing not the picture enough big!
It currency and economic and political and religious war! US foreign policy start fire in countries many these years what for you can ask? Scared little country of other empire to take shape! Middle East empire could big Islam hate interest on money loan so jrewish would be like crazy against competition for money loaning skimming middlemen.
Euroconflictunity only 12 countries must be and club med no holiday because poor hair north people get the stickler. So ussa need euro at 1.5.
The new money comes from the coldest places before and after the tropic lines. We think like Siberian Aduu to mate with slimmer women of east. New word for this empire growing is CRAMSTAN – China, Russia and Mongolia with many stans.
So pump and dump of commodities necessary would be by last stand of culling the peak problem of people. USSA feral bank has new orders to crash system after C of CRAMSTAN get big full of spending money on things that are raw.
Sure time they take to arrange tracer currency new that has no paper needed.
>>>>>>Sure time they take to arrange tracer currency new that has no paper needed.
Had convo w/xmil splosives xpert fri on that very thing among other topix frequently discussed here. Discussion completely blew me away. One comforting thought re sandyhoax gun grab, enuf xmil will dotheJFK when it gets to the nutcuttin.
I wonder who was suicided on the plane?
Sum Ting Wong
Chief Monkey Number One discusses gold price suppression with his boss
A motherboard (MSI) and power supply (Ultra) I got recently both failed; the stuff from Taiwan and Japan were better.
Maybe China will get there, the U.S. sure isn't, we can't even make a toaster anymore.
Right about the toasters! I can't believe that the long-lasting, functional, efficient models of, say forty years ago, cannot be had. But we keep looking in vain--they all either die young, let the bread fall below the bale, or have various other failings. Oh, well, maybe it means I should avoid the carbs...
You are avoiding them in exchange for carbon, burned sugar.
You've stumbled on the little-known but oft experienced FTPR (Failed Toaster Price Ratio). This is the relationship between the usable lifespan of a toaster bought at Wallmart/Target/Sams Club related to the lowest price payable for said toaster over time.
As the price decreases over time (in constant dollar terms) there is reached a "sweet spot" wherein the lower the price that is paid is predictive of shortest lifespan attainable. Once this support line is broken the toaster may in fact fail just as soon as you get it home and use it for the first time. At that point the price of a new toaster must rise and the quality must increase to retain you as a customer. They have this all figured out with "math". And then the cycle starts anew.
Things are getting kind of crazy.
I would like to know for sure if China and Russia are taken over by Oligarchs like the US and the EU are. And if so if the oligarchs consider the National laws to use against oligarchs that have control over other terrains. Or if it is really about oligarchical control over pools of wealth independent of terrains such that globalization has rendered the National aspect unimportant. Like in the US the oligarchs and they may not be US citizens control the US Government agencies and military. Is it the same in China and in Russia?
Seems like national control over national interests still exists in China and in Russia but not in the EU and the United States. So I guess what I'm getting at is that since the US and EU has lost support of their citizens because of the take over of their governments by oligarchs does that threaten the futures of western oligarchical families more than it does in the East. And how do the western oligarchs intend to survive when they are the enemies of both their citizens and foreign nations such as Russia and China?
Seems to me that before the US would roll out the Stazi state the western oligarchs would need to have Russia and China in on their plan to rule the world beforehand.
Otherwise the Western oligarchs and the nations, resources they control will end up toast.
Max Keiser says we have returned to the de-globalization phase and I think to some extent that is correct but it can't be the Stazi NWO state othewise the West becomes fair game for the rest of the world. Nations that or under occupation do not provide much in the way of protection for oligarchs. Along with de-globalism the nations will have to return to national identity and the rule of law and order or they will not survive.
I guess I don't get it. Maybe the oligarchs are indeed still suffering from the inbreeding of generations gone by.
I appreciate your post, raising many questions about the state of the world and who are the drivers of change. My take is it has been exponentially challenged by the interconnected nature of economic imperatives that shape the dialogue whether it is bounded by nationality or by international intermediation. I have avoided the catch-all phrase, 'gobalisation' as I think it is dissembling and a tool for those who wish to gloss over the historical and very dirigiste past that seems to be prologue.
We should all applaud and support the rule of law. And we should do the same for those, however challenged, to speak for their future, without qualification, for the life they wish to lead, and like us all, may God willing, may it come to fruition.
That's a good question that is often ignored. I will tell you what, if Putin was really worried about NATO he would have placed nukes in Venezuela a long, long time ago...
In my view all the leaders of every country are simply fooling us regular people..they are putting on a show for us like the one going on in crimea right now..Putin is no nationalist.
We get that, and there is a lot more you need to know.
Well if you take a really big view of things. People are still people, with a percieved inherent need for security, stability, food, safety, etc.
There is a long enduring idea that globaly everyting society loves and trusts in will be destroyed. This will cause everyone no matter of race or nationality, to embrace a global "king to rule over them".
All that really needs to happen is for worldwide pain and suffering to endure for a time. Then people will embrace the first one to claim to make it all better or fix everything.
For me, one piece of the puzzle which really hits home, is the heights which global survielance has reached.
Bullshit! I was there in October and saw it with my own 2 eyes. Chinese 'independence' holiday ain't no joke. $100/night went to $250/night and everything sold out. Chinese economy is ridiculous.
Jeeez what if China did it on purpose? They could have told the moneychangers one number and released another! What would stop them - honest accounting!?! Barry O's face must be getting numb from all these slaps.
Deficit should qualify the Yuan for reserve currency.
It was the smog,
This is a big story and most Americans don't have a clue as they watch world markets work higher. Fast growth tends to mask flaws and weakness within a system, and China has been growing like a weed for years. To make things worse many of the investment decisions were driven by politics.
This has created massive overcapacity. Money has been poorly allocated and often shoveled into deep holes like ghost cities and bridges to nowhere. The article below looks at how and why China is now drowning in overcapacity and debt.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/china-land-of-overcapacity-and-de...
Holes like this one?
http://www.theonion.com/video/in-the-know-should-the-government-stop-dum...
When did this news come out?? Was this last night... I thought their markets are closed? Can someone let me know.
China took our jerbs! Next they will want their money back!
Time for a nuclear exchange- we exchange a few ICBMs for our old jerbs back.
Fair dinkum.
Meanwhile in Tibet (and elsewhere), the glaciers are growing... "Scientists announce “remarkable” glacier growth on Tibetan plateau that “is challenging to explain.” iceagenow.info/2014/03/glaciers-growing-tibet/
But that is, as the G-man would say, 'inconvenient'... sorry for the interruption, back to your usual scheduled economic market collapse timer... just don't forget one affects the other... and none of it is 'remarkable' if you have a clue about what's really going on.. such as EU theory, geologic history, etc.
Hey, isn't Europe China's largest export market? But Mario told me everything was OK in Europe. I don't understand...
What was the largest increase in Import?
Peter Schiff and GATA's Bill Murthy: The Real Value of Gold
It is time to listen and remind ourselves about the real value of Gold and what is coming next with all geopolitical games unfolding at the crucial levels for US Dollar and Gold markets. China is the major subject of conversation here again and Russia is already talking about the asymmetrical retaliation to the imposed by the West sanctions around the Ukraine situation. Gold manipulation can not go foreverwith China buying the record amount of Gold officially and who knows what are the real numbers in its state-level military plan to accumulate Gold for the De-Dollarisation reset?http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/peter-schiff-and-gatas-bill-murthy-r...
"All that apparent demand and yet the price is collapsing - not good for the credit unwind"
looking at the copper chart to which you refer, the jun-decd 2013 section is less steep than the jun-dec 2011 one. i don't know what happened then.
just curious.
:)