Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Plenty of excuses out there for this evening's collosal miss in Chinese exports (-18.1% YoY vs an expectation of a 7.5% rise) mainly based on timing issues over the Lunar New Year (but didn't the 45 economists who forecast this data know the dates before they forecast?) This is a 6-sigma miss and plunges China's trade balance to its biggest miss on record and 2nd largest deficit on record. Combining Jan and Feb data (i.e. smoothing over the holiday), exports are still down 1.6% YoY - not good for the much-heralded global recovery. Exports to the rest of the BRICs were all down over 20% but no there is no contagion from an emerging market crisis.

 

Even when the trade deficit was last this large, economists were more accurate - this is the biggest miss on record...

 

Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad...

  • *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM
  • *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM

and non-seaonally-adjusted

  • *CHINA'S FEB. EXPORTS FALL 18.1% FROM YEAR EARLIER (vs +7.5% expectations)

The excuse...

"The Spring Festival factor caused sharp fluctuations in the monthly growth rate as well as the monthly deficit," Customs said in a statement accompanying the data.

 

Chinese traders followed their "business habit" of bringing forward exports ahead of the holiday, and focusing on imports immediately afterwards, it added.

But, our simple question is - didn't they already know this when applying their forecasts? If so - then why a 6-standard-deviation miss?

At least they didn't blame the weather?!!

It seems the massive imports of copper - to act as collateral for all the shadow banking loans - also did not help as imports surged...

*CHINA JAN.-FEB. COPPER, PRODUCT IMPORTS 915,000 TONS

 

All that apparent demand and yet the price is collapsing - not good for the credit unwind

And what does it say about the US that our trade balance with China collapsed MoM...

 

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Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:22 | 4524029 VD
VD's picture

perfect timing re: Ukraine...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:37 | 4524040 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Confucius say:

"He who relies most on making & selling discretionary goods during boom times suffer most when sour economy & stagnant and declining real wages lead to gloom times."

Bernanke, Kuroda-san, Draghi, the PBoC, and the rest of central banker wankers BROKE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. Sit back & enjoy the fireworks to follow.

SO MANY people & entities paid way too much for mispriced assets over the last 5 years that it is positively EPIC.

And hundreds of massive, multinational corporations that invested TRILLIONS in China over the last 20 years in the form of plants, factories, R&D centers, and other caped begin to literally fret...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:38 | 4524064 The Vineyard
The Vineyard's picture

Confucious says, "Eat shit and die, Uncle Whitey."  Bitches.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:46 | 4524096 knukles
knukles's picture

Whether the weather or not the weather is whether the weather has a weather effect upon weather circumstances wither weathers effects when weathers withers the will whether it is weather or not.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:51 | 4524106 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well there you have it.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:54 | 4524114 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Steve LIESman says it may be bad weather for the next several years.........

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:06 | 4524146 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

So far in 2014 we are having a great year selling our bearings and hub & bearing assemblies from China.  Very few problems and the price is very right.

Japanese pieces cost over twice as much.  People here in Peru (we are visiting our company) are poor.  Price matters more than in America.

Peru`s economy seems to be hanging in there too, unlike Brazil which I hear is doing porrly.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 01:04 | 4524286 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Nice try Tyler. Is Bonsai out ill?

 That’s not a real chart of the Chinese Trade Imbalance. That’s a copy of Barry's EKG taken by a cardiologist.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 01:18 | 4524296 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

So let me get this straight.  Economists were expecting +7.5% depite the fact that EVERY DAMNED YEAR on that chart has a strong down-dip to start the year?  Go on and look at it.  Every year starts with a dip (February)- some big, some small, but always down.  

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 02:49 | 4524395 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Confused says: Weather the [whether seen or invincible] storm, bro.

As predicted / planned whether you accept or not…And it in-come fast and faster…

Those wave lightly, weather up; and those anchor, weather down.

Whether you question everything, believe nothing, or not.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:10 | 4524706 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

Who can afford to shop at Walmart anymore?

 

You should see the number of Mercedes Benz and BMW's in my local Dollar Tree parking lot.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 13:07 | 4525089 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Don’t they understand that it’s the polar vortex, the snow, the Great Lakes and Niagara Falls freezing over from global warming, er, man-induced climate change that is responsible for this?

Just ask Algore or most any Hollywood celebrity.

So don’t exhale.. that adds more CO2 to the problem

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/great-lakes-ice-cover-record-march-20140305

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deep-freeze/niagara-falls-stuns-sub-freezing-temps-n43186

this says it all:

http://www.gocomics.com/pricklycity/2014/03/02#mutable_1125934

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:28 | 4526293 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

That shit sounds bullish to me!!!!  What the fuck should I buy on Monday!!!!  Overpriced garbage.. oh hell yeah!

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 01:38 | 4526995 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Dammit, Knuckles, now I'm all confused. All I really wanted to know was if the rain in Spain fell mainly in the plain!

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 03:02 | 4524403 Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

Sorry DoChen, I don't buy Chinese bearings because they are of very uneven quality. It seems that anytime that I use Chinky bearings they fail prematurely, thus costing me far more than the savings on price alone.

 I do not trust their alloys and their heat treatment and just about everything else so I pay up for the reliable stuff.

++++++++++++

 Try wheel hubs with unreplaceable bearings. The chinese go 40,000 miles and the US/Japanese go 100,000. The biggest laugh on the consumer side is buying cheap Chinese brake rotors versus USA/Canadian made castings. Got rust and intergranular corrosion with big failures?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 09:59 | 4524698 sil3nc3rxr
sil3nc3rxr's picture

I can attest. I have fallen victim. The ABS sensor was bad from the beginning and they were shot after 20k miles. Stupid "ValuCraft" got me again. The Timkens have been on for 150k miles now, no problem, which is good because I'm pretty sure the car is so worn out that if you tried to replace them again the axel would crumble.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:13 | 4524716 Mrs. Haggy
Mrs. Haggy's picture

C'mon Tapeworm; you obviously want to be doing what the peruvians are doing.  They are well known for their financial decision-making abilities.  Whenever I have a financial quandry, I just look at my WWPD bracelet and it shows me the way.  I even have two llamas in my backyard (for when my bearings fail).

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:47 | 4524784 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

I had a German friend who worked for bosch in China and said that they could never get high quality metals they needed for making diesel engine injectors.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:16 | 4524725 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Peru will not last long, Chile is falling fast with the layoffs of mining due to the loss of Chinese export of copper and the severe  drought. Argentina has fallen and Brazil still in drought along with the collapse in trade with EU and China. Living in Chile for 1/2 the year I never thought this would happen until the copper ran out.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:54 | 4524802 thestarl
thestarl's picture

In terms of quality i wonder how they fare over the longer term DoChen in heavy industrial applications?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 14:38 | 4525310 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I hear you guys re Chinese bearings, they vary a lot in quality.  We had our lumps selling other Chinese in years gone by.  Our current supplier is good enough.

Most of our sales are Korean bearings, which are great quality.

But, in Peru, many want a low price, and that's all there is to it.  "Precio nada mas."  If we do not offer a low priced piece, we don't make the sale in many cases.  Someone else will.

Reality...

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 16:00 | 4525471 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

'beware of 'fair-weather friend (s)'... where, any port will do in a storm, with the exception of a chinese`teapot' 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 09:28 | 4524669 new game
new game's picture

weather permitting

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:38 | 4524065 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

So slave labor selling to slave labor doesn't work?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:40 | 4524069 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

And hundreds of massive, multinational corporations that invested TRILLIONS in China over the last 20 years in the form of plants, factories, R&D centers, and other forms of capex begin to collectively, literally quiver...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:40 | 4524077 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Apparently the model of the "productive class" [sic] chasing lower wages to increase profits for the productive class as an economic model has a limited lifespan.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:53 | 4524112 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Going galt is going mainstream. 

Not sure who I am fucking...but I do know that I am horny. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:40 | 4524241 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

No report of the lost plane on Zero Hedge tonight?

I wonder which Chinese premier was onboard?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:46 | 4524245 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

The 777 was not lost.  It was Corzined.   There will be hearings and the lost lives will be explained as a non-actionable lapse of management.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 02:10 | 4524356 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

technically it "disappeared." which is even scarier if you think about it. hopefully Boeing will "find their plane." Obviously the relatives are beyond heartbroken. these are "lost souls" now and "as we sleuth for Bitcoin money stolen" so hopefully we will sleuth and find these stolen missing.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:01 | 4524700 knukles
knukles's picture

Onry so many Bitcoins, so many Chinee.
Have much disappealing in common.

Prease pass MSG

 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 15:11 | 4525389 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

They had put new engine bearings in it just before the flight , chinese i belive

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:56 | 4524121 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Oh there is still plenty more they can squeeze out of the serfs. By the time the next generation rolls around toilet paper will be a luxury and the proles of that time will think that's the norm.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:05 | 4524137 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

However, an odd thing will occur. Toilet paper will be know as Yellen and the anus will be known as Bernanke, 

Hey buddy, can you spare a piece of Yellen....I need to wipe my Bernanke. 

It will be a small victory. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:16 | 4524168 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

My Greenspan is spewing irrational exuberance at the thought.

But now it needs some Yellen to clean up after itself.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 15:19 | 4525402 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

That's good LTER. ROFL

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 07:20 | 4524560 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Read '1984'. The whole plan is laid out in 150 easy reading pages.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 11:05 | 4524834 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

"And if the Party said I was holding up 5 fingers and not 4, what would you say?"

"Buy, bitchez!"  

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:42 | 4524079 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Hey TIS, who cares? As long as the C suite made millions and the politicos got theirs, right?

And yet millions of morons and sheep will fight for those that gutted their future... Guess that's why they call them sheep...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:39 | 4524071 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Baseball wrong! Confucious say, "Man with 4 balls cannot walk!"

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 15:49 | 4525455 UggSmash
UggSmash's picture

TruthInSunshine: Ugg remember you say global finance go "boom" very soon. Ugg interested. You explain in private message? Ugg make you "contact"? 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:47 | 4524099 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

VD, you are correct. Bullish hecho en chine bolsas de cuerpos. 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:28 | 4524037 WMM II
WMM II's picture

let's hear it for the new reserve currency.

 

 

:)

WMM

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:50 | 4524104 knukles
knukles's picture

20% bitcoin, 25% msg, 25% Yangtze River crud, 30% political rhetoric

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 01:11 | 4524290 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You forgot dead pigs floating downriver.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:19 | 4524730 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I was trying to forget.....thanks a lot.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 13:47 | 4525187 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Enough of these charts and numbers... it's time to start killing each other...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:32 | 4524049 STG5IVE
STG5IVE's picture

Should be extra bullish for SPX--1900 Monday

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:41 | 4524067 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

A 6 sigma miss is one helluva Oswald.  Magic bullets, baby.  

My chances of having a three way with Cindy Crawford and Elle Macpherson are lookin real good right now. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:27 | 4524746 Mrs. Haggy
Mrs. Haggy's picture

Old-school hotties.  Ha!  That's cool though.

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