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Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Plenty of excuses out there for this evening's collosal miss in Chinese exports (-18.1% YoY vs an expectation of a 7.5% rise) mainly based on timing issues over the Lunar New Year (but didn't the 45 economists who forecast this data know the dates before they forecast?) This is a 6-sigma miss and plunges China's trade balance to its biggest miss on record and 2nd largest deficit on record. Combining Jan and Feb data (i.e. smoothing over the holiday), exports are still down 1.6% YoY - not good for the much-heralded global recovery. Exports to the rest of the BRICs were all down over 20% but no there is no contagion from an emerging market crisis.

 

Even when the trade deficit was last this large, economists were more accurate - this is the biggest miss on record...

 

Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad...

  • *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM
  • *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM

and non-seaonally-adjusted

  • *CHINA'S FEB. EXPORTS FALL 18.1% FROM YEAR EARLIER (vs +7.5% expectations)

The excuse...

"The Spring Festival factor caused sharp fluctuations in the monthly growth rate as well as the monthly deficit," Customs said in a statement accompanying the data.

 

Chinese traders followed their "business habit" of bringing forward exports ahead of the holiday, and focusing on imports immediately afterwards, it added.

But, our simple question is - didn't they already know this when applying their forecasts? If so - then why a 6-standard-deviation miss?

At least they didn't blame the weather?!!

It seems the massive imports of copper - to act as collateral for all the shadow banking loans - also did not help as imports surged...

*CHINA JAN.-FEB. COPPER, PRODUCT IMPORTS 915,000 TONS

 

All that apparent demand and yet the price is collapsing - not good for the credit unwind

And what does it say about the US that our trade balance with China collapsed MoM...

 

 

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Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:22 | 4524029 VD
VD's picture

perfect timing re: Ukraine...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:37 | 4524040 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Confucius say:

"He who relies most on making & selling discretionary goods during boom times suffer most when sour economy & stagnant and declining real wages lead to gloom times."

Bernanke, Kuroda-san, Draghi, the PBoC, and the rest of central banker wankers BROKE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. Sit back & enjoy the fireworks to follow.

SO MANY people & entities paid way too much for mispriced assets over the last 5 years that it is positively EPIC.

And hundreds of massive, multinational corporations that invested TRILLIONS in China over the last 20 years in the form of plants, factories, R&D centers, and other caped begin to literally fret...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:38 | 4524064 The Vineyard
The Vineyard's picture

Confucious says, "Eat shit and die, Uncle Whitey."  Bitches.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:46 | 4524096 knukles
knukles's picture

Whether the weather or not the weather is whether the weather has a weather effect upon weather circumstances wither weathers effects when weathers withers the will whether it is weather or not.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:51 | 4524106 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well there you have it.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:54 | 4524114 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Steve LIESman says it may be bad weather for the next several years.........

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:06 | 4524146 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

So far in 2014 we are having a great year selling our bearings and hub & bearing assemblies from China.  Very few problems and the price is very right.

Japanese pieces cost over twice as much.  People here in Peru (we are visiting our company) are poor.  Price matters more than in America.

Peru`s economy seems to be hanging in there too, unlike Brazil which I hear is doing porrly.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 01:04 | 4524286 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Nice try Tyler. Is Bonsai out ill?

 That’s not a real chart of the Chinese Trade Imbalance. That’s a copy of Barry's EKG taken by a cardiologist.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 01:18 | 4524296 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

So let me get this straight.  Economists were expecting +7.5% depite the fact that EVERY DAMNED YEAR on that chart has a strong down-dip to start the year?  Go on and look at it.  Every year starts with a dip (February)- some big, some small, but always down.  

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 02:49 | 4524395 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Confused says: Weather the [whether seen or invincible] storm, bro.

As predicted / planned whether you accept or not…And it in-come fast and faster…

Those wave lightly, weather up; and those anchor, weather down.

Whether you question everything, believe nothing, or not.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 07:21 | 4524562 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Is that why the shelves are 1/2 empty around here? I did'nt miss that, and those empty shelves are prime real estate too.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:10 | 4524706 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

Who can afford to shop at Walmart anymore?

 

You should see the number of Mercedes Benz and BMW's in my local Dollar Tree parking lot.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 13:07 | 4525089 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Don’t they understand that it’s the polar vortex, the snow, the Great Lakes and Niagara Falls freezing over from global warming, er, man-induced climate change that is responsible for this?

Just ask Algore or most any Hollywood celebrity.

So don’t exhale.. that adds more CO2 to the problem

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/great-lakes-ice-cover-record-march-20140305

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deep-freeze/niagara-falls-stuns-sub-freezing-temps-n43186

this says it all:

http://www.gocomics.com/pricklycity/2014/03/02#mutable_1125934

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:28 | 4526293 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

That shit sounds bullish to me!!!!  What the fuck should I buy on Monday!!!!  Overpriced garbage.. oh hell yeah!

Sun, 03/09/2014 - 01:38 | 4526995 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Dammit, Knuckles, now I'm all confused. All I really wanted to know was if the rain in Spain fell mainly in the plain!

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 03:02 | 4524403 Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

Sorry DoChen, I don't buy Chinese bearings because they are of very uneven quality. It seems that anytime that I use Chinky bearings they fail prematurely, thus costing me far more than the savings on price alone.

 I do not trust their alloys and their heat treatment and just about everything else so I pay up for the reliable stuff.

++++++++++++

 Try wheel hubs with unreplaceable bearings. The chinese go 40,000 miles and the US/Japanese go 100,000. The biggest laugh on the consumer side is buying cheap Chinese brake rotors versus USA/Canadian made castings. Got rust and intergranular corrosion with big failures?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 09:59 | 4524698 sil3nc3rxr
sil3nc3rxr's picture

I can attest. I have fallen victim. The ABS sensor was bad from the beginning and they were shot after 20k miles. Stupid "ValuCraft" got me again. The Timkens have been on for 150k miles now, no problem, which is good because I'm pretty sure the car is so worn out that if you tried to replace them again the axel would crumble.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:13 | 4524716 Mrs. Haggy
Mrs. Haggy's picture

C'mon Tapeworm; you obviously want to be doing what the peruvians are doing.  They are well known for their financial decision-making abilities.  Whenever I have a financial quandry, I just look at my WWPD bracelet and it shows me the way.  I even have two llamas in my backyard (for when my bearings fail).

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:47 | 4524784 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

I had a German friend who worked for bosch in China and said that they could never get high quality metals they needed for making diesel engine injectors.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:16 | 4524725 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Peru will not last long, Chile is falling fast with the layoffs of mining due to the loss of Chinese export of copper and the severe  drought. Argentina has fallen and Brazil still in drought along with the collapse in trade with EU and China. Living in Chile for 1/2 the year I never thought this would happen until the copper ran out.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:54 | 4524802 thestarl
thestarl's picture

In terms of quality i wonder how they fare over the longer term DoChen in heavy industrial applications?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 14:38 | 4525310 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I hear you guys re Chinese bearings, they vary a lot in quality.  We had our lumps selling other Chinese in years gone by.  Our current supplier is good enough.

Most of our sales are Korean bearings, which are great quality.

But, in Peru, many want a low price, and that's all there is to it.  "Precio nada mas."  If we do not offer a low priced piece, we don't make the sale in many cases.  Someone else will.

Reality...

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 16:00 | 4525471 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

'beware of 'fair-weather friend (s)'... where, any port will do in a storm, with the exception of a chinese`teapot' 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 09:28 | 4524669 new game
new game's picture

weather permitting

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:38 | 4524065 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

So slave labor selling to slave labor doesn't work?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:40 | 4524069 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

And hundreds of massive, multinational corporations that invested TRILLIONS in China over the last 20 years in the form of plants, factories, R&D centers, and other forms of capex begin to collectively, literally quiver...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:40 | 4524077 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Apparently the model of the "productive class" [sic] chasing lower wages to increase profits for the productive class as an economic model has a limited lifespan.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:53 | 4524112 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Going galt is going mainstream. 

Not sure who I am fucking...but I do know that I am horny. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:40 | 4524241 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

No report of the lost plane on Zero Hedge tonight?

I wonder which Chinese premier was onboard?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:46 | 4524245 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

The 777 was not lost.  It was Corzined.   There will be hearings and the lost lives will be explained as a non-actionable lapse of management.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 02:10 | 4524356 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

technically it "disappeared." which is even scarier if you think about it. hopefully Boeing will "find their plane." Obviously the relatives are beyond heartbroken. these are "lost souls" now and "as we sleuth for Bitcoin money stolen" so hopefully we will sleuth and find these stolen missing.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:01 | 4524700 knukles
knukles's picture

Onry so many Bitcoins, so many Chinee.
Have much disappealing in common.

Prease pass MSG

 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 15:11 | 4525389 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

They had put new engine bearings in it just before the flight , chinese i belive

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:56 | 4524121 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Oh there is still plenty more they can squeeze out of the serfs. By the time the next generation rolls around toilet paper will be a luxury and the proles of that time will think that's the norm.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:05 | 4524137 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

However, an odd thing will occur. Toilet paper will be know as Yellen and the anus will be known as Bernanke, 

Hey buddy, can you spare a piece of Yellen....I need to wipe my Bernanke. 

It will be a small victory. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:16 | 4524168 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

My Greenspan is spewing irrational exuberance at the thought.

But now it needs some Yellen to clean up after itself.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 15:19 | 4525402 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

That's good LTER. ROFL

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 07:20 | 4524560 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Read '1984'. The whole plan is laid out in 150 easy reading pages.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 11:05 | 4524834 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

"And if the Party said I was holding up 5 fingers and not 4, what would you say?"

"Buy, bitchez!"  

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:42 | 4524079 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Hey TIS, who cares? As long as the C suite made millions and the politicos got theirs, right?

And yet millions of morons and sheep will fight for those that gutted their future... Guess that's why they call them sheep...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:39 | 4524071 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Baseball wrong! Confucious say, "Man with 4 balls cannot walk!"

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 15:49 | 4525455 UggSmash
UggSmash's picture

TruthInSunshine: Ugg remember you say global finance go "boom" very soon. Ugg interested. You explain in private message? Ugg make you "contact"? 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:47 | 4524099 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

VD, you are correct. Bullish hecho en chine bolsas de cuerpos. 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:28 | 4524037 WMM II
WMM II's picture

let's hear it for the new reserve currency.

 

 

:)

WMM

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:50 | 4524104 knukles
knukles's picture

20% bitcoin, 25% msg, 25% Yangtze River crud, 30% political rhetoric

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 01:11 | 4524290 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You forgot dead pigs floating downriver.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:19 | 4524730 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I was trying to forget.....thanks a lot.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 13:47 | 4525187 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Enough of these charts and numbers... it's time to start killing each other...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:32 | 4524049 STG5IVE
STG5IVE's picture

Should be extra bullish for SPX--1900 Monday

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:41 | 4524067 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

A 6 sigma miss is one helluva Oswald.  Magic bullets, baby.  

My chances of having a three way with Cindy Crawford and Elle Macpherson are lookin real good right now. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:27 | 4524746 Mrs. Haggy
Mrs. Haggy's picture

Old-school hotties.  Ha!  That's cool though.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:45 | 4524088 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

The deflation monster is roaring and coming closer. I know all you inflationistas can hear him now. Don't puke up your gold if it drops to 700 to 800 range That will be the time to buy more.

 

Gold is really just insurance.  It doesn't always pay out.  But never go without insurance. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:28 | 4524209 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Who says an inflationista can't think stock prices will fall?  Or for that matter, real estate prices?  Inflation concerns needed goods.  This includes money (real money which is gold and silver), food, energy, rent (because owning property is idiotic when you make a loan through a bank), and clothing.  You will continue, yes continue, to see prices rise in those sectors of the economy.

Stocks can fall to DJ 13k before panic sets in, and at which point Ol' Yellen will call for an increase in the insane dollar "printing" policy that was instituted 5 whole years ago.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 09:01 | 4524640 edwardo1
edwardo1's picture

At such a price point, unless the cost of production concomitantly falls a great deal there will likely be no physical to be had beyond a few coins coughed up here and there. The physical market will have no flow to speak of. That condition can not and will not be allowed to persist and the efforts to rectify the problem of flow will ultimately usher in a new global monetary and financial system.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:43 | 4524089 Georgia_Boy
Georgia_Boy's picture

Next week: A new high-speed rail project, a few more airports, and mo-o-o-a-a-r reverse repo!

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:44 | 4524091 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

I put my shorts back on Wednesday and over this weekend.   Sunday night should be Confuciusly interesting.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:50 | 4524103 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's still a little too cold to wear shorts around here. We still have polar vortex remnants.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 09:03 | 4524643 skwid vacuous
skwid vacuous's picture

better cover before the usual 6-8 am PPT ramp job, if you can

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:45 | 4524093 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

It was too smoggy.........

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:47 | 4524098 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Good time to look at buying copper.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:49 | 4524102 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

Stockpiling copper? Who the fuck do they think they are - JPM?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 09:53 | 4524694 1000 splendid suns
1000 splendid suns's picture

Considering they bought JPM headquarters in NY for half price, I'd say yes.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:57 | 4524124 laomei
laomei's picture

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2014

 

At least for the US, those numbers seem to be off by quite a bit, calling into question the rest of the data.  It's also pretty meaningless, as there's always a low month for China.  Last year it was in March, this year it's in February.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:00 | 4524134 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

This was a REALLY LOW month as measured in standard deviations.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:17 | 4524164 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

More than anything it shows massive volatility in the world's largest growing economy - and by largest growing I am being facetious.  If there is another bad report it is all down hill for those who thought growth would continue.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:47 | 4524256 laomei
laomei's picture

Even a second bad month, while uncommon, is not a sign of anything.  If you see a third month, that's meaningful.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:50 | 4524262 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Considering the good data is highly manipulated, I expect a collapse any month.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 23:59 | 4524129 seek
seek's picture

OT/speaking of china: http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html

Looks like they lost an entire Boeing 777-200 enroute to China. First major operational loss of a 777 in its history of 20 years, the San Fran crash being the biggest accident before this and due to pilot error. There's confirmation the crash beacons have activated in the ociean about 120 miles offshore.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:12 | 4524160 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

China must be planning on making a shit ton of pennies.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:32 | 4524218 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

US pennies (since 1982) are 97.5% zinc, just 2.5% copper.  http://www.coinflation.com/  We`ve fallen a long way when we had real metal in our coins...

1933 we lost our gold.

1965 we lost our silver.

1982 we lost our copper.

What´s next, plastic?

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:37 | 4524235 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

We lose even paper and go plastic.  The UK and Canada have plans in place to do so.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 01:30 | 4524316 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

No one can buy or sell unless he has the mark of the beast.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 07:27 | 4524566 negative rates
negative rates's picture

These guys can't even buy, cause they owe so much debt and they have no way to pay it back.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 11:19 | 4524866 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Very fitting wouldn't it be....petro dollar actually made out of plastic....

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 11:55 | 4524938 riot-police
riot-police's picture

Yes, presently no more paper. Canada is plastic bills. All 1c pennies are removed from the system as well.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 05:57 | 4524506 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Do Chen, we're already on steel, I'll take your zinc :)
Next aluminium ... much further down the line ... paper (oh, we've already sunk to this level), bitcoin, litecoin, dogecoin, dogshit coin, eatshit coin and then you die!

Sounds fun!

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 09:27 | 4524666 stant
stant's picture

they are already redesigning things to use less plastic

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:26 | 4524745 Landrew
Landrew's picture

The currency is already digital, they don't bother to print the pretend currency anymore.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 11:09 | 4524847 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

What´s next, plastic?

 

Compressed toilet paper. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:15 | 4524165 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

That's a very jagged index so it's no six-sigma miss, maybe three, but with that kind of volatility sigma don't mean crap.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:15 | 4524169 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

They use the same accounting firms worldwide! 

Secret book of excuses...bet you know three at least. 

Holiday, weather....nail guns.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:24 | 4524190 BaggerDon
BaggerDon's picture

As Larry Kudlow says, "profits are the mothers milk to capitalism", unitl I am fired for some Aussie broad with big hooters...

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:29 | 4524212 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Did they fire ol' cocaine and hookers Larry for Mandy?  I'd say that's an upgarde.  I hadn't seen Kudlow give good advice since the crash.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:32 | 4524219 Bonapartist
Bonapartist's picture

Larry is "retiring" from CNBC.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 01:17 | 4524300 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The times, they are a change'n.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 07:29 | 4524568 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yea, and he's on the Mark Haines retirement plan too.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 07:29 | 4524567 negative rates
negative rates's picture

He does a good job of holding down that table and your wages at the same time though.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:25 | 4524192 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

"And what does it say about the US that our trade balance with China collapsed MoM..."

Notwithstanding the visible slowdown, perhaps this is why the Yuan has been devaluing relative to the dollar.

Currency wars indeed.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:25 | 4524196 CulturalEngineer
CulturalEngineer's picture

Must be the polar vortex... a little more FED stimulus for the top 1% and everything will be okay.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:32 | 4524220 Fred123
Fred123's picture

Shortly we will see a surge in the sales of mens and womens diapers in China. I think they ate too much hubris.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 00:46 | 4524252 ptolemy_newit
ptolemy_newit's picture

had to post again Boris my brother,

Boris seeing not the picture enough big!

It currency and economic and political and religious war! US foreign policy start fire in countries many these years what for you can ask? Scared little country of other empire to take shape!     Middle East empire could big Islam hate interest on money loan so jrewish would be like crazy against competition for money loaning skimming middlemen.

Euroconflictunity only 12 countries must be and club med no holiday because poor hair north people get the stickler. So ussa need euro at 1.5.

The new money comes from the coldest places before and after the tropic lines.  We think like Siberian Aduu to mate with slimmer women of east.  New word for this empire growing is CRAMSTAN – China, Russia and Mongolia with many stans.

So pump and dump of commodities necessary would be by last stand of culling the peak problem of people.  USSA feral bank has new orders to crash system after C of CRAMSTAN get big full of spending money on things that are raw.

 

Sure time they take to arrange tracer currency new that has no paper needed.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 15:34 | 4525430 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

>>>>>>Sure time they take to arrange tracer currency new that has no paper needed.

Had convo w/xmil splosives xpert fri on that very thing among other topix frequently discussed here. Discussion completely blew me away. One comforting thought re sandyhoax gun grab, enuf xmil will dotheJFK when it gets to the nutcuttin.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 01:08 | 4524288 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

I wonder who was suicided on the plane?

Sum Ting Wong

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 03:19 | 4524418 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

A motherboard (MSI) and power supply (Ultra) I got recently both failed; the stuff from Taiwan and Japan were better.

Maybe China will get there, the U.S. sure isn't, we can't even make a toaster anymore.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 08:33 | 4524616 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

Right about the toasters!  I can't believe that the long-lasting, functional, efficient models of, say forty years ago, cannot be had.  But we keep looking in vain--they all either die young, let the bread fall below the bale, or have various other failings.  Oh, well, maybe it means I should avoid the carbs...

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:31 | 4524752 Landrew
Landrew's picture

You are avoiding them in exchange for carbon, burned sugar.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:55 | 4524797 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

You've stumbled on the little-known but oft experienced FTPR (Failed Toaster Price Ratio). This is the relationship between the usable lifespan of a toaster bought at Wallmart/Target/Sams Club related to the lowest price payable for said toaster over time.

As the price decreases over time (in constant dollar terms) there is reached a "sweet spot" wherein the lower the price that is paid is predictive of shortest lifespan attainable. Once this support line is broken the toaster may in fact fail just as soon as you get it home and use it for the first time. At that point the price of a new toaster must rise and the quality must increase to retain you as a customer. They have this all figured out with "math". And then the cycle starts anew.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 03:41 | 4524434 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Things are getting kind of crazy.

I would like to know for sure if China and Russia are taken over by Oligarchs like the US and the EU are. And if so if the oligarchs consider the National laws to use against oligarchs that have control over other terrains. Or if it is really about oligarchical control over pools of wealth independent of terrains such that globalization has rendered the National aspect unimportant. Like in the US the oligarchs and they may not be US citizens control the US Government agencies and military. Is it the same in China and in Russia?

Seems like national control over national interests still exists in China and in Russia but not in the EU and the United States. So I guess what I'm getting at is that since the US and EU has lost support of their citizens because of the take over of their governments by oligarchs does that threaten the futures of western oligarchical families more than it does in the East. And how do the western oligarchs intend to survive when they are the enemies of both their citizens and foreign nations such as Russia and China?

Seems to me that before the US would roll out the Stazi state the western oligarchs would need to have Russia and China in on their plan to rule the world beforehand.

Otherwise the Western oligarchs and the nations, resources they control will end up toast.

Max Keiser says we have returned to the de-globalization phase and I think to some extent that is correct but it can't be the Stazi NWO state othewise the West becomes fair game for the rest of the world. Nations that or under occupation do not provide much in the way of protection for oligarchs. Along with de-globalism the nations will have to return to national identity and the rule of law and order or they will not survive.

I guess I don't get it. Maybe the oligarchs are indeed still suffering from the inbreeding of generations gone by.

 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 05:23 | 4524494 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

I appreciate your post, raising many questions about the state of the world and who are the drivers of change. My take is it has been exponentially challenged by the interconnected nature of economic imperatives that shape the dialogue whether it is bounded by nationality or by international intermediation. I have avoided the catch-all phrase, 'gobalisation' as I think it is dissembling and a tool for those who wish to gloss over the historical and very dirigiste past that seems to be prologue.

We should all applaud and support the rule of law. And we should do the same for those, however challenged, to speak for their future, without qualification, for the life they wish to lead, and like us all, may God willing, may it come to fruition. 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 06:56 | 4524541 rationaldemocracy
rationaldemocracy's picture

 That's a good question that is often ignored. I will tell you what, if Putin was really worried about NATO he would have placed nukes in Venezuela a long, long time ago...

In my view all the leaders of every country are simply fooling us regular people..they are putting on a show for us like the one going on in crimea right now..Putin is no nationalist.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 07:31 | 4524572 negative rates
negative rates's picture

We get that, and there is a lot more you need to know.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 12:19 | 4524996 riot-police
riot-police's picture

Well if you take a really big view of things. People are still people, with a percieved inherent need for security, stability, food, safety, etc.

There is a long enduring idea that globaly everyting society loves and trusts in will be destroyed. This will cause everyone no matter of race or nationality, to embrace a global "king to rule over them".

All that really needs to happen is for worldwide pain and suffering to endure for a time. Then people will embrace the first one to claim to make it all better or fix everything.

For me, one piece of the puzzle which really hits home, is the heights which global survielance has reached.

 

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 06:04 | 4524511 geotrader
geotrader's picture

Bullshit!  I was there in October and saw it with my own 2 eyes.  Chinese 'independence' holiday ain't no joke.  $100/night went to $250/night and everything sold out.  Chinese economy is ridiculous.   

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 06:36 | 4524529 Hephaestus
Hephaestus's picture

Jeeez what if China did it on purpose? They could have told the moneychangers one number and released another! What would stop them - honest accounting!?!  Barry O's face must be getting numb from all these slaps.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 06:53 | 4524536 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Deficit should qualify the Yuan for reserve currency.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 09:09 | 4524651 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

It was the smog,

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 10:09 | 4524712 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

This is a big story and most Americans don't have a clue as they watch world markets work higher. Fast growth tends to mask flaws and weakness within a system, and China has been growing like a weed for years. To make things worse many of the investment decisions were driven by politics.

This has created massive overcapacity. Money has been poorly allocated and often shoveled into deep holes like ghost cities and bridges to nowhere. The article below looks at how and why China is now drowning in overcapacity and debt.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/china-land-of-overcapacity-and-de...

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 11:03 | 4524832 ms8172
ms8172's picture

When did this news come out??  Was this last night... I thought their markets are closed?  Can someone let me know.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 11:54 | 4524936 Conax
Conax's picture

China took our jerbs!  Next they will want their money back!

Time for a nuclear exchange- we exchange a few ICBMs for our old jerbs back.

Fair dinkum.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 14:07 | 4525231 gdpetti
gdpetti's picture

Meanwhile in Tibet (and elsewhere), the glaciers are growing... "Scientists announce “remarkable” glacier growth on Tibetan plateau that “is challenging to explain.” iceagenow.info/2014/03/glaciers-growing-tibet/

But that is, as the G-man would say, 'inconvenient'... sorry for the interruption, back to your usual scheduled economic market collapse timer... just don't forget one affects the other... and none of it is 'remarkable' if you have a clue about what's really going on.. such as EU theory, geologic history, etc.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 14:49 | 4525336 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Hey, isn't Europe China's largest export market?  But Mario told me everything was OK in Europe.  I don't understand...

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 15:54 | 4525462 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

What was the largest increase in Import?

 


Peter Schiff and GATA's Bill Murthy: The Real Value of Gold

  It is time to listen and remind ourselves about the real value of Gold and what is coming next with all geopolitical games unfolding at the crucial levels for US Dollar and Gold markets. China is the major subject of conversation here again and Russia is already talking about the asymmetrical retaliation to the imposed by the West sanctions around the Ukraine situation. Gold manipulation can not go foreverwith China buying the record amount of Gold officially and who knows what are the real numbers in its state-level military plan to accumulate Gold for the De-Dollarisation reset?

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/peter-schiff-and-gatas-bill-murthy-r...

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 20:43 | 4526353 WMM II
WMM II's picture

"All that apparent demand and yet the price is collapsing - not good for the credit unwind"

 

looking at the copper chart to which you refer, the jun-decd 2013 section is less steep than the jun-dec 2011 one. i don't know what happened then.

just curious.

 

:)

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