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Five Years Of "Progress"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with no comment...

 

 

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

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Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:23 | 4523304 Platinum
Platinum's picture

The only question, is how much longer before we reach the top of the mountain. Then it becomes a skydive.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:27 | 4523315 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Looks like a good time to sell some stocks.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:34 | 4523344 National Blessing
National Blessing's picture

There's no progress.  The entire world is a shit hamburger.  Bitches.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:49 | 4523385 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Korean auto parts.  Fishez.

Doubt me?  Come to Peru and see Hyundai.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:41 | 4523365 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

NASDQ looks to be rolling over...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:34 | 4523340 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Extend the chart back 100 years and call it- One Hundred Years of Progressive Fiat to see the true height of the cliff.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 14:07 | 4525234 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Let me get a drink first.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:31 | 4523386 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Since March '09 - S&P 500 is up 250%+...how was this achieved? Fed, "foreign", and domestic balance sheets.

Take a look @ the US Treasury Outstanding Public debt (OPD) which grew from $6.5 T ('09) ---> $12.5 T (present)

 Who purchased this?

 "foreigners"

3.2 T ---> 5.8 T (90% in Notes/Bonds)

Fed

$300 B (primarily bills) ---> $4.2 T ($2.2 T notes/bonds, $0 bills)

 Domestic sources

'09 $2,542 ($500 B bills, $2 T in Notes/bonds) ---> '13 $4,142 ($2.14 T in Bills, $2 T Notes/Bonds)

Of the entire $10 T of US OPD notes/bonds, 80% are now owned by Fed & "foreigners". Despite the doubling of OPD, domestic sources (everything ex-Fed, ie. states, pensions, insurers, mutual funds, etc.) on net purchased zero OPD notes/bonds. This meant these Trillions in new assets were freed up for equities, CRE, RE, etc.

 WHAT NOW???

Now the Fed, who purchased over 100%+ of all OPD notes / bonds in '13 (70% of all new issuance plus mopping up significant rollover) is tapering new purchases (to zero? no word yet on a wind down of balance sheet). Domestic sources show no signs of buying low yielding notes/bonds new issuance or rollover OPD at anything near these yields.

This means all new issuance and all loose rollover OPD must be purchased by "foreigners" and presumably @ continuing historically low yields...b/c if yields begin rising, "foreigners" and Fed will take large losses on their holdings. I guess it's up to these "foreigners" to continue buying ever more debt at ever lower yields to avoid a potential rate shock? But is this likely as US runs smaller trade and budget deficits (less $'s to recycle)???  If "foreigners" continue to purchase despite the smaller trade/budget deficits, can we simply revise the category' as "Fed QE/Foreigner  shadow QE", "perhaps, maybe real Foreigners", and Domestic.

Absent the Fed or "foreigners" who bought all new notes / bonds OPD since '09, domestic sources @ record levels of leverage would need to sell risk assets to purchase Treasury's likely @ rising yields...anybody believe this will happen?

Definition of "foreigners"...TIC report admits "foreign" ownership only denotes country from which Treasury was purchased, not nationaliy of who purchased it or where "money" came from...or who actually owns it.  I'm not even sure if it's "illegal" (black letter law) for the Fed to purchase additional Treasury's via Foreign locations (ie, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, etc.)...anybody know???

 1/  Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and non-marketable bills, bonds, and notes reported monthly under the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system. Holdings of Treasury bonds and notes are reported on TIC Form SLT, "Aggregate Holdings of Long-Term Securities by U.S. and Foreign Residents," including preliminary SLT data for the most recent month. The data in this table are collected primarily from U.S.-based custodians. Since U.S. securities held in overseas custody accounts may not be attributed to the actual owners, the data may not provide a precise accounting of individual country ownership of Treasury securities (see TIC FAQ #7 at: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticf...).

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:38 | 4523534 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"Illegal???"

What's that word mean?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 21:48 | 4523741 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

suck bird of noble stature

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:25 | 4523311 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Smells like recovery.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:54 | 4523403 knukles
knukles's picture

Did you just fart?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:26 | 4523314 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

"FREE FALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLIN..."

Tom Petty


Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:26 | 4523490 Osmium
Osmium's picture

And all this time I thought he was singing "Free Baaaallllin"

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:28 | 4523317 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

And income would be lower if it wasn't for 97% of the wealth going to the 1%.

Proud to have NEVER voted in my life.  I have always known what bullshit it all is.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:46 | 4523382 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

ALL that growth in income is going to the top 1% - and most of that is going to the top 0.01%

The only 'growth' in income seen by most Americans isn't even keeping up with the REAL rate of inflation.  

 

For example - JPMorgan employees are - at BEST - getting 'cost of living' increases (and a good number are getting laid off) while Jamie and the top guys are raking in MILLIONS.   

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:51 | 4523395 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

All lies.  The government workers and "those people" are getting all this wealth. 

Who do you think gets 99% of the 2 trillion dollars the government spends every year?

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:02 | 4523427 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

You get that money.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 21:51 | 4523748 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Good for you.  Never try.  Absolutely don't run for election.  You might get votes and have to do stuff... and... stuff.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:29 | 4523322 EconomicGenocide
EconomicGenocide's picture

A lot of people in that yellow line are going to start eating people in that blue line once they find out the people in the red line took away from the people in the green line!!

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:30 | 4523327 Black Warrior W...
Black Warrior Waterdog's picture

Green is the new Blue.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:31 | 4523333 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

"A lot of people in that yellow line are going to start eating people in that blue line"

 

Bankster, the other white meat.  Even cheap $12 a bottle screw cap wine will soften up the fillet of man, if ya soak it overnight in the fridge.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:50 | 4523393 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Long Pig!

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:33 | 4523338 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

Shizzmoney: "Proud to have NEVER voted in my life.  I have always known what bullshit it all is."

 

Good for you, sorry to say you're still getting assraped, but at least you're not consenting to it.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:38 | 4523354 Protokletos
Protokletos's picture

What a waste of article space

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:39 | 4523359 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

There is absolutly NO relationship between FED Assets and the S&P.....

LOL

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:52 | 4523398 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Correlation does not imply causation.*

 

*except when it does

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 14:10 | 4525237 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

It does raise some questions...for anybody not glued to the bewb tewb watching Honey Boo Boo.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:42 | 4523368 fzrkid
fzrkid's picture

Had i bought the market 5 yrs ago instead of waiting for the 'event' to happen I would have more paper money in my account that I could use to buy some physical assets

 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:43 | 4523373 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Seems like they pretty effectively kept the Yellow line and the Green line from getting any of that Red line. 

It all went to the Blue line.

And that is my line

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:43 | 4523376 xamax
xamax's picture

Who really cares about the personal income curve of these 99% idiotic people who dont have a clue of anything ?
I am in the 1% and happy with the curve of the s&p's. But I spend also a lot.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:56 | 4523397 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Unless you can afford to live behind castle walls and pay a coterie of guards (and even if you can) , you SHOULD care because eventually, when treated badly enough, the serfs DO rise up and kill their 'lords and masters'.  And too often when that happens, even the 'good' ones that treated their serfs 'well' get killed along with the truly evil ones.

And yes, I agree with you in that a significant number of the 99% - maybe as high as 10% - are pretty useless lazy leeches but the sad thing is that THOSE are the ones that turn into the WORST thugs when deprived of their minimum level of 'comfort'.   When you starve the middle class and eliminate any form of hope for the masses, they are all too willing to follow anyone that promises better.  Get a sociopath locked out of the 1% who has some real talent - or even an idealist who believes in what's right and good - and you're vastly outnumbered.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:40 | 4523540 xamax
xamax's picture

Raising lots of gud points....though most of the 1% have a plan B where to go in case of riots.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 21:11 | 4523634 RaiZH
RaiZH's picture

If there's a plan B just to try and survive... was it all really worth it? 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 19:48 | 4523387 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

The Elysium Class is composed of the smarter-n-savvier people we should respect their success. 

This is a nation that has always prided itself on worshiping those who are the most-fit.

Survival of the fittest is a bitch (bitchez) but if you bitch about it you're nothing but a bitch (bitchez).

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:03 | 4523432 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Elysium...gay-ass Progressive propagandist drivel.  It's like a dream commercial for Obamacare coupled with a class-warfare meme.  Save everyone! Heal the poor! For free! What a useless cunt-ragged sack of shit you are.  You're like AnAnonymous without the slanted keyboard.  Go fuck Matt Damon and your Hollyweird dream team you sniveling twat. 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:09 | 4523449 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Huh,  looks like I got some points on that one.  

I'll keep pushing it, thanks.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:27 | 4523493 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Sorry kripsy-monkey-butt.

But just because Matt is a progressive asshole and the socialist solution in the movie is not what is needed, at least the target is well defined and you're just pissed you and your kind don't have the balls or the ability to do anything about it,  unlike Matt's character in the movie.

 

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 22:20 | 4523847 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

More like future-porn for our progressive powers that be.  Paging Mr. Soros...

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 22:28 | 4523876 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

You're an Oligarchial whore. There was a class war, but it's over now. The neoliberals won.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:45 | 4523569 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

That chart looks good.  Everything is going well with no end in sight.

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 20:53 | 4523590 NoLongerABagHolder
NoLongerABagHolder's picture

I have a comment for you...... why would you expect the market to stop going up until QE ends? You pretty much know you will conitnue to have your panties up in a wad as the market rises, until QE ends.

 

Big deal

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 21:39 | 4523712 Nexus789
Nexus789's picture

The financial system will soon be like a banker taking a swan dive of a tall building

Fri, 03/07/2014 - 22:05 | 4523789 jim249
jim249's picture

A bull market? I think more of a bullshit market.

Sat, 03/08/2014 - 12:59 | 4525066 ayy_bizzle
ayy_bizzle's picture

No comment needed.

The rich get richer,the poor get handouts, and the middle class keep scraping by in a never ending corrupt government.

...moving to Switzerland.

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