Five Years Of "Progress"

Tyler Durden's picture

Presented with no comment...

 

 

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

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Platinum's picture

The only question, is how much longer before we reach the top of the mountain. Then it becomes a skydive.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Looks like a good time to sell some stocks.

National Blessing's picture

There's no progress.  The entire world is a shit hamburger.  Bitches.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Korean auto parts.  Fishez.

Doubt me?  Come to Peru and see Hyundai.

LooseLee's picture

NASDQ looks to be rolling over...

Harbanger's picture

Extend the chart back 100 years and call it- One Hundred Years of Progressive Fiat to see the true height of the cliff.

Ham-bone's picture

Since March '09 - S&P 500 is up 250%+...how was this achieved? Fed, "foreign", and domestic balance sheets.

Take a look @ the US Treasury Outstanding Public debt (OPD) which grew from $6.5 T ('09) ---> $12.5 T (present)

 Who purchased this?

 "foreigners"

3.2 T ---> 5.8 T (90% in Notes/Bonds)

Fed

$300 B (primarily bills) ---> $4.2 T ($2.2 T notes/bonds, $0 bills)

 Domestic sources

'09 $2,542 ($500 B bills, $2 T in Notes/bonds) ---> '13 $4,142 ($2.14 T in Bills, $2 T Notes/Bonds)

Of the entire $10 T of US OPD notes/bonds, 80% are now owned by Fed & "foreigners". Despite the doubling of OPD, domestic sources (everything ex-Fed, ie. states, pensions, insurers, mutual funds, etc.) on net purchased zero OPD notes/bonds. This meant these Trillions in new assets were freed up for equities, CRE, RE, etc.

 WHAT NOW???

Now the Fed, who purchased over 100%+ of all OPD notes / bonds in '13 (70% of all new issuance plus mopping up significant rollover) is tapering new purchases (to zero? no word yet on a wind down of balance sheet). Domestic sources show no signs of buying low yielding notes/bonds new issuance or rollover OPD at anything near these yields.

This means all new issuance and all loose rollover OPD must be purchased by "foreigners" and presumably @ continuing historically low yields...b/c if yields begin rising, "foreigners" and Fed will take large losses on their holdings. I guess it's up to these "foreigners" to continue buying ever more debt at ever lower yields to avoid a potential rate shock? But is this likely as US runs smaller trade and budget deficits (less $'s to recycle)???  If "foreigners" continue to purchase despite the smaller trade/budget deficits, can we simply revise the category' as "Fed QE/Foreigner  shadow QE", "perhaps, maybe real Foreigners", and Domestic.

Absent the Fed or "foreigners" who bought all new notes / bonds OPD since '09, domestic sources @ record levels of leverage would need to sell risk assets to purchase Treasury's likely @ rising yields...anybody believe this will happen?

Definition of "foreigners"...TIC report admits "foreign" ownership only denotes country from which Treasury was purchased, not nationaliy of who purchased it or where "money" came from...or who actually owns it.  I'm not even sure if it's "illegal" (black letter law) for the Fed to purchase additional Treasury's via Foreign locations (ie, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, etc.)...anybody know???

 1/  Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and non-marketable bills, bonds, and notes reported monthly under the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system. Holdings of Treasury bonds and notes are reported on TIC Form SLT, "Aggregate Holdings of Long-Term Securities by U.S. and Foreign Residents," including preliminary SLT data for the most recent month. The data in this table are collected primarily from U.S.-based custodians. Since U.S. securities held in overseas custody accounts may not be attributed to the actual owners, the data may not provide a precise accounting of individual country ownership of Treasury securities (see TIC FAQ #7 at: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticf...).

NotApplicable's picture

"Illegal???"

What's that word mean?

Meat Hammer's picture

Smells like recovery.

Bay of Pigs's picture

"FREE FALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLIN..."

Tom Petty


Osmium's picture

And all this time I thought he was singing "Free Baaaallllin"

Shizzmoney's picture

And income would be lower if it wasn't for 97% of the wealth going to the 1%.

Proud to have NEVER voted in my life.  I have always known what bullshit it all is.

cynicalskeptic's picture

ALL that growth in income is going to the top 1% - and most of that is going to the top 0.01%

The only 'growth' in income seen by most Americans isn't even keeping up with the REAL rate of inflation.  

 

For example - JPMorgan employees are - at BEST - getting 'cost of living' increases (and a good number are getting laid off) while Jamie and the top guys are raking in MILLIONS.   

NOTaREALmerican's picture

All lies.  The government workers and "those people" are getting all this wealth. 

Who do you think gets 99% of the 2 trillion dollars the government spends every year?

TheReplacement's picture

Good for you.  Never try.  Absolutely don't run for election.  You might get votes and have to do stuff... and... stuff.

EconomicGenocide's picture

A lot of people in that yellow line are going to start eating people in that blue line once they find out the people in the red line took away from the people in the green line!!

Black Warrior Waterdog's picture

Green is the new Blue.

Duc888's picture

 

 

"A lot of people in that yellow line are going to start eating people in that blue line"

 

Bankster, the other white meat.  Even cheap $12 a bottle screw cap wine will soften up the fillet of man, if ya soak it overnight in the fridge.

Duc888's picture

 

Shizzmoney: "Proud to have NEVER voted in my life.  I have always known what bullshit it all is."

 

Good for you, sorry to say you're still getting assraped, but at least you're not consenting to it.

Protokletos's picture

What a waste of article space

RaceToTheBottom's picture

There is absolutly NO relationship between FED Assets and the S&P.....

LOL

McMolotov's picture

Correlation does not imply causation.*

 

*except when it does

A Nanny Moose's picture

It does raise some questions...for anybody not glued to the bewb tewb watching Honey Boo Boo.

fzrkid's picture

Had i bought the market 5 yrs ago instead of waiting for the 'event' to happen I would have more paper money in my account that I could use to buy some physical assets

 

RaceToTheBottom's picture

Seems like they pretty effectively kept the Yellow line and the Green line from getting any of that Red line. 

It all went to the Blue line.

And that is my line

xamax's picture

Who really cares about the personal income curve of these 99% idiotic people who dont have a clue of anything ?
I am in the 1% and happy with the curve of the s&p's. But I spend also a lot.

cynicalskeptic's picture

Unless you can afford to live behind castle walls and pay a coterie of guards (and even if you can) , you SHOULD care because eventually, when treated badly enough, the serfs DO rise up and kill their 'lords and masters'.  And too often when that happens, even the 'good' ones that treated their serfs 'well' get killed along with the truly evil ones.

And yes, I agree with you in that a significant number of the 99% - maybe as high as 10% - are pretty useless lazy leeches but the sad thing is that THOSE are the ones that turn into the WORST thugs when deprived of their minimum level of 'comfort'.   When you starve the middle class and eliminate any form of hope for the masses, they are all too willing to follow anyone that promises better.  Get a sociopath locked out of the 1% who has some real talent - or even an idealist who believes in what's right and good - and you're vastly outnumbered.

xamax's picture

Raising lots of gud points....though most of the 1% have a plan B where to go in case of riots.

RaiZH's picture

If there's a plan B just to try and survive... was it all really worth it? 

NOTaREALmerican's picture

The Elysium Class is composed of the smarter-n-savvier people we should respect their success. 

This is a nation that has always prided itself on worshiping those who are the most-fit.

Survival of the fittest is a bitch (bitchez) but if you bitch about it you're nothing but a bitch (bitchez).

krispkritter's picture

Elysium...gay-ass Progressive propagandist drivel.  It's like a dream commercial for Obamacare coupled with a class-warfare meme.  Save everyone! Heal the poor! For free! What a useless cunt-ragged sack of shit you are.  You're like AnAnonymous without the slanted keyboard.  Go fuck Matt Damon and your Hollyweird dream team you sniveling twat. 

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Huh,  looks like I got some points on that one.  

I'll keep pushing it, thanks.

Jumbotron's picture

Sorry kripsy-monkey-butt.

But just because Matt is a progressive asshole and the socialist solution in the movie is not what is needed, at least the target is well defined and you're just pissed you and your kind don't have the balls or the ability to do anything about it,  unlike Matt's character in the movie.

 

TheReplacement's picture

More like future-porn for our progressive powers that be.  Paging Mr. Soros...

Accounting101's picture

You're an Oligarchial whore. There was a class war, but it's over now. The neoliberals won.

thamnosma's picture

That chart looks good.  Everything is going well with no end in sight.

NoLongerABagHolder's picture

I have a comment for you...... why would you expect the market to stop going up until QE ends? You pretty much know you will conitnue to have your panties up in a wad as the market rises, until QE ends.

 

Big deal

Nexus789's picture

The financial system will soon be like a banker taking a swan dive of a tall building

jim249's picture

A bull market? I think more of a bullshit market.

ayy_bizzle's picture

No comment needed.

The rich get richer,the poor get handouts, and the middle class keep scraping by in a never ending corrupt government.

...moving to Switzerland.