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Previewing Today's 1.5 Million Payrolls Seasonal Adjustment
Today's consensus estimate for the non-farm payroll is for a 149K increase broken down as follows among some select banks:
- Bank of America 115K
- Deutsche Bank 120K
- Goldman Sachs 125K
- Citigroup 135K
- JP Morgan 140K
- Barclays 150K
- UBS 165K
- HSBC 167K
Why is the expectation so low? Why cold weather of course - the same cold weather that supposedly impacted December and January data. Then again, one wonders just what is the seasonal adjustment factor for if not to adjust for the, gasp, seasons.
So when one puts the February actual number in the context of its average adjustment over the past decade, what does one get? Simple - a boost of 1.5 million "jobs" which exsit nowhere in the real world but in some Arima-X-13 spreadsheet.
The chart below shows what the average seasonal factor by month has been in the past 10 years.
In other words, today's entire pick up in jobs is one tenth of the overall seasonal adjustment factor, which as we know by now is woefully broken since it is so incapable of grasping the simple concept of cold and snow in the winter.
And now you know why today's number is once again meaningless and only there to stimulate HFT algos into buying whether the news is good or bad.
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I guess if they set their expectations low enough they won't be dissapointed.
Does it fuckin matter??? I know the only sure thing is Dow +150pts
Fundamentals don't matter. Jobs don't matter. Right from wrong doesn't matter.
Because Obama
obama's minimum wage increase will kill 500k jobs says the CBO.....
Dollar down, gold slammed, sure, why not?
Silver worth 2% less than it was 5 minutes ago. Makes perfect sense.
No just the worthless script that people keep confusing with actual money. Measure yor metals in weight only and the noise dies down a bit.
175k! booyaaah!! bubble on baby, bubble on! let's see if we can't get the Fed to panic and cut 20billion at the next meeting!!
Standing on the corner watching all the jobs go by
Did they get the memo from Obama? Gotta have a good number for all those people signing up for Obamacare...they gotta have money to pay for their "FREE" healthcare.
The only job that concerns me is the elusive blow job after 16 years of marriage. I've lowered my expectations too.
Here, you can have one on me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBG3hBBiYLk
What's the difference between a new job and a new wife after 6 months?
The job still sucks.
i swear futures go higher regardless.
new month, same bullshit
Bingo amigo
well..."the markets will do what the markets will do" too.
"blame it on the jobs market" would be ironic indeed.
Food prices have definitely shot up here locally "and we are a big food producer" up here. Same is true for Pennsylvania.
Obviously the latter is a staggeringly large producer of energy, coal and steel as well.
175k, ha ha ha
When that cunt Yellen stops pumping $65B (leveraged 40X) per month into these bloatus markets, reality will set in.
In the meantime, Yellen has menopause again - and as we all know, this is bullish.
S&Ps up 1% today.
and sure enough futures r higher, shocker.
175,000 is being made out to be like we r in a golden age, how amazing how low expectations have become
I see that the monkeys are hammering away at the PM's early this morning. Are they front-running some bad numbers today in anticipation of a PM's spike after the bad news comes out, so they're hammering them down now before the open????
Looks like it dude by the 10 year is creeping back up of late also (2.8% now)....and with Oil over 100 and other food commodities up here too now...PLUS Yuan and Ruble weaker now too...something just dont jive here.
well...whatever the reason for the early morning Friday beat-down, I'll take it!!!
We got us another sale on phyzz, folks, so stack up.
WTF is going on with spot Gold ??? Down from 1350 to 1339 in seconds. Large contract must have changed hands at 8:30 EST.
Anyone ???
hah 175 K. Lowered expectations are easy to beat.
How many ghost jobs did they create
Isn't it funny how Gold gets monkey hammered none stop and yet the DOW, SPY and so on the losses are contained, what a fucken joke this all is.
Last falls footings are ready for the framing or interest is not what your parents paid even if it goes up your rate is fix DONT WORRY THIS IS THE VERY BEST TIME EVVVVVER